EPILOGUE NOVEMBER 2008

ISSN 0974-5653

Jammu, November 1, 2008 / Vol 2 / Issue 10 || Price Rs. 15 || Postal Registration No. JK-350/2007-09 || www.epilogue.in

JAMMU & KASHMIR ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS

CHALLENGE : 2008

NEW ERA : LoC is Line of Commerce

Exclusive Interviews : Raja Zulqarnain Khan, President, PaK Zulfikar Abbasi, President Muzaffarabad CCI

DIALOGUE

Salman Haidar Former Foreign Secretary

Managing Temples Preventing Shrine Tragedies

Mata Vaishno Devi Management Shows The Way

Shivkhori

Jammu

IN TOUCH WITH THE DIVINE

J&K Tourism

Akshara-08

Paying obeisance can be a soul lifting experience at Shiv Khori, the famous Cave shrine of lord shiva situates 80 Kms west of Katra (Vaishnodevi) About 100 meters in length the cave is shaped as a damroo of lord shiva - wide at the two ends and narrow in the middle. Besides the self made lingam, the cave abounds with a number of otther natural objects having resemblance with Goddess Parvat_Ganesha and Nandigan

Jammu : Tel : 0191-2548172, Fax : 2544842 www.jktourism.org or E-mail at : jkdtourism@yahoo.co.in, dtj@jktourism.org

Epilogue because there is more to know

CONTENTS

www.epilogue.in Editor Zafar Iqbal Choudhary Consulting Editor D. Suba Chandran Associate Editor Irm Amin Baig Designs & Layout Keshav Sharma

Mailing Address PO Box 50, HO Gandhi Nagar, Jammu

J&K Assembly Elections

CHALLENGE :2008 Volume 2, Issue 10, November 2008

Edited, Printed, Published and Owned by Zafar Iqbal Choudhary.

Published from : Ibadat House, Madrasa Lane, Near Graveyard, Bathindi Top, Jammu, J&K 180012 and Printed at : DEE DEE Reprographix, 3 Aikta Ashram, New Rehari Jammu (J&K)

Election 2008

18 20 22 24 26

The Challenge of 2008

News Wrap J&K Stories

6

Dialogue Salman Haidar

16

Report LoC Trade Interviews

32

Zulfikar Abbasi

34 35

Special Feature Managing Temples

38

Manoj Kumar Dwivedi

Valley Scenario Jammu Scenario

Comment Kashmir Train

Ladakh Scenario

C. Udhay Bhaskar

Answers To Some Most Frequently Asked Questions

Columns Days Gone By

45 47

Prof. Jigar Mohammad

Srinagar Sentiments

53

Syeda Afshana

Vision From Valley

55

Prof Noor Ahmed Baba

Ladakh Heritage

Disputes, if any, subject to jurisdiction of courts and competitive tribunals in Jammu only.

Price : Rs 15

3 4 5

Raja Zulqarnain Khan

IN FOCUS Phones & email Office : +91 191 2493136 Editorial: +91 94191 80762 Administration: +91 94190 00123 editor@epilogue.in editor.epilogue@gmail.com subscription@epilogue.in

Prologue Letters to the editor Who Said What

Dr. Sonam Wangchuk

For more News, Views & Analysis Log on to www.epilogue.in Epilogue Ø 1× November 2008

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P R O L O G U E FROM THE EDITOR

Sorry For 2002

Zafar Choudhary

O

n august 15, 2002 the then Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee made a mention of Jammu and Kashmir elections in his independence day speech from the ramparts of the Red Forte. His promise to the people of Jammu and Kashmir a free, fair and impartial electoral exercise carried a meaning and commitment to the restoration of public faith in institutions of democracy. Accolades for Vajpayee started pouring in not only from Jammu and Kashmir but also from far and wide places like US and Europe. Kashmir issue is complex and deeply embedded in the partition history of this subcontinent. But till 2002 denial of democratic space through alleged electoral malpractices at behest of New Delhi was considered as a trigger to the post-1989 separatist movement and militant violence.

Independent poll observers dropped in from different parts of world and the elections were held under an international monitoring, though not officially recognized by the Election Commission or the Government. National Conference lost power after a long rule spreading over two decades. Its Chief Ministerial candidate lost election at family's long held turf. Mirwaiz Umar Farooq of Hurriyat Conference described Omar Abdullah's loss as his loosing the Jamia Masjid of which he is the head priest by way of a dynastical order. Around three dozen hitherto little known or unknown faces made their way to the legislative assembly. Neither separatists, nor Pakistan or any body else had anything to say on credibility of elections.

International community complimented India for giving people of Jammu and Kashmir a fair chance to vote. Through this exercise a stage was set for a credible peace process to address the Kashmir

issue. Through these elections peoples got a reassurance of their right to elect a representative of their choice. The one they actually vote for. The government thus formed symbolized the urges and aspirations of the people and carried responsibility of addressing genuine grievances falling in its constitutional ambit. Unfortunately, the experience in the following years was not the one people had expected. An internally competitive rag-tag coalition government utilized all these years not only to undo the consolidated advantages of 2002 elections but also damaged the prospects for a future political course. It is not about blaming one political party or the other, one individual or the other. The entire spirit of the coalition arrangement largely failed to look beyond the respective electoral constituency interests while being fully aware of the importance of elections which returned them to power. Six years later, the electoral battle of 2008 has been launched in a completely hostile atmosphere when gulf between Kashmir and India and within three regions of the state is wider than ever. This reflects upon the work of leadership –in State and at Center –over past six years. Our present issue examines the scenario in which assembly elections 2008 are being held. Two forthcoming issues will bring more reports from the ground. Meanwhile our thanks are due to Prof Rekha Chowdhary for her enormous contributions in shaping up this issue of Epilogue. Thanks are also due to Pawan Vivek and Avineet Prashar of the UGC-SAP at Department of Political Science, University of Jammu for their compilation of the election data.

Feedback : Zafarchoudhary@epilogue.in

Epilogue Ø 3× November 2008

Epilogue because there is more to know

EPILOGUE aims at providing a platform where a meaningful exchange of ideas, opinion and thoughts can take place among the people and about the people of Jammu & Kashmir. The attempt is to research, investigate, communicate and disseminate information, ideas and alternatives for the resolution of common problems facing the state and society of Jammu & Kashmir and in the context of their significance to South Asia as a whole.

We welcome contributions from academics, journalists, researchers, economists and strategic thinkers.

We would also like to encourage first-time writers with the only requirements being a concern for and the desire to understand the prevailing issues and themes of life in Jammu & Kashmir Contributions may be investigative, descriptive, analytical or theoretical.

They may be in the form of original articles or in the form of a comment on current events. All contributions have to be neatly typed in double space and may be sent to the address given alongside or e-mailed to the editor.

While the editor accepts responsibility for the selection of the material published, individual authors are responsible for the facts, figures and views in their articles.

Mail your letters to editor@epilogue.in

Win

Write to the editor for your six-month free subscription of Epilogue magazine. We are giving away prizes for the best letters we receive. The writer of the best letter of the month gets six-month free subscription of Epilogue Magazine. Reward does not end here.

Writer can also recommend names of ten friends, relatives or institutions to get one complimentary copy each of the next issue.

Letters should preferably be related to the stories covered in the magazine. They may be edited for clarity and space. Mail your letters to letters@epilogue.in or editor.epilogue@gmail.com

Alternative Route ?

The last issue of the EPILOGUE covering LOC trade is a significant document. Not only the cover story in fact even the analysis conducted by the team of epilogue deserves appreciations, I agree with Mubeen Shah, President CCI, Kashmir ( In his interview, Epilogue Oct 2008) on his demand of an alternative route for the valley, since the National Highway of Jammu and Kashmir is the only life line of the people of the valley therefore it is justifiable to demand an alternative route, but there should not be any divide and politics between the business communities of the two regions of the state.

Vineet Dugal Defence Colony, New Delhi

Lacking in research Making borders irrelevant (Epilogue, October 2008) was an interesting issue

but it lacked many things on the subject. Though the USIP report was helpful in understanding the importance of cross-border relations but one would have expected more local research on the cross-LoC trade.

Readers have not been given to understand the exact mode of business, the volume of trade and future prospects. Since this trade is expected to be a continuous process the Editor may consider bringing out another special issue with comprehensive local research.

Basheer MK Kochi, Kerala

Tragedy of Poonch We are happy to see that Epilogue has taken note of Poonch's exclusion from the cross-LoC trade. KD Maini's story “Poonch-Rawalakote: The R o a d M u c h Tr a v e l l e d , L e s s Visited” (Epilogue, October 2008)

Epilogue Ø 4× November 2008

was perhaps the first coverage of this stretch of LoC trade as entire local and national media attention is on Srinagar-Muzaffarabad. We people live exactly on the Line of Control and have everything in common with people on the other side. It was great of governments of India and Pakistan that first they initiated a bus link between Poonch and Rawalakote and then launched the trade links but the attitude of local government and trade lobbies both at Jammu and Srinagar saddens us. People in Poonch are still unaware of the modalities of the cross-LoC trade and have no idea about their role in the whole process. We request you to highlight this aspect of the cross-LoC trade as w e f e a r c l o s u r e o f Po o n c h Rawalakote trade link.

Anil Bakshi Native of Poonch, now settled in Jammu

H E A R

A N D

H E A R

WHO SAID WHAT

In Verbatim ‘We are taking risk' N. Gopalaswamy, Chief Election Commissioner of India, while announcing election schedule for Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly on October 19.

Boycotting Elections is our democratic right and Indian Election Commission must ensure this.

Mohammad Yasin Malik, JKLF leader while launching anti-election campaign in Valley hours after J&K Assembly Elections were announced.

'My Father, Dr. Farooq Abdullah, who is also the patron of the party will be the Chief Ministerial Candidate' Omar Abdullah, President, Natioanl Conference during his first election speech in Kashmir. (Elections 2008)

With present infrastructure we can exchange gifts only.

Zulfiqar Abbasi, President, CCI, Muzaffarabad Chamber of Commerce and Industries (PaK), while addressing a gathering of traders in Jammu.

Situation in Kashmir is not conducive for elections. We are participating to prevent unscrupulous elements taking advantage.

Mehbooba Mufti, President PDP, while announcing participation decision ten days after the schedule was announced.

Epilogue Ø 5× November 2008

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J&K STORIES

REGIONAL DISSENT

Need for corrective measures in Jammu, Ladakh

T

hose who are from outside the political arena need to spare some time for the sake of the common man. The common man has right to information but he need be told what information is required by him. A check on the conventional leadership is needed to save the Jammu Region people from getting their innocence and simplicity exploited.

Of course the people of J&K in general are to be saved from the exploitation that the leaders have been aiming at in the name of religion and region. People of J&K in general and the people of Jammu Region in particular have many questions for their leaders to answer. The people (majority living in vast far flung and remotely connected areas) of Jammu Region have been feeling themselves pushed to the wall.

The Jammu based political leaders of parties in power have so far been very weak politically. No doubt the leadership at Delhi too did never encourage the Congress or National Conference or BJP or even PDP leaders from Jammu. Kashmiri leaders irrespective of their political affiliations have mostly stood united when ever it was the question of administrative and political interest of Kashmir Valley.

For rational distribution of development funds local administrative units do matter. A revenue district is most important administrative unit for this purpose. It was surely for this reason that Justice J. N. Wazir Commission had recommended in 1984 creation of three new districts in Jammu Region (Rajouri, Kishtwar and Samba) and only one new District in Kashmir Region (Bandipora). Wazir Commission recommendations were intentionally not implemented by the state leadership and those at New Delhi since only one new district was recommended for Kashmir region as against three new districts for Jammu region.

It was after 22 years a decision was taken by Congress government led by Ghulam Nabi Azad for reorganization of District Administrative Units in J&K. But Azad led Congress Government too worked no different than the Sheikh Abdullah Congress supported Government of 1979. In 1979 unilaterally Sheikh Abdullah government had created three new districts (Badgam, Pulwama and Kupwara) in Kashmir Valley even by splitting Srinagar District ( less than 3600 sq km area and mostly plain terrain) into two districts (Srinagar and Badgam).

Where as in 1979 even the so large districts like Doda (spread over 11691 sq Km area and all bad terrain) and Udhampur (4550 sq km area spread over backward areas and bad terrain) were over looked. Even Districts of Rajouri, Kathua and

Poonch of Jammu Division too were having substantial population living in far flung area with inadequate means of communication and bad terrain. And it was once again in 2006 that Jammu Division (Doda, Udhampur, Rajouri, Kathua, Poonch, Jammu, Kishtwar, Ramban, Reasi) was meted out with neglect. Now it was Congress lead Azad Government.

Against just one district as recommended by Wazir commission in 1984 four districts were given to Kashmir region. Jammu Region was also given four districts against three already recommended by Wazir Commission. The decision was termed as historic by those in the Political seat. So unfortunately even a race was set amongst local leaders of Congress, PDP, National

Epilogue Ă˜ 6Ă— November 2008

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J&K STORIES

Conference, JKNPP (particularly from Reasi, Samba, Kishtwar and Ramban) to earn credit for the decision taken by Azad government in the name of Wazir Commission Report. Whereas the fact was that Wazir Commission recommendations were in a way ignored by the Government. Even the so called intelligentsia of Jammu region did not feel it worth questioning those who rejoiced when Azad crossed all barriers of logistics and administrative norms by giving four districts to Kashmir region as against recommendations for only one..

