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Special Report 12-July-2018

Global markets at a glance US stocks fell on Wednesday, breaking a four-session streak of gains after Washington's threat to impose tariffs on an additional $200 billion worth of Chinese goods fanned trade war fears, while a sharp drop in oil prices hit energy shares. China responded to US President Donald Trump's threats by accusing the United States of bullying and warned that it would hit back.

World Indices Index

Value

% Change

24,700.45

-0.88

S&P500

2,782.75

0.32

NASDAQ FTSE100

7,716.61 7,591.96

-0.55 -1.32

22,249.15 28,808.03

0.89 0.41

DJI

NIKKEI HANG SENG

Top Gainers Industrial names including Boeing , 3M and Caterpillar , which have been among the hardest hit by the recent trade dispute, were among the Dow's biggest drags.

Company

CMP

Change

% Chg

1,979.90

104.80

5.59

317.15

11.85

3.88

Bajaj Auto

3,161.60

67.65

2.19

HUL

1,718.15

31.15

1.85

Infosys

1,320.45

19.05

1.46

TCS Bharti Infratel

Asian stocks remained under pressure on Thursday from fears of an escalation in the US-China trade war, while the dollar stood stall after rallying against its peers amid the turmoil in broader markets. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.25 percent.The index slumped 1 percent on Wednesday along with a slide in global equities after US President Donald Trump's threat of imposing tariffs on another USD 200 billion of Chinese goods deepened the trade row between the world's two largest economies. Previous day Roundup The Nifty50 which started on a mildly positive note failed to gain momentum seen in previous three consecutive sessions and closed flat on Wednesday. This as despite sharp weakness in global peers after the United States issued a new list of Chinese products worth USD 200 billion for potential 10 percent tariffs. The 50-share NSE Nifty index formed an indecisive pattern known as 'Doji' on the daily candlestick charts, which also resembles 'Spinning Top’ kind of pattern.The Nifty50 after opening at 10,956.40 traded in a range of 54 points (10,976.65-10,923.00) before closing 1 points higher at 10,948.30. Index stats The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial in dices performed as follow; Commodities[-50.70pts], Consumption[-13.55pts],PSE[-55.25pts],CPSE[41.55pts],Energy[45.7 0pts],FMCG[87.20pts],Auto [111.80pts],Pharma[-47.40pts],IT[313.70pts],Metal[105.20pts],Realty[0.25 pts], Fin Serv sector[-38.05pts].

Top Losers Company

CMP

Change

% Chg

UPL Coal India Hindalco Vedanta

603.45 264.80 220.80 218.10

-33.65 -13.65 -8.25 -7.95

-5.28 -4.90 -3.60 -3.52

54.05

-1.75

-3.14

Idea Cellular

Stocks at 52 Week’s HIGH Symbol

Prev. Close

Change

%Chg

31.1

0.75

2.41

ASIANPAINT

1370.45

-10.25

-0.75

AXISNIFTY

1101.58

2.2

0.2

580

-14.9

-2.57

7292.55

-16.55

-0.23

ADANIGREEN

BANDHANBNK BHARATRAS

Stocks at 52 Week’s LOW Symbol

ABMINTLTD ANKITMETAL ANTGRAPHIC ARIHANTSUP ASHIANA

Prev. Close

Change

%Chg

19.5 0.9 0.55 66.95 133.45

0 -0.05 -0.05 -2.9 -1.95

0 -5.56 -9.09 -4.33 -1.46

Indian Indices Company

CMP

Change

% Chg

NIFTY

10948.30

1.00

0.01

SENSEX

36265.93

26.31

0.07

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Special Report 12-July-2018

RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE] 1.BEML [FUTURE ] This script made a spinning top candle on 29 june then it started moving upward but just at its resistance level of 852 it has made a another spinning top candle here we can short around 836-834 tgt 825-815 sl above 842.

2.AUROPHARMA [FUTURE] The particular counter is moving in a bearing trend since 1 week but has closed just above its crucial support level of 602 here we can buy on reversal so we advice to BUY AUROPHARMA FUTURE AROUND 602-605 TGT 612-620 SL BELOW 596

STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH] LEMONTREE [CASH] From the daily chart its clear that this stock has breaked its 1week average volume and closed above its crucial resistance level of 77.20 here we can go long around 78.25-79 Tgt 82-86 sl below 76

MACRO NEW  Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a positive opening for the broader index in India, a rise of 27 points or 0.25 percent. Nifty futures were trading around 10,974level on the Singaporean Exchange.  China accused the United States of bullying and warned it would hit back after the Trump administration raised the stakes in their trade dispute, threatening 10 percent tariffs on USD 200 billion of Chinese goods.China’s commerce ministry said on Wednesday it was “shocked” and would complain to the World Trade Organisation, but did not immediately say how it would retaliate. In a statement, it called the U.S. actions “completely unacceptable”.  Brent crude rose more than USD 1 on Thursday as focus turned to a big drawdown in US stockpiles, recouping some of the market’s heavy losses from the previous session that had been sparked by news that Libya would resume oil exports. On Wednesday, the contract slumped 6.9 percent in its largest one-day percentage decline since Februay 9, 2016  The US dollar strengthened on Wednesday as the market put aside trade tension fears and focused on the Labor Department’s expectation-beating inflation report, which increased prospects that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates another two times this year.

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Special Report 12-July-2018

STOCKS IN NEWS

MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION Symbol

Optio Strike n Price Type

LTP

Traded Volume (Contracts)

Open Interest

NIFTY

CE

11,000

65.3

2,13,782

43,07,625

BANKNIFTY

CE

27,300

1.9

1,56,990

2,60,000

NIFTY

CE

10,900 117.65

1,31,760

26,23,725

TCS

CE

2,000

26.5

45,424

15,52,000

TCS

CE

1,950 47.55

24,213

7,54,000

TCS

CE

2,100

7.4

16,312

11,32,000

TCS

CE

2,050

13.6

13,822

9,58,000

TCS

CE

1,900

79

13,468

9,85,000

MARUTIACTIVE PUT CE OPTION 9,000 111.5 5,823 MOST Symbol

Optio Strike n Price Type

NIFTY

PE

10,900

BANKNIFTY

IDFC: Appoints Rinkoo Somani as interim chief financial officer.

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries' subisidiary filed lawsuit against Biofrontera Inc. in USA

NIFTY FUTURE

2,83,500

LTP

Traded Volume (Contracts)

86

1,69,268

PE

26,900 142.45

1,59,164

NIFTY

PE

10,800

55.5

1,56,892

TCS

PE

1,900

12.4

18,140

TCS

PE

1,850

5.6

11,925

TCS

PE

1,800

3.1

9,460

TCS

PE

1,875

7.85

8,829

TCS

PE

1,950

28

7,658

Open Interest

The Nifty50 which started on a mildly positive note failed 28,20,675 to gain momentum seen in previous three consecutive sessions and closed flat on Wednesday. This as despite 2,11,040 sharp weakness in global peers after the United States 47,14,650 issued a new list of Chinese products worth USD 200 16,33,500 billion for potential 10 percent tariffs. The 50-share NSE Nifty index formed an indecisive pattern known as 'Doji' on the daily candlestick charts, 11,05,500 which also resembles 'Spinning Top’ kind of pattern.We 5,03,000 recommend to SELL NIFTY FUTURE AROUND 1092010900 TGT 10850-10800 SL ABOVE 10970. 6,49,000 8,17,000

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS BUY

SELL

No. of Contracts

Amount in Crores

INDEX FUTURES

41112

3514.19

19431

1742.84

INDEX OPTIONS

482889

45916.63

489898

STOCK FUTURES

149044

10203.82

STOCK OPTIONS

88271

6459.24

OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY

No. of Amount in No. of Contracts Crores Contracts

Amount in Crores

NET AMOUNT

278297

23205.98

1771.3479

46503.87

650078

55037.82

-587.241

146351

9909.07

1137968

80393.76

294.748

89959

6532.22

83635

5783.70

-72.9782 1405.8767

INDICES

R2

R1

PIVOT

S1

S2

NIFTY

11002.00

10975.00

10949.00

10922.00

10896.00

BANKNIFTY

27006.00

26911.00

26842.00

26747.00

26678.00

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Special Report 12-July-2018

RECOMMENDATIONS GOLD TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GOLD AUG FUT ABOVE 30520 TGT 30570 30620 SL BELOW 30480 SELL GOLD AUG FUT BELOW 30240 TGT 30200 30150 SL ABOVE 30300

