Special Report 23 JULY Epic research 2018

Special Report 23-July-2018

Global markets at a glance US stocks slipped on Thursday after earnings disappointed and trade jitters intensified on fears that the European Union could slap retaliatory tariffs on goods imported from the United States. Officials from the EU Trade Commission are said to be preparing a list of tit-for-tat trade actions in response to proposed US tariffs on EU cars ahead of next week's talks in Washington.Automakers said tariffs on US cars and car parts could raise vehicle prices by USD 83 billion annually. Ford Motor Co and General Motors Co were down 0.5 percent and 1.0 percent, respectively.Manufacturers in all 12 districts of the US Federal Reserve are worried about the impact of the trade dispute, according the central bank's Beige Book report released on Wednesday.

Asian stocks eked out modest gains on Friday as investor caution prevailed amid concerns about the European Union imposing retaliatory tariffs on US goods while US President Donald Trump's criticism of Federal Reserve policy knocked the dollar. MSCI's broadest index of AsiaPacific shares outside Japan inched up 0.1 percent.Australian stocks added 0.5 percent and South Korea's KOSPI edged up 0.07 percent. Japan's Nikkei reversed earlier modest losses to rise 0.2 percent, lifted as the dollar came off lows versus the yen.

Previous day Roundup The Nifty after opening flat gained strength in the morning trade itself and reclaimed psychological 11,000-mark despite tepid global cues on Friday.The index managed to hold the same level at close, forming small bullish candle on the daily charts and Doji Cross kind of pattern on the weekly scale.Index has got stuck in between 10,923 to 11,078 zones from last eight trading sessions and requires a range breakout to commence the next leg of rally, adding the flat close on week on basis with a Doji candle which indicates a tug of war while decline is being bought in the market.

Index stats The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial in dices performed as follow; Commodities[-9.35pts], Consumption[-32.05pts],PSE[-23.20pts],CPSE[13.90pts],Energy[111.00pts],FMCG[68.50pts],Auto[ 46.30pts],Pharma[145.35pts],IT[211.55pts],Metal[ 12.40pts],Realty[3.20 pts], Fin Serv sector[61.85pts].

World Indices Index

Value

% Change

25,058.12

-0.03

S&P500

2,803.25

-0.07

NASDAQ FTSE100

7,366.00 7,678.79

-0.02 -0.07

22,697.88 28,224.48

-0.29 0.76

DJI

NIKKEI HANG SENG

Top Gainers Company

CMP

Change

% Chg

Bajaj Finance

2,721.35

201.15

7.98

Bajaj Finserv

6,663.95

367.05

5.83

Sun Pharma

560.10

15.15

2.78

Tech Mahindra

659.45

17.25

2.69

Cipla

625.80

15.70

2.57

CMP

Change

% Chg

2,839.60 275.40 202.40 388.85

-275.40 -9.00 -5.80 -9.45

-8.84 -3.16 -2.79 -2.37

157.95

-3.80

-2.35

Top Losers Company

Bajaj Auto HPCL Vedanta BPCL ONGC

Stocks at 52 Week’s HIGH Symbol

Prev. Close

Change

%Chg

21722.15

1377.85

6.34

29.7

5.9

19.87

BAJAJFINSV

6296.9

363.2

5.77

BAJFINANCE

2520.2

201.75

8.01

617.5

64.3

10.41

3MINDIA ADANIGREEN

BANDHANBNK

Stocks at 52 Week’s LOW Symbol

8KMILES A2ZINFRA ABAN ABB ADORWELD

Prev. Close

Change

%Chg

341.65 19.8 102.2 1157.6 270.5

-34.15 -0.1 0.1 -25.6 -2.3

-10 -0.51 0.1 -2.21 -0.85

Indian Indices Company

CMP

Change

% Chg

NIFTY

11010.20

53.10

0.48

SENSEX

36496.37

145.14

0.40

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Special Report 23-July-2018

RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE] 1.SUNPHARMA [FUTURE ] After breaking its previous support level of 547 the particular script has rebounded from its another support level of 530,and it has clsoed above its resistance level of 560,if today pharma sector shows some positivity then sunpharma will surely continue its uptrend , so you can buy SUNPHARMA FUTURE AROUND 561-562 TGT 573-590 SL BELOW 555.

2.YESBANK [FUTURE] After breaking its resistance level of 344 on 5july the particular counter has made a bullish trend and continued upto the level of 391, at this level a bearish harmi candle can be found with stockhastic indicator is above 90, this is an overbought condition with chance of reversal so we advice to SELL YESBANK AROUND 385-384 TGT 380-375 SL ABOVE 388.

STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH] CENTURYPLY [CASH] From the daily chart its clear that the particular script is getting support at its important level of 227, on 19 july 2018 it made a spinning top candle which is a reversal candle with a volume of 2.47 lakh after that it clsoed around its resistance level of 238 , if today’s trading session it breaks this resistance level then a good buying opportunity can be grabbed so we advise to BUY CENTURYPLY AROUND 238.50-239 TGT 242-248 SL BELOW 236.

MACRO NEW  Trends on SGX Nifty indicate an absolutely flat start to the market on Monday morning. The Nifty futures are currently trading over 11,000-mark, with a gain of 1 point on the Singaporean exchange.  Earnings season has kicked off and companies will be declaring their numbers for the June quarter. Among the 35 names that will announce them are ACC, Delta Corp, Granules India, Hindustan Zinc, ICICI Securities, L&T Infotech, Tejas Networks and United Spirits, among others.  The US dollar is expected to remain bullish until middle of next month, and equity and bond outflows from emerging markets are also likely to stay strong, says a Morgan Stanley report. The global financial services major is "neutral" on rupee and forecasts rupee at 70.3 per US dollar in the third quarter of this year (July-September). The global brokerage further said that oil prices are expected to fall as global oil supply increases and this should provide a "tailwind for rupee and moderate the RBI's concern about inflation accelerating".  US President Donald Trump on Friday said he was ready to impose tariffs on all USD 500 billion of imported goods from China, threatening to escalate a clash over trade policy that has unnerved financial markets.

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Special Report 23-July-2018

STOCKS IN NEWS

MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION Symbol

Optio Strike n Price Type

LTP

Traded Volume (Contracts)

Open Interest

NIFTY

CE

11,000

83

2,53,990

37,01,700

NIFTY

CE

11,100 36.25

2,22,523

37,88,250

BANKNIFTY

CE

27,000

150

1,78,458

NIFTY

CE

11,200

12.4

1,48,296

31,64,025

BAJFINANCE

CE

2,700 67.85

15,543

3,43,000

RELIANCE

CE

1,140

12.5

14,463

14,45,000

RELIANCE

CE

1,120

22.5

12,625

16,24,000

INFY

CE

1,360 12.35

11,074

8,21,400

MARUTIACTIVE PUT CE OPTION 9,000 111.5 5,823 MOST



Just Dial: Q1 profit rises to Rs 38.53 crore versus Rs 38.16 crore; revenue increases to Rs 211.43 crore versus Rs 190.04 crore (YoY).



Bata: Q1 profit rises 36.6 percent at Rs 82.5 crore versus Rs 60.4 crore; revenue increases 8.3 percent to Rs 797.3 crore versus Rs 736.1 crore (YoY).

9,37,240 NIFTY FUTURE

2,83,500

Symbol

Optio Strike n Price Type

LTP

Traded Volume (Contracts)

Open Interest

NIFTY

PE

10,900

31.5

2,00,889

46,14,450

NIFTY

PE

11,000

58

1,99,444

47,56,650

BANKNIFTY

PE

26,500

57.4

1,14,874

6,55,920

NIFTY

PE

10,800

19.3

1,12,271

47,71,500

BAJAJ-AUTO

PE

2,800

44

9,012

94,500

RELIANCE

PE

1,100

6.2

8,327

18,92,000

BAJAJ-AUTO

PE

2,900

100

7,679

72,500

INFY

PE

1,340

10

6,605

4,06,800

From the daily chart its clear that the Nifty future is continuosly rebounding from its major support level of 10940 since seven trading session it has never breaked this level, it had shown aome profit booking in the mid week session ,but on the last trading session it again rebounded from its crcuial support level of 10940 ,so here you can maintain a long position around the level of 11040-11060 for the posibble target of 12000-12050 with strict Stoploss below 11000.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS BUY

SELL

No. of Contracts

Amount in Crores

INDEX FUTURES

23925

2110.62

35246

3096.11

INDEX OPTIONS

501190

45250.38

504545

STOCK FUTURES

216975

14875.28

STOCK OPTIONS

140782

10894.43

OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY

No. of Amount in No. of Contracts Crores Contracts

Amount in Crores

NET AMOUNT

328968

27514.72

-985.4945

45532.14

894033

75856.08

-281.7658

208146

14281.02

1132704

79759.03

594.2573

145465

11221.69

123570

8385.27

-327.2656 -1000.2686

INDICES

R2

R1

PIVOT

S1

S2

NIFTY

11079.00

11044.00

10995.00

10960.00

10911.00

BANKNIFTY

27073.00

26973.00

26845.00

26745.00

26617.00

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Special Report 23-July-2018

RECOMMENDATIONS GOLD TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GOLD AUG FUT ABOVE 29970 TGT 30020 30070 SL BELOW 29720 SELL GOLD AUG FUT BELOW 29700 TGT 29650 29600 SL ABOVE 29750

