Franchise Forecast 2025 by Franchise Canada

Canadian Franchise Industry Economic Outlook 2025

April 2025

Franchise Forecast 2025: Executive Summary

The Canadian franchise industry is a powerful economic force that continues to grow despite a challenging economic climate. That is due in part to the fact that franchised small business owners are local members of their communities, and contribute their success back into the cities, towns, and neighbourhoods where they live and work.

Franchising remains the 12th largest industry in Canada and is projected to grow by 4 per cent, increasing the total franchise-related GDP contribution to $133.3 billion by 2026. This represents a $4.9 billion increase before the end of the year, which is a monumental feat considering the economic challenges that persist for Canadians today, including supply chain, labour concerns, fluctuating interest rates, inflation, and political uncertainty, among others.

Beyond GDP growth, Canadian franchisors continue to grow the number of franchise establishments, with almost 68,000 projected to be in operation by the end of 2025. The Canadian franchise industry’s contribution to provincial and federal tax revenue is also expected to increase to more than $33 billion, an increase of almost 4 per cent over 2024.

This growth is a testament to the strength of the Canadian Franchise Association (CFA) community, which helps the CFA achieve its purpose of helping everyday Canadians build their own business through the power of franchising. As CFA members commit to being the best possible franchisors they can be, they provide the support their franchisees need to thrive in their communities.

These franchisees are local small business owners who are the backbone of the industry, connecting with their customers and contributing to their communities across the country in major ways, each and every day. The Canadian franchise industry is projected to employ almost two million people in 2025, with thousands of new franchise-related jobs

The Canadian franchise industry is projected to contribute more than $133.3 billion to the national GDP by 2026

12th

Franchising ranks as the 12th largest industry in Canada

expected to be added in the year to come. This will also lead to growth in franchise-related wages, with the industry expected to pay $69.9 billion in wages in 2025, an increase of $2.5 billion from 2024.

This growth is expected across all regions, with every province projected to increase the number of franchise establishments in 2025. Ontario is expected to add the most franchise establishments, while Alberta, Newfoundland and Labrador, and British Columbia will experience the highest percentage of growth.

The continued growth of the Canadian franchise industry would not be possible without the strength and resilience of our CFA community, which has proven that we are committed to Growing Together ® in the face of any and all challenges. These efforts continue in 2025 to ensure the industry meets the expectations outlined in this report, as we focus on bringing even more local small business owners into our community through the power of franchising.

Sincerely,

Sherry McNeil, President & CEO Canadian Franchise Association

Almost

68,000 franchise units in Canada

Almost

2 million

Canadians are projected to be employed by the franchise industry in 2025

An independent study conducted on behalf of:

ABOUT CANADIAN FRANCHISE ASSOCIATION

The Canadian Franchise Association (CFA) helps everyday Canadians realize the dream of building their own business through the power of franchising. CFA advocates on issues that impact this dream on behalf of more than 700 corporate members and over 40,000 franchisees from many of Canada’s best- known and emerging franchise brands. Beyond its role as the voice of the franchise industry, CFA strengthens and develops franchising by delivering best- practice education and creating rewarding connections between C anadians and the opportunities in franchising. Founded in 1967, CFA consistently advances and supports the franchise community, and is the essential resource for information, insight, and expertise through its award- winning education, events, services, and websites: www.cfa.ca and FranchiseCanada.online.

The Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis (CANCEA) is Canada’s foremost independent socio- economic advisory and data firm.

We enable intelligent and responsible decisionmaking and dialogue through the provision of timely, data - driven social, economic and business insights and solutions that are trusted by over 400 leading organizations for their policy and business- critical forward- looking analysis.

Our services are powered by Canada’s largest, fully integrated socio- economic platform that simultaneously examines hundreds of topics by geospatially simulating over 40 million people and 2 million firms across more than 58,000 Canadian regions.

Equipped with this powerful socio- economic intelligence, our experts and analysts help clients to track, analyze and report the many factors that make up and drive complex regional- level socio- economic communities. This allows the implications of socio- economic micro and macro trends across many topics to be understood by our clients in support of their policy and business- critical decisions.

