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2013/14

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CONTENTS

Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Tim McManan-Smith, editor, Energy Procurement

The Energy Bill . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8 Janet Wood, editor, New Power magazine

Energy Efficiency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14 Steven Fawkes, freelance journalist

Case Study: Arsenal FC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17 Energy Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18 Andrew Buckley, director general, The Major Energy Users’ Council

Viewpoint: Collaboration is Key . . . . . . . . . . . . .22 David Hall, head of sales, GDF SUEZ Energy UK

The Cost of Generation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24 Alex Trembath, Jessica Lovering, Max Luke, The Breakthrough Institute

Energy Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .27 Ian Vallely, freelance journalist

Viewpoint: Electricity Market Reform . . . . . . . .34 Wayne Mitchell, industrial and commercial sales and marketing director npower

Energy Intensive Industries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .37 Jeremy Nicholson, Energy Intensive Users Group

Procurement Best Practice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .42 David Noble, CEO, The Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply

Viewpoint: Risk Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45 Ben Dhesi, head of energy management, Pulse Commercial Utilities

Carbon Capture & Storage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .48 Judith Shapiro, policy and communications manager, The Carbon Capture & Storage Association

Case Study: Holland & Barrett . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .52 Editor Tim McManan-Smith Tel: 07818 574308 • tim.mcmanan-smith@i2ieventsgroup.com Sales Director Steve Swaine Tel: 07818 574300 • steve.swaine@i2ieventsgroup.com i2i Events Group The Studios, 2 Kingdom Street, London, W2 6JG Registered at Stationers Hall ISSN 0964 8321 Printed by Headley Brothers Disclaimer: Opinions expressed by individual contributors may not necessarily be those held by the publisher. Although every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of information published – this should be used at the readers discretion. The Maps within this publication are supplied courtesy of: The Petroleum Economist Limited (www.petroleum-economist.com)

Sustainable Procurement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .54 Andrew Jones – CEng FEI BEng MCIBSE, director, EAV Associates

Energy Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .58 Matt Smith, commodity analyst, Schneider Electric

Attitudes to Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .64 Deepika Swamy, energy communications consultant, CadenceFisher

Technical Information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .74 Maps detailing UK Electricity Supply, and Europe & CIS Gas Supplies – and an Energy Conversion Table

3


4

INTRODUCTION

Running an energy procurement department for has always been complex and the energy bill will add to that. The need to act swiftly has never been greater if we are to be prepared and to make sure we’re not on the road to nowhere

P

urchasing energy has never been an easy task with a highly

Demand response is certainly something that should be looked at

volatile wholesale market and various charges that do not

with its ability to yield large sums of money for load shedding or even

remain fixed. With electricity you have transmission and

turning on generation capacity at times when the grid is stretched.

distributions charges, VAT, the climate change levy, the carbon floor

The timing of when you use energy can lead to cost saving without

price will add to generator’s costs and be passed through to the

and change in the total load profile of energy. Triad management is

consumer, some are in the EU emissions trading scheme which

another essential area that can be managed in-house or more

puts a price on carbon use, some are in the CRC energy efficiency

commonly by a broker, consultant or demand response aggregator.

scheme which again taxes carbon use. Therenewables obligation

The other area is that is the core of this publication which is to

(soon to be contracts for difference which would also aid nuclear

buy more wisely; easier said than done. Drivers in the primary fuel

generation) adds to generator’s costs as do schemes such as Feed-in-

markets are often conflicting, for instance the glut of gas in the US

Tariffs and the Renewable Heat Incentive. Gas is certainly simpler

through the discovery and exploitation of it shale gas reserves

to understand, it is affected by all of the taxes on carbon and there

should depress the global market. The US is no longer an importer

are also incentives around to incentivise shale gas development but

of LNG which should make it cheaper to import into the UK.

it also seems to be more volatile than electricity. There are a

However, gas prices have gone up for the majority of businesses

number of ways around the problem of procuring energy, one is the

(and homeowners also). Why is this? We have has a couple of cold

traditional method of ignoring it, paying whatever your incumbent

winter in a row which has put pressures on reserves (such as they

supplier says the bill costs and most likely fixing the price so as to

are) and this has to be replenished in the summer months. Post-

have certainty. This can be the right thing to do but it would involve

Fukishima Japan has had to plug its nuclear power gap with LNG,

an enormous slice of luck to make it so.

North Sea gas is declining; supplying less than 40% of the UK’s

As with many of the taxes mentioned above carbon reduction is a key area of taxation with the Government wishing to not just hit its

demand from being an exporter 10 years ago. Maybe it’s none of those things directly but the fact remains that

legally binding targets but to lead the world in the push towards a low

prices have risen. Electricity within the UK is even more

carbon economy. It is this focus that has led many major energy users

complicated due to the diversity of supply and policy complexity.

to look again at reducing energy consumption. Energy efficiency

The charm of risk management has always been that it doesn’t look

has always been accepted as a low cost method of carbon reduction

at the drivers it merely responds to the numbers and a consumer’s

and if nothing else it lowers energy bills for the consumer and helps

appetite for risk. You are able to make intelligent decisions based

security of supply by reducing demand. (Stephen Fawkes, p14)

on the wholesale numbers rather than needing a true

In addition to a comprehensive audit of where energy is being used

understanding of all of the complex variables. Having said that,

by your organization and how it may be possible to reduce it whether

some knowledge of the fundamentals will enable a broader view of

that is behavioural change of employees, technology changes or better

where the market is headed in the long run and how to address a

maintenance, what else can be done to aid energy management?

company’s complete energy policy from legislation and taxation to …continued on page 6


INTRODUCTION

"Well, in our country," said Alice, still panting a little, "you'd generally get to somewhere else — if you run very fast for a long time, as we've been doing." "A slow sort of country!" said the Queen. "Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!"

5


6

INTRODUCTION

…continued from page 4 energy purchasing and demand side management.

As ever with UK energy policy is not so much what we are doing

There is a great deal of jockeying for position at the moment by

but what we are not doing. No carbon capture and storage has been

groups with vested interests in getting the government to design an

tested yet and there will only be one on test by 2020. No nuclear power

energy policy that would be favourable to them. When the article on

plants are being built. Renewable energy is coming along but there has

page 24 that compares nuclear power with renewable power was

been little implementation in the way of storage which would really

published on its own website (The Breakthrough Institute) in the US

get over any intermittency worries. Demand response if growing but

there was an outcry that the data had been cherry-picked. Indeed it

again at nowhere near the pace required to deal with intermittency

had, even though it showed that nuclear power was four times

created by renewable energy developments. Ofgem says that Margins

cheaper than renewable energy they looked at the most expensive

are projected to fall from 14% in 2012/13 to 4% in 2015/16. For a

nuclear power station ever built, the Olkiluoto plant in Finland

comparison Sizewell B produces 3% of the UK’s power and Drax 7%.

which is a new design and would come down in price if rolled out

So if one of those goes down (Drax is not actually one plant so this is

further, with the German solar model, the world’s most advanced

unlikely) then blackouts are imminent. I am sure that these will be

application of solar energy. The third and fourth versions of this

avoided but the only way out is through outbidding everybody else

reactor being built in China will be a third of the cost meaning that

globally for LNG, coal and using all of our interconnectors to the

it would work out 12 times cheaper than the German solar model.