SILVER TRADING STRATEGY: BUY SILVER SEP FUT ABOVE 39750 TGT 39800 39850 SL BELOW 39700 SELL SILVER SEP FUT BELOW 39200 TGT 39150 39100 SL ABOVE 39250

COMMODITY ROUNDUP COMEX Gold slipped from a one week high as a recovery in US equities clubbed with cues from latest Fed minutes weighed on the metal after prices edged up from a seven month low. The US Federal Reserve is likely to go ahead with interest rate hikes despite mounting concerns about a possible trade war, according to the minutes of the Fed's June meeting. At that meeting, the Fed raised rates and projected four rate increases in 2018 instead of three previously planned. The central bank maintained its outlook for three rate hikes in 2019. MCX Gold futures ended around Rs 30560 per 10 grams after a modest recovery. Local demand is expected to edge up in second half of the year following the current economic momentum though a good monsoon is very much required to sustain rural earnings. Gold has not gained much prominence despite this mayhem of global trade front. Meanwhile, over the past decade, the technology sector has accounted for more than 380 tonnes of gold demand annually, a significant figure in itself and almost 13% ahead of central bank net purchases during the same period. Yet gold’s role in this vibrant and growing industry is broadly unrecognised and often misunderstood, according to Aram Shishmanian, CEO of World Gold Council (WGC). Copper snapped back sharply on Monday from near oneyear lows hit in the session, as a weak dollar forced short holders to cover positions even amid simmering trade war tension. London Metal Exchange copper rallied by 1.6 percent to $6,383.50 after prices slumped to $6,221.50 a tonne on Friday, which was the weakest since late July 2017. There is still huge tightness between the July-August copper contract, suggesting shorts may have to deliver into warehouses in the next week if they can. Indian Copper is set to rebound higher in today's opening session. The prices were down at Rs 431 per kg last week. Expectations for a jump towards Rs 435 per kg cannot to ruled out in Copper. The U.S. economy created more jobs than expected in June, but steady wage gains pointed to moderate inflation pressures that should keep the Federal Reserve on a path of gradual interest rate increases this year. The global economy is starting to show signs of strain from the ??? America First??? push of U.S President Donald Trump who will hear renewed pleas to step back from a broader trade war when he visits Europe in the coming week.

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Special Report 12-July-2018

RECOMMENDATIONS GUARGUM5 BUY GUARGUM ABOVE 8520 TGT 8570 8670 SL BELOW 8380 SELL GUARGUM BELOW 8350 TGT 8300 8200 SL ABOVE 8510

NCDEX INDICES Index

Value

% Change

Barley Castor Seed Chana Coriander Cotton Seed Oilcake Guar Seed 10 MT

1498 4500 3820 4640 1695.5 4043

-0.13 0.54 0.26 -1.23 2.88 1.74

Jeera

18355

0.19

4082 3537 6918

-0.54 0.68 -0.75

Mustardseed Soy Bean Turmeric

CORINDER BUY DHANIYA ABOVE 4730 TGT 4760 4830 SL BELOW 4660 SELL DHANIYA BELOW 4650 TGT 4620 4550 SL ABOVE 4730

USDA forecasts that China's soybean imports will increase to 100.5 MMT in MY18/19 from the estimated 97 MMT in MY17/18. This forecast, is 2.5 MMT lower than USDA's June forecast. Due to the combination of the moderate increase in domestic soybean production, together with the slowdown in growth of soybean meal use, a net growth of 3.5 MMT of soybean imports in MY18/19 is expected to meet the Chinese demand growth for protein meals. U.S. soybean exports to China continue to face strong competition from soybean exports from South America. Excessive soybean stocks and a fall in the soybean price in Brazil attributed to the 14.2 MMT of Brazilian soybean exports to China in the first half of MY17/18. This is significantly higher than the 5.2 MMT during the same period in MY16/17. Despite China's net growth of over 2 MMT of soybean imports in the first half of MY17/18, total soybean imports from the United States fell to 24.4 MMT in this period, down from the 31.6 MMT in the previous year. Chinese importers note that Brazilian soybeans have a one percent higher protein content than U.S. soybeans. Importers were previously willing to pay a slightly higher price for soybeans with a higher protein content, but with the drop in the price of Brazilian soybeans, exports are now surging As per official data, Ukraine supplied some 1 MMT of wheat to foreign markets in May 2017/18. This was down 10% from April (1.1 MMT) but up 2% from May 2016/17 (986.8 KMT). In July-May 2017/18, wheat exports totaled 16.3 MMT, or 3% less than in the same period in MY 2016/17. Ukrainian wheat shipments to the European Union and Indonesia grew substantially in the current season. In the period under review, exports to Indonesia increased to 2.1 MMT that was 31% more than in the whole of MY 2016/17.

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Special Report 12-July-2018

RBI Reference Rate Currency

Rate Currency

Rate

Rupee- $

68.9300 Yen

62.0500

Euro

80.8525 GBP

91.3700

USD/INR BUY USDINR ABOVE 69.10 TGT 69.40/69.70 SL BELOW 68.80 SELL USDINR BELOW 68.80 TGT 68.50/68.20 SL ABOVE 69.10

Staging a mild recovery from a record closing low, the rupee edged up by 8 paise to end at 68.87 against the US currency, largely tracking gains in key Asian units amid weak dollar tone overseas. The domestic bourses too enjoyed a healthy weekend run. The outcome of the latest FOMC meeting minutes and the release of better-than-expected US ISM nonmanufacturing PMI numbers did little to influence the home currency even as investors braced for a potential interest rate hikes near term. Though, the rupee briefly slipped below 69 levels in midmorning deals but managed to recoup losses on apparent intervention by the Reserve Bank, coupled with greenback selling by exporters. The Indian rupee hit a record closing low of 68.95 on Thursday following a panic demand for the US dollar coupled with savage capital flight worries.

GBP/INR BUY GBPINR ABOVE 91.70 TGT 92.00/92.30 SL BELOW 91.40 SELL GBPINR BELOW 91.20 TGT 91.00/90.70 SL ABOVE 91.50

Meanwhile, fears over a slowdown in the country's economy in the midst of surging international crude oil prices and widening current account deficits predominantly kept the forex sentiment highly nervous. Meanwhile, the latest FOMC June meeting minutes showed that policy makers remain wary over intensifying trade disputes but were still on track for gradual monetary policy tightening cycle. Worrying development on escalation of trade conflict between the world's two biggest economic powers with the US President's latest salvo were largely weighed on the currency and financial markets worldwide with investors on edge awaiting the next developments. The response among major currencies, however, was fairly limited. The Chinese government retaliated immediately against US President Donald Trump's USD 34 billion tariff package with a simultaneous set of counter measures and accused Washington of starting "the largest trade war in history".

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Special Report 12-July-2018

NEXT WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS TIME (ET)

REPORT

PERIOD

ACTUAL

FORECAST

PREVIOUS

--

54.6

0.0%

1.8%

MONDAY, JULY 2 9;45 am

Markit manufacturing PMI (final)

June 10 am

10 am

Construction spending

May

TUESDAY, JULY 3

TUESDAY, JULY 3

TUESDAY , JULY 3

TUESDAY, JULY 3

TUESDAY, JULY TUESDAY, 3 JULY 3

Varies 10 am

Factory orders

May

-0.1%

WEDNESD AY, JULY 4

WEDNESDAY, JULY 4

WEDNES WEDNESDAY, JULY DAY, 4 JULY 4

THURSDA Y, JULY 5

THURSDAY, JULY 5

THURSD AY, JULY THURSDAY, JULY 5 5

8:15 am

ADP employment

8:30 am 9:45 am

-0.8%

WEDNESDAY, WEDNESD JULY 4 AY, JULY 4

THURSDAY, JULY 5

THURSDA Y, JULY 5

June

--

178,000

Weekly jobless claims

6/23

224,000

227,000

Markit services PMI (final)

June

56.5

10 am 2 pm

FOMC minutes

Disclaimer

FRIDAY, JULY 6

FRIDAY, JULY 6

FRIDAY, JULY 6

FRIDAY, JULY 6

FRIDAY, JULY 6

FRIDAY, JULY 6

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