Epilogue because there is more to know
CONTENTS
www.epilogue.in Editor Zafar Iqbal Choudhary
Prologue Letters to the editor
3 4
Consulting Editor D. Suba Chandran
Hear & Hear Who Said What
5
Associate Editor Irm Amin Baig
News Wrap J&K Stories
7
Designs & Layout Keshav Sharma
Column Vision From Valley Srinagar Sentiments Days Gone By
44 51 53
Ladakh Project Himank Diary
44 47
Mailing Address PO Box 50, HO Gandhi Nagar, Jammu
Volume 2, Issue 9, October 2008
IN FOCUS Phones & email Office : +91 191 2493136 Editorial: +91 94191 80762 Administration: +91 94190 00123 editor@epilogue.in editor.epilogue@gmail.com subscription@epilogue.in Edited, Printed, Published and Owned by Zafar Iqbal Choudhary. Published from : Ibadat House, Madrasa Lane, Near Graveyard, Bathindi Top, Jammu, J&K 180012 and Printed at : DEE DEE Reprographix, 3 Aikta Ashram, New Rehari Jammu (J&K)
LoC Trade
17 18
Beginning Of A New Chapter Interview Mubeen Shah
22
Interview Ram Sahai
23
Document Indo-Pak Joint Statement
24 38
Making Borders Irrelevant Poonch-Rawlakote The Road Much Traveled, Less Visisted
Disputes, if any, subject to jurisdiction of courts and competitive tribunals in Jammu only. Price : Rs 15
For more News, Views & Analysis Log on to www.epilogue.in Epilogue Ă˜ 1Ă— October 2008
MAKE YOUR CONNECTION TODAY
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JAMMU & KASHMIR POLITICS BUSINESS VIEWS & NEWS
CULTURE STRATEGIC AFFAIRS
P R O L O G U E FROM THE EDITOR
Let Boundaries Blur
Zafar Choudhary
F
or all those Kashmir is anything to look at, transLoC contacts have always been a major suggestion to ease tension not only between two divided parts of troubled Jammu and Kashmir but also between India and Pakistan. For a layman, trading with each other means investing in each other –investing in business, investing in trust, investing in confidence, investing in cooperation and investing in peace. When the an area of dispute becomes area of mutual investment in all the above sectors it can, of course, change destiny of it land and people. Therefore, the agreement of trans-LoC trade between two parts of Jammu and Kashmir comes as a biggest confidence building measure of all the initiatives taken by India and Pakistan towards resolving Kashmir and having cordial relations with each other. Though the trade across LoC begins in October as a symbolic measure of building confidence between both sides but eventually it will be trade between India and Pakistan and Kashmir will be the bridge. After a big hearted initiative of India and Pakistan, once Jammu and Kashmir sets the trend, India and Pakistan will learn from here the basics of investing in each other. They will have to change the mindset. See, Pakistan is world's largest importer of tea and India largest producer. Still Pakistan does
not import tea from India. Similarly, Pakistan is one of largest producer of molasses and India one of biggest consumers but there is no mutual trade. Being partners in trade, Pakistan and India can emerge as stable economic powers and also resolve their most contentious issue of Kashmir which has been eating up their economies to the roots. The trans-LoC trade will go down in the annals of history as the most practical measure towards economic integration of the region divided at birth. While this calls for celebrations, at the same time there is need to look inwards. The trade ties are breaking down between Kashmir and Jammu. Trade was perhaps one major area where these two regions of the state enjoyed a level playing. With political and social ties between two regions already bruised, severing of trade ties is fraught with dangerous consequences. Onus is on all stakeholders to save state from this disaster. With a report from United States Institute of Peace as cover feature, our present issue looks at the whole scope and future of trans-LoC contacts towards blurring of borders. Our most sincere thanks are due to USIP and in particular Mr Kay Hechler for endowing to Epilogue their latest report 'Making Borders Irrelevant'. Feedback : Zafarchoudhary@epilogue.in
Epilogue Ă˜ 3Ă— October 2008
Epilogue because there is more to know
EPILOGUE aims at providing a platform where a meaningful exchange of ideas, opinion and thoughts can take place among the people and about the people of Jammu & Kashmir. The attempt is to research, investigate, communicate and disseminate information, ideas and alternatives for the resolution of common problems facing the state and society of Jammu & Kashmir and in the context of their significance to South Asia as a whole. We welcome contributions from academics, journalists, researchers, economists and strategic thinkers. We would also like to encourage first-time writers with the only requirements being a concern for and the desire to understand the prevailing issues and themes of life in Jammu & Kashmir Contributions may be investigative, descriptive, analytical or theoretical. They may be in the form of original articles or in the form of a comment on current events. All contributions have to be neatly typed in double space and may be sent to the address given alongside or e-mailed to the editor. While the editor accepts responsibility for the selection of the material published, individual authors are responsible for the facts, figures and views in their articles.
M A I L
B O X
LETTERS TO THE EDITOR
Mail your letters to editor@epilogue.in
Mirror to state of affairs
Political duplicity
Welcome initiative on Ladakh
No one can deny the fact that the state failed to tackle the Land issue, Gautam Navlakha's deep rooted research based fact story is a mirror for the state politics and immature policies of the state and union to handle the sensitive issue of Kashmir. He not only described the background but also tries to depict the further consequences of the policy failure of the government in Kashmir. I am really happy to experience such a wonderful analytical story and he truly deserves congratulations for his wonderful piece of work with EPILOGUE.
It is ridiculous when Jenab Shafi Uri blames his political rivals and India for mis-handling the situation in the state during the Amarnath land controversy, N.C has ruled the state for a long time, they had even shared the power at center with the saffron brigade, but then they never even tried to bring transparency on the issue on the conscious mind of Jammu region on the discrimination. It would have been better if his senior leaders had also adopted a balanced approach while parroting different slogans in Jammu, Delhi and Kashmir.
The world knows a very little about Ladakh and the knowledge and interest of even the journalists mainly remained focused on tourism in Ladakh, but with EPILOGUE we are able to know and explore Ladakh and its economy beyond tourism. Really it is quite appreciable that you provided us a glimpse of real Ladakh beyond tourism. Prior to your Story we could not even believe that farming would have been the profession of Ladakh people.
Anu Sharma, Scholar, Jammu University
Shehraza Malik, Law Student, Pune
Keep it up Press, not so free With a hope of continuity of EPILOGUE to depict the socio-political scenario of Jammu and Kashmir to the world, we feel proud to be the reader of Jammu and Kashmir's perhaps only such Magazine available throughout the country. Any how the last issue of the magazine was fabulous and especially the 'movie reviews' at the same time it is really a matter of concern for us that how a smaller issue got the potential of a wildfire in the state.
The credibility of media was doubted and there was an attempt to oppress the freedom of press, EPILOGUE's chronological views on the number of incidence of attacks on the journalists and cameramen clearly enlights on the duplicity of the state on the name of so called freedom of press. What could be more shameful for a democracy when your voice is thrashed with guns and force ?
Dr. Zeeshan Chouhan Unani Medicines, Srinagar
Imran ul Hasan, District: Ramban
Epilogue Ă˜ 4Ă— October 2008
Suraj Parkash, Bangalore
Obvious Divide A small administrative order over the land transfer gathered the momentum and put the state on fire, there was an obvious reaction form both the sides, whereas in Jammu they came with discrimination saga and in the valley Hurriyat and other mainstream parties also missed no chance to fuel the fire. Its hurting but still the fact that the two months agitation has divided the state, like Russia and U.S.A during their cold war period, the two regions of the state have fallen into the vicious trap of vested interests. The last issue of EPILOGUE represented the balanced views from both the regions and have a p p re c i a b ly a d op te d a u n i q u e approach. Satyam Bhagat, Rohini, New Delhi
H E A R
A N D
H E A R
WHO SAID WHAT
Central Government should nationalize the road to the Amarnath Yatra so that in future no attempt is made to disturb the social harmony for political reasons Rajnath Singh, National President, BJP
We do not have ideological compatibility with any party. It is easy to go for alliance in any other state but not in J&K. Arun Jaitely, Senior Leader BJP
I believe that the Hurriyat has the right to say that they represent the people, I don't think that only those who participate in elections have the right to claim representation of the people. Saif-ud-din Soz, Union Minister for Water Resources
I don’t believe that independence for Kashmir is a feasible or a viable option and I stand by that.
Starting trade on Cross-LOC route is a non-issue for us. Our struggle is far right to self determination. Syed Ali Shah Geelani, Senior Separatist Leader
Omar Abdullah, President N.C.
Elections are essential to ensure a legitimate representative status. The Hurriyat Conference should contest elections so that the people may take them seriously at home and aborad. Bhim Singh, Supremo, JKNPP
Trifurcation of Jammu and Kashmir is completely out of question. We are committed to address alienation with all sensitivity. Sonia Gandhi, President Congress Party
Addressing the public sentiments with open mind is a challenge and gun could not be state's medium of expression in the current scenario.
Kashmir remains the 'core issue' between India and Pakistan and every Pakistan ExGovernment has viewed it so. The Pakistani position is well know.
Mufti Mohd. Sayeed, Former Chief Minister Asif Ali Zardari, President, Pakistan
Epilogue Ø 5× October 2008
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J&K STORIES
ELECTIONS
International Audience, Domestic Dissidence Delaying Assembly Polls
S
ome four months back when then Chief Secretary BR Kundal resigned to join Ghulam Nabi Azad cabinet, elections were seen happening anytime then. Ministers were missing from their secretariat offices as all politicians were fanned out to their electoral constituencies. Ruling coalition partners Peoples Democratic Party and the Congress were as usual, warring against each other take credit of populist measures –many of them still waiting to be announced. It was apparently with an eye on garnering more seats in the Hindu majority Jammu region that Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad did a quick approval to Amarnath shrine land allotment and the PDP of Muftis opposed move playing up to its Kashmir constituency. Four months down the line, the mainstream political landscape has been changed to so worst that even talk of elections is sounding ridiculous. As per the legislative calendar, by this time the poll season in Jammu and Kashmir should have been at its zenith. Post-Amarnath land row, the mainstream politics has got such a severe beating that not only the political parties but also the Election Commission of India is clueless about election timing. Term of present Jammu and Kashmir and Legislative Assembly (dissolved on July 10 after fall of Ghulam Nabi Azad government) was to end on November 20 and a new government should have been elected by that time. A little over 50 days have left for that deadline but there is still no movement on the poll front. Almost all political parties, except BJP, clearly put their foot down to the disturbed security scenario when the Election Commission of India had its first consultation meeting in New Delhi on September 8. With their wide Valley base, Peoples Democratic Party and the National Conference told election commission that situation in Kashmir was not suitable for elections. The Congress, with a poor presence in Valley and drastically shrunk base in Jammu region, played it diplomatically. “We have left it to the Election Commission to decide poll dates”, said Union Minister and state Congress President Saif-ud-Din Soz. “We
are ready whenever Commission decides”. BJP is the one party which wants elections held as soon as possible. “If Kashmir is not ready for elections why should Jammu and Ladakh regions wait for that”, says Arun Jaitly party general secretary and incharge of J&K affairs. When asked about the separatist movement in Kashmir which may bring the poll participation down to negligible, Jaitly said, “this is a wrong notion. More mainstream politics and competitive elections will neutralize the separatist constituency”. In fact the BJP is desperate to reap the harvest of recent agitation on Amarnath land row in Jammu. This agitation saw strengthening and rise of rightwing political parties in at least four of the ten districts. The Shri Amarnath Yatra Sangharsh Samiti –which spearheaded agitation –has so far no plans of contesting elections and therefore the BJP expects a cakewalk on dozen odd constituencies if elections are held immediately as the agitated sentiments against Congress and Kashmir based parties are still fresh. The Election Commission after meeting political parties had series of consultations with security agencies, J&K state administration and the Union Home Ministry. A final meeting of Election Commission with Governor NN Vohra, who is keen to have an elected government in place at the earliest, is still pending. The UPA government is in a double whammy on the elections. If elections are held now and the poll percentage in Valley does not go beyond five percent this can be an embarrassment for India internationally. India has always defended the secessionist voices and the international support thereof by its elections results. Valley had polled 29 per cent in 2002 assembly elections which definitely boosted India's image. In 2002 byelections on three Valley constituencies in north Kashmir, the poll percentage was as high as 70 per cent – far and far above the national average. India had obviously wanted to see this trend repeated in 2008 elections, and there were definite chances for this, but the Amarnath land row has pushed
Epilogue Ø 7× October 2008
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Valley back to the wall. To ease situation in Kashmir, which literally back to early 1990s era, the UPA government and the state Governor NN Vohra's administration have recently took a slew of firefighting measures to ease sentiments and create a conducive situation for elections. The idea was to through the SrinagarMuzaffarabad route open for CrossLoC trade and to connect the Valley with Muslim dominated districts of Rajouri and Poonch via Mughal Road before Eid so as to address some amount of alienation. The Cross-LoC trade though has been decided to commence on October 21 but a possible fair weather drive on the Mughal Road is reported to have been snowed in may be till early next year when the snow melts. It is all a guess work about final timing of elections. While the elections in present scenario are fraught with the doubts of lacking legitimacy with a poor public participation, delaying the exercise may still be a bad advertisement for India at international level. Sources say that the Election Commission is likely to take a final call on schedule in first week of October. As per the revised electoral rolls, Jammu and Kashmir now 64,81,000 voters listed for the 2008 assembly elections. There were nearly 63 lakh registered voters when last assembly elections were held in 2002. According to Election Department, in the forthcoming assembly elections 4.48 lakh fresh voters will be casting their votes while 3.68 lakh of them are the new voters –attaining age of 18 after last elections –who will be casting first vote of their life.