maximum. Not a situation that we want to happen. So we need to

For a few hours one day last year it produced 50% of the country’s power needs yet overall for 2012 it was 5%. Yet without finding the figures we are just arguing passionately without the facts. Large scale renewable generation is certainly part of the solution and can definitely be used to great effect by individual companies onsite. If climate change is to be addressed while keeping the lights on we need a

As ever with UK energy policy is not so much what we are doing but what we are not doing. No carbon capture and storage has been tested yet and there will only be one on test by 2020. No nuclear power plants are being built.

broad mix of technologies that complement each other, the legislation

get going, although there may yet be time for one more review, amendment or clarification document. All of this is reminiscent of The Red Queen’s race in Lewis Carroll’s Through the Looking-Glass that involves the Red Queen and Alice constantly running but remaining in the same spot. “Well, in our country,” said Alice, still panting a little, “you’d generally get to somewhere else — if you run

very fast for a long time, as we’ve been doing.”

should be technology agnostic and there should be no picking winners

“A slow sort of country!” said the Queen. “Now, here, you see, it

by politicians. Nuclear power has its problems and that is chiefly costs,

takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you

even after Fukishima safety is no really an issue. The World Health

want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!”

Organization has issued a report that suggest that 1.2% of people

A book for children that could help UK Government policy? The

exposed to the highest dose will develop cancer over their lifetime,

cycle of constant talk for urgency then nothing much actually

compared to the whole population figure of 35% Japanese. WHO

happening has to be broken now.

estimated 51 of the 23,000 workers assigned to clear up the plant may get cancer, hardly the suicide mission we were led to believe it was. While any loss of human life is a bad thing what the renewable push and nuclear closure in Germany has meant is that there is now more fossil fuels on the grid and particularly coal due to its low cost at present. This is needed to plug the intermittency and provide baseload that the nuclear plants would have done. NASA climate scientist James Hansen has estimated that commercial nuclear power plants have saved a net total of 1.8 million lives by reducing fossil fuel pollution.

Tim McManan-Smith Editor Energy Procurement Tim.McManan-Smith @i2ieventsgroup.com


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8

THE ENERGY BILL

The Energy Bill has a lot of objectives to meet, but security of supply always comes out in the lead. That means prices will go up – but supplies should be secure in the long term. Janet Wood examined the

Bill’s implications for business customers

T

he new energy bill has a multitude of problems to

not use our own fossil resources domestically, as then we can be

solve. The government talks about the energy

sellers in the global market.

“trilemma”: balancing three imperatives of energy

The government decided many years ago that one way to

policy – affordability for domestic and business customers,

address these issues was to drive investment towards low-carbon

security of supply and decarbonisation – that are often in

power sources – a choice that also addressed the issue of trying

opposition. But that’s not the only issue to grapple with.

to limit climate change.

The UK has been “sweating” its energy industry, relying on

Can a single Energy Bill solve all these problems, many of

power plants that were built in the 1970s that are now reaching

them outside the control of the UK? That’s unlikely – and it is

the end of their lives, or in some cases must be closed to meet

certainly impossible that it will be able to achieve its goals

pollution control directives. That requires huge investment at a

without higher energy bills. The fact is that energy prices are

time when we are still trying to lift ourselves out of the lingering

rising worldwide, and in broad terms they will continue to do

financial crisis and recession – and new investors; as the utilities

so. The Energy Bill will not change that, because in the

who would otherwise have funded new plants have been hard-

trilemma, security of supply is always the most important of the

hit by the economic downturn.

three aims. Government does not claim that prices will not rise;

Our high use of fossil fuels is also beginning to come under pressure. This year around 60% of our power has come from coal or gas-fired stations, because we were able to take

its aim is to take the route that limits the increase while securing the right type of supplies. Although there has been debate on some of the Energy Bill’s

advantage of low priced coal from a world oversupply, and we

detail, in the main its measures have support from across the

were able to import gas as well as using the North Sea reserves

political spectrum because it will secure supplies – at a price –

that have been our mainstay for many years.

for the long term. That consensus has been reinforced by recent

But this year has been an anomaly in a story in which our own fossil resources are dwindling and we have to find replacements. Although that narrative has been disrupted by

news that our energy supplies will be very tight in the next couple of years and special measures will be needed. The policies behind the bill are unlikely to change, even if

the discovery of huge shale gas resources that could potentially

there is a change of government at the next election, and even

be extracted and used, the underlying issues remain the same –

the most dramatic political announcements are unlikely to alter

and for some in the industry taking fossil fuels from the

fundamentally the bill’s major new delivery mechanisms.

equation is a key part of meeting the “security” part of the

Businesses considering their own energy strategies should work

trilemma. There are limited fossil fuels available that can be

on that basis.

extracted at a reasonable price and we are competing in a global market and may pay high prices to secure them. It is also worth

The cost of carbon

remembering that we will be at an economic advantage if we do

The government has three major policy levers in the energy …continued on page 10


THE ENERGY BILL

9


10

THE ENERGY BILL

…continued from page 8 bill that are intended to support the three headline policy goals of affordability, security and decarbonisation. They are a subsidy

three years, is paid directly to the Treasury. It has also been suggested that the price support could be

regime for low-carbon generating plant known as Contracts for

short-lived. It’s true that as a Treasury measure the carbon price

Difference (CfD) to attract investment; plans for a capacity

support could be removed in the coming years as easily as it was

market that will ensure flexible plant (which in practice would

added (in a budget announcement), but that income stream is

be mainly gas-fired) is available whenever it is needed; and an

hard to give up. Shadow chancellor Ed Balls also gave strong

Emissions Performance Standard (EPS) that should make it

hints that he would retain it in a Green Alliance meeting in July.

impossible to build plants (generally coal-fired) that emit high

He said that “good environmental taxes incentivise the right

levels of carbon dioxide.

behaviour by properly externalising costs”, and added “green

The EPS is likely to have the least direct effect on customers.

taxes that don’t do anything to help the environment are

Before looking in detail at the other two mechanisms, it is worth

particularly perverse”. But he said he “wasn’t in the mood to give

considering some other measures that have been taken outside

up tax revenues”.

the energy bill that reinforce the government’s strategy and directly affect energy customers. An important plank of government – and international –

That raises the possibility that the income from the price floor may be allocated to improve energy efficiency and help the fuelpoor, as advocated by an alliance of consumer and green groups.

strategy has been to try to develop a price for carbon, on the

But for businesses, the message is that carbon price support is

assumption that - despite being a colourless, odourless gas and

probably here to stay.

one that appears in nature - it is just as much of a pollutant as other power station emissions like sulphur dioxide and the cost

Predictable or not? Contracts for Difference

of managing it must be attributed to the producer. That is the

One merit of the carbon floor price is that it is predictable.

theory behind the EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), which

There is also a carrot in its design. Although it is a tax at the

affects some large users directly and all customers indirectly,

moment, it is in fact a contract for difference (CfD). Businesses

because it means companies – including power utilities - incur

pay the top-up fee if the ETS price of carbon is below the price

costs when they emit carbon dioxide.

