Thought Leadership report - Booming Birmingham

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Booming Birmingham: A golden decade

of opportunity

Birmingham City Council’s ‘Our Future City Plan’ sets out a bold framework for the evolution of the city up to 2040.

Only 15 years away, we examine the route map for delivery, reflecting on lessons from the previous ‘Big City Plan’, potential challenges and roadblocks, and what 2040 could look like in Birmingham.

For more information on ‘Our Future City Plan’

This report contains information, which may be helpful in anticipating trends in the property sector, however, no warranty is given as to the accuracy of, and no liability for negligence is accepted in relation to, the forecasts, figures or conclusions contained in this report. They must not be relied on for investment or any other purposes. © 2024 Fisher German

p4–5

Stuart Flint

Together we can unlock the potential of this great city

p12–15

James Routledge

Focus on the centre, the rest will follow

p22–25

John Ikin

Effective land acquisition is vital for delivering the 2040 Plan

p6–7

Mike Price

Don’t forget about industry in the city of the future

p16–17

Charles Warrack

The 2040 Plan is important, but it can’t do everything

p26–27

Arthur Morgan

Close viability gaps and minimise risk to deliver a new residential vision

p8–11

Rob Champion

Reimagining

Birmingham’s transport network

p18–21

Sarah DeRenzy Tomson

‘The Big City Plan’ did the heavy lifting, now to take the strategic vision to the next level

Together we can unlock the potential of this great city

As England’s second city, Birmingham must thrive. If the UK economy is to grow, if we are to build genuine competitive advantage, drive innovation, and create opportunity for all, it must happen in Birmingham.

The city has a plan to build public-private partnerships, drive investment, and build the infrastructure needed to enable growth— ‘Our Future City Plan’ 2040.

At its heart is a vision to transform the city centre into a vibrant, green metropolis where people live in greater density, as well as work and spend their leisure time. A true global city which reflects Birmingham’s youth and diversity.

‘Our Future City Plan’ is bold and ambitious. It reflects the city’s motto—‘Forward’.

Without doubt there are challenges ahead. Technology is a great unknown and the ideas of the future range from driverless cars to drones, from emphasising the personal connection to ever greater virtual collaboration. Birmingham can be in the boardrooms of New York, Mumbai, or Tokyo at the click of a button. Even with a plan in place the precise route map to 2040 remains, to a degree, uncertain.

We will need to find solutions to problems we don’t yet know exist, and exploit opportunities we have not yet considered.

At Fisher German, we sense a city brimming with opportunity and have chosen to locate and invest in the city centre. Our new office on Colmore Row —in the heart of the city’s business district—will be a hub for our multi-disciplinary team to serve our clients in Birmingham and further afield.

We recognise that Birmingham is a city with an exciting future, and we want to both be part of it and help shape it.

With perspectives from the residential, commercial, industrial, and investor markets – spanning planning, agency, property management, compulsory purchase, infrastructure, development consultancy and much more, our experts have offered their perspectives on Birmingham’s route map to 2040. They have shared their vision for the future city, the challenges ahead, the unanswered questions, the practical next steps, and the shape of the prize.

We are also pleased and grateful to have contributions from many of those at the coal face

The Plan is bold and ambitious. It reflects the city’s motto—‘Forward’.

of regeneration and development in Birmingham —from Howells, Bruntwood, Calthorpe Estates, Stoford and Birmingham City Council.

Their generosity reflects a professional community which is defined by collaboration and shared goals. We are experts, but we cannot predict the future, nor do we have a monopoly on wisdom. Challenge us, debate with us, and together we are confident we can work together to unlock the potential of this great city.

Our ambition and our potential are enormous.

Our future city vision will seek to drive inclusive growth from the centre, but ensuring the whole city is included, through ground-breaking initiatives such as the East Birmingham North Solihull Levelling Up Zone and the Investment Zone, both of which are being delivered with the support of the West Midlands Combined Authority.

A focus on suitable employment, skills and health improvements, building on our local talent pool, and working with some of our universities and key businesses, will all come from this document.

It needs to be more than a vision of the future. It must be an implementable strategy for our city, with robust delivery and risk management, to ensure we optimise the outcomes for all our citizens and businesses.

We must ensure we work with like-minded partners to deliver it.