CANCEA does not accept any research funding or client engagements that require a predetermined result or policy stance or otherwise inhibit its independence.

In keeping with CANCEA’s guidelines for funded research, the design and method of research, as well as the content of this study, were determined solely by CANCEA.

This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal or tax advice.

This report was commissioned by the Canadian Franchise Association.

Check out our services and case studies and ask us how we can use Canada’s largest and most detailed socio- economic simulation platform to help you at https://www.cancea.ca

The Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis. Canadian Franchise Industry Economic Outlook 2025 February 2025

1 0 O V E R V I E W

This report outlines the economic forecast for the Canadian Franchise Industry for the upcoming year and covers the net change in the number of franchise establishments as well as franchiserelated economic indicators, such as gross domestic product (GDP), employment (number of jobs and fulltime equivalents), and tax revenue generated by franchises. These results are further broken down by province and selected industry sectors.

T HE CANADIAN FRANCHISE INDUSTRY AND GENERAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The Canadian franchise industry has over 1,100 brands with at least one Canadian establishment and over 67,000 franchise establishments in a variety of industry sectors. While interest rates have fallen recently , the Canadian economy is expected to continue to face uncertainty on a variety of fronts, particularly those related to supply chains. As a result, growth is expected to remain slow in the upcoming year However, the outlook for individual provinces varies based on their economic conditions and industry mix.

Nationwide, we anticipate the number of franchise establishments in the country to grow by about 550 Nonetheless, we expect to observe continued increases in GDP, wages, and taxation revenues as wages continue to adjust to recent changes in prices.

NATIONAL OUTLOOK

In 2025, the nominal economic activity of the Canadian franchise industry is expec ted to grow by

(+$4.9 billion

2026. As illustrated in Table 1, the total number of franchise establishments in Canada is expected

by 0.79% to a total of nearly 67,600 franchise establishments. Furthermore, the Canadian franchise industry’s contribution to federal and provincial tax revenue is expected to increase, respectively, by 3.84 % (+$668 million net increase) to $18.1 billion and by 3.80% (+$559 million net increase) to $15.3 billion by 2026 Higher prices and wages are driving most of the increases rather than growth in the number of franchises.

Total franchiserelated employment in the country is expected to grow by 0.79% to 1.75 million jobs (1.50 million FTEs) by 2026, which is equivalent to 13,700 net new jobs (10,400 of which are directly due to franchises) Growth in employment is associated with a 3.83% increase in total franchiserelated wages to almost $69.9 billion (a net increase of $2.5 billion in wages over the coming year). Part- time franchiserelated employment is expected to increase slightly less tha n fulltime employment, by 0.77% (+3,700 net new jobs) to 487,400 jobs while fulltime employment is expected to grow by 0.88% (+10,000 net new jobs) to 1.26 million.

PROVINCE AND TERRITORY OUTLOOK

At the provincial level, in absolute terms, Ontario is estimated to have the largest number of franchise establishments added, but among the lowest percentage growth, with an increase of 225 establishments (growth of 0.69%). Alberta and British Columbia ha ve the second largest number of franchise establishments added (+95 net establishments each) as well as higher than average growth rates Alberta is followed by Newfoundland and Labrador with growth at a rate of 1.05% Newfoundland and Labrador, along with Prince Edward Island also have higher growth rates in the number of franchises, though this amounts to only a handful of new franchises. Meanwhile, the lowest percentage growth is projected to occur in New Brunswick and Quebec , where the number of franchise establishments is estimated to grow by 0.61%, and 0.64% respectively. A breakdown of the provincial and territory projections for the franchise industry is provided in Table 2 and Table 3