DEVELOPMENT
Plan Model Being Re-Structured As ‘Discrimination’ Voices Get Shriller
F
ollowing Amarnath land row agitation and unprecedented regional 91.14 136.64 FYP8 Irrigation 112.79 210.05 FYP9 polarization 267.76 446.72 FYP10 between Kashmir 282.54 365.35 FYP11 and Jammu the 114.2 247.22 FYP8 Roads & Buildings voices of 29.38 403.67 FYP9 regional 730.93 751.03 FYP10 discrimination 1229.24 1229.24 FYP11 are getting 123.92 135.34 FYP8 Health shriller than 226.07 274.45 FYP9 ever. While this 330.32 390.25 FYP10 grouse has 510.81 819.22 FYP11 remained 15.21 34.39 FYP8 Tourism predominant in 34.99 58.01 FYP9 Jammu for all 47.17 109.85 FYP10 36.29 83.09 FYP11 sixty years –precisely since 2.92 6.81 FYP8 Sewerage 6.26 14.61 FYP9 the end of Dogra 30.61 71.42 FYP10 Maharaja's rule 11.54 35.67 FYP11 –of late harsher 20.37 45.53 FYP8 Drainage complaints from 27.84 64.96 FYP9 Kashmir have 32.31 75.41 FYP10 started pouring 67.75 109.61 FYP11 in. With both 19.38 45.23 FYP8 Housing & Urban Dev regions 39.87 93.02 FYP9 complaining 69.65 162.52 FYP10 against each 27.94 518.88 FYP11 other the task 516.75 775.12 FYP8 Power has become 56.94 85.41 FYP9 difficult for 1154 1731.43 FYP10 3278.78 4918.17 FYP11 planners and All figures in Rupees Crore, based on Five Year Plan Fundings researchers to actually reach at an objective opinion. In this backdrop, the Governor NN Vohra has proposed a pragmatic step to lay the foundations for balanced funding as India's Thirteenth Finance Commission has started working out the next Five Year Plan. Agriculture
JAMMU
KASHMIR
5761 147.31 270.49 337.56
104.5 253.17 380.29 519.41
FYP8 FYP9 FYP10 FYP11
J&K's coalition government in its last year in office had constituted as State Finance Commission with an objective to regional imbalances in funding
Epilogue Ø 8× October 2008
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pattern and propose suggestions for future development funding so that each region gets its due share. Vohra recently had a meeting with the Finance Commission –its chairman Mehmood-ur-Rehman and three members, one each drawn from Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh regions. The Governor observed that the recommendations on the fiscal devolution to civic bodies and other measures for strengthening the Local Self Governing bodies could go a long way in decentralization of the decision making process, a leading to qualitative improvement in governance. Rehman apprised the Governor about the Commission's visits and interactions in each of the districts of the State except two, which the Commission proposes to visit along with other remote and backward areas across the State. He said that the Commission had also extensively studied various Public Sector Corporations across in the State. The Commission was, in particular, looking into the issues pertaining to corporate governance, with the objective of restructuring of these institutions of vital public importance. Rehman said that the Commission was mapping the regions and sub-regions with reference to well accepted development indicators for identifying the backlog of development in backward areas and suggest strategies for short-term and long-term correction. He said that the Commission was also identifying measures to bring about a paradigm shift in the approach for inter-se allocation of resources by treating each region and sub-region within the region as a targeted economic unit. The Chairman said that the Commission was also reviewing the state of finances and suggesting restructuring of the public finances, restoring budgetary balance, achieving macro-economic stability and debt reduction. He said that the Commission would be suggesting measures needed to augment the resources of the State Government, particularly to supplement resources of Halqa Panchayats, Municipalities and Municipal Corporations. Meanwhile, a senior BJP leader, Prof Hari Om seems to have put in a lot of effort in pointing out that “Kashmiri political elite” alone is not be blamed for the alleged regional discrimination against Jammu is New Delhi is an “equal culprit”. Hari Om has complied the sector-wise funding details of last four Five Year Plans which clearly show a lopsided funding, if the figures are genuine as Hari Om claims. (See table)
ECONOMIC LOSSES
Agitation Reportedly Cost Economy Over Rs 30,000 Crores
I
t has not been heard anywhere in India, but Jammu and Kashmir is on the way to set a precedence. Voluntary shut downs as part of agitations is always considered as voluntary and not forced; therefore government compensation in such cases is something unheard of. The Shri Amarnath Yatra Sangharsh Samiti (SAYSS), which spearheaded two-month long agitation in Jammu on Amarnath shrine land row, put a specific condition before the government for calling off agitation. Besides restoration of the controversial piece of 800 kanals of forest land to the shrine board, the Samiti put 12 other conditions before the government which included compensation to all sectors of economy which suffered losses during agitation. Cornered at all fronts, the government was quick to agree. Though the demand was specific for Jammu region alone but in its balancing act, the Government decided to extend this benefit to Kashmir Valley's units of economy as well. The Governor's administration has now constituted a Working Group under the Chief Secretary to examine cases of losses and work out the compensation package. The Working Group has to complete the exercise in two months (before October end). The cash starved J&K Government will be forwarding the case to Central Government for financial assistance. Though an exact and authentic tabulation of losses is yet to be made, but representative bodies of trade, commerce and industries in Jammu have said that losses run beyond Rs 10,000 Crores. Ram Sahai, President of Chamber of Commerce and Industries have said that the losses mount to over Rs 9600 Crores. Some other sections not covered by the CCI have also been reporting losses in hundreds of crores of rupees. The Kashmir Chamber of Commerce and Industry has reported losses to the tune of Rs 25,000 Crores. Now it has to be seen as how government works out this more than Rs 30,000 Crore compensation package.
Epilogue Ø 9× October 2008
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MILITANCY
Gun Relatively Silent In Valley, Jammu Returns To Late 1990’s era
K
ashmir Valley has definitely returned to its early-1990s era of separatist upsurge but there is one remarkable difference –the gun discourse is missing. However, traveling south of Pir Panchal, in Jammu region the scene is being reset to the mid and late 1990s with a visible presence of the gun. Ever since Kashmir Valley re-erupted June this year with the dominant Azadi discourse, what has lend credence to the voices and added to the worries of New Delhi is the fact that all is not being done on the gun point. In early years of 1990s when the slogan shouting Valley residents stayed more on streets than their houses, the popular perception was all that being done under the shadow of gun. That may have been largely those times, but this time around gun has been carefully kept away from the scene to send a message of popular uprising and not the militancy. Surprisingly, militancy is on its revision course in Jammu province where sporadic incidents of violence and infiltration are on an alarming rise. Intelligence reports have that some 800 ultras are waiting on the other side of International Border and Line of Control along Jammu region to cross over at an opportune time. Such “opportune times” are now happening much frequently and that too under the fire cover provided by Pakistani Rangers or Army. While the Winter Capital City is reeling under a constant terror fear since ultras sneaked in on August 25 and took a family hostage before being killed in a 19-hour long gun battle, the fear
POWER
450 MW Baglihar Project Ready To Change J&K’s Destiny
A
fter surviving prolonged diplomatic rows, geographical hurdles and bureaucratic red-tapism, J&K's most ambitious power project, so far, the 450 MW Baglihar hydro-electric power project is all set for commercial generation by middle of October. Test run on three turbines of 150 MW has been performed successfully. On Baglihar, India had fought a long row with Pakistan under the Indus Water Treaty. It
Epilogue Ø 10 × October 2008
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factor is also looming large in the countryside and the border melting hot with activity. Having enjoyed few years of security and peace in their home and hearths since November 2003 ceasefire, the border residents along five districts in Jammu region are again a worried lot. Since November 2003 ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan, life had limped back to normalcy along the International Border and the Line of Control and people had resumed their usual farm activity which was on doldrums after the Kargil conflict of 1999. However, since past few months a deep sense of insecurity is prevailing among the residents of border areas as cases of firing and infiltration have picked up drastically and some times getting more frequent than the pre-ceasefire times. Reports from across the region have been pouring in on the presence of militants. It was around two to three months back when people in the border districts of Rajouri and Poonch started reporting huge presence of militants in the interiors and now a similar situation is being reported from the areas along IB, in Jammu, Samba and Kathua districts. Between April and August this year, there have been at least 29 instances when Pakistani troops violated the truce with India and fired at Indian posts along the Line of Control (LoC) to provide covering fire to militants. One incident was reported in April, two in May and seven in June. The figure rose to 10 in July, while at least nine violations took place in August. About 150 intruders had managed to cross over to the Indian side since January, sources said. 'The recent firing along the LoC is mainly an attempt of infiltration by militants and the armed forces are keeping a vigil. By and large, we have been able to defeat the attempts of militants. The coming few months are crucial and we have to be more alert and the armed forces have been asked to be more vigilant,' Defence Minister AK Antony said on September 5 in New Delhi. Infiltration into Jammu and Kashmir normally begins at the end of March when the snows in the Himalayan ranges melt and the passes become accessible. Between March and July, the Indian Army says, there have been over 130 infiltration bids, of which about 20 succeeded.
was in February last year that a World Bank commissioned expert panel headed by Raymond Liffete cleared the project of all objection with some suggestions of slight design change including reduction in height of the dam to 143 meters from the then height of 145 meters . On July 31 this year, a three-member team from Pakistan led by Central Water Commission (Indus Water Treaty) Commissioner Syed Jamait Ali Shah had visited Baglihar project and had given a clean chit to the project in its report, after complete inspections. The project was started in 1999 and is almost complete after much delay due to dispute raised by Pakistan and changes undertaken in design. The project, constructed by Jaypee Indistrues, was initially slated to be completed at a cost of Rs 4000 crores by June 2006 but due to unprecedented floods in mid 2005, the project received a severe set back, as its tunnels got severely damaged. The natural calamity resulted in time and cost over run in the project with the project cost rising from Rs 4000 crores to Rs 5200 crores. This is first major state-owned power project in Jammu and Kashmir and its commissioning is going to be a major milestone in economic development of the state. All other
major functional projects like Dul Hasti are in the Center sector owned and operated by the National Hydroelectric Power Corporation in which Jammu and Kashmir gets only 12 per cent royalty share of the total production. There are more than 25 power projects –both in State and Central sectors –harnessing a potential of around 1500 MWs. Some of the projects are operational while others are into various stages of completion. The peak hour electricity requirement in Jammu and Kashmir around 2040 MWs but the total production in state sector has so far been only 311 MWs. After resorting to scheduled power curtailments, the minimum supply is managed by around 950 MWs –procured from royalty out of Central Sector projects, Power Trading Corporation of India and other sources. This supply too falls to around 650 MWs in peak summers as well as in peak winters due to drop in river discharge and transmission and distribution losses. With generation of 450 MWs of power at Baglihar power project the total electricity production in the State Sector will go upwards 800 MWs. This will not only push the economic growth of state but will also bring down the huge expenditure on electricity procurement.
Epilogue Ø 11 × October 2008
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RAILWAYS
Suspense, elusion over Kashmir’s ‘Rail-Line Integration’ With India
A
n aesthetic and comfort marvel of Indian Railways, the Kashmir Valley is all set to have one of the most beautiful and comfortable trains of country chugging between its northern most part –Baramulla and the southern most township of Qazigund. However, the dream of integrating Kashmir with rest of India by train is getting elusive by the day even as authorities are making a discreet silence on imminent delay on the project. Rail link within and to Kashmir Valley has two phases –one which connects Valley within and the other connects Valley with rest of country. Valley's internal rail line is a 199 Kilometer track between Qazigund and Baramulla. The
Upon its commissioning the Qazigund-Baramulla track would would generate direct employment for 3900 persons in the Valley, in addition to indirect employment. The Railways is also processing 400 cases for providing employment to one person in each of the land loser families, those which have given to the Railways more than 75 per cent of their holdings, in Kashmir. Appointment letters have been issued to 120 candidates so far, who are undergoing training in different parts of the country. construction work on this section having 800 bridges is 95 per cent complete and Rs 2200 Crores out of the estimated prost cost of Rs 2400 Crores have already been spent. An airconditioned, eight coach diesel multiple unit with push back seats will chug on this track which has 15 stations on the way with the central Srinagar-Nowgam station being architecturally and aesthetically, the most beautiful station in the Indian Railways. However, the line linking Kashmir with rest of the country –the 148 kilometer Katra-Qazigund track –is appearing to be an elusive project yet. The special feature of this section is that 80 per cent of the 148 kilometer track will be covered by tunnels and 12 per cent by bridges, thus leaving only 8 per cent open. This section was supposed to have world's third highest railway bridge but recent reports of change in alignment have
The railway project in the State comprises three sections- Udhampur-Katra, Katra-Qazigund and Qazigund-Baramulla, taken up at a cumulative cost of Rs 11000 crores. For the current financial year, Rs 1000 crores have been earmarked. sparked off doubts which the authorities are yet to clarify. As a part of Jammu-Udhampur-Baramulla rail link the world's third highest railway bridge was coming up over River Chenab in village Kauri in the newly created Reasi district. After spending more than Rs 100 Crores and risking the claims of an international construction consortium running beyond Rs 200 Crores, the government is reported to have cancelled the project after belatedly learning about its unfeasibility. After global tendering the Konkan Railways had in 2004 allotted the construction work of this project to UltraAfcons-VSL, an international construction consortium. The bridge on river Chenab was supposed to have a total length of 1320 metres, the single longest arch span of 480 metres and the height from the bed level to the rail level of 359 metres –highest anywhere in the world. At an estimated cost of Rs 500 Crores, the Kauri bridge was to be completed in a period of 30 months which, however, had elapsed early last year. The construction work on the bridge had picked up only earlier this year but now the report has come about cancellation of the project. In a letter dated September 4, the railway board announced "all existing contracts" with Konkan Railway Corporation Limited (KRCL) for a 34-km stretch of the railway link between Jammu and Kashmir, which includes the construction of the Chenab mega arch bridge, have been
Railways were constructing 270 kilometers of access roads, at the cost of the Railways, to carry machinery and equipment to the Project sites. After the completion of the Project, these roads would connect 60 villages and will be of immense use for the locals of the concerned areas.
Epilogue Ø 12 × October 2008
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Governor Vohra on Kashmir train ride
The construction work on this section having 800 bridges is 95 per cent complete and Rs 2200 Crores out of the estimated prost cost of Rs 2400 Crores have already been spent. An air-conditioned, eight coach diesel multiple unit with push back seats will chug on this track which has 15 stations on the way with the central Srinagar-Nowgam station being architecturally and aesthetically, the most beautiful station in the Indian Railways. The special feature of Katra-Qazigund section is that 80 per cent of the 148 kilometer track will be covered by tunnels and 12 per cent by bridges, thus leaving only 8 per cent open. "short closed" (meaning, terminated before completion of work).? As a corollary, the board's decision puts a stop to the subcontract signed by KRCL in 2004 with the international consortium, Ultra-Afcons-VSL, to design and build the Chenab bridge within 30 months. Though the stipulated period for the execution of the project lapsed last year, the consortium is yet to build even the foundation in the mountain slope on either side of the river as Northern Railways, in view of the treacherous geological conditions, could not clear any of its plans for the bridge.? In a tacit reference to the claims of Rs 300 crore submitted by the consortium for the manpower and machinery idling at the site, the board said, "A proper record of material, unfinished work abandoned at the site shall be kept for examining legitimate claims."? The decision to scrap the bridge was taken by the board's member (engineering) S K Vij as a sequel to an order passed by him on July 14 suspending all works on the existing
alignment of the entire 125 km track between Katra and Banihal skirting the mountains at altitudes ranging from 800 to 1,700 metres. This has sparked off doubts as authorities are not officially clarifying the proposed change in alignment. The only word which we have about the impact of this design change is from a meeting which J&K Governor NN Vohra had with the official of Northern Railways in New Delhi on September 16. Briefing about the meeting, an official spokesman of J&K government said that despite change in alignment on Jammu side of the Udhampur-Katra-Qazigund rail line, the Northern Railway has assured Governor NN Vohra that the completion of the railway link will not be delayed beyond the stipulated time. “Allaying the apprehensions about the change in the alignment on the Jammu side of the track, the General Manager assured that the work on this track will be speeded up to facilitate the early completion of the Project”, said the spokesman.
