AUGUST 2021
S O U T H W E S T M A R K E T U P D AT E
KEY STATS S O U T H WE S T
£705,000
£963,070
18.37%
£435
£4.37bn
1,249
LATEST DATA
QUARTERLY CHANGE
ANNUAL CHANGE
81,338
-4.6%
98.2%
RESIDENTIAL TRANSACTIONS (MTH)
198,240
-3.8%
219%
GROSS MORTGAGE LENDING (MTH)
£43.8 bn
4.2%
169%
NEW HOME STARTS (QT)
37,190
23.7%
36.0%
NEW HOME COMPLETIONS (QT)
36,190
-16.7%
24.4%
MORTGAGE APPROVALS (MTH)
2 I PREMIUM MARKETS I SOUTH WEST
MARKET OVERVIEW B U S I E SA T UMTAURMKNE TS IHA N D A ED S ECADE Brexit andsixthe budgetofhave headlines over the pastthe quar ter, andmarket. while the The first months 2021dominated has seen records broken across housing With latter provided few fireworks for to theoutstrip real estate market, the deal or no deal demand for property continuing available supply, mortgage ratesquestion remaining continues to linger. Rhetoric hashigher been more positive in recent weeks; now that all eyes arewill on low and consumer confidence than pre-pandemic levels, it is likely 2021 the EUthe summit in mid-November. uncer tainty,is annual housetoprice growthover prove busiest market in over aDespite decade.the Price growth anticipated moderate remains positive across England and Wales, except London, although transaction levels the coming months. remain muted. DOUBLE-DIGIT PRICE RISES WATCHING AND WAITING The average price of a property across the UK is currently
10% higher than a year ago, standing £254,624. Price There was positive economic news inatthe Budget: eight growth at its strongest September 2007,since significantly years of iseconomic growth,since 3.3 million new jobs 2010 higher than the 1.1%forecast recorded year and ago wage (UKHPI). Average with 800,000 more by a2023, growth at price growth South West is Independent currently 8.4%, up from its highest levelininthe nearly a decade. forecasts from Office Budget Responsibility also 1.5% the a year ago.for A shortage of supply and(OBR) high demand have predict inflation to fall back to the government’ s target of underpinned growth in 2021 to date, with new record asking 2% over the course of 2019. sales volumes prices across all regions of theHowever, UK (Rightmove). The desire remain low, down 4.8% across the South West in the twelve for a lifestyle change and more space in the wake of the months to June compared to a year earlier.saw After a brief pandemic, coupled with taxation savings, an estimated reprieve the summer the number mortgage 880,000 over property sales complete in theoffirst six months of approvals acrosstothe UK hassales also completed slowed. in June alone, the year. Close 200,000
as the first of across the stamp duty holiday to anand end House pricephase growth much of the UK iscame slowing, in England and the Land Transaction Tax holiday ended in the South West is no exception. Annual house price growth Wales (HMRC). in the year to August (UK HPI) was 2.9%, down from 5.7% a year earlier. Across the prime market, prices have risen 2.6% over the past year. REMAIN FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS
Buyer demand remains considerably higher than a year ago (Zoopla and Rightmove). In excess of 81,000 new mortgages were approvedand in June (Bankbuyers of England), 20%real higher Housebuilders first-time were over the main than the long- termofJune estate beneficiaries the average. Autumn Encouragingly, Budget. As thethe majority government meet its 300,000 homes of purchasersaims whotomissed theambitious original 30th Junenew stamp per target,look a range of continue initiativeswith weretheir announced. dutyyear deadline set to purchases Additional monies £500 million for the (Rightmove). At 38totalling days, Rightmove report theHousing average time Investment to deliver 650,000 new homes, taken to sellFund a property (from marketing to sold new subject partnerships with Housing Associations, removal of thestart to contract) is almost four weeks shorter than at the revenue cap for local councils and a business-backed of 2021. While the flow of new supply to the market has guarantee formore SME ‘normal’ builders levels, are all there in the remains pipeline.a started to scheme return to As too is large-scale infrastructure investment and moves to shortfall in the number of available properties to purchase. reinvigorate the high street, with proposals to allow Consumer confidence is on an upward trajectory, ahead conversion of unusedlevel, retailwith unitsthe toGfK residential and changes of its pre-pandemic index indicating to business rates relief for small businesses. consumers are considerably more confident in making a majorfirst-time purchase.buyer numbers at an all-time high, rumours With that the Help to Buy Equity scheme would be scrapped post April 2021 proved unfounded. Instead the scheme will
BUDGET WINNERS AND LOSERS
LOOKING AHEAD
Thebemajority of agents anticipate property prices extended until the end of March 2023, withwill therise value of overthe theloan next twelve months. However, with a sizeable subject to a new regional cap. Across the South proportion purchasers who missed the on 30th June deadline West theofcap will be £349,000. Based analysis of new likely to renegotiate on price (25% Rightmove, 42% Dataloft build property sales over the past year, 70% would have subscriber there on theintroduced more qualifiedpoll), under the may new well cap. be Thea brake SDLT relief for dramatic increases in 2017 recentBudget months. the first-time buyersseen in the willIndeed, also beboth extended Halifax Nationwide point atoshared-ownership a slight fall in priceproperty. monthto alland those who purchase on-month in June andpurchased July. The adirection of the market have shared property since in 22 nd Those who theNovember final quarter2017 will will mostalso likely on thetheimpact be depend able to claim relief of theretrospectively. removal of government support packages which have supported the labour market over the past 18 months. The government is also going to consult on reforms to However, despite prices rising, mortgage payments for the lettings relief which looks set to impact on many so-called majority of purchasers have not followed suit. Mortgage rates ‘accidental’ landlords. Non-resident buyers will face a 1% are close to an all-time low, and affordability matrices remain additional SDLT surcharge over and above all other costs. on par with the long-term average. Sales volumes for 2021 are Although this is yet another tax rise, it is less than the 3% predicted to be in the region of 1.5 million, making the market indicated by the government earlier this autumn. the busiest in over a decade.
THE VALUE OF PRIME THE PRIME MARKETS HM Treasury netted £815 million in stamp duty receipts Larger properties haveSouth proved theinmost sought-after to date (SDLT) across the West the year to the end of in 2021 as the search for space has helped fuel price growth. March 2018, up 9.4% on a year previously. This was despite Rightmove a 39% increase in sales larger a rise in report sales volumes of just 0.8%. Just for over one homes, fifth (21%) those with fourwere or more bedrooms, a 15% fall in stock of receipts attributed to theagainst purchase of additional coming to the with market in the firstraised half offrom 2021the compared to 3% additional properties, £190 million 2019. Prime property priceofgrowth in the taxation South West is levy alone. Over 40% all residential receipts 18.4%, than to theproperties average across England werestronger attributable purchased for and overWales. £500,000, 13% were from properties purchased over The price threshold for a premium market propertyfor in the £1 West million.is currently £705,000. Over 1,200 properties South have sold for £1 million or more in the past 12 months. The average price for prime market property exceeds £1 million in just two cities across the South West; Bath and Cheltenham. The prime markets across Plymouth and Cheltenham are currently experiencing the highest levels of growth, the average price of prime property having risen by 13% and 9% respectively over the past year.