SECTOR OUTLOOK

Table 4 provides an overview of the top franchise industry sectors across total franchiserelated GDP and tota l franchiserelated employment in terms of fulltime equivalents (FTEs). Sectors which may experience above average growth include professional and technical services and construction, though these sectors currently have smaller franchise footprints. The growth in the accommodation and food services sector , despite being the largest sector by number of franchises and employment, is expected to be softer given economic uncertainties Of the combined $33.2 billion of franchiserelated GDP in the accommodation and food services sector, the majority, 93%, is from the food services sector.

a ble 4 Top sector outlook for 2026 1

The sectors with the lowest GDP growth from 2025 to 2026 (included in the “Rest of sectors” category) include utilities; wholesale trade; transportation and warehousing; mining; and agriculture

1 Refer to Figure 1 on the next page for an overview of industry sectors and the types of franchises that fall under each industry sector category.

INDUSTRY SECTOR DESCRIPTIONS

Figure 1 below provides an overview of the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) industry sectors and the types of franchises that fall under each sector category.

Hospitality Products / Services

Hotels / Motels / Campgrounds

Administrative and Support

Commercial - Janitorial Services

Employment / Personnel Services

Environmental Products and Services

Building & Design Services

Commercial - Supplies / Equipment & Services

Printing / Copying / Shipping

Sign Products & Services

Wine Making

Automotive & Truck Services / Products / Rentals

Event Planning Beauty / Cosmetics / Supplies

Fire Prevention / Safety & Security

Furniture / Upholstery Repair

Home - Inspection Services

Home - Maid / Cleaning Services

Janitorial & Maid Services

Lawn & Garden Supplies / Services

Remediation

Security Systems & Services

Dry Cleaning / Clothing Care

Hair & Nail Salons / Spas

Tanning Salons

Other

Accounting / Tax Services

Advertising / Marketing / Promotional Products & Services

Business Consultants / Services / Training

Travel Computer / Software / Internet

Waste Management Legal

Health / Fitness / Nutrition

Sports / Recreation / Entertainment

Weight Loss Services / Body Contouring

Educational Products & Services

Painting Services

Photo Imaging / Photography

Custom Deck

Home/Commercial Improvement / Renovation / Restoration R

Business - Supplies / Equipment & Services

Business Services / Office Space / Co-working Space

Financial / Cash Services

Insurance

Leasing and Holding Companies

Rental

Real Estate

F o o d S e r v i c e s ( N A I C S 7 2 2 )

Food - Baked Goods / Coffee / Donuts

Food - Quick Service Restaurants

Food - Restaurants / Dining Rooms

H e a l t h C

( N A I C S 6 2 )

Seniors Services / Home Care / Transition

Social Assistance

I n f o r m a t i o n a n d C u l t u r a l I n d u s t r i e s ( N A I C S 5 1 )

Magazines / Publishers

Automotive dealers

Children's Products & Services

Commercial / Residential Services

Food - Grocery / Specialty Shops/ Meal Assembly

Home - Decorations / Furnishings

Home Based Businesses

Mobile Businesses

Pets - Sales / Supplies / Services

Pharmacy

Retail

Water Treatment

Consumer Buying Services

Designated Driving / Transportation Services

2 0 F R A N C H I S E E S T A B L I S H M E N T S

The Canadian franchise industry is projected to grow by 530 net new franchise establishments in the coming year, an increase of 0.79% over 2025 to nearly 67,600 establishments As shown in Figure 2, this growth continues the increase since the 2021 pandemic numbers, though economic uncertainty, particularly related to supply chains, may act to slow growth.

F Fi g ure 2

Number of franchise establishments since 2021 at the start of each year

Across the country, Ontario is expected to have the largest number of franchise establishments added (+225 net increase, growth of 0.69%) to almost 32,800 establishments. This represents 42% of all new franchise establishments in Canada in the upcoming year Ontario is followed by Alberta and British Columbia , each projected to grow by 95 net establishments, resulting in a total of 8,015 and 10,170 establishments respectively. In terms of percent growth, New Brunswick and Quebec are expected to experience the lowest growth rates, at 0.61% and 0.64% respectively Further provincial breakdowns are provided in Table 5

3 0 G R O S S D O M E S T I C P R O D U C T ( G D P )

The total franchiserelated GDP is estimated to be $133.3 billion in 2026, a 3.84% increase over 2025. In 2026, the direct GDP attributed to Canadian franchises is estimated to be $78.1 billion, which represents 59% of the expected total franchiserelated GDP Table 6 provides an overview of the direct and total franchise GDP growth projected during 2025 by industry sector.

