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The Manitoba Co-operator | April 10, 2014
WEATHER VANE
Weather now for next week.
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“ E V E R Y O N E T A L K S A B O U T T H E W E A T H E R , B U T N O O N E D O E S A N Y T H I N G A B O U T I T.” M a r k Tw a i n , 18 9 7
Weather pattern remains the same Issued: Monday, April 7, 2014 · Covering: April 9 – April 16, 2014 Daniel Bezte Co-operator contributor
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’m trying to figure out how to make this forecast seem positive. Let’s see: well, to start off this forecast period, we are going to see a short-lived ridge of high pressure migrate across our region. This should bring the mildest temperatures so far this year, with highs in areas with deep snow cover making it into the low teens, while areas along the border could see temperatures as high as the upper teens. Temperatures will cool down a little bit by Thursday as a weak cold front slides through, but we should still see highs around average for this time of the year. An area of low pressure is then forecast to slide through central and northern regions on Friday. This should allow our temperatures to warm up a little bit again, with highs pushing 10 C. On Saturday we could see some showers or flurries on the back side of this low as it moves into northern Ontario. Temperatures will also start to cool down as a large ridge of arctic high pressure — that’s
right, another arctic high — begins to drop southward. This arctic high will bring more unseasonably cold weather to start next week, with highs struggling to make it above 0 C most days. On the positive side, this high will hopefully be strong enough and track far enough south to keep any storm system forecasted to develop next week in the U.S. Midwest, well to our south, allowing us to stay high and dry. Looking further ahead, it does look like milder weather will start to move back in later next week. There is some hint that the much-anticipated switch in our weather pattern might begin late next week, but that’s a long way off and the way this year has been going, I’m not going to hold my breath — but on the positive side, we are definitely overdue for a switch in the weather pattern. Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, +1 to +12 C; lows, -9 to +2 C. Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park. Contact him with your questions and comments at daniel@bezte.ca.
WEATHER MAP - WESTERN CANADA
Percent of Average Precipitation (Prairie Region) November 1, 2013 to March 31, 2014
< 40% 40 - 60% 60 - 85% 85 - 115% 115 - 150% 150 - 200% > 200% Extent of Agricultural Land Lakes and Rivers
Produced using near real-time data that has undergone initial quality control. The map may not be accurate for all regions due to data availability and data errors. Copyright © 2014 Agriculture & Agri-Food Canada Prepared by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s National Agroclimate Information Service (NAIS). Data provided through partnership with Environment Canada, Natural Resources Canada, and many Provincial agencies.
Created: 04/01/14 www.agr.gc.ca/drought
This issue’s map shows the total amount of precipitation that fell across the Prairies during the winter of 2013-14 (Nov. 1 to March 31). Over Alberta, most regions saw average (green) to above-average (blue) amounts of precipitation. Only the extreme north and southern regions saw below-average amounts. In Saskatchewan, most areas saw average amounts of precipitation, with a few areas in the south seeing below-average amounts. In Manitoba, eastern and northern regions saw average amounts of precipitation while southern regions saw below- to well-below-average amounts.
Our 13th-coldest extended winter Of the dozen colder winters we’ve had, only two have been within the last 100 years By Daniel Bezte CO-OPERATOR CONTRIBUTOR
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nother winter has come and gone (hopefully) and I think we can best sum it up by simply saying, “Good riddance!” Most of us are aware this has been one of the coldest winters on record — not so much for the intensity, as we rarely broke any records of cold, but rather, it was just cold day in and day out for months on end. While winter is usually described as being the three-month period starting in December and ending at the end of February, anyone who lives in Canada — well, at least Western Canada — knows winter really starts at the beginning of November and ends at the end of March. So this is the time period we will look at as we take a quick look back at the winter of 2013-14. The winter started off only slightly on the cool side across Manitoba, with all three regions (Winnipeg, Brandon, Dauphin) coming in with a mean November temperature between 0.5 and 1 C below the long-term average. While we were a little on the cold side in November, precipitation, or snowfall, was on the light side, which made November seem not too bad. Both the Winnipeg and Dau-
While temperatures in January were still running around 1 C below the long-term average, compared to December it wasn’t that bad.
phin regions only reported around five centimetres of snow during the month — well below the average of about 25 cm of snow. The Brandon region was a little wetter, with about 15 cm of snow, but still below its November average of 20 cm. All in all, not that bad of a start to winter. Then came December. December saw temperatures plunge across pretty much all of southern and central Manitoba. All three regions saw mean monthly temperatures come in between 5.5 and 6.5 C below average. The Winnipeg and Dauphin regions continued to see below-average amounts of snow, with both locations recording around 10 cm, which is only half the average. The Brandon region was the wet spot, with around 20 cm of snow recorded, or right around average. Extreme southern regions continued to be very dry during December, with most fields having little to no snow cover. Farther north and
east, the snow was really starting to pile up, but because of the low population in this area nobody seemed to notice. After the brutally cold December everyone hoped to see a nice winter thaw move in for January. Our hopes started to rise as we saw temperatures warm up to our west; unfortunately, these warm temperatures never truly made it into our province, at least with any vengeance. It was a warmer month, though, relative to December. While temperatures were still running around 1 C below the long-term average, compared to December it wasn’t that bad. What made the month a little less bearable was the snow and wind. All three regions saw aboveaverage amounts of snow, with around 25 cm reported. Once again, extreme southern regions seemed to miss out on most of the snow, while northeastern areas saw even heavier amounts. Combine the snow
with a lot of wind and the snowdrifts really started building up.
The coldest month
Hopes were high heading into February; after all, January was much warmer than December, so naturally this trend would continue into February. Oh, were we wrong! February ended up being the coldest month of the winter, with mean temperatures running from 6.5 to 7.5 C below the long-term average. You had to go back to January 1977 to find a colder winter month. Snowfall was a little more variable during February, with the Winnipeg region seeing average amounts, the Brandon region reporting above-average amounts, and the Dauphin area seeing below-average amounts. By the time March rolled around, everyone was pretty much fed up with winter. “We deserve to have a nice mild March” seemed to be the consensus of most people I talked to. Well, it seems as if Mother Nature doesn’t like to be told what to do; instead of seeing nice mild weather we saw another month of good-old winter. March 2014 turned out to be well below average, with temperatures running about 6 C below average. Luckily, March temperatures start to warm up significantly, and if you
were able to put the fact that it should be spring out of your head, it was actually a pretty nice winter month. Thankfully, precipitation was on the light side during March, with most areas only seeing about half the average amount. Those areas that had significant snow cover during March had to deal once again with a fair bit of drifting snow, creating snowdrifts where there usually weren’t any before. Looking at the extended winter as a whole (November to March) and using Winnipeg’s values, we had a mean winter temperature of -15.7 C. Looking back at records, this would place the extended winter of 2013-14 as the 13th coldest since record-keeping began in 1872. Of the 12 colder years, only two have occurred within the last 100 years. Coming in 10th place was 1979 (-16.1 C) and in eighth place was the winter of 1936 (-16.5 C). All the remaining cold winters occurred in the late 1800s. The coldest extended winter was in 1875, with a mean winter temperature of -18.2 C. For those of you who are interested, the warmest extended winter occurred only a couple years after the coldest. The winter of 1878 had a mean temperature of only -4.8 C. So there is hope for upcoming winters!