July 4 2014 salmon management letter lfa

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Fisheries and Oceans Canada

Peches et Oceans Canada

Jennifer Nener Area Director, Lower Fraser area #3-100 Annacis Parkway Delta, Be V3M 6A2 Telephone Fax

(604) 666-6478

(604) 666-8729

July 4,2014

To: First Nations Chiefs, Councilors and Fishery Representatives, Re: 2014 Sockeye and Coho Management The purpose of this letter is to provide an update on the management approach for Fraser sockeye fisheries for the 2014 season and some infonnation on the management of Interior Fraser coho. Consultations over the past four months have resulted in the following approach being adopted by the Department of Fisheries and Oceans.

The adopted escapement plan for Fraser River sockeye is as follows: Management Unit Early Stuart Early Summer Summer Late

Low Abundance ER 10% 10% 10% 200/0-30%

TAM Cap 60% 65% 65% 65%

Lower Fishery Reference Point 108,000 180,000 1,020,000 1,100,000

Upper Fishery Reference Point 270,000 514,000 2,914,000 3,143,000

Pre-season MA 0.86 0.43 0.11 0.28*

* Late run pMA used for pre-season modelling. FRP to determine pMA for in-season & methodology.

The Low Abundance Exploitation Rate (LAER) (column 2) is applied in the case where there are insufficient fish to meet escapement targets while taking into account the management adjustment (MA) or in the case when the allowable ER after the MA applied is very low. The intention of the Low Abundance Exploitation Rate is to allow for limited fisheries directed on more abundant co-migrating stocks or species. This provision is not intended to create directed harvest opportunities with the exception of limited tenninal fisheries. The Department may also consider requests for limited足 participation fisheries for unplanned events only.

Column 3 outlines the Total Allowable Mortality cap. Please note there is a change from recent years when all management units had a Total Allowable Mortality (TAM) cap of 60% (ref. column 3). For 2014, the TAM cap has been increased to 65% for the Early Summer, Summer and Late run sockeye management units. Total Allowable Mortality includes mortality calculated from all sources (i.e. directed and incidental fisheries mortalities plus adjustments to estimated survival to the spawning grounds calculated through the management adjustment).

The Lower Fishery Reference Point (column 4) describes the numerical escapement target when the run size is between the Upper and Lower Fishery Reference Points.

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When the nm size is below the Lower Fishery Reference Point, the escapement target is the nm size, but it is recognized that there will be some incidental harvest in the form of the Low. Abundance Exploitation Rate (LAER) as described above.

The Upper Fishery Reference Point (column 5) describes the point above which the Total Allowable Mortality plateaus (i.e. the allowable mortality stays at 60 or 65%).

The percent management adjustment (PMA) (column 6) is multiplied by the escapement goal and the resulting number of fish added to the escapement goal at Mission assists in the achievement of escapement goals on the spawning grounds. The pMA for each management group is based on historical relationships between the temperature and discharge or the timing of that group and the discrepancy between the number of fish counted at Mission (in the lower Fraser River) and the number counted on the spawning escapement grounds. The values in the table above are pre-season estimates based on historic information, but these will be updated with actual in-season information on migratory conditions in the river and observed migration timing into the Fraser.

Fraser sockeye test fisheries started on June 21 st. These test fisheries allow for an in足 season abundance estimate to be generated. In-season estimates of actual returns should be available starting the second week in July. Your local Resource Manager will provide you with details on the best way to access this information in your area.

Early Stuart Sockeye In recent years, there has rarely been an allowable ER on Early Stuart sockeye. Window closures and other fishing restrictions have been required in commercial, recreational and First Nations fisheries and any incidental impacts have been managed within the LAER indicated by the escapement plan.

For 2014, pre-season estimates of anticipated abundance and MAs suggest that there may be an allowable ER of 26% on Early Stuart sockeye for all groups, including test fisheries. A rolling three week window closure, based on nm timing of the Early Stuart sockeye migration through various fisheries has been implemented until in-season abundance and/or management adjustments indicate that there is an allowable harvest amount for Early Stuart. Any fishery impacting Early Stuart sockeye will be managed in a precautionary manner, with only low-impact fisheries allowed prior to positive in足 season confirmation of allowable ER on this stock.

