Future Forest

Future Forest

Examining Climate Change Impacts & Adaptation in the Green Mountain State

Future Forest V1.0 - Spring 2014 Š Eammon Coughlin

Future Forest Examining Climate Change Impacts & Adaptation in the Green Mountain State

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1-2

Introduction

3-6 7-12

How Will Climate Change Impact Vermont Forests?

Changing Climate, Changing Forest Species Winner and Losers Tables Understanding Climate

30 4

Afterword

How Has Climate Change Impacted Vermont Forests?

Taking Measure Changing Hardiness Zones

21-22

What Can be done?

Adaptation Strategies Mobilizing for Action

INTRODUCTION The global extent of the human footprint suggests that humans are stewards of nature, whether we like it or not. The long-term impact of human influence, positive or negative, benign or catastrophic, depends on our willingness to shoulder responsibility for our stewardship.

-Sanderson et al. The Human Footprint and the Last of the Wild. Bioscience. 2002

57% Unforested

43% Forested

A society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they shall never sit in.

-Proverb (lame quote)

1900

The improvement of forest trees is the work of centuries. So much more the reason for beginning now.

-George Perkins Marsh, Letter to C. S. Sargent, 12 Jun 1879

23% Unforested

While climate change is In 2012, the USDA updated its hardiness zone maps for the US. The update revealed widespread zone changes that had occurred since the previous update in 1990. This project was conceived as a two part investigation. The first part (this work) focuses on the impact of climate change on natural systems and how Vermonters could decide to act. The following portion will focus on the built environment and in particular how Vermonters could change building patterns to to adapt to increased storms.

77% Forested

1990 Most Vermonters have some knowledge of the vast changes the state has undergone in the last 100 years as farmland and pasture have grown back into forests. Much less is known about about what could happen in

5

1-2 Taking Measure Changing Hardiness Zones

Introduction

6

Changing Climate, Changing Forest Species Winner and Losers Tables Understanding Climate

3-6

6-12

How Has Climate Change Impacted Vermont Forests?

How Will Climate Change Impact Vermont Forests?

21-22 What Can be done? Adaptation Strategies

Mobilizing for Action

7

Introduction The global extent of the human footprint suggests that humans are stewards of nature, whether we like it or not. The long-term impact of human influence, positive or negative, benign or catastrophic, depends on our willingness to shoulder responsibility for our stewardship.

-Sanderson et al. The Human Footprint and the Last of the Wild. Bioscience. 2002

43% Forested

A society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they shall never sit in.

-Proverb (lame quote)

1900

The improvement of forest trees is the work of centuries. So much more the reason for beginning now.

-George Perkins Marsh, Letter to C. S. Sargent, 12 Jun 1879

23% Unforested

In 2012, the USDA updated its hardiness zone maps for the US. The update revealed widespread zone changes that had occurred since the previous update in 1990. This project was conceived as a two part investigation. The first part (this work) focuses on the impact of climate change on natural systems and how Vermonters could decide to act. The following portion will focus on the built environment and in particular how Vermonters could change building patterns to to adapt to increased storms.

8

57% Unforested

77% Forested

1990 Most Vermonters have some knowledge of the vast changes the state has undergone in the last 100 years as farmland and pasture have grown back into forests. Much less is known about about what could happen in the next 100 years.

9

TAKING MEASURE: Climate Indicators

10

Last Spring Freeze:

First Autumn Freeze:

Growing Season:

~11.5 ~7.5

~18.5

Days Earlier

Days Later

Days Longer

Since 1960

Since 1960

Since 1960

Small Lake Freeze Up:

Small Lake Ice Out

Lilac First Leaf:

Lilac First Bloom:

~19.5 ~14.5 ~14.5 ~8 Days Later

Days Earlier

Since 1960

Since 1960

Days Earlier

Days Earlier

Since 1960

Since 1960

11

TAKING MEASURE: Changing Hardiness Zones In 2012, the USDA updated its hardiness zone maps for the US. The update revealed widespread zone changes that had occurred since the previous update in 1990

12

Zone 3b reduced to few isolated areas

3b 4a 4b 5a

Zone 5b appears for first time in southern portion of state

5b

1990

2012 13

Shifting Forests In 2012, the USDA updated its hardiness zone maps for the US. The update revealed widespread zone changes that had occurred since the previous update in 1990

The change in elevation on Vermont’s highest peaks produces a climactic gradient that influences forest types. A similar gradient is found along Vermont’s North-South Axis.

