Emerging Research Results 2016
Are We Adapting to Climate Change?
In recent years adaptation has gained considerable interest around the world and adaptation actions have been reported in different contexts and at different administrative levels. Although existing studies examining the state of the adaptation landscape provide valuable first steps in gaining contextual understanding of the adaptation process across scales, it is still a fragmented picture of adaptation, at best. New questions emerging that require different explanatory approaches to study adaptation include: How has adaptation progress been taking place globally? Is society adapting more than previously? What conditions drive adaptation? Why have some countries progressed as they did? Which variables can explain how countries have arranged their governance of adaptation? Have investments in concrete adaptation policies been legitimate and effective? What are valuable predictors of how adaptation takes place? How does adaptation policy perform?
Challenge of Tracking Adaptation
Measuring adaptation progress is a unique challenge because unlike for mitigation, where GHGs provide a measurable outcome by which the effectiveness of climate policy can be assessed, there are no ‘off-the-shelf’ metrics for adaptation. Tracking adaptation therefore requires overcoming conceptual, methodological and empirical challenges. Conceptual Challenges: What constitutes adaptation is unclear and indistinctive; some of the existing policy efforts contribute to reducing climate variability but are not framed as such whereas other efforts are labeled as adaptation, but hardly contribute to solving
any of the adaptation challenges. Tracking adaptation therefore requires further conceptual disentangling of what adaptation means, better understanding of the key components and identification of comparable measurement indicators across cases. Methodological Challenges: The idea of tracking adaptation is to go beyond the descriptive and contextualized, and search for methods of standardization, develop indicators and proxies, test hypotheses, identify predictors of adaptation action, and construct a baseline for analysis. Such methods have been used in other domains, but only sporadically in the context of adaptation. Considering the conceptual challenges, these methods need to be developed and tailored to adaptation characteristics in order to engage with adaptation tracking. Empirical Challenges: Tracking adaptation requires the production of comprehensive datasets. Existing datasets are often static, capturing only a small timeframe. In most cases datasets are non-existent and need to be developed from qualitative data in order to properly track adaptation. This systematic data collection process needs to be repeated in order to construct a longitudinal database from which to start tracking adaptation over time.
TRAC3 Emerging Results
TRAC3 was launched in 2014. Here, we present early TRAC3 research outputs, as well as relevant pre-2014 publications. Though some of these publications were not developed as TRAC3, they were all led by authors that are now members of TRAC3, reflect the research directions of the consortium, and demonstrate the foundational research that led to the creation of TRAC3.
Tracking adaptation ... requires overcoming conceptual, methodological and empirical challenges.
Key Publications Dupuis, J., & Biesbroek, R. (2013). Comparing apples and oranges: The dependent variable problem in comparing and evaluating climate change adaptation policies. Global Environmental Change, 23(6), 1476-1487. Ford, J. D., Berrang-Ford, L., Lesnikowski, A., Barrera, M., & Heymann, S. J. (2013). How to Track Adaptation to Climate Change: A Typology of Approaches for National-Level Application. Ecology and Society, 18(3), 40. Ford, J. D., & Berrang-Ford, L. (2015). The 4Cs of adaptation tracking: Consistency, comparability, comprehensiveness, coherency. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 1-21.
Bangkok, Thailand: Flood 2011 Photo by Chrisgel Ryan Cruz (Flickr)
Climatic extremes were found to be more important in motivating action than anticipated long-term changes in climate. Key Publications
Oregon, United States: Ice Storm Damage 2014 Photo by Wolfram Burner (Flickr)
Araos, M., Berrang-Ford, L., Ford, J. D., Austin, S. E., Biesbroek, R., & Lesnikowski, A. (2016). Climate change adaptation planning in large cities: A systematic global assessment. Environmental Science & Policy. Berrang-Ford, L., Ford, J., and Paterson, J. (2011). Are we adapting to climate change? Global Environmental Change (21): 25-33. Lesnikowski, A., Ford, J., Berrang-Ford, L., Barrera, M., Berry, P., Heymann, J. (2014). How are we adapting to climate change? A global assessment. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change.
