South America F&B market report 2021

South America F&B market report 2021

Regions in the Spotlight 12-23 April 2021

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Contents Market overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Packaged food general outlook: consumption is on the rise . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Spotlight on regional food trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Health ingredients . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Sugar reduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Native superfoods & ancient grains . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Plant-based meat alternatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Plant-based dairy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

Regulatory landscape . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Front-of-pack nutrition labelling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Trans fat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Business environment & trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Food-producing powerhouse . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Harmonisation on the horizon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Towards tariff-free trade: EU-Mercosur trade deal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Sustainable sourcing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Feeding startup innovation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

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Food safety & consumer trust . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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Key takeaways . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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Market overview With a population of 430 million and an expanding middle class, the packaged food industry has bright opportunities in South America. Governments are eager to attract investment and promote growth while the EU-Mercosur trade deal is inching closer to becoming a reality after 20 years of negotiation.

However, the COVID-19 epidemic, which has triggered the largest global economic contraction since the Great Depression, has hit the region hard, creating mass unemployment and reducing consumer spending power.

The Inter-American Development Bank estimates that initial conditions for recovery in Latin American and Caribbean countries are behind those of the rest of the world and other countries with a comparable income.1 Affordability and frugality will therefore be the watchwords going forward.

A dramatic shift to value — with up to 40% of consumers abandoning their preferred brands and retailers for more affordable ones — has created a ‘shock to loyalty,’ and around 30% of consumers who changed to cheaper brands say they don’t plan on switching back, according to McKinsey.2 That said, consumers still want some indulgence in their lives and there will be room for affordable treats and premium foods. Nestlé-owned Vem de Bolo, an online marketplace that connects confectioners and bakers to consumers, saw a 500% increase in sales during Brazil’s COVID-19 lockdown, for instance.3

Packaged food general outlook: consumption is on the rise In recent decades, distribution networks and supermarket chains have improved and expanded respectively across South America. Combined with higher rates of urbanization, greater disposable income, lengthier commute times, and more women in employment, packaged food and ready meals have become attractive options.

The consumption of ‘ultra-processed’ products grew by more than 25% between 2000 and 2013 while fast-food consumption grew almost 40%, according to a 2019 FAO Panorama report.4 The coronavirus pandemic has intensified this trend with shelf-stable packaged food seen as convenient and accessible.

It has also accelerated the switch to e-commerce for grocery shopping. Online sales of food and drink in Brazil jumped by 310%5 in June 2020 and 46% of Brazilians6 say they intend to keep buying online once the pandemic subsides, indicating bright opportunities online for packaged food manufacturers.

This opens the door to continuing opportunities for processed food manufacturers – and greater responsibilities. These dietary changes are responsible for increasing sugar, sodium, and fat intake, which is associated with higher rates of overweight and obesity, according to the FAO. Brazil’s national dietary guidelines, for instance, explicitly tell individuals to limit their consumption of processed foods and avoid ultra-processed foods for this reason.7

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Spotlight on regional food trends Health ingredients Many South American countries suffer from the double burden of obesity and micronutrient deficiencies, meaning fortified, health-promoting foods were strongly appealing even before the coronavirus pandemic.

The coronavirus pandemic has brought the link between food and health into even sharper focus and manufacturers can tap into this demand by formulating healthy products for the ‘new normal’.

Lockdowns have taken a physical and psychological toll with almost half of Latin Americans saying they have gained weight and many sleeping worse, according to a survey conducted by Americas Market Research.8 51% of Brazilians say they put a higher priority on eating healthily since the COVID-19 outbreak – much higher than the 37% in the US and 35% in Canada - while nearly three-quarters of Peruvians are regularly consuming immune-boosting foods, according to Mintel’s COVID-19 Tracker.9 Global sales in vitamin C, D and other immunity-based dietary supplements have increased since the outbreak, and Latin America has led this growth in sales.10 Beyond supplements, however, consumers are looking for the convenience of everyday food and drink products with immune-boosting benefits. Vitamin and mineral fortification is a common regional brand strategy for product innovation and renovation, and some manufacturers were quick to offer this in the context of COVID-19. In March 2020, major Costa Rican dairy company, Dos Pinos, increased the vitamin and mineral content of its milk and orange juice between 30% and 50% specifically to help people fight coronavirus, without raising the price.11 In addition to vitamins and minerals, other nutrients have room to grow in Latin America’s immune-health category. Protein is known to repair body tissue and help fight viral and bacterial infections while prebiotics, probiotics and fibre are beneficial for the gut microbiome, which is linked to the body’s immune system.12 Snack products are a good fit for immune health nutrients thanks to their one-time consumption. In Colombia, Free Zen makes a dulce de leche-filled, sugarfree cookie with 5 g of protein the brand says helps create defences for the immune system while Brazilian manufacturer B.eat makes a Peaceful Night snack mix with 8 g of protein from nuts and seeds that it says has a calming effect before sleep.