14

High Elevation Boreal Forest

Ecotone B

ou

nd

~100m Since 1964

ary

Northern Hardwood Forest 15

Subheading In 2012, the USDA updated its hardiness zone maps for the US. The update revealed widespread zone changes that had occurred since the previous update in 1990

16

LOW EMISSIONS SCENARIO (GREY)

1961-1990

2010-2039

2040-2069

2070-2090

2010-2039

HIGH EMISSIONS SCENARIO (BLACK)

2040-2069

2070-2090

2070-2090

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

17

Subheading In 2012, the USDA updated its hardiness zone maps for the US. The update revealed widespread zone changes that had occurred since the previous update in 1990 Caborit que simpore namuscia doluptatur aut et, qui opta vid quatinveriae vel et venduntis as que pro volorro iur?

Harum eos nimoluptas eaquunt dolore estotatur? Antis verum quam, samus, torerum eumque volumquis nos aliqui alia voloraese volescipit dolo evelia que volentium est, nist, nos ipisimusam isto consecae del minvent idemqui dolut untem aut pratur ad molupta ea quunditat dolessi coratem res utatus ex explique parunt accume audam nos erumquam faceseque nis intis qui corita alicatiorum ad undamenti aut la voluptia volores equame moluptatur, optatia speliquis parum, ullenim ressinciis a sunt repeles tiunte ni am as alis enis et lant pres a volupti del es con praturero blabo. Serchilitium harum vitatemqui unt.

Sed ma que seque necae mos que plit iunt.

Fuga. Itas ad maximol uptatios maximus, quo conseque nos eicid que lantisi mporunt, odipsunt ad que pratem re, quodita sunt adi aut restiant as poreritatum sum ex et quatectur, sin reium faceperum vel imenecus prat lacesti nam fugitis maiostrum quatur? Quis rerferum aut at exceatemquam nemque porum volorum quibus re omnis audae nonsed es voluptatur, sit que vendi ommod quo quo 18

Maple/Beech/Birch

Oak/Pine/Hickory Over time, Vermont’s Forests will shift from those dominated by Maple, Beech and Birch, to those dominated by Oak Pine and Hickory.

Spruce/Fir Forests potentially eliminated under low emissions scenario

Current Distribution

Low Emissions Scenario (~2100)

Maple/Beech/Birch Forests give way to Oak/Hickory under high emissions scenario

High Emissions Scenario (~2100)

Oak / Hickory

Shifting Forests

Loblolly / Shortleaf Pine

Spruce / Fir

Elm / Ash / Cottonwood

Other

Maple / Beech / Birch

No Data

19

TREE SPECIES: WINNERS

Ranked by Gcm3AvgHiDif (average of 3 High Emissions Climate models). Higher score indicates suitable habitat more likely to expand

20

Species with suitable habitat projected to expand in Vermont

1

Quercus alba White Oak

2

Juniperus virginiana Eastern Red Cedar

6

Quercus prinus Chestnut Oak

11

Populus deltoides Eastern Cottonwood

3

Quercus velutina Black Oak

Cornus florida Flowering Dogwood

7

Morus rubra Red Mulberry

8

Quercus rubra Northern Red Oak

12

Liriodendron tulipifera Tulip Poplar

4

13

Gleditsia triacanthos Honey Locust

5

Quercus stellata Post Oak

10

9

Celtis occidentalis Hackberry

Ulmus americana American Elm

14

Sassafras albidum Sassafras

15

Juglans nigra Black Walnut

TREE SPECIES: LOSERS

Decline of Culturally and Ecologically Important Species

Sugar Maple Vermont state tree and economically important species

22

Paper Birch Symbol of the northern forest

Eastern Hemlock Third most common tree in Vermont and crucial riparian species

Species with suitable habitat projected to decline in Vermont

1

2

Abies balsamea Balsam Fir

Acer saccharum Sugar Maple

6

Picea rubens Red Spruce

7

Acer pensylvanicum Striped Maple

12

Prunus pensylvanica Pin Cherry

4

Betula alleghaniensis Yellow Birch

Fagus grandifolia American Beech

Populus tremuloides Quaking Aspen

11

3

8

Acer rubrum Red Maple

Betula papyrifera Paper Birch

9

Pinus strobus Eastern White Pine

13

Thuja occidentalis Northern White Cedar

14

Fraxinus nigra Black Ash

5

10

Tsuga canadensis Eastern Hemlock

15

Acer spicatum Mountain Maple

BIRD SPECIES: WINNERS Recent studies have focused on projecting the habitat areas of various bird species based on climate change and warming.