floor - but if the carbon price peaks above a price ceiling

If the ETS worked as intended it would naturally drive companies towards lower-carbon investments; but the price of carbon in the scheme is far too low to have this effect. The

government will pay the difference. That may be unlikely, but it provides certainty of a sort. A high carbon price is one way of trying to get power

British government has responded by setting a floor price for

suppliers to switch to low-carbon forms of generation, but at the

carbon dioxide in Great Britain. It wants the price of carbon to

moment it is not enough. There are a couple of reasons. First,

start at £16 per tonne emitted this year, to reach £30 per tonne

many low-carbon options are at a relatively early stage of

by 2020, and £70 per tonne in 2030. If the value of carbon in the

development so they are still expensive to build. Secondly, most

ETS is below that – and this year it is closer to the £4 mark –

of their cost arises right at the start, because fuel costs are low

emitters are charged by the government for the difference.

and the capital cost to build the plant is high. That requires an

The measure has been opposed by intensive energy users,

investor to take what could be an expensive gamble, and to take

who say they will be incentivised to move to countries where

that on the investor wants a guarantee that there will be

carbon – and therefore energy – costs are lower. The

sufficient return on investment.

government has some sympathy with that view and has offered compensation. The measure also puts government in the odd position of

Previously the UK government tried to manage this via the Renewables Obligation, which required energy suppliers to use a growing proportion of power from renewable sources or pay a

having a policy intended to support higher carbon prices that

fine. That worked well in its original aim of bringing the

gives it a direct financial benefit while the carbon price stays

cheapest renewables sources (generally landfill gas and wind)

low, because the top-up, which could be £4 billion in the next

online as fast as possible. But it failed in some aspects. It had to


THE ENERGY BILL

Draft strike price, £/MWh (2012 prices) 2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

Potential deployment in 2020, GW

95

95

95

95

95

1.7

Offshore wind

155

155

150

140

135

8 - 16

Onshore wind

100

100

100

95

95

09 - 12

Large solar PV

125

125

120

115

110

2.4 - 3.2

Biomass conversion

105

105

105

105

105

1.2- 4

Dedicated biomass with CHP

120

120

120

120

120

0.3

Energy from waste with CHP

90

90

90

90

90

0.5

Geothermal

125

120

120

120

120

0.1

Anaerobic digestion

145

145

145

140

135

0.2

Advanced conversion technologies

155

155

150

140

135

0.3

Technology Hydro

be refined to give bigger subsidies to less developed renewables,

guaranteed price will also mean investors accept a somewhat

and as it was designed so that the target proportion of

lower rate of return than they would for a risky project. The CfD

renewables always had unreachable “headroom” some

will not mean prices fall. Far from it, as a glance at the strike

generators made very large profits. What is more, it gave no

prices set out by Decc show (see table). But the government

support to nuclear, which the Department of Energy and

hopes they are at a level that will maintain stable prices for

Climate Change (Decc) sees as the largest low-carbon

investors and users.

generation option, and one that would be required to meet

Investors have been wary about the CfD mechanism, although

climate targets. Nuclear has the same high capital cost and slow

most would say that once it is in place they will work within it.

return problem as renewables, but multiplied many times – and

It has some potential issues for customers too. Price top-ups

it is unpopular and slow to build, meaning any developer would

and repayments will be managed by a government-backed

have to make a multi-year multi-billion pound commitment

counterparty but some important practical details of its

years before it sees any return.

methodology are unclear. For example, will the counterparty be

Decc’s solution is the feed-in tariff with Contract for

able to hold a “buffer fund” of cash from one year to the next to

Difference (CfD FIT) that forms the centrepiece of the bill. It is

smooth payment levels? If it does not, businesses paying “fixed

intended to provide a predictable return for investors in new

prices” for their energy may find that their supplier has to make

generation and at the same time give customers some

surcharges at the end of the financial year to balance the

predictability on prices. There is a “strike price” for each type of

counterparty’s books.

technology that Decc sees as a fair return. Generating

Some businesses have already seen a similar issue of

companies receive a top-up payment if the power price is below

surcharges arise because of a separate programme that provides

the strike price, and pay back the difference if the power price is

fixed payments for small renewable energy schemes including

above that level.

PV. The rate of those charges is fixed but their volume does not

The strike price is intended to be set at a level that will tempt investors to invest in new power projects. But in theory the

become clear until the end of the year. That means energy suppliers either make a high estimate and charge accordingly, or …continued on page 12

11


12

THE ENERGY BILL

…continued from page 11 take a cautious approach that may mean they have to make

mechanism will provide a route for more companies to

surcharges. It is not clear that the CfD counterparty

participate, either directly or via aggregators – companies Decc

arrangements will avoid this problem.

hopes will act as middlemen to give small companies a simple route to offer demand services.

Smoothing the peaks: the capacity mechanism Bringing a large amount of renewables into the system raises

We await further detail on the final form of the capacity mechanism but Decc is expecting to accept bids in an auction

some management issues. In a traditional system so-called

next year for capacity (or demand side options) to be delivered

baseload plants would run more or less continuously to meet the

in 2017.

minimum requirement. Other types of plant would be called on (“dispatched”) to run regularly for part of each day or for short periods during peak use. Renewables-based systems operate differently. There is usually

The next two years A final point that should be made about the Energy Bill is that it cannot bring new capacity online in the next two years. There

more generating capacity, so when there is wind and sun there is

is simply not enough time for even the most fast-build

abundant power available, but there are occasions when top-up

technologies to come on line in that time – but a programme of

or backup power is needed. The system must have some

plant closures will continue. The result is that our power

dispatchable power – usually gas turbines – available, but they

capacity margin will be very tight in the next two winters.

may be used very seldom, which makes them a problematic

Just how tight is impossible to predict, as it depends on some

investment. One way of managing this is to allow prices to rise

unknowables like how cold and windy the winters will be, and

very high in the periods of shortage, but to convince investors to

whether we will have top-ups available across interconnectors

take a gamble on plant that could be rarely used would require

with our neighbours. Nor is the situation unprecedented: the

what has been described as an “eyewateringly high” peak price

capacity margin was at a similar level in Great Britain in the

and that is unappetising for both customers (especially those

1990s, and although it is low in British terms, it is within regular

who take on some market risk) and, crucially, politicians.

limits used by some of our neighbouring countries.

