Special report-02-august-2018-epic-research

Special Report 02-Aug-2018

Global markets at a glance The S&P 500 and Dow slipped on Wednesday as gains in Apple shares were offset by a drop in energy and industrial companies, while the U.S. Federal Reserve remained on course for an expected interest rate hike in September.Technology companies pushed the Nasdaq higher.The central bank left rates unchanged, and reiterated its view that the US economy is growing and the job market is strengthening, and inflation continues to hover near the Fed's 2 percent target since it last raised rates in June.While technology stocks pulled the Nasdaq into positive territory and gave a boost to the S&P and the Dow, trade worries intensified on news that the Trump administration is considering hiking tariffs to 25 percent from 10 percent on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports.China called the move "blackmail," and warned it would respond in kind.

Asian stocks were little changed on Thursday, with sentiment fragile after the latest escalation in Sino-US trade war while global bond markets were rattled by Washington's increased borrowing and Japan's new tolerance for higher yields.MSCI's broadest index of AsiaPacific shares outside Japan was off less than 0.1 percent in early trade while Japan's Nikkei was flat.On Wednesday, the US administration increased pressure on China for trade concessions by proposing a higher 25 percent tariff on USD 200 billion worth of Chinese imports. The trade issues will continue to weigh on markets. On the whole, Japanese corporate earnings have not been bad but many companies remain cautious as they need to see the impact of trade frictions.

Previous day Roundup After a flat open and rangebound trade for the most part of the day, the Nifty50 closed mildly lower Wednesday. This was after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.5 percent while keeping the policy stance neutral. The fall in the market is on account of mild profit booking after rising 400-points in the previous four consecutive sessions. The index formed 'Spinning Top' kind of pattern on the daily candlestick charts. Overall it was a volatile session for the market.

Index stats The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial in dices performed as follow; Commodities[8.25pts], Consumption[-12.95pts],PSE[36.30pts],CPSE [27.55pts],Energy[95.10pts],FMCG[167.85pts],Auto[ 83.65pts],Pharma[122.30pts],IT[91.55pts],Metal[ 15.10pts],Realty[0.50 pts], Fin Serv sector[-72.65pts].

World Indices Index

Value

% Change

25,415.19

0.43

S&P500

2,815.75

-0.04

NASDAQ FTSE100

7,261.75 7,748.76

0.54

22,706.90 28,576.41

0.68 -0.03

DJI

NIKKEI HANG SENG

0.62

Top Gainers Company

CMP

Change

% Chg

Coal India

270.65

9.55

3.66

Lupin

844.20

19.80

2.40

Bharti Infratel

293.25

6.60

2.30

Dr Reddys Labs

2,175.70

47.90

2.25

TCS

1,976.50

36.30

1.87

CMP

Change

% Chg

208.00 53.55 9,341.60 27,298.70

-5.40 -1.30 -178.95 -499.85

-2.53 -2.37 -1.88 -1.80

218.20

-4.00

-1.80

Top Losers Company

Hindalco Idea Cellular Maruti Suzuki Eicher Motors Vedanta

Stocks at 52 Week’s HIGH Symbol

Prev. Close

Change

%Chg

60.4

3

4.97

ASTRAZEN

1530.65

67.35

4.4

BAJAJFINSV

6977.3

-4.85

-0.07

BATAINDIA

908.9

35.1

3.86

BHARATFIN

1214.55

-3.55

-0.29

ADANIGREEN

Stocks at 52 Week’s LOW Symbol

ABGSHIP DIAPOWER GAMMNINFRA GAYAHWS GOENKA

Prev. Close

Change

%Chg

5.4 2 1.2 3.5 0.25

0.05 0.1 0 -0.15 0

0.93 5 0 -4.29 0

Indian Indices Company

CMP

Change

% Chg

NIFTY

11346.20

-10.30

-0.09

SENSEX

37521.62

-84.96

-0.23

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Special Report 02-Aug-2018

RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE] 1.SUNTV [FUTURE ] The particular script has rebounded from its support level of 763 and can break its crucial resistance level of 785 ,now it has closed above it with a good volume so today we can witness a good breakout since it is consolidating around its crucial resistance level around 796.40 here we advice you to make a long position around 800-805 for the target of 815830 with stoploss of 795