The sectors with the lowest nominal GDP (included in the “Rest of sectors” category) include agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting; mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; utilities; wholesale trade; transportation and warehousing; information and cultural industries; health care and social assistance; management of companies and enterprises; and public administration.

The primary driver of the growth in total franchiserelated GDP is the food and accommodation services sector, which is expected to increase by 3.81% to $33.2 billion (+$1.22 billion from 2025) with 93% arising from the food services component of the sector due to the much larger number of food service franchises This is followed by the finance and retail trade, which are each expected to increase by over $600 million from 2025). Combined, these three industry sectors represent nearly 50% of the growth in the totalfranchise related GDP.

If we consider direct franchise GDP contributions (i.e. GDP that is generated through the operation of franchise establishments and not through indirect and induced effects), the top three industry sectors with the largest direct franchise GDP percentage growth in Canada are projected to be:

• Professional and technical services, growing by $250 million (+4.02%)

• Construction and related services, growing by $140 million (+4.00%) and

• Manufacturing, growing by $130 million (+3.87%).

Figure 3 provides an overview of the change in total franchiserelated GDP in the franchise industry between 2025 and 2026 by province. As evident below, the largest total franchiserelated GDP is projected to occur in Ontario followed by British Columbia and then Quebec.

F Fi g ure 3

Provincial and territories total franchiserelated nominal GDP

Each province and the territories projected to experience total franchiserelated GDP growth not too far from the national average of 3.84% as illustrated in Figure 4. However, Alberta is expected to have the highest franchiserelated GDP growth at 4.24% while New Brunswick will have the lowest at 3.64%.

The significance of franchise ecosystem to the Canadian economy is highlighted in Table 8 which shows that if franchises were considered its own sector, it would rank 12th in Canada.

4 0 E M P L O Y M E N T A N D W A G E S

The total franchiserelated employment is projected to grow to 1.75 million jobs (1.5 million FTEs) by 2026 , a 0.79% increase over 2025 and equivalent to 13,700 net new jobs Direct employment in Canadian franchises, representing 74.6% of the total franchiserelated employment, is expected to grow by 10,400 new jobs (8,800 FTEs) by 2026, a 0.79% increase. Table 9 provides an overview of the direct and total franchise employment growth projection by province.

Full- time total franchiserelated employment growth is expected to be greater than part- time employment growth, which are expected to increase in 2026, respectively, by 0.80% (+10,000 net new jobs) to 1.26 million jobs and by 0.77% (+3,700 net new jobs) to 487,400. Table 10 further breaks down the employment growth across the provinces and territories by type of employment T a ble 10

At the provincial level, in absolute terms, Ontario is estimated to have the largest number of total franchiserelated jobs added by 2026 (+5,980 new jobs, growth of 0.69%) to 869,000 jobs (744,000 FTEs). This represents 44% of the total franchiserelated new jobs projected to be created by 2026 Alberta , given its continued economic growth, is the province with the next largest number of total franchiserelated jobs added (+2,400 new jobs). At the same time, Atlantic provinces such as PEI and Newfoundland and Labrador are also projected to have relatively high percentage growth in franchiserelated employment for 2025.

However, in absolute terms Atlantic Provinces and the Territories are expected to add the fewest franchiserelated jobs, collectively adding just over 500 jobs These regions have low er population sizes, and therefore, there is less demand for net new franchise establishments (i.e., some franchises may close, and new franchises may open, but net numbers are not changing as much as in other provinces).