Epilogue Ø 13 × October 2008
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INFRASTRUCTURE
SURVEY REPORT
Major Projects Surpassing Deadlines By Years
J&K Lok Sabha Constituencies Doing Better Than Many In India
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ith majority of the centrally funded a m b i t i o u s infrastructure projects in J&K running appallingly behind schedule, a Parliamentary Panel has suggested a funding mechanism for this state where money is not considered lapsed at the end of financial year. Currently, most of the funds earmarked for the states are getting lapsed as harsh climatic conditions don't allow works at a steady pace. The panel also expressed concern that the Planning Commission and the Finance Ministry reduces the plan outlay for Jammu Kashmir projects due to non-completion of works. Of the works running behind schedule are some of the major projects funded under Prime Minister's Special Infrastructure Package. Under the reconstruction plan made in 2004, seven road projects were taken up. None of it has met the deadline. Construction of Mughal road between Pulwama district in Kashmir valley and Poonch and Rajouri of Jammu was scheduled to be over in March 2007 but now a new deadline of April 2010 has been set. Out of the Rs 639.85 crore of fund alloted to the project, only Rs 162.35 crore had been spent till this April. Similarly, widening of DomelKatra road by Border Road Organization (BRO) has missed the deadline of March 2007 and out of the total fund allotment, only 61per cent has been spent.
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ammu and Kashmir is though not able to compete most of other states in important parameters of development but its Lok Sabha constituencies are doing quite good. India Today's latest survey of best and worst constituencies of India has put J&K's Lok Sabha segments in a class of their own. As the trend has it, the constituencies with large urban base have faired well than those spread over hilly and rural areas. What makes the state proud is that in an indexing of 543 Lok Sabha constituencies, its best is placed at rank 208 and worst at 367 while Bihar makes an entry at 330 and Uttar Pradesh has 29 of the 100 worst constituencies. The Srinagar-Badgam Lok Sabha presently represented by National Conference president Omar Abdullah segment has been placed at 208 rank in terms of performance on socioeconomic sector and at 279th in terms of infrastructure development. Omar's arch rival and another young leader Mehbooba Mufti constituency –Anantnag-Pulwama -finishes poor at the second last rank among six constituencies in the state. Congress MP Chowdhary Lal Singh's constituency of Kathua-Udhampur-Doda has been Constituency
MP
Srinagar-Budgam
Omar Abdullah
Socio-Eco Index 208
Infrastructure 279
Jammu-Kashmi
Madan Lal
260
247
Ladakh
Thupstan Chewang
264
184
Baramulla-Kupwara
A.R. Shaheen
277
205
Anantnag-Pulwama
Mehbooba Mufti
296
308
Udhampur-Doda
Lal Singh
363
357
placed at the poor last rank in the state but he does not have to worry about it. After all, Lal Singh's performance, though poor as per the survey finding, is at least 50 points better than that of Congress president Sonia Gandhi's Rae Bariely constituency and General Secretary Rahul Gandhi's Amethi constituency. “Nothing quite compares with the eloquence of numbers. By definition India is a mosaic of cultures, geographies and economies. And nothing symbolises this better than the rankings of the Lok Sabha constituencies”, says the India Today magazine's survey of India's best and worst constituencies. The Jammu-Rajouri-Poonch Lok Sabha constituency represented by Madan Lal of Congress has ranked at number in the state. Out of all LS seats in India, Madan's constituency is at rank 260 in terms of socio-economic development and 247 in terms of infrastructure access. The Congress MP has reason to feel happy and elated. “I have put in all my efforts to repay to my electors the faith they reposed in me”, says Madan. Among his major achievements, he counts over half a dozen colleges and double laning of Jalandhar-Jammu rail line. Ladakh constituency represented by Thupstan Chhewang of Ladakh Union Territory Front is ranked at number three in the state and at all India level it is at rank 264 in terms of socio-economic development and 184 in terms of access to infrastructure. The Baramulla-Kupwara constituency represented by Abdul Rashid Shaheen of National Conference is at 277 rank in terms of socio-economic development and 205 in access to
Epilogue Ø 14 × October 2008
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infrastructure. Peoples Democratic Party president Mehbooba Mufti's constituency of Anantnag-Pulwama is the second worst performer at 296 rank in terms of socio-economic development and 308 in access to infrastructure. Chowdhary Lal Singh of Congress doubts the indexing methodology as his constituency finishes last -363 in terms of socio-economic development and 357 in terms of infrastructure access. Lal Singh has a reason to protest. The indexing is not the basis of performance an individual MP may have registered during the present term. The parameters also include what he inherited from his predecessors. “I have got more than 400 projects completed so far in the areas of my constituency and am sure of meeting the 800 target before end of my term”, Lal Singh said. He further said, “in Omar Abdullah's constituency only 90 projects have been taken so far. “Uttar Pradesh, which sends 80 MPs to Parliament and has been home to eight prime ministers, makes an entry at number 212 with Kanpur, thanks to the dividend of legacy the commercial city delivers”, says the India Today survey. “The real shocker is that Bihar boasts of 32 of the worst 100 constituencies while Uttar Pradesh is home to 29 to the bottom of the pile. Curiously the listing reads virtually like the first list of 100 worst districts classified by the Patel Committee in 1964. It is as if time has stood still”. Phulpur and Allahabad, represented by Jawaharlal Nehru, who was prime minister for 17 years, rank 409 out of 543 on the socioeconomic index. Lucknow, which elected Atal Bihari Vajpayee, is placed at 269. Ballia, which elected Chandra Shekhar (and now his son), ranks 388 and Chaudhary Charan Singh's Baghpat is 362. Amethi which has elected members of the Gandhi familySanjay Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi (twice), Sonia Gandhi and now Rahul Gandhi-five times out of 10 polls. It ranks 484 on the socio-economic index and 475 on the infrastructure ranking. Nehru-Gandhi home turf of Amethi, presently represented by Rahul Gandhi ranks at 484 while Rae Bareily constituency is at 507 rank in terms of socio-economic index. The survey report concludes, “unless public representatives realise that the huge monster called government is made to deliver, they will be haunted by anti-incumbency and their voters by poor governance. These ratings simply reflect the distance between the need of the voting class and a slothful system”.
INDUSTRIAL INVESTMENT
Loosing Ground To Neighbouring Himachal Pradesh
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or past few years, the Central and State government have laying huge thrust on attracting investment in Jammu and Kashmir. This included a multi-pronged strategy mainly focusing on positive images building, allaying fears of militancy, creating industry infrastructure and easing the land acquisition norms. However, nothing seems to have worked well as investors are not keen. Many have run away after swindling huge subsidies and concessions while others are not enthusiastic in making investments. In the recent 'State of States' survey report of India Today, Jammu and Kashmir has emerged at poor 16th rank. While there is no remarkable achievement on any parameter of growth, Jammu and Kashmir appears to have suffered a massive damage to its projected investment friendly environment. Among 20 big states in country Jammu and Kashmir ranks at 16 in attracting investors. What is more worrying is the fact that this ranking has been on a constant decline for last four years. At least two Chief Ministers –Mufti Mohammad Sayeed and his successor Ghulam Nabi Azad –always claimed that they mobilized huge investment for the state. However, a credible survey points to the contrary. The survey says that Jammu and Kashmir ranked at number nine in terms of its investment friendly environment in 2004 which declined to number 10 in 2005, number 12 in 2006, number 14 in 2007 and number 16 in 2008. This clearly points out that India's industry barons are least interested in investing in Jammu and Kashmir. This had already been pointed by Prime Minister's Task Force on Jammu and Kashmir's Economic Reconstruction which submitted its report in December 2006. The Task Force headed by former Reserve Bank of India Governor R Rangarajan had said that besides unreliable security environment, the cumbersome land acquiring process and complex taxation regime keeps the investors away from Jammu and Kashmir. Himachal Pradesh, though a hilly state almost like Jammu and Kashmir, has emerged as number one state in the country in terms of attracting investment. This first rank in attracting investment had earlier been held by Gujarat consecutively for last three years. The latest “State of the States Survey” conducted by country's leading current affairs magazine has put Jammu and Kashmir at eleventh rank among the 20 big states of the country. Punjab still maintains its Numero Uno position in the list while Tamil Nadu has gone up to number two and Himachal Pradesh is at number three. As usual Bihar is at the last rank. India Today's annual “State of the States” survey, as it is well known, is considered not less than the reports of Planning
Epilogue Ø 15 × October 2008
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enjoyed fourth rank in primary health sector in 2004 but declined to Commission. The survey conducted by leading Economists Bibek number but it declined to number seven in 2006 and 2007. Debroy and Laveesh Bhandari examines three categories –Big States, Small States and Union Territories. There are 20 States in Remarkable improvement has also been noticed in primary the category of Bog States and Jammu and Kashmir comes at eleventh rank. Jammu & Kashmir 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 Jammu and Kashmir is maintaining this " ! Overall Ranking 11 11 11 10 10 eleventh rank, well below halfway, " ! Agriculture 16 16 15 15 15 consecutively for last two years though 04 07 07 05 04 its performance has declined in many # Primary Health $ Investment Environment 16 14 12 10 09 crucial sectors of economic growth and ! Primary Education 08 08 10 08 07 general environment. In the same " survey, J&K ranked at tenth place in # Infrastructure 10 11 11 08 10 2005 and 2006 which declined to # Macro Economy 06 07 06 07 07 eleven in 2007. Agriculture is regarded " ! Consumer Markets 08 08 08 08 07 as backbone of Jammu and Kashmir's $ Law & Order 16 15 17 17 12 economy but there is no remarkable Excerpted from India Today Survey growth in this sector. For straight second year, the state is at 16th rank education where Jammu and Kashmir once stood at number among 20 states. Position was slightly better between 2004 and seven in 2004 and declined to eight in 2005, number 10 in 2006 2006 when state ranked at number 15. This year's survey has put and number eight in 2007. This year again state has been ranked Madhya Pradesh at number one and Punjab at number two. The at number eight. There is also a decline for the worst in law and worst performing state in Agriculture sector is Gujarat. order sector. In this sector, the state has registered a decline of The primary health sector, however, appears to be only hope for one rank from 15 to 16. Between 2004 and 2004, J&K ranked image of Jammu and Kashmir. The state has ranked at number four continuously at number 17 when it improved to 15 in 2007. This among 20 states while Tamil Nadu is the best and Bihar still remains year there is a decline by one point. the worst. It may be mentioned here that Jammu and Kashmir
BUSINESS & ECONOMY
State Gets Steel Plant, Rs One Billion More Investment On The Way
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n a major boost to state's economy and industrial growth, Kashmir Valley has got its first steel plant. Union Steel Minister Ram Vilas Paswan on September 22 laid the foundation of the first steel-processing plant in the industry-starved Kashmir Valley which will give employment to around 4,500 people. The plant in Lassipora industrial growth centre in south Kashmir Pulwama district will have an annual capacity of 160,000 tonnes and will become operational in 2010. Paswan said the capacity of the steelprocessing plant would be expanded after it becomes operational in January 2010. Complimenting the central government and the union steel ministry for setting up the unit in the valley, Governor N.N. Vohra said the plant would help to meet the steel demand of the valley besides assuring employment to a good number of people. Paswan announced that the initial cost of Rs.900 million of the upcoming unit would be enhanced to Rs.1.5 billion to ensure fullfledged facilities in the unit. Earlier on September 8, the government's Apex Clearance Committee (APCC) for industrial investments cleared 23 industrial projects in medium and large sectors with an estimated investment of Rs One Billion which also included the Lassipora steel plant. Among others Shri Cements projects was also approved with an investment of Rs 164 crore. The project will have a potential for creation of many ancillary units. The other projects cleared are for manufacturing of high precision auto components, terri-towels, cement, hi-tech batteries, LT/HT wire cables, steel products, paints, DG sheets, electric motors and steel pipes etc. The total investment to be mobilized on setting up of the 23 projects cleared by the committee will be to the tune of Rs 1002 crore and direct employment to be created in these units will be about 5500 persons. The Chief Secretary directed for proper zoning of new industrial estates keeping in view various industrial activities, pollution norms and other related factors so that requisite pollution control measures like setting up of Common Effluent Treatment Plants could be designed and set up in the states.
Epilogue Ø 16 × October 2008
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Beginning Of A New Chapter
Zafar Choudhary More than 61 years since the last truck load of goods moved on either side of Kashmir Valley's main trade highway to the world, a new is era to set to begin in 2008 –an historical epoch indeed. Nearly three weeks after Pakistan's new President Asif Ali Zardari promised India some good news (immediately after his swearing in), the trans-LoC trade between two parts of Jammu and Kashmir has been agreed upon. Trucks will roll down on 130 kilometer long Srinagar-Muzaffarabad road on October 21 and on 47 kilometer long Poonch-Rawalakote road on October 28. Seen in the context of Indo-Pak peace process, the trans-LoC trade can well be described as the Biggest Confidence Building Measure so far.
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here was an overwhelming response in Jammu and Kashmir on September 25, barring few voices of obvious reservation, when Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh and President Zardari made announcement of trans-LoC trade from New York where both leaders were visiting to attend 63rd United Nations General Assembly session. Congress, Peoples Democratic Party, National Conference, CPI(M) and a wide majority of separatists welcomed the move and most of them described this as realization of urges and aspirations of the people of Kashmir. Hardliner Syed Ali Shah Geelani's was the lone voice to underplay the move. “Opening for trade the routes which already have restricted movement for people is a non-issue for us…we are fighting for a larger cause”, said Geelani. In Jammu, the BJP saw trade agreement as an act of treason. “1994 Parliament resolution holds Pakistan occupied Kashmir as a part of India…this agreement (on trans-LoC trade) amounts to giving up claim on our territory and accepting LoC as International Border”, said BJP's Jammu unit president Ashok Khajuria.
