N O M I N AT E D H O R S E R A C I N G B O O K M A K E R O F T H E Y E A R • F I T Z D A R E S. C O M • S E V E N T H E D I T I O N , C H R I S T M A S 2 0 1 7 • S T R I C T LY N O U N D E R 18 s
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Alex MacDonald investigates the data revolution behind the search for future superstars ootball, to use a cliché, has gone mad. This year we have seen a summer transfer window where Premier League clubs spent more than £1.5bn, smashing the record set in 2016. Meanwhile, not satisfied with breaking the transfer fee record for Neymar, Paris SaintGermain obtained the services of arguably the world’s hottest prospect, Kylian Mbappé, for a loan to buy in the region of £165m. Mbappé is 18 years old. At this rate, players will soon be signed on the quality of their kick in the womb. But has football really gone mad? Behind these seemingly rash signings of relatively unproven teenagers is the most rational, logical methodology: reams and reams of cold, hard data. Our era is one of ‘Big Data’, in which the amount of data on earth more than doubles every two years, but the mystery is how to use all these numbers. As Chris Anderson and David Sally wrote in their seminal book The Numbers Game, “The datafication of life has started to infiltrate football.” Indeed, how long will it be before we look at football not just as a contest between two teams and managers, but as a battle between the respective brain
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trusts in the two analytics labs? All 20 clubs in the Premier League employ data analysts to make sense of this information. Manchester City have 11 of them. Purists suspect that football has been taken over by ‘spreadsheet-wielding boffins’ who believe footballers can be ‘datafied’ into numbers, crunched and scanned for patterns.
The millions involved mean clubs look into every area of a young player’s life before putting pen near paper. However, Woody Dewar, Under-18s coach at Manchester City, states: “All the top European coaches use statistics, but football is still a long way from being a science, it’s still an art. Data is having an increasing part to play in football; however, it is still a long way from being dictated solely by it.” Data can be used to effectively narrow down the search for potential ‘wonderkids’ based on key performance indicators (KPIs) such as physical size or pass completion rate, before scouts are sent out to watch them. If there is one shining example of
meticulous data and stats harvesting, one name rings out: Sports Interactive (SI), the team behind the iconic Football Manager game franchise. The series is more than a faithful virtual simulation of football, it is an invaluably deep reservoir for its real-life counterpart. It is made by 1,300 scouts in 51 countries and boasts the largest database in football, of more than 350,000 active players, each with 250 playing and mental attributes. To put that into perspective, Manchester City (or the City Football Group, with its four clubs) have 40 scouts globally. The pure accuracy with which SI has been representing a young player’s ability (and indeed potential ability) for 25 years is scary – often unearthing gems years before the real-life footballing world takes stock of them (think the teenaged Kompany, Aguero, Falcao, Robben, Ibrahimovic, De Bruyne, Bale, and of course Messi). Yet if you delve into the painstaking methods utilised by SI, and their deep data network, then it becomes less surprising. The fact that some of SI’s scouts and researchers have gone on to work as chief scouts for major Champions League clubs is a testament to their ability. They have
partnerships with top clubs, and managers admit to using the database to find players. A man at the heart of SI’s analytics machine is Stephen Davidson, who offers insight into the way they, and clubs, identify football’s next big star. “Data analysis is most powerful when used as part of a larger portfolio of scouting,” he says. “Raw data, used intelligently, can help a scouting department focus on young players.” However, “Whilst Mbappé and Gabriel Jesus may have appealed because of performances at young ages, clubs wouldn’t simply act because the data looks promising.” couting the next big star is all about building up as comprehensive a picture as possible of a person, and the millions involved mean clubs look into every area of a young player’s life before putting pen anywhere near paper, Davidson explains: “Previous form, evidence of the eyes, post-match analytics, social media, fan forums, biographical information, anecdotes from teammates, former coaches and staff at previous clubs, marketability, media persona, relationships, medical →
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