In terms of the industry sectors that will contribute the most to the total franchiserelated employment in 2025, the food and accommodation services sector (40.1%) and retail sector (13 5%) are projected to have the two largest contributions, making up over half of all franchiserelated employment Figure 5 provides a breakdown of the sectors contributing to total franchiserelated employment.

F Fi g ure 5 Total franchiserelated employment (FTEs) proportions

The “Rest of sectors” group include agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting; mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; utilities; wholesale trade; transportation and warehousing; information and cultural industries; health care and social assistance; management of companies and enterprises; and public administration.

In terms of direct franchise employment, the food and accommodation services (45 3%) and retail (14 6 %) sectors are also projected to contribute the most, followed by other services (exc luding public administration) (10.4%). A further breakdown is provided in Figure 6.

The “Rest of sectors” category includes the same sectors as in Figure 5

The increase in franchiserelated employment and wage growth is estimated to be associated with a 3.83 % increase in the total franchiserelated wages to $70.0 billion by 2026. This is a projected net increase of $2.6 billion in wages over the coming year. Table 11 provides a breakdown of the wage increases across the different provinces.

5 0 G R O S S O P E R A T I N G S U R P L U S

The total franchiserelated gross operating surplus 2 (GOS) is estimated to be $47.0 billion by 2026, a 3.84 % increase (+$1.74 billion net increase) over 2025 Table 12 provides an overview of the total franchiserelated GOS growth projected by province and territories The largest increase in total franchiserelated GOS is projected to occur in Ontario (+$831 million net increase, growth of 3.73%), followed by British Columbia (+$292 million net increase, growth of 3.98%) and then Alberta (+$270 million net increase, growth of 4.25%).

The primary driver of the growth in total franchiserelated GOS growth in the Canadian franchise industry is the food and accommodation services sector, which is estimated to increase by 3.82% by 2026 to $9.63 billion (+$350 million net increase from 2025). With food services franchises outnumbering the accommodation franchises by more than 10 to 1, over 90% of the GOS ($8.66 billion) is associated with the food services franchises. This is followed by the financial, insurance and real estate sector, which is estimated to also increase by 3.82% by 2026 to $7.45 billion (+$270 million net increase). Further breakdowns of the total franchiserelated GOS growth by sector are provided in Table 13

2 Operating surplus is the return to capital of incorporated business. It consists of gross profits (including bad debts and charitable contributions) of corporations before income taxes, including capital consumption allowances, miscellaneous investment income, dividend pay net of dividend received, interest paid net of interest received, and inventory valuation adjustment. See full definition on the Statistics Canada website

The sectors with the lowest GOS growth (included in the “Rest of sectors” category) include utilities; wholesale trade; transportation and warehousing; mining; management of companies and enterprises; and public administration.

6 0 T A X R E V E N U E

By 2026, the Canadian franchise industry is projected to generate a total of $18.1 billion in federal taxation revenue (+$670 million net increase, growth of 3.84%) and $15.3 billion in provincial taxation revenue (+$560 million net increase, growth of 3.80%) Table 14 provides a breakdown of the federal and provincial taxation revenue projected to be generated by the Canadian franchise industry.

Given its size, Ontario’s franchise industry is expected to generate the most federal tax revenue out of all provinces at $9.09 billion (growth of 3.73%) and provincial tax revenue at $7.90 billion (growth of 3.73%) by 2026. In terms of taxation revenue growth, Alberta is estimated to see the largest percentage increase out of all the provinces and territories, with its tax revenue contribution growing by 4.24% to $2.26 billion federally and $1.07 billion provincially

7 0 T R E N D S

All provinces and territories are expected to see growth across all franchise- sector metrics, although growth is expected to differ considerably from province to province (and territories). The trends are presented by province in Table 15

T a ble 15 Provincial growth trends: establishments, nominal GDP, employment, GOS, wages and taxes

While GDP and employment are expected to grow across all industry sectors related to business, the professional and technical services sector is expected to have the greatest jobs growth rate of 0.96%. The trends in expected franchiserelated growth by industry sector is shown in Table 16 below.