Some non Congress leaders from Jammu were seen even celebrating “Jammu Mautsav “ for the creation of new Districts .They should have rather agitated against the injustice done by the government against Jammu Region.

May be some of those who rejoiced the injustice done to relatively poor people of backward areas of Jammu Region were looking for some berth in the ministry or entry to legislative council. And some of them when failed to get the toast, they started accusing the government. The hard efforts of the leadership of Kashmir Region succeeded to undo the good that the Wazir commission recommendations could do to Jammu Region. Whereas Kulgam, Ghaderbal and Shopian were considered for district status but the injustice was done to zones like Akhnoor, Basoli and Bani, some areas of Ladakh, etc.

Kashmiri leadership succeeded in getting 300 percent more than what Wazir Commission recommended for them. They had reasons to celebrate. Azad gave nine times more to Kashmir region than what he gave to Jammu region over and above the recommendations of Wazir Commission. Surely it was the commitment of Kashmiri leaders towards Kashmir Valley that did not allow the Farooq Abdullah, Mufti and Azad Governments to implement Wazir Commission report to raise the number of Districts in Jammu Region from six to nine and in Kashmir Region from six to only seven.

The Wazir Commission remained on job from November 12 1981 to January 3, 1984 to analyze and make recommendations. But it was so surprising that Ghulam Nabi Azad could reassess the whole issue in just half a year and finally order creation of 8 new districts as against only 4 recommended by Wazir Commission. Ghulam Nabi Azad tried to tactfully cover his unjust action in the name of Wazir Commission report. Some leaders from Jammu instead tried to help him earn some undue appreciations. The Kashmir valley has been brought at levels with Jammu by giving 10 districts as against 7 recommended by Wazir Commission.

Since the awareness is growing amongst the masses, in the times to come, it would have become very difficult to keep the seats in the legislative assembly for Jammu Region less than Kashmir Region had the number of Districts be more (9

in Jammu region and 7 in Kashmir region) in Jammu Region.

Section 50 of J&K Constitution has provided 14 elected MLCs (Member Legislative Council) to Jammu Region as against 12 elected MLCs to Kashmir Region in the Legislative Council.

But in 1995 Justice K. K. Gupta Delimitation Commission had confirmed it's earlier order of 1992 allocating 46 MLAs (Member Legislative Assembly) to Kashmir Region and only 37 MLAs to Jammu Region in total defiance to the provisions of J&K Representation of People Act 1957. This delimitation order was no more than a simple formality to cover the Draft proposals as were earlier notified by Justice Mian Jalaluddin Delimitation Commission (Judge of J&K high court) vide notification date April 4, 1989. No one has so far answered the question that when Jammu Region has constitutionally more elected seats in the Legislative Council than Kashmir Region how could a Delimitation Commission be fair in allocating lesser assembly segments to Jammu region in the Legislative Assembly. More economic advantage would have come to Jammu Region over Kashmir had there been 9 Districts in Jammu and 7 in Kashmir.

One senior National Conference leader had argued that allegations for any unfair Delimitation can not be put on Kashmir Valley leaders since the 1995 Delimitation Commission was headed by a person belonging to Jammu Region. Under any fair Delimitation it has to be 45 to 46 MLAs for Jammu and only 37 to 38 for Kashmir. Name of Wazir Commission report has been used by Congress in an attempt to gather some political mileage in competition to National Conference and PDP in Kashmir Valley. Congress never bothered for Jammu region since the local leaders never stood united for the Regional cause.

And of course a still greater blow was inflicted on the fortunes of the people of Jammu Region in particular and the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes of J&K in particular by the National Conference dominated Legislative assembly by amending Section – 47 of the J&K Constitution through 29th Constitution Amendment Act of 2002. Through this amendment it has been constitutionally laid down that any new Delimitation can be done only after the census results of any census done after 2026 AD are known. and hence next delimitation could be only after 2031 AD .

Possibilities should be seen for amending the 29th amendment through an ordinance by Governor but Congress and National Conference have to work to medicate people of Jammu and Ladakh Region of injuries allegedly inflicted by them in the past.

Epilogue Ø 7× November 2008

-Daya Sagar

N E W S

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ART & CULTURE

CONFLICT FALLOUT

Kashmir’s Famous Open Air Theater

25 Making Bids At Life Every Week

T

he village Akingam in South Kashmir is mostly inhabited by the Band community (folk theatre artists).Natives of this small hamlet are famous for performing various popular dramatized anecdotes like "Raza Pather'', Angrez pather, Shikargah. This sort of open air village folk theatre managed by companies of professional players or minstrels depicts social ills and political tyranny.

"Folk art was an expression of popular sentiment, at certain point of time when people were subjected to lot of atrocities. It is the theatre which is socially relevant and artistically brilliant. Theatre is the medium of the actor who can captivate an audience, provoke it, inspire it and move it with tender human feelings," believes M.K Raina, renowned theatre personality.

The open air theatre had some unique qualities of engineering which helped the artists to perform without availability of microphones and other paraphernalia. Spectators could view performances from close quarters and observe even the minutest expressions of the artists.

Akhingam is one of the few villages in our Kashmir which has not let modernization take away its tradition. Acknowledging the enormous talent of Kashmiri youth which largely remains untapped theatre artist Hakim Javid felt that special drive is needed to create greater opportunities for these folk artists.

"Our talented folk artists needed a platform where they can showcase their skills. They must get an opportunity to travel worldwide to give performance in international festivals.

Taking pride in your culture is one thing, and working towards developing the same is another. Only few people get to the grass roots and help the locals take their art to the world.

Last year educational theatre workshop was organized by "Indian Foundation for the Arts" under the directorship of noted theatre personality M.K Raina. These folk artists aspire for the similar type of workshop this year as well "It was an opportunity for us to imbibe fresh lease of life to the folk theatre .It just rekindled our hopes. There is need to organize such workshops almost twice a year,'' says Rasool Band eloquently Folk theatre will grow as people become conscious of their right to use theatre as a medium of self expression. It has nothing to do with economic viability. It liberates spectators from their passivity, inspiring them to be in direct contact with the actors.

It also underlines the need to modernize the traditional theatre of Kashmir in a precise, effective and powerful way without disturbing its own aesthetics. It is possible to create a new folk form that retains the authenticity of the tradition yet can emanate the flavour of experimentation.

-Tanveen Kawoosa

S

uicide rates in Kashmir are surging as 25 cases of suicides and attempted suicide are reported every week at SMHS Hospital in Srinagar.

Reports say that suicides in Kashmir are more common among females, while males use deadly methods to attempt suicide. A research study by noted Psychiatrist Dr Arshid Hussain and a team of doctors reveals that females in higher age group show greater tendency of committing suicide, while as males who make successful attempts on their lives fall in the age group of 25 to 34 years.

The report further states that violent methods of suicide like cutting throats is a new phenomenon in Kashmir but such tendencies are present predominantly among people with history of schizophrenia and severe depression. Among Parasuicide cases 73% reported depressive disorder.

Furthermore it has been observed that suicide victims mostly consume drugs like benzodiazepines, tricycle antidepressants and phosphorous compounds. Among mental illnesses, depression is the common cause of suicide.

Majority of the suicide patients suffer from extreme depression that goes often undiagnosed and untreated. According to Dr Hussain 58% of suicide patients never receive psychiatric help.

"Psycho-social factors like traumatic stress, poverty, unemployment were found strongly associated with males who made successful attempts of suicide," he said.

The study says that domestic violence and multipletrauma are the biggest contributing factors toward suicides by females. Moreover, people addicted to alcohol, cannabis and tobacco are also prone to commit suicide, the study added. The study blames the present turmoil for "catalyzing" these tendencies in valleyites and attributes the rise in suicides to it though conceding there are other factors responsible as well.

The research study, Women and Children under the Armed Conflict, conducted by Educationist Dr A.G Madhosh for the National Institute of Public and Cooperation and Child development revealed that 80% of widows have higher tendencies of committing suicide especially owing to lose of only breadwinner and family breakups.

-Tanveen Kawoosa

Epilogue Ă˜ 8Ă— November 2008

N E W S

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J&K STORIES

SCHOOL EDUCATION

Over 60% Leaving Midway

C

ontrary to the state government claims about propagation of elementary education, the drop out rate of orphan children continues to rise at primary level in Kashmir.

In 1989 the drop out rate at primary level stood at 55%, while over the period of two decades it has jumped up to 60 to 70 percent.

Despite the state government's efforts to promote elementary education and ensure its accessibility to the poor, the immense poverty compels orphans to leave education halfway to eke out a living.

"Over the period of two decades, education of orphan children has received severe setback.

Although dropout rate is increasing at alarming rate, state government has failed to take holistic view of the educational needs of orphan children who live in penury," says noted educationist Prof Madhosh.

During mid 1990's more than 400 schools were gutted in the conflict and above 60 percent children, which mostly comprised orphans in the age group of 10 to 14 were deprived of education.

With the exponential increase in the number of these children-different research studies put the figure close to 80,000- the situation has turned grim.

Compounding all this is the psychological stress the turbulence has brought about. The feeling of uncertainity,danger and anxiety impaired the learning capacity of these children and consequently increasing the dropout rate.

According to noted lawyer and social activist AR Hanjura, even if most of orphans are living with their relatives, they are unable to procure proper education.

"After losing their parents, they are being continuously shifted from one relative to another. In some cases relatives hardly accept them as they fear the property rights of their own children may be superseded by orphans. Not to speak of receiving education, number of such children also reported maltreatment," reiterated Hanjura "When the government fails to provide support to these neglected children, the role of social activists is counted.

Unfortuantely, with 3000 NGO'S registered in Kashmir most of

them siphon grant money for their vested interests," he added Experts assert that the 2005 earthquake has aggravated the scenario and lent another blow to the education of these children owing to destruction of schools in remote areas falling close to line of control. With financial uncertainty looming over their heads, most of them lead a miserable life -Tanveen Kawoosa

Epilogue Ă˜ 9Ă— November 2008

N E W S

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J&K STORIES

GENDER TROUBLES

In Conservative Kashmir, Working Women Are A Harassed Lot

I

f Kashmiri women are storming in to every male bastion, they are also ending up paying a huge price for their ambition as significant number of sexual harassment incidents have come to fore especially at the hands of senior officers in government and private sector.

In 46.28% cases reported senior officers carried out harassment against their subordinate female employees, while in 42.28% cases, colleagues of equal status were involved in this bestial acts. These findings were revealed by noted sociologist Prof Bashir Ahmad Dabla who further asserted that almost 38.18 percent females face physical assaults,53% mental harassment and 10.85 reported that lewd remarks were yelled at them at workplace.

Sexual harassment of working women at workplace is a new trend in Kashmir but most endemic. Nevertheless; experts believe that such incidents are not brought in to limelight.

Dabla in his research has observed that only 17.14% females file complaints against offenders while majority of victims 82.85% do not report such incidents. Moreover, 50% cases reported that they were not satisfied with the action taken against the perpetrators.

"Such incidence are numerous in Kashmir yet victims never file any complaint against the perpetrators owing to cultural sensitivities, "said Shafat Ahmad, Advocate J K high court. However, he added that Supreme Court has recognized sexual harassment as human rights violation and gender based discrimination that affects women.

The court has also provided guidelines for employees to redress and prevent sexual harassment at workplace. Since this is new trend in Kashmir, people are not well acquainted with the intricacies of law.

However, he was quick to add that in different Indian states where such incidents have shown relentless growth the legislation has not brought much relief.

"When you actually deal with the cases and the inquiry process, nothing happens on ground against such incidents at workplace," added Shafat Dabla says the issue needs redress and can assume serious implication for women at large if they do not report such incidents.

Many working women in Kashmir allege that the action taken against the culprits sounds nothing more than eyewash to hide the stink which once out can shove some in to the abyss of ignominy.

"My boss used to coerce me to enter in to illegitimate relation .When I protested his behavior and reported the matter to higher authorities, they did not respond. I finally left the job," says Sabha Hameed(name changed) who worked in a private organization as a secretary.

These victims further allege that if they dare to raise voice against the perpetrators they are threatened and the promotions are delayed. Moreover, the matter is often hushed up and culprits go scoot free.

"In my eight years of service I have been working with assiduity and sincerity. nevertheless, my boss deliberately delayed my chances of promotion. It is because once I reported his misbehavior to higher echelons in the department who did not consider my case seriously. It seemed a time buying tactic to shield those who stand in danger of getting exposed. I cannot afford to leave the job owing to family problems," says Humaira Rashid, a clerk in Government department.

-Tanveen Kawoosa

Epilogue Ă˜ 10 Ă— November 2008

N E W S

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CONFLICT FALLOUT

PLACES & PEOPLE

Enormous Rise In Stress Related Cases

Turtuk : One Of Last Places On Earth Has Unique Features And Serious Issues

V

alley is registering increase in mental disorders among people with PTSD (Post traumatic stress disorder) taking enormous toll in females.

The study conducted in OPD of Government Psychiatric Hospital reveals that over the period of two decades, patients reported with mental disorders have increased from 1762 in 1990 to 80,000 in 2008.

According to doctors 62 percent of patients diagnosed with PTSD constitute females.

Admitting that there is manifold increase in the psychiatric patients noted Psychiatrist Dr Arshad Hussein said, "During 80s we used to examine 10 to 20 patients everyday in OPD. Now more than hundred patients visit the hospital. This is the tip of iceberg'' Dr Hussein explained that being emotionally sensitive Kashmiri Women are easily susceptible to PTSD, which is so rampant in Kashmir due to violence.

