Farmers' Advance 11-11-2020

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FARMERS' ADVANCE WWW.FARMERSADVANCE.COM

Vol. 124, No. 46 • 1 Section, 20 Pages Vol. 119, No. 45 • 3 Sections, 44 Pages

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Ag Economy Barometer rises to record high on improving financial conditions

Ag Economy Barometer rises to record high on improving financial conditions. (Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer, James Mintert)

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WEST LAFAYETTE, IN -- The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer rose 27 points to a reading of 183 in October and set an alltime high for the index. Farmers were more optimistic about both the future and current financial situation on their farms as the Current Conditions Index rose 36 points to a reading of 178 and the Future Expectations Index rose 23 points to a reading of 186. The Ag Economy Barometer is based on survey responses from 400 U.S. agricultural producers and

was conducted Oct. 19-23. “Since bottoming out this summer, the ag economy has rebounded sharply, and the dramatic improvement in sentiment reflects the turnaround in the farm income picture,” said James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial

Agriculture. Mintert was referring to a late summer/early fall rally in commodity prices combined with government program payments arising from the second round of the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP 2), which provided a boost to many producers’ farm income. Corn and soybean prices continued to rally even though U.S. corn yields are expected to set a record high and the U.S. Department of Agriculture projects soybean yields to be the fourth highest on record. “Together the combination of good yields, a rally in crop prices and CFAP 2 payments set the stage for an all-time high in the barometer and farmer sentiment,” Mintert said. That optimism was reflected in many ways. Comparing their farm’s financial condition today to one year ago, 25% of survey respondents said their farm was better off financially now than at the same time last year. This was the most positive response from producers to this question in the history of the barometer survey. The Farm Capital Investment Index also hit an all-time high in October, up 9 points from September to a reading 82. The percentage of producers expecting to increase their purchases of machinery in the upcoming year rose to 14% from 11%

a month earlier, and up from just 4% back in May. Even more importantly, the percentage of respondents who plan to reduce their purchases in the next year was 33%, down from 40% in September. The short-run outlook toward farmland values also improved. Respondents expecting land values to rise over the next 12 months rose to 27%, up from 23% in September. The percentage expecting lower farmland values declined to 9% from 12%. There was also a big shift in sentiment in the October survey regarding 2021 cash rental rates for farmland. Nearly four out of 10 (38%) respondents said they expect cash rental rates to increase in 2021. In September, just 8% of producers said they expected to see higher cash rental rates for farmland in 2021. Producers also became more optimistic about trade with China this month. Nearly six out of 10 respondents (59%), said they expect to see China fulfill the food and agricultural import requirements outlined in the Phase One trade agreement with the U.S., compared with just 47% in September. When asked for their overall perspective on U.S. ag exports, the percentage of producers expecting exports to rise over the next five years increased to 65% in October, up from 58% in September.

Buckeye Shepherd's Symposium moves to online format The Ohio Sheep Improvement Association invites shepherds of all ages, sectors and regions to attend the Buckeye Shepherd’s Symposium on Dec. 4 to expand their knowledge of sheep nutrition and connect with their peers. For the first time in the association’s 71-year history, the annual symposium will be entirely online. This year’s event will be offered in a condensed format, featuring multiple guest speakers presenting in various formats and styles about flock nutrition, with no fee to register. Through partnerships with the Ohio Sheep and Wool Program and The Ohio State University, OSIA will offer an easily accessible and vast reaching event. The OSU Extension Agriculture and Natural Resources program will serve as the virtual host for the symposium on Dec. 4 from 2-5

p.m. through an interactive webinar. Anyone interested in attending the Buckeye Shepherd’s Symposium, the OSIA Annual Meeting, or the Shepherd’s Social Hour later in the evening, can register online at their convenience by visiting and completing the submission form at https://go.osu.edu/ohiosheep to receive the meeting connection information. Immediately following the symposium webinar, the floor will be opened for the 2020 OSIA Annual Meeting. All in attendance for the symposium are welcomed to join, although only dues paying members will have their votes counted on election items. Those who choose to attend the annual meeting exclusively may do so at the same registration page as the symposium (https://go.osu.edu/ohiosheep) and join the webinar from 5 to 5:30 p.m.

At the adjournment of the annual meeting, all are encouraged to enjoy a lamb dinner individually and gather again at 7:30 p.m. for the virtual Shepherd’s Social Hour. In similar fashion as the prior Young Shepherds Assembly gatherings, this opportunity will allow shepherds to meet in an informal space to continue networking and sharing ideas on how to support and improve the sheep industry for the current and future generations. All are welcome to join regardless of age or experience level. The social hour will be hosted by Buckeye Shepherd’s Symposium Co-Chair Christine Gelley in a Zoom meeting room. To ensure cyber security, the Zoom link and password for this meeting room will be distributed during the symposium webinar or by special request.

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