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Sugar reduction Obesity now affects one in four adults13 in Latin American and governments in the region are encouraging manufacturers to reformulate through mandatory front-of-pack labelling schemes that warn consumers about excessive sugar content (see ‘regulatory landscape’ for more information). The fact that obesity has been identified as a major co-morbidity factor14 for COVID-19 indicates sugar reduction efforts will continue with a renewed priority.

Low- and no-sugar claims currently have the strongest influence on purchasing decisions in key global markets including Brazil, according to a survey by Innova Market Insights,15 and the South American sugar substitute market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.23% between 2020 and 2025.16 Significant income disparities in the region mean that value for money remains an important attribute.

Many products have a ‘better for you’ positioning, with manufacturers using high intensity artificial sweeteners such as sucralose and aspartame that enable a sugar-free claim while ensuring the product remains affordable.

Stevia, which is native to South America, enjoys a natural and healthy image and is often combined with low-cost artificial sweeteners to keep the final product’s price down while allowing for a front-of-pack stevia claim. For health and wellness consumers in higher income groups, however, a clean label ingredient list is increasingly important.

Native superfoods & ancient grains Natural, healthy and nutritious, many popular superfoods used around the world are in fact native to South America. Chia seeds, quinoa, açaí, and amaranth are now well-known to Western consumers and others are gaining traction.

Native superfoods are valued among South American consumers because they bring authenticity to the product, connecting the product with a regional or ethnic identity. Manufacturers should search for home-grown superfoods that resonate with consumers in each country, such as açaí in Brazil, maqui berries in Chile, or maca root in Peru.

Superfoods and ancient grains are popular in baked goods, breakfast cereals, snack bars and bread – these categories account for 80% of products with quinoa in Latin America, for example17 – but their use is expanding to other categories, including plant-based meat and dairy alternatives, yoghurts and smoothies. Dairy alternative drinks made with ancient grains are more widely available in Latin America than in other regions, with quinoa-based product launches in the drinks category doubling from 2013 to 2018.18 Mexican brand Pure Natural Concepts expanded its mango-flavoured quinoa drink to South American markets, such as Uruguay, while Ecuadorian brand Gramolino makes an amaranth flavoured with goldenberries under its Amati brand.

Adding superfoods or ancient grains to indulgent products also adds a health halo. Alfajores, for example, are individual cakes covered in chocolate and filled with caramel, hugely popular in Argentina, Uruguay, and Chile. Argentinian brand Havanna launched a gluten-free version with sesame, quinoa, chia, poppy, and linseed that it says is ‘naturally light’.

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Plant-based meat alternatives South America counts some of the world’s biggest meat-producing countries and traditional diets tend to be meat-heavy. From Argentina to Colombia, asado (barbecue) is not just a typical food but a national pastime.

Nevertheless, demand for both plant-based meat and dairy alternatives is growing fast as consumers, particularly among higher-income groups, perceive them as important for a healthier and more balanced diet.

The Good Food Institute (GFI) sees the biggest plant-based potential in Brazil, which generally tends to be South America’s most dynamic market in terms of food trends. The GFI surveyed 9,000 consumers in 2018 and found that nearly 30% were either moving towards reducing consumption of animal products or were already vegetarian.19 Since then, interest in plant-based meat alternatives has grown thanks to several high-profile launches from vegan start-ups, such as Fazenda Futuro and major meat producers. Marfrig and JBS, for instance, have both launched meat-free burgers while one of Brazil’s biggest egg producers, Grupo Mantiqueira, launched a vegan egg made from pea protein called N.ovo.

In addition to plant-based burger patties, brands are developing vegan versions of local favourites to appeal to a wider consumer base. Chilean brand Riku makes vegan salchi to prepare typical Chilean completo while Brazil’s Mr Veggy recently launched a jackfruit-based coxinha.