T a ble 16 Top industry sector growth trends: nominal GDP and employment

The sectors with the lowest nominal GDP and employment growth (included in the “Rest of sectors” category) include agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting; mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; utilities; wholesale trade; transportation and warehousing; information and cultural industries; management of companies and enterprises; health care and social assistance; and public administration.

8 0 C O N C L U S I O N S

In conclusion, our economic outlook for the upcoming year indicates that while the growth of franchise establishments will continue to be slow , we still expect to see positive gains in key economic indicators. This includes an increase in GDP, wages, and taxation revenues, as wages and prices continue to adjust after the periods of high inflation in the past years. As a result, we anticipate a franchiserelated GDP growth rate of approximately 3.84% for the Canadian franchise industry, which will push its total franchiserelated GDP contribution to $133.3 billion in nominal terms. These projections are a positive sign for the franchise industry and suggest that it will continue to be a significant contributor to the Canadian economy in the coming year. However, economic uncertainty, particularly around supply- chains and interest rates, will continue to be challenge.

Total franchiserelated employment in the country is estimated to grow by 0.79% to 1.75 million jobs (1.50 million FTEs) throughout 2025 (equivalent to 13,700 net new jobs, 10,400 of which are directly due to franchises) Total franchiserelated employment growth is split between fulltime employment, which is estimated to increase by 0.80% (+10,100 net new jobs) to 1.26 million jobs, and part- time employment , which is expected to grow by 0.77% (+3,700 net new jobs) to 487,400 positions Growth in employment is associated with a 3.83% increase in the total franchiserelated wages to nearly $69.9 billion (a net increase of $2.6 billion in wages over the coming year).

The increased GDP, employment, and associated wages will result in an estimated 3.84% increase in federal and provincial taxation revenue contributed by the Canadian franchise industry. Federal tax revenue contributed by the franchise industry is estimated to reach $18 1 billion, while provincial tax revenue contributed by the franchise industry is estimated to reach $15.3 billion.

In terms of the provinces and territories, the largest increases in absolute terms in franchiserelated GDP , employment, wages, GOS and taxation revenue are estimated to occur in Ontario, due to the size of the economy Total franchiserelated GDP and wage growth in Ontario is projected at $2.3 billion and $1.3 billion (growth of 3.73%), respectively Similarly, in terms of new franchise establishments, Ontario is expected to grow the most. Of the 530 net new franchise establishments projected to be created countrywide, over 40% are expected to be in Ontario However, growth rates of the franchise- sector are expected to be highest in Alberta with a 1.2% increase in the number of franchises, and 4.24% increase in the total franchiserelated nominal GDP in the province.

A P P E N D

I X A G L O S S A R Y

Agent

Agent- based modeling (ABM)

Direct Impact

Employment (Fulltime equivalents)

Employment (Total)

Franchisee

Franchising

Franchisor

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Gross Operating Surplus

Indirect Impacts

An autonomous individual, firm or organization that responds to cues from other agents and their environment using a set of evidence- based behavioural rules in response to those cues.

A framework for modeling a dynamic system, such as an economy, using individual agents, their mutual interaction with each other, and their mutual interaction with their environment(s).

T he impacts directly involved in the operation of franchises. This includes the income and value of production of economic agents (i.e., workers and firms) directly involved in a franchise

Equivalent to person- years of employment refers to the amount of work typically performed by one person working fulltime for one year.

The number of employed residents living in a region, in a given year. These residents may work within their region of residence or may commute outside of the region to work.

An individual or organization that gets granted and holds the rights contained in the franchise agreement for the sale of goods or the operation of a service.

Method of doing business in which one person, the franchisor, grants another, the franchisee, certain rights contained in the franchise agreement.

An individual or organization that grants the rights contained in the franchise agreement to a third party for the conducting of a business under their marks.

T he total unduplicated value of the goods and services produced in the economic territory of a country or region during a given period.

