October Market Insights - Nantucket Real Estate

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE Market Insights BY JEN ALLEN MONTHLY SALES HIGHLIGHTS

HIGHEST COMMERCIAL SALE

HIGHEST RESIDENTIAL SALE

$23,500,000

$28,899,984

$2,050,000

THE NANTUCKET INN PRIVATELY MARKETED

8 GRAND AVENUE MARKETED FOR [873 Days]

KEY MARKET STATISTICS

REVIEW

ALL PROPERTY TYPES

FY 2021

Transactions

The Nantucket real estate market

$1,340,126

35% d

$1,131,429

6.6

-39% f

6

96%

94%

2d

94%

Active Listings (Oct)

114

281

-59% f

320

Months Supply of Inventory

1.8

6.3

-72% f

10

New Contracts (Oct)

52

112

-54% f

62

445

$1,802,997 4

Sale Price to Last Ask Price

end sales and an impressive array of commercial property transfers (see above). Monthly sales included 81 transactions totaling $343

5-YEAR AVG.

421

590

Avg. Months on Market

October, with several notable high-

% CHANGE YOY

33% d

Dollar Volume ($in 000s)

continued to fire on all cylinders in

FY 2020

million, the third highest monthly dollar volume in Nantucket history

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE ACTIVITY

bested only by 2020 figures. On a

THROUGH OCTOBER 2011–21

cumulative basis for the 10 months ending October 31, 2021, there were 590 property transfers totaling $1.8 billion. Single-family homes sales homes sold, as rapid marketing times and minimal discounts continued.

Inventory levels reached new depths

# of Transactions

hit record numbers, with nearly 400

Dollar Volume

OCT 21

7 HINCKLEY LANE PRIVATELY MARKETED

FISHER’S

LONGEST MARKETED PROPERTY

while contract activity appeared to be adversely affected by limited property supply. Here are Fisher’s October Market Insights.

Dollar Volume per Quarter

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 YTD

# of Transactions

© 2 0 2 1 F I S H E R R E A L E S TAT E

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

1

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE Market Insights

BY JEN ALLEN

SINGLE-FAMILY DATA REVIEW

RESIDENTIAL SALES ANALYSIS

HIGH-END RESIDENTIAL SALES ANALYSIS

RAPID MARKETING TIMES & VIBRANT HIGH-END

RECORD SETTING ULTRA-HIGH-END SALES

2021

Total Transactions Total Sales Dollar Volume

% Change

$5M–$10M

5-Year Avg (2017-21)

389

345

13% d

302

$1,402,068,612

$1,182,201,037

19% d

$931,338,407

>$10M

Transactions

Total Sales Volume

Transactions

2011

7

$41,020,000

1

Total Sales Volume

$11,800,000

2012

14

$98,300,000

2

$29,800,000 $80,029,000

Avg. Selling Price

$3,604,289

$3,426,670

5% d

$3,008,872

Median Selling Price

2013

$2,800,000

$2,575,000

9% d

$2,194,500

8

$58,766,300

6

2014

4.0

7.0

-44% f

6.0

16

$98,887,500

5

$66,137,500

2015

11

$73,648,875

6

$82,000,000

Avg. Price as % of Last Ask

96%

94%

2d

94%

2016

18

$123,185,502

7

$90,525,000

Avg. Price as % of Original Ask

94%

89%

5d

91%

2017

23

$158,752,750

8

$101,290,000

Avg. Price as % of Assessed Value

158%

131%

27d

135%

2018

29

$186,472,000

8

$107,640,000

2019

24

$160,585,000

2

$30,670,000

2020

55

$351,427,175

10

$175,372,500

2021

49

$338,084,150

18

$260,040,000

Avg. Months on Market

•

•

OCT 21

2020

•

Single-family home sales (excluding condos, co-ops & covenant properties) during the month of October measured 59 transactions totaling $271 million. Although this represents a 31 percent and 13 percent respective decline from October 2020 figures, the dollar volume remains among the highest posted during this period thanks to a plethora of high-end transactions. This activity brought the yearto-date total to 389 single-family home sales totaling $1.4 billion through October 31, 2021, a 13 percent and 19 percent increase from one year ago, the previous best market on record.

The fourth quarter is typically when the Nantucket market sees the bulk of its high-end transaction activity and 2021 has been no exception (more in the next section). With 16 sales between $10 million and $20 million, the average home sale price rose five percent to $3.6 million, while the median home sale value jumped nine percent to $2.8 million. This represents a respective 20 percent and 28 percent increase in these metrics over the five-year average.