Sample of PTSD drawn from the OPD government Psychiatric hospital reveals that 20% of patients have been tortured, the close relatives of 35% were killed brutally in front of them and 30% had been injured in shoot outs.

Asserting violence was the root cause of PTSD,he maintained that social circumstances vis-à-vis turmoil makes women more predisposal to stress than their male counterparts.

Social factors come in to play when Women lose her only bread winner in the family. Majority of these patients have lost their family members in the turmoil, which has drowned them in to the vortex of problems. Struck by poverty ,women have to play a role beyond that of homemaker and resort to menial jobs to bring up their children,'' he emphasized.

Noted Educationist Abdul Gani Madhosh has made similar observations in his research study 'Women and children under the armed conflict in Kashmir' for the National Institute of Public Cooperation and child Development. The study highlights that 80% of the war widows suffer from severe trauma owing to their husbands death and break up of their family.

PTSD is an extreme reaction to the extreme stress and the patients suffering from the disease relive the traumatic event of and on through nightmare and disturbing memories disrupting their lives.

According to the Psychiatrists 70% of PTSD cases can be cured through prolonged medication however delay in seeking treatment is marring the chances of recovery.

Owing to its somatic effects mental illness is often perceived as a physical ailment. By the time patients approach doctors they have already been examined by quacks and other medical practitioners which minimizes the chances of recovery.

-Tanveen Kawoosa

T

urtuk, A land of Rocky Mountains, Glaciers, Streams and Apricot gardens, situated in Leh District of Ladakh region. The area was off the ancient Silk routes to Pakistan and Yarkand, access and

passage to it was difficult, till the opening of road traffic, both as late as 1985. The winters are long and hard (average record -16° C in Jan/Feb). The main crops cultivated are Barley, Maize, Blackbafut and Buckwheat, some vegetables and a variety of fruit like

Epilogue Ø 11 × November 2008

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men and 100 women. The literacy rate among women was Apricot,. Steep rocky slopes and sparse vegetation offer also very low. But that rate may have declined due to a limited possibilities for cattle rearing. Goats, Sheep, population growth higher than that of increased female poultry, Cows and Dzos, A cross breed of Cow and Yak, the education. Initially medical doctors were not always latter living only on high altitudes, are the only meagre available, now there is a Doctor, named Rashid. Who himself sources for meat, milk, cheese and butter. The Baltis are ENT Specialist and also a dispenser-cum-X-Ray Technician, mostly small in stature and tough survivors, their outlook named Ismail and its facilities include a gynae-theatre-cumbeing conditioned by a hard fight for existence in an labour-room, a ward with Six beds, a dispensary with laboverpowering high altitude environment. They were facilities, X-ray and ultrasound with generator, the doctors' Buddhists until their conversion to Islam in the 15th century, outpatient examination-room. They examine patients, belonging to the Shia sect of Noorbakshia order. The people make home-visits for purposes of health-education including speak mostly Balti, an archaic form of Tibeti. The narrative family planning counseling and promotion of immunization art has therefore a strong tradition in their culture, the and ante-natal tetanus injections, ORS and Iodized salt.

Kaisar saga or epos being the most prominent example of They also provide first-aid and carry out home deliveries, narrated literature. In the schools only Urdu and English are the clinic examines on average taught, which are also used in the 30 patients per day. offices after liberation from The Symptoms found in the area: A f t e r K a r g i l w a r, A r m y Pakistan in1971.

I began Project work in March· Unspecified weakness, pain, fever and introduced a school health programme and open Army August 2007 in Turtuk Area and headache Hospital, with a Lady Doctor, noticed that there were hardly any medical services for women · Respiratory tract, coughing, sputum, gradually visiting all the schools in Turtuk Area, entering into available, and especially no breathing difficulties (also tonsillitis, otitis agreements with the schools gynecologist for the entire area. media) Abdomen: vomiting, diarrhea, and the community, for general Family planning knowledge and services were practically nonstomache ache, swelling of the liver and check-up of all school children, including immunization and existant and birth/deliveries spleen, other disorders advice to parents for treatment were cared by relatives or or further diagnosis, where untrained dais; accordingly · Movement of limbs: pain, swelling and necessary ECG. X-Ray in case of fertility rates as well as related abnormalities of the joints, traumas suspected T.B, routine antimortality were exceptionally high worm treatment is given, in among women. Girls get married · Uro-genital pain, burning sensation when addition to health-education of around the age of 15 and women urinating, abnormalities in menstruation children, teachers and parents, have an average of over 10 and first-aid training to few pregnancies and raise about 8 · Skin/Hair: alos parasites, otitis external women to generate income and surviving children. The record · Visible malnutrition including anemia install a pride of self-help and deliveries to Ghulam Hassan's labour by their own hands, they wife 21 children, but none of are involved in assembling and them alive, except Mohammad giving the finishing touches to the benches under the Hassan. They love to have large families and consider every supervision of their technical training teachers. In Turtuk addition an added labour force, help them to earn money.

Area, the infectious diseases are most common, because of But, since family planning is promoted in Leh and the cold winters with badly heated accommodation. surrounding area, there is hardly any effect among the elder Malnutrition among women is prevalent, due to too many section of the area on religious ground, and where services pregnancies in quick succession. They lack high quality become available it is practiced after the four children by protein, iron, iodine and calcium. women, less by men. This requires not only availability of Perched high on India's mountainous borders with Pakistan, services, but quality medical after-care as near to the Turtuk is one of the last places on earth where a Nomadic patients as possible, to advise and treat in case of the usual community survives. When there is no wind the silence is side-effects and complications. Women share in addition to almost palpable. I tried to highlight health related Diseases their childbearing and rearing the hard physical labour in faced by the people of area, despite modern scientific the fields and around the house, despite their malnutrition, medicine and equipments in health department. and accordingly life expectancy among women are much lower than men (45/60 ratio), leading to a sex ratio of 115 -Ghulam Mehdi

Epilogue Ø 12 × November 2008

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BUSINESS & ECONOMY

Focus On Doubling Agriculture Credit

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fter a gap of more than 15 years, Primary Agriculture Credit Societies have been made eligible for financing. Out of 765 such cooperatives, 195 have been revived and made credit worthy. During the year 2007-08, PACS have advanced loans to the tune of Rs 1300 lakh to the members.

The Multi Purpose Cooperative Society (MPCS) Payeen Brengh, a small hamlet in Kokernag area, has been a success story. All the records of the society have been computerized with the emerging facility of accepting deposits from its members with the additional facility of SMS Banking.

The State signed the MoU on April 7, 2008 with NABARD on implementation of the revival package as

DARBAR ON MOVE

Seat Of Power Shifts To Warmer Jammu, Governor Stations His Men In Valley

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recommended by the Task Force headed by Prof. A Vaidyanathan. In the first instance 155 PACS and all the 5 Banks in Short Term Credit Structures shall be benefited.

The State has also furnished its response to the Government of NABARD on implementation of the recommendations for the revival of the Long Term Credit Structure (Vaidaynathan II). An amount of Rs 4300 crore has been found as the amount requiring recapitalization.

-Epilogue Newsroom

ith a small exception of Maharashtra where seat of power moves out of Mumbai for stint in Nagpur where the legislature houses is situated, Jammu and Kashmir is the only state in India which two Capitals –Srinagar in Summers and Jammu in winters. This practice has been on for more than a century and a quarter and the attempts to stall this have been resisted strongly in both regions.

This year, the Civil Secretariat, after its closure in Srinagar on October 31 will be reopening in Jammu on November 10. The Governor NN Vohra, who now rules the state in absence of an elected government, has, however, ensured that the Valley is not blanked out of administrative apparatus when the seat of power stays in Jammu for next six months. Vohra has ordered establishment of Winter Secretariat at Srinagar to monitor the functioning of the Administration and ensuring effective delivery of various services during the winter months. Assuring that he will be visiting Srinagar at least twice every month, Vohra has issued a roaster on rotational stationing of his Advisors the Valley headquarters.

The Winter Secretariat, which shall operate in the Civil Secretariat, Srinagar, shall comprise Special Secretary/ Additional Secretary, two Deputy Secretaries/Under Secretaries, two Stenographers, four Head, Senior and Junior Assistants and other staff. While all major departments have to move to the Winter Capital in full, most of the allied departments and directorates move in camps with their equal activities at both capitals.

Epilogue Ø 13 × November 2008

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Departments moving in full: All Departments of the Civil Secretariat including Governor's Secretariat, Personal Staff of the Advisors to the Governor, Director Estates, Department of Civil Aviation, Civil Secretariat Dispensary, Security staff of Civil Secretariat, Civil Secretariat Treasury, Executive Director, Rehabilitation Council of the Social Welfare Department; Financial Commissioner (including Joint Director Statistics in Camp); Director General of Police including CID Organization; Vigilance Commissioner; Chief Electoral Officer, J&K; Director General Prisons; Director General, Fire and Emergency Services; Director Information; Director General, State Motor Garages; Director, Hospitality and Protocol Department with the Catering Staff; Director Accounts and Treasuries; Director Employment; Director Forest Protection Force; Director General Youth Services and Sports; Director Technical Education; Director State Forest Research Institute; Director Tribal Affairs; Development Commissioner Power; Labour Commissioner; Principal Chief Conservator of Forests; Accounts Officer, G P Fund moving cell; Custodian General; Transport Commissioner; Assistant Director/Programme Officer AIDS Cell; Special Officer Auqaf; State Board of Technical Education; Advisory Board for Development of Gujjars and Bakerwals; Advisory Board for Development of Pahari Speaking People; J&K State Finance Commission; J&K State Electricity Regulatory Commission; J&K State Commission for Women; J&K Police Housing Corporation; One Man Forest Authority; Toshkhana Officer; J&K State Accountability Commission.

Departments moving in camps: Director Family Welfare MCH and Immunization; Director Indian System of Medicines; Director Economics and Statistics; Director Soil Conservation; Director Environment and Remote Sensing; Director Sericulture; Director of Stationeries and Office Supplies with marginal staff; Director Audit and Inspection; Director Horticulture (P&M); Director Handicrafts; Director Geology and Mining; Director Libraries; Director

Governor's men in Srinagar this winter · H. H. Tyabji: November 20-30 November and December 21-31, 2008 · Dr. Sudhir S. Bloeria, December 1 to 10 and January 1 to 10, 2009. · C. Phunsog, December 11 to 20 and January 11 to 20 2009.

Archive, Archaeology and Museum; Chief Architect; Project Chief IWDP, Hills, Forest Department; Nucleus staff of Commissioner Commercial Tax; Nucleus staff of Funds Organization; Gazette Section of J&K Government Press; Registrar Cooperatives; Subordinate Office of Science and Technology Department; Excise Commissioner, J&K with Skeleton staff; Inspector General of Police Railways; Inspector General of Police Crime; Director Social Forestry; J&K Service Selection Board with staff as determined by the Chairman Board of Professional Entrance Examination as per the staff to be determining by the Chairman; Chairman Pollution Control Board; Board of Unani Ayurvedic System of Medicine; J&K State Commission for Backward Classes; J&K Special Tribunal with marginal staff; Managing Directors of all PSUs with marginal staff; J&K Commercial Taxes Tribunal with skeleton staff; Director Rural Sanitation; DFO, Photo Interpretation Division (Forest Department) with marginal staff; J&K Khadi Village and Industries Board; J&K State Social Welfare Board; J&K Housing Board; Chief Wildlife Warden; Chairman of the Committee for monitoring and ensuring fairness of tests conducted by BOPEE; Chairman of the Committee for fixation of Fee structure of Professional Colleges in the State; Chief Engineer Commercial and Survey Wing alongwith Driver; J&K Academy of Art, Culture and Languages with 26 employees; Director Handloom Development Department; Relief and Rehabilitation Commissioner (Migrant); Directorate of Fisheries.

Epilogue Newsroom

BUSINESS & ECONOMY

Apiculture Promises Handsome Foreign Exchange

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aving setup a target of 1900 as the population of beekeepers for 2008-09 and 2200 for 2009-10 and with an existing 20000 number of the bee colonies in the valley, the Apiculture Development is expected to show an upswing in its graph.

The honey production in the valley, as per records, is also rising with 125 tonnes production registered in 2005-06, 215tonnes in 2006-07, 200 tonnes in 2007-08 and the targeted

production for the year 2008-09 is 300 tonnes and for 2009-10 is 350 tonnes. The export of honey was 100 MTs in 2005-06, 100 in 2006-07, 150 in 2007-08 and the target export for 2008-09 is setup at 200 MTs and for 2009-10 is 250 MTs. Despite certain limitations, Apiculture if pursued in systematic manner and duly regulated by the people associated with it, could improve the economy of a number of people.

Epilogue Ø 14 × November 2008

Epilogue Newsroom

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BUSINESS & ECONOMY

At Rs. 21.70Bn Business Co-Op Banks Settings New Trend

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ith a total business of Rs. 21.70 billion, the Cooperative Banks in Jammu and Kashmir have witnessed a sea change in their performance to improve the lot of the financial health.

Cooperative Banks have earned the distinction of taking a lead over all other nationalized banks in distribution of Kissan Credit Cards (KCCs). As on March 31, 2008, 45687 KCCs worth Rs. 65.89 crore have been issued.

The Baramulla Central Cooperative Bank has issued KCCs worth Rs. 25.30 crore while Jammu Central Cooperative Bank has issued KCCs amounting to Rs. 20.33 crore. The Baramulla Central Cooperative Bank has 66 per cent Credit Deposit Ratio in the state which is highest in the state.