Price will be a factor decisive in the category’s potential to expand beyond high earners. The Brazilian Institute of Public Opinion and Statistics (IBOPE) found that 60% of respondents would prefer to buy plantbased products if the price were similar to their animal-based equivalents.20

Plant-based dairy Despite making up just 6% of the world’s population, Latin America accounts for 29% of the global volume of lactose-free dairy products, with Brazil leading the way. Between 2015 and 2017, 38% of the world’s lowor no-lactose products were launched in Brazil.21 Traditional dairy products with lactose are perceived as being difficult to digest, and South American plant-based manufacturers can leverage this by communicating about the health benefits of non-dairy alternatives as well as sustainability and taste.

Demand for dairy alternatives in South America is set to continue with a predicted CAGR of 5.2% between 2016 and 202522, and traditional dairy producers are increasingly entering the space, such as Chilean brand Quillayes, which launched a vegan cheese line, and Brazilian manufacturer Batavo, which has soy-based milk and drinking yoghurt alternatives.

As in other markets, plant-based manufacturers face a pushback from the meat and dairy industries over product names, and regulations prohibiting traditional terms are in progress in various South American countries, including Brazil.23

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Regulatory landscape Front-of-pack nutrition labelling Governments across South America are stepping up pressure on manufacturers to reformulate through front-of-pack nutrition labels.

In 2016, Chile introduced mandatory black-andwhite warning labels for products high in salt, sugar, calories, and saturated fat, followed by Peru in 2019.

Others are following suite: Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina, and Colombia are all at various stages of introducing similar black-and-white warning labels for unhealthy products – although industry opposition has resulted in delays in several countries. Ecuador, meanwhile, opted for a traffic light-style nutrition label, similar to the UK model, which is obligatory on packaged foods.

These efforts earned the praise of the World Health Organization (WHO), which called Latin America “one of the most advanced [regions] globally”, by allowing consumers to identify products with excessive amounts of unhealthy nutrients quickly and easily.24 In some countries, such as Chile, the nutrition label was accompanied by other measures such as restrictions on unhealthy food marketing to children, which famously saw cartoon characters disappear from the packaging of products that exceeded the nutrient thresholds, such as Kellogg’s Tony the Tiger.

https://www.minsal.cl/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ManualEtiquetado-Nutricional-Ed.-Minsal-2017v2.pdf

http://www.soberaniaalimentaria.gob.ec/2019/ForoInternacionaSA/ Ponencias/Consumo%20y%20nutricion/Etiquetado-MESA%20DE%20 CONSUMO%20Y%20NUTRICION.pdf

https://www.gov.br/anvisa/pt-br/assuntos/noticias-anvisa/2020/ aprovada-norma-sobre-rotulagem-nutricional

Trans fat Chile was the first country in South America to set a 2% limit on industrially produced trans fats (partially hydrogenated oils) in 2009. It was followed by Argentina in 2010, Colombia in 2012, Ecuador in 2013, Peru in 2016, and Uruguay in 2017.

Bolivia is currently preparing regulations to limit industrial trans fats and Paraguay is in advanced stages of the regulatory process. The Brazilian food regulatory agency, ANVISA, recently announced a 2% limit on industrial trans fats in all food and drink products and a total ban on partially hydrogenated oils by 2023.

The bans in Peru and Uruguay have not yet been fully implemented, and several countries initially included exceptions that were later judged unnecessary. For example, in Argentina, margarines or shortenings that contain industrially produced trans fats and are used as raw material for manufacturing food products are not covered by the regulation, however, this is currently being amended.25

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Business environment & trade Food-producing powerhouse Latin America is a global food-producing powerhouse with sourcing opportunities for almost every food and drink category. By 2028, the region will account for more than 25% of global exports in agricultural and fisheries products, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).26 During the COVID-19 pandemic, efforts focused on ensuring business as usual. Agriculture ministers across Latin America pledged to reactivate food production in the post-pandemic period27 and industry experts praised Brazil for maintaining production and exports during the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Andy Duff, head of food and agribusiness research for Rabobank South America, said:

“Global perception of Brazil as a reliable supplier should receive a boost given its strong performance as a producer, processor, and exporter during the crisis.

Farmers and companies have had their business models severely tested and have learned valuable lessons that will lead to greater strength and resilience in the future.” 28

Harmonisation on the horizon There are three main trade blocs in South America. Mercosur is composed of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay (Bolivia’s membership is pending while Venezuela has been suspended since 2017); the Pacific Alliance is composed of Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru; and the Andean Community (CAN) is composed of Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru.