2.ONGC [FUTURE]

From the daily chart its clear that the particular script formed a Bullish Candle on daily scale and supports are gradually shifting higher. Now it has to continue to hold above 167 zones to extend its move towards 172-180 so we advice you to buy around the levels of 167-168 for the target of 172-176 with stoploss below 164.

STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH] KPIT [CASH] Due to the strength in the IT sector KPIT has made its fresh high after breaking its previous high of 305, now it is at trading at its 52 weeks high today we can expect some correction upto its previous high of 305 buy on correction would be good choice to make a long position,so we advice to buy around the levels of 305-306 for the target of 310-315 with a stoploss below 300.

MACRO NEW  Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a flat to positive opening for the broader index in India, a rise of 3.5 points or 0.03 percent. Nifty futures were trading around 11,362-level on the Singaporean Exchange.  The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday but characterized the economy as strong, keeping the central bank on track to increase borrowing costs in September.The Fed said economic growth has been rising strongly and the job market has continued to strengthen while inflation has remained near the central bank’s 2 percent target since its last policy meeting in June, when it raised rates.  The benchmark 10-year US Treasury note’s yield reached its highest in 2-1/2 months on Wednesday, breaking above 3 percent after the government said it intended to boost borrowing in the bond market in the coming quarter to fund spending and debt obligations.  Oil prices fell about 2 percent on Wednesday as a surprise increase in US crude stockpiles fed concerns about global oversupply, while investors worried that trade tensions could hit energy demand.Brent crude futures fell USD 1.82 to settle at USD 72.39 a barrel, a 2.5 percent loss. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell USD 1.10 to settle at USD 67.66 a barrel, a 1.6 percent loss.

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Special Report 02-Aug-2018

STOCKS IN NEWS

MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION Symbol

Optio Strike n Price Type

LTP

Traded Volume (Contracts)

Open Interest

BANKNIFTY

CE

27,600

51

1,45,352

4,70,240

NIFTY

CE

11,400 110.25

1,10,835

BANKNIFTY

CE

28,300

1.5

1,09,575

2,70,080

TATAMOTORS CE

270

8.1

13,109

37,87,500

TATAMOTORS CE

280

4.8

13,049

42,30,000

TATAMOTORS CE

300

1.65

9,875

40,98,000

TATAMOTORS CE

260 13.05

9,638

12,81,000

8,607

23,47,000

RELIANCE

CE

1,200

26.6

MARUTIACTIVE PUT CE OPTION 9,000 111.5 5,823 MOST Symbol

Optio Strike n Price Type

LTP

Kotak Mahindra Bank approved issue of PNCPS on a private placement basis aggregating to an issue size of up to Rs 500 crore



Pidilite Q1: Profit up 6% at Rs 240.8 crore; Revenue up 20% at Rs 1834.1 crore.

27,20,550 NIFTY FUTURE

2,83,500

Traded Volume (Contracts)

Open Interest

BANKNIFTY

PE

27,500

72

5,53,354

7,10,160

BANKNIFTY

PE

27,600 121.95

4,75,559

5,09,640

BANKNIFTY

PE

27,400

39

4,02,658

6,23,840

TATAMOTORS PE

250

4.75

12,128

44,95,500

TATAMOTORS PE

240

2.7

8,404

32,25,000

TATAMOTORS PE

260

8.1

6,377

17,98,500

PE

9,000

95

4,818

65,475

TATAMOTORS PE

230

1.7

4,764

15,70,500

MARUTI



The index formed 'Spinning Top' kind of pattern on the daily candlestick charts.Overall it was a volatile session for the market. The Nifty50 after flat opening at 11,359.80 traded higher and hit fresh intraday record high of 11,390.55, but the rally gradually fizzled out in late morning deals amid rangebound trade and hit an intraday low of 11,313.55 after the RBI monetary policy announcement. The index closed 10.30 points lower at 11,346.20.here we advice to sell nifty future on rise around 11400-390 with stop loss of 11450 for the target of 11350-11300.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS BUY