Instead, Decc plans to introduce a so-called “capacity

Nevertheless, it is a threat and opportunity for energy users.

mechanism”. That would give companies with suitable power

The opportunity is to test the opportunity of providing demand

plants ongoing payments for making their plant “available”. As a

response, as National Grid is expanding its regular winter

result prices at times of shortage – and, Decc believes, at other

contracts to be sure of balancing the system. The most likely

times too – would be damped down.

threat is not blackouts – that possibility is remote – but price

There are debates about the exact form of the mechanism. But it raises interesting possibilities for customers because it will also

spikes as energy suppliers pay above the odds to secure power in a tight market.

allow demand side measures to be offered. In some ways these

T a

will mirror interruptible contracts already offered to large gas and electricity users, who stand ready to cut or replace their demand in exchange for a compensation payment. The capacity mechanism could expand this in several ways, although details are currently sketchy. It may be possible for customers to offer paid services such as: retiming their peak demand out of peak hours; making permanent, verifiable demand reductions; being able to cut demand at short notice; or providing necessary power (if they have backup generators, for example). Some large companies already provide such services, but Decc hopes the capacity

Janet Wood editor New Power magazine www.newpower.info

U f T

W G

T

C E w


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14

ENERGY EFFICIENCY

energy efficiency and obtain the uptake that is regularly referred to by government and in numerous reports to affect a lasting change on demand side

How do you expand

consumption

T

he large cost-effective potential for improving energy

- the issue now is how to implement that potential and thereby

efficiency has been widely recognized in the last few

change our energy future from one of ever increasing supply

years. McKinsey & Co. estimated that $170 billion a

capacity, and possible supply constraints, to one in which we

year invested in efficiency globally would reduce global energy

significantly reduce our energy use per unit of economic output

demand by the equivalent of 64 million barrels a day by 2020 and

and manage overall demand.

have a 17% IRR at an oil price of $50 per barrel. The

People often ask, ‘if efficiency is so

International Energy Agency’s ‘Efficient World’ scenario showed

good an investment why isn’t it

a boost to cumulative economic output by 2035 of $18 trillion –

happening?’. It is important

equivalent to the current size of the economies of the US,

to be clear that improving

Canada, Mexico and Chile combined, and that growth in global

energy efficiency is

energy demand would be halved relative to their ‘New Policies’

happening and efficiency

scenario, easing energy security concerns and reducing CO2

in all its guises is a rapidly

emissions. In the UK DECC’s Energy Efficiency

growing market.

Deployment Office has identified the potential to

Over the last

reduce electricity demand by 196 TWh a year by 2020, equivalent to 22 power stations. The potential to improve efficiency significantly is clear


ENERGY EFFICIENCY

thirty years improved efficiency has delivered more energy

their energy bills. For business it is largely seen as a ‘defensive’

services than all other energy sources combined and that has

cost-cutting issue rather than an ‘offensive’ revenue growth

happened with us paying relatively little attention to the subject.

opportunity and therefore destined always to have lower priority.

We now have the opportunity to accelerate the rate of

We need new business models that take energy efficiency out of

improvement by scaling up efficiency activities of all kinds in all

the ‘dull’ and into the ‘must have’ for consumers and we need

sectors and that means scaling up demand for efficiency, supply of

business leaders to see the strategic advantages that improved

efficiency goods and services, and the flow of finance into

efficiency can bring.

efficiency.

Building demand for greater efficiency has to be based on

Let’s examine two of these factors, increasing demand and

education about what is possible and what the benefits are,

increasing the flow of finance. If we get those right there

coupled with capacity building to improve skills in energy

will be market pull to build up the supply side which

efficiency, and this involves working at all levels from institutional

business will respond to.

shareholders, through CEOs and CFOs, through specialist energy

The first reality is that energy efficiency is not cool and of course it is invisible – very few consumers wake up and say ‘I am going to buy some energy efficiency today’ – however much they complain about

managers and on to the shop floor. Part of this …continued on page 16

15


16

ENERGY EFFICIENCY

‌continued from page 15 capacity building should be around the critical area of

projects, the need for long-term debt, and the lack of a secondary

measurement and verification of savings (M&V), part should be

market.

around awareness and behaviour change. Getting the attention

These issues are being addressed by the Investor Confidence

of senior decision makers means reframing the energy efficiency

Project (ICP) in the USA which is bringing together the energy

story through techniques such as comparing energy costs and

efficiency industry and major investors interested in the space to

potential savings to net profits rather than total costs, and

develop protocols for different types of buildings that standardize

identifying energy security risks at corporate and local levels. For

the approach to developing and implementing energy efficiency

elected officials the debate needs to be framed in terms of import

projects. We need a UK and European equivalent that can build

costs (nationally or locally) and the impact on local employment.

on and adapt the work of the ICP to European standards.

An important way of building demand for efficiency is the use

Ultimately we need a global market in energy efficiency

of standards, notably ISO 50001, Energy Management Systems.

investments in which standards and processes are globally

ISO 50001 sets out the process of energy management at all levels,

recognized. This will drive both the deal flow in the primary

from policy to implementation, and uses the Plan, Do, Check, Act

market and enable a secondary market.

system of continuous improvement. It embeds the improvement

No discussion of energy efficiency is complete without

of energy efficiency into organisations’ basic systems. The use of

mentioning the Jevons paradox, which can be summarized by the

ISO 50001 has grown rapidly since its introduction in 2011 but

phrase, saving energy leads to greater energy use not less. Nearly

can be further encouraged by government and large businesses

all studies of the so called rebound effect show that the effect is

adopting it as well as incorporating it into their supplier

less than one, i.e. for every unit of energy saved less than one unit

procurement criteria.

of additional demand is created. There are numerous examples of

A major way in which additional demand in the UK can be

businesses that have achieved both relative and absolute

created is to use Electricity Market Reform (EMR) to introduce a

reductions in energy input over many years. Furthermore, some

market mechanism for aggregating demand side projects and

recent work by the American Council for an Energy Efficient

ensuring that providers of such projects are rewarded in a way

Economy and others shows that energy efficiency has a much

that reflects the full value to the electricity system. Although

greater positive effect on the growth of an economy than was

there is promise that the demand side will be incorporated into

previously thought. In short Jevons is a red herring that should

the Capacity Mechanism the details are not yet clear and the devil

not distract us from working to accelerate the rate of

really will be in the detail. The government should not miss this

improvement in energy efficiency across the economy.

once in a generation opportunity to create a large scale energy

Energy efficiency represents one of the largest business

efficiency and demand response market. Elsewhere in the world,

opportunities on the planet. Exploiting that opportunity will

notably the USA, we are seeing innovative policies to decouple

produce huge benefits in terms of productivity, improved energy

utility profits from energy supplied beginning to have an impact

security, reduced emissions and economic growth. We now need

on reducing demand.

to fully recognize the facts and put improving efficiency at the

Many of the investments in energy efficiency will need to be

heart of energy policy and programmes at all levels.

funded by third party investors rather than the project hosts which means that the problems of energy efficiency financing need to be addressed. On the face of it the returns from efficiency projects should be attractive as they are low risk and can provide long-term income. The constraints on growth are; a lack of understanding and knowledge of the opportunity amongst the investor community, lack of confidence in the savings – even from investors interested in the space, lack of standardization of approach, high transaction costs, the small scale of individual

Steven Fawkes www.onlyelevenpercent.com


CASE STUDY

Changing to Value at Risk energy management puts Arsenal in

Premier League for energy savings

Electricity September 2011 to May 2012

- saving £98,899

June 2012 to May 2013

- saving £107,207

June 2013 to May 2014

- saving £92, 192

June 2014 to Sep 2014

- saving £46,468

Gas

Our Client Arsenal FC are one of the English Football Premiership’s biggest and most famous teams. Their home ground is the magnificently

September 2011 to May 2012

- saving £40,407

June 2012 to May 2013

- saving £116,249

June 2013 to May 2014

- saving £126,294

June 2014 to September 2014

- saving £22,186

modern state-of-the-art Emirates Stadium, and they also have their training centre at Colney in Hertfordshire.