These trade alliances have introduced some levels of harmonization for food and beverage companies operating in the region. Mercosur, for instance, has harmonized its food additives and general food and nutrition labelling regulations for foods and beverages, with these regulations currently under review.

When approved, Mercosur countries will be required to implement the bloc’s harmonized regulations at a national level.29 Today, organic food producers in Argentina, Chile and Costa Rica can export their produce to the EU without the need for third-party certification as their organic standards are considered equivalent to those in the EU. 30

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Towards tariff-free trade: EU-Mercosur trade deal After nearly 20 years of negotiations, the European Union and Mercosur announced in 2019 they had agreed on a free-trade agreement that would create a trade bloc of almost 780 million people and eliminate tariffs for 90% of traded goods.

Mercosur currently has an above-average tariff rate of 12%, compared to 5% for OECD countries. Reducing these tariffs would therefore increase competition for South America in the years ahead, benefiting consumers in the short term while improving productivity levels over time, according to Euromonitor.

Analysts welcomed the agreement as a 'window of opportunity for Latin America to leave behind its historical isolation' in terms of global trade and economic integration.31 Although it must still be ratified by member states, there is no doubt the agreement would bring major growth opportunities to food makers operating in South America.

Euromonitor estimates an EU-Mercosur trade bloc would create a packaged food market worth US$730 billion in 2024, representing around 28% of the global packaged food market and becoming one of the world’s most competitive.

Sustainable sourcing Latin America is home to 57% of the world’s primary forests and the source of up to half of global biodiversity.32 Agriculture is the second main cause of forest conversion in the Amazon and large-scale agro-industrial production of soy and cattle is rising due to global demand, poor law enforcement, and credit incentives for producers, among other factors.33 A recent study estimated one-fifth of Brazil's soy and beef exports to the EU are produced on illegally deforested land34 and the topic has made headlines around the world, sparking public anger that has been further inflamed by Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro.

In addition to consumer opposition, several European governments have objected to the EU-Mercosur trade deal because of environmental concerns, calling for stronger South American government commitments on commodity-fuelled illegal deforestation in the Amazon and a pledge to respect the climate change targets of the Paris Agreement.35 Recently, stakeholders in the Brazilian soy sector - food manufacturers, retailers, and investors managing over $2 trillion of assets, signed an open letter calling on the Brazilian government to step up protection of the Amazon Soy Moratorium. Failure to do so would risk their business with Brazilian soy, they warned.36

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South American food producers are aware the world’s eyes are watching. Grazielle Parenti, president of the board of directors of the Brazilian food manufacturing trade association, ABIA, said:

“Consumers want to know what companies are doing to protect the environment and our reputation is linked to that, not only with consumers and public opinion, but investors as well. Our products are in more than 180 countries, it is not only the Brazilian who counts on the agribusiness, but the world counts on the production of food from Brazil.”37 Establishing sustainable sourcing policies that protect South America’s natural wealth is an increasing priority for ingredients suppliers.

Third-party sustainable certification offers manufacturers traceability and transparency on how and where commodities have been produced.

The Roundtable on Responsible Soy (RTRS), Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO), Fair Trade for cocoa and coffee, and Bonsucro for sustainable sugarcane all have an established presence in South America, although certification tends to be sought for exported commodities, rather than domestic markets.

The region also offers manufacturers opportunities to source sustainably produced packaging materials, such as plant-based bioplastic. In 2020, the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) recognised bioplastic production as one of the most transformational cases in sustainable development in Brazil,38 and Tetra Pak recently launched its first bioplastic-based drinks pack using Bonsucro-certified sugarcane sourced from Brazil.

Latin American palm producers strive to distinguish themselves from Southeast Asian producers, where the crop is linked to deforestation. Ecuador is taking a jurisdictional approach to sustainable palm oil certification and the Latin American palm oil sector is currently 'a global leader' with around 27% of all palm oil produced in the region currently certified sustainable, according to the RSPO. It predicts certified volumes will increase in the coming years due to rising demand in Europe and the US.39 Canopy Bridge is an Ecuador-headquartered global ingredient directory which connects suppliers of sustainably harvested Amazonian products to buyers, although it focuses on relatively low-volume ingredients used in high-end applications.40

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Feeding startup innovation Many South American countries have thriving startup ecosystems.