Almost all arrangements for trade on both routes have been put in place. On September 6, a team of Union Ministries of Finance, External Affairs and Home along with top officers of J&K government visited the LoC crossing point at Kaman and custom station at Salamabad in Uri district to review preparations. Work on roads, buildings and other infrastructure facility was by that time 95 per cent complete. However, there is slow pace of work and lesser enthusiasm on the PoonchRawalakote trade link. Neither full facilities have come up there nor is there much awareness about what is going to happen. Since the SrinagarMuzaffarabad link earns a lot of publicity and the Valley being major producer of commodities to be traded, the level of involvement in Kashmir is far higher than anywhere else in the state. Poonch does not have any well organized trade lobby and the Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Jammu as well as their Srinagar counterparts are not seen taking any interest in PoonchRawalakote route. However, it is interesting to note that this route, which was opened to passengers in 2006, is easiest and closet link between
Epilogue Ø 17 × October 2008
63 per cent of the divided families on both sides of Jammu and Kashmir. Traders in Poonch and its adjoining district of Rajouri are grasping for a minimum knowledge about their stake in the whole affair. Trade between two divided parts of Jammu and Kashmir has a different meaning for different people. For peaceniks it is an initiative which enhances the people-to-people contacts between both sides, brings down the walls of mistrust, ensures a greater level of cooperation and eventually strengthens the urge for peace. For traders, particularly on this side of divide, it is a biggest opportunity of economic growth and reaching to the international markets. For Kashmiri's it is an end to the perceived psychological suffocation as for them Jawahar tunnel has been only opening to the world since division of state. In a larger perspective the trans-LoC trade eventually emerges as a move of economic integration between India and Pakistan with Jammu and Kashmir as a bridge. Being a traditional bone of contention between two nuclear armed neighours, Kashmir becoming a bridge of cooperation can
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ultimately pay way for resolution of issue which has been hanging fire for 60 years. Huge potential The initial list of commodities to be exchanged between both parts of Jammu and Kashmir appears more symbolic in nature but in next couple of years these trade links are set to change economic profile of the region. Kashmir's apple industry alone is worth Rs 2500 Crores and with a little boost it can touch Rs 5000 Crore mark in next few years. “Right now our apples are worth Rs 2500 Crore but if proper technology is applied we can produce five times higher than this figure –Rs 12500 Crores in next few years”, says Shakeel Qalander, President Federation Chamber of Industries, Kashmir. “It is all about efficient logistics”, says Dr Mubeen Shah, the President of Kashmir C h a m b e r o f Commerce and Industry. With the
It’s Beyond CBM. Kashmir Always Needed An Alternate Trade Route Interview Mubeen Shah, President, Kashmir Chamber of Commerce and Industries
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ver since the talk of trans-LoC trade began few years back this has been described as mother of all Confidence Buildings Measures. Now trucks are all set to move across LoC. How do you look at the situation?
Trans-LoC trade was most important thing to happen to Kashmir and we are happy that this has been agreed upon. But I don't think this need to be linked with the Confidence Building Measures. Now this is a reality and necessity and not just symbolism that we should have trade relations with Pakistan administered Kashmir and beyond. Could you please explain this? See there are two major factors for which Kashmir should have trade ties with Pakistan administered Kashmir. One is natural and permanent and other is recent creation of communal forces. Kashmir has only surface link with world (Jammu-Srinagar National Highway) which is not fully dependable due to weather vagaries. The highway remains closed for weeks together due to snowfall and landslides resulting into severe shortage of commodities in the Valley, particularly during winter months and rainy season. Therefore, an alternate trade route is the necessity to maintain the basic minimum supply lines. Another reason for alternate trade route, preferably linking Pakistan administered Kashmir was felt strongly when some communal forces in Jammu forced economic blockade of Valley to the extent that we even ran short of baby milk powders and life saving drugs. After having faced such hostility now we can't depend on the traditional trade route. You never know how many times they force economic blockade of Kashmir. But these charges of economic blockade have been severely denied in Jammu. Moreover during agitations, shutdowns and curfews supplies normally get affected. If there was no economic blockade we were not the fools to lead a march to Muzaffarabad. Our fruits and farm produce worth crores of rupees were allowed to rot in the mandis. People in several areas did not have anything to eat for several days. For weeks Valley ran empty of even most basic and essential commodities. Life saving drugs had to be procured directly from New Delhi by air as truckers were being attacked on the National Highway. Come here and meet the truckers who survived lethal attacks of communal hooligans. If there was no economic blockade then why the government had to hand over the National Highway to Army to make some movement of trucks to Kashmir. We have been deeply hurt particularly by the action of those people who had business dealing with us. Now since the situation in Jammu has ebbed, is there full resumption of economic
Epilogue Ø 18 × October 2008
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supplies and also the restoration of business dealings with traders in Jammu? No. We are no more interested in dealing with Jammu based traders…they have betrayed our trust. In fact we have decided to resume the trade patterns of pre-1990s. What is this pre-1990 trade pattern? Before eruption of disturbance in Kashmir in 1990 we had direct trade ties with producers, suppliers and wholesalers in different parts of country, particularly Amritsar, Ludhiana and New Delhi. They had their C&F (Clearance and Forwarding) offices in Srinagar which were shut down by the onset of disturbance. We have requested them to revive that system. Meanwhile, we have started procurements from different parts of country bypassing Jammu. This has been made clear to the traders in Jammu. And I must make this clear here that this is not an individual decision. This is a decision of the people of entire Kashmir Valley who have refused to pick up commodities supplied from Jammu. Why you people protested allotment of land to Amarnath shrine? Afterall that was a turning point in widening of gulf between Kashmir and Jammu. I am sorry to say but the media has a poor knowledge of this whole issue. All newspapers and channels have sought to link the controversy on several patterns ranging from secessionism to communalism. You people speak to separatist and mainstream leaders and the religious extremist. And the politicians base their opinions on your reportage which lack depth. Why no one has bothered to address the issue of ecology and economy. I have high
hopes and expectations that Epilogue does justice to the issue. First of all the resistance to the land allotment was on the basis of ecological dangers. The land around Amarnath shrine is home to glaciers. Increased human activity there would have a direct bearing on our two rivers –Jehlum and Lidder. Long term dangerous effects are not only in Kashmir but across the country as the rivers are sustained by glaciers. We had opposed construction of structures which was given a communal rebuttal by the Shrine Board authorities. Second most important aspect is of economy. You have two shrine boards in Jammu and Kashmir –Mata Vaishno Devi Shrine Board and Shri Amarnath Shrine Board –both headed by the Governor. The management of Shrine Boards has different yard sticks for both pilgrimages. There are three essential facilities required to be offered to the pilgrims –food, accommodation and transport. In case of the Vaishno Devi pilgrimage (in Jammu) the Shrine Board has left it to the local businessmen to offer all these three facilities to the pilgrims. However, in case of Amarnath pilgrimage (in Kashmir) the Shrine Board wants to handle everything itself. Protesters in Jammu demanded full management of Amarnath pilgrimage by the Shrine Board (which has always been an exclusive affair of Board) but why don't they ask the same thing for Vaishno Devi pilgrimage? Is this something media can't understand? Look at the blatant discrimination unleashed by the Shrine Board. In Pahalgam our hotels can offer a monthly occupancy of 250,000 beds but the Shrine Board does not allow pilgrims to stay in hotels. They create separate camps for them and then demand land allotment for creating
Epilogue Ø 19 × October 2008
permanent structures. How do you explain this? The then Chief Executive Officer of the Shrine Board is on record having said that a dam will be constructed and exclusively owned by the Board for power generation. Don't you see this tendency of creating a “State within State”. Just imagine what happens when they talk of taking over our tourist spots of Pahalgam and Gulmarg. We protested against these basis biases but were unfortunately labeled as communalists and secessionists. Well let's come back to the trans-LoC trade. What is the quantum of trade you see happening between both parts of Kashmir. Who gets the maximum benefit –this Kashmir or that? As I already said this is not going to be a symbolic trade. We are gearing up for business in real terms. The quantum of trade as it appears on the list is not much but this has to go up with the passage of time. This side of Kashmir stands to benefit most from the trans-LoC trade for very simple reasons of efficient logistics. Besides handicrafts, what we sell most is fruits and vegetables which are perishable goods. It takes 36 hours for our trucks to reach New Delhi while Islamabad is just 8 hours away. Once we are in Islamabad, our good are in the international market. We have signed a memorandum of understanding with the traders in Dubai and they will get in touch with the Pakistan Foreign Ministry for procuring goods from Islamabad. Other side of Kashmir too enjoy benefits of economic spin offs. Our apple produce alone is worth Rs 2500 Crores. Just see if this traded through Muzaffarabad commissions can make a huge difference.
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opening of Jehlum Valley road, transportation cost and time, particularly for perishable commodities will be reduced drastically. Normally a truck takes 36 to 40 hours from Srinagar to markets in New Delhi and much longer to other markets. Islamabad is just 6 to 8 hours away from Kashmir besides this road being all weather and dependable. The Kashmiri traders besides saving on transportation are looking at wider international markets beyond Muzaffarabad and Islamabad. “We have spoken to people in Dubai and other countries to trade with us via Pakistan”, says Shah.
government's finance wizards both in New Delhi and Islamabad to give a slow start to the process so that the whole gamut could be understood. Pakistan administered Kashmir traders are reportedly less enthusiastic in the LoC trade as they expect a clear dominance of their Indian counterparts in the coming years. “they don't have much to sell here which is why they have been dragging feet for last two years”, says Ram Sahai, the President of Jammu Chamber of Commerce and Industry commenting on delay in arrival of a delegation of Muzaffarabad Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
Estimates suggest that in next few years, the trans-LoC trade could touch anything upwards One Billion US Dollars. It is the enormously high potential of trade which has made
The trade and commerce bodies in Jammu are not too overwhelmed. In the initial list of commodities to be exchanged, Basmati rice and Rajmash are the only items Jammu produces in
plenty. “Though fruit is also produced in Jammu region, particularly Bhaderwah but this is nothing to be called as trade…this is mere symbolic”, says Sahai. “We have forwarded a list of 20 items to the Government and would push for their inclusion”, he says. A delegation of Pakistan administered Kashmir Chamber of Commerce and Industry is likely to arrive in J&K by middle of October when both sides sit down to work out the modalities. Trust deficit There is indeed a quite unpleasant scenario prevailing in Jammu and Kashmir. Trade between two parts of Kashmir is being initiated at a time when the Kashmiri traders are snapping their ties with their Jammu counterparts. Ever since the trans-LoC
‘MARCH TO MUZAFFARABAD’ : Jehlum Valley Road, August 11
Epilogue Ø 20 × October 2008
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trade was first agreed upon 'in principle' between New Delhi and Islamabad in May 2006, the trade and commerce lobbies both in Kashmir and Jammu had been working in tandem to see this happening. Now when the trans-LoC trade has become reality, the Kashmiri and Jammu based traders are not seeing each other eye to eye. Kashmiri traders accuse their Jammu counterparts of siding up with the alleged communal forces in past two months to force, what they say, 'economic blockade' of the Valley. “We have lost trust in Jammu traders and would never like to deal with them again”, says Mubeen Shah. His Jammu counterpart Ram Sahai refutes the allegations. Sahai, who was part of the Shri Amarnath Yatra Sangharsh Samiti, spearheading two-month long agitation on Amarnath land row, says, “there was never any organized blockade”. Describing allegations as far from truth, he says, “disruption of supplies is natural during shut downs and curfews”. Jammu and Kashmir has an annual trade volume of around Rs 52,000 Crores and out this around Rs 30,000 Crore exchange is between Kashmir and Jammu. If the ongoing boycott by Kashmiri traders continue, Jammu's trade economy is likely to suffer a loss of something between Rs 12,000 and Rs 15,000 Crores. “This is temporary and under pressure from separatists, we are sure Kashmiri traders will resume ties with us”, said a trade representative in Jammu who
did not wish to be named. The Kashmiri traders however say that they have already started dealing directly with the traders in other trade centers of country with a view to bypass Jammu. Trade and industry in Jammu stands almost isolated at present. The trans-LoC trade was supposed to building trust on both sides of Line of Control but this is being initiated when there is huge trust deficit within the state. Double whammy For the Congress led United Progressive Alliance government, the initiation of Cross-LoC trade is though a major brownie point in its peacemaking record, at the same time it could be a most difficult situation of the recent times. The trans-LoC trade has its own political advantages and disadvantages. If the political atmosphere continues like it is prevailing now, the political disadvantages may far outweigh the advantages. It was the UPA G o v e r n m e n t u n d e r Pr i m e Minister Manmohan Singh which won hearts of lakhs of people by initiating two trans-LoC bus services for divided families –one in 2005 and other in 2006. That was internationally billed as mother of all Confidence Building Measures and Pakistan's then President Musharraf too earned huge accolades. This time the same route is being thrown open for trade when separatist sentiment in Kashmir Valley is at its highest –perhaps
highest so far. Many in Jammu and elsewhere in the country are describing initiation of LoC trade “at this stage” as succumbing before the separatist pressure even though it has been a part of composite dialogue. Alleging blockage of economic supplies from Jammu during the Amarnath land row, the Kashmiri separatists announced a march to Muzaffarabad with trucks loaded with fruits. Home Minister Shivraj Patil was on a two-day J&K visit as head of a central delegation. At a Srinagar Press Conference on August 11, Patil said, “I appeal these people not to make any such move which puts them (Kashmiri traders) and us in a difficult situation”. Patil went on say, “I appeal them from here, please put off your proposal (of Muzaffarabad march) as we are sincere about opening the LoC route for trade…wait for October…this will be open”. Patil's response to the “Muzaffarabad call” was perhaps enough to make a Confidence Building Measure look like surrender. Patil's appeal notwithstanding on August 11, lakhs of people from different parts of Valley trooped to the Line of Control along Jehlum Valley road in their symbolic march to Muzaffarabad. Security forces used force to thwart the attempt and 18 were killed in two days. Since then people in Kashmir Valley have been in toes fighting pitched battles with the forces. More than 40 have been killed in firing of security forces since August 11.
Epilogue Ø 21 × October 2008
What Is on Menu Exports Carpets, Rugs, Papier Mache, Embroidery, Shawls and Tapestry, Cricket Bats, Furniture, Silk & Products, Fresh Fruits, Dry Fruits, Kashmiri Spacies, Kashmir Saffron, Kashmir Wazwan, Aromatic & Medical Plants, Coriander, Mong Dal, Rice, Basmati Rice, Rajmash, Black Mushroom and Green Tea.
Imports Spices, Apples, Walnuts, Rice, Precious Stones, Papier Mache, Powder, Gabbas & Namdas, Furniture, Marble, Onion, Garlic, Medicinal Herbs, Embroidered Items, Pine Nuts and Carpets
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‘Let It Be Appeasement, Eventually It Is Going To Be Pure Business’ Interview Ram Sahai, President, Jammu Chamber of Commerce and Industries
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or a couple of years you have been a part of discussions and consultations on the process as one of most vocal votary of the trade. How do you look at the scenario when prospects of trans-LoC trade between two parts of Jammu and Kashmir are appearing more practical than ever? Well, in backdrop of recent tension between Kashmir and Jammu, I don't want to comment much except that the trans-LoC trade is good happening but it is being projected in a wrong manner. W r o n g m a n n e r ? Yo u m e a n appeasement to separatists following their march to Muzaffarabad? Let it be appeasement but eventually it is going to be trade to the common benefit of all stakeholders on both sides of Line of Control. How do you look at the list of items agreed upon for trade? Does this really make a business sense? The initial list which we are seeing now does not hold much promise but eventually it has to expand to make trade more practical. Most of the items on trade list have their Kashmir specific origin –like fruits, dry fruits, handicrafts etc.
what does Jammu gain out of it. I told you the present list is more symbolic in nature but eventually it has to expand. We believe that the list is being revised to accommodate apple which was not on the original menu and taking advantage of this revision we have made a strong case of inclusion of some more items which will make Jammu region an equal partner in transLoC trade. So what are those items? We have asked for inclusion of pharmaceuticals, aluminium cables, copper cables, welding electrodes, TMT steel, paints and varnishes, plastic goods, corrugated packaging, sanitary wares, coir and spring mattresses and pipe fittings etc. Jammu has huge potential of all these products and any good number of items agreed from this list can change destiny of the region. Nine to ten of the top pharmaceutical companies of India are based in Jammu. Other products named above are of international quality and offered at highly competitive prices. Most of these items in the Pakistan administered Kashmir are of Chinese origin and reach there at a high cost. Trade in these commodities will help both regions immensely. Poonch-Rawalakote road is also being thrown open for trade along with Srinagar-Muzaffarabad. Poonch falls in
Epilogue Ø 22 × October 2008
Jammu region. What prospects do you see for this route? Not quite bright. We are making a strong case for opening of three other routes –from Nowshera, Pallanwalla and Suchetgarh. On Sialkote-Suchetgarh road –which will run across International Border in Jammu region –we have support of top trade and industry lobbies of the country including FICCI and ASSOCHAM. Once there routes are opened, the PoonchRawalakote route would have hardly any utility for trade. It is nice that trade links are being established across Line of Control but within state gulf is seen widening. Kashmir based traders are snapping ties with Jammu on the allegations that economic blockade of Valley was forced during Amarnath land row. First of all I would like to clarify that there was no economic blockage at all. There may have been some disruptions but that is normal when normal activity of life is concerned. As far as widening gulf and snapping of trade ties between Kashmir and Jammu is concerned, this problem is momentary and will settle down soon. Kashmir and Jammu are interdependent and inseparable parts of the state as whole and they have to live with and deal with each other. It is unfortunate that the politicians are not playing a role of cementing ties.
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Indo-Pak Joint Statement
New York, September 25, 2008
T
he President of Pakistan and Prime Minister of India met during the 63rd UNGA session in New York. Prime Minister Singh congratulated President Zardari on his election as the victory of democracy in Pakistan. He expressed the hope that this would pave the way for a profound transformation of the bilateral relationship so that India and Pakistan could work together on their shared objectives of peace, prosperity and security. Both leaders welcomed the several positive outcomes of the four rounds of the Composite Dialogues which have brought their people and businesses and institutions closer while permitting sustained efforts to be made to resolve all outstanding issues: these gains need to be consolidated.
verifiably prevented. Severe actions would be taken against any element directing or involved in terrorist acts. Pr e s i d e n t Z a r d a r i reassured PM Singh that government of Pakistan stand by its commitment of January 6, 2004. Both leaders agreed that the forces that have tried to derail the peace process must be defeated. This would allow the continuation and deepening of a constructive dialogues for the peaceful resolution and satisfactory settlement of all bilateral issues including Jammu and Kashmir.
Indian Embassy in Kabul. The expansion of people-to-people contact, trade, commerce and economic cooperation provides an effective platform to develop and strengthen bilateral relations. Towards this end, it was decided to:
The Foreign Secretaries of both countries will schedule meetings of the 5th round of 'Composite Dialogue' in the next three months which will focus on deliverable and comprehensive achievements.
They agreed to work for an early and full normalisation of relations between India and Pakistan, on the basis of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and non-interference. Both leaders acknowledged that the peace process has been under strain in recent months.
The cease-fire should be stabilised to this end, DGMOs and sector commanders will stay in regular contacts.
They agreed that violence, hostility and terrorism have no place in the vision they share of the bilateral relationship and must be visibly and
A special meeting of the Joint AntiTerror Mechanism will be held in October, 2008 to address mutual concerns including the bombing of the
Epilogue Ă˜ 23 Ă— October 2008
Open the Wagah-Attari road link to all permissible items of trade. Open the Khokrapar-Munnabao rail routes to all permissible items of trade. Continue interaction between the planning commission of both the countries to develop mutually beneficial cooperation including the energy sector. Commence cross LoC trade on the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad and PoonchRawalakot roads on October 21, 2008. Modalities for the opening of the Skardu-Kargil route will be discussed soon.
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Making Borders Irrelevant P.R. Chari & Hasan Askari Rizvi
This report commissioned by USIP, analyzes the possibilities and practicalities of managing the Kashmir conflict by “making borders irrelevant” —softening the Line of Control to allow the easy movement of people, goods, and services across it. The report draws on the results of a survey of stakeholders and public opinion on both sides of the Line of Control. The results of that survey, together with an initial draft of this report, were shown to a group of opinion makers in both countries (ff bureaucrats and diplomats, members of the armed forces, academics, and members of the media), whose comments were valuable in refining the report's conclusions. P. R. Chari is a research professor at the Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies in New Delhi and former member of the Indian Administrative Service. Hasan Askari Rizvi is an independent political and defense consultant in Pakistan and is currently a visiting professor with the South Asia Program of the School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University. This report was commissioned by the Center for Conflict Mediation and Resolution at the United States Institute of Peace. The Center supports a variety of projects that explore the potential of cross-border collaboration especially economic and business-based cooperation to resolve the protracted conflict between India and Pakistan.
Summary
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either India nor Pakistan has been able to impose its preferred solution on the long-standing Kashmir conflict and both sides have gradually shown more flexibility in their traditional positions on Kashmir, without officially abandoning them. This development has encouraged the consideration of new, creative approaches to the management of the conflict. The approach holding the most promise is a pragmatic one that would “make borders irrelevant”—softening borders to allow movement of people, goods and services instead of redefining or removing them. The governments of India and Pakistan have both repeatedly endorsed the concept, but steps to implement it have been limited. Myriad suggestions for putting this new mantra into practice have been made, from establishing more bus services to increasing trade and tourism across the Line of Control (LOC).While some of these suggestions still await official consideration, others are being examined, and some have already been implemented. Liberalization of the travel regime would be a major step toward enabling the two parts of Kashmir to develop a multifaceted and normal relationship. Such liberalization requires overcoming a mixture of political, bureaucratic, and regulatory challenges. A survey of opinion on both sides of the LOC reveals that the public mood in both countries favors peace, stability and a softening of the LOC. The international climate is also propitious for confidencebuilding measures. It remains to be seen, however, if New Delhi and Islamabad can muster the political will necessary to overcome the resistance of key stakeholders within both countries bureaucracies and militaries.
Epilogue Ø 24 × October 2008
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Minds Set in Concrete The strategic compulsions on the Kashmir issue that are currently impelling the ruling elites in India and Pakistan have encrusted over its sixtyone-year history and are now deeply embedded in their psyches. In India, the ruling elite is adamant that the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), having acceded to India in October 1947,has become an inalienable part of Indian territory and that Pakistan must vacate the territory it illegally occupies. Hence, the only dialogue India needs to hold with Pakistan is a discussion about the return of occupied territory. Further, India refuses to accept any form of third-party intervention to resolve the Kashmir dispute. India argues that the UN resolutions on Kashmir passed in 1948 and 1949 envisaging the holding of a plebiscite in J&K have become obsolete with the passage of time, and that several elections held in J&K over the past six decades make it clear that the local population accepts the Indian government and has no desire to join Pakistan. Pakistan rejects the Indian argument that the UN resolutions have become redundant. Indeed, Pakistan's position on Kashmir has always been based on the strict implementation of the UN resolutions that call for holding a plebiscite in J&K to determine whether its people wish to join India or Pakistan. Forgotten in this standoff are the Kashmiris living in J&K and Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK, the political entity on the Pakistani side of the LOC).In the past, the Kashmir dispute was viewed in purely bilateral terms and the
aspirations of the Kashmiris were largely ignored, but there is now a growing appreciation of the fact that any solution to the Kashmir dispute must be acceptable to the local people. An additional complexity in J&K is the conviction among many people in two sub-regions of the state Jammu and Ladakh—that the agenda for the peace process has been hijacked by the Muslims in the Kashmir Valley. Consequently, the Kashmir dispute becomes tri-cornered at two levels: India, Pakistan and Kashmiris on both sides of the LOC at one level and the Valley, Jammu and Ladakh at another level. The multifaceted nature of this conflict has complicated the quest to resolve it, requiring management of the regional, ethnic and religious diversities both arts f Kashmir. Despite their repeated assertions of these conflicting claims and counterclaims, India and Pakistan have been unable to extend their respective claims across the LOC. Neither direct military action nor covert operations nor support for dissident movements has thus far succeeded. Each country, however, has invested too heavily in the struggle to accept the loss of its part of Kashmir, and both countries reject the i d e a of Ka sh m i r b e c om i n g a n independent state.
Changing attitudes The Kashmir dispute has reached an impasse. Unable to impose their preferred solution, both India and Pakistan have become flexible regarding their traditional positions on
Epilogue Ă˜ 25 Ă— October 2008
Kashmir, without officially abandoning them. Subtle changes in their positions have stimulated creative ideas for managing the conflict. Several developments have contributed to this attitudinal shift, among them the end of the Cold War, the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the current resurgence of Russia, the rise of China and its support for the peace process between India a n d Pa k i s t a n , t h e s p r e a d o f globalization and its implications for international security, internal economic pressures, the nuclear tests conducted by India and Pakistan in May 1998 that consolidated a nuclear deterrent relationship, and the U.S. global response to the attacks of September 11, 2001. The last two of these developments have led India and Pakistan to realize that a military victory over the other is not possible. The acquisition of nuclear weapons has highlighted the grave risks of trying to alter the status quo by military means, as illustrated during the Kargil conflict of 1999 and the 2001-02 border confrontation. During the Kargil conflict neither country could extend its theater of operations because of fears that the conflict might become nuclearized. For similar reasons, India was deterred from attacking Pakistan during the border confrontation in 2001-02. Pakistan has also realized the dangerous implications of supporting militancy; it was Pakistani-backed militants who attacked the Indian Parliament on December 13, 2001, triggering the border confrontation. Pakistan's readiness to support militancy has also diminished since Pakistan itself has become the target of
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Islamic jihadists and has experienced terrorist attacks throughout the country. The U.S. global war on terrorism has also increased the cost for Pakistan of indulging in provocative behavior. The terrorist attacks in New York and Washington, D.C., on September 11, 2001, created a global consensus for controlling transnational terrorism, especially Islamic militants and jihadi groups. Pakistan has since found it difficult to support the jihadi Islamic groups in J&K. Furthermore, the passage of a 2007 law in the United States has linked American military and economic assistance to Pakistan to its performance in stopping cross-border terrorism. The United States has now established a physical presence in Pakistan to pursue its “war on terror” in Afghanistan, which inhibits hostilities being initiated by either India or Pakistan. Any attempt by either country to improve its ground situation in Kashmir would be frowned upon by the international community and might prompt economic repercussions, as occurred during the 2001 –02 border confrontation crisis when “travel advisories ” were issued by the United States and several other developed countries, is couraging heir citizens from visiting India. Given that a major conventional conflict is dangerous, a nuclear conflict is unthinkable, and any forcible alteration of status quo would be unacceptable to the international community, both India and Pakistan have realized that they have no alternative but to enter into a peace process. India has discarded its traditional stand that the whole of
Kashmir belongs to India and has shown signs of departing from its stated policy of negotiating with Pakistan only after cross-border terrorism ceases. Further, India's long-standing policy of shunning international mediation and insisting on strict bilateralism in its dealings with Pakistan has been diluted considerably. On Pakistan's part, former President Pervez Musharraf abandoned his country's traditional position of insisting on implementing the UN resolutions on Kashmir. The new government in Pakistan has declared that it wishes to take the peace process forward. Indeed, Asif Zardari, cochairman of the
Both countries agree that independence for Kashmir is not an acceptable option, although they also agree that the Kashmiris should be included within the peace process. Pakistan People's Party, even suggested freezing the Kashmir issue, although he later had to backtrack n hat proposal. This transformation in India-Pakistan relations can be traced back to Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee's statement in the symbolically significant venue of Srinagar the summer capital of J&K —on April 18, 2003, extending a “hand of friendship” to Pakistan. A cease-fire along the LOC was suggested by Pakistan's Prime Minister, Zafarullah Khan Jamali, in November 2003. India accepted his offer and suggested its extension to Siachen, an undemorcated region north of but adjacent to the LOC. On November 26, the cease-fire went into effect, greatly improving the safety of
Epilogue Ø 26 × October 2008
people living along the border. The resulting peace process, though slow, has made steady progress, with significant improvements occurring in cross-border communications and the movement of people and goods.