Global Trends
Berrang-Ford et al. (2011) Summary
A key method used by TRAC3 is systematic review. Berrang-Ford et al. (2011) is an early example of how systematic literature reviews can be applied to the field of adaptation research. The review analyzed peer-review, English language literature to assess if and how adaptation is occurring globally, documenting 87 articles that described human adaptation to climate change. Across regions, and where adaptations were recorded, climatic extremes were found to be more important in motivating action than anticipated long-term changes in climate. Nonetheless, higher levels of government were found to be more likely to undertake anticipatory adaptations in some nations, with individuals and households more likely to respond to existing stimuli like market conditions and resource availability. This trend is mediated by national socio-economic status, however, as low-income countries were generally characterized by reactive adaptations and high-income countries were characterized by anticipatory adaptations.
Global Assessment of National Adaptation Lesnikowski et al. (2013) Summary
A critical component of tracking adaptation is the creation of comprehensive datasets that provide a baseline for analysis over time. Lesnikowski et al. (2013) is the largest dataset to date from TRAC3 collaborators. The goal of the project was to establish a baseline understanding of the state of adaptation across high, medium, and low-income countries around the world. In total 4,104 discrete adaptation initiatives were identified from 117 countries using information contained in the National Communications to the UNFCCC. Findings
are characterized on a country level, and contribute to our understanding of where adaptation is occurring, the nature of initiatives being pursued, and which sectors and stakeholders are more frequently engaged in adaptation. Nearly three-quarters of the reported adaptation initiatives constituted capacity-building work to inform and prepare for adaptation implementation. The remaining initiatives constituted tangible steps to reduce vulnerability, for example legislative reform or infrastructure improvements. The agriculture, environment, and water sectors emerged as leading sectors in adaptation implementation, reflecting high levels of concern with water, food, and ecosystem vulnerability. Some of the countries with the highest levels of adaptation implementation included Australia, Belgium, Saint Lucia, and Finland.
Global Assessment of Urban Adaptation Araos et al. (2016) Summary
Cities globally face significant risks from climate change, and are taking an increasingly active role in formulating and implementing climate change adaptation policy. Yet there are few, if any, global assessments of adaptation taking place across cities. This study tests a framework to track urban climate change adaptation policy using municipal adaptation reporting, and presents baseline trends in reported adaptation among global cities. We analyze 401 local governments globally in urban areas with >1m people, and find that only 61 cities (15%) report any adaptation initiatives, and 73 cities (18%) report on planning towards adaptation policy. Results and the full publication are forthcoming, and will be followed by continued TRAC3 work focusing on adaptation tracking in cities globally.
National-level progress on adaptation Administrative Traditions and Climate Lesnikowski et al. (2016) Summary Change Adaptation As adaptation obligations under the UNFCCC evolve, more rigorous approaches to measuring adaptation progress among Parties are critical. This paper presents evidence on policy change for 41 high-income countries between 2010 and 2014. We examine whether countries that were in early stages of adaptation planning in 2010 are making progress to close adaptation gaps, and how the landscape of adaptation in these countries has evolved. In total we find an 87% increase in reported adaptation policies and measures, and evidence that implementation of concrete adaptation initiatives is growing. Reflecting on the strengths and challenges of this early methodology, we further discuss how adaptation tracking practices could guide development of a robust framework for monitoring global adaptation progress and inform future research on policy change across countries.
Public Health Adaptation in OECD Countries Austin et al. (2016) Summary
National governments play a key role in coordinating and facilitating adaptation to protect population health from climate change risks. In this study we systematically review and evaluate how national governments are adapting to the health risks posed by climate change in ten OECD countries. The findings suggest that national governments are primarily addressing infectious disease and heat-related risks posed by climate change, typically emphasising capacity building or informationbased groundwork initiatives. We identify three key dimensions of national governance that are critical for public health adaptation: inter-sectoral collaboration, vertical coordination and national adaptation planning.