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Don’t forget about industry in the city of the future

Mike is a Partner and Head of our Commercial Transactional team. He is a well respected industrial property specialist who has acted across the Midlands for in excess of 25 years.

Birmingham has an exceptional pedigree as an industrial city. However, like many such cities, over the decades Birmingham has shifted to a services-led economy.

‘The Big City Plan’, adopted in 2010, accelerated this change and defined much of the city centre we know today. Breaking the inner ring road, the subsequent regeneration of Paradise and the expansion of Eastside, for example, have been defined by this strategy.

The 2040 ‘Our Future City Plan’ will continue to shape the growth of the city centre, with a greater emphasis on residential and a diversity of city centre uses.

However, the 2040 Plan does little to shape future industrial or logistics requirements. In fact, there is a general assumption that many established industrial areas in the city centre will be regenerated, and industry will gradually move further out. Digbeth is a prime example.

Of course, this will happen if we simply allow the market to dictate growth. A Plan like this, however, is designed to guide the market in a way which benefits the whole.

Take logistics requirements. The tens of thousands of new residents in Birmingham city centre, foreseen by the 2040 Plan, will demand deliveries right to their home. Last mile delivery solutions will be critical to the way in which we live our lives.

These clusters should be protected and enhanced. It means planning now for the infrastructure such industry will need—transport, people, and power.

Without proper thought as to how physical products will be stored and move around the city, we will not be able to keep pace with people’s lifestyles.

It is possible that future technology could find solutions. There has been promising progress made in drone technology, for example, but it is difficult to envisage a city which does not still rely on commercial vehicles—whether powered by electricity, hydrogen, or fossil fuels.

Likewise, there are historic industries which are built on economies of agglomeration, such as in the Jewellery Quarter. These clusters should be protected and enhanced. It means planning now for the infrastructure such industry will need –transport, people, and power.

The 2040 ‘Our Future City Plan’ has bold ambition, and in many areas is a comprehensive and thoughtful vision of Birmingham’s future. Nevertheless, without fully planning for industrial and logistics requirements we will be unable to meet the demands of future businesses and residents.

The tens of thousands of new residents in Birmingham city centre, foreseen by the 2040 Plan, will demand deliveries right to their home.
Mike Price Partner and Head of Commercial Transactional
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“The start of this transport revolution has already begun.”

Reimagining Birmingham’s transport network

Rob is a Partner in the Commercial and Development Agency teams acting for a wide spectrum of clients from private individuals through to institutional funds and listed property companies.

At the heart of the 2040 ‘Our Future City Plan’ is the reimagining of Birmingham’s transport network, with a focus on the use of cars within the city. This is not an easy task. The city’s historic planning philosophy has prioritised the use of private and commercial vehicles, resulting in the city being dependent on how cars move through the urban core.

Transforming what is in effect a concrete collar around the city into a rewilded ribbon is a positive long-term ambition, and one which needs to be delivered in collaboration with the private sector.

Alongside the transformation of the city’s road network will come a marked increase in the density of development within the city. This will mean greater demands on the city’s transport network. The ease and availability by which people can access public and alternative transport is vital for ensuring that the city remains an attractive destination to live, work and do business.

The start of this transport revolution has already begun. The establishment and extensions to the metro network, the introduction of the clean air zone, and expansion of cycle paths show a clear direction. However, long-term strategic planning and investment are still needed.

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This includes paying close attention to how the logistics industry will operate within the city. With the plan not only expanding the defined reach of the city centre but also incentivising greater delivery of mixed-use developments of increasing density, the demands and needs on the movements of goods will grow significantly. Against this growth will be the reimagining of established vehicle routes – routes which the logistics industry currently relies on. Balancing how and when changes to the transport network are delivered is therefore vital to ensuring Birmingham remains an attractive and liveable city.

The strength of any city, and the extent to which it is an attractive destination for investment, depends on how intuitive and easy it is for citizens and businesses to move and operate within the urban environment. The successful delivery of the 2040 Plan will therefore depend on Birmingham City Council, the West Midlands Combined Authority (WMCA) and the private sector working closely together to reimagine the transport network while still ensuring it serves its citizens and businesses effectively.