A flexible impasse The peace process and changing attitudes have produced greater transparency in negotiations for a solution to the Kashmir problem. There is a new realization that peace and stability are essential for both countries to attain their full political and economic stature and that, conversely, tensions and instabilities will retard their growth, resulting in their internal security situation deteriorating and spilling cross orders. Both countries agree that independence for Kashmir is not an acceptable option, although they also agree that the Kashmiris should be included within the peace process and assured a measure of self-rule within the present borders of the two countries, and that these borders should be made more permeable. Appreciation has grown of the role that multiple dialogues can play in animating the peace process and of the need to reach an agreement on the Kashmir dispute that is acceptable to India, Pakistan, and the Kashmiris. These negotiations must address the differences between New Delhi and Islamabad, New Delhi and Srinagar, Islamabad and Muzaffarabad (the capital of AJK) and finally, Srinagar and Muzaffarabad. Both India and Pakistan have a greater sympathy now toward the human dimensions of the issue. A new recognition has also accrued about permitting freer movement of people
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across the LOC, including members of the media and political leaders from both sides. As part of this study, a survey was conducted on both sides of the LOC to elicit the opinions of various interested groups —including businessmen, members of the media, academics, former government servants and the public at large —regarding their attitudes toward the peace process, their understanding of the concept of “making borders irrelevant,” and their thoughts on what could be done to advance that process. On the Indian side, the survey was conducted in the summer and the fall of 2007 in twelve towns in J&K, with twenty-five respondents in each town being chosen at random from among the local population. Budgetary and time constraints dictated a smaller sample in Pakistan, where the survey was conducted in the districts of Mirpur, Muzaffarabad and Rawalakot in AJK among some fifty respondents, including local people, refugees (postPP and immigrants after 1990),, members of divided families, and those living close to the LOC. Similar questions were asked on both sides of the border by interviewers who had no contact with one another. Remarkably, the answers obtained were very similar. The most significant finding is that the public mood among Kashmiris on both sides of the border favors peace and stability. Reflective of a widespread fatigue with mutual tensions and persistent instabilities and of cynicism regarding officially inspired negative propaganda—there is a popular desire to normalize relations. This sentiment has manifested itself in the
public's level of enthusiasm for visiting the other country. Tourist traffic, as well as other kinds of traffic, across the border is growing rapidly and would dramatically increase if the visa regime was made less restrictive and travel schedules were made less onerous. A plethora of Track-II initiatives have strengthened the official peace process. Regular meetings between officials involved in the Track-I process have also created an atmosphere favorable to normalizing bilateral relations. Thanks in part to backchannel diplomacy conducted by interlocutors designated by both countries, a serious commitment to the
Easily recognizable constituencies in India and Pakistan have a vested interest in continuing the Kashmir dispute. peace process can now be found at the very highest political levels in both Pakistan and India, despite some reservations within their bureaucracies. At the same time, any resolution of the Kashmir dispute will have to acknowledge and overcome a number of serious constraints on the peacemaking process. Easily recognizable constituencies in India and Pakistan have a vested interest in continuing the Kashmir dispute, seeing dangers to their personal and institutional interests should the dispute be resolved. For instance, elements within both countries' civil and military bureaucracies, especially within their intelligence agencies, know that their centrality in the decision-making
Epilogue Ø 27 × October 2008
process would diminish if Kashmir dropped off the national security agenda. In addition, large sections of the strategic elite (mm of serving and retired civilian and military officials, intelligence officers, concerned media persons, academics, and politicians with special interests in security matters) argue that the time is not yet ripe for the peace process to proceed fruitfully. Their negative belief is sustained by the parlous state of domestic politics in India and Pakistan, which constitutes the greatest challenge to peacemaking. Any individual or party pleading for a deepening of the peace process is likely to be attacked for “selling out” the national interest. In India, fundamentalist and hard-line Hindu groups and right-wing parties are opposed to any political accommodation with Pakistan and to any flexibility in India's traditional position on Kashmir. A similar situation exists in Pakistan, where hard-line Islamic parties, militant Islamic groups and major rightwing political groups are critical of the peace process and want the government to revert to its earlier insistence on implementing the UN resolutions on Kashmir. Any discussion of the options for addressing the Kashmir dispute must appreciate the importance Kashmiris place on preserving their Kashmiri identity and Kashmiriyat-based culture, which is an amalgam of a distinct language (KK a secular polity, and a cross-cultural character that includes elements of Islam, Buddhism, and Hinduism. Kashmiriyat has greatly eroded over the last three decades due
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to increased Islamic orthodoxy and militancy. The human aspects of the Kashmir dispute must also be factored into devising any solution to this problem. Most people in the Kashmir Valley (883 percent according to the survey conducted) support the peace process as a good beginning, but are skeptical about its outcome, believing that the peace process is meaningless if it remains bilateral and excludes them. These various constraints have stymied the adoption of a number of possible solutions to the Kashmir dispute. The governments of India and Pakistan, academics, and others interested in the welfare of the people of Kashmir have explored options ranging from total or partial independence to autonomy, referendum, partition, and even the maintenance of the status quo. None of these comprehensive solutions has been supported by any consensus of public opinion, which strengthens the case for reducing tensions by measures that both sides can accept measures such as making the existing borders permeable and irrelevant.
manage the Kashmir conflict without having to agree to a final settlement. These steps would address the major concerns of the parties involved and would be in accordance with the basic policy parameters laid down by the two countries. The Indian government has repeatedly argued that borders cannot be changed, while Pakistan refuses to accept the LOC as an international
The LOC would be retained as a dividing line but softened by allowing the easy movement of people, goods and services across it. border. The softening of the LOC would thus satisfy Indian demands that there be no territorial exchange and no legal alteration of the border. Another advantage from the Indian government's perspective is that making the LOC irrelevant skirts the dangers of encouraging other states in
the Indian Union to demand greater autonomy or self-rule. Were Kashmir to be granted greater autonomy or selfrule, similar demands could be voiced by other states in the Union, which would need to be conceded on grounds of equity. The Union government has been wary of loosening its political, economic, and administrative control over the states and altering the balance of power within India's federal structure, lest it release centrifugal forces in the country. In Pakistan, any solution premised on the permanent division of Kashmir is anathema to the military, as well as to the major political parties. Therefore, the Pakistani government and the military are unwilling to accept any solution that converts the LOC into an international border. However, conscious that neither India nor Pakistan can gain control over the whole of Kashmir by either war or diplomacy, Pakistani officials favor the idea of making the LOC irrelevant. Incidentally,
The potential Value of Making Borders irrelevant The strategy of making borders irrelevant by “softening” borders is a compromise between the elimination of the LOC and its conversion into an international border. Under this approach, the LOC would be retained as a dividing line but softened by allowing the easy movement of people, goods and services across it. Important steps were taken by India and Pakistan in 2005 and 2006 to effect this cross-LOC interaction, and these steps could be expanded to enable the parties to
TERMINAL : Central team at Kaman Post an Sept. 6
Epilogue Ø 28 × October 2008
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no group in Pakistan opposed the launching in 2005 of the MuzaffarabadSrinagar bus service (discussed below), and similar steps would be acceptable to the Pakistani government, which is already seeking to build support for a “pragmatic” solution to the Kashmir dispute. On August 15, 2007, Pakistan's foreign minister, Khurshid Mahmood Kasuri, said in an interview that any solution to the Kashmir problem cannot be “ideal” for the concerned parties, but that both parties will have to make concessions to resolve the problem. He added, “Ultimately a solution to Kashmir will be one that is not the best perceived either by a majority of Indians, majority of Pakistanis or a majority of Kashmiris.” Within Kashmir itself, the proposal to make borders irrelevant means different things to different people. Some understand it to mean that different parts of Kashmir will be united, other interpret it to mean that they will be allowed to travel and trade freely, and still others believe that making borders irrelevant will permit greater cultural exchanges. These differences in understanding are not important to a resolution of the Kashmir problem. What is significant is that the proposal accommodates the immense ethno-political diversity and incipient fissiparous rends within he region. The value of peace has been underlined since the devastating earthquake of October 2005; as Kashmiris have come to realize, if efforts to rehabilitate and reconstruct the damaged areas are to proceed smoothly, peace needs to prevail. More generally, most Kashmiris believe that increased movement across the LOC would not only bring relief to divided families but would also revive the area's
economy and help people in the two parts of Kashmir to understand one another and evolve a common position on a possible solution to the dispute. The Kashmiri intelligentsia remains convinced, however, that neither India nor Pakistan will ever agree to the unification of the state except on its own terms (terms that the other country will inevitably reject)and that the idea of making borders irrelevant is thus the best available option.
families, who, when the border remained closed, had to travel long distances by circuitous routes to meet their relatives. Conversations with local people suggest that divided families constitute more than 60 percent of the total population in AJK. Although they do not have any influence over the policies of their respective governments, divided families do enjoy widespread support within civil society at regional and national levels.
According to the survey, most Kashmiris believe that “vested interests” (i.e. the armed forces and intelligence organizations) oppose the idea of making borders irrelevant because they
The strongest support for the idea of soft borders is found within the business communities, in particular within the manufacturing, horticultural, and tourism industries throughout Kashmir. The business community believes that movement of goods across a divided territory is a natural corollary to the movement of divided families. If transLOC arrangements are negotiated to the satisfaction of the two countries and offer tangible benefits to people in both parts of Kashmir, these measures will gain popular support. Much depends on what arrangements are negotiated and how swiftly they are implemented.
Conversations with local people suggest that divided families constitute more than 60 percent of the total population in AJK. will lose their relevance and budgets if the peace process succeeds. The Union government and the J&K government are also seen as stumbling blocks, being slow to make decisions and insincere in their commitment to the peace process. A small section of the public believes that free and increased movement across the LOC would generate new and unpredictable dynamics with the potential to embarrass both national governments, and might even lead to the development of a new Kashmiri consciousness, which would be welcome Islamabad and New Delhi. Several constituencies in Kashmir have a vital interest in seeing the borders between the two Kashmirs reopened. The most numerous of these groups are the divided families, especially poor
Epilogue Ø 29 × October 2008
Steps toward Making Borders irrelevant A wide range of measures have been proposed to promote interactions across the LOC and enable the two parts of Kashmir to develop a multifaceted relationship. Some of these measures are already being implemented. Others are in various stages of negotiation or implementation. Still others remain just proposals for now, being seen as impractical or too far-reaching one or both governments. In essence, they all emphasize a people oriented approach while highlighting the need for freer
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CHINARI
MUZAFFARABAD
ISLAMABAD
PESHAWAR
issue critical to both cross-borders, people-to-people contacts and trade a n d e x p l o r e s t h e r e g u l a t o r y, bureaucratic and political changes that need to be made to allow liberalization of proceed.
People-to-People Contact People-to-people contact can be enhanced by facilitating cross-border mobility and by creating and strengthening civil society linkages.
Facilitating Cross-Border Mobility
FIRST RUN : Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus, April 7, 2005
movement of people and trade across both sides of Kashmir, instead of continuing the quest for an elusive territorial solution to the Kashmir problem. Measures with the potential to make borders irrelevant can be classified into four broad categories: *
Promoting contact
people-to-people
*
Increasing trade and commerce across the LOC
*
Encouraging humanitarian aid and development.
*
Improving governance, including
security administration.
The most significant step toward increasing cross-border mobility has been the reestablishment of bus services. Each of these four categories is discussed below. In each case, the discussion covers steps already taken, steps proposed, difficulties in implementing specific measures and possible solutions to those difficulties. Thereafter, this report takes an indepth look at one particular measure, liberalization of the travel regime an
Epilogue Ă˜ 30 Ă— October 2008
Crossing points: India and Pakistan decided to ease interaction across the LOC after the earthquake in Kashmir on October 8, 2005; the AJK part was hit very hard and several districts in the Northwest Frontier Province were also affected. On October 29 the two countries agreed to open five new crossings on the LOC to expedite relief operations and reunite divided families. These five foot-crossings were NauseriTithwal, Chokothi-Uri, Hajipur-Uri, Rawalakot-PP and Tattapani-MM When the first crossing point, Rawalakot-Poonch was opened on November 7 to allow the exchange of earthquake relief goods, several hundred Kashmiris on the Pakistani side surged toward the LOC in their eagerness, saying they wanted to go to the other side to meet their relations, although they had not completed the necessary travel formalities and had to be restrained by force. Bus Services: The most significant step toward increasing cross-border mobility has been the reestablishment of bus services between J&K and AJK. In April
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2005, the Srinagar-MM road was opened and the bus service along it (which had been suspended since 1965) restored. This service was disrupted by damage to the road caused by the October 2005 earthquake, but after some months the service was restored. In January 2006 ,India and Pakistan agreed to start another bus service, linking Poonch and Rawalakot. Official Indian statistics show that almost three thousand passengers traveled on the Srinagar-MM bus service between April 2005 and the end of 2006. The Poonch-Rawalakot bus service, which started in June 2006, carried fourteen hundred in the second half of 2006. The two bus services are very important confidence-building measures. However, passengers have to go through a cumbersome procedure to get permission from both governments to cross the LOC, which discourages many people from traveling. The federal intelligence agencies need to verify visa applications, which leads to delays. Furthermore, only those applicants with close relatives on the other side are allowed to travel. There is also an absolute prohibition on officials from Pakistan traveling across the border into J&K. Consequently, only a limited number of people from both sides have benefited from the new bus services.
established across the LOC. In its report issued in January 2007, the Working Group on Strengthening Relations across the Line of Control (established in May 2006 by New Delhi as one of five working groups tasked with exploring particular issues relating to J&K) identifies seven roads that could be opened to cross-border traffic: KargilSkardu, Jammu-Sialkot, TurtukKhapulu, Chamb-Jaurian-MMirpur, Gurez-AA Tithwal-Chilhan, and Jhangar (N Mirpur-KK 4 “Kashmir:Present Situation and Future Prospects,” the 2007 report by Baroness Emma Nicholson, the European Union' srapporteur on Kashmir, draws attention to the value of linking Ladakh with the Northern Areas in Pakistan, a step that could erode the aspirations for separatism in this subregion. A more radical suggestion is to open the Karakoram highway to trade and travel from the Ladakh region in J&K. Several
of these new road openings are being negotiated by the two governments. The roads do not presently carry enough traffic to make commercial bus services viable, but their opening would allow people to move across the LOC by private transport and might eventually generate enough traffic to permit commercial bus services. Proposals to improve cross-LOC travel have been criticized on the grounds that the number of travelers along the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad road has dwindled considerably since it was opened in April 2005. While it is true that the initial enthusiasm to use the road has declined, it should be noted that some travelers now prefer to take the subsequently opened PoonchRRawalakot road. Moreover, the symbolic significance —indeed mystique of the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad road should not be underplayed. Its opening
Demands for simplifying the visa procedures (for instance, by letting the local state governments handle the granting of visas) have not yet been accepted by the two national governments. Road links: Calls have come from several quarters for more roads to be opened and more bus services
A Kashmir passenger being received in Muzaffarabad
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initiated the process of restoring communications between AJK and J&K. It has given concrete shape to the “peace dividend,” which has influenced other aspects of India-Pakistan relations. It has also created a psychological sense of space in the Valley, because travel from the Valley to other parts of J&K is seriously limited by the unavailability of roads and adverse weather conditions for much of the year Pilgrimage Routes: A radical suggestion has been made to open the Leh-Xinjiang road across the LOC, which would provide an alternative route for the Kailash-MM yatra (pilgrimage) undertaken by Hindus from India to Tibet. This idea highlights the possibility of cross-LOC traffic being extended not just to major cities in India and Pakistan but also to Afghanistan, Central Asia and Tibet thereby restoring the freedom of travel that prevailed before partition and dad existed since historical times. Rail links: The establishment of rail links between Jammu and Sialkot and between Srinagar and Muzaffarabad (and from there onward to Abbotabad and Rawalpindi), would be welcomed by people on both sides of the LOC and give a great impetus to the peace process.