October property sales were notable not just for high-end transactions but also for a continued, rapid decline in marketing times. On average, properties that sold in October were marketed for 105 days, nearly two months faster than one year ago and slightly faster than the year-to-date average of 120 days. The speed at which properties are transacting has also resulted in reduced negotiability. Homes traded for an average of 96 percent of their last list price and 94 percent of the original price thanks to an increasing number of full price sales.

•

October sales continued to illustrate what has been another exceptional year for the high-end of the market. There were nine transactions between $5 million and $10 million, four ultra-high-end sales between $10 million and $20 million and two mega-high-end sales above $20 million. These transactions contributed nearly $150 million to monthly sales volume and included a new high mark for a non-waterfront, non-waterview property with the $23.5 million transfer of 7 Hinckley Lane.

•

As of October 31, 2021, there were 49 property transactions between $5 million and $10 million, nearly double the historic activity during this period prior to 2020, but slightly lower than what we saw one year ago. The ultra-high-end segment, however, is poised to set a new annual record for the number of transactions. So far this year there have been 18 transactions compared to just 10 in 2020. These sales contributed $260 million to aggregate sales volume, nearly $100 million more than this time last year. A total of 14 transactions were recorded in this segment of the market for 2020 so we shall see what the remainder of 2021 holds.

•

These transactions aided in continuing to lower high-end inventory and have resulted in many brokers needing to seek off-market opportunities for their high-end buyer clients. In fact, both $20M+ residential sales were for properties that were not actively listed.

MARKET INDICATORS

NANTUCKET PROPERTY INVENTORY

CONTRACT ACTIVITY

INVENTORY PLUMMETED TO NEW LOWS

NEW PURCHASES DECLINED TO NORMAL LEVELS

August

•

In broken record news, property inventory remained severely pressured by robust demand and plummeted to new depths. As of October 31, 2021, there were just 114 properties listed for sale including residential, commercial, and vacant land listings. This represented a decline of 59 percent from one year ago when there were 281 properties listed for sale. The total months’ supply, or how long it would take to sell all listings based on trailing 12-month sales, measured two months for residential properties, less than one month for vacant land and three months for commercial properties.

•

Every price point had markedly less inventory than one year ago. The $2 million to $3 million segment saw the largest year-over-year decline while the $3 million to $4 million price point was also considerably lower. Despite healthy activity in the ultra-high-end of the market, year-overyear inventory levels did not materially change. As of October 31, 2021, there were 11 properties listed for sale in this price point compared to 13 properties one year ago.

September

October

•

It appears that October new purchase activity was significantly hampered by limited property supply. This has been a developing trend over the last few months as noted in the above chart.

Recorded contracts (Offers to Purchase and Purchase & Sale Contracts excluding duplicates) for the monthly period ending October 31, 2021, totaled just 52 properties, down from the 112 reported one year ago and down from 61 contracts just one month ago. For the first time in nearly 18 months, monthly contract activity trailed the same period in 2019.

•

Most of the contracts booked in October, 29 percent, were for properties last priced between $2 million and $3 million, slightly higher than the 23 percent for this segment in 2020. New contracts for properties listed between $3 million and $4 million increased quite handsomely, while sales above $5 million continued to show solid activity as we approach year’s end.

•

Considering preliminary November sales data and the future sales pipeline, the Nantucket market may well nudge up to the $2 billion mark for full-year volume.

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

2

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE Market Insights

BY JEN ALLEN

RESIDENTIAL SALES ANALYSIS RAPID MARKETING TIMES & VIBRANT HIGH-END

2021

Total Transactions

% Change

5-Year Avg (2017-21)

389

345

13% d

302

$1,402,068,612

$1,182,201,037

19% d

$931,338,407

Avg. Selling Price

$3,604,289

$3,426,670

5% d

$3,008,872

Median Selling Price

$2,800,000

$2,575,000

9% d

$2,194,500

4.0

7.0

-44% f

6.0

Avg. Price as % of Last Ask

96%

94%

2d

94%

Avg. Price as % of Original Ask

94%

89%

5d

91%

Avg. Price as % of Assessed Value

158%

131%

27d

135%

Total Sales Dollar Volume

Avg. Months on Market

OCT 21

2020

•

Single-family home sales (excluding condos, co-ops & covenant properties) during the month of October measured 59 transactions totaling $271 million. Although this represents a 31 percent and 13 percent respective decline from October 2020 figures, the dollar volume remains among the highest posted during this period thanks to a plethora of high-end transactions. This activity brought the year-to-date total to 389 single-family home sales totaling $1.4 billion through October 31, 2021, a 13 percent and 19 percent increase from one year ago, the previous best market on record.

