Special report-06-feb-2019-epic-research

Special Report

06-FEB-2019

Global markets at a glance

World Indices

US stocks rose on Tuesday as largely upbeat corporate results fueled investor optimism ahead of the highly awaited State of the Union address by President Donald Trump.The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 172.15 points, or 0.68 percent, to 25,411.52, the S&P 500 gained 12.83 points, or 0.47 percent, to 2,737.7 and the Nasdaq Composite added 54.55 points, or 0.74 percent, to 7,402.08.

Index

Value

% Change

DJI

25340

+0.07

S&P500

2737

+0.47

NASDAQ

7402

+0.74

FTSE100

7144

+2.04

20868 27990

-0.08 +0.21

Asian shares started cautiously on Wednesday as investors waited to see if US President Donald Trump drops any hints of progress on tariffs in his State of the Union speech.

Top Gainers

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was flat with China and several other markets in the region still closed for the Lunar New Year holiday. Japan’s Nikkei edged up 0.3 percent, while E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 barely budged.Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a positive opening for the broader index in India, a rise of 48 points or 0.44 percent. Nifty futures were trading around 11,008level on the Singaporean Exchange. President Donald Trump will ask Congress in his State of the Union address on Tuesday to pass legislation to boost the nation’s aging infrastructure, but will not explain how to pay for it, administration officials said.

Titan Company

PREVIOUS DAY ROUNDOFF Indian benchmark indices witnessed a volatile trading session on Monday witnessing broad-based selling pressure in early morning trade before managing to stage a recovery in the second half of the session.Nifty managed to end the session 18 points higher, managing to close above the 10,900 mark led by a strong rally in Reliance Industries which ended the day 3.12% higher at 1,289.

Bank Nifty, too, witnessed a sharp pullback led by the likes of Kotak Mahindra Bank and Axis Bank ending the day 100 points higher at 27,186.However, the focus today was on ADAG group stocks which saw a heavy sell-off after RCOM considered filing for bankruptcy. RCOM and RPOWER ended the day ~34% and ~35% lower, respectively.

Index stats The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial in dices performed as follow; Commodities[-18.30pts], Consumption[+25.55pts],PSE[ -36.55pts],CPSE[3 2 .5 pts],Ene rgy [1 6 .4 pts],FM CG[ -2 49 .05 pts],Auto [+72.75pts],Pharma[-11.30Pts],IT[-16.10pts],Metal[26.15pts],Realty[-5.15pts], Fin Serv sector[+26.9pts].

NIKKEI HANG SENG Company

CMP

Change

% Chg

365.35

17.6

5.06

1,066.70

40.95

3.99

795.95

25.05

3.25

Dr Reddys Labs

2,821.45

86.25

3.15

Hero Motocorp

2,854.55

74.4

2.68

CMP

Change

% Chg

216.4 175.8 464.7 142.95 288.9

-5.7 -4.45 -11.35 -3.3 -6.15

-2.57 -2.47 -2.38 -2.26 -2.08

Zee Entertain UPL

Top Losers Company

Coal India Tata Motors Tata Steel ONGC Bharti Infratel

Stocks at 52 Week’s HIGH Symbol

Prev. Close

Change

%Chg

AARTIIND

1,807.85

-44.3

-2.57

AXISBANK

731.6

9.5

1.32

AXISGOLD

2,930.00

1.35

0.05

144

-1.25

-0.89

1,637.00

4.6

0.29

Prev. Close

Change

%Chg

21STCENMGM

20.6

-0.4

-1.9

AARVEEDEN

21.2

-0.45

-2.02

56.25 1.75 1.75

-6.75 -0.05 -0.05

-10.59 -2.78 -2.78

CGCL DIVISLAB

Stocks at 52 Week’s LOW Symbol

ABAN ABGSHIP ADHUNIK

Indian Indices Company

CMP

Change

% Chg

NIFTY

10934

+22.10

+0.20

SENSEX

36616

+34.07

+0.09

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Special Report

06-FEB-2019

RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE]

STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH]