SELL

No. of Contracts

Amount in Crores

INDEX FUTURES

41366

3853.59

28435

2645.31

INDEX OPTIONS

860466

89152.00

862381

STOCK FUTURES

197027

13300.30

STOCK OPTIONS

104179

6989.77

OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY

No. of Amount in No. of Contracts Crores Contracts

Amount in Crores

NET AMOUNT

261608

22508.23

1208.2795

89258.36

615513

54353.45

-106.3634

195661

13258.68

1099735

81231.56

41.6211

104445

6968.43

90987

6830.51

21.3367 1164.8739

INDICES

R2

R1

PIVOT

S1

S2

NIFTY

11426.00

11386.00

11349.00

11309.00

11272.00

BANKNIFTY

37833.00

37677.00

37554.00

37398.00

37275.00

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Special Report 02-Aug-2018

RECOMMENDATIONS GOLD TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GOLD AUG FUT ABOVE 29750 TGT 29850 30000 SL BELOW 29650 SELL GOLD AUG FUT BELOW 29650 TGT 29550 29450 SL ABOVE 29750

SILVER TRADING STRATEGY: BUY SILVER SEP FUT ABOVE 38100 TGT 38300 38600 SL BELOW 37900 SELL SILVER SEP FUT BELOW 37800 TGT 37600 37300 SL ABOVE 38000

COMMODITY ROUNDUP Gold is widely advocated by financial analysts as one of the major safe harbors for worried investors as the world has to move from an international monetary system dominated by the US dollar to a multi-polar currency system.Gold will remain a crucial component of diversified portfolios, as a hedge against potential corrections across asset classes. It is liquid and has neither credit nor default risk. The inescapable conclusion is that the only viable alternative asset for official reserves is physical gold, as it alone has the requisite liquidity, correlation characteristics, and trust. Central banks seeking true risk diversification or insurance, therefore, should increase their gold holdings.Gold is almost never a ‘buy’ when it is both loved by the gold “community” and the cyclical backdrop is positive. It is almost always a ‘buy’ when it is hated by the gold “community” and the cyclical backdrop is counter, bleak and/or not inflationary.Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed speculators significantly expanded net short positions — bets the price will fall — to 26,400 contracts in the week to July 17, not far off the late 2015 record high. Oil prices fell about 2 percent on Wednesday as a surprise increase in US crude stockpiles fed concerns about global oversupply, while investors worried that trade tensions could hit energy demand.

Brent crude futures fell USD 1.82 to settle at USD 72.39 a barrel, a 2.5 percent loss. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell USD 1.10 to settle at USD 67.66 a barrel, a 1.6 percent loss.

Oil prices rose for a second day on Wednesday after industry group data showed U.S. crude inventories fell more than expected last week, easing worries about oversupply that had dragged on markets in recent sessions.Brent crude LCOc1 was up 29 cents, or 0.4 percent, at $73.73 a barrel by 0035 GMT. The global benchmark settled 38 cents higher at $73.44 a barrel on Tuesday, after climbing as high as $74.U.S. West Texas Intermediate CLc1 rose 22 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $68.74, having settled the previous session up 63 cents, or nearly 1 percent.Reports that China will increase infrastructure spending also helped reduce concerns that U.S.-China trade tensions will dent the country's demand for oil. crude and fuel stockpiles dropped more than expected last week, industry group the American Petroleum Institute said on Tuesday.Crude inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels in the week to July 20 to 407.6 million barrels, compared with analyst expectations for a decrease of 2.3 million barrels.Distillate fuels stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 1.3 million barrels, compared with expectations for a 207,000-barrel gain.