“We have been extremely happy with the results of our energy purchasing so far, which is on course to deliver some significant

Objective Schneider Electric already had a relationship with Arsenal FC

savings compared to our previous fixed contract purchasing strategy. “This approach is completely different to our previous fixed price

through work done for energy management and carbon reduction

approach. The all important thing in today’s energy market is

at the Emirates Stadium, and water usage reduction at the club’s

ensuring a robust strategy which protects you from market volatility

training ground at St Albans. The new challenge was now to

but still allows you to take advantage of favourable markets.

optimise their energy purchasing.

“With this risk managed approach we have the reassurance of the budget we set at the beginning being the worst case scenario and

Our Solution

anything below are savings.”

The solution was to create a risk-managed flexible purchasing

John Beattie, Stadium & Facilities Director

plan. This was based on a Value at Risk (VaR) scheme devised around how much energy the client wants to procure at a fixed price, and how much they are prepared to “risk” or hedge against the changing market values, within agreed parameters. Benefits As a result of the adoption of the plan, Arsenal FC have, and will, save against their baseline predictions (see above right).

Schneider Electric Tel: 0800 279 5500 enquiries@ems.schneider-electric.com www.schneider-electric.com

17


18

ENERGY STRATEGY

more for less says Andrew Buckley, director general, Major Energy Users’ Council

Energy buyers should demand

T

he Energy Act breaks new ground for larger energy users

likely go and how much of future requirements would it be

as well as for the suppliers. Primarily a result of the work

prudent to reserve at pre-agreed prices using the forward curves.

carried out for DECC’s Electricity Market Reform (EMR),

Delivery charges at that time were largely kept within inflation

the Act sets the ground rules for future plant and infrastructure

through relatively simple regulation and add-ons for promoting

investment and points the way for how business customers need to

renewables technology also kept within reasonable limits.

respond as we move towards a low carbon future. Providing new capacity is clearly a priority. Ofgem flagged up

No longer the case, I hear you cry, with exceptional increases in delivery charges justified on the need to overhaul an aging

its concerns recently over running out of power plant reserve at

infrastructure and countless government initiatives for promoting

peak demand times and earlier this year we were within a few

low carbon fuels and energy efficiency almost always ending up

hours of running out of gas with our main storage in the Rough

being paid for by the generality of customers through higher bills.

North Sea field fully depleted. Perceived short term shortages

The EU ETS, CCL, CRC and ROCs have now been joined by

mean spikey prices and buyers now need to cope with increasing

the Carbon Floor Price Support and the now notorious Feed in

price volatility as well as the general price uncertainties

Tariff (FiT)s. Feed in Tariff pass through charges to larger

surrounding the global gas market and our less than liquid power

customer bills have already created waves amongst business

market.

customers despite their charges being largely confined to paying

Hard to believe that EMR is now over three years in the making as there are still many aspects needing to be tied down. Not the

domestic customers for their solar installations. FiT costs have been much higher than expected. They have not

least for customers will be how the demand-side measures

been applied consistently by different suppliers. And probably of

introduced late on during the Bill’s passage through the House of

greatest concern to larger users, they are not finally known for the

Commons pans out and how the new capacity market will finally

year to April until the following October requiring ex post bill

shapes up.

reconciliation and all that goes with it for customer budgets. Wholesale market price changes are now secondary to the

The Only Way Is Up

combination of these levies and delivery charges in ensuring

Prices for larger users appear firmly set on a long term upward

prices continue rising for larger customers for many years to

trend. Projections of 80% plus increases in real terms by the end

come. To break the cycle would requires a radical rethink by

of the decade are not uncommon although history tells us that the

government and this on current evidence is sometime away at

only certainty in any energy price forecast is that it will be wrong

best. The Energy Bill, for example, left the Commons with one of

What if, for example, a shale gas bonanza on the scale of US

the largest majorities the House has seen for many a year (396 for

experience, were to materialise?.

and only eight voting against). All parties are in support and

Indeed, not so long ago the energy buyer’s primary concern was to second guess where wholesale prices for gas and power would

Caroline Flint and her team are ready to continue on if Labour wins the 2015 election. …continued on page 20


ENERGY STRATEGY

19


20

ENERGY STRATEGY

‌continued from page 18 Turning the Tide on Rising Costs

in their consumption. Whilst plans have yet to be finalised, these

Against this background you can see that relying on the annual

are likely to be based on the Feed in Tariff mechanism and provide

tender for the lowest prices or admin charges for a flexible contract is about as robust as Canute’s efforts to resist the waves.

a rare opportunity for larger users to benefit. At the heart of the Electricity Market Reform process lies the

Likewise engaging a third party intermediary or energy consultant

challenge of creating a mechanism to encourage new generating

solely for this purpose is missing the point. Delivered prices

plant investment by isolating the investors from the vagaries of

regardless of the wholesale costs will continue to rise.

the market. Investment for a ÂŁ2 billion nuclear reactor, for

To be fair the more switched on consultants and livelier

example, needs a firm commitment in terms of the prices its

supplies have for some time seen this coming. Customers can now

output can command over the forty years it is designed to operate

tap into their half-hourly consumption data and see whether they

for. This process was further complicated by the Secretary

are using electricity unnecessarily or can switch part of their

of State at the time insisting forlornly that he

requirements away from high priced to lower priced periods

would only sanction new nuclear stations

during the day or week.

if no public subsidy was involved.

Schemes for keeping down transmission charges by reducing

The answer the civil servants

demand at system critical times have been around since the

came up with is the contract for

competitive power market started up in 1990 and these have been

difference (cfd) which incorporates an

joined more recently by others. Aggregators have sprung up to

agreed strike price for start-up generation

combine demand reductions from smaller players into

together with forward escalation for the

meaningful cost reductions to be shared amongst the participants.

continuing output over the life of the plant. When

Even within DECC, demand reduction for larger users is finally

the wholesale market price is lower than the

in vogue and this is to be much welcomed. Customers, it is thought,

strike price then the generator receives top up

will have the ability to bid in temporary demand reductions into the

income. This is paid for in terms of a

new power capacity market as a mirror image to

supplement to customer bills through

suppliers bidding in additional stand-by

the Feed in Tariff pass through

generation in order to keep the

charge mechanism.

lights on. DECC also plans to

In the same way, it

reward customers making

is thought,

permanent reductions

customers


ENERGY STRATEGY

could be rewarded for permanently reducing their demand by

come onto the system supported by the subsidies paid for through

paying them through the cfd mechanism clawing back the money

customer bills. The more switched on suppliers and facilities

required from remaining customers. The scheme, I should

management companies have started to offer guaranteed savings

caution, is at an embryonic stage with DECC planning to run a

programmes through energy saving contracts, following the long

pilot in 2014 before full introduction a

established practice in the United States where this type of

year later.

arrangement is responsible for the lion’s share of energy efficiency Clearly there

improvements. Several customers are also looking carefully at

are issues to

either investing in their own generation or linking with dedicated

address. What

plants in a bid to offset the ever-escalating costs of taking from

mechanism is

the public supply.

