Financial Standard volume 19 number 01

Page 1

www.financialstandard.com.au

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Gender discrimination

MLC Life, Ignition Advice, Telstra Super

The future of underwriting

Feature:

Profile:

News:

09

Opinion: Sean Cookson FRT

Investors turn their heads to inflation Kanika Sood

ith over $257 billion in stimulus at work W in Australia to aid economic recovery and much more abroad, the possibility of higher inflation and hedges against it are back on the todo lists for financial advisers and investors. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) currently has a target for average inflation of 2-3%, which it sees as not being materially impactful to economic decision-making. At September end, the Consumer Price Index sat at 0.7. “What we are seeing is inflation volatility is certainly picking up…and it is being compounded by an environment with unusually low returns from traditional asset classes. So, for superannuation funds, reaching those return objectives of CPI plus 2 or 3% is still going to be very tough,” Frontier principal consultant Philip Naylor says. He says the lower return expectations stand for even those superannuation portfolios that have a higher allocation to equities. “The way we are talking to our clients about it is building inflation protection, rather than just bluntly cutting exposure to defensive assets, such as in an 80:20 asset allocation, where it would be very difficult to [further] reduce bonds,” Naylor says. He adds that, within fixed income, superannuation funds have been looking at investing in inflation-linked bonds, which are primarily issued by the governments, including in Australia and whose income stream and/or principle adjusts depending on the level of inflation. “The issue is the inflation-linked market is a lot smaller than the nominal bond market, it is less liquid and particularly in the COVID-19 sell-off, the level of breakeven dropped dramatically – this means inflation-linked bonds provided less defensiveness in portfolios during the 2020 COVID-19 sell-off compared to nominal bonds,” he says. However, this has changed since then as people’s inflation expectations have returned, making inflation-linked bonds a better bet than nominal bonds as breakeven rates rise, he says. He says given the smaller size of the ILB market, currently it may be more suitable for smaller superannuation funds to consider an increased investment. For larger funds, there are infrastructure assets to look at that can adjust their revenue streams with CPI, and other midrisk assets such as alternative debt and credit.

At the start of 2020, HESTA bought inflation-linked bonds and breakeven inflation swaps, which served it well as the CPI spiked to 2.2 in the March quarter, and returned from -0.3 in the June quarter to 0.7 in September. “We have had very low, even negative inflation but in this environment, we are coming out the other side of that,” HESTA chief investment officer Sonya Sawtell-Rickson says. “In the near term, we have seen the recent rally in oil prices and disruption in the financial markets but in medium to long term, we are still seeing structural changes continuing to dominate – such as technology, and high levels of debt. “We are seeing a lot of political acceptance of deglobalisation which feeds into an increase in prices. In the US, the Fed has announced its move to average inflation targeting – a bias to higher inflation.” Sawtell-Rickson does not think inflation will go out of the RBA’s target range of 2-3% in the medium term. David Andrew’s firm Capital Partners advises on over $1 billion for affluent clients. The firm does not expect inflation to return to RBA’s target range in 2021 despite the stimulus and low rates. However, it says that government policy is positioned to encourage inflation in the future. Capital Partners has looked at gold, and inflation-linked bonds as inflation hedges but has stayed away from both. “We’ve been actively looking at inflation linked bonds for about the last four years. We haven’t gone anywhere near them at this point in time for two reasons,” Andrew says. “The first is that the return on the yield on them is negligible. So, if it were [that] there is little or no inflationary pressure, we feel you are paying a big premium to have that in reserve because the yield is just so low. “And that’s always the tension point in when you move too early to an inflationary hedge – [for example] you move to gold, there’s no return. Yes, there’s capital preservation but there is no real return,” he says, citing the lack of depth in the ILB markets as the other reason. The firm has maintained its equities tilt towards value stocks over growth, as it sees the latter being more susceptible to inflation given a larger share of their cashflows are expected to be generated further into the future. fs

25 January 2021 | Volume 19 Number 01 www.financialstandard.com.au 20 January 2020 | Volume 18 Number 01

Executive appts:

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2021 product preview

Featurette:

32

Lucy Steed Melior IM

MySuper hits record high Karren Vergara

Sonya SawtellRickson

chief investment officer HESTA

Default superannuation funds have fully recovered from COVID-induced losses, yet underperformance within the asset classes remains rife, according to new Rainmaker data. Rainmaker’s November 2020 MySuper index has reached a record high, bouncing back 15% since March 2020. November saw the local and international share markets rally. The ASX200 returned 10.2% while global stock markets gained 7.5%. Consequently, the MySuper Index registered 2.4% on a year-to-date basis. In the year to November, Australian Ethical Super’s default fund (6.1%p.a.) was the best performer. Vision Super (4.8% p.a.), BUSSQ (4.6% p.a.), UniSuper (4.4% p.a.) and Cbus (4.2% p.a.) made the top five list of the best performers. Drilling down to the performance of the different investment options, only two asset classes outperformed: international equities and cash. Continued on page 4

Remembering Martin Heffron Elizabeth McArthur

Martin Heffron, one of the most respected experts in Australia’s self-managed superannuation sector, passed away suddenly after a brief illness. Heffron, the business that he co-founded with his wife Meg in 1998, sent a note to clients on 11 December 2020 informing them of the sad news. “We are deeply saddened to announce the sudden passing of our executive director Martin Heffron,” Heffron said. “Many of you may not be aware that Martin had been fighting cancer over the last few months and had been progressing well with his treatment. The news came as a shock to everyone close to Martin, including his family and the entire Heffron team.” The Heffron management team will remain unchanged, with Meg Heffron continuing in her role as managing director. “His light will continue to shine brightly within our organisation as Martin, our co-founder, will Continued on page 4


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