Special report-13-mar-2019-epic-research

Special Report

13–MAR-2019

Global markets at a glance

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq rose on Tuesday after tame inflation data underscored the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance on interest rate hikes, but the Dow ended lower as Boeing’s shares sank for a second day after one of its planes crashed in Ethiopia.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 94.32 points, or 0.37 percent, to 25,556.56, the S&P 500 gained 8.41 points, or 0.30 percent, to 2,791.71 and the Nasdaq Composite added 32.97 points, or 0.44 percent, to 7,591.03.

Asian share markets got off to a subdued start on Wednesday after a mixed finish on Wall Street, while a frazzled pound awaited its fate ahead of yet another make-or-break parliamentary vote on Brexit.MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased 0.1 percent in slow trade. Japan’s Nikkei dipped 0.3 percent and Australia’s main index slipped 0.4 percent. E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 were off 0.08 percent.Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a flat to negative opening for the broader index in India.

PREVIOUS DAY ROUNDOFF Indian equity markets continued its upward momentum with Bank Nifty index closing at a lifetime high level. Bank Nifty index continued its winning streak for the 6th day in a row, closing ~1.5% higher, led by a strong rally in HDFC Bank, ICICI & Kotak Bank.Nifty IT index remained under the selling pressure for the 4th day in a row backed by a strong appreciating INR against the US Dollar. IndusInd Bank & Bharti Airtel added fresh long positions with a fresh spike in open interest, while Apollo Hospital added fresh short positions. Escorts 860CE added massive open positions to tune of ~2925% along with a 2x surge in the option premium, clearly indicating a continuation of the current impulse move. Market breadth ended in the favour of advances with the advance/decline ratio closed at 2:1x.

Index stats The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial in dices performed as follow; Commodities[+15.8pts], Consumption[+49.80pts],PSE[+6.35pts],CPSE[ 3.15pts],Energy[+220.20pts],FMCG[+224.40pts],Auto [+20.20pts],Pharma[+119.75pts],IT[-3.95pts],Metal [+14.20pts],Realty[+6.25pts], Fin Serv sector[+174.40pts].

World Indices Index

Value

% Change

DJI

25554

-0.38

S&P500

2791

+0.30

NASDAQ

7591

+0.44

FTSE100

7151

+0.29

21188 28786

-1.47 -0.46

NIKKEI HANG SENG

Top Gainers Company

CMP

Change

% Chg

Bharti Airtel

351.8

18

5.39

1,569.05

54.45

3.6

388.2

12.35

3.29

1,388.90

42.35

3.15

361.05

9.75

2.78

CMP

Change

% Chg

22,461.95 2,753.05 316.35 151.85 706.95

-510.5 -38 -3.35 -1.15 -4.3

-2.22 -1.36 -1.05 -0.75 -0.6

IndusInd Bank ICICI Bank Larsen Adani Ports

Top Losers Company

Eicher Motors Bajaj Finance Bharti Infratel ONGC Infosys

Stocks at 52 Week’s HIGH Symbol

Prev. Close

Change

%Chg

AAVAS

1,260.00

12.3

0.99

ABFRL

236.9

1.1

0.49

ADANIGAS

122.2

2.5

2.13

ANUP

605

28.8

5

ARVINDFASN

684

32.55

5

Prev. Close

Change

%Chg

14.85

0

0

329.25

-18.55

-5.32

1.85 1.55 1.8

-0.05 0 -0.05

-2.63 0 -2.7

Stocks at 52 Week’s LOW Symbol

ABMINTLTD BAJAJCON DNAMEDIA HOTELRUGBY JAIHINDPRO

Indian Indices Company

CMP

Change

% Chg

NIFTY

11301.20

+133.15

+1.19

SENSEX

37535.66

+481.56

+1.30

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Special Report

13–MAR-2019

RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE]

STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH]

1. CANFINHOME [FUTURE ] CANFINHOME Future closed at last five month high . Closing of stock above its 200 DEMA & stock also give neck line breakout of double bottom bullish pattern . Our recommendation is to Buy stock future in the range 313-310 for the target of 317/325 Sl below 305 .Strong volume seen in NBFC segment .