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Special Report 02-Aug-2018

RECOMMENDATIONS GUARGUM5 BUY GUARGUM OCT FUT ABOVE 9750 TGT 9830 9930 SL BELOW 9680 SELL GUARGUM OCT FUT BELOW 9650 TGT 9580 9480 SL ABOVE 9720

NCDEX INDICES Index

Value

% Change

Barley Castor Seed Chana Coriander Cotton Seed Oilcake Guar Seed 10 MT

1607 4615 4190 5081 1785 4444

-0.19 -0.88 -0.71 -0.47 -2.57 -0.19

20045

-0.74

4120 3411 7210

-1.1 0.56 -0.85

Jeera Mustardseed Soy Bean Turmeric

USDA forecasts that China's soybean imports will increase to 100.5 MMT in MY18/19 from the estimated 97 MMT in MY17/18. This forecast, is 2.5 MMT lower than USDA's June forecast. Due to the combination of the moderate increase in domestic soybean production, together with the slowdown in growth of soybean meal use, a net growth of 3.5 MMT of soybean imports in MY18/19 is expected to meet the Chinese demand growth for protein meals.

DHANIYA BUY DHANIYA AUG FUT ABOVE 5150 TGT 5200 5300 SL BELOW 5100 SELL DHANIYA AUG FUT BELOW 5050 TGT 5000 4900 SL ABOVE 5120

U.S. soybean exports to China continue to face strong competition from soybean exports from South America.

Excessive soybean stocks and a fall in the soybean price in Brazil attributed to the 14.2 MMT of Brazilian soybean exports to China in the first half of MY17/18. This is significantly higher than the 5.2 MMT during the same period in MY16/17.

Despite China's net growth of over 2 MMT of soybean imports in the first half of MY17/18, total soybean imports from the United States fell to 24.4 MMT in this period, down from the 31.6 MMT in the previous year. Chinese importers note that Brazilian soybeans have a one percent higher protein content than U.S. soybeans. Importers were previously willing to pay a slightly higher price for soybeans with a higher protein content, but with the drop in the price of Brazilian soybeans, exports are now surging As per official data, Ukraine supplied some 1 MMT of wheat to foreign markets in May 2017/18. This was down 10% from April (1.1 MMT) but up 2% from May 2016/17 (986.8 KMT). In July-May 2017/18, wheat exports totaled 16.3 MMT, or 3% less than in the same period in MY 2016/17.

Ukrainian wheat shipments to the European Union and Indonesia grew substantially in the current season. In the period under review, exports to Indonesia increased to 2.1 MMT that was 31% more than in the whole of MY 2016/17.

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Special Report 02-Aug-2018

RBI Reference Rate Currency

Rate Currency

Rate

Rupee- $

68.6500 Yen

61.5175

Euro

80.3975 GBP

90.3025

USD/INR BUY USDINR ABOVE 69.00 TGT 69.30/69.60 SL BELOW 68.70 SELL USDINR BELOW 68.00 TGT 67.70/67.40 SL ABOVE 68.30

GBP/INR BUY GBPINR ABOVE 90.50 TGT 90.80/91.10 SL BELOW 90.20 SELL GBPINR BELOW 90.20 TGT 89.90/89.60 SL ABOVE 90.60

The rupee retreated from early high levels to close down with a modest loss of 2 paise at 68.86 against the US currency on stray dollar demand from importers. The home currency initially reacted positively to the GST Council's decision to cut rates on several items and also tracking broad weakness in the dollar.

It touched a high of 68.65 in early trade before slipping back toward the tail-end trade.

Consistent unwinding by foreign investors on growing expectations of Fed rate hike kept home currency under pressure, a dealer said.

Overall, forex sentiment remained fragile in the face macro challenges coupled with tense trade relations between the US and major economies and expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates further this year. The Indian rupee had hit its life-time low of 69.13 a dollar last Friday.