Creating and Strengthening Civil Society linkages Contacts between interest Groups: Contacts between special interest and professional groups need to be encouraged so that Kashmiris can participate in the search for peace. The Working Group Report has recommended exchanges between
students and faculty from universities on both sides of the LOC, as well as exchanges of journalists and lawyers. Other groups that could profit from exchanges include professional groups concerned with public health and disaster management. Joint University: A multicampus university could be established that straddles the LOC. Initially, two campuses could be situated in Muzaffarabad and Srinagar, with other campuses established subsequently in other cities on both sides of the LOC. This would facilitate the exchange of
the LOC would greatly stimulate contact between people on both sides of the border, allowing them to exchange e-mail, post and respond to blogs and stay abreast of developing news stories. Internet access would also allow journalists for electronic and print media to develop closer crossborder contacts with one another. Television programs broadcast from one side of the LOC can usually be watched on the other side, and some attract large audiences, reflecting the common culture of the people on both sides of the LOC.
Trade and Commerce
Large-sscale trade in worldfamous Kashmiri products is being conducted illegally, through third-country sources and smuggling. teachers and students. According to the survey conducted for this study, the academic community strongly supports cross-border schooling and employment initiatives. Telephonic Communications: The restoration of telephone landlines that were cut in 1965 and an expansion of mobile telephone services across the LOC should be considered. People in J&K are not allowed to make direct telephone calls across the LOC—yet this prohibition makes little sense, or alls an f course e made via mobile phones and satellite-linked communications. The government of India is reconsidering this ban but the Indian security forces want to maintain it, purportedly to impede cross-border terrorism. Electronic Communications: Enhanced access to the Internet on both sides of
Epilogue Ø 32 × October 2008
Trade between the two parts of Kashmir is only a fraction of what it could be if both tariff and nontariff barriers were removed. Currently, the bulk of trade between India and Pakistan trade occurs via third-party transfers and smuggling, leading to corruption and the loss of customs revenue. The reestablishment of pre-Partition patterns of trade and commerce, especially between the two parts of Kashmir, would greatly assist the improvement of mutual relations. It would also spur economic recovery from the October earthquake, and could help to educe militancy, which is largely fueled unemployment. Horticultural products, handicraft items, and dry fruits are the goods that were traditionally exported from J&K to markets in Pakistan's Punjab province. Some newer and nontraditional items, such as cement and construction materials, are available at cheaper prices in J&K and would find a strong market in AJK, where reconstruction efforts after the 2005 earthquake are
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still under way. Open and free trade between J&K and AJK would greatly benefit people on both sides of the LOC, especially the business and trading community in Pakistan border districts such as Sialkot and Gujrat. At present, large-scale trade in world-famous Kashmiri products such as shawls, wood carvings, carpets, and embroidery is being conducted illegally, through third-country sources and smuggling. The respondents to our survey, while strongly advocating the case for trade were keen to point out the comparative advantage of establishing direct trade links between J&K and Pakistan through AJK. They argue that a truck takes about thirty-six hours to reach Delhi from Srinagar but only eight to ten hours to reach Islamabad and thus Islamabad offers a very attractive market for Kashmiri products. One must be careful not to exaggerate the prospects for cross-border trade. Hopes of creating a substantial demand for Kashmiri products will be realized only if road communications are extended deeper into India and Pakistan. One truckload of apples from the Kashmir Valley, for instance, could flood the markets in Muzaffarabad for a week; hence the apple trade in the Valley can flourish only if it is allowed to exploit the lucrative markets located farther within Pakistan. In March 2008, Jairam Ramesh, the Union minister for commerce in India, announced that cross-LOC trade would begin in ninety days. The issue was discussed by the foreign secretaries of India and Pakistan in May 2008, and a decision in principle was taken to proceed further; however, technical issues regarding the kinds and amounts
of goods to be traded remain to be negotiated. Border trade and inspections: The possibility of border trade being permitted at the five crossing points opened for earthquake relief is worth exploring for the convenience of people living on both sides of the LOC. The roads that lead to these crossing points could be upgraded to permit truck traffic, assuming that such traffic is found to be commercially viable and official fears about smuggling can be overcome. Administrative arrangements for unloading and checking goods at border posts need improvement. The possibility of identified goods (i.e. goods positively identified by the Indian and Pakistani governments for trade between the two countries) going directly o heir ultimate destinations, rather than navigating web of inhibiting regulations and procedures, merits consideration. Bilateral trade promotion: The Working Group Report recommends the establishment of a Joint Consultative Machinery, comprising officials and representatives of commerce and industry from both sides, to promote bilateral trade. Baroness Nicholson's report also stresses the need “to move rapidly to significant volumes of official trade, apart from working out the modalities of road freight,” and suggests the “establishment of an integrated market development plan, with several agri-processing units, cold chains, small-size container services and bonded trucking services” on both sides of the LOC. Bilateral trade would also be spurred if both countries could agree to establish product-specific trading houses and to
Epilogue Ø 33 × October 2008
open branches of commercial banks on both sides of the LOC. At present, however, this idea has yet to be considered by the two governments. One way to encourage cross-border trade and commerce would be to waive customs duties for several years, thereby creating a free trade area in Kashmir. River Transport: The traditional export route for timber from the Valley before Partition was the Jhelum River, which flows into Pakistan. The possibilities of riverine transportation should be looked at afresh. Cross-LOC cooperation in this area might prove productive, though the river would need considerable de-silting before it could once again carry Significant Traffic. Tourism : A radical idea for promoting tourism is to enable people to visit Buddhist historical and religious sites in Ladakh, Baltistan and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas region.
Humanitarian Aid & Development In the process of making borders irrelevant, a variety of humanitarian measures and steps to promote development could prove helpful. Medical Treatment: Much goodwill could be engendered, as well as much practical help given to people who need it, by allowing people who live on one side of the LOC to receive emergency treatment in hospitals on the other side. Similarly, patients with particular ailments could also be permitted to cross the LOC to visit hospitals that specialize in the treatment of those ailments.
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Demining : A joint effort could be mounted to locate and remove landmines that have been planted on both sides of the LOC over the years and that take a steady toll of farmers, herders, and livestock. Disaster Management: The two Kashmirs could routinely share information on weather conditions, seismic activity and flow of water in rivers information that could help to generate early warnings of floods and other natural disasters. Such cooperation could evolve into a longterm process of monitoring and researching the retreat of glaciers, the incidence of earthquakes, and other environmental concerns. Forest Management : Forest wealth is the common heritage of Kashmir. Cooperation in joint management of forests that lie across the LOC is essential to halt the large-scale illegal felling of trees that takes place with the connivance of civilian officials and security forces. Such cooperation would also enable environmental protection of the delicate ecosystems in Siachen, Saltoro, and other glacier regions. Hydropower and Irrigation : Several projects to share hydropower generated on both sides of the LOC are currently mired in bilateral negotiations whose glacial pace reflects the parlous state of India-Pakistan relations but squanders Kashmir's economic and developmental promise. The linking of electrical grids would be a major step forward in the process of making the LOC irrelevant. So, too, would mutually beneficial irrigation projects that use the waters of the Indus. The much-praised Indus Waters
Treaty is in reality a suboptimal arrangement, because t only partitions the rivers of he Indus River basin between India and Pakistan and does not address their joint exploitation. A holistic scheme for interlinking these rivers, developing riverine transport, establishing joint irrigation and powergeneration projects, creating new agricultural markets, and extending roads and communications could lead to a comprehensive economic restructuring of the entire river basin. In the meantime, the Himalayan glaciers (the source for the rivers in the Indus basin) continue to retreat, underlining the fact that water
One way to encourage crossborder trade and commerce would be to waive customs duties for several years, thereby creating a free trade area in Kashmir. resources could become survival issue for the population an India and Pakistan in the coming ears.
Governance Just as there are many opportunities to promote people-to-people contact, so there is wide scope for enhanced coordination between local government and official institutions, especially regarding public administration, on both sides of the LOC. Local Government Consultations: The Working Group Report suggests establishing a Joint India-Pakistan Parliamentary Committee to foster greater parliamentary exchanges and address issues of common interest in Kashmir. For instance, joint local
Epilogue Ø 34 × October 2008
government working parties could explore trade and tourism issues. Combating terrorism: A Joint Mechanism on Terrorism met for the first time in March 2007. Its Indian and Pakistani members agreed to exchange specific information to help investigations and prevent violence and terrorism in both countries. In a meeting in June 2008, fresh information was shared by the two countries, and it was agreed that they would “continue to work to identify counter-terrorism measures [and] assist in investigations through exchange of specific information for preventing violence and terrorist acts. Many skeptics predict an early demise for this initiative, but at present the usefulness and longevity if the joint mechanism on terrorism are both difficult o predict. Military-Military programs: Given that the militaries in India and Pakistan play important political roles and maintain a large presence in the area of the LOC, measures to promote friendly contact between the two militaries would greatly improve the atmosphere. Exchanges of military bands, the staging of sporting events involving military personnel from both countries and similar measures merit exploration.
Liberalization of the travel Regime A close look at one particular aspect of softening the LOC —liberalizing the travel regime —shows the kind of opportunities that exist for pragmatic reforms. Most of these reforms would be modest and piecemeal, but their cumulative impact could be very significant. The Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus service, resumed in April 2005, has
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continued to ply between the two cities despite threats from militants. There is near-unanimous support for the bus service. Many respondents to our survey, especially local journalists who also work for foreign agencies such as Voice of America and the BBC, commented that the bus service between Muzaffarabad and Srinagar has done more than any other measure to change the mindset of people in AJK. The opening of additional crossing points has built upon this positive development. One respondent, who traveled by the first SrinagarMuzaffarabad bus, which took a very circuitous route, told the interviewer that the opening of the Tertiary Note crossing point had reduced his journey from Muzaffarabad to his village in J&K from about nine hundred miles to just over one hundred. There is a strong demand among the local population for the opening of more crossing points. However, several problems need to be addressed if the bus service is to be made really effective. After the earthquake in October 2005, the two governments had decided to open five more crossing points, but only three were inaugurated and, as of August 2008, only two are functional. For example, the crossing point at Tata Pani (in the Poonch-Kotli sector) is officially open, but no visitor has used this crossing point during the last seven months. The limited number of crossing points is not the only impediment to crossborder travel, nor indeed the primary one. Instead, the administrative and security protocols governing travel across the LOC are largely responsible for limiting movement. The number of passengers traveling on buses remains very low chiefly because of the
stringent conditions imposed by Pakistan and India on visitors wishing to obtain travel documents. In the first place, only members of divided families are permitted to travel. Even among such families, only those having near relatives (i.e. parents or children)on the other side of the LOC are issued travel documents. Visits to more distantly related kin are not allowed. Second, the processing of the applications takes an extraordinarily long time because of highly complex procedures, including close scrutiny by security and intelligence agencies on both sides of the LOC. Many applicants are refused permission. For example, between April 7, 2005, and August 30, 2007, the government of AJK sent a total of 4,114 applications to the government of J&K for clearance to travel to Srinagar through the ChokothiUri crossing point, but only 1,254 were approved. Similarly, the government of AJK received a total number of 3,938 applications from the government of J&K for permission to visit AJK using the same bus route, but only 1,070 passengers arrived from Srinagar in AJK. During this period,6,558 applications were sent to the security agencies for clearance, but travel documents were issued in only 4,114 cases. The restrictions on travel and the cumbersome and slow-moving application process have dampened Kashmiris ' enthusiasm for traveling. If that enthusiasm is to be rekindled, the following pragmatic steps need to be taken. Expand Eligibility: Eligibility to travel should be extended to other categories of travelers such as tourists, persons requiring medical treatment, traders, and even dissident political leaders. As
Epilogue Ø 35 × October 2008
noted earlier, Pakistani government officials are totally prohibited from traveling across the LOC, which conveys a strongly negative message to the local population. Members of Kashmiri families who crossed the LOC from J&K to AJK after the militancy accelerated in the 1990s should —after due scrutiny —also be allowed to visit their relatives or move back to India. Simplify permit procedures: One way to simplify and shorten the process of obtaining travel documentation would be to institute a visa system, with each traveler being issued a visa at the border upon production of satisfactory proof of identity and residence. Another alternative would be to institute a system in which any application not decided within a certain amount of time would be deemed to be approved. Many respondents suggested that the power to issue travel permits should be delegated to the respective state governments and local officials (see below). However, this idea —like the ideas advanced above—will be accepted only if political relations between India and Pakistan improve to the extent that some degree of mutual trust develops. Simplify application Requirements: Applicants for a travel permit must submit multiple copies of several documents. This procedure is so complex and time consuming that most respondents think it is easier to travel on passports. Many respondents proposed restoring the procedure used during the 1950s, when proof of state domicile was considered sufficient for issuing travel permits. There was no categorization of
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applicants, and anybody could cross the LOC (then the Cease-fire Line) to visit close relatives. Other respondents suggested that a local Kashmiri document should be issued to all Kashmiris and that this document should be sufficient to enable its holder to cross from one side of the border to the other. A small number of respondents also suggested that J&K residents be given dual citizenship, which would enable them to visit the other side without any special travel documents. Liberalize Permit Characteristics: Granting longer-term, multiple-entry permits to traders and businessmen, while exempting them from the obligation to report to the police after entering India or Pakistan, would greatly facilitate trade and commerce across he LOC. Issuing group visas to traders, tourists and cultural delegations would ease the burden on both sides ' bureaucracies. A scheme for issuing travel documents on a priority basis in emergency cases (e.g., for medical reasons or in case of family emergencies should be instituted on humanitarian rounds. Localize Permit Processing: Permits normally take three to four months to be processed, because each case has to be cleared by the intelligence and security agencies of the two countries. In some cases, the process can stretch on beyond a year. Such delays and the prospect of intrusive investigations by the intelligence agencies discourage many eligible people from applying. Respondents said they resented this system and wanted the procedure entrusted to the state authorities, which could handle cases much more
quickly. If the state governments were to take charge, they would be able to work directly with one another, which would promote greater understanding and trust between the two parts of Kashmir. These working relationships between the administrations in AJK and J&K could become the basis for cooperation in trade and commerce, and could evolve further into joint efforts to maintain security and combat sabotage and terrorism.
are fought, the suspicions and tensions that exist within and between the various parts of Kashmir must be addressed and the voice of the Kashmiris on both sides of the LOC must be heard and accorded due weight. As all sides are coming to recognize, the present borders cannot be changed, but they can be made more porous and larger measure of self-governance evolved to J&K and AJK.