PREMIUM MARKETS I SOUTH WEST I 3
P R E MRIEUGMI O MNAARLK E T S T OP ON 5% PREM IU M5 % M ABRYK ERTEG S : I TOP
£390,000 £390,000 £515,707 £515,707 +10.4% +10.4% £247 £247
£495,000 £495,000 £671,747 £671,747 +15.9% +15.9% £322 £322
£550,000 £550,000 £720,956 £720,956 +15.6% +15.6% £339 £339
£500,000 £500,000 £654,805 £654,805 +15.2% +15.2% £294 £294
£437,000 £437,000 £567,062 £567,062 +13.6% +13.5% +13.6% £288 £288
£705,000 £705,000 £963,070 £963,070 +18.4% +18.4% £435 £435
44 II PREMIUM WEST PREMIUM MARKETS MARKETS II SOUTH NATIONAL
£483,000 £482,000 £483,000 £646,251 £646,251 £645,805 +15.8% +15.8% £307 £307
£771,000 £771,000 £1,043,648 £1,043,648 +12.8% +12.8% £488 £488
£916,000 £916,000 £1,307,640 £1,307,640 +15.1% +15.1% £515 £515
£1,500,000 £1,500,000 £2,418,692 £2,418,692 –0.1% –0.1% £1,135 £1,135
TOP 5% S O U T H WE S T P R EM I U M M A R K E T
£723,000 £965,727 +12% £474
£485,000 £617,154 +13% £323
£864,000 £1,188,977 +14% £479
£1,050,000 £1,540,603 +10% £558
£522,000 £684,385 +21% £323
£702,000 £952,380 +21% £404
£648,000 £819,076 +15% £344
£721,000 £895,358 +9% £431
PREMIUM MARKETS I SOUTH WEST I 5
TOP 5% S O U T H WE S T P R EM I U M M A R K E T
PROPERTIES SOLD ABOVE THE PREMIUM PRICE THRESHOLD
The premium price threshold is the value over which the top 5% of property sales occur. The chart shows a rolling 12 month change in the average price paid for premium properties compared to the previous 12 month.
SOUTH WEST
20%
15%
10%
5%
0% JUL 2020
AUG 2020
SEP 2020
OCT 2020
NOV 2020
DEC 2020
JAN 2021
FEB 2021
MAR 2021
APR 2021
MAY 2021
JUN 2021
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
BY PROPERTY TYPE OVER THE LAST 12 MONTHS, PROPERTIES SOLD ABOVE THE PREMIUM PRICE THRESHOLD
An individual premium price threshold is calculated for each property type based on sold prices in the last 12 months. The chart shows the average price paid per square foot for all of these premium properties.
SOUTH WEST
£600
£524
£494
£450
£421
£435
£398
£300
£150
0 FLAT/APARTMENT
TERRACED
SEMI-DETACHED
DETACHED
ALL PROPERTY Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
6 I PREMIUM MARKETS I SOUTH WEST
MAINSTREAM S O U T H WE S T M A I N S T R EA M M A R K ET
ALL PROPERTIES SOLD ACROSS THE REGION
Chart shows a rolling 12-month change in transactions compared to the previous 12-month period. PLEASE NOTE: Caution should be taken when viewing this chart as figures may show an exaggerated decline due to the closure of the market April to June 2020. Housing market demand remains strong, with the HMRC reporting 198,240 sales in June 2021.
SOUTH WEST
Transactions
20%
Average sales price
10% 0% -10% -20% -30% JUN 2020
JUL 2020
AUG 2020
SEP 2020
OCT 2020
NOV 2020
DEC 2020
JAN 2021
FEB 2021
MAR 2021
APR 2021
MAY 2021
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
BY PROPERTY TYPE OVER THE LAST 12 MONTHS OF ALL PROPERTY SALES
SOUTH WEST
Average price paid per square foot for all property transactions.
£400
£300
£319 £274
£261
£287
£283
£200
£100
0 FLAT/APARTMENT
TERRACED
SEMI-DETACHED
DETACHED
ALL PROPERTY Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
PREMIUM MARKETS I SOUTH WEST I 7
KEY STATS S O U T H WE S T
£289,577 £705,000 £963,070
£183,934 £475,000 £647,120
£238,015 £499,037 £663,835
£275,696 £534,291 £715,404
£425,119 £897,288 £1,282,918
£312,282 £730,249 £996,833
T: +44 (0)207 079 1515 E: parklane@fineandcountry.com fineandcountry.com
Disclaimer :This repor t is produced for general information only.Whilst ever y effor t has been made to ensure the accuracy of this publication, Dataloft Ltd accepts no liability for any loss or damage of any nature arising from its use or from any changes made to Dataloft content by Inform users. Reproduction of all or par t of the repor t in any form is prohibited without written permission from Dataloft Ltd. Repor t edited by Inform user and published on 02-08-2021.
Please note, HM Land Registry transaction figures since March are lower than usual due to the impact of Covid-19. They are likely to be revised upward. dataloft.co.uk