Biesbroek et al. (in prep) & Biesbroek et al. (in prep) Summaries
How governments adapt is expected to be influenced by their administrative traditions: their existing institutions, policies, cultures and practices that shape implementation preferences of bureaucrats. This study tests the influence of administrative traditions on adaptation policy formation for 32 Annex I countries. We find that administrative structures seem to matter but find limited evidence that administrative culture is important. Understanding the role of traditions is crucial to prevent adaptation policy ‘misfits’ in the future.
Data and Methods for Large-N Studies Biesbroek et al. (in prep) Summary
Adaptation research is increasingly calling for more comparative adaptation policy research, but this requires reliable and valid data and methods. This paper systematically analyses the data and methods currently used in large-n comparative adaptation policy research. We find that data availability and quality seriously hamper advanced comparative policy studies, and that hardly any comparative work is done beyond Europe and the USA. Serious efforts are needed to strengthen and streamline data collection efforts to overcome these challenges. This would not only benefit scientific research but will be crucial for policy practice, for example when evaluating adaptation policy progress.
The EU’s recent efforts to push for adaptation policies increasingly focus on local and regional initiatives, providing a new need for tracking adaptation.
Key Publications Austin, S. E., Biesbroek, R., Berrang-Ford, L., Ford, J. D., Parker, S., & Fleury, M. D. (2016). Public Health Adaptation to Climate Change in OECD Countries. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 13(9), 889. Biesbroek, R. Austin, S.E., Lesnikowski, A., Ford, J.D., and L Berrang-Ford (in prep) Data collection methods for large(r)-n comparative adaptation policy studies. In preparation. Biesbroek, R., Lesnikowski, A., Vink, M., Ford, J., and L. Berrang-Ford, (in prep) When policy innovations meet administrative traditions: the case of climate change adaptation policy. In preparation. Biesbroek, R., Peters, B.G., and J. Tosun (in prep) Public bureaucracies and Climate Change Adaptation. In preparation for special issue in Review of Policy Research. Lesnikowski, A., Ford, J., Biesbroek, R., Berrang-Ford, L., & Heymann, S. J. (2016). National-level progress on adaptation. Nature Climate Change (6), 261-264.
London, United Kingdom: Heatwave 2013 Photo by David Mills (Flickr)
Some Canadian cities have implemented coordinated approaches to health adaptation, while others have yet to develop adaptation plans.
Key Publications Ford, J., Berrang-Ford, L., and Paterson, J. (2011). A systematic review of observed climate change adaptation in developed nations. Climatic Change 106(2): 327-336. Lesnikowski, A., Ford, J., Berrang-Ford, L., Paterson, J., Barrera, M., & Heymann, S. (2011). Adapting to health impacts of climate change: a study of UNFCCC Annex I parties. Environmental Research Letters, 6(4). Austin, S. E., Ford, J., Berrang-Ford, L., Araos, M., Parker, S., & Fleury, M. D. (2015). Public Health Adaptation to Climate Change in Canadian Jurisdictions. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 12(1), 623-651.
Calgary, Canada: Flood 2013 Photo by Wilson Hui (Flickr)
Adaptation in UNFCCC Annex I Countries
Public Health Adaptation in Canadian Jurisdictions
TRAC3 researches how systematic methodologies can be applied to different data sources. This flexibility is critical because it diversifies our knowledge of adaptation across scales, sectors, and stakeholders. In one study conducted by TRAC3 collaborators, amongst others, (Ford et al., 2011) we drew on a global adaptation dataset we previously created from peer-reviewed literature about adaptation actions (Berrang-Ford et al., 2011). From the dataset we examined stimuli behind adaptation efforts, barriers in the adaptation process, sectors and stakeholders involved in adaptation, and activities or outcomes that constitute adaptation. In another study we used policy documents to create an inventory of health adaptation actions among Annex I Parties to the UNFCCC (Lesnikowski et al., 2011). Specifically, the work assessed self-reported adaptation progress from the National Communications, which are the UNFCCC’s reporting mechanism on adherence to the convention goals. This framework focused on characterizing adaptation actions and capturing the sectors and stakeholders involved in their design and implementation. We achieved the first systematic inventory of adaptation actions within the health sector, and provided the foundation for future studies on adaptation across sectors using the National Communications (e.g. Lesnikowski et al., 2013). The findings from these studies demonstrate the similarities and differences in information that can be gathered from different kinds of data sources.