IIFL[CASH] IIFL has double bottom chart pattern on daily chart, in this recovery Mindcap and Smallcap Index given strong pull back but this stock is still in pressure. Here we can see the fresh buying is coming with strong volume as compare to red candle and last seven trading session .Buy Above 404405 with stop loss of 400 for target of 410/425 .

2. TATAGLOBAL [FUTURE] TATAGLOBAL future looking bullish on daily chart it has given breakout of trendline . Stock is traded below 100 & 200 DEMA but for a intra day & as well as positional view we may expect a bull rally in the stock.Our recommendation is to Buy 205-206 Target 209/220 Sl below 200 .After analysis of derivate data long position made by traders .

MACRO NEWS 

India's factory output grew 1.7 percent in January, lower than previous month's 2.4 percent, and 7.5 percent in January last year. Factory output measured by the index of industrial production (IIP) is the closest approximation to gauge business activity in the economy.Manufacturing sector output, which accounts for more than three-fourths of the entire index, grew at 1.3 percent in January, a sharp fall from an 8.7 percent growth a year ago for the same period, symptomatic of a slowdown in investment activities.



India's retail inflation stood at 2.57 percent in February, marginally higher than the previous month’s 2.05 percent, and sharply lower than 4.4 percent in the same month last year, primarily aided by low food prices. The latest price data released by CSO on March 12 showed that consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation, which measures changes in shop-end prices, remained comfortably within RBI's target level of 4 percent.Food prices continued to fall with consumer food price inflation, which is a gauge to measure changes in kitchen budgets, contracted 0.66 percent in February.

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Special Report

13–MAR-2019

STOCKS IN NEWS

MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION Symbol

Optio Strike n Price Type

LTP

Traded Volume (Contracts)

Open Interest

Jet Airways: Parborrowing availed by the company, for

BANKNIFTY

CE

28,500

99

9,66,991

BANKNIFTY

CE

28,400

147

7,35,000

working capital purposes, falling due on March 11, hasbeen delayed owing to temporary liquidity 4,79,380 constraints and the company has engaged with the lender in relation to the same.

2,24,220

BANKNIFTY

CE

28,300

212

6,32,419

1,96,860

RELIANCE

CE

1,340

25.9

RELIANCE

CE

1,360

18

INDUSINDBK

CE

1,600 22.75

RELIANCE

CE

1,320

36.2

INDUSINDBK

CE

1,550

43.3

MARUTIACTIVE PUT CE OPTION 9,000 111.5 MOST LTP

NIFTY FUTURE 10,10,500 Last trading session Nifty Future close on positive note 9,974 7,43,500 and gaining around 1.20% with bulish candlestick in daily chart,after announce central election news,And if we go 8,707 3,53,400 technically on cahrt we can seen clearly cross major 7,839 6,40,000 resistance level and close above this level , and also trendline breakout in daily chart, and close daily chart in 7,432 3,49,800 bullish signal It’s clearly indicate nifty go upside ahead, 5,823 2,83,500 and also 2019 is election year so we can expect Govt announce new policy some related sectors so keep that Traded Open in mind and watch all PSUBanks,infra pharma sector Volume Interest movements. And from a data perspective create broader (Contracts) range in option traders, So we can follow buy on decline 5,57,917 5,70,100 strateg, So we advise you to buy around 1150-11160 for the targets of 11250-11300 With SL of below 11000.