The State Cooperative Bank (SCB) has deposits of Rs. 36444.42 lakhs, the Jammu Central Cooperative Bank (JCCB) of Rs.

69377.35 lakhs, the Baramulla Central Cooperative Bank (BCCB) of Rs. 17847.79 lakhs and Anantnag Central Cooperative Bank (ACCB) has deposits of Rs. 11294.65 lakhs.

The total business of the SCB, JCCB, BCCB and ACCB is Rs. 45217.00, Rs. 93765.00, Rs. 31761.77 and Rs. 22315.00 lakhs respectively. The Devika Urban Bank has a total business of Rs. 1455.00 lakhs, the Anantnag Urban Bank of Rs. 1978.76 lakhs, the Citizen Cooperative Bank of Rs. 28692.00 lakhs and KAMCO Bank Sopore has total business of Rs. 2277.85 lakhs.

With a total number of 207 branches, Cooperative Banks in the state give employment to 1617 persons. The Cooperative Banks have attempted to remain apace with other nationalized banks in the matters of computerization and ATM facilities.

Epilogue Newsroom

BUSINESS & ECONOMY

Flowers Enhancing Scenic Beauty, Boosting Economy

well.

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streams, lofty snow bound peaks and flowers of diverse varieties have been known worldwide to make Kashmir a heaven in miniature, lets hope, it also plays its role in adding to the prosperity of its people.

New and existing varieties of flowers having tremendous overseas and local market are being cultivated in various parts of this beautiful valley for bringing in prosperity for the farmers. With new industries coming up that are based on flowers as raw material, the obsession for growing flowers is on the high.

The last few years have witnessed a considerable surge in development of some world class gardens and floriculture centres in the valley. The “Tulip Garden and the Botanical Gardens” on the banks of Dal Lake have besotted many a tourist who visited them and now it is the turn of liliums to glue them.

With a total area of 168 hectares under cultivation for commercial floriculture in Kashmir, about 250 farm families are directly involved in this pursuit. The departments of Agriculture, Floriculture and Sheri-Kashmir University of Agricultural Science and Technology of Kashmir is providing ample technical support resulting in the generation of the average farm income to Rs. 5000- 10,000 per kanal.

Among other centres, the “Model Floriculture Centre” at Nuner Ganderbal is one such centre which has became a cynosure for many lovers of nature.

he Valley of Kashmir, famously known world over as a basket of flowers is catching up rapidly with production of flowers for commercial purposes as

In 2008, about 15 hectares of land were utilized for flower seed production, 28 for Gladioli cut flower production, 04 for production of loose flowers, 16 for production of other cut flowers and 01 hectares for production of cut flowers under cover. Similarly, 16 hectares of land utilized for production of flowering bulbs, 70 for production of aromatic crops and 18 for production of nursery plants.

The centre is established over an area of 8.5 hectares of land and has successfully generated revenue of Rs 15 lakhs in 2006-07 and Rs 25 lakhs in 2007-08. About 3.92 lakhs of Lilium bulbs were produced in 2006-07 and 5 lakh in 200708. Also 2.05 bulbs were distributed for plantation at various other places in 2006-07 and 3.5 lakhs bulbs in 2007-08. Also, 18.97 quintals of small bulbs were distributed for replantation during the year. The model floricultural centre is expected to help in boosting the tourism of the state, thereby, generating more revenues.

The green meadows and pastures, lively springs and

Epilogue Ø 1 5× November 2008

Epilogue Newsroom

D I A L O G U E SALMAN HAIDAR

India Is A Power

To Reckon With Internationally India’s former Foreign Secretary Salman Haidar was recently in Jammu to attend a conference. In an exclusive interview to Epilogue, Haidar says India’s Foreign policy has put the country in global power league. Excerpts : India has long been seen as yet another developing country with poor economy and faced with hundreds of its internal and external problems. Where do you locate the country at the global map today?

Such feeling about India at the international level is a thing of past. Today country has come into the strengths of its own and is commanding a greater respect world over. An inspiration for many in the region, India is now being seen as a vibrant success story, a key driver of economy and a disciplined State. Its road in Asia is evolving and the good feeling is that India is a country capable of its defence and is not being seen as an aggressive power.

People are now coming to us to collaborations and partnerships. Our fast growing economy is the main area of interest for many global powers. Many international powerful groupings like ASEAN are inviting India to partner with them. They want us in their quest for growth. The general perception about India is a desirable partner in economic growth and in broader political association.

Does Indo-US Nuclear deal make India more powerful at international level?

Of course, it does. But we should understand that it is India's well recognized power and strength at international level which makes powers like US to partner with us. It is not the (nuclear) deal which makes India powerful (in the particular context) it is the powerful India which attracts US for mutually beneficial partnership. That is the strength of India in world today.

Agreed, India has emerged as a powerful State. Does this status influence international perception on

Epilogue Ø 16 × November 2008

D I A L O G U E SALMAN HAIDAR

India's stand on Kashmir?

Well, this has to be seen in a wider context and evolutionary manner.

There were attempts to internationalise the issue when Kashmir was taken to the United Nations. Efforts were made by many global powers to dictate a solution for Kashmir. Particularly, America, Europe and China etc always tried to play an interventionist role. However, of late, there is a global understanding that Kashmir is purely a bilateral issue between India and Pakistan and should be allowed to the two countries to settle. Technically, the matter is still before the United Nations but there are no international attempts to intervene.

Why this change of mindset at international level? Does this stems out of growing diplomatic strengths of India.

India's diplomatic strength is just one part of this story. The fact, however, is that both India and Pakistan have demonstrated by their engagement in a meaningful dialogue that whatever issues are there they are between the two only and they have the will and courage to resolve their issues bilaterally. With their engagement, the process may be gradual, but the atmosphere in South Asia has largely changed for the better.

One can see Kashmir has long influenced India's foreign policy. Does this factor still continue?

Not any more. Disputes with neighbours are always cause of concern and often influence foreign policy matters (countries which endorse your

stands are friends and others not so).

India's troubles especially with Pakistan, with or without Kashmir as a cause, have been dampening factor and would assume quite a prime space in diplomatic activities. As long the dispute remains the fear of flare ups with old triggers continues.

India troubles especially with Pakistan, with or without Kashmir as a cause, have been dampening factor and would assume quite a prime space in diplomatic activities. As long the dispute remains the fear of flare ups with old triggers continues.

The good development, of late, is that all diplomatic roads going out of or coming into India are not through Kashmir. This has released more diplomatic space.

Growing warmth and an urge of peace and cooperation between India and Pakistan has allowed India to use its diplomatic energies on other issues like economic cooperation and political associations at international level.

The good development, of late, is that all diplomatic roads going out of or coming into India are not through Kashmir. This has released more diplomatic space. Growing warmth and an urge of peace and cooperation between India and Pakistan has allowed India to use its diplomatic energies on other issues like economic cooperation and political associations

Epilogue Ă˜ 17 Ă— November 2008

at international level.

How do you look at the Indo-Pak relations post-Musharraf?

There is a policy of continuity with change and both partners are moving in that direction. General Musharraf and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh developed a strong capacity to talk to each other which is an asset for any course of dialogue to continue in future. Pakistan has a lot of internal problems which we are well aware of.

The experience is that a sustained dialogue initiative has always suffered in its long term continuity. However, the indications coming from new civilian government in Pakistan are encouraging and promising. Hopes are there for a stronger course of dialogue.

Cross-Line of Control trade between two parts of Jammu and Kashmir is being given a lot of importance in context of peace process. Do you see this road leading to some mutually aspired destination?

Of course yes and this development deserve the importance it is getting.

Instead of being distant, India and Pakistan need to inch closer to each other. And when Kashmir can become a bridge between both, this development carries a lot of importance and meaning. There are many areas of cooperation. For example, Pakistan should have stakes in Iran's gas pipeline to India. These issues of trade and transit are of mutual importance benefit and should be explored further to minimise the irritants.

- Zafar Choudhary

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The Challenge Of 2008 Zafar Choudhary

Six years after New Delhi restored its credibility internationally by holding free and fair elections in Jammu and Kashmir, this time there is a challenge of legitimacy. Elections to Jammu and Kashmir legislative assembly have always been a matter of keen international interest as much as the Kashmir issue is. The secessionists and their supporters reject elections as farce and charade as they call for referendum to determine status of Kashmir. Though this is not a case in Jammu region where elections are welcomed as a festival and are contested keenly. With elections in Kashmir, New Delhi and mainstream political parties within the state seek to answer the referendum demand. More participation in elections means louder answer to the separatists. As state gets into full poll mode, the challenges of legitimacy are clearly much higher than ever. Even if the separatist campaign of boycott fails to have impact (which is unlikely) there are other factors also for disillusionment of voters. For their credibility and fairness the 2002 elections had raised the public expectations in democratic process and to a certain height. At one stage people, particularly in Kashmir Valley, had come to realize that along with separatist agenda mainstream politics too is worth practicing to the extent of having a government for running day to day processes of life. However, the coalition government –the outcome of 2002 elections –was the worst experiment for the people in almost all regions. Not that the previous government was too keen and clean but post-2002 public stakes in the government were far higher than ever. A dirty competitive politics within the coalition partners left very little for the public to look at the good that may have happened during their regime.

Phase

Assembly Segments

1 (Nov 17)

Gurez, Bandipora, Sonawari, Nobra, Leh, Kargil, Zanskar, Surankote, Mendhar, Poonch

2 (Nov 23)

Rajouri, Darhal, Nowshera, Kalakote, Dangan, Ganderbal

3 (Nov 30)

Karnah, Kupwara, Lolab, Handwara, Langate

4 (Dec 7)

Uri, Rafiabad, Sopore, Sangrama, Baramulla, Gulmarg, Pattan, Chandoora, Budgam, Beerwah, Khansahib, Char-e-Sharief, Gulabgarh, Reasi, Goold-Arnas, Udhampur, Chenani, Ramnagar

5 (Dec 13)

Tral, Pampora, Pulwama, Rajpora, Wachi, Shopian, Bani, Basholi, Kathua, Billwar, Hiranagar

6 (Dec 17)

Noorabad, Kulgam, Home Shalibugh, Shangus, Bijbehra, Pahalgam, Kishtwar, Inderwal, Doda, Bhaderwah, Ramba, Banihal, Devsar, Doru, Kokernag

7 (Dec 24)

FACT FILE

Hazratbal, Zadibal, Idgah, Khanyar, Habba Kadal, Amira Kadal, Sonawar, Batmalloo, Samba, Vijaypur, Nagrota, Gandhi Nagar, Jammu-East, Jammu-West, Bishnah, RS Pura, Suchetgarh, Marh, Raipur-Domana, Akhnoor, Chhamb

ELECTIONS IN J&K Party Position : 1957 Assembly Elections

Total Number of Seats J&K National Conference Praja Parishad Harijan Mandal Independent

75 68 05 01 01

Percentage of Total seats 90.66 06.66 01.33 01.33

Epilogue Ø 18 × November 2008

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ammu and Kashmir is under direct rule (Governor's administration) since July 10, after the fall of Ghulam Nabi Azad led coalition Government as key ally the Peoples Democratic Party had pulled out a fortnight earlier on Amarnath land row. Elections to J&K legislative assembly were due to be held by the beginning of October and a new assembly was required to be in place by November 20. When everyone was keenly looking at the next move, the Election Commission was clearly seen in a double whammy on whether to hold polls now or put off for some six months. Risks were both way clear. Holding elections now with dismal public participation could have been an adverse publicity internationally and putting them off a rather serious embarrassment. The message was clear –things are not quite in control in Kashmir Valley. When two main regional parties –the National Conference and Peoples Democratic Party –put their foot down it was almost concluded that elections were being putt off till early next year. However, on October 19, the Election Commission took all by surprise when it announced a staggered seven-phase election schedule beginning October 24 (notification), the first phase on November 17 and last phase on December 24. This is the longest election exercise ever held in Jammu and Kashmir. Counting of votes will begin on December 28 and the new government is likely to be in place in New Year eve.

What is at stake?

While announcing elections, the Chief Election Commissioner N Gopalaswami said, “we are taking a risk”.

His statement with political overtones though does not sound good from a constitutional authority but the observation Gopalaswami certainly reflects upon the ground realities. Till 2002, Jammu and Kashmir elections always remained a subject of criticism within and outside India.

There has been a bad history of rigging elections and fixing governments on whims and fancies of New Delhi in clear violation of the peoples' verdict. Situation in Kashmir was never normal but it was the blatant rigging in 1987 elections

FACT FILE

which turned the Valley into a bloody battle ground as it continues 20 years later. It is understood that Kashmir issue is so complex that a resolution can not be found in a single summit meet or in a single war. There has to be a sustained peace process involving a credible dialogue between New Delhi, Islamabad and people of Kashmir to steadily move towards a resolution. There have been many such initiatives in the past but the one launched by then Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee with General Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan has so far been most credible and sustainable.

The courage and will with which Vajpayee ensured free and fair elections in Jammu and Kashmir in 2002 had emerged as a sustainer of the peace process as people had, largely, their faith in democratic instruments restored. Six years later, there is a crisis of legitimacy. The Kashmir Coordination Committee, an amalgam of all separatist parties, Bar Association, trade lobbies etc, has drawn up an elaborate schedule of protests, demonstrations and shutdown which runs almost parallel with the election schedule. All eyes focused on Kashmir have little to do with nature of the government after elections. What exactly they look at is the voter turn out and public response to elections. This time even militant violence can not be blamed for low turnout.