24

Species with suitable habitat projected to expand in Vermont

1

Baeolophus bicolor Tufted Titmouse

2

11

Guiraca caerulea Blue Grosbeak

4

Melanerpes carolinus Red-Bellied Woodpecker

5

Icteria virens Yellow Breasted Chat

Colinus virginianus Northern Bobwhite

Coccyzus americanus Yellow-billed Cuckoo

7

8

9

10

Red Cardinal Cardinalis cardinalis

Thryothorus ludovicianus Carolina Wren

Mimus polyglottos Northern Mockingbird

13

14

15

6

Polioptila caerulea Blue-gray Gnatcatcher

3

Icterus spurius Orchard Oriole

12

Oporornis formosus Kentucky Warbler

Vireo griseus White-eyed Vireo

Eremophila alpestris Horned Lark

Piranga rubra Summer Tanager

BIRD SPECIES: LOSERS Recent studies have focused on projecting the habitat areas of various bird species based on climate change and warming.

Loss of Culturally and Ecologically Important Species

Ruffed Grouse

Important State gamebird

26

Hermit Thrush State bird

Northern Loon

Symbol of the northern forest

Species with suitable habitat projected to decline in Vermont

1

Tachycineta bicolor Tree Swallow

2

Dolichonyx oryzivorus Bobolink

6

Bombycilla cedrorum Cedar Waxwing

11

Passerculus sandwichensis Savannah Sparrow

3

Zonotrichia albicollis White-Throated Sparrow

7

Catharus guttatus Hermit Thrush

8

Sphyrapicus varius Yellow-bellied Sapsucker

12

Vermivora ruficapilla Nashville Warbler

13

Setophaga ruticilla American Redstart

4

Catharus fuscescens Veery

5

Dendroica coronata Yellow-rumped Warbler

9

Carpodacus purpureus Purple Finch

14

Sitta canadensis Red-breasted Nuthatch

10

Troglodytes troglodytes Winter Wren

15

Melospiza georgiana Swamp Sparrow

Subheading In 2012, the USDA updated its hardiness zone maps for the US. The update revealed widespread zone changes that had occurred since the previous update in 1990 Caborit que simpore namuscia doluptatur aut et, qui opta vid quatinveriae vel et venduntis as que pro volorro iur?

Harum eos nimoluptas eaquunt dolore estotatur? Antis verum quam, samus, torerum eumque volumquis nos aliqui alia voloraese volescipit dolo evelia que volentium est, nist, nos ipisimusam isto consecae del minvent idemqui dolut untem aut pratur ad molupta ea quunditat dolessi coratem res utatus ex explique parunt accume audam nos erumquam faceseque nis intis qui corita alicatiorum ad undamenti aut la voluptia volores equame moluptatur, optatia speliquis parum, ullenim ressinciis a sunt repeles tiunte ni am as alis enis et lant pres a volupti del es con praturero blabo. Serchilitium harum vitatemqui unt.

Sed ma que seque necae mos que plit iunt.

Fuga. Itas ad maximol uptatios maximus, quo conseque nos eicid que lantisi mporunt, odipsunt ad que pratem re, quodita sunt adi aut restiant as poreritatum sum ex et quatectur, sin reium faceperum vel imenecus prat lacesti nam fugitis maiostrum quatur? Quis rerferum aut at exceatemquam nemque porum volorum quibus re omnis audae nonsed es voluptatur, sit que vendi ommod quo quoIncius pro magnata temque ra di berunto voloressecum dunt, conest acest res endest aut alia veni conempo reriatem ex exped quid quamus voleniatem quatur sed ut aut deliqua spient.