Some respondents to the survey said that they would prefer a system in which visas are issued by local police at border posts, as opposed to the current
This report has offered a wide range of recommendations for softening the LOC that presently divides Kashmir. It is important, however, to prioritize these recommendations and to first pursue those short-term measures that have a prospect of immediate success, such as a relaxation in travel arrangements. An incremental approach must be adopted, one that dovetails the introduction of individual measures into the larger process of confidence building between the two countries. A series of initial successes would give momentum to the peace process and set the stage for longer-term measures, such as cross-border development projects. The emphasis has to be on implementing decisions taken, rather than on adding to these decisions.
As all sides are coming to recognize, the present borders cannot be changed, but they can be made more porous. system of lengthy and elaborate visa applications that are decided by the militaries on both sides.
Conclusions The conflict in Kashmir is complex and multifaceted. As Praveen Swami, an Indian journalist, has noted, “What we call the Kashmir problem is in fact several problems, for which Jammu and Kashmir is only a stage. Among other things, the problem involves irreconcilable ideas about the basis of nationhood, a crisis of religious and ethnic identity, and the still-far-fromspent forces that led to the partition of India. For jihadi groups and their supporters in Pakistan's establishment, the war in Kashmir is merely part of an even-larger war, one between Islam and unbelief. If Kashmir is to stop being an arena within which these larger battles
Epilogue Ă˜ 36 Ă— October 2008
No steps, whether short term or long term, can be taken until the tensions between India and Pakistan erode. This will not happen suddenly. The reality is that India-Pakistan relations cannot be dramatically improved over the short run, nor can all their outstanding problems be resolved quickly. Unrealistic expectations that progress in making borders irrelevant in Kashmir will be swift and that India-Pakistan relations will rapidly improve could lead to frustrations. Moreover, the task of making borders irrelevant in Kashmir
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cannot be considered in isolation from ongoing efforts to do the same thing elsewhere along the international border between India and Pakistan (for instance, road and rail links are being reestablished in the Rajasthan area). Yet while the glacial progress of the peace process to date has disheartened even inveterate optimists, there is reason to believe that a brighter future is within reach. In the first place, the process could certainly be accelerated if the leaderships of the two countries were to summon the necessary political will. In the second place, as noted earlier in this report, the belief has seeped into the governing elites of both India and Pakistan that the Kashmir issue can be resolved only by negotiation, not by armed conflict and not by the use of insurgents. Despite the domestic problems confronting Pakistan since elections in March 2008 brought an uneasy coalition into power, the dialogue aimed at improving India-Pakistan relations and resolving the Kashmir problem has continued on track, including efforts to improve relations across the LOC. The top brass of the Pakistan Army, who will continue to shape Pakistan policy toward Kashmir and India, seem to have realized that the normalization of relations with India is in their own interests. More specifically, the Pakistan Army needs to stabilize the deteriorating situation in the tribal areas along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border; if it were to revive its usual confrontation with India, it would get caught in a two-front conflict. The major opposition parties in Pakistan, except for some Islamic fundamentalist groups, are not opposed to exploring an amicable solution to the Kashmir
problem. They are also not in favor of playing the “jihadi card” in Kashmir at a time when fundamentalist militancy has become the target of almost universal disapprobation. The general political mood in India since the recent elections in Pakistan has been one of cautious optimism tempered with watchfulness regarding Pakistan's unfolding policy toward Kashmir. Initial statements from Pakistan's new government regarding Kashmir and the India-Pakistan peace process were generally supportive; the key issue remains whether the Pakistan Army or the civilian leadership will dominate policymaking on Kashmir and India-Pakistan relations. An increase in border incidents along the LOC and militant attacks within J&K has been noticed but has been attributed to the usual seasonal variations in the level of violence and the proximity of state elections in J&K. If the political climate in India and Pakistan offers some reason for optimism about the peace process, developments on the international stage are decidedly encouraging. The United States is greatly interested in the success of the peace process overall and in efforts to make borders irrelevant in Kashmir, because renewed confrontation along the LOC would distract both countries, particularly Pakistan, from supporting the U.S.-led war on terror. The United States also now has a physical military presence in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The United States is strengthening its strategic partnership with India and has designated Pakistan as its most-favored non-NNATO ally. Both countries, therefore, might well appreciate U.S. facilitation of their peace process and of a resolution of the Kashmir dispute.
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Washington is generally supportive of the bilateral India-Pakistan peace efforts but has not sought to involve itself in the nitty-gritty of negotiations and thus has not focused on measures such as making borders irrelevant. Over the past few years, China's attitude toward India and Pakistan's rivalry and their dispute over Kashmir has changed; where once China favored Pakistan, now it seeks to maintain equidistance from both countries. China's motives for this shift can be found in its need to prevent tensions and instabilities in Kashmir and Afghanistan from spilling over into Tibet and Sinkiang, and in its concern to ensure peace and tranquility on its southern periphery. Sino-American relations have transformed themselves since the end of the Cold War into a partly collaborative and partly competitive pattern—a pattern that seems likely to crystallize in the evolving international system. For the first time, however, all the major world powers —the United States, China, Russia, Japan and the European Union —have individual and collective economic and strategic interests in promoting the normalization of India-Pakistan relations. None of them wishes to foment the Kashmir dispute, although they might not find it possible to mediate or promote its resolution. This is, therefore, a propitious time for India and Pakistan to explore the ideas discussed in this report for making borders irrelevant in Kashmir. While international actors can help to maintain a positive climate for the peace process, the main responsibility for making that process succeed rests with India and Pakistan themselves.
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Poonch-Rawlakote
The Road Much Traveled, Less Visited KD Maini Mired in controversies and bogged down with suspicion, as the cross-LoC trade is finally okayed, the road which connects 63 per cent of the all divided families between two parts of Jammu and Kashmir is eagerly awaiting a truck terminal.
A
fter the ceasefire of November 23, 2003 on the Line of Control, the beginning of fortnightly bus service on April 7, 2005 on the Jehlum Valley road and on June 20, 2006 on the Poonch Rawlakote road, the duty free cross LoC trade between the two parts of Jammu and Kashmir shall be the third most important Confidence Building Measure of the recent history of conflict. Trade, as keenly desired on both sides, will not only help in creating peaceful atmosphere, restoring the trust and confidence in each other but also open the doors of economic development and prosperity of the people living in both parts of Jammu and Kashmir. After the Amarnath Shrine land row and the happenings of August 11, in Kashmir in which a prominent Hurriyat leader along with number of persons was killed while leading a symbolic march towards Muzzafrabad, the Indian External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee had stated that India had already forwarded a proposal to Pakistan for opening the cross LoC trade to begin from October 1, 2008. In the light of the statement of the foreign minister, a high level central team headed by Chief Secretary S.S Kapur visited Salamabad and Kaman Post on 6 September to review the
arrangements of truck service on Srinagar-Muzafrabad road. The high level team was also scheduled to visit Chakkan Da Bagh Tetrinote crossing point in Poonch on September 7. However due to bad weather the team could not land at Poonch but discussed the proposal of cross LoC trade via 46 kilometer long Poonch Rawlakote Road with the state authorities and accorded clearance for creation of infrastructure facilities for truck service. Accordingly Poonch district authorities identified 45 Kanal piece of land near Rangar nallha for truck terminal station. This terminal will have the capacity of stationing, loading and unloading of 40 trucks at a time. The site is located exactly on Poonch Rawlakote Road at a distance of 9 Kilometer from Poonch town and 3 Kilometer ahead of crossing Point on the LOC. The complex shall comprise of export examination hall, godown, strong room, cargo X ray machine room, custom office and Ancillary rooms for loaders, drivers, staff personals etc. This project shall cost Rs. 15.04 crores. It is astonishing that 90% work of temporary terminal station at Salamabad in Uri Muzzafrabad road has been completed but the work on Truck
Epilogue Ă˜ 38 Ă— October 2008
terminal station at Rangar Poonch is yet to start. Therefore lot of dissatisfaction is emerging among the public because it was expected that cross LOC truck service shall start simultaneously from Poonch and Srinagar. As per ground realities Poonch Rawlakote Road is more suitable most appropriate and the shortest route between the two parts of Kashmir as compare to Srinagar Muzafrabad route, because this route is passing from the heart of Pakistan Administered Kashmir (PAK) and directly linking six districts the LOC. Originally Poonch Rawlakote Road was conceived by Raja Jagat Dayal Singh of Poonch Principality in 1938 who had passed orders for the construction of this road. However the Raja died in 1940 and Poonch came directly under the control of Kashmir Darbar. Therefore the construction of this road was delayed till 1943 when fair weather road was opened for traffic. From 1943 to 1947 Poonch Rawlakote Road was used more for trade than passenger traffic. In those days Rice, Maize, Garlic, Chilies and other eatable items were transported from Poonch to Rawlakote which was the main marketing centre of these items. During the turmoil of 1947 most part of Poonch principality had fallen into the hands of
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/kU;okn THANK YOU - WE CHERISHED YOUR VISIT
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RAWALAKOT
LoC crossing point at Chakkan Da Bagh, Poonch
rebels and tribesmen who were operating under the supervision of P a k i s t a n a r m y. U n d e r t h e s e circumstances Rawlakote town was vacated on 14 November 1947 by Colonel Hiranand Dubey of State forces when he along with a contingent of force and a caravan of 10 thousand refugees had left Rawlakote for Poonch. from November 1947 till 7 November 2005 there was no people to people contact between both the parts of Kashmir in Pocnch area. The Poonch Rawlakote Road remained suspended for about 58 years; it was only after the earthquake of 2005 when relief and rehabilitation centre was established at Kanchàman Post on 7th
The Poonch Rawlakote Road remained suspended for about 58 years; it was only after the earthquake of 2005 when relief and rehabilitation centre was established at Kanchàman Post th on 7 November 2005 for exchange of relief material and meeting of divided families on humanitarian grounds. Later on this route was replaced by Poonch Rawlakote Road on 2th June 2006.
Epilogue Ø 39 × October 2008
November 2005 for exchange of relief material and meeting of divided families on humanitarian grounds. Later on this route was replaced by Poonch Rawlakote Road on 2th June 2006. At the time of inauguration of fortnightly bus service from Poonch the UPA Chairperson Sonia Gandhi had offered Pakistan for more CBM's on the LOC including trade and tourism but Pakistan government was reluctant and non cooperative for cross LOC trade due to certain reasons. Therefore during last 28 months only divided families could travel across the LOC, even than this CBM has created very congenial atmosphere in both the parts of Kashmir.
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As per the experience of two and half per litre. The guests of PAK after visiting shall prefer to transport the go6ds from years, Poonch Rawlakote Road have Poonch and Rajouri carries bundles and Poonch Rawlakote Road which is only 46 become the prime route between the bags of umbrellas, torches, clothes, kilometer long rather than Srinagar two parts of Kashmir because it is electronic goods and eatable items. Muzzafrabad road which is 173 centrally located and 63% divided These items can be exported to PAK kilometre long upto Muzaffarabad, families belongs to the regions from from Poonch and Jammu, Since Jammu is industrious city and where this road is passing. The fact is producing most of electronics and steel revealed from the passengers who items, which can directly be supplied Basmati rice of Jammu Maize of Poonch traveled during this period. As per the through Poonch Rawlakote Road. and Rajouri electronic goods, official figures 4836 persons had crossed Because the traders of PAK all prefer to readymade garments toys and steel the LOC from Poonch Rawlakote React buy these items from Jammu instead of items manufactured in Jammu can be during last 28 months while only 3674 Kashmir and carry these goods through exported to the other part of Kashmir persons cross the LOC via Srinagar Poonch Rawlakote Road except fruits very easily from this road. There is a Muzaffrabad road in 41 months. Even in arid Handicrafts items. great demand of cotton cloth Khan this figure of 3674, a significant Suits, Pashawri chappal, Karakulli Cap percentage of passengers have been and crockery items in Poonch Rajouri After the opening of 169 Kilometer from Jammu province, Poonch-Srinagar Mughal road, particularly from districts of COMMODITY PRICE the traders of Kashmir valley Rajouri and Poonch. Therefore Poonch Rawalkote shall also prefer their business Rs. 21 Rs. 65 the frequency of bus service Sugar from Poonch-Rawlakote road Rs. 298 Rs. 475 a c r o s s L O C f r o m Po o n c h Cement Bag instead of Jhelum Valley road Rs. 150 Rs. 275 Rawlakote road have been Mutton because by this way they will Rs. 85 Rs. 195 increased and fixed at weekly Mustard Oil be able to supply fruit directly Chicken Rs. 70 Rs. 120 basis from September 2008 to six districts of PaK. The other Rs. 20 Rs. 45 keeping in view the more Tomato factor of trade is the similarity Onion Rs. 12 Rs. 33 pressure of passengers on this of language between the Desi Ghee Rs. 170 Rs. 260 road. people of PaK and Pir Panchal Refined Oil Rs. 80 Rs. 145 region. Since 90% people on the In the modern world trade is other sides speak Pahari and and Kashmir valley which are available considered the father of all the Gojri languages therefore the traders on the other side of LOC. The people of relations. The opening of Poonch of PaK shall like to have their links with this side are fond of natural salt of Rawlakote road for trade shall further predominant Pahari and Gojri speaking Pakistan which can also be imported via strengthen the relations between the traders of this side. Poonch Rawlakote Road on very cheap people and boost the economy on both fright charges. the sides. More avenues shall be There is a need of completion of truck available for commercial ventures. The terminal station on Poonch Rawlakote These items can be sold in the markets persons visiting Poonch from across the Road at earliest; restoration of telephone of Jammu province. The cross LOC trade LOC tells that the rates of essential link with the marketing centers on other is beneficial only if there items are commodities in Pakistan Administered side and inclusion of the representatives transported through Poonch Rawlakote Kashmir are far higher than this side. of Poonch and Rajouri based Beopar Road , because this route is directly The rate list of Rawlakote bazaar Mandals in the delegations because linking six districts on the other side of indicates that sugar is sold at the rate & ultimately at grass root level these LOG namely, Mirpur Bhimber, Koli, 65 per Kg, Basmati rice at the rate of traders have to deal with their Plandri Bagh and Rawlakote. On 130 per Kg, cement bag at the rate of Rs counterparts on the other side. The contrary to this Srinagar — Muzzafrabad 475, Mutton at the rate of Rs 275 per Kg. prospect of Poonch, Rawlakote Road for road is linking only Muzzafrabad Mustard oil at the rate of Rs. 195 per Kg, cross LoC trade is appearing brighter than district. The traders of PAK districts and Kerosene Oil at the rate of Rs. 70 the other routes.
Epilogue Ø 40 × October 2008