The most bizarre feature of this present five-month long agitation in Kashmir has been the fact that no role of gun has been seen anywhere in mobilizing or intimidating the public.

Hours after the Election Commission announced poll schedule, the separatists, prominently Mohammad Yaseen Malik of JKLF announced a schedule for boycott campaign. “I appeal the Chief Election Commissioner of India to understand and endorse our right of campaign for not to vote…this is also democratic”, said Malik. Despite veiled criticism from democracy campaigners and civil rights activists, the government has launched a crackdown on antielection campaign and started bundling separatists in the lock-ups. If there is still a poor turnout even in absence of gun and strict crackdown by the government, it can be an embarrassing moment for India even as the peace process is thrown back to square one.

ELECTIONS IN J&K Region-Wise Party Position in 1957 Assembly Election

Total Number of Seats of seats J&K National Conference Praja Parishad Harijan Mandal Independent

Kashmir Region (Total seats) 42 -

Jammu Region 24 05 01 01

Ladakh 02 -

Epilogue Ø 19 × November 2008

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VALLEY SCENARIO

Even poor turn out is not bad idea

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oter turn out being anyone's guess, Kashmir Valley is up for most interesting electoral battle of the times. In 1987 and 1996, the National Conference being lone player in the Valley had field day. In 2002, a tough competition from Peoples Democratic Party, a first time player, saw NC falling from grace and not without humiliations as it veterans including the Chief Ministerial candidate Omar Abdullah lost to very little known faces mostly first timers.

NC got 19 seats and PDP 16 in the Valley. This time it is a tough competition not only between NC and PDP but also for both as there are new players and internal dissidents in the fray. Congress always had a limited constituency in the Valley. Last time it bagged five seats and this time it has to be seen whether it can retain the previous tally as the party has been worst sufferer of image on Amarnath land row in both regions. The

FACT FILE

8109 POLLING STATIONS Jammu and Kashmir has 8109 polling stations for 87 assembly segments. The maximum number of 999 polling booths will be established in Jammu district while as the newly-carved out Ganderbal district will have the lowest number of 142 polling stations. As far as the constituency with the maximum polling stations is concerned, Leh with 183 stations tops the list while as Gurez has the lowest number of 25 polling booths.

In Leh Assembly segment, Polling Station 181 – Anlay Fu is the highest polling station situated at an altitude of 5,000 metres.

Polling Station No: 10-Sunudo, in Nobra Assembly segment, will be the smallest polling station having 10 voters only.

As many as 603 polling stations will be situated at an altitude of 8,001 to 13,000 ft. with the maximum of 183 located in Leh constituency, followed by 158 in Kargil constituency.

As many as 196 polling stations will fall in the altitude of 7,001 to 8,000 ft. with Poonch Haveli constituency having the highest number of 32 polling stations followed by 25 in Kokernag constituency. Shopian constituency will have maximum of 89 polling stations and Wachi constituency 84 polling stations at height of 6,001 to 7,000 ft. A maximum of 3,606 polling stations will be at an altitude of 5,001 to 6,000 ft. with Batamaloo constituency having the largest number of 126 booths followed

by Sopore with 115. Another 2,829 polling stations will be located below 5,000 ft. with Gandhinagar constituency having maximum of 162 and Jammu West constituency 163 polling stations.

state Congress president is a Kashmir face and the party is banking heavily on him for securing some seats in Valley as it does not see quite promising prospects in Jammu region this time. Prof Saif-ud-Din Soz, the Union Water Resources Minister, is state Congress president and incharge of the election committee.

National Conference seems to have learnt some lessons from the past. In 2002, Omar Abdullah, who was anointed as party president a year before –the third straight in the hierarchy –was projected as Chief Ministerial candidate. He had the obvious inabilities of taking along the veterans who once worked under grandfather, then father and were now required to play second fiddle to him.

His anointment as party president and then projection as Chief Ministerial candidate was all the developments in such quick succession that

ELECTIONS IN J&K 1962 Assembly Elections : Contested and Uncontested

Total Number of Seats Contested Uncontested

75 41 34

Percentage of Total seats 54.66 45.33

Epilogue Ø 20 × November 2008

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neither he nor the party cadres were able to comprehend and make their heads clear. Six years later, Omar appears to be little mature and his ears put down to the ground. The elder cadre in the party has been given a role and honourable position. He has chosen to take backseat and Farooq has been projected as Chief Ministerial candidate. In a shrewd manner a word has been out in the public by partymen and Abdullah sympathizers in bureaucracy that the National Conference is being trusted by New Delhi to lead the race. With a history of New Delhi's fixed up governments, such words have the potential of generating a positive wave.

Poor voter turn out is always an NC advantage. Being the largest and oldest party in state, NC has its committed cadres everywhere. In Valley NC is the only party with a formidable urban base which is still a dream for other parties. In case of a poor turn out, NC's committed cadres may be a few dozens to couple of hundreds, still turn up to polling booths and that is where the party enjoys unparalleled advantage.

For ten days after announcement of poll schedules, the Peoples Democratic Party played with an interesting suspense on its poll participation. At the end of daily meetings at residence of the Mufti's the party had to say only one thing, “we are yet to take a decision on our poll participation”. These statements were being made when most of the shortlisted

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candidates had already been asked to fan out to their constituencies without wasting anytime. PDP wanted to send across a message that it was in mood to contest elections in the prevailing scenario but a decision to this effect had to be finally taken to avoid unscrupulous (read NC) to take advantage of a clear field. So, the final announcement came on October 28.

Poor turn out is though a potentially dangerous disadvantage for the PDP, but it has very little to loose in the urban areas where poll boycott is usually effective. PDP has carved out a rural base but the field is not free of challenges.

Other challengers in Valley's electoral landscape are Peoples Democratic Forum, J&K Democratic Party, the CPI(M), a newly emerged alliance of displaced Kashmir Pandits, the Awami National Conference and more than 20 potential independent contestants.

The Peoples Democratic Forum had come up under the leadership of Hakeem Mohammad Yaseen as a rag-tag alliance of over a dozen independent winners after 2002 elections. Though they claimed to neutralizers of friction between major alliance partners PDP and Congress but eventually emerged as a power lobby. The PDF therefore managed to get eight ministerial berths in Mufti government. Later least five

independents switched over to the Congress and most of the remaining broke far in their individual identities.

Hakeem still grew up the PDF and is now fielding candidates in central and north Kashmir constituencies. His men may not be in a position to win but most of them being PDP dissidents may influence the results unexpectedly.

J&K Democratic Party has been floated by one of PDP founders and former Minister Ghulam Hassan Mir. He is yet to name any face who can actually win from anywhere but again his efforts are erode PDP base and become a power equalizer lobby after elections. The Congress is believed to have decided fielding a candidate against Mir who is equally in touch with National Conference.

CPI(M) has one seat in 1996 assembly and two in 2002. Party is not expected to improve its tally beyond this number but all three parties –NC, PDP and Congress –are ready to spare the seats where CPI(M) contests. The race is all about keeping the potential opponents at bay and securing an ally for post-poll scenario.

One of the most interesting features of this year's elections in Kashmir Valley is the overwhelming participation of Kashmir Pandits. This is a good sign as the displaced community may get a proper representation in the assembly.

But unfortunately, the way Kashmiri Pandits are preparing for elections may

ELECTIONS IN J&K 1962 Assembly Elections : Party Position

Total Number of Seats J&K National Conference Praja Parishad Independent

75 70 03 02

Percentage of Total seats 93.33 04.00 02.66

Epilogue Ø 21 × November 2008

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not help any of the candidates. Before their migration, the Kashmiri Pandits had a significant vote share in at least 13 assembly constituencies in the Valley. Their deciding factor only grew after migration as in view of poor turnout in the Valley, the migrant voters had the key to fortune of contestants. While they did not chose to contest elections even in the voting they did not take a keen interest.

Raman Matoo was the only KP legislator in 2002 and his father-in-law PL Handoo in 1996. This time, however, the KPs are showing an overwhelming interest in elections and are fielding candidates of their own. Unfortunately there is no consensus in the community and upto half a dozen candidates are jumping into fray in each constituency. This may mar prospects of anyone of them winning from anywhere.

Awami National Conference of former maverick Chief Minister GM Shah is in the poll battle first time. Shah is brother-in-law of Dr Farooq Abdullah.

He is known better for his 1984 adventure when he toppled the Farooq government with Congress support.

Though Shah is aging, his son Muzaffar is leading campaign and wide Khaleda (Farooq's sister) is likely to be one the 20 contestants the party is planning to field. Few months back Shah had a meeting with the Prime Minister Manmohan Singh signaling to the home constituency that he is still a power to reckon with.

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JAMMU SCENARIO

Truly competitive election

T

he political landscape of Jammu region is not quite the same as it was some four or five months back. The twomonth long agitation on Amarnath land row has left the region polarized but with announcement of elections there are some positive signs of resilience and restoration of the social fabric and political order.

two and half years later when agitation broke out on Amarnath land row, the Congress stood as the worst sufferer of discrimination campaign. There were two components involved –the Sangh Parivar accused the Congress of hurting Hindu sentiments by revoking Amarnath land transfer order and the very revocation of order was projected as undermining the sentiments of the people of Jammu.

Congress was pushed to the wall and its leaders ran for cover. Seen in that perspective the Congress is up for biting dust but still things are not quite gloomy for the party.

Lead players in the region are Congress, BJP, National Conference and Panthers Party. Of late, Bahujan Samaj Party too has made significant inroads and the Peoples Democratic Party is up for a significant competition at some half a dozen constituencies and may even win a BJP tried to make maximum out of the couple of seats.

Jammu agitation and it had to be like this as entire campaign was managed by the Congress had contested the 2002 Sangh Parivar. Though the party regained elections on an agenda which was not its foothold by aggressive revival of the expected from a national political party Hindutva sentiment in at least five out of of its stature. The party endorsed that ten districts of Jammu region but BJP has the Jammu region has been discriminated no more remained the lone custodian of against by all government in past to keep this vote bank. Shiv Sena, Kranti Dal, the Kashmir constituency pleased. The Jammu State Morcha and some slogan did really work but it had to independent leaders who were active backfire soon. Congress won 15 seats in during the agitation are all in the field the region (against 8 in 1996) and later seeking a seat in the legislative assembly saw five independents falling in its kitty. and a seat sharing pact is very unlikely.

Under the coalition arrangement PDP was This multilateral division of vote bank given first term to lead government and directly helps the Congress in those in November 2002, Ghulam Nabi Azad of constituencies where BJP and its Congress created a history of sorts by ideologically compatible outfits have a becoming first Chief Minister who was foothold. born and brought up in Jammu region.

Even arch opponents like BJP described it National Conference though has a as moment of glory for Jammu. However, significant presence in all constituencies

ELECTIONS IN J&K 1962 Assembly Elections : Party Position Region-Wise

Total Seats J&K National Conference Praja Parishad Independent

Kashmir 42 -

Jammu 26 03 02

Ladakh 02 -

Total 70 3 2

Epilogue Ă˜ 22 Ă— November 2008

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of Jammu region but it is in the districts of Rajouri, Poonch, Doda, Kishtwar, Ramban and Reasi where party has a stronghold. In most of these constituencies the party faces a direct contest with Congress while in a couple of segments in Rajouri and Poonch, the Peoples Democratic Party is in a formidable position.

Ticket distribution is always a problem for all parties in twin border districts of Rajouri and Poonch where caste polarization between Gujjars and Paharis is unprecedented. A history of elections in these two districts (seven constituencies) suggests that the contest is often between two castes and not parties.

Panthers Party improved its tally from one in 1996 to four in 2002. After National Conference and Pe o p l e s D e m o c r a t i c Party, Panthers Party of Bhim Singh is the only regional outfit with a significant and growing base. The party could have improved its tally further in ensuing elections but its leader Bhim Singh puts in too

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64, 97,593 VOTERS The total electorate in the state is 64, 97,593 including 33, 52,147 male voters and 31, 45,446 female voters. Jammu district comprising 11 constituencies has the highest electorate of 9, 43,389 including 4,78,545 male and 4,64,844 female voters while Leh district comprising two assembly segments has the lowest number of 74,396 voters including 37,623 male and 36,773 female voters. Gandhinagar assembly segment has the highest total electorate of 1,52,100 with the maximum of 78,663 male and 73,437 female voters. Nobra constituency in Leh district has the lowest electorate of 11,863 with the minimum of 5,943 male and 5,920 female voters.

The Srinagar district has 8 constituencies with 5,57,265 voters including 2,88,984 male and 2,68,281 female electors. The Kupwara district comprising five assembly constituencies has an electorate of 3,41,004 voters including 1,77,860 male and 1,63,144 female voters.

The Baramulla district spread over seven assembly segments has an electorate of 5,18,215 including 2,68,347 male and 2,49,868 female voters. The Bandipora district covers three assembly constituencies with an electorate of 1,86,069 including 96,848 male and 89,221 female voters. The newly created district of Ganderbal includes two constituencies with a total electorate of 1, 37,495 including 71,336 male and 66,159 female voters. The five assembly segments of Budgam district comprise 3, 83,914 electors including 1,98,815 male and 1, 85,099 female voters.

The Pulwama district has four assembly segments and newly created districts of Shopian and Kulgam have two and four segments, respectively. The Pulwama district has total of 2, 92,959 voters including 1, 51,635 male voters while Shopian has 1, 39,475 voters including 67,173 female voters. The Kulgam district has a total of 2, 83,733 electorate with 1,47,449 male voters. The Anantnag district spread over six constituencies has 4, 20,534 electors including 2, 17,249 male and 2, 03,285 female voters.