Cestrum quatur sitiore sit volutem quam adiassi nctassit, omnimust quibusam everum at laborehentio et alitature 28

Increased erosion

increased storms

Gap Creation

Increased Pests / Invasives

increased temperatures

Forest Health Declines

Heat / Drought Stress Greater nutrient export - loss of base cations increase in denitrification

warmer wetter winters and drier summers

Water Quality Declines / Eutrophication

Higher Water Temperatures Species migrate north as they cease to regenerate further south

1 PROTECT AND RESTORE RIPARIAN AREAS

Riparian areas could play a crucial role in Vermont’s climate change adaptation efforts. Through the conservation of existing riparian areas as well as riparian restoration, benefits to biodiversity and from ecosystem services could be realized.

Riparian area protection and restoration would have a strong impact on animal life, including the Vermont cold water fishery as well as bird and mammal populations that use riparian corridors for movement and feeding. Moreover, enhanced riparian areas would help to provide a “buffer” against other stressors that might be generated by climate change. Riparian areas often cross climatic gradients as they move from high to low elevations thus connecting them. Additionally, the microclimate created in riparian areas creates refugia for plant and animal species, helping to preserve biodiversity. Some species, such as Trout, are especially sensitive to temperature changes.

30

31

2 MANAGE URBAN FORESTS

Climate change will exacerbate the environmental effects associated with urbanization, including changes to hydrology and the urban heat island. Carefully managed urban forests, even in Vermont’s small towns, could help to shade parking areas, homes and other buildings. Increased shade could help to alleviate the warmer temperatures caused about by climate change and would have ancillary effects such as reducing urban air pollution and lowering energy costs during summer.

Furthermore, as part of integrated stormwater management systems, urban trees could mitigate stormwater brought about by increased precipitation from climate change. This would have profound impacts on downstream waterways by reducing suspended solids and chemical pollutants discharged to waterways. Moreover, managing urban forests for stormwater mitigation benefit could help to reduce flooding by capturing and percolating stormwater into the soil before it reaches urban streams.

Researchers have identified several broad strategies for adapting urban forests to climate change. These included planning for the diversity of of the urban forest, both in species and the genetic diversity of individual species. Diversity will ensure that urban forests don’t “have all their eggs in one basket” and will help to reduce impacts from future stressors including disease. Additionally, tree and vegetation species traits, such as those that provide greater shade or those suited to stormwater management should help to guide urban forest planning. Moreover, urban forests should include a range of species adapted to warmer climates.

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33

3 ENGAGE CITIZENS THROUGH MONITORING

34

35

REDEFINE NATIVE AND NATURAL

36

37

3 ENGAGE CITIZENS THROUGH MONITORING

38

39

Adaptation:

and india on the verge of becoming first world nations Connect degraded habitats Protect Waterways and Riparian areas Return unused lands to forests Leverage unused space for nursery areas and habitat reconstruction Translocate species - phenotypes from

40

41

Understanding Forest Impacts In 2012, the USDA updated its hardiness zone maps for the US. The update revealed widespread zone changes that had occurred since the previous update in 1990 Caborit que simpore namuscia doluptatur aut et, qui opta vid quatinveriae vel et venduntis as que pro volorro iur?

Harum eos nimoluptas eaquunt dolore estotatur? Antis verum quam, samus, torerum eumque volumquis nos aliqui alia voloraese volescipit dolo evelia que volentium est, nist, nos ipisimusam isto consecae del minvent idemqui dolut untem aut pratur ad molupta ea quunditat dolessi coratem res utatus ex explique parunt accume audam nos

Figure x.x Predicted climate change impacts on forests Warmer wetter winters & warmer drier summers

Expansion of southern bird species

Expansion of pest species: Emerald Ash Borer, Hemlock Wooly Adelgid and Asian Long horn Beetle

Gap creation due to tree mortality and wind throw

More intense storms greater precipitation

Decline of northern bird species

Decline of northern tree species Maple, Birch, Beech

H2O Warming and drying of ponds and streams Increased evaporation & transpiration

Expansion of southern tree species Oak, Pine, Hickory

42

Increased erosion

NO3, Al, Ca2+ H +, K

Increased loss of base cations, acids & nutrients from forests

Expansion of invasive species Buckthorn, Knotweed, Phragmites, etc.