5,10,845 7,24,860 11,449

Symbol

Optio Strike n Price Type

BANKNIFTY

PE

28,200

52

BANKNIFTY

PE

28,000

27.2

BANKNIFTY

PE

28,100

36.7

4,66,858

3,77,140

RELIANCE

PE

1,300 15.35

7,960

7,56,000

RELIANCE

PE

1,280

10.5

5,876

7,03,000

RELIANCE

PE

1,320 22.15

4,537

3,50,500

RELIANCE

PE

1,260

7.1

3,779

7,18,500

ICICIBANK

PE

380

5.25

3,485

23,89,750

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS BUY No. of Contracts

SELL Amount in Crores

OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY

No. of Amount in No. of Contracts Crores Contracts

Amount in Crores

NET AMOUNT

INDEX FUTURES

30815

2405.80

32595

2418.53

231098

18032.55

-12.7246

INDEX OPTIONS

1623504

104752.37

1618133

104271.94

781890

59613.46

480.4295

STOCK FUTURES

189402

11263.54

175216

10512.84

1403164

87834.46

750.7072

STOCK OPTIONS

98038

6038.46

98006

6027.41

112363

6842.27

11.057 1229.4691

INDICES

R2

R1

PIVOT

S1

S2

NIFTY

11,376

11338

11282

11245

11189

BANKNIFTY

28703

28573

28358

28227

28012

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Special Report

13–MAR-2019

RECOMMENDATIONS GOLD TRADING STRATEGY: Gold BUY ABOVE 32170 TARGET 32230/32270 SL 32100 Gold Sell BELOW 32100 TARGET 32050/32000 SL 32200

SILVER TRADING STRATEGY: Silver BUY ABOVE 38840 TARGET 38900/38930 SL 38740 Silver Sell BELOW 38790 TARGET 38740/38680 SL 38850

COMMODITY ROUNDUP Oil rose to around $67 a barrel on Tuesday, supported by Saudi Arabia's plan for further voluntary supply curbs in April and by a cut in oil exports from Venezuela due to a power outage.Saudi Arabia, seeking to drain a supply glut and support prices, plans in April to keep its oil output well below the level required of it as part of an OPEC-led supply cutting deal, a Saudi official said on Monday. crude LCOc1 , the global benchmark, rose by 70 cents to $67.28 a barrel at 0958 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1added 57 cents to $57.36."This shows Saudi Arabia's resolve to keep the oil market balanced by keeping oil supply tight," said Carsten Fritsch, analyst at Commerzbank (DE:CBKG)."Additional buoyancy has come from news that the massive power outage in Venezuela is also hampering the country's oil exports."Crude has rallied this year after the Organizaton of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, returned to supply cuts as of Jan. 1.Saudi Arabia has voluntarily cut its supply by more than the deal requires and in April will keep output "well below" 10 million bpd, the Saudi official said - below the 10.311 million bpd that the kingdom had agreed to pump."We see a tightening underlying physical crude balance as a key pillar of support for outright prices at this point in the year," said analysts at JBC Energy in a report.A host of involuntary supply curbs in OPEC members caused by unrest in Libya, and U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, have also helped to boost prices.

Gold edged higher on Tuesday, supported by a retreat in the dollar after an apparent breakthrough in Brexit negotiations between the European Union and Britain, although rallying equities capped bullion's gains.Spot gold XAU= rose 0.2 percent to $1,295.89 per ounce as of 1055 GMT, while U.S. gold futures GCv1 were up 0.4 percent at $1,296.20.Some dollar weakness emerged due to the Brexit talks, in turn providing short-term support to gold prices, Capital Economics analyst Ross Strachan said.The dollar .DXY fell from near three-month highs hit in the previous session, making bullion cheaper for holders of other currencies, while sterling soared. USD/Capping gold's rise, last-minute tweaks to Britain's arrangement for leaving the EU triggered gains in global stocks, having soothed investor worries about a possible no-deal exit. MKTS/GLOB

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Special Report

13–MAR-2019

RECOMMENDATIONS GUARGUM5 TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GUARGUM APR ABOVE 8750 TARGET 8765/8785/8815 SL 8690 SELL GUARGUM APR BELOW 8700 TARGET 8685/8665/8635 SL 8760

DHANIYA TRADING STRATEGY: BUY CORIANDER APR 6650 TARGET 6665/6685/6710 SL 6590 SELL CORIANDER APR BELOW 6630 TARGET 6615/6595/6570 SL 6690