Planning for fisheries on this stock group will be informed by recommendations received from First Nations and sharing arrangements that have been applied in several recent years (see "Sharing Arrangements" below).

Appendix 2 describes the start and end dates of the window closure referenced above in the various fishing locations assuming a peak migration date in Area 20 of July 4th. If in足 season assessment suggests that the timing of Early Stuart sockeye is different than the pre-season prediction or the fish are delayed in river due to high river discharge, the

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dates of the closure may be modified accordingly. Resource Managers in your area will be contacting you to advise of the specifics of Early Stuart Management as infonnation becomes available (i.e. in-season abundance information, the status of the window closure and proposed FSC fishing plans, if any).

Early Summer Sockeye

Based on the 2014 pre-season forecast (PSO) and preliminary pre-season management adjustment, directed FSC harvest opportunities are likely. Potential harvest opportunities for this management group will be detennined when more in-season infonnation is available.

Summers

Given the pre-season forecast for Summer Run sockeye it is expected that fisheries will be designed to target these stocks.

Lates

2014 is a dominant year for late run sockeye. Given the pre-season forecast, it is expected that fisheries will be designed to target these stocks. However, these fisheries may be limited by constraints on Cultus Lake sockeye which remains a stock of concern.

Management of Cultus Lake sockeye will be based on the Cultus Lake sockeye recovery objectives. For management purposes, the Cultus abundance, ER and en-route mortality will be assumed to be the same as those for similarly timed Late run stocks caught seaward of the Vedder River confluence.

Nimpkish and Sakinaw

In the marine area, harvest related measures continue to be required for Nimpkish River and Sakinaw Lake sockeye. For Nimpkish origin sockeye these measures include sockeye non-retention in First Nations FSC fisheries occurring in Area 12 above Lewis Point until late July. For Sakinaw origin sockeye, these measures include restrictions in First Nations FSC fisheries prior to the last week of July in Johnstone Strait.

Sharing Arrangements

The forecast of all sockeye returning to the Fraser system in 2014, ranges from 7.3 M (Pl0) to 72.SM (P90) with a median forecast of22.9 M (PSO). The detailed forecast is provided in Appendix 3.

Although the pSO forecast for Fraser Sockeye in 2014 is much greater than the pSO forecast in 2013, actual returns as well as environmental conditions are highly uncertain and the constraints of weaker management groups could impact the ability of First Nations to access available FSC allocations. The Department continues to seek advice

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For Early Stuart sockeye, the Department intends to use a plan that has been implemented for the past several years to manage small catches or impacts unless provided with a revised approach which is agreed to by a significant majority of Fraser River First Nations. This sharing plan is attached as Appendix 1.

For all other sockeye management groups, catch will be split between the marine areas, lower Fraser and BC Interior using the licence harvest target shares to create a proportionate split unless provided with a revised approach which is agreed to by a significant majority of First Nations.

Consultation is currently underway at the request of some First Nations to increase the target share in some areas. These consultations could result in a modification of the proportionate split from that used in 2013 which was 260 :449:300 (South Coast: Lower Fraser: BC Interior).

DFO continues to seek input from First Nations on specifics of sharing where a management group is a constraint to harvest for a more abundant management group.

Various approaches have been used in past years. At this time, the Department plans to use the proportional split described above with consideration of access to the particular component stocks in the aggregate and the catch to date for each of the three areas (South Coast, Lower Fraser and BC Interior).

Interior Fraser Coho For 2014 only, the objective for Interior Fraser coho (including Thompson River coho) is to limit the Canadian exploitation rate to 16% or less. For FSC fisheries this will mean the retention of coho by-catch in fisheries directed on other species, relaxation of the in足 river coho window closure dates by two weeks and additional directed harvest opportunities in tributaries. Please contact your local Resource Manager to discuss implications specific to your fishery.

The Department continues to work closely with First Nations and other harvesters to develop fishing plans and is appreciative of the support received by First Nations. If you have further concerns or would like to discuss these proposed actions further, please contact the Resource Manager in your area.