Gross operating surplus is the surplus generated by operating activities after the labour factor input has been recompensed. It can be calculated from the value added at factor cost less the personnel costs. It is the balance available to the unit which allows it to recompense the providers of own funds and debt, to pay taxes and eventually to finance all or a part of its investment.

The indirect effects are the economic impacts that arise through business to business interactions throughout the supply chain.

Induced Impacts

Induced effects are the economic activity created through increased spending of those workers receiving incomes from franchises. They can also occur due to reinvestment of business profits to expand capacity or replace depreciated capital stock. These purchases or activities can lead to further employment, wages, income, and tax revenue that reverberate throughout different industries.

Prosperity at Risk

Systems approach

System effects

Taxation Revenue

CANCEA’s cutting- edge and innovative “big data” computer simulation platform that incorporates social, health, economic, financial, and infrastructure factors in an agent- based system

The belief that in complex systems, the whole is not equal to the sum of its parts. Such an approach requires the understanding that different combinations of assets can have different values for agents and that agents have different constraints and desires, and cannot be treated as aggregates.

Impacts that transcend direct, indirect and induced effects, which are not traditionally measured by economics. These impacts arise from the relationship between every economic agent and the environment in which they operate, as they influence one another’s states and behaviours.

T he tax collected by the provincial and federal governments and is made up of income, consumption, and corporate taxes.

A P P E

N D I X B M E T H O D O L O G Y

The economic forecast of the Canadian franchise industry was conducted using CANCEA’s Prosperity at Risk® platform. Using over 170 tables from Statistics Canada, including Statistics Canada input- output data (I/O), and over 56,000 Canadian Census dissemina tion areas, the Prosperity at Risk® platform takes into account the demand and supply of commodities across industry sectors and unifies it with demographics, labour force dynamics, government finances, private capital investment, and the interdependencies of production to allow for the Canadian franchises to be quantified and forecasted.

As the Prosperity at Risk® platform is an agent- based, event- driven microsimulation platform, it is capable of capturing the direct, indirect, and induced contributions, as well as identifying the contribution at different regional levels. By incorporating household behaviour, industry and firm behaviour, and federal and provincial tax rates, Prosperity at Risk® is capable of providing the economic impact across different economic indicators such as GDP (real and nominal), employment, wages, government revenue, and household income. Furthermore, Prosperity at Risk® also captures the “system impacts”, which consider the broader impact of franchises

In addition to internal model validation, the output from the Prosperity at Risk® platform is regularly tested against the results of other models. Cross model validation ensures Prosperity at Risk® is producing baselines that are in accordance with other models Key models include:

• Public sector forecasts including Ontario Ministry of Finance (e.g., population and GDP); and

• Private- sector forecasts including major Canadian banks.

For more information on the Prosperity at Risk® platform and its applications, please refer to CANCEA (2017)

A P P E

N D I X C B I B L I O G R A P H Y

Bank of Canada. 2023. October 2023 Monetary Policy Report. Bank of Canada.

Canadian Franchise Association. 2017. Franchising in Canada: Policy Briefing. Toronto: Canadian Franchise Association.

CFA. 2017. "Franchising Research and Facts." Canadian Franchise Association. https://www.cfa.ca/newsabout- cfa - members/franchise- research- facts/.

Frazer, L., S. Weaven, A. Grace, and S. Selvanathan. 2016. Franchising Australia 2016. Griffith Business School.

Heintz, J., R. Polin, and H. Garrett- Peltier. 2009. How Infrastructure Investments Support the U.S. Economy: employment, productivity and growth. Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts Amherst.

International Trade Administration. 2016. 2016 Top Markets Report: Franchising. U.S. Department of Commerce.

PWC. 2016. The Economic Impact of Franchised Businesses: Vollume IV, 2016. Price Waterhouse Cooper.

The Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis. 2016. "The Economic Impact of Canadian P3 Projects: Why building infrastructure 'on time' matters."

The Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis. 2017. Understanding the forces driving the shelter affordability issue: A linked- path assessment of housing market dynamics in Ontario and the GTHA. The Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis.