AUGUST 2021
G R E AT E R L O N D O N M A R K E T U P D AT E
KEY STATS G R E A TE R L O N D O N
£1,500,000
£2,418,692
-0.12%
£1,135
£11.3bn
9,302
LATEST DATA
QUARTERLY CHANGE
ANNUAL CHANGE
81,338
-4.6%
98.2%
RESIDENTIAL TRANSACTIONS (MTH)
198,240
-3.8%
219%
GROSS MORTGAGE LENDING (MTH)
£43.8 bn
4.2%
169%
NEW HOME STARTS (QT)
37,190
23.7%
36.0%
NEW HOME COMPLETIONS (QT)
36,190
-16.7%
24.4%
MORTGAGE APPROVALS (MTH)
2 I PREMIUM MARKETS I GREATER LONDON
MARKET OVERVIEW B U S I E SA T UMTAURMKNE TS IHA N D A ED S ECADE Brexit andsixthe budgetofhave headlines over the pastthe quar ter, andmarket. while the The first months 2021dominated has seen records broken across housing With latter provided few fireworks for to theoutstrip real estate market, the deal or no deal demand for property continuing available supply, mortgage ratesquestion remaining continues to linger. Rhetoric hashigher been more positive in recent weeks; now that all eyes arewill on low and consumer confidence than pre-pandemic levels, it is likely 2021 the EUthe summit in mid-November. uncer tainty,is annual housetoprice growthover prove busiest market in over aDespite decade.the Price growth anticipated moderate remains positive across England and Wales, except London, although transaction levels the coming months. remain muted. DOUBLE-DIGIT PRICE RISES WATCHING AND WAITING The average price of a property across the UK is currently 10%
higher was thanpositive a year ago, standingnews at £254,624. Price growth There economic in the Budget: eight is at its strongest since September significantly years of economic growth, 3.32007, million new jobshigher since than 2010the 1.1% 800,000 recordedmore a yearforecast ago (UKHPI). Average pricegrowth growthatin with by 2023, and wage London is currently 5.2%,aup from 2.1% a year ago. A shortage its highest level in nearly decade. Independent forecasts from the Office fordemand Budget have Responsibility (OBR) also in 2021 of supply and high underpinned growth predict fall back to the government’ target of of the to date,inflation with newtorecord asking prices across all sregions 2% over the course of 2019. However, sales volumes UK (Rightmove). The desire for a lifestyle change and more remain 9.6% London in the twelve space inlow, the down wake of theacross pandemic, coupled with taxation months to June compared880,000 to a year earlier. sales Aftercomplete a brief savings, saw an estimated property reprieve the summer number in the firstover six months of thethe year. Close of to mortgage 200,000 sales approvals UK has also slowed. completedacross in Junethe alone, as the first phase of the stamp duty
holiday price camegrowth to an end in England andthe theUK Land Transaction House across much of is slowing with Tax holiday ended in Wales (HMRC). annual prices across London currently lower than a year ago. Annual house price growth in the year to August (UK HPI) was -0.2%, down from 3.2%FAVOURABLE a year earlier. Across the CONDITIONS REMAIN prime market annual price growth has remained positive. Buyer demand remains considerably higher than a year ago (Zoopla and Rightmove). In excess of 81,000 new mortgages BUDGET WINNERS AND LOSERS were approved in June (Bank of England), over 20% higher than the long- term June average. Encouragingly, Housebuilders and first-time buyers were the the majority main realof purchasers who missed theAutumn original Budget. 30th JuneAsstamp estate beneficiaries of the the duty government tocontinue meet its with ambitious 300,000 new homes deadline lookaims set to their purchases (Rightmove). per year target, a rangereport of initiatives were time announced. At 38 days, Rightmove the average taken to sell a Additional monies totallingto£500 the Housing property (from marketing sold million subject for to contract) is almost 650,000 new homes, Investment to than deliver four weeks Fund shorter at the start of 2021. Whilenew the flow partnerships Housing removal of new supplywith to the marketAssociations, has started to return of to the more revenue cap for local councils and a business-backed ‘normal’ levels, there remains a shortfall in the number of guarantee scheme for builders are all inconfidence the pipeline. available properties to SME purchase. Consumer is on As too is large-scale infrastructure investment moves an upward trajectory, ahead of its pre-pandemicand level, with to the reinvigorate the highconsumers street, withare proposals to allow GfK index indicating considerably more conversion unused retail purchase. units to residential and changes confident inofmaking a major to business rates relief for small businesses.
LOOKING AHEAD
Thebe majority of agents anticipate prices willthe risevalue over of extended until the end of property March 2023, with the the nextloan twelve months. However, with a sizeable proportion subject to a new regional cap. Unlike all other of purchasers missed June deadline likelyunchanged to regions of who England, the the cap30th in London will remain renegotiate on price (25% Rightmove, 42% Dataloft subscriber at £600,000. Based on an analysis of new build property poll), there may the wellCapital be a brake more increases sales across overon thethe past yeardramatic just under twoseenthirds in recent months. Indeed, both the Halifax and Nationwide (64%) would have been available to prospective firstpoint to abuyers. slight fall in price and July. time The SDLTmonth-on-month relief introduced in forJune first-time Thebuyers direction of the market in the will most likely in the 2017 Budget willfinal alsoquarter be extended to all those depend the impact of the removal ofproperty. government support who on purchase a shared-ownership Those who packages which haveasupported the labour over the past have purchased shared property sincemarket 22nd November 2017 willHowever, also be able to claim relief retrospectively. 18 months. despite pricesthe rising, mortgage payments for the majority of purchasers have not followed suit. Mortgage The government is also going to consult on reforms to rates are close to an all-time low, and affordability matrices lettings relief which looks set to impact on many so-called remain on par with the long-term average. Sales volumes for ‘accidental’ landlords. Non-resident buyers will face a 1% 2021 are predicted to be in the region of 1.5 million, making additional SDLT surcharge over and above all other costs. the Although market the busiest in over a decade. this is yet another tax rise, it is less than the 3% indicated by the government earlier this autumn.
THE PRIME MARKETS THE VALUEhave OFproved PRIME Larger properties the most sought-after to date
in 2021 as the search forjust space has£3.6 helped fuelinprice growth. HM Treasury netted over billion stamp duty Rightmove report a 39% increase in sales for larger homes, receipts (SDLT) from London in the year to the end of those with2018, four or against a 15% fall inastock March upmore 6.6%bedrooms, on a year previously, despite fall of coming market in theOver first half 2021 compared to 2019. 6.0%tointhe sales volumes. oneofquarter (27%) of receipts Prime property prices remain virtually unchanged were attributed to in theLondon purchase of additional properties, from a year ago. The price with £585 million raisedthreshold from thefor 3%a premium additionalmarket levy alone. property in the is currently £1.5were million and over to Over half of Capital all residential receipts attributable properties purchased £1 million, 35%intothe properties 9,000 properties have soldfor forover £1 million or more past purchased for over £2 million.travel restrictions will 12 months. Easing of international undoubtedly have a significant impact on this market. At just shy of £2.5 million, the average price for prime market property across London is over twice that of the UK's second most expensive region, the South East.
With first-time buyer numbers at an all-time high, rumours that the Help to Buy Equity scheme would be scrapped post April 2021 proved unfounded. Instead the scheme will PREMIUM MARKETS I GREATER LONDON I 3
P R E MRIEUGMI O MNAARLK E T S T OP ON 5% PREM IU M5 % M ABRYK ERTEG S : I TOP
£390,000 £390,000 £515,707 £515,707 +10.4% +10.4% £247 £247
£495,000 £495,000 £671,747 £671,747 +15.9% +15.9% £322 £322
£550,000 £550,000 £720,956 £720,956 +15.6% +15.6% £339 £339
£500,000 £500,000 £654,805 £654,805 +15.2% +15.2% £294 £294
£437,000 £437,000 £567,062 £567,062 +13.5% +13.5% +13.6% £288 £288
£705,000 £705,000 £963,070 £963,070 +18.4% +18.4% £435 £435
44 II PREMIUM LONDON PREMIUM MARKETS MARKETS II GREATER NATIONAL
£483,000 £482,000 £483,000 £646,251 £646,251 £645,805 +15.8% +15.8% £307 £307
£771,000 £771,000 £1,043,648 £1,043,648 +12.8% +12.8% £488 £488
£916,000 £916,000 £1,307,640 £1,307,640 +15.1% +15.1% £515 £515
£1,500,000 £1,500,000 £2,418,692 £2,418,692 –0.1% –0.1% £1,135 £1,135
TOP 5% G R E A TE R L O N D O N P R EM I U M M A R K E T
£9,120,000 £14,695,324 –26% £3,643
£1,910,000 £2,507,457 +4% £1,183
£7,950,000 £11,443,450 +19% £2,484
£1,620,000 £2,529,332 +19% £896
£1,100,000 £1,257,499 +24% £1,047
£2,210,000 £3,407,118 +33% £1,324
PREMIUM MARKETS I GREATER LONDON I 5
TOP 5% G R E A TE R L O N D O N P R EM I U M M A R K E T
PROPERTIES SOLD ABOVE THE PREMIUM PRICE THRESHOLD
The premium price threshold is the value over which the top 5% of property sales occur. The chart shows a rolling 12 month change in the average price paid for premium properties compared to the previous 12 month.
GREATER LONDON
14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% JUL 2020
AUG 2020
SEP 2020
OCT 2020
NOV 2020
DEC 2020
JAN 2021
FEB 2021
MAR 2021
APR 2021
MAY 2021
JUN 2021
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
BY PROPERTY TYPE OVER THE LAST 12 MONTHS, PROPERTIES SOLD ABOVE THE PREMIUM PRICE THRESHOLD
An individual premium price threshold is calculated for each property type based on sold prices in the last 12 months. The chart shows the average price paid per square foot for all of these premium properties.
GREATER LONDON
£1,600
£1410 £1,200
£1233
£1176
£1135
£953
£800
£400
0 FLAT/APARTMENT
TERRACED
SEMI-DETACHED
DETACHED
ALL PROPERTY Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
6 I PREMIUM MARKETS I GREATER LONDON
MAINSTREAM G R E A TE R L O N D O N M A I N S T R EA M M A R K ET
ALL PROPERTIES SOLD ACROSS THE REGION
Chart shows a rolling 12-month change in transactions compared to the previous 12-month period. PLEASE NOTE: Caution should be taken when viewing this chart as figures may show an exaggerated decline due to the closure of the market April to June 2020. Housing market demand remains strong, with the HMRC reporting 198,240 sales in June 2021.
GREATER LONDON
Transactions
10%
Average sales price
0%
-10%
-20%
-30% JUN 2020
JUL 2020
AUG 2020
SEP 2020
OCT 2020
NOV 2020
DEC 2020
JAN 2021
FEB 2021
MAR 2021
APR 2021
MAY 2021
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
BY PROPERTY TYPE OVER THE LAST 12 MONTHS OF ALL PROPERTY SALES
GREATER LONDON
Average price paid per square foot for all property transactions.
£800
£600
£646 £569
£525
£567
£592
£400
£200
0 FLAT/APARTMENT
TERRACED
SEMI-DETACHED
DETACHED
ALL PROPERTY Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
PREMIUM MARKETS I GREATER LONDON I 7
KEY STATS G R E A TE R L O N D O N
£535,999 £1,500,000 £2,418,692
£441,535 £1,101,748 £1,770,681
£592,073 £1,639,407 £2,611,908
£605,469 £1,451,026 £2,260,294
£927,109 £2,883,192 £4,887,212
£625,714 £1,731,232 £2,812,195
T: +44 (0)207 079 1515 E: parklane@fineandcountry.com fineandcountry.com
dataloft.co.uk
Disclaimer :This repor t is produced for general information only.Whilst ever y effor t has been made to ensure the accuracy of this publication, Dataloft Ltd accepts no liability for any loss or damage of any nature arising from its use or from any changes made to Dataloft content by Inform users. Reproduction of all or par t of the repor t in any form is prohibited without written permission from Dataloft Ltd. Repor t edited by Inform user and published on 02-08-2021.
Please note: the London residential property market, particularly the more central parts have been disproportionately affected by the Covid pandemic. Transactions in prime central London are lower, with fewer high value sales. There are still outstanding transactions which have not yet appeared on Land Registry.