Sincerely,

~l: YkAi Area Director Fisheries & Oceans Canada Lower Fraser area

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Cc:

Debra Sneddon Terri Bonnet Sheldon Evers

N Area Chief, Resource Management, Lower Fraser area Aboriginal Affairs Advisor, Lower Fraser area Resource Manager, Lower Fraser area

Attachments: 3 1. Appendix 1: Early Stuart Sharing Tables 2. Appendix 2: 2014 Management Action Dates for Early Stuart Conservation Measures 3. Appendix 3: 2014 Fraser Sockeye Forecast

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Appendix 1

Early Stuart Sharing Tables Table 1: No available TAC (fisheries will be limited to the Low Abundance Exploitation Rate)

The Low Abundance Exploitation Rate for Early Stuart sockeye is 10%.

Allowable T AC is Zero Run size is 50K, esc goal + MA > run size (i.e., FSC target = LAER) FSC Target

5000

First Nations Groups

1st priority allocation Carrier-Sekani Tribal Council (CSTC)

share

example

20.41%

Remaining allocation Carrier-Sekani Tribal Council (CSTC) Lheidli T'enneh (LTB) Carrier-Chilcotin (CCTC) NSTC/TNG/ESK Shuswap Fisheries Commission (SFC) Stl'atl'imx Nation (STA) NNTC/NTA Lower Fraser FNs Above Port Mann Lower Fraser FNs Below Port Mann

1,020

3,980 (see above)

1.54% 0.51% 15.38% 0.51% 25.64% 25.64% 25.64% 5.13%

61 20 612 20 1,020 1,020 1,020 204

* This number was derived in 2012 by using the table on the following page for TAC less than <24,500. 5,000 was divided by 24,500 to get the CSTC/Terminal percentage of 20.4%. For example, at a run size of 50K with a zero management adjustment, the escapement target would be 50K, the 10% allowable ER would be 5K and the CSTC portion would be 1,020 sockeye.

The remaining 3,980 sockeye would be split according to the percentages listed above).

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Table 2: Canadian TAC is 24,500 or less.

FSC Allocation <24,500 Share equals FSC Target minus 1st priority allocation

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First Nations Groups FSC Target 1st Drioritv allocation Carrier-Sekani Tribal Council (CSTC) RemaininiLallocation Carrier-Sekani Tribal Council (CSTC) Lheidli T'enneh (LTB) Carrier-Chilcotin (CCTC) NSTC/TNGIESK Shuswap Fisheries Commission (SFC) Stl'atl'imx Nation (ST A) NNTCINTA Lower Fraser FNs Above Port Mann Lower Fraser FNs Below Port Mann

Share

Example 20,000

5,000

5,000

0.00% 1.54% 0.51% 15.38% 0.51% 25 .64% 25 .64% 25.64% 5.13%

15000 0 231 77 2,308 77 3,846 3,846 3,846 769

Table 3: Canadian TAC is greater than 24,500 FSC Allocation >24,500 Share equals min. target plus XV/o ofFSC Target >24,500 First Nations Groups

min. targd

Share

FSC Target

Examj!le 30,000

1st priority allocation Carrier-Sekani Tribal Council (CSTC)

5,000

5,000

5,000

Remaining allocation Carrier-Sekani Tribal Council (CSTC) Lheidli T'enneh (LTB) Carrier-Chilcotin (CCTC) NSTC/TNGIESK Shuswap Fisheries Commission (SFC) Stl'atl'imx Nation (ST A) NNTCINTA Lower Fraser FNs Above Port Mann Lower Fraser FNs Below Port Mann

0 300 100 3,000 100 5,000 5,000 5,000 1,000

5.00% 1.00% 1.00% 13.00% 1.00% 13.00% 13.00% 40.00% 13.00%

275 355 155 3,715 155 5,715 5,715 7,200 1,715

Note: FSC Harvest of Early Stuart sockeye is minimal but does occur in marine areas in many years and is expected to occur in the future.