methodologies are particularly effective in identifying adaptation gaps within or between sectors and across scales of governance. In Austin et al. (in review), we applied a systematic review of grey literature in the Canadian public health sector to assess federal, provincial, territorial, and municipal adaptation to the health impacts of climate change. Federal health adaptation initiatives were found to generally emphasize capacity building and gathering information to address primarily general health, infectious disease and heat-related risks. Under Canada’s jurisdictional structure, responsibility for health and environment fall to the provinces and territories, limiting the federal role, yet provincial and territorial adaptation is widely varied. The province of Quebec emerges as a leader in climate change adaptation, stemming from a supportive political climate, stable funding and public willingness. Most other provinces and territories have adaptation plans but are still in the early stages of adaptation, implementing few health adaptation initiatives. Adaptation in Canada’s six largest municipalities is piece-meal and ad-hoc. Some cities have implemented coordinated approaches to health adaptation, while others have yet to develop adaptation plans. Provincial and territorial adaptation also does not appear to exert a strong influence on municipal adaptation: Quebec is a leader in provincial adaptation, while Montreal, Quebec’s largest city, reported few health focused adaptations; British Columbia has implemented few health adaptation initiatives, but its largest city Vancouver is progressing autonomously.
Ford et al. (2011) & Lesnikowski et al. (2011) Austin et al. (2015) Summary Summaries Systematic adaptation tracking
Drivers of Adaptation
Berrang-Ford et al. (2014) Summary
A key focus of adaptation tracking work conducted todate is the identification and characterization of adaptation actions being undertaken. Increasingly we are beginning to ask: what drives adaptation? In one of the first studies of its kind in the adaptation field, TRAC3 collaborators, amongst others, we tested whether theorized determinants of adaptive capacity are associated with adaptation policy outcomes at the national level for 117 nations (BerrangFord et al., 2014). The research shows that institutional capacity, in particular measures of good governance, are the strongest predictors of national adaptation policy. Adaptation at the national level is limited in countries with poor governance, and in the absence of good governance other presumed determinants of adaptive capacity show limited effect on adaptation. The work highlights the importance of institutional good governance as a prerequisite for national adaptation, with other elements of theorized adaptive capacity unlikely to be sufficient, effective, or present at the national level where national institutions and governance are poor.
Barriers to Adaptation
Massey, Biesbroek et al. (2014) Summary
Where there are drivers of adaptation there are also numerous factors that complicate adaptation. These barriers are increasingly being studied to understand how they can be addressed in practice. Research in Europe shows that while external factors (e.g. extreme weather events, international policies) are important drivers of country engagement in adaptation, internal barriers have a stronger influence on whether countries really start adapting. Findings from Massey, Biesbroek et al (2014) suggest that lack of resources, lack of political awareness
and lack of institutional capacity are the three key internal barriers. External barriers, including connection to other countries, EU policies, and language barriers, exercised a significantly lower influence on national adaptation decisions. In addition, adopting a national policy does not automatically translate into action on the ground as it can merely be symbolic policy. Prutsch, Biesbroek et al. (in review) suggest that in Europe the move from policy planning to adaptation implementation is confronted by serious barriers, making implementation a key hurdle. These findings suggest that efforts to enable countries to adapt are largely determined by different ideas on how to overcome the barriers, for example by learning from experiences or encouraging innovative practices. Continuously tracking progress on adaptation is, therefore, necessary to see if attempts to overcome barriers are effective.
Adaptation Tracking for a Post-2015 Climate Agreement Ford et al. (2015) Summary
A post-2015 climate agreement will require systematic approaches for tracking adaptation progress across Parties to the UNFCCC. A number of steps need to be taken to improve adaptation measurement and reporting herein, including: the development of an operational definition of adaptation; Parties need to decide what information needs to be tracked; an adaptation baseline is required; and systematic reporting on adaptation is needed.
Adopting a national policy does not automatically translate in action on the ground
Key Publications Berrang-Ford, L., Ford, J., Lesnikowski, A., Poutiainen, C., Barrera, M., and
Heymann, S.J. (2014). What drives national adaptation? A global assessment. Climatic Change Letters 124 (1-2), 441-450. Biesbroek, G. R., Klostermann, J. E. M., Termeer, C. J. A. M., & Kabat, P. (2013). On the nature of barriers to climate change adaptation. Regional Environmental Change, 13(5), 1119-1129. Ford, J. D., & King, D. (2015). A framework for examining adaptation readiness. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 1-22. Ford, J. D., Berrang-Ford, L., Biesbroek, R., Araos, M., Austin, S. E., & Lesnikowski, A. (2015). Adaptation tracking for a post-2015 climate agreement. Nature Climate Change, 5(11), 967-969. Massey, E., Biesbroek, R., Huitema, D., & Jordan, A. (2014). Climate policy innovation: The adoption and diffusion of adaptation policies across Europe. Global Environmental Change.
New York City, United States: Hurricane Sandy 2012 Photo by Metropolitan Transport Authority / Patrick Cashin (Flickr)
The Paris Agreement takes a significant step forward in strengthening the adaptation pillar of global climate policy.
Key Publications Ford, J., Maillet, M., Pouliot, V., Cavanaugh, A., and IHACC Research Team (in press). Adaptation and Indigenous Peoples in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Climatic Change. Lesnikowski, A., Ford, J. D., Biesbroek, R., Berrang-Ford, L., Maillet, M., Araos, M., & Austin, S. E. (in press). What does the Paris Agreement mean for adaptation? Climate Policy. Tilleard, S., and Ford, J. (2016). Adaptation readiness and adaptive capacity of transboundary river basins. Climatic Change,137(3), 575-591.
Fort McMurray, Canada: Wildfire 2016 Photo by Premier of Alberta (Flickr)
Indigenous peoples and the UNFCCC Ford et al. (in press) Summary
Indigenous peoples are uniquely sensitive to climate change impacts yet have been overlooked in climate policy, including within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This paper identified and characterized the discourse around adaptation in the UNFCCC, examining implications for Indigenous peoples based on a critical discourse analysis of the original Convention and decision texts from subsequent Conference of the Parties (CP). CP16 in Cancun (2010) was a critical juncture after which adaptation emerged as a central component of climate policy in the Convention, with a shift from a purely scientific approach to adaptation to one where local, Indigenous, and traditional knowledge are also valued. Since CP16, the discursive space for incorporating the voices, needs, and priorities of Indigenous peoples around adaptation has expanded, reflected in decision texts and engagement with Indigenous issues in the work streams of relevant bodies. We outline opportunities for greater engagement of Indigenous issues in the UNFCCC postParis Agreement, noting the underlying State-centric nature of the Convention limits what can ultimately be achieved.
Adaptation Readiness
Tilleard & Ford (2016) Summary
This paper developed an indicator-based evaluation framework to identify transboundary river basins where the need for adaptation support is pronounced and prioritize where attention is best placed. The framework combined indicators which capture the broad level potential to adapt (adaptive capacity) and the actual preparedness for adaptation (adaptation readiness) at the level of transboundary institutions. The framework was
applied to 42 transboundary basins globally. The research shows there is widespread need for improving national and transboundary institutional support for adaptation spanning basins, and while many transboundary basins in Africa have low adaptive capacity they were also found to have high readiness to begin adapting if resources were available.
The Paris Agreement and Adaptation Lesnikowski et al. (in press) Summary
The Paris Agreement takes a significant step forward in strengthening the adaptation pillar of global climate policy. By widening the normative framing around adaptation, calling for stronger adaptation commitments from states, being explicit about the multilevel nature of adaptation governance, and outlining stronger transparency mechanisms for assessing adaptation progress, the Agreement is a milestone in ongoing efforts to make adaptation an equal priority with mitigation. Significant work remains to be done, however, to clarify how the long-term goal for adaptation set out in Article 7 will be meaningfully realized. The challenge for Parties in implementing the Paris Agreement will be to establish credible commitments from state and non-state actors with regard to adaptation planning, implementation, and financing.
Big Data and Adaptation Ford et al. (2016) Summary
The capacity to collect and analyse massive amounts of data is transforming research in the natural and social sciences. Potential applications of such ‘big data’ for climate change adaptation research and decision making are significant yet unexplored. This paper examined how big data can inform adaptation research and decisionmaking, and outlined what’s needed from the adaptation community to maximize this opportunity. Specifically, three areas were outlined as being particularly promising for big data applications: i). vulnerability assessment, where big data can help fill in gaps in understanding vulnerability processes and drivers; ii). early warning, where passively collected data from the use of digital services can be used to monitor climate related threats and vulnerabilities, and can provide real time awareness and feedback to decision makers and emergency services; and iii). monitoring and evaluation where big data can be used to examine the effectiveness of adaptation interventions. Careful application of ‘big data’ could revolutionize our understanding on how to manage the risks of climate change, yet the adaptation community is currently illprepared to take on the challenge.
Future Projects
The McGill-Wageningen-Leeds University based TRAC3 is a founding partner of the Adaptation Tracking Collaborative (ATC) along with the University of California Los Angeles, and the Universities of Notre Dame & Minnesota. Collaborators include Yale University, Ruprecht-Karls-Universität, ND-GAIN, IIED, IISD, ICCCAD, and UKCIP. The ATC seeks to develop standards, methodologies, indicators, and baselines for systematically identifying, characterizing, and comparing adaptation across nations and over time. The ATC has a long-term vision for examining adaptation progress across local to global scales, with the first two years of the initiative (2015-2017) focused on developing a next generation global-scale Adaptation Index 2.0. The focus on index development reflects identified needs by the UNFCCC and national governments for systematic and standardized means of assessing adaptation from which future progress can be monitored and evaluated at the national level globally, different nations, regions, and sectors compared, and results communicated. While a number of adaptation indices exits, none focus on measuring tangible changes to decision making and governance processes.
The Adaptation Tracking Collaborative (ATC) has a long-term vision for examining adaptation progress across local to global scales.
Key Publications Ford, J. D., Tilleard, S. E., Berrang-Ford, L., Araos, M., Biesbroek, R., Lesnikowski, A. C., ... & Bizikova, L. (2016). Big data has big potential for applications to climate change adaptation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113(39), 10729-10732..
Gonaives, Haiti: Hurricane Tomas 2010 Photo by United Nations Photo (Flickr)
About TRAC3 TRAC3 was created in 2014 by Drs Ford, Berrang-Ford, and Biesbroek to tackle the challenges of adaptation tracking. Combining separate but complementary research efforts on the topic, and integrating expertise from geography, political science, and epidemiology, TRAC3 seeks to: develop and test new scientific conceptualisations of adaptation; develop new and innovative methodologies for tracking adaptation across nations, regions, and sectors; build empirical datasets of adaptation actions in multiple contexts; catalyze research on adaptation tracking at various scales; inform assessments on the state of adaptation at national and regional levels; and provide strategic advice to the public and private sectors on gaps and needs in adaptation policy and action. TRAC3 is currently based out of McGill University in Canada and Wageningen University in the Netherlands. As of summer 2017, the McGill component will relocate to the Priestley International Centre for Climate at the University of Leeds.
TRAC3 Main Collaborators Dr. Lea Berrang Ford McGill University Priestley International Centre for Climate Univeresity of Leeds www.leaberrangford.ca lea.berrangford@mcgill.ca Dr. Robbert Biesbroek Wageningen University & Research Wageningen, the Netherlands robbert.biesbroek@wur.nl
Dr. James Ford McGill University Priestley International Centre for Climate University of Leeds www.jamesford.ca For more information, visit: james.ford@mcgill.ca www.trac3.ca Twitter: @tradaptccc Designed by Stephanie Austin Cover Photo by U.S. Air Force / Master Sgt. Mark C. Olsen (Flickr) (New Jersey, United States: Hurricane Sandy 2012) 2016