needed to ensure

Producing an energy plan should now be a must. At its simplest

that the savings

it should bring together the most recent year’s consumption and a

claimed for will prove

target of how much this can be reduced with expenditure for the

permanent? How do

same period and a forward estimate of how much delivered prices

you quantify these

are likely to rise. Buyers and plant engineers need to work

savings and how do you

together on this. There would be little point, for example, in

avoid rewarding a

achieving consumption reductions only to be penalised by falling

customer financially for

below the volume tolerance band agreed in the supply contract.

savings he would have

Suppliers can also play their part in this. They can provide the

made without any

quality consumption data you need and their trading desks can

incentive?

provide forward pricing information. Some may want to go

MEUC meetings have

further and offer energy reduction investment programmes paid

readily identified that many

for through sharing the savings. Larger customers can now

projects with simple paybacks

usefully put suppliers to the test not only in terms of the prices or

of under three years are likely

administrative charges they would propose but also how they

to go ahead. So the scheme to

could usefully support them in reducing their future

be beneficial needs to focus on those projects with longer pay

requirements. Long gone are the days of pile it high and sell it cheap in energy

backs.

contracts. The future lies in enlisting supplier support to help you

A study for DECC undertaken last

save energy in return for the supply contract. More support for

year pointed to potential technical savings of around 90TWh in the industrial, commercial and public sector

less consumption will be needed to take us to the low carbon future whilst keeping us in business.

markets out of total consumption of around 200TWh. Further work has refined this down to an estimate of around 30TWh which should cost-effectively be achieved by such a scheme. This figure is similar to the results of a recent MEUC survey in which 73% of respondents believed they could save in excess of 15% of their current consumption. A Plan for More for Less Many organisations now see consumption savings as essential to surviving future price increases as more low carbon generators

Andrew Buckley Director general The Major Energy Users’ Council andrew.buckley@meuc.co.uk www.meuc.co.uk

21


22

COLLABORATION IS KEY

With today’s energy markets characterised by increasing volatility and

advice on working with your supplier to optimise your energy management complexity, GDF SUEZ Energy UK offers

and purchasing

E

nergy procurement today is arguably more challenging

Energy UK, says: “We find that businesses we work with are at

than ever before. That’s because buying energy for any

various stages of the energy-management ‘evolutionary curve’.

size business is no longer simply a matter of assessing the

Some have done very little beyond a few basic energy-efficiency

available unit rates and choosing the best deal. Volatility in the energy markets means that flexible energy

measures, others have implemented robust energy-management techniques to control their energy usage, while others have

purchasing has become the norm for many businesses. Many now

optimised their energy management and installed on-site

rely on knowledgeable suppliers to provide them with products

generation plant to produce their own electricity.”

and services that help them buy at the right time, and therefore achieve best value. But that’s just the start. Today, almost half of a business’s energy bill is made up of

Support for effective energy management A supplier like GDF SUEZ Energy UK, which is part of the

third party charges associated with energy

wider GDF SUEZ group, has the resources and in-group expertise

transmission/distribution and “green charges”. That means efforts

to offer practical assistance and a range of products and services

to manage the costs associated with the consumption-related

to help businesses at every stage of their energy-management

portion of the bill need to be even more intensely focused. This

journey.

can involve a whole host of measures, from improving energy

A good starting point is to monitor and measure current

management and energy efficiency, to participating in income-

energy use, both through the site meter and, where possible,

generating load-management schemes or even generating your

through sub-meters. Gaining a detailed understanding of energy

own electricity.

usage is essential for any energy-management plan.

Not all options are right for every business. So it’s extremely beneficial to work with a supplier that can understand your

Optimising the benefits from energy management may mean

specific requirements and offer products and services to help you

altering your operational practices, such as moving energy-

optimise your energy purchasing and management.

intensive activities away from times of known peak energy costs. And with ongoing monitoring of your energy use in different

What do you want to achieve?

parts of your site, you and your employees will be able to see the

The starting point for any energy-management exercise is to

direct results of any changes made. Regular, continuous

identify your primary objective, as this will vary from business to

monitoring enables you to adapt and fine tune your energy-

business. For example, your aim may be to reduce your energy

management practices to achieve the greatest savings.

costs, kWh consumption or CO2 emissions. Once your key driver has been agreed, all associated initiatives can be focused on meeting this goal. Tony Galloni, Head of Marketing and Products at GDF SUEZ

Profit from on-site generation For businesses that have optimised their energy management, or are unable to make significant alterations to operational


COLLABORATION IS KEY

practices, generating electricity on site might be the next logical step. It will reduce your reliance on imported energy, it can also reduce your carbon footprint, and it can provide an extra income stream if you sell surplus energy or environmental certificates to the market. There are many options for on-site energy generation, from low-carbon combined heat and power (CHP) plants to wind turbines and solar photovoltaic systems. Nicola Pollard, Export Account Manager at GDF SUEZ Energy UK says: “We’re seeing electricity generation plants being installed by businesses in all sectors, from water companies to chemical

Balancing Reserve and Supplemental Balancing Reserve,

and horticultural businesses. Our specialists can help with the

following reports that spare power production capacity could fall

commercial aspects of generating your own electricity. That

to 2% in 2015. These products are viewed by some in the industry

means helping you to get the best deal for the energy you export.

as a possible test of the Capacity Mechanism in the Electricity

It also means managing flows of energy into your own site, which

Market Reforms, but what is clear is that the demand side has

could mean using more of your on-site generated electricity when

been identified as a key component in balancing the network in

market prices are high – helping you to smooth out volatility in

the UK.

the market.”

So, new opportunities for market participation, improved energy management and cost offsetting are constantly becoming

Load-management opportunities

available – and suppliers are constantly developing new products

Having generation plant on site opens up opportunities to

and services. Together, these give well-informed businesses the

participate in the commercial load-management services required

chance to smooth out volatility in energy prices and get the best

by National Grid to keep supply and demand in balance across its

possible deal from today’s ever-changing energy markets.

network. Participants in the Short-Term Operating Reserve (STOR) scheme, for example, are required to start up their standby generation (or reduce their electricity consumption) upon instruction from National Grid. Businesses are paid for participating in the scheme and receive additional payments every time they are called on to load manage. At the end of June, Ofgem and National Grid published a consultation document on two new services, Demand Side

David Hall Head of Sales GDF SUEZ Energy UK www.gdfsuez-energy.co.uk enquiries@gdfsuezuk.com

23


24

THE COST OF GENERATION

Energy finance: German solar four times higher than Finnish nuclear energy

G

quadruple the cost of one of the most expensive

estimated total cost of £10 billion, will generate over half as much

nuclear power plants in the world, according to a new

energy as the entire existing German solar program, which will

Breakthrough Institute analysis, raising serious questions about a

run to roughly £86 billion. The total cost of electricity produced

renewable energy strategy widely heralded as a global model. 

by German solar will be 21 pence per kilowatt-hour versus 4.6

ermany’s solar program will generate electricity at

The Finnish European pressurized reactor (EPR), with an

pence per kilowatt-hour for the Areva-Siemens nuclear plant in

The findings challenge the idea that solar photovoltaic is a disruptive, scalable, “shelf-ready” technology with a cost advantage over nuclear. Energy analysts frequently point to Finland’s advanced nuclear project at Olkiluoto, which is seven years behind schedule and billions of dollars over budget, and solar in Germany as indicative of future cost trends working against new nuclear technologies and in favour of solar.  Proponents of Germany’s Energiewende, which now involves jettisoning the country’s nuclear fleet by 2023, argue that solar and wind can make up the difference in lost capacity. A straightforward cost comparison between the two programs over the same 20-year period, however, reveals the costs of this proposition. 


