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resilience in transit countries and countries of destination. Measures to consider include work permits and access to jobs, skills recognition and training, and access to schools and public health services. At the same time, at the global level, the development community could help by focusing more strongly on building resilience and helping refugees to transition into self-reliance. This will be even more important in light of the slow and unstable growth the world is currently experiencing, which may further limit countries’ absorptive capacities.
Economic Growth 4.0 Fiscal crises in key economies, asset bubbles, and structural unemployment and underemployment are among economic risks rated as both highly impactful and likely; another global systemic financial crisis is rated as somewhat less likely than last year, but similarly impactful. Taken together, these risks could result in another economic slowdown with knock-on effects on employment and, ultimately, social stability.
Economic concerns are currently centred on the corporate and public debts built up by emerging markets in the recent low-interest rate environment: the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates the extent of corporate over-borrowing at up to US$3 trillion,23 and the corporate debt to GDP ratio rose by 26 percentage points between 2004 and 2014 for this group of countries.24 Particular risks could emanate from China, where continued credit-based measures to address concerns about a slowing economy could further heighten vulnerability to a financial crisis.
Box 1.3: Refugees in Malaysia
Part 4
Since the 1980s, hundreds of thousands of Rohingya, a stateless ethnic and religious minority from Myanmar, have sought asylum in nearby countries, including Bangladesh, Thailand and Malaysia. In recent years, an increasing number of Rohingya people have fled by boat: 25,000 people departed from the Bay of Bengal just in the first quarter of 2015. Over 50,000 Rohingya refugees are registered with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) in Malaysia,1 with thousands more unregistered. The situation in Malaysia is at once a protracted refugee situation – with multiple generations of refugees, some of whom have achieved moderate de facto integration – and a humanitarian crisis marked by a steady influx of emaciated and traumatized asylum-seekers. The legal status of refugees in Malaysia is tenuous: the country has not ratified key international agreements (most notably the 1951 Refugee Convention and its 1967 Protocol), and it lacks a legal and administrative framework for responding to refugees. While the UNHCR has primary responsibility for refugees – including registration and documentation – there are significant gaps in protection and assistance. Refugees cannot attend Malaysian schools, face barriers accessing healthcare, and confront a range of security and protection risks, including detention. Despite these challenges, refugees invariably show a vibrant entrepreneurial spirit, undertaking formal and informal work to support themselves and their families, at restaurants and retail shops, schools, factories and farms, operating their own small businesses, cleaning, collecting goods to recycle and working in skilled professions, for instance as electricians. Specific examples include refugees opening tea shops with the help of Malaysian acquaintances, opening grocery shops that serve as meeting places for other refugees, and opening home day care for Malaysian children in the neighbourhood. However, restrictions prohibiting them from undertaking employment legally mean that most resort to difficult jobs for low pay, and their illegal status leaves them vulnerable to abuse and exploitation. Rohingya refugees seek to improve their lives and livelihoods over the course of protracted displacement in various ways. They adopt skills and techniques – such as learning the local language and negotiating with authorities – to help them secure employment and make their way. Contrary to the widespread perception that refugees are a burden for the country of asylum, only a small proportion of refugees in Malaysia receive formal assistance from non-governmental organizations or the UNHCR; instead, most find innovative, albeit challenging, ways to support themselves and their families. They rely primarily on support from other refugees, community associations, and members of the host population to manage shocks, find work, overcome bureaucratic barriers and gain access to institutions. In the absence of formal social protection and services, Rohingya refugees have begun to develop their own: refugee-run community organizations, for example, register members, issue marriage certificates, operate convalescent shelters and help refugees find work. Although it is important to recognize what refugees can do for themselves, the livelihoods of even the most successful are precarious. Many have relevant and transferable skills and a genuine desire to bring something to the communities in which they live, yet there is a marked dissonance between what refugees stand to contribute and the restrictive policies that limit their ability to do so. Addressing this gap requires a shift away from seeing refugees as passive victims or recipients of assistance or goods to understanding them as active agents pursuing lives and livelihoods in an extremely challenging environment, and in doing so contributing to the countries where they seek asylum. Note 1 UNHCR 2015a; UNHCR 2015c.
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The Global Risks Report 2016