NCDEX INDICES Index

Value

% Change

Barley

1670

0.54

Castor Seed

5272

-0.04

Chana

4174

0.74

Coriander

6600

-0.26

Cotton Seed Oilcake

2038

0.79

Guar Seed 10 MT

4262.5

-0.36

Jeera

16025

0.69

Mustardseed

3844

-0.47

Soy Bean

3619

+0.36

Global wheat production is expected to rise 4% year-onyear to 757.4 million tonnes in 2019, with the EU and Russia contributing to most of the growth, the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) -- an inter-agency platform that assesses global food supplies and tracks price volatility, said in its latest report.In 2017, total world wheat production reached an all-time high of 759.4 million tonnes, data from AMIS' Market Monitor report showed. The estimates are a joint effort of the Food and Agriculture Organization and AMIS.The EU is expected to produce 149 million tonnes of wheat in 2019, up 8.36% from a six-year low of 137.4 million mt recorded in 2018. Favorable weather conditions combined with a larger planted area is expected to boost 2019 output, AMIS said.Russia, the top exporter of the grain, is expected to see its 2019 production rise by almost 10% from the previous year, according to the report.

Increased overall plantings and beneficial weather conditions are expected to push up production in the country, AMIS said.

State-run Food Corporation of India (FCI) has disposed of 2.97 lakh tonne of pulses, nearly the entire stock it procured in last two years, to various states and to bulk consumers, according to an official data.FCI had a stock of 2.98 lakh tonne of pulses procured at the minimum support price (MSP) during 2015-16 and 2016-17 marketing years (July-June).As per the latest data, the agency has cleared 2.97 lakh tonne of pulses comprising 'tur', 'masoor', 'moong' and 'urad' till February 2019.Of this, 2.36 lakh tonne was sold through electronic auction mode to bulk users, while the rest through states.Less than 800 tonne is left with FCI, which will also be disposed of, the data added.FCI is the central nodal agency that undertakes mainly the procurement and distribution of wheat and rice at the MSP.

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Special Report

13–MAR-2019

RBI Reference Rate Currency Rupee- $ Euro

Rate Currency

Rate

69.8050 Yen

62.8750

78.50 GBP

90.9925

USD/INR TRADING STRATEGY: BUY USDINR FUTURE ABOVE 69.95 TARGET 70.05/70.15 SL 69.75 SELL USDINR FUTURE BELOW 69.75 TARGET 69.65/69.55 SL 69.95

The rupee managed to break below seven-week range and in the process, it breached below the low of the bullish bar seen in the third week of January.The Indian rupee managed to break below seven-week range and in the process, it breached below the low of the bullish bar seen in the third week of January.However, in Friday’s trade, it marked a low of 69.81 before staging a sharp rally.

Despite Friday’s fag-end recovery, it continues to face hurdle around its downward sloping trendline, suggesting short-lived moves. We expect, USD/INR to inch towards January 2019 low near 69.20 mark.The broader charts of Nifty IT index suggest weakness. It has reversed from PRZ of a bearish BAT pattern, indicating weakness after its recent underperformance.In this week’s decline of 3 percent, it also fell below the peak of the month of January 2019, signaling further declines.

GBP/INR TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GBPINR FUTURE ABOVE 91.10 TARGET 91.2200/91.3500 SL 90.9500 SELL GBPINR FUTURE BELOW 90.90 TARGET 90.78/90.65 SL 91.05

The U.S. dollar was little changed in early European hours on Monday, as investors looked ahead to the latest U.S. retail sales report for further hints on the strength of the economy.The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, held steady at 97.29 by 4:30AM ET (08:30 GMT). The index rose to 97.66 last Thursday, its best level since Dec. 14 last year.

Against the Japanese yen, the dollar was a tad higher at 111.25, bouncing off the prior session's one-week low of 110.77.Economic reports will remain in focus in the week ahead, after data on Friday showed that U.S. job growth almost stalled in February, with the world's top economy creating a measly 20,000 jobs, far fewer than expected by analysts.But traders found some hope in figures showing the U.S. employment rate slipped back below 4% and average hourly earnings accelerated by 0.4%.

The Commerce Department will release data on retail sales for January at 8:30AM ET (12:30 GMT).Elsewhere, the British pound was down 0.1% to $1.2998 after briefly dipping to a near three-week low of $1.2960 on nervousness over Brexit.

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Special Report

13–MAR-2019

Date

Commodity/ Currency Pairs

12/03/19

NCDEX DHANIYA

APR

BUY

6220

12/03/19

NCDEX DHANIYA

APR

Sell

12/03/19

NCDEX GUARGUM5

MAR

12/03/19

NCDEX GUARGUM5

12/03/19

Contract Strategy

Entry Level

Stop Loss

Remark

6260-6310

6170

NOT EXECUTED

6130

6080-6030

6200

NOT EXECUTED

BUY

8400

8500-8600

8270

TARGET

MAR

SELL

8250

8150-8050

8370

NOT ECECUTED

MCX GOLD

MAR

BUY

32250

32270-32300

32200

TARGET

12/03/19

MCX GOLD

MAR

SELL

32200

32170-32150

32250

TARGET

12/03/19

MCX SILVER

MAR

BUY

38690

38720/38750

38640

SL HIT

12/03/19

MCX SILVER

MAR

SELL

38640

38600/38575

38675

TARGET

Entry Level

Target

Stop Loss

Remark

Target

Date

Scrip

CASH/ FUTURE/ Strategy OPTION

12/03/19

NIFTY

FUTURE

BUY

11150-11160

11250-11300

11000

NOT EXECUTED

12/03/19

CANFINHOME

FUTURE

BUY

296

317-331

291

NOT EXECUTED

12/03/19

M&M FIN

FUTURE

BUY

442-444

450/455/465

438

SL HIT

12/03/19

IIFL

CASH

BUY

370-372

380/395/410

365

NOT EXECUTED

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Special Report

13–MAR-2019

NEXT WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS TIME (ET)

PERIO ACTUAL D

REPORT

FORECAST

PREVIOUS

THE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN WILL DELAY THE RELEASE OF SOME DATA THIS WEEK. MONDAY, MARCH 11 8:30 am

Retail sales* (new date)

Jan.

-1.2%

8:30 am

Retail sales ex-autos* (new date)

Jan.

-1.8%

10 am

Business inventories* (new date)

Dec.

-0.1%

11 am

Survey of consumer expectations

Feb.

TUESDAY, MARCH 12 6 am

NFIB small-business index

Feb.

101.2

8:30 am

Consumer price index

Feb.

0.0%

8:30 am

Core CPI

Feb.

0.2%

2 pm

Federal budget

Feb.

DELAYED

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 13 8:30 am

Durable goods orders* (new date)

Jan.

1.2%

8:30 am

Core capital goods orders* (new date)

Jan.

-1.0%

8:30 am

Producer price index

Feb.

-0.1%

9:45 10 am amMarkit manufacturing index flash Construction spending* (newNov. date)

--

55.7

9:45 am

--

54.8

Markit services index flash

THURSDAY, MARCH 14

Nov.

8:30 am

Weekly jobless claims

3/9

--

8:30 am

Import prices

Feb.

0.5%

8:30 am

Retail sales*

Feb.

10 am

New home sales* (new date)

Jan.

10 am

Business inventories

Jan.

DELAYED -DELAYED

FRIDAY, MARCH 15 8:30 am

Empire state manufacturing index

March

8.8

9:15 am

Industrial production

Feb.

-0.6%

9:15 am

Capacity utilization

Feb.

78.2%

10 am

Job openings

Jan.

7.4 mln

10 am

Consumer sentiment

March

95.5

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Special Report

13–MAR-2019

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Sachin Yadav

Digitally signed by Sachin Yadav DN: cn=Sachin Yadav c=IN o=Personal Reason: I am the author of this document Location: Date: 2019-03-13 09:07+05:30

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