1. Titan [FUTURE ] TITAN -In Titan on daily chart as well as weekly we have seen that Buying in this stock by traders as well as investors in last week .Reason behind that quarterly result awaited in this week & also from technical aspect stock now moving towards to break its previous highs.Our recommendation is to Buy 1030 stock target will be 1040/1050 SL below 1010

REPCOHOME Stock has given the breakout of the neckline of the double bottom pattern but can not sustain at upper level .we have seen the weakness on chart We recommend sell below 390 for the target of 385/380 with the stop loss of 410

2. MCDOWNLL –N [FUTURE] MCDOWELL-N – Daily chart of MCDOWELL-N looking week .We have seen the trendline breakdown & also stock MACRO NEWS does not sustain at upper level . Our recommendation is to sell the stock future from 545 Target will be 540 SL 555. RSI & MACD also showing that downtrend continue in this  Oil prices edged higher for the first time in three sessions on Wednesday, although concerns over the stock . outlook for the global economy capped gains. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $53.76 per barrel at 2338 GMT, up 10 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their last settlement. They closed down 1.7 percent on Tuesday. 

India is among the several countries that stand to benefit from the ongoing trade tensions between the world's top two economies - the US and China, the UN has said in its latest report.The US and China are locked in a trade war since President Donald Trump imposed heavy tariffs on imported steel and aluminium items in March last year, a move that sparked fears of a global trade war.



Capital markets regulator Sebi has asked exchanges to step up their surveillance of intra-day trading in the wake of significant volatility in a few stocks, sources said. The stocks under the scanner include those of a troubled airline, a media conglomerate facing liquidity crunch, a financer insider trading and other violations.

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Special Report

06-FEB-2019

STOCKS IN NEWS

MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION Symbol

Optio Strike n Price Type

LTP

Traded Volume (Contracts)

Open Interest

BANKNIFTY

CE

27,500

58

6,98,531

9,77,860

BANKNIFTY

CE

27,400

90

5,54,306

5,70,900 crore versus Rs 1,001.91 crore YoY.

BANKNIFTY

CE

27,300

129

4,90,613

RELIANCE

CE

1,300

31.5

8,011

RELIANCE

CE

1,320

23.6

6,842

RELIANCE

CE

1,340

17.3

6,646

RELIANCE

CE

1,360

12.2

PNB

CE

80

1.6

MARUTIACTIVE PUT CE OPTION 9,000 111.5 MOST Symbol

Optio Strike n Price Type

LTP

BANKNIFTY

PE

27,000

54.4

BANKNIFTY

PE

27,100

80.2

BANKNIFTY

PE

27,200 114.75

RELIANCE

PE

1,260

RELIANCE

PE

RELIANCE

Balrampur Chini Mills Q3: Profit jumps to Rs 120.32 crore versus Rs 61.42 crore; revenue falls to Rs 940.91

4,22,940 Novartis India Q3: Profit dips to Rs 12.87 crore versus Rs 14,31,000 18.74 crore; revenue falls to Rs 135.62 crore versus Rs 156.1 crore YoY. 6,34,000

6,19,000 NIFTY FUTURE Nifty struggling from many weeks to 5,484 4,96,500 breach the resistense level of 11000.Closing of nifty in this week below 200 EMA & 100 EMA & RSI also 5,201 1,08,01,000 showing downwards movement.In last 2 days we have seen that Budget trigger the market from bottom level or 5,823 2,83,500 support level around 10550 .But still our concern that Traded Open market can not sustain at upper level.Our Volume Interest Recommendation is to sell in the range 10900-10850 (Contracts) Target 10750/10600 SL 11100 . Finace Budget looks good 5,52,862 8,77,540 in favore of Farmer & Common people, specially for salary classed people.

4,03,940 3,84,980 3,73,028

4,95,180

23.5

5,039

5,44,000

1,280

31.5

4,658

3,80,500

PE

1,240

17.1

3,982

6,50,500

RELIANCE

PE

1,200

9.2

3,181

10,37,500

RELIANCE

PE

1,220

12.8

3,164

4,23,000

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS BUY No. of Contracts

SELL Amount in Crores

OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY

No. of Amount in No. of Contracts Crores Contracts

Amount in Crores

NET AMOUNT

INDEX FUTURES

29776

2093.29

32494

2278.06

292727

23312.00

-184.7739

INDEX OPTIONS

1370593

81108.05

1353960

79921.39

762173

57300.85

1186.6692

STOCK FUTURES

232098

12444.19

232354

12333.68

1453013

86541.49

110.515

STOCK OPTIONS

127828

7293.48

126171

7160.10

91716

5466.56

133.381 1245.7913

INDICES

R2

R1

PIVOT

S1

S2

NIFTY

10995

10965

10925

10895

10855

BANKNIFTY

27452

27362

27257

27167

27062

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Special Report

06-FEB-2019

RECOMMENDATIONS GOLD TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GOLD ABOVE 33500 TGT 33550/33600 SL BELOW 33400 SELL GOLD BELOW 33300 TGT 33250/33200 SL ABOVE 33500

SILVER TRADING STRATEGY: BUY SILVER ABOVE 40700 TGT 40750/40800 SL BELOW 40550 SELL SILVER BELOW 40400 TGT 40300/40200 SL ABOVE 40600

COMMODITY ROUNDUP Oil hit a two-month high close to $64 a barrel on Monday as OPEC-led supply cuts and U.S. sanctions against Venezuela's petroleum industry offset forecasts of weaker demand and an economic slowdown.The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies began a new round of supply cuts in January. These curbs, led by Saudi Arabia, have been compounded by involuntary losses that the Venezuelan sanctions could deepen.Brent crude LCOc1 , the global benchmark, hit $63.63 a barrel, the highest since Dec. 7, and was up 66 cents at $63.41 as of 1040 GMT.U.S. crude CLc1 hit a 2019 high of $55.75 and was later up 33 cents at $55.59."You have the sanctions on Venezuela, on top of the reduced supply from Saudi Arabia," said Olivier Jakob, oil analyst at Petromatrix. "There's no sign of overhang in the crude oil markets."OPEC supply fell in January by the largest amount in two years, a Reuters survey last week found. That offset limited compliance with the output-cutting deal so far by non-OPEC Russia. OPEC/O U.S. sanctions on Venezuela will limit oil transactions between Venezuela and other countries and are similar to those imposed on Iran last year, some analysts said after examining details announced by the government. the lack of excess supply, Jakob cited a rapidly clearing West African crude market CRU/WAF and the structure of Brent crude futures, in which the first-month contract is trading near the price of the second month LCOc1-LCOc2 .

The U.S.-China trade talks had a "good vibe" with much work remaining, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said on Friday, fanning hopes of an end to the longdrawn trade tiff between the world's two largest economies. the dollar was near a one-week high against the yen on the back of robust U.S. jobs data. USD/"Upbeat nonfarm payroll suggests the U.S. economy is riding a strong momentum, dampening demand for safe-haven assets like gold," Yang said, adding that this failed to change the market's view of the Federal Reserve's dovish stance with regard to its monetary tightening policy.Despite signs of a robust economy, the Fed is widely expected to keep rates steady this year, thanks to heightened worries over global growth, especially in China and Europe."Investors are now focused on trade talks and what emerges out of those," said ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes. "Any follow up data that does indicate continued positive economic growth will potentially indicate to people how the Fed will move in the shorter term."

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Special Report

06-FEB-2019

RECOMMENDATIONS GUARGUM5 TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GUARGUM FEB ABOVE 8450 TARGET 8465/8480/8510 SL 8390 SELL GUARGUM FEB BELOW 8400 TARGET 8385/8360/8340 SL 8460

NCDEX INDICES Index

Value

% Change

Barley

1580

0.39

Castor Seed

5096

0.39

Chana Coriander Cotton Seed Oilcake Guar Seed 10 MT

4229 6609 2049 4336

-1.18 -0.05 0.59 -0.09

15910

-0.38

3952 3826 6398

1.24 0.86 0.13

Jeera Mustardseed Soy Bean Turmeric

DHANIYA TRADING STRATEGY: BUY DHANIYA APR ABOVE 6570 TARGET 6595/6620/6640 SL 6510 SELL DHANIYA APR BELOW 6500 TARGET 6485/6460/6440 SL 6560

India's sugar production rose 8% to 185 lakh tonnes in the first four months of this marketing year ending September, industry body ISMA said.The production, is however, estimated to decline to 307 lakh tonnes in 2018-19 marketing year (October-September) from record 325 lakh tonnes in the previous year, Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said in a statement.“It is estimated that cane price arrears across the country have reached about Rs 20,000 crore at the end of January, 2019. Considering the pace of crushing in the remaining three peak months of current 2018-19 season and if current average all India domestic exmill price remains at around Rs 29-30 per kilo, millers might not be able to clear the dues on time.“It is feared that it may further increase to very uncomfortable levels by the end of April 2019,” ISMA said.The association said that exmill sugar prices across the country are ruling in the range of Rs 29-30 per kg, which is about Rs 5-6 per kg below the cost of production of sugar.

Climate has not been benevolent to the Tea estates of Assam and West Bengal (WB) from the beginning of the current year, with cold and dry conditions prevailing in most of the Tea growing area. Unless it rains coming days, it will have an impact on first flush Teas that are produced between mid-February and March.However, planters are cheerful about the quality of Teas that will be produced from the beginning of the season, as the estates were closed in early-December following a Tea Board directive.

This gave them time to prune Tea bushes properly and therefore the new leaves will be of better quality than normal. The Government has announced Rs 6,000 per year cash support to small and marginal farmers that will cost the exchequer Rs 75,000 crore annually, in a bid to provide re lie f to the distresse d farm se cto r.

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Special Report

06-FEB-2019

RBI Reference Rate Currency

Rate Currency

Rate

Rupee- $

71.7475 Yen

65.35

Euro

82.0550 GBP

93.3950

USD/INR TRADING STRATEGY: USD/INR BUY USDINR FUTURE ABOVE 71.85 TARGET 71.95 72.05 SL 71.65 SELL USDINR FUTURE BELOW 71.7 TARGET 71.6 71.5 SL 71.9

GBP/INR TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GBPINR FUTURE ABOVE 93.5 TARGET 93.6 93.7 SL 93.3 SELL GBPINR FUTURE BELOW 93.4 TARGET 93.3 93.4 SL 93.6

The euro fell on Thursday ahead of a European Central Bank meeting in which policymakers may express caution about slowing economic growth.The ECB is expected to reaffirm its plan to raise interest rates by the end of the year but traders will focus on how explicitly, if at all, the central bank acknowledges the slow-downThe euro has lost around 1.6 percent of its value over the last two weeks as investors bet the ECB will keep monetary policy accommodative for an extended period.If recent weakerthan-expected economic activity in Germany and France leads ECB President Mario Draghi to point to a potentially longer lasting slowdown, that could hurt the euro."We see a risk of modest dovish bias from Draghi today given the long stream of the soft euro zone data and look for the euro to test $1.1310," said ING FX strategist Petr Krpata.At 0830 the euro was down 0.2 percent at $1.1355 EUR=EBS .Germany, France and Italy, the euro zone's biggest economies, barely grew in the fourth quarter and French business activity fell unexpectedly this month, a survey showed on Thursday. ECB holds its first meeting of the year at a time when concerns are also growing about global trade tensions and Brexit.Sterling traded marginally lower at $1.3043, hovering near highs last seen in mid-November in a sign traders expect Britain to avoid a chaotic exit from the European Union.Some analysts expect limited upside for sterling. Philip Wee, currency strategist at DBS says that most of the gains in the pound are due to the unwinding of short positions. He sees sterling capped in the range of $1.3170-1.3240 The U.S. dollar pushed higher against a basket of its rivals on Thursday but gains were held in check amid concerns over global growth, the U.S. government shutdown and the ongoing U.S.-China trade war."Trade tensions are the most dominant factor for investor sentiment right now and will drive market flows," said Nick Twidale, chief operating officer at Rakuten Securities.Twidale added that investor risk appetite will only improve once concerns over the partial U.S. government shutdown and trade tensions fade.

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Special Report

06-FEB-2019

Date

Commodity/ Currency Pairs

05/2/19

NCDEX DHANIYA

APR

BUY

6570

05/2/19

NCDEX DHANIYA

APR

Sell

05/2/19

NCDEX GUARGUM5

FEB

05/2/19

NCDEX GUARGUM5

05/2/19

Contract Strategy

Entry Level

Stop Loss

Remark

6595/6620/66 40

6510

NOT EXECUTED

6500

6485/6460/64 40

6560

NOT EXECUTED

BUY

8530

8545/8560/85 90

8470

TARGET

FEB

SELL

8540

8525/8510/84 80

8600

MCX GOLD

FEB

BUY

33500

33550/33600

33400

NOT EXECUTED

05/2/19

MCX GOLD

FEB

SELL

33300

33250/33200

33500

TARGET

05/2/19

MCX SILVER

MAR

BUY

40700

40750/40800

40500

NOT EXECUTED

05/2/19

MCX SILVER

MAR

SELL

40400

40300/40200

40600

TARGET HIT

Entry Level

Target

Stop Loss

Remark

Target

TARGET

Date

Scrip

CASH/ FUTURE/ Strategy OPTION

05/2/19

NIFTY

FUTURE

SELL

10900-10850

10750/10600

11000

NOT EXECUTED

05/2/19

TITAN

FUTURE

BUY

1030

1040/1050

1010

TARGET

05/2/19

MCDOWNLL-N

FUTURE

SELL

540

530

550

NOT EXECUTED

05/2/19

REPOHOME

CASH

SELL

390

385/380

410

NOT EXECUTED

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Special Report

06-FEB-2019

NEXT WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS TIME (ET)

REPORT

PERIOD ACTUAL

FORECAST

PREVIOUS

Dec.

--

0.22

THE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN COULD DELAY THE RELEASE OF SOME DATA THIS WEEK MONDAY, JAN. 28

8:30 am

Chicago Fed national activity index

TUESDAY, JAN. 29

8:30 am

Advance trade in goods*

Dec.

--

N/A

9 am

Case-Shiller house prices

Nov.

--

5.5%

10 am

Consumer confidence index

Jan.

124.0

128.1

10 am

Homeownership rate

--

64.4%

WEDNESDAY, JAN. 30

8:15 am

ADP employment

Jan.

--

271,000

8:30 am

Gross domestic product*

Q4

2.6%

3.4%

10 am

Pending home sales

Dec.

--

-0.7%

2 pm

FOMC announcement

2.25-2.5%

2.25-2.5%

2:30 pm

Jerome Powell press conference

THURSDAY, JAN. 31

8:30 am

Weekly jobless claims

1/1926

214,000

199,000

8:30 am

Employment cost index

Q4

0.8%

0.8%

8:30 am

Personal income*

Dec.

0.5%

0.2%

8:30 am

Consumer spending*

Dec.

0.3%

0.4%

8:30 am

Core inflation*

Dec.

0.2%

0.1%

9:45 am

Chicago PMI

Jan.

--

65.4

Jan.

177,000

312,000

FRIDAY, FEB. 1

8:30 am

Nonfarm payrolls

9:45 amam MarkitUnemployment manufacturing index 8:30 rate flash

Nov.

Jan.

--

55.7 3.9%

3.9%

9:45 amam MarkitAverage services hourly index flash 8:30 earnings

Nov.

Jan.

--

54.8 0.2%

0.4%

9:45 am

Markit manufacturing PMI

Jan.

--

54.9

10 am

ISM manufacturing index

Jan.

54.3%

54.1%

10 am

Construction spending*

Dec.

--

N/A

10 am

Consumer sentiment index

Jan.

90.8

90.7

Varies

Motor vehicle sales

Jan.

17.2 mln

17.5 mln

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