THE EUROPEAN – SECURITY AND DEFENCE UNION
Mrs Hostalier and Mr Koucheida on ESDA Mission in Afghanistan with officers of the Afghan National Security Forces Photo: ESDA Paris
A conflict with international dimensions The European armed presence has not translated into political influence, however, and is not reflected in the strategic decisions regarding Afghanistan and the wider region. Each country applies its own rules of engagement and acts according to national priorities. Seven years after the fall of the Taliban regime, Afghanistan is still synonymous with war, insecurity and economic and social underdevelopment. The spiral into violence has both endogenous and exogenous explanations. In 2001 the defeated Taliban fighters left the towns and cities and withdrew to the villages or found refuge in Pakistan. They were able to regroup and reorganise thanks to the vast Pashtun support network that had grown during the years of war against the Soviet occupation and the Afghan communist regime.
Reasons for the rise in violence The country experienced a period of relative stability between 2002 and 2006, despite the persistent violence. The armed opposition groups – Taliban and others – were active in the east and south of the country, but were held in check by a relatively small international and Afghan military presence. In 2009 the Afghan National Army has 80 000 troops (with plans for its expansion to 134 000 by 2014) and the national police force has 80 000 officers; ISAF numbers 55 000 troops and there are 18 000 American soldiers deployed in Operation Enduring Freedom-Afghanistan (OEF-A). These numbers will be boosted by 21 000 American combat troops, including 4 000 devoted to training, plus equipment. Some 5 000 additional European troops were deployed for the duration of the presidential elections in August 2009. Meanwhile, the security situation in the Pakistani territories on the border with Afghanistan continues to deteriorate with persistent fighting – and the ensuing mass displacement of civilians – in the Swat valley and inside Waziristan between the Pakistan army and militia on the one hand and the Pakistani Taliban on the other. In Afghanistan, the Armed Opposition Groups (AOG) regularly attack or attempt to attack the
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Afghan government and foreign troops, and buildings and structures are destroyed. In Afghanistan, violence is not residual, it is constant.
President Obama’s new strategy The response of the Obama administration was to send in more troops and step up military operations – in keeping with its predecessor’s decision. Such fighting talk does not scare the AOG – there is no sign of a mass surrender as yet – but it does raise further doubts about the real reasons behind this engagement with the public in contributor countries and with the Afghan government which is trying to increase its authority and become less dependent on foreign forces. In an effort to moderate the warlike tone of such messages, political and military leaders from Europe and America put forward arguments in support of economic and social reconstruction. However, an investment and infrastructure development plan has yet to be launched and is waiting on the payment of contributions from donor states and international institutions facing a global economic crisis.
Majority of funding goes on the military For a country of 32 million inhabitants, the 10 billion dollars pledged over five years (2006-2010) under the London Afghanistan Compact represents five dollars per capita per month. At the Paris Conference in 2008, the European states, the United States and the other countries concerned, in particular Japan, pledged a further 21 billion over five years (in reality only a further 14 billion), which represents seven dollars per capita per month.
Too little budget for civil operations These pledges for reconstruction and social and economic development and assistance represent one tenth of the sums devoted to military operations. For the 2009-2010 period, the budget allocated for American military operations in Afghanistan is over 24 billion dollars, almost half a billion per week. The United States has also promised 3.6 billion dollars of assistance for the Afghan National Security Forces (army and