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Appendix 2: 2014 Management Action Dates for Early Stuart Conservation Measures Early Stuart Run Size= A20 Peak=

Printed on:

299,000 4-Jul

Management Action

Actual Dates Area

Start (date, time)

End (date, time)

Area 127

open July 14,7 dlweek

Area 11

open July 14, 7 dlweek

Area 12

open July 14, 7 dlweek

Area 13

open July 14, 7 dlweek

Area 20

open July 14,7 dlweek

Areas 18 and 29

24-Jun Midnight

Jul 18 - noon

I-Jul6pm

26-Ju16 pm

FNs FSC: Open to selective fishing for Chinook (dip net, rod and reel and potential 8 inch mesh GN).

7-Jul 6 pm

30-Ju16 pm

FNs FSC: Open to selective fishing for Chinook (dip net) and open in tribs for sox and chinook.

Kelly Creek to Deadman Deadman to Chilcotin Chilcotin to Quesnel

Earliest potential opening to fishing for Fraser sockeye is July 18 (Sn, Gn, Tr).

Potential for FNs FSC Chinook足 directed fisheries. Earliest potential communal opening to for Fraser sockeye ( is July 18.

Jul 18 - noon

Sawmill Creek to Texas Creek Texas Creek to Kelly Creek

Earliest potential opening to fishing for Fraser sockeye = July 14 (SN, GN, TR)

24-Jun Midnight

Steveston-Port Mann Bridge (Subareas 29-11 to 29-17) Port Mann Bridge to Sawmill Creek

28-Feb-14

Quesnel to Hixon

II-Jul 6 pm

3-Aug 6 pm

FNs FSC : Open to selective fishing for Chinook (dip net) and open in tribs for sox and chinook.

II-JuI6 pm

3-Aug 6 pm

FNs FSC: Some allowable harvest in terminal area.

Hixon to Prince George

Prince George to Stuart River

-9­ Appendix 3: 2014 Fraser Sockeye Forecast

Bowron Fennell Gates Nadina

MRS power Larkin MRJ

Pitt -Scotch "Seymour Mise (EShu &

Larkin Ricker

Late Stuart Quesnel Stellako Raft h

power Ricker-cyc Larkin

~Harrison h& I

24,000 79,000 109,000

172,000 645,000 437,000 147,000

329,000 1,524,000 690 ,000

25,000

39,000

228,000

473 ,000

Mise (N. Thomp . Tribs) h R/S (RafFe) Mise (N. Thomp River) h & I R/S (RafFe)

8,967,000 "Late Shuswap Ricker-cyc Portage

Larkin

Weaver

MRS

""Birkenhead Misc . non­ Shuswap k

Ricker (Ei) R/S (Ullooet­ Harrison)

UNote that for Scotch, Seymour, Harrison, Late Shuswap and Portage Creek, these stocks were forecast using record brood year EFS, as a result, these forecasts are particularly uncertain given the forecast models are extrapolating beyond the observed data range. xxNote that Early Stuart and Birkenhead, for different reasons, have biased brood year escapement estimates in 2010, which adds additional uncertainty to the 2014 forecasts . a. Probability that return will be at, or below, specified projection. b. See Table 5 for model descriptions c. Sockeye: 1953-2010 (depending on start of time series) d. Sockeye: 1954-2010 (depending on start of time series) e. Misc. Early Shuswap stocks use Scotch and Seymour RfEFS in forecast; Misc. Taseko uses Chilko RfEFS in forecast f. Misc. Chilliwack & Nahatlach use Early Summer Run stocks RfEFS in forecast g. Brood year smolts in columns C & D (not effective females) h. Raft, Harrison, Miscellaneous North Thompson stocks moved in current forecast to Summer Run timing group due to changes in run timing of these stocks i. Harrison are age-4 (column C) and age-3 (column D). j. Misc. North Thompson stocks use Raft & Fennel RfEFS in forecast k. Misc. Late Run stocks (Harrison Lake down stream migrants including Big Silver, Cogburn, etc.) use Birkenhead RfEFS in forecast •• Harrison forecasts are extremely uncertain due to age-proportion variations and brood year escapements (20 I 0/20 II) that are out of the historical data range Definitions: BY: Brood year; BY9: brood year 2009; BYIO: brood year 2010; EFS : effective female spawners; Ei (Entrance Island sea-surface-temperature); PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation).