Participatory
Scenario planning [ in the Arctic ] A background on using the participatory scenario planning approach in Arctic climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability research. Flynn et al. 2017.
Traditional Livelihoods
Resource Management & Extraction
29%
21%
Sectors using scenario planning
Other
6%
Health
19%
Tourism
8%
Community Planning
Shipping
8%
9%
*N=43
THERE ARE TWO TYPES OF SCENARIO APPROACH
84%
Forecasting
16%
Considering the future from the vantage point of the present
BAckcasting
Creating a desirable future situation & identifying steps to achieve that future
6
Though most studies identified used the forecasting approach... We found that the backcasting approach had higher community participation
Stages of scenario planning Which stages did the studies complete?
1
Gather context
2
Identify key drivers
3
Create Scenario
4
Review scenario
5
Identify options
6
Rate options Completed without community participation
Legend
Completed with community participation
USE OF TRADITIONAL KNOWLEDGE 67% Of studies utilized local (LK) or traditional knowledge (TK)...
Not completed
KEY CHALLENGES Time taken to complete the process Large distances to travel to reach community Difficulty in integrating LK/TK Difficulty in integrating global data with local data Limited data availability
...Though some studies identified challenges in integrating LK or TK in the process soURCE:
Requires significant financial input
Flynn M., J. D. Ford, T. Pearce, S. L. Harper & IHACC Team. 2017. Participatory scenario planning and climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability research in the Arctic. Environmental Science and Policy.. 79, 45–53. doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2017.10.012