The Kargil district has two segments with 78,117 voters including 38,770 male and 39,347 female voters.

much energy in making a statewide presence for which the party is yet to grow.

A new entrant in the electoral landscape of Jammu is Bahujan Samaj Party. BSP has four seats in 1996 and its tally fell down to only one seat in 2002. Few months later its lone MLA joined the coalition government as Minister and later switched its loyalties to the Peoples Democratic Party. After its Utter Pradesh experiment of social engineering, BSP redrew its Jammu plan and posed a challenge to the Congress, particularly in constituencies where Dalit vote is significant.

Jammu region has seven constituencies reserved for Scheduled Tribes. Till recently, the BSP was well positioned but internal bickering and split in the party on election eve has put it on a weak pitch. Recent resignation of its state president and joining National Conference is seen as a moral crasher for the cadres and voters.

ELECTIONS IN J&K 1967 Assembly Elections : Contested and Uncontested

Total Number of Seats Contested Uncontested

75 22 53

Percentage of Total seats 29.33 70.66

Epilogue Ă˜ 23 Ă— November 2008

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LADAKH SCENARIO

Six years after LUTF versus none, it is now all versus LUTF

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etween 2002 and 2008, politics in Ladakh has taken a full circle. 2002 was a milestone in Ladakhi politics when the local units of all political parties were dissolved to float a joint platform sending across a clear message that creation of Union Territory dominates the election agenda in Leh. Soon after elections, not only the local units of regional and national parties were revived but also the winning candidates established their affiliations with non-Ladakhi parties. Six years later, the Union Territory agenda is once again back. Unlike the 2002 scenario of Ladakh Union Territory Front (LUTF) versus none, in 2008 it is going to be 'all versus LUTF and NC combine'.

Ladakh had been an independent kingdom for about eight and a half centuries until it was invaded and made a part of Jammu and Kashmir by Dogra king Gulab Singh's army led by General Zorawar Singh in 1834. People of Ladakh have been very proud to be Indians right from the day when Ladakh became a part of the Indian Union following the declaration of an independent India.

However all leaders of Ladakh, irrespective of their association to different political parties today, have always voiced to have separate Ladakh from Jammu and Kashmir. Ever since

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Ladakh became a part of the democratic India, people of Ladakh have always wished to have direct links with New Delhi and accordingly the leaders of this trans-Himalayan enclave have demanded different arrangements from time such as North Eastern F r o n t i e r A r e a ( N E FA ) t y p e o f administration, Central Administration, and the Union Territory status to preserve Ladakh's unique cultural, linguistic and the geo-climatic conditions. With its unique conditions Ladakh is like a different country to the rest of Jammu & Kashmir.

When the negligence towards Ladakh continued for the by the then state governments, the Ladakh Buddhist Association launched an agitation 1989 in support of UT demand. Three Buddhist youth were killed during the agitation. The agitation was suspended only when and the then Prime Minister Mr. Rajiv Gandhi intervened and proposed the Hill Council status on the pattern of the Darjeeling Gorkha Hill Council. Subsequently a tripartite agreement was signed by the Center Government, State Government and the LBA and the UT demand was suspended.

The Ladakh Autonomous Hill Development Council was finally constituted in 1995 and the Indian

National Congress could win all 26 seats. However after National Conference government was formed at the state in 1996, it used all tactics to destabilize and defunct the newly constituted Hill Council. Dr. Farooq Abdullah's government had been very reluctant to further empower the Hill Council. When time approached for assembly elections in 2002 Leh's all political leaders came on a single platform by disbanding their respective parties and formed the Ladakh Union Territory Font (LUTF). The newly formed party succeeded to elect Mr. Nawang Rigzin Jora and Sonam Wangchuk Norbu (Pinto) unopposed for the State assembly from Leh and Nubra constituencies respectively.

But the much hyped LUTF soon detected with some cracks as one day the Bhartya Janata Party (BJP) was found restored.

The members of the LUTF previously belonged to different political parties with different ideologies seemed to have found it difficult to adjust with one another. The major split in the LUTF occurred when the Indian National Congress restored its office in 2004 by installing Tsering Samphel, who at present is the member at the ST/SC commission, as its president. In 2005 the third LAHDC Elections were held between the Indian National Congress

ELECTIONS IN J&K 1967 Assembly Elections : Party Position

Total Number of Seats J&K National Conference Praja Parishad BJS Independent

75 61 08 03 03

Percentage of Total seats 81.33 10.66 04.00 04.00 Epilogue Ă˜ 24 Ă— November 2008

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and LUTF. LUTF registered a thumping majority by sweeping 24 seats out of 26. Thuspstan Chhewang, MP Lok Sabha from Ladakh also contested the Hill Council election from Lower Leh constituency and won by a landslide margin. When the LUTF-led Council was formed Chhewang continued as the MP Ladakh and vacated Lower Leh constituency for a re-election.

Meanwhile people started blaming LUTF for its ineffective Hill Council and secondly for having no strategy to strive for the UT demand. The by-election for the Lower Leh constituency was held after one and half year of the LUTF Hill Council in power and LUTF lost to Congress and Congress Party registered a landslide victory.

LUTF was a great platform if it was used to strive for common interests. Rather there has been narrow minded politics within LUTF which all Ladakh knows very well today. LUTF was formed to save Ladakh from political parties which support solutions like Greater Autonomy for the State but after the recent LAHDC election in Kargil, LUTF joined hands with National Conference which can be seen as a politics of power.

Two councilors who belonged to LUTF in the Leh LAHDC have recently joined the Congress Party on account of difference they developed with the leaders of LUTF. The LUTF has now entered into a tacit understanding with National

Conference as well as Bhartiya Janta Party. LUTF was formed on the plank of Union Territory demand, NC is a party for Greater Autonomy and BJP seeks abrogation of Article 370 which gives J&K special status. This mix of three is a unique paradigm. The challengers on the front are Congress in Leh and Nobra and Zanskar and independents in Kargil.

Peoples Democratic Party and Panthers Party have for first time fielded their candidates in Ladakh region.

WITH INPUTS: Basheer Ahmed in Baramulla, Mir Javed in Srinagar, Tsewang Rigzin in Leh, Sheraz in Kargil and KD Maini in Poonch

The University of California, Berkeley Invites applications for the 2009-2010 S.V. Ciriacy-Wantrup Postdoctoral Fellowships in Natural Resource Economics and Political Economy The S.V. Ciriacy-Wantrup Postdoctoral Fellowships in Natural Resource Economics and Political Economy will be awarded for the 2009-2010 academic year to support advanced research at the University of California, Berkeley.

For the purposes of this fellowship, natural resources are defined broadly to include environmental resources. The fellowship encourages, but is not limited to, policy-oriented research. Applications are open to scholars from any social science discipline and related professional fields such as law and planning, who will make significant contributions to research on natural resource economics broadly defined. Preference will be given to proposals whose orientation is broadly institutional and/or historical, and which are conceptually and theoretically innovative. Proposals with a primarily statistical or econometric purpose are not eligible for consideration.

Application deadline is December 8, 2008.

For more information, please visit: http://research.chance.berkeley.edu/ciriacy/

Epilogue Ă˜ 25 Ă— November 2008

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J&K ELECTIONS

Answers To Some Most Frequently Asked Questions ......

RISK FACTOR

An expert on electoral politics and co-author of book ‘Elections in Jammu & Kashmir’, Prof REKHA CHOWDHARY responds to questions compiled

by Epilogue Editorial Desk. An internationalliy recognised authority on J&K affairs, Rekha teaches political science at University of Jammu

Elections to Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly have been announced at a time when state is passing through most unusual circumstances. Fact that Election Commission had to take such a long time in deciding schedule and the announcement did not come without a “risk factor” observation of Chief Election Commissioner N Gopalaswami underlines prevalence of an unsuitable atmosphere. When the timing of elections was debated there were two main points of consideration: early elections with poor turnout a bad publicity and deferred elections a bad news for India internationally. How do you look at the legitimacy and credibility of exercise at this stage and under these circumstances?

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ertainly this must have been one of the most difficult decisions for the Election Commission to take. In normal circumstances as these were before the month of June this year, the scheduling of elections would have been no problem at all. The situation was very conducive for elections at that time. Since May 2007, election rallies were being organized and were attended by large number of people. However, situation has changed dramatically during

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last four months. The electoral space that had been gradually extended since 2002 elections has shrunk now. The separatist organizations which were finding themselves irrelevant have gained the central space. In this context, it is very clear that the level of electoral participation would be quite low. Before the situation changed, it was expected that there might be more than 60% voter turnout in the Valley, however, now the voter turnout might be quite low. The factor of poll boycott might work effectively. Interestingly, earlier this year, Mirwaiz Omer Farooq was quite hesitant about giving the call of poll boycott, since he was not sure whether that call would be headed or not – so much euphoria about electoral politics was at that time. However, now there might by voluntary boycott and separatist organizations may not have to work very hard for it Despite the chances of lower voter turnout, the Election Commission has taken the decision to go ahead with the election. It must certainly not be an easy decision and the Commission must have taken into consideration all the options and possibilities. Not holding the election would have meant keeping the State under the Governor's rule and after the expiry of six months of this rule, imposing President's rule. The absence of democratic politics and a total political vacuum of the mainstream politics would also not have been healthy for this state.

The 'risk factor' is there, because of the low participation, the credibility of the election might be lower. This is certainly problematic in the context of the 2002 elections which had regained credibility for electoral process. Legitimacy of the

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J&K Epilogue Ø 26 × November 2008

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electoral process or the lack of it is certainly an important issue for the politics of Kashmir. Many of the problems of the state are linked with the lack of democratic space, in general and the lower credibility of the electoral process, in particular. There is a strong perception, especially in Kashmir, that elections have been manipulated and the governments have been imposed from the Centre. 2002 Assembly election went a long way in reversing this impression. That was a very important exercise from the point of view of restoring confidence of the Kashmiris in the electoral process. Held under the international glare, this election was seen to be relatively fairer than earlier elections. The peculiarity of the 2002 Assembly election was that unlike the 1996 Assembly election, it was not held under the supervision of the security forces and there were not many allegations of coercive voting.

The voter turnout was uneven but whatever the level of voting, it was quite voluntary. There were constituencies where the voter turnout was less than 5% (Amirakadal, Habbakadal, Batamaloo, Khanyar, Idgah, Zadibal) and there were constituencies with higher than 60% voter turnout (Gurez, Uri, Karnah, Charar-e-Sharief). Despite the average 30% voter turnout in the Valley, there were districts in north Kashmir which saw reasonable voter turnout (53% in Kupwara, 46% in Bugam and 40% in Baramulla.

Electoral exercise, on the whole, was seen to be quite legitimate and this had the implication of giving legitimacy to the elected government during the period 2002-2008. So much was the positive impact of the 2002 elections, that the electoral and the mainstream political space was quite extended in the period after that. During the by-polls which were held in 2006 in the three constituencies of the Valley the voter turnout was as high as 76% for Rafiabad, 69% for Pattan and 64% for Sangrama.

The expansion of the electoral space was visible not only from the higher voter turnout but also from other processes in the mainstream politics. Till 1996, the legitimacy of the mainstream politics was so affected that it was not possible for the political leaders to hold any meeting in Kashmir. In fact, there was no campaigning in the Valley during this election.

Campaigning could not be properly organized even during the

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2002 elections. With the exception of a few constituencies of northern Kashmir, where few big rallies by the 'proxy' candidates of People's Conference (a well-known part of the separatist amalgam, the APHC) were organized, normal electioneering could not take place in the Valley. In fact, after the first phase of elections, the violence was intensified and not much of campaigning could be possible.

However, during the last few years, not only the space for mainstream politics was expanded but the electoral politics was reinvigorated. Though elections were due in September 2008, but the political parties had started preparing for the elections as early as May 2007. Since that time, there have been rallies after rallies organized by the political parties. One year before the election was due, it seemed that election time had come and the political parties had started their election campaign.

It was therefore expected that the 2008 elections would not only become more participatory but would also contribute to enhancing the credibility of the electoral and the mainstream political processes. In the present situation, the political reversal is going to affect not only the legitimacy of the electoral process but also that of the government that would be formed after that.

STAGERRED SCHEDULE Look at the schedule of elections, it is too staggered. Except for the large states like Utter Pradesh, elections in seven phases are hardly held to any assembly in India. Besides weather, do you see a strategy in schedule as, in case of Kashmir Valley, areas under relatively lesser influence of separatist sentiment have been listed in first phase?

E

lections in Jammu and Kashmir have to be spread in various phases for the simple reason that it is not a normal electoral exercise. It is a militancy infested

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J&K Epilogue Ă˜ 27 Ă— November 2008

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state and the State has to prepare for meeting the challenge of violence during the elections. Even during 2002, election was spread in four phases. There was intensified violence during that elections. There were large scale killings of political activists, candidates, security forces and even civilians. There were as many as 172 militant attacks and 115 security persons and 159 civilians were killed. Among those killed were two candidates, Sheikh Abdul Rehman who was an independent candidate and Mushtaq Ahmed Lone who belonged to the NC and was then the Law Minister of the State.