THE COST OF GENERATION

Finland — a more than four-fold difference. Two such nuclear

to meet 10% of Finland’s energy demand, is being built on an

plants would generate slightly more than Germany’s solar panels,

island in the Baltic Sea.

at less than a fourth the total cost.

Initially expected to cost £2.8 billion and take four years to

The £10 billion estimate for Finland’s Olkiluoto 3 reactor is

complete, Unit 3 is now estimated to cost at least $7.3 billion and

based on fixed1 and variable costs (£0.013/kWh).2 The reactor

will not enter into service before 2016.4 Olkiluoto 3 is the first of

will generate about 225 TWh in a 20-year timeframe,3 more than

four advanced European Pressurized Reactors (EPRs), with others

half of what all of Germany’s solar panels installed between 2000

under construction in France and China. Finland’s project has

and 2011 will generate over their 20-year feed-in tariff contracts.

been criticized as an example of “all that can go wrong in

The construction of Unit 3 of Finland’s Olkiluoto nuclear

economic terms with new reactors.”5

power plant — approved by the Finnish government in 2005 and

German solar panels installed between 2000 and 2011 will

built by a consortium involving the French company Areva and

cumulatively supply about 400 terawatt-hours (TWh) to the grid

Germany’s Siemens — has come under fire for construction

by 2031. Between 2000 and 2031 Germany’s electricity ratepayers

delays and cost overruns. The 1,600-megawatt project, which aims

will pay about £86 billion for the solar PV generation from these …continued on page 26

25


26

THE COST OF GENERATION

…continued from page 25 30 year range),9 just a slightly higher output range than that of a single EPR. After a 30 to 40 year period some panels may continue to generate electricity but most will be taken offline or replaced, and owners will incur new capital and installation costs. Over its entire 60-year lifetime the EPR will provide electricity at a rate of 2.3-269 pence per kWh, compared to 10.9-14.2 pence per kWh for solar panels over their 30-40 year lifetimes.10

panels installed between 2000 and 2011 in the form of 20-year feed-in tariff contracts,6 at an average cost of 21 pence a kWh. Moreover, solar panels do not last as long as nuclear reactors and also give reduced output as they age. After three decades a single nuclear plant with the same output of Olkiluoto would generate about as much electricity as all of the German panels installed in the last decade.7 Over its entire 60-year lifetime, the

1. We adopted Areva’s most recent capital cost estimate, $11.1 billion. See http://m.foxbusiness.com/quickPage.html?page=19453&content=85055560 &pageNum=-1. 2. The US Nuclear Energy Institute estimates that variable production costs for the US nuclear fleet averaged 2.1 cents per kWh between 2003 and 2011. EIA Estimates that the variable costs of new advanced nuclear are about 1.2 cents/kWh. See http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/electricity_generation.cfm. 3. Assumes that the reactor will run at 80 percent of its total 1600-megawatt capacity over the 20-year period. In the United States the entire nuclear fleet has been running at >80 percent of its capacity since the late 1990s. 4. See http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/NNOlkiluoto_3_delayed_beyond_2014-1707124.html. 5. See http://www.psr.org/safe-energy/the-myth-of-the-european.html. 6. Frondel, M., Schmidt, C. M., and C. Vance, “Germany’s Solar Cell Promotion: An Unfolding Disaster,” (Ruhr Economic Papers, July 2012). See Figure 5: Annual Feed-in Tariffs for PV and Table 3: Net Costs of Promoting PV in Germany on pages 10 and 12, respectively. 7. The study that we draw on to estimate the cost of Germany’s nuclear program by Frondel et al. (2012) does not include a degradation rate in their analysis, which is why we’ve included one here but not in the other calculations. 8. For simplification we chose not to include a range of nuclear capacity factors in the previous calculations. 9. Actual solar PV panel lifetime is not well known because most panels have not been operating for more than a decade or two. But the studies that have focused on older panels have found a lifetime range of 25-30 years. For instance, see Artur Skoczek, Tony Sample, Ewan D. Dunlop, “The Results of Performance Measurements of Field-aged Crystalline Silicon Photovoltaic Modules,” Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications, 17:227-240 (2009). 10. Note that in this calculation we do not include unexpected capital costs that might be incurred over the lifetimes of the nuclear plant and solar panels.

EPR will generate between 589-757 TWh, depending on capacity factor.8 Assuming a 0.5% degradation rate for solar PV cells (a widely used figure), the 24.7 GW of solar PV capacity installed in Germany will generate 786 TWh over 40 years, or 604 TWh over 30 years (solar PV lifetimes are commonly considered in the 25-

Alex Trembath Jessica Lovering Max Luke The Breakthrough Institute


ENERGY PRICES

Energy costs look set to rocket over the coming years, placing further financial pressure on already hard-pressed businesses. But, asks Ian Vallely, how is the energy

price arrived at and what influences it?

E

nergy prices have risen inexorably over the last decade and there is no end in sight to their relentless upward march.

For the five years to 2012, industrial electricity prices

in the manufacturing sector rose, on average, by 35%

aimed at improving energy efficiency and cutting emissions in large, non-energy-intensive public and private sector organisations. These include supermarkets, hotels, water companies, banks, schools and government departments.

(21% in real terms, taking inflation into account),

But there are also other factors that influence

with an increase of 6% (5% in real terms) in the

energy prices including the wholesale cost of

last year, according to the latest quarterly energy prices published by the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC). In the same period, average industrial gas prices have increased by 56% (41% in real terms), and by 9% (8% in real terms) in the last year. There are no signs that these price hikes are

energy. The wholesale cost of gas and electricity can fluctuate wildly because these costs are heavily dependent on global prices. However, the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) estimates that around a half of a typical customer’s bill is made up of wholesale energy costs. Ofgem exists to

about to end. Indeed,

promote value for

all the indications are

money, security of

that energy prices will continue to escalate for the forseeable

supply and sustainability for energy consumers. But part of its

future. Ther question is: Why?

role is also to ensure that Britain’s energy wholesale and supply

Business energy costs depend on a variety of factors including the size

markets remain competitive. It explains: “Gas and electricity

of the organisation, its fuel mix,

companies purchase the energy

whether it sources electricity from

they expect you to use in advance

the grid or generates it on-site and

at the outset of your contract. This

whether it is covered by the CRC

ensures that your supply and your

Energy Efficiency Scheme or CRC

prices are guaranteed for the

(formerly known as the Carbon

duration of your contract and this

Reduction Commitment).

is a key difference between

The CRC is a mandatory scheme

commercial and domestic energy …continued on page 28

27


28

ENERGY PRICES

…continued from page 27 supplies. This is an advantage of business energy contracts

The DECC claims that UK businesses pay the lowest gas prices

because an increase in wholesale energy prices will not have an

in the ‘EU-15’. It adds: “For most businesses, energy costs are a

immediate effect on your bills.”

small proportion of total business costs – less than 3% on average

Other factors that have a more abrupt impact on energy prices

for the UK manufacturing sector. By contrast, employment costs

than the wholesale cost of gas and electricity include dramatic

represent around 18% of the total. This implies that energy and

changes in the UK’s energy and climate change policy, in part to

climate change policies are currently adding less than 1% to total

meet ambitious carbon reduction targets.

business costs in this sector.”