Oil prices too inched up today after tensions worsened between Iran and the US. The Brent crude rising 66 cents to USD 73.73 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate gaining 27 cents to USD 68.53 per barrel. Foreign investors remained net investors in stock markets as they bought equities worth Rs 259 crore on net basis today.

Domestic bourses maintained their bullish momentum for the second-straight session with the flagship BSE Sensex ending at a historic closing high driven by optimistic corporate earnings as well as strong buying from investors.

The rupee resumed higher at 68.70 against weekend close of 68.84 at the Interbank Foreign Exchange (forex) market on increased selling of the American currency by exporters and banks. The local currency dropped to a low of 68.87 before settling at 68.86, showing a loss of 2 paise.

The Financial Benchmarks India private limited (FBIL), meanwhile, fixed the reference rate for the dollar at 68.7040 and for the euro at 80.5619. The bond market also witnessed fresh selling and the 10-year benchmark yield end at higher at 7.81 per cent. The bond market also witnessed fresh selling and the 10-year benchmark yield end at higher at 7.81 per cent. In the cross currency trade, the rupee continued to lose ground against the pound sterling to finish at 90.50 per pound from 89.80 and dropped against the euro to end at 80.68 as compared to 80.25. It also slumped further against the Japanse yen to close at 62.00 per 100 yens from 61.26 earlier.

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Special Report 02-Aug-2018

Date

Commodity/ Currency Pairs

31/07/18

NCDEX DHANIYA

AUG

BUY

31/07/18

NCDEX DHANIYA

AUG

31/07/18

NCDEX GUARGUM5

31/07/18

Target

Stop Loss

Remark

5180

5240 5340

5100

TGT HIT

SELL

4980

4900 4800

5060

NOT EXECUTED

OCT

BUY

9150

9370 9520

9170

TGT HIT

NCDEX GUARGUM5

OCT

SELL

9150

9250 9400

9050

NOT EXECUTED

31/07/18

MCX GOLD

AUG

BUY

29900

30000 30200

29800

NOT EXECUTED

31/07/18

MCX GOLD

AUG

SELL

29780

29680 29480

29880

OPEN

31/07/18

MCX SILVER

SEP

BUY

38500

38700 39000

31/07/18

MCX SILVER

SEP

SELL

38200

Date

Scrip

CASH/ FUTURE/ OPTION

Strategy

31/07/18

NIFTY

FUTURE

31/07/18

JSWSTEEL

31/07/18

31/07/18

PTC

PIDILITEIND

Contract Strategy

Entry Level

38300

NOT EXECUTED

38000 37700

38400

TGT HIT

Entry Level

Target

Stop Loss

Remark

BUY

11280-90

11400-11600

11200

NOT EXECUTED

FUTURE

BUY

330-331

335-340

328

OPEN

FUTURE

BUY

79-79.30

85-90

76

OPEN

CASH

SELL

1123-1120

1100-1080

1135

CLOSED AT 1123.45

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Special Report 02-Aug-2018

NEXT WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS TIME (ET)

REPORT

PERIOD

ACTUAL

FORECAST

PREVIOUS

MONDAY, AUG. 6 11 am

Survey of consumer expectations

July TUESDAY, AUG. 7

10 am

Job openings

June

6.6 mln

3 pm

Consumer credit

June

$25 bln

WEDNESDAY, AUG. 8 None scheduled THURSDAY, AUG. 9

THURSDAY, AUG. 9

THURSDA Y, AUG. 9

THURSDAY, AUG. 9

THURSDAY, AUG. 9

THURSDAY, AUG. 9

8:30 am 8:30 am

Producer price index

July

0.3%

10 am

Wholesale inventories

June

0.6%

FRIDAY, AUG. 10

FRIDAY, AUG. 10

FRIDAY, AUG. 10

8:30 am

Consumer price index

July

FRIDAY, AUG. 10

FRIDAY, AUG. 10

FRIDAY, AUG. 10 0.1%

8:30 am 2 pm

Federal budget

8:30 am

Gross domestic product

July Q2 Disclaimer

4.0%

2.0%

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