NOTIONAL IMPORTANCE Seen from Indian perspective, particularly with reference to New Delhi's handling of Kashmir issue, elections to J&K legislative assembly have always been considered and projected as an exercise which goes far beyond basic purpose for electing a government. Please comment on the legitimacy of elections and their relations with the 'National Interest'.

process was started in the first Assembly election when all but two seats were returned unopposed. During this election there was en masse rejection of nomination papers of the only opposition party, the Praja Parishad on trivial grounds.

The trend of rejection of the nomination papers and uncontested returns continued through the next few elections. Though the phenomenon of uncontested returns did not continue after the fourth general election, but elections were seen to be manipulated in other ways.

The contested legitimacy of the elections has always remained problematic. However there were well known exceptions like 1977 Assembly elections. Even the 1983 Assembly election had some credibility. It is certainly true that the legitimacy of election or the lack of it certainly had its reflection on the 'Kashmir problem'. A credible electoral exercise like 1977 had the impact of lowering the level of discontent in Kashmir.

However, an election perceived to be highly rigged like the 1987 Assembly election had the severe implication of throwing the State into the phase of militancy and separatism.

Since 2002, the issue of legitimacy of elections has assumed new meanings. In fact, 2002 Assembly election was seen as a very big confidence building measure for the

E

lectoral process, or to that extent any political process related with Jammu and Kashmir, has generally been seen in the context of the 'national interest'. Electoral manipulations, for which this state has been infamous, have generally been justified in the name of national interest. Right from the first election, the electoral process has faced the crisis of legitimacy. There has been manipulation of the electoral process through various mechanisms. For instance, during the first four Assembly elections, there was the phenomenon of uncontested returns. The elections were so manipulated by the ruling party that it could manage huge majorities within the Assembly by suppressing opposition of all kinds. Hence, there was no competition at all, and the candidates belonging to the ruling party would be declared elected without having to go through the electoral process. The

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ELECTIONS IN J&K

In 2002 Assembly Elections, National Conference President Omar Abdullah was party’s Chief Ministerial Candidate. He contested election from family’s pocketborough seat of Ganderbal in Central Kashmir and lost to a little known Qazi Mohammad Afzal of Peoples Democratic Party. A biggest humiliation for Abdullah dynasty so far.

Epilogue Ø 28 × November 2008

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people of the State, especially the Valley. The 2002 election took place at a time when the Government of India had started preparing for the comprehensive peace process.

Seeking to restore the trust of people of Kashmir in the Indian State as well its democratic institutions, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, the then Prime Minister of India had offered a 'free and fair' election to the Kashmiris. Held under the international glare, it was seen to be quite credible election and helped restore the confidence of people in the electoral process. The fact that an incumbent government had been changed through the participation of people rather than through the intervention of the Centre had the impact of boosting the confidence of people in the democratic processes.

CHALLENGES It took a long time and great effort to undo the damage of 1987 assembly elections which apparently worsened the Kashmir issue by alleged denial of democratic space to genuine competitors. 2002 assembly elections came to be seen as trendsetters for their largely recognized fairness. 21 years after the most controversial elections how do you look at the challenges of present elections.

I

n the context of the legitimacy attained by the 2002 Assembly election, it is already a set back that the 2008 elections are not going to be held in the normal circumstances. The way things were moving till May this year and the way there was an electoral upsurge in the Valley, it would have reinforced the legitimacy of the democratic processes. That election is now taking place in a different situations, this in itself is the biggest challenge. As the situation appears at present, the low voter turnout may give leverage to the separatists to contest the

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legitimacy of elections. But much depends upon how the electoral exercise unfolds. It will have to be seen as to how the political parties are able to meet the present situation. Will they be able to hold the electoral campaign, will there be possibility of voting in certain constituencies, will the cadre of the local parties be able to mobilize their supporters in their strongholds? Much will depend on the nature of participation.

However, one can see that the effect of the poll boycott may be felt the most in the urban areas, mostly the district of Srinagar. But it has to be understood, that this district has been regularly boycotting elections and even in 2002, the overall voter turnout here was around 11 percent. However, in the pre-June situation, there was every possibility that even here the voter turnout would be substantial. But now the major question remains whether the trend of lower voter turnout constantly seen in the district of Srinagar will be followed in other districts as well?

IN SEPARATIST CONTEXT Please comment on electoral politics in Jammu and Kashmir in separatist context.

I

nterestingly, every election since 1996 has been of great interest to the separatists. They have been responding to the elections through their politics of Poll Boycott.

Elections provide a challenge to the separatists in the context of the relevance of their politics. Hence, they tend to take every electoral exercise very seriously and indulge in reverse campaign asking people to boycott the polls. From this point of view, each election is as much a challenge to the mainstream political parties as to the separatists. For the separatists, the criticality of the challenge of election has been increasing due to the expansion of the mainstream politics during last few years.

In the initial period of present phase of conflict, the mainstream political space had totally collapsed and the separatist politics had completely overtaken the politics of

ELECTIONS IN J&K

Dr. Farooq Abdullah has been declared as NC’s Chief Ministerial candidate but he is unlikely to contest election from anywhere. Congress does not have a tradition of declaring leader in elections, PDP too has adopted same policy

Epilogue Ă˜ 29 Ă— November 2008

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the Valley and there was a total vacuum in the mainstream politics. With the ascendancy of the gun on the one hand and the political upsurge on the other, there was no scope for the mainstream politics and therefore the mainstream political leaders and parties had gone into hibernation for a long time.

How the electoral space had totally collapsed could be seen during the 1989 Parliamentary elections when most of the people preferred to stay away from the electoral exercise.

Only 5.08% voters turnout was recorded in Anantnag constituency and 5.48% in Baramula. Srinagar seat was returned uncontested since there were many candidates ready to contest elections.

Ascendancy of the separatist politics continued throughout the period of nineties, even though elections were organized in 1996 both at the Parliamentary and Assembly levels. However, by the end of the decade of nineties, the mainstream politics started expanding itself and by the time the 2002 Assembly election took place, the mainstream politics had regained some political space. Since 2002, there had been a continuous expansion of the mainstream politics, with the result that an overlap started developing between the separatist and the mainstream politics.

It is in the context of the overlap between the separatist and the mainstream politics, that the electoral politics had been posing serious challenge to the separatists, not only in the context of the relevance of their relevance but also in the context of the legitimacy claims that such elections may create for those who tend to equate electoral response with the support towards the Indian State. As the electoral space had been expanding since 2002 elections, the separatists had sought to respond to this challenge by referring to distinction between the 'Governance' politics on the one hand and the politics for 'ultimate resolution of the problem' on the other. However, even after making such distinction, the separatists were affected by the possibility of higher voter turnout in the elections.

How the electoral politics affects the separatists could be

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seen just before June this year. With an upsurge in the electoral politics, there was lot of pressure on the separatists. While some of them had given a call for poll boycott, there were others who were not very confident whether such a call would work or not. There were clear cut indications that if the situation had not turned the way it has turned over last few months, the boycott call might not have been very effective.

AGENDA In 1996 assembly elections, the dominant agenda was restoration of democracy and the largest player –the National Conference –contested on plank of restoration of greater autonomy. In 2002, the dominant agenda was credibility of elections and main plank was restoration of peace. What, do you think, sets the agenda this time?

T

here are lot of issues raised by the political upsurge in Jammu as well as Kashmir during the last four months which would form the agenda of the elections. However, different political parties would be using the issues in different manner. For instance, the agitation of Jammu will become the reference point for the BJP, Panthers Party and other Jammu oriented political parties. Jammu's regional assertion would be the major issue for these parties.

Already these parties are raising the issue of delimitation in a rather big way. The issue of regional aspirations would be raised by the Congress as well.

The issue of Autonomy will again be the focus of National Conference campaign, though it will be focusing on different issues in different regions. The resolution of conflict and violation of Human Rights may form the basis of its campaign in Kashmir. In Jammu, it may refer to the regional aspirations and at the sub-

ELECTIONS IN J&K

According to official voter statistics of state election department, Anlay Fu Polling Station in Leh Constituency has lowest number of voters - only 10. However, what government has concealed is more interesting. Tarkundi polling station in Poonch has only 6 voters. Barring family in this village of 3000 all illegally crossed over LoC to Pak Since 1990.

Epilogue Ø 30 × November 2008

J&K

I N

F O C U S

ELECTIONS 2008

regional level, it may touch upon the issues of intraregional and inter-community relations. Human Rights violations in the Valley and the peace process may form the major agenda for the PDP though it may also emphasise on issues like opening of roads and trade between Indian side of Kashmir and the Pakistan administered Kashmir.

CAMPAIGN Post Amarnath land row, the regional gulf has widened in Jammu and Kashmir. It is difficult even for a common man to go public with a single set of opinion in two regions. Is it, any way, possible for the political parties to take a common agenda to all regions when regional voices are too sharp? If not, won't it be a deceptive and opportunist election campaign for all?

T

here may be two kinds of responses. For the political parties like the National Conference which have constituency in both the regions, their campaign might help build some bridges between Jammu and Kashmir. But for the political parties like the PDP in Kashmir and BJP in Jammu, their political campaign will raise the shrill in the regional politics.

OUTCOME National Conference returned with a nearly two-third majority in 1996 assembly elections when polls were held after a six-year long political vacuum. Congress and BJP had eight and seven seats, respectively, Bahujan Samaj Party and Janta Dal had four each. In 2002, the elections threw a hung assembly. An alliance between various parties was the only

FACT FILE

way to form a government and the experiment did not go well. This time, do you see possibility of any political party gaining sufficient numbers to form government of its own?

I

f the elections had been organized before the month of June this year, there would have been a fractured mandate in the Valley. Politics of Kashmir was quite vibrant and the competition would have been very intense. The intensity of the competition would have been defined not merely by the rivalry between the NC and the PDP but also because the increasing number of political parties preparing themselves for the poll. However, with the change in the situation, the intensity of the electoral competition would be missing and the electoral mandate may not be that fragmented. NC may be in a position to gain quite a number of seats.

However, the electoral verdict in Jammu will remain fragmented. In fact it might be more fragmented than it was in 2002. In 2002, the Congress was able to get a chunk of seats in the region. But this time, it may not be able to get as many seats both due to the anti-incumbency factor as well as due to the fall out of the two months' agitation. In the final outcome, the 37 seats of Jammu may be divided among the Congress, BJP, NC, Panthers Party. Depending on the nature of mobilisation, the BSP may also regain few seats. A few seats may be captured by the independents as well.

On the whole, there are lots of possibilities about the formation of government. One thing is very clear that like 2002, the NC would emerge as the largest party. But depending on how large this party is, the composition of the government would be decided. In the situation as it is emerging, if the NC is able to get a substantial number of seats in the Valley, it may be able to form the government on its own or with the help of independents.

However, if it is not able to sweep the Valley, in that case there will certainly be a coalition government headed by the NC.

ELECTIONS IN J&K

J&K Legislative Assembly has 87 seats to be contested (2 nominated) Kashmir Valley has 46, Jammu 34 & Ladakh 4. Earlier this year 8 new districts took shape.

20 constituencies fall in 8 newly created districts.

Epilogue Ă˜ 31 Ă— November 2008

J&K

R E P O R T LOC TRADE

Trans-LoC Trade

Trucks Lift LoC Barriers Epilogue Newsroom

D

escribing October 21, 2008 as a Red Letter day in the post-1947 history of Jammu and Kashmir will not be an exaggeration even though all eyes are focused on translation of a ceremonial beginning

into a lasting process of bridging the wide divides. Over 61 years after last truck plied on the Jelhum Valley road, 14 load carries crossed the Line of Control on both sides to mark the beginning of Trans-LoC trade –a biggest Confidence Building Measure

of the century.

Actual trade with prospects of economic benefit on both sides may be a long way yet, the exchange of goods on both sides of Line of Control has come as a biggest booster to the

Visiting delegation traders from Pakistan administered Kashmir at Suchetgarh outpost closed to Indo-Pak International Border near Jammu.

Pakistan surfaced port city of Sialkote is just 11Kms from here. Jammu based traders want Suchetgarh-Sialkote route opened for trade.

Epilogue Ø 32 × November 2008

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stagnant peace process between India and Pakistan to ease tensions on Kashmir. True to the spirit, the first consignment exchanged between both sides and on both routes –SrinagarMuzafarrabad and Poonch-Rawalakote –carried mostly gift items instead of properly worked out commodities for trade. These gifts which included fruits, vegetables, pulses, spices and handicrafts have been estimated at Rs 8 lakhs.

Shortly ahead of the launch of Trans-LoC trade a 19-member delegation of traders and industrialists from the Pakistan administered Kashmir visited Jammu and Kashmir to make a market assessment and work out modalities.

The delegation headed by Zulfikar Abbasi, a hydel industrialist, had wide ranging meetings with the trade lobbies in Srinagar and Jammu and visited the industrial facilities. Deliberations were though successful to the extent that traders from both sides made first oneto-contact and got an idea of trade potential but the modalities could not be finalized as the government had left everything to them. In their own capacities traders enjoy hardly any authority to decide on currency of exchange and setting up of enabling infrastructure to facilitate the trade.

Therefore, the trade is likely to remain casual to the undecided modalities, insufficient infrastructure and lackadaisical bureaucratic attitude till traders from both sides join hands to exert pressure on their respective governments to remove the bottlenecks. The traders from both sides have agreed in principle to form a joint business chamber and Abbasi has been offered to take over as first president. The formation of this joint

business chamber is still far from reality in view of a wide gulf between traders of Srinagar and Jammu and rival trade lobbies in Srinagar.