SILVER TRADING STRATEGY: BUY SILVER SEP FUT ABOVE 38515 TGT 38560 38600 SL BELOW 38470 SELL SILVER SEP FUT BELOW 38200 TGT 38150 38100 SL ABOVE 38250

COMMODITY ROUNDUP Gold carved out some gains after testing fresh 12 month low as investor sentiment was rattled following a continued escalation in global trade worries. US President Donald Trump indicated that he is ready to impose tariffs on $500 billion worth of Chinese goods to the US if China does not comply on its trade policies noted media reports.

Meanwhile, global mining major Newmont Mining Corp has announced the completion of the Northwest Exodus project in Nevada, according to media reports. This is likely to add between 50,000 and 75,000 ounces of gold production per year and lower Carlin's all-in sustaining costs by approximately $25 per ounce during the first five years of operation, Newmont stated. The underground infrastructure also provides exploration platforms for potential future supply growth. Newmont noted that the project is expected to extend the mine life from the Exodus underground operation in the Carlin North area for 10 years. COMEX Gold closed at $1232 per ounce, up 0.65% on the day. MCX Gold closed at Rs 29900 per 10 grams, almost unchanged on the day.

Southern Silver Exploration Corp reported an expansion of the exploration program at the CLM West portion of its Cerro Las Minitas project in Durango, Mexico with the mobilization of a second core drill to begin the next phase of the current US$3 million, 2018 exploration program on the project. The second drill will focus on the discovery and delineation of major Ag-Au quartz vein systems within the more recently acquired CLM West claim. Southern Silver Exploration Corp. is a precious metals exploration and development company with a focus on the discovery of world-class mineral deposits in north-central Mexico and the southern USA. The Company engages in the acquisition, exploration and development either directly or through joint-venture relationships in mineral properties in major jurisdictions.

Indian Copper was trading up due to bottom fishing in the session on Friday. Earlier in the week, Metals have sold-off over the past six weeks on concerns that an escalating trade conflict between China and the U.S. could hurt the global economy and dent demand for raw materials.

This has seen the dollar surge, particularly against the yuan.Earlier Friday, China's central bank had weakened its daily reference rate for the currency by the most in two years, making imports more pricey for the top consumer of raw materials.

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Special Report 23-July-2018

RECOMMENDATIONS GUARGUM5 BUY GUARGUM OCT ABOVE 9400 TGT 9450 9500 SL BELOW 9350 SELL GUARGUM BELOW 9230 TGT 9180 9130 SL ABOVE 9280

NCDEX INDICES Index

Value

% Change

Barley Castor Seed Chana Coriander Cotton Seed Oilcake Guar Seed 10 MT

1547.5 4435 4150 4532 1707 4005

1.01 -1 2.29 -2.16 -0.67 -2.85

Jeera

18355

-1.56

4101 3528 7142

0.02 0.31 2.00

Mustardseed Soy Bean Turmeric

USDA forecasts that China's soybean imports will increase to 100.5 MMT in MY18/19 from the estimated 97 MMT in MY17/18. This forecast, is 2.5 MMT lower than USDA's June forecast. Due to the combination of the moderate increase in domestic soybean production, together with the slowdown in growth of soybean meal use, a net growth of 3.5 MMT of soybean imports in MY18/19 is expected to meet the Chinese demand growth for protein meals.

DHANIYA BUY DHANIYA AUG ABOVE 4740 TGT 4800 4850 SL BELOW 4700 SELL DHANIYA BELOW 4600 TGT 4550 4500 SL ABOVE 4650

U.S. soybean exports to China continue to face strong competition from soybean exports from South America.

Excessive soybean stocks and a fall in the soybean price in Brazil attributed to the 14.2 MMT of Brazilian soybean exports to China in the first half of MY17/18. This is significantly higher than the 5.2 MMT during the same period in MY16/17.