4 1

Waterways exposed to more sunlight

Eastern Hemlock provides dense shade cover in riparian areas

Heat Stress

Drought

Adelges tsugae Hemlock Wooly Adelgid

2

5

Figure x.x Possible “domino effect� of climate change on Eastern Hemlock dominated riparian areas

Climate change increases stressors & pests

NO3, Al, Ca2+ H+, K

Base cations and nutrients lost from surrounding forest into streams and rivers

3

6

Hemlock declines in riparian areas

H2O temperatures rise. Waterways face greater acidification and eutrophication from increased nutrient loading. Cold water fish habitat & H2O quality declines

43

1 Protect and Restore Riparian Areas Goals:

Seavy et al. 2009 lays out a convincing argument for riparian restoration in the face of climate change and its effects. Among the Enhancing Connectivity Promoting Linkages between Aquatic and Terrestrial Systems Expanding Thermal Refugia Hydrological Benefits

Riparian Restoration Riparian areas could play a crucial role in climate change adaptation as well as helping to mitigate the effects of more frequent intense storms and flooding.

44

Zone 3b reduced to few isolated areas

45

1 Protect and Restore Riparian Areas

46

47

1 Protect and Restore Riparian Areas

48

49

1 Increase Landscape Connectivity

daptation:

p://birds.audubon.org/birds-climate-change-move

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51

Conserve More Land

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53

Conserve More Land

What is the Future Forest?

INVESTIGATING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS & ADAPTATION IN THE GREEN MOUNTAIN STATE

Assisted Colonization

54

Species Migrations Assisted Colonization

Increased Pest Invasions

55

What is the Future Forest?

Assisted Colonization

INVESTIGATING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS & ADAPTATION IN THE GREEN MOUNTAIN STATE

56

Species Migrations

Increased Pest Invasions

57

Do We Act?

True Climate Predictions?

False

Yes

No

Massive cost but crisis averted

Catastrophe

Massive cost w/ little benefit

No Change

Climate Change Decision Matrix This decision matrix, popularized by author Greg Craven

58

Adaptation: Reduce greenhouse gas emissions - hahah, like that will ever happen, not with fucking china and india on the verge of becoming first world nations Connect degraded habitats Protect Waterways and Riparian areas Return unused lands to forests Leverage unused space for nursery areas and habitat reconstruction Translocate species - phenotypes from 59

Understanding Forest Impacts In 2012, the USDA updated its hardiness zone maps for the US. The update revealed widespread zone changes that had occurred since the previous update in 1990 Caborit que simpore namuscia doluptatur aut et, qui opta vid quatinveriae vel et venduntis as que pro volorro iur?

Harum eos nimoluptas eaquunt dolore estotatur? Antis verum quam, samus, torerum eumque volumquis nos aliqui alia voloraese volescipit dolo evelia que volentium est, nist, nos ipisimusam isto consecae del minvent idemqui dolut untem aut pratur ad molupta ea quunditat dolessi coratem res utatus ex explique parunt accume audam nos

60

4 1

Waterways exposed to more sunlight

Eastern Hemlock provides dense shade cover in riparian areas

Heat Stress

Drought

Adelges tsugae Hemlock Wooly Adelgid

2

5

Figure x.x Possible “domino effect� of climate change on Eastern Hemlock dominated riparian areas

Climate change increases stressors & pests

NO3, Al, Ca2+ H+, K

Base cations and nutrients lost from surrounding forest into streams and rivers

3

6

Hemlock declines in riparian areas

H2O temperatures rise. Waterways face greater acidification and eutrophication from increased nutrient loading. Cold water fish habitat & H2O quality declines

61

UNDERSTANDING FOREST IMPACTS More intense storms greater precipitation

Expansion of pest species: Emerald Ash Borer, Hemlock Wooly Adelgid and Asian Long horn Beetle

Expansion of southern bird species

Warmer wetter winters & warmer drier summers Increased evaporation & transpiration

NO3, Al, Ca2+ H+, K

Increased erosion

62

Expansion of southern tree species Oak, Pine, Hickory

Increased loss of base cations, acids & nutrients from forests

H2O H2O Increased loss of base cations, acids & nutrients from forests

Warming and drying of ponds and streams

Gap creation due to tree mortality and wind throw

Decline of northern bird species Decline of northern tree species Maple, Birch, Beech

Expansion of invasive species Buckthorn, Knotweed, Phragmites, etc.

63