‘Our Future City Plan’ is an ambitious plan for an ambitious city. The incredibly successful Commonwealth Games showcased Birmingham to the world and shone a spotlight on all that the city has to offer.

The 2040 Plan amplifies the opportunities and provides clear growth areas for Birmingham, at a time when broader UK growth is a struggle.

At Calthorpe Estates our vision in Edgbaston is to create exceptional places and that is exactly what ‘Our Future City Plan ‘promotes. The ‘City of Growth’ aim is inclusive and broadens the reach of the city centre, benefitting far more inhabitants.

I am excited by the prospects of investment to deliver new homes, better healthcare and additional jobs. The ‘City of Nature’ aim makes better use of existing green infrastructure and multiplies its effect with new green spaces and corridors, improving wellbeing, sustainability and biodiversity. The ‘City of Centre and Neighbourhoods’ aim recognises the importance of community, building on distinct localities and increasing pride of place.

The private sector has a large part to play in delivering the plan and can only do so with close support from Birmingham City Council. At a financially challenging time for the council,

‘Our Future City Plan’ amplifies the opportunities and provides clear growth areas for Birmingham.

it should lean all the more on private sector investment both locally and internationally and it has the opportunity to create an environment which welcomes and facilitates investors who want to further the aims of ‘Our Future City Plan’.

This includes improving cross-city connectivity and transport infrastructure in conjunction with the West Midlands Combined Authority and ensuring alignment of ‘Our Future City Plan’ with the forthcoming Birmingham Local Plan, coupled with efficient on-the-ground planning application decisions.

This would cement Birmingham as the UK city of choice for international investment. The Framework at its core is dependent upon land, water and the built environment and the strength of connection between Birmingham City Council strategy and city planning could determine if the Framework is successful.

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Focus on the centre, the rest will follow

James is Head of Investment, with a track record of over 35 years in property investment strategy, acquisitions & disposal, property valuation and has a passion for creating value for clients through active asset management initiatives to maximise returns and futureproof client portfolios.

Birmingham has not enjoyed a stellar reputation for a vibrant and dynamic city centre over the decades.

Intersected by major roads and a focus on commercial over residential has led to the impression of an evening and weekend desert. Compare this to Manchester or Leeds and it becomes a problem for England’s second city.

continued overleaf
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Admittedly, that perception is shifting in Birmingham as the cultural and nighttime offer has expanded, helped by investment in public transport, a growing residential mix, and the successful delivery of the Commonwealth Games. However, investors, particularly international investors, are looking at comparable cities in the UK and abroad. They are looking for vibrant, dynamic, and diverse centres which draw people in and give them the confidence to invest.

The 2040 ‘Our Future City Plan’ does recognise this. It prioritises residential density and reinforces the need to shift away from the commuter, towards a model where people live and work in the city centre.

The city must work at pace to catch-up to other regional centres and surpass them. There is already a false impression that Birmingham is smaller than Manchester – its closest regional competitor.

In Manchester there are already around 16,000 Build to Rent homes in the centre, one of the great drivers of diverse residential communities. Birmingham has only 5,000—there is much to do.

False or not, Birmingham is clearly behind. In Manchester there are already around 16,000 Build to Rent homes in the centre, one of the great drivers of diverse residential communities. Birmingham has only 5,000 – there is much to do.

Of course, Birmingham is a city of diverse neighbourhoods – Bournville, Edgbaston, Druids Heath – and their economies should not be overlooked.

However, concentrating on delivering a strong ‘heart’ will inevitably deliver for the rest of the city. It is the economic driver and, when successful, attracts investment and creates jobs.

The 2040 ‘Our Future City Plan’ does recognise this. It prioritises residential density and reinforces the need to shift away from the commuter, towards a model where people live and work in the city centre.

With the right investment in infrastructure, opportunity will spill across Birmingham—not just economic, but social and cultural as well. Birmingham has much to do, but it is on the right track.

James Routledge Partner and Head of Investment
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The 2040 Plan

is important, but it can’t do everything

Charles has worked in the West Midlands for leading consultancies, specialising as an office agent, since 2000. Charles acts for a wide variety of clients, including property companies, pension funds, financial institutions, local authorities, and private high net worth individuals.

Great cities need a plan. Birmingham’s ‘Big City Plan’ had clear aims and is recognised as successful. It enabled the expansion of the city core, the delivery of New Street Station and Grand Central, the new Library, the Midland Metro, and supported HS2.

Yes, not everything envisaged in that ‘Our Future City Plan’ has been delivered but good plans also have flexibility and the ability to adapt to changing requirements and to meet new challenges.

Globally, we have gone through a period of significant change. The Covid pandemic shifted markets, perhaps for good. Combined with exponential population growth and net zero ambitions, our cities are facing a new and complex set of challenges.

In the office market, for example, requirements for new space are between 20-30% less than before the pandemic. Businesses are looking for less space but are also demanding higher quality. This trend is becoming entrenched, so we need a new approach to our city centre but one which avoids overcorrecting and undermining our commercial offer. Large corporate occupiers are looking at Birmingham, we need the space to accommodate them when they come.

Likewise, retail is changing. Smaller clusters of high-street and independent retail, nestled alongside coffee shops and other leisure users, are favoured over large American-style shopping malls.

This is where ‘Our Future City Plan’ is fundamental and sets Birmingham for success. It allows us to define the challenges, identify solutions, and shape growth in a way that enables us to succeed.

Population expansion is perhaps the biggest challenge we face. Growth relies on an expanding population, so it must be something we embrace and seek to accommodate.

As ‘Our Future City Plan’ sets out, that means more residential in the city centre – more opportunities for people to live, work, and spend time in Birmingham. It’s the right approach.

However, where the 2040 Plan falls short is its ability to plan for all the services and infrastructure a growing population needs.

With more people we need schools, healthcare, social infrastructure, and transport. Unlike the 2040 Plan, which is reliant on the private sector stepping up to deliver, such public services are not driven by market forces – they need longterm planning and budget allocations. Without the infrastructure to support a population, Birmingham will lack the vibrancy and diversity of our continental equivalents.

The 2040 ‘Our Future City Plan’ can’t do everything, and we should recognise its limitations. In doing so, we should also recognise there is still much to do.

Success breeds success and Birmingham will attract ever greater opportunity.

Birmingham is ready for the 4th Industrial Revolution.

Regional cities must play a bigger role in growth and prosperity, moving the UK away from the London-centric model which has been pursued since the 1980s. Devolution gives the region the tools it needs.

As we enter the 4th Industrial Revolution, Birmingham is ready to be at the heart of the UK economy once again.

For the city to thrive the private sector must partner with universities, alongside the public sector to drive forward strategic projects—such as the Birmingham Innovation Quarter and Birmingham Health Innovation Campus.

Birmingham has a dynamic and globally-recognised university sector, amplifying a young and diverse population. This is already a strong foundation for the knowledge and skills-based economy of the future.

This must be accompanied by an expansion of skills investment at all levels, enabled by devolved powers and funding.

Success breeds success and Birmingham will attract ever greater opportunity, given the city’s location at the very centre of the country. Soon to be connected to London by High Speed Rail, stronger transport links between established and emerging innovation hubs will boost growth.

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‘The Big City Plan’ did the heavy lifting, now to take the strategic vision to the

next level

Sarah is a Chartered Member of the Royal Town Planning Institute and a Partner at Fisher German. Sarah has considerable private sector experience, having worked in Birmingham city centre for over a decade.

Birmingham’s ‘Big City Plan’ did much to define the city centre today. Serious intervention was required to break the ‘concrete collar’ which had stifled the integration of the city centre with the wider area and growth of Birmingham for decades.

continued overleaf

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Brindleyplace, Paradise, Centenary Square, and Eastside are all now enjoyed by communities across the city because of the foresight, ambition, and delivery of the ‘Big City Plan’.

It has created the platform for a new 2040 vision for central Birmingham – a vision which is green, sustainable, and creates a place where people choose to live, work, and spend time. Of course, the environment in which ‘Our Future City Plan’ will be delivered is challenging.

Birmingham City Council’s financial situation is well-publicised, but the national planning system is also slower and more frustrating.

A good property advisory team, which knows and understands the city well, can mitigate risk – and a potential accelerated planning system could also support investors deliver development in line with the 2040 Plan objectives.

The 2040 ‘Our Future City Plan’ sets a clear direction of travel, a route map, as part of a strategic document which enables the city to work as one. The aim is to continue to extend opportunities whilst developing and enhancing the character and purpose of five key locations which form the central Birmingham area.

It will take the city to the next level – a better place to live and a healthy, inclusive, sustainable place to visit and work from. It will influence the next evolution of the statutory Birmingham Development Plan crucial from a planning delivery perspective.

The private sector sees the opportunity. The ambition and vision proposed are exciting and will create a critical mass of opportunities to enable long-lasting sustainable improvements to the environment.

It uses six overarching City Themes to inform actions to deliver the vision. This includes opportunities for a new network of Fifteen-Minute Neighbourhoods - the promotion of eight Central Renewal Areas, a web of linear Greenways and vibrant community hubs across the city, which will all require public and private sector support.

These are the spaces which people experience daily and will secure the legacy of ‘Our Future City Plan’, and the ‘Big City Plan’ before it.

This includes opportunities for a new network of Fifteen-Minute Neighbourhoods - the promotion of eight Central Renewal Areas, a web of linear Greenways and vibrant community hubs across the city.
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Sarah DeRenzy-Tomson Partner and Head of Planning

Effective land acquisition is vital for delivering the 2040 Plan

John leads Fisher German’s Valuation and Professional Practice and plays a central role in advising clients on areas related to compulsory purchase procedures and compensation.

The purpose of a strategic planning framework is to establish the ambitions and contours for how the built environment should best serve communities. Turning these ambitions into reality often requires the complex and delicate process of acquiring land through Compulsory Purchase Orders (CPOs). The transformational nature of the 2040 Plan, and the ambitious restructuring of the city which it proposes, means that CPOs will need to play a significant role in its delivery.

In HS2, Birmingham has already witnessed the strategic importance of land acquisition. The delivery of the highspeed railway, and the extensive land acquisition which have been needed to establish the new railway corridor, has been one of the most high-profile examples in recent history of the challenges which this process entails. In delivering the ambitions of the 2040 ‘Our Future City Plan’, Birmingham City Council will similarly need to ensure that the process of land acquisition is carefully managed.

At the heart of these efforts will need to be thorough engagement with impacted individuals, stakeholders and communities. Recent case law has shown the risks involved when acquiring authorities do not adequately seek to find a suitable agreement with those under CPO. For example, in October 2022 an Inspector declined to grant a Compulsory Purchase Order for the Royal Borough of Windsor & Maidenhead Council’s redevelopment of the Nicholson Shopping Centre (known as the Smokey Joes case).

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This was because the Council did not effectively navigate the process to acquire the rights to use Compulsory Purchase Order (CPO) powers. In particular, the Council did not engage appropriately and sufficiently – resulting in the Planning Inspector declining the request. There are significant lessons to learn from this case, lessons which the Council will need to fully embrace.

In addition, failure to manage the process effectively could seriously impact the Council’s long-term ability to deliver against the Plan. Given the sensitivities of the process and the rights which land and property owners have, it will be crucial for the Council to seek fair and appropriate settlements. This includes ensuring that land and property owners are fully supported to help mitigate the impact the process can have on their wellbeing.

If not delivered effectively, there is a risk of harming the public support for delivering developments which require the acquisition of privately owned land. This would not only result in significant costs for the local authority but would also threaten the ability of the Council to realise the vision of the 2040 Plan.

In addition, the scale of the 2040 Plan means that the act of acquiring land will need to be strategically delivered. As we have seen in other areas, the use of CPOs can have negative consequences on the health of areas by acting as a disincentive for economic and social activity in the medium term.

Mitigating this risk will require long-term strategic planning to see that CPO powers in Birmingham are used appropriately, both when and where they are used.

Failure to manage the process effectively could seriously impact the Council’s long-term ability to deliver

With the vision of this ‘Our Future City Plan’ just 16 years away, we are already seeing where CPOs will need to be used to achieve the objectives of the framework. The proposed regeneration projects of the Ladywood Estate and in Druids Heath are clear examples of where land acquisition will need to be handled effectively to minimise the risks involved with the process.

By doing so, Birmingham City Council will be able to use this vital planning instrument to enhance and enrich communities across the city and see the ambition of the 2040 Plan come to fruition.

Growth in Birmingham over the next 15 years is going to be significant. The city has a significantly diverse and young population with more than 40 per cent of the population under the age of 25, and has one of the highest graduate retention rates in Europe. This provides a huge source of talent for businesses wanting to grow and invest in the region.

The growth of the city will follow the large infrastructure interventions such as HS2 and the expansion of the Metro. The east of the city centre is in a prime position to capitalise on these projects. Evidence of this is already apparent with the Typhoo Wharf scheme in Digbeth landing the BBC’s new operations centre which is the largest new commercial development in Digbeth in recent times.

The wider Creative Quarter and Learning Quarter will benefit from being awarded Enterprise Zone and Investment Zone status, with the latter providing occupiers significant tax incentives for locating there. This will surely drive business relocation, growth, and the demand for improved residential.

East Birmingham has for many years seen underinvestment and wider spread decay.

There are significant challenges in delivering the quantum of growth planned in these areas and co-ordination of these developments and construction delivery programmes to avoid city widespread disruption will be key.

Additional significant investment in the public realm and other infrastructure such as power improvements will be key if these areas are to achieve their potential. East Birmingham has for many years seen underinvestment and wider spread decay, over the next 15 years Birmingham has a real opportunity to re-address the balance.

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Close viability gaps and minimise risk to deliver a new residential vision

Arthur is a Partner based in the Birmingham office. He has over 12 years experience within residential development agency and consultancy.

The 2040 ‘Our Future City Plan’ has an ambition to support the delivery of 35,000 new homes, with a dramatic 250% increase in residential density in the city centre. Of course, whilst the 2040 Plan sets the ambition it will be the private sector which delivers.

With Birmingham competing nationally and internationally for investment, the ‘Our Future City Plan’ is a powerful tool for ensuring Birmingham remains an attractive destination for residential investors.

Already the city is developing a vibrant residential offer. The Build-to-Rent (BTR) sector has been growing strongly and Moda’s The Mercian is a flagship example of BTR in Birmingham – driving up quality across the city.

The BTR market is not yet mature in Birmingham, unlike other UK cities, so it remains an attractive destination for long-term institutional investors.

The 2040 Plan has correctly identified the need to accommodate more residential, the challenge is how this is shaped and delivered.

‘Our Future City Plan’ is a powerful tool for ensuring Birmingham remains an attractive destination for residential investors.

Across Paradise, Centenary Square, and Brindleyplace we have seen how successful public and private sector partnerships have delivered results – principally delivering new office and commercial spaces, and often with significant public subsidy.

The 2040 Plan is now looking to apply these lessons to the residential market. Fundamental to this success is minimising risk for investors.

With the planning process becoming increasingly complex and costly across the UK, the 2040 Plan offers a framework for delivery. It drastically limits risk when investors have the right site, in the right location, with the right mix of uses. Everyone knows where they stand.

This does not mean that delivery will be without challenge and viability gaps will be a sustained brake on growth, particularly where demand is not yet proven.

Public sector money is available for brownfield residential regeneration via the West Midlands Combined Authority (WMCA). It will be important for Birmingham City Council and the WMCA to be closely aligned to enable delivery of the Plan. Otherwise, sites with planning consent risk languishing.

This is a new phase of Birmingham’s growth, where residential is at the forefront. The 2040 ‘Our Future City Plan’ will boost investor confidence in the long-term trajectory of the city. With the public and private sector working together to overcome challenges, it is an exciting residential-led vision.

This opportunity will expand central Birmingham.

Every successful city needs a strong vision to drive its sustainable growth, and embracing change is important to address the climate challenges and meet the needs of its future generations. Birmingham is no exception and its bold, ambitious ‘Our Future City 2040’ is building on the success of the ‘Big City Plan’ which was launched over a decade ago.

I believe this vision will promote long-term interest by public-private partnerships and presents huge potential to attract significant investment, recognising the city as a place to live, enjoy and do business.

This opportunity will expand central Birmingham through engaging with its inner-city communities and breaking down barriers, both physically and socially to deliver much needed homes, create jobs in emerging sectors and build on the city’s cultural/heritage assets. This is a once-in-acentury opportunity for Birmingham to become a denser, greener, healthier and connected metropolis.

Development 27

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