The trading posts — Salamabad near Uri in Kashmir and Chakothi, two km inside Pakistan administered Kashmir received their first consignments on October 21 hours after Jammu and Kashmir Governor NN Vohra flagged off the trucks from Salamabad and PaK Prime Minister Sardar Attique Khan saw off carriers from Chakothi on other side.

The crossing of the LoC followed almost the same modalities as the SrinagarMuzaffarabad and Poonch-Rawalakote bus services, but with a difference — vehicles from each side actually crossed the Aman Setu. The bus passengers walk across to board a different vehicle after crossing the bridge.

In this case, the respective cargo vehicle drivers were given temporary passes and escorted in convoys to the trading centres at Salamabad and Chakothi. The drivers remained confined to the trading centres and waited while the unloading and loading is complete.

But the reaction in the Valley to what could be a historic moment in ties across the LoC has been largely muted.

The reality is far from the objective of linking Kashmir to markets in Central Asia.

The state's trade federations have said confusion over basic issues such as currency usage, communication between the two sets of traders, lists of traded items and the logistics of transport and travel papers has meant that the effort might remain only

Epilogue Ø 33 × November 2008

symbolic.

“We don't know what currency we have to deal in. For the first few days we will be using a barter system where we fix the worth of the goods based on the exchange rate between the Indian and Pakistani rupee. Then the deliveries will be done,” said Mubeen Shah, president, Kashmir Chamber of Commerce and Industries (KCCI).

“We have met the government.

Considering how volatile the market is now, we want to trade in a risk-free currency,” said A M Shirazi, president Chambers of Commerce and Industries Kashmir (CCIK), while pointing to the fluctuating Pakistani rupee.

According to the traders, the fact that one can't make calls from Kashmir to PaK has hampered efforts to place orders. Initially, the KCCI would assist by preparing the bills in its own name in the absence of proper buyer information. “We are non-profit organisation. We won't be doing this forever,” said Shah. Though a delegation of PaK had come, Shah said they were not representing buyers. The delegation from Indian side of Jammu and Kashmir is now slated to travel across LoC sometimes towards the end of November and it is only then that the buyers' information and requirements can be worked out.

Though the government has maintained that the Indian delegation must be one, the three rival trade federations in Kashmir — KCCI, CCIK and Federation Chamber of Industry Kashmir (FCIK) and their counterparts in Jammu, the Jammu Chamber of Commerce and Industries —want independent

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representation.

In spite of the political clamour to open the LoC for business, the traders are jittery about the prices that they will get in PaK because of the economic turmoil in Pakistan, including the high inflation prevailing there. “We have no idea how much our apples will fetch there. But we are sure it will be much lower than what we get from consignments to the rest of India,” said Sajaad Khan, an apple farmer in Baramulla district, one of Kashmir's biggest apple growing regions.

Confusion is far deeper on the Poonch-Rawalakote route. Traders in Poonch were never taken in confidence either by government or the business chambers in Srinagar or Jammu. Interestingly, the Jammu based traders have hardly any interest in taking the Poonch-Rawalakote route which is 250 kilometers from Jammu. “We would prefer N o w s h e r a - J h a n g a r Tr a n s - L o C r o u t e o r Suchetgarh-Sialkote Trans-IB route”, says Ram Sahai, the President of Jammu Chambers of Commerce and Industries. Therefore, when trucks rolled down the LoC trade routes, there was neither a truck nor a packet of commodities from Jammu markets. Even the Jammu based traders stayed away from the ceremonial launch of trade links.

In such a scenario, the Poonch-Rawalakote route is bound to fail eventually. A day ahead of the launch of truck service, the Foreign Secretary Shivshanker Menon admitted in New Delhi that modalities were yet to be worked out for PoonchRawalakote route. It was a trade in haste. Unlike Jammu based traders, the business community in Poonch did not boycott the launch. The local Beopar Mandal (association of traders) collected fruits and vegetables from the market and sent them across as gifts as Governor's Advisor HH Tyabji launched the truck service. Next day, Pakistan administered Kashmir President Raja Zulkarnain Khan drove to the last LoC point on Poonch-Rawalakote route to see off the trucks from other side which too carried gift items.

Don’t Link Trade With Kashmir Issue Interview Raja Zulqarnain Khan President, Pakistan administered Kashmir How do you look at this beginning?

Trade facilities between two parts of Jammu and Kashmir were long due and they will not only boost the economic profile on both sides but will also help in cementing the ties between people. I am sure this beginning will go a long way in improving life and economy of people on both sides.

What is the public perception about trade ties on your side?

Of course, our people are overwhelmed and they look forward to enhanced relations. While the businessmen are elated over the prospects of profitable trade the common people see trade link as an opportunity to revive relations with their dear ones in Indian Jammu and Kashmir.

Do you think trade ties can pave way for lasting resolution of Kashmir issue?

It will be unwise to link trade with Kashmir issue.

Trade is a good omen and it strengthens relations between both sides but it has nothing to do with resolution of Kashmir issue. Government of India and Pakistan should engage in a meaningful dialogue and involve people of Jammu and Kashmir for finding the lasting solution. Killings in Kashmir and other violations of human rights hurt us deeply and give us wounds which can not be repaired by trade. All types of human rights violations must end in Kashmir to create a congenial atmosphere for dialogue.

-Raja Zulqarnain Khan spoke to KD Maini at Poonch LoC on October 22

Epilogue Ø 34 × November 2008

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This Is No Trade

‘We Are Investing In Peace Process’ Interview with ZULFIKAR ABBASI President, Muzaffarabad Chamber of Commerce and Industries What attracts you to trans-LoC trade with Jammu and Kashmir? Are you looking at economic expansion or investing in peace process?

Jammu and Kashmir is land of our ancestors. It is a part of our own home where did not have any access for last 60 years. We are not going to do anything new. It is just the resumptions of ties broken at the time of partition.

I must make one thing clear; it is not the money which brings us here. We are actually keen and sincere in contributing our bit to the peace process. If you look at the manner in which Cross-LoC trade is being rolled out it is not a business of profit; it is out and out a business of loss. Aware of all the bottlenecks and losses we are still serious about going ahead because we respect the gesture behind this (CrossLoC trade). Of course, in the long term we would try to convert these losses into profit but at the moment we are ready to bear all losses for a long term profit of peace and cooperation between two parts of Jammu and Kashmir.

The decision on Cross-LoC trade has been taken at highest level in India and Pakistan –between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and President Asif Ali Zardari –and now it was our turn to push it forward. We did not want to share blame of failing this Confidence Building Measure between both countries on easing tension over Kashmir.

What is the public response to this gesture in Pakistan administered Kashmir and do you find a matching response on this side as you may have observed during last five days.

I am surprised at the kind of response.

Epilogue Ø 35 × November 2008

Despite some element of skepticism there is an overwhelming public response on both sides of the divide.

Skepticism stems from misconceived notions due to lack of any communication channel. People in Pakistan administered Kashmir are

R E P O R T LOC TRADE

overwhelmed as they see in this trade link a route to revival of their relations with the people of this side. When we set out for this journey on October 9 we had very little idea of public response this side. But during my stay and deliberations in Srinagar as well as in Jammu I am amazed at the kind of response. People on both sides, I feel, are eager to break all barriers.

It took a staggering two and half years for delegation to actually materialize this visit. This inordinate delay had given a perception that businessmen in Pakistan administered Kashmir were not interested in trading with this side for the fear of Jammu and Kashmir's dominance on the markets across LoC. There was a feeling that you had very little to send across this side while the products and produce in Jammu and Kashmir could have flooded your markets.

Again, this is due to lack of communication channels. These are misconceived notions. On the contrary we were told that the only market in Jammu and Kashmir is that of unrest and violence…there is alarming unemployment and majority of people are victims of hunger. This still is the general public perception on our side.

However, fact of the matter is that both sides have huge potential and the trade relations can give a mutual fillip to the economies. Whatever advantages and disadvantages are almost similar on both sides.

We had devastating earthquake in October 2005 which put us 50 years back. But with international assistance, a world class infrastructure is coming up in Pakistan administered Kashmir and Jammu and Kashmir can obviously make huge contribution to that. Eventually it

has to be our mutually shared infrastructure and economy. There are many things, for example rice, on our side which can meet demands here.

Similarly, fruit and vegetables from this side can fully meet our demands. Our spices and recipes can also be of huge demand here. This one visit or one meeting can not help zeroing down on demands and availabilities on both sides. We have to make a sincere beginning in right direction and the process will gradually grow. Industry on this side of divide is far better then ours but we enjoy the advantage of better and more skilled manpower.

Both sides are a land of opportunities.

India and Pakistan have conflicts over use of water resources which are the biggest wealth both sides. We can think of having joint venture in hydel projects which on one hand will convert tensions into cooperation and on other hand will give a boost to economy. We can have joint ventures in tourism which emerging as one of the biggest industries of the world. We can have joint ventures in horticulture, floriculture, cold storages and distribution system. See, Kashmir Valley is a fertile ground for growing world class flowers. We can take these flowers to Europe and Gulf in next 10 to 14 hours which reduces the cost of transport and minimizes risk of perishing.

What are the bottlenecks in a practical Cross-LoC trade?

Initially this trade is full of bottlenecks. As I pointed out above, we are participating in the Cross-LoC trade under present circumstances to push the peace process and with a hope that practical measures are taken to make this initiative success and not just a ceremonial gesture to eventually fade away.

Epilogue Ø 36 × November 2008

The list of commodities to be exchanged is an eye wash but the gesture behind this is magnanimous which needs to be appreciated. This is a first step towards a journey which we have to travel t h o u s a n d s m i l e s t o g e t h e r. We understand that this trade will push the peace process but even minimum basic requirements of infrastructure are not in place. With only 1 to 1.5 metric tonne truck allowed to ply on Cross-LoC route, we can probably exchange gifts with each other and not the commodities for trade. After all we are not dealing in precious stones that a truck load of material would suffice. This is not a business of profit…this is business of straight loss.

We do not have any dependable or minimally workable communication system between two sides. When you can't talk to each other over phone, you don't have any postal, parcel or courier services…what kind of trade you can think of? Trades are not done incommunicado. We are about to start trade which needs enhanced contacts but experiences are not quite impressive when we look at Cross-LoC bus services.

Permit system is too cumbersome and lengthy. Just imagine, if an apple grower applies for permit when produce is ripe for the markets and he gets permission when season is over. Can there be trade in such situation?

We –representatives of the Chamber of Commerce and Industries in Jammu, Srinagar and Muzaffarabad –should give shape to a joint Chamber and pursue these issues with Governments of India and Pakistan.

The bottlenecks listed above are no way an indication of the insincerity of our respective governments. The governments indeed are sincere enough

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which is why today we are here together. These issues will have to be addressed to make this initiative successful. This trade should an inland exercise as good as it can be between Kashmir and Jammu or between Muzaffarabad and Rawalakote.

So what measures do you suggest for a smooth and practical Cross-LoC trade?

First and foremost requirement of doing business with each other is free communication channels. Travel restrictions should be eased; telephone and postal services should be put in place. Making traders casual to the fortnightly bus service will eventually fail this process. Traders should be provided with permanent free travel permits and safe parting system so that they can move across the Line of Control at their own convenience in their own vehicles. Branches of banks should be opened in each others' territory and dual currency (Pakistani and India) should be allowed for exchanges. Dual currency system is a respectable way of honouring sanctity of Cross-LoC trade as dealing in Dollars or Euros will give an impression of trading between two sovereign countries which can worsen things diplomatically. And most important requirement is that an enabling infrastructure should come up on both sides of Line of Control as also on way to each trade destination.

Business delegation from Pak and their J&K counterparts at an industiral exhibition in Jammu

to be sustained in long terms. If no tariff is charges, the trade can touch any heights but Ministries of Finance and Commerce will certainly go wary about this. And if tariff is charged the volume will not expand as one would have expected. India and Pakistan are already trading through two routes –Wagah and Munabao. There has to be a balance between all routes. Currently the total trade volume between India and Pakistan is far less than the actual potential. You can see India is world's largest producers of tea and Pakistan one of the major consumers but still they don't trade in this sector directly.

Vice versa is the case with cotton. There are a lot of real and perceived barriers which will take a long time to go.

Experts on trade and economy argue that if pushed in proper perspective this Cross-LoC trade can be one billion dollar and its scope can expend beyond the boundaries of Jammu and Kashmir to India and Pakistan.

Cross-LoC trade has been initiated as a measure of peace process between India and Pakistan and a Confidence Building Measure on Kashmir. Can trade really bring peace?

This is an overenthusiastic observation and has to be viewed with caution. The intra-Kashmir trade has been decided to be a zero tariff regime which is difficult

Trade alone is of no help. I am of the opinion that agreement on Cross-LoC trade underlines a strong urge between India and Pakistan to make Jammu and

Epilogue Ø 37 × November 2008

Kashmir a land of cooperation instead of a land of conflict as it has been for years. But sir, here we must understand that burying real issues under carpet and feeling happy over cosmetic measures may backfire at some stage.

The peace process between India and Pakistan must continue to resolve Kashmir issue and trade can used as a multiplier to the peace efforts and not a solution of the problems.

What are your major fears?

Our fears are obvious. India and Pakistan have a history of agreeing upon many Confidence Building Measures but all of them could not be sustained. The hurry in which this Cross-LoC trade has been given green signal indicates some motives of appeasement. We fear a slowdown and eventually collapse of the trade ties after ceremonial launch. This is the kind of impression we have obtained here in Jammu and Kashmir under the prevailing circumstances and in the backdrop of whatever has reportedly happened over past few months.

- Zafar Choudhary