Our transition to a low carbon economy means that energy

Nonetheless, the Government’s own figures suggest that

companies need to create a balanced mix in their energy

businesses covered by the CRC and consuming 2,778 to 27,777

generation portfolios including the further development of

megawatt hours (MWh) of gas and between 2,000 and 19,999

onshore and offshore wind power, biomass and nuclear energy.

MWh of electricity currently face energy bills that are, on average,

This is good for UK interests – as well as reducing our carbon

21% higher as a result of its energy and climate change policies.

emissions, a greater reliance on non-fossil fuels such as nuclear

By 2020 the impact of these policies is estimated to be 22%. The

and renewables should also reduce our dependence on gas

reason for the seemingly low increase is due to the counteracting

imports.

effects of the policy price impacts (for a CRC user) which increase

Ofgem has estimated that Britain needs to invest up to £200 billion by 2020 to meet its environmental targets and secure energy supplies. The Government argues that green subsidies are effectively an insurance premium that we pay in order to protect the economy, shield the environment from global warming and bolster the UK’s energy security. Of course, green energy subsidies also have significant costs

energy bills, and the expected efficiency savings which reduce energy bills. Similar businesses that are not CRC participants face energy bills that are, on average, 15% higher as a result of policies although, by 2020, their impact is expected to be 26%. Large, energy-intensive businesses face varying impacts depending on a number of factors such as their mixture of gas and electricity use, their buying power and the extent to which

associated with them and these must inevitably be met by energy

they consume on-site generated electricity exempt from a number

consumers. Projecting the impact of energy and climate change

of policy costs. As a result, DECC policies are expected to add 1 to

policies on future energy prices and consumption levels is difficult

14% to energy bills for these users this year and between 6 and

because there are a number of factors that will affect what we pay

36% in 2020.

for energy in the future; many of which cannot be predicted or controlled. However, Whitehall insists that the impact of its energy and climate change policies is relatively small. The Department of

Other significant elements impacting on energy costs include environmental levies, taxes (such as VAT), distribution and transmission charges, and utility company profits. The Climate Change Levy (CCL) is a tax on the taxable supply

Energy & Climate Change (DECC) reported in March: “Recent

of specified energy products (otherwise known as taxable

increases in energy bills have mainly been driven by rising

commodities) for use by business consumers as fuels for lighting,

international prices for fossil fuels, particularly gas, not energy

heating and power.

and climate change policies. Energy bills are likely to continue on

The levy is designed to encourage businesses to reduce their

an upward trend over time, with or without policies, as a result of

energy consumption or use energy from renewable sources. It is

rising fossil fuel prices and network costs.”

included in business energy bills and is often listed as a separate

And, according to Energy and Climate Change Minister Greg Barker: “Global gas prices, not green policies, have been primarily

item. The CCL is charged at a specific rate per unit of energy. There

pushing up energy bills. That is why it is vital we crack on with

is a separate rate for each of the four categories of taxable

securing investment in a diverse energy mix that includes

commodity, as follows:

renewables and new nuclear, as well as gas.”

• Electricity. …continued on page 30


ENERGY PRICES

29


30

ENERGY PRICES

…continued from page 29 • Natural gas when supplied by a gas utility.

over recent years. For example, just recently, Scottish Power

• Liquid petroleum gas and other gaseous hydrocarbons in a

reported a doubling of its profits – the group made a pre-tax

liquid state. • Coal and lignite; coke, and semi-coke of coal or lignite; and petroleum coke.

profit for 2012 of £712 million, up from £350m in 2011. And energy giant Scottish and Southern Energy has seen annual profits at its household and business supply arm jump 27.5% to £410.1m.

CCL rates are currently 0.524p/kilowatt hours (kWh) for electricity and 0.182p/kWh for natural gas. Companies are exempt from paying the CCL if the energy they

Many people resent the generation of these sorts of revenues, seeing them as a symptom of profiteering by the big energy suppliers. However, the utility companies insist that the profits

use is generated by renewable sources such as hydropower.

are needed in order to ensure sufficient investment in the future

However, despite causing no direct carbon emissions, nuclear

of our energy infrastructure.

power is subject to CCL. VAT is charged on the CCL. VAT is also chargeable at the standard rate of 20% on supplies of gas and electricity for business use. However, if a business uses less than 33kWh of electricity or less than 145kWh of gas per day, a reduced rate of VAT – currently 5% – will apply. Gas and electricity supplied for domestic use or for nonbusiness use by a charity is also subject to VAT at the reduced rate of 5%. Another element influencing energy prices are Distribution Use of System (DUoS) charges and Transmission Use of System (TNUoS) charges. These cover the costs incurred by regional electricity distribution companies (which are licensed to distribute electricity in Britain) and the National Grid (Britain’s high-voltage electricity transmission network) in transporting electricity around the country and to businesses. These charges are typically estimated to account for around 20% of a typical electricity bill. DUoS charges comprise standing charges, day and night charges and the maximum supply requirements of the sites on the network. The DUoS charge covers the costs of installing, operating and maintaining the regional distribution network. TNUoS charges account for the fee paid by the energy supplier the National Grid to cover the expenses they incur for maintenance, upkeep, generators and distribution networks. These charges vary depending on where a business operates because each geographical zone has different demands on electricity consumption and generation. The final element contributing to energy costs, and therefore impacting on prices, is also the most contentious – energy company profits. Utility company income has risen dramatically

And investment is certainly required. Around a fifth of Britain’s ageing power plants are due to close over the coming decade. However, in total, the UK is likely to need between 15-25GW of


ENERGY PRICES

new generating capacity by 2020. That will

to replace aging infrastructure, support the drive to a low carbon

prompt the need for massive investment in our

economy and connect to new supplies of gas.”

energy infrastructure. Indeed, the Energy

A recent report from energy supplier RWE npower called ‘The

Bill currently before Parliament

Changing Cost of UK Energy’ focuses on domestic energy

introduces vital market reforms to

supplies. Nonetheless, it does offer clues to the thinking of energy

encourage this.

suppliers and their justification for the prices they charge.

According to Ofgem: “Network

Unsurprisingly, RWE npower claims that energy suppliers have

costs, which make up around 20%

a limited responsibility for the size of the energy bill. It says:

of your bill, will also have to

“Energy suppliers like npower have to cover their cost to operate.

increase. We estimate that

Combined, these costs make up 16% of a bill and represent the

around £30 billion will be

only part of the bill that energy suppliers are able to control.”

needed to be spent over the

It adds that a reasonable level of profit is required to enable

next 10 years on our

energy companies to invest in new infrastructure and generation

energy networks

capacity. RWE npower’s ceo, Paul