Venture investment in Latin America has more than doubled in dollars every year from 2016, reaching US$1.08bn through partial and final fund closes in 2019. Brazil takes the lion’s share of venture capital deals, accounting for just over half of the amount invested, but 2019 was also a record year for seed or incubator transactions in Argentina, Colombia, and Mexico.41 While this steady growth trajectory will likely be disrupted by coronavirus, some industry sources suggest the situation is not all doom and gloom. An August 2020 survey by LAVCA found that 58% of startups surveyed said the crisis has had a neutral (25%), good (26%), and even very good (7%) impact on their existing business while 49% said it had a good impact on new business opportunities. 42 Accelerator programs such as Startup Farm in Brazil and Startup Chile are aiming to create South American Silicon Valleys and government efforts to stimulate investment and encourage innovation are taking shape.

Brazil’s Legal Framework for Startups was sent to Congress for approval in October 2020 and is seen as a positive development for the sector, although it has been criticised for not addressing tax or labour issues.

Executive director of the Brazilian Association of Startups (ABStartups), José Muritiba, told Latin American Business Stories that:

“It is a great step forward for the entrepreneurial ecosystem, as it better defines some important points for the sector and brings recognition to the relationship between startups and the governmen.” 43 Some notable food industry start-ups include the food delivery unicorns, Colombian Rappi and Brazilian iFood, while in the plant-based space, Chile’s NotCo and Brazil’s Fazenda Futuro stand out from the crowd. NotCo recently closed a $30 million finance round with investment from the Jeff Bezos-owned Bezos Expeditions (among other investors). In the agri-food space, Colombia’s Frubana has developed a B2B e-commerce platform that allows producers to sell directly to retailers, restaurants, and other large consumers. It recently raised $10 million in a seed round.

insights.figlobal.com

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Food safety & consumer trust Trust in the food industry is generally good. Consultancy LLYC surveyed 4,000 consumers across Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Panama, Peru and the Dominican Republic, and found that food and drinks businesses were on average the most trusted (financial services were the least trusted). 44 However, some high-profile scandals, such as Brazil’s Operation Carne Fraca, where major meatpackers were found to have bribed food safety officials to certify rotten meat for sale, vastly eroded public trust both domestically and internationally. 45 Use of voluntary food safety and quality certification is one way to win consumer trust. Although voluntary certification is less prevalent in South America than other regions and tends to target the international export market,46 this is changing. In the past years, Latin America has become one of the biggest regions of growth for Global Food Safety Initiative (GFSI) certification, increasing by 14% in 2019.

Senior project manager at GFSI, Anne Gerardi said that:

“The business case for food safety is gathering momentum in Latin America. There is growing awareness from companies that third party audits create a better food safety culture, manage risk, and generate more consumer trust. Being compliant with local regulations and international standards helps you gain new clients domestically and new export markets.”

GFSI’s work in Latin America has three strategic approaches: Public-private partnerships, whereby it works with regulators and government authorities to harmonise local standards with GFSI benchmarking requirements; its global markets programme, which strengthens the capacity of small and medium-sized enterprises; and building awareness of food safety.47 It has an ongoing memorandum of understanding with the Chilean Agency for Food Safety and Quality, ACHIPIA, and has worked with MINAGRO in Argentina in the past, although maintaining project continuity can be challenging when government administrations change hands, according to Gerardi.

Food operators are also embracing tech-based solutions, such as blockchain and QR codes, to offer consumers assurances on supply chain traceability and transparency.

A number of South American food producers are using blockchain to make their supply chains more traceable with IBM Food Trust, such as Colombian coffee growers through Farmer Connect, Ecuador’s prawn producers through the Sustainable Shrimp Partnership, and Ecuadorian dairy company El Ordeño for its domestic brand TRÜ.

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Key takeaways • The COVID-19 pandemic has created a tough economic outlook for the South American food industry, and affordability and value-for-money will be key as consumers look to make savings.

• However, COVID-19 has also created opportunities in some areas, such as healthy ingredients seen to boost immunity, e-commerce channels, and food delivery.

• Increasing rates of urbanisation, health consciousness, and consumer connectivity are driving a general demand for healthy and natural packaged foods.

• Front-of-pack nutrition labels warning consumers about high levels of salt, sugar and fat are being adopted by governments across South America, intensifying the backlash against sugar and spurring reformulation.

• Food safety is of increasing importance to consumers in South America and voluntary certification levels are relatively low but rising.

• The region offers bright sourcing opportunities for food manufacturers.

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Regions in the Spotlight 12-23 April 2021

Health Ingredients in the Spotlight 14-18 June 2021

Plant-Based Ingredients in the Spotlight 13-17 September 2021

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