•

The fourth quarter is typically when the Nantucket market sees the bulk of its high-end transaction activity and 2021 has been no exception (more in the next section). With 16 sales between $10 million and $20 million, the average home sale price rose five percent to $3.6 million, while the median home sale value jumped nine percent to $2.8 million. This represents a respective 20 percent and 28 percent increase in these metrics over the five-year average.

•

October property sales were notable not just for high-end transactions but also for a continued, rapid decline in marketing times. On average, properties that sold in October were marketed for 105 days, nearly two months faster than one year ago and slightly faster than the year-to-date average of 120 days. The speed at which properties are transacting has also resulted in reduced negotiability. Homes traded for an average of 96 percent of their last list price and 94 percent of the original price thanks to an increasing number of full price sales.

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

3

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE Market Insights

BY JEN ALLEN

HIGH-END RESIDENTIAL SALES ANALYSIS RECORD SETTING ULTRA-HIGH-END SALES

OCT 21

$5M–$10M

>$10M

Transactions

Total Sales Volume

Transactions

Total Sales Volume

2011

7

$41,020,000

1

$11,800,000

2012

14

$98,300,000

2

$29,800,000

2013

8

$58,766,300

6

$80,029,000

2014

16

$98,887,500

5

$66,137,500

2015

11

$73,648,875

6

$82,000,000

2016

18

$123,185,502

7

$90,525,000

2017

23

$158,752,750

8

$101,290,000

2018

29

$186,472,000

8

$107,640,000

2019

24

$160,585,000

2

$30,670,000

2020

55

$351,427,175

10

$175,372,500

2021

49

$338,084,150

18

$260,040,000

•

October sales continued to illustrate what has been another exceptional year for the high-end of the market. There were nine transactions between $5 million and $10 million, four ultra-high-end sales between $10 million and $20 million and two mega-high-end sales above $20 million. These transactions contributed nearly $150 million to monthly sales volume and included a new high mark for a nonwaterfront, non-waterview property with the $23.5 million transfer of 7 Hinckley Lane.

•

As of October 31, 2021, there were 49 property transactions between $5 million and $10 million, nearly double the historic activity during this period prior to 2020, but slightly lower than what we saw one year ago. The ultra-high-end segment, however, is poised to set a new annual record for the number of transactions. So far this year there have been 18 transactions compared to just 10 in 2020. These sales contributed $260 million to aggregate sales volume, nearly $100 million more than this time last year. A total of 14 transactions were recorded in this segment of the market for 2020 so we shall see what the remainder of 2021 holds.

•

These transactions aided in continuing to lower high-end inventory and have resulted in many brokers needing to seek off-market opportunities for their high-end buyer clients. In fact, both $20M+ residential sales were for properties that were not actively listed.

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

4

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE Market Insights

BY JEN ALLEN

NANTUCKET PROPERTY INVENTORY

OCT 21

INVENTORY PLUMMETED TO NEW LOWS

•

In broken record news, property inventory remained severely pressured by robust demand and plummeted to new depths. As of October 31, 2021, there were just 114 properties listed for sale including residential, commercial, and vacant land listings. This represented a decline of 59 percent from one year ago when there were 281 properties listed for sale. The total months’ supply, or how long it would take to sell all listings based on trailing 12-month sales, measured two months for residential properties, less than one month for vacant land and three months for commercial properties.

•

Every price point had markedly less inventory than one year ago. The $2 million to $3 million segment saw the largest year-over-year decline while the $3 million to $4 million price point was also considerably lower. Despite healthy activity in the ultra-high-end of the market, year-over-year inventory levels did not materially change. As of October 31, 2021, there were 11 properties listed for sale in this price point compared to 13 properties one year ago.

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

5

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE Market Insights

BY JEN ALLEN

CONTRACT ACTIVITY

OCT 21

NEW PURCHASES DECLINED TO NORMAL LEVELS

August

September

October

•

It appears that October new purchase activity was significantly hampered by limited property supply.

This has been a developing trend over the last few months as noted in the above chart. Recorded contracts (Offers to Purchase and Purchase & Sale Contracts excluding duplicates) for the monthly period ending October 31, 2021, totaled just 52 properties, down from the 112 reported one year ago and down from 61 contracts just one month ago. For the first time in nearly 18 months, monthly contract activity trailed the same period in 2019.

•

Most of the contracts booked in October, 29 percent, were for properties last priced between $2 million and $3 million, slightly higher than the 23 percent for this segment in 2020. New contracts for properties listed between $3 million and $4 million increased quite handsomely, while sales above $5 million continued to show solid activity as we approach year’s end.

•

Considering preliminary November sales data and the future sales pipeline, the Nantucket market may well nudge up to the $2 billion mark for full-year volume.

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

6