Despite China's net growth of over 2 MMT of soybean imports in the first half of MY17/18, total soybean imports from the United States fell to 24.4 MMT in this period, down from the 31.6 MMT in the previous year. Chinese importers note that Brazilian soybeans have a one percent higher protein content than U.S. soybeans. Importers were previously willing to pay a slightly higher price for soybeans with a higher protein content, but with the drop in the price of Brazilian soybeans, exports are now surging As per official data, Ukraine supplied some 1 MMT of wheat to foreign markets in May 2017/18. This was down 10% from April (1.1 MMT) but up 2% from May 2016/17 (986.8 KMT). In July-May 2017/18, wheat exports totaled 16.3 MMT, or 3% less than in the same period in MY 2016/17.

Ukrainian wheat shipments to the European Union and Indonesia grew substantially in the current season. In the period under review, exports to Indonesia increased to 2.1 MMT that was 31% more than in the whole of MY 2016/17.

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Special Report 23-July-2018

RBI Reference Rate Currency

Rate Currency

Rate

Rupee- $

68.5350 Yen

60.9625

Euro

80.3775 GBP

90.5900

USD/INR BUY USDINR ABOVE 69.20 TGT 69.50/69.80 SL BELOW 68.90 SELL USDINR BELOW 68.50 TGT 68.35/67.40 SL ABOVE 68.65

GBP/INR BUY GBPINR ABOVE 90.10 TGT 90.40/90.70 SL BELOW 89.80 SELL GBPINR BELOW 89.60 TGT 89.30/89.00 SL ABOVE 89.90

The rupee today staged an impressive rebound from lifetime low levels, surging by 21 paise to end at 68.84 against the US dollar on suspected the central bank's intervention to check volatility in currency markets.

The sell-off in the rupee accelerated in early trade, with the local unit plunging to a new historic low of 69.13 before recouping losses. Suspected intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) through state-run banks and short-selling the dollar by some foreign banks predominantly triggered the recovery momentum.

The US dollar has gained more than 5 per cent in the past three months on expectations the US central bank will keep raising interest rates in the coming months. The US Fed has raised interest rates five times since Trump took office in January 2017.

Forex sentiment turned highly volatile initially tracking the Chinese yuan's fall to its weakest in more than a year, as a trade dispute between the world's two largest economies intensified.

Most Asian currencies were trading flat to higher against the dollar. In the meantime, crude prices were little changed and set for a sharp weekly drop on concerns over oversupply and the ongoing trade conflict between the US and China. The benchmark Brent was trading at USD 72.55 a barrel in early Asian trade.

Worrying development on escalation of trade conflict between the world's two biggest economic powers with the US President's latest salvo were largely weighed on the currency and financial markets worldwide with investors on edge awaiting the next developments.

The response among major currencies, however, was fairly limited. The Chinese government retaliated immediately against US President Donald Trump's USD 34 billion tariff package with a simultaneous set of counter measures and accused Washington of starting "the largest trade war in history".

The sudden fall in global crude oil prices is propping up more things than just the stocks of motor-fuel retailers.

The rupee should retrace lost ground against the dollar if Saudi Arabia were to raise output further, triggering a meaningful slide in India's energy costs. “Lower crude prices will be a positive for the Indian economy at large and will reflect in the currency too,� said Vijay Santhanam, head of risk solutions group, Barclays India.

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Special Report 23-July-2018

NEXT WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS TIME (ET)

REPORT

PERIOD

ACTUAL

FORECAST

PREVIOUS

--

-0.15

TUESDAY, JULY 24

TUESDAY, JULY 24

--

55.4

WEDNESDAY, JULY 25

WEDNESDA Y, JULY 25

670,000

689,000

MONDAY, JULY 23 8:30 am

Chicago Fed national activity index

June 10 am

TUESDAY, JULY 24

TUESDAY, JULY 24

TUESDAY, JULY 24

9:45 am

Markit manufacturing PMI flash

July

TUESDAY, JULY 24

9:45 am WEDNESDA Y, JULY 25

WEDNESDAY, JULY 25

WEDNESD AY, JULY 25

10 am

New home sales

June

WEDNESDAY, JULY 25

THURSDAY, JULY 26 8:30 am

Weekly jobless claims

7/14

215,000

207,000

8:30 am

Durable goods orders

June

2.9%

-0.4%

8:30 am

Core capital equipment orders

June

--

0.3%

8:30 am

Advance trade in goods

June

-$69.1 bln

-$64.8bln

FRIDAY, JULY 27

FRIDAY, JULY 27

4.0%

2.0%

10 am FRIDAY, JULY 27

FRIDAY, JULY 27

8:30 am

Gross domestic product

FRIDAY, JULY 27 Disclaimer Q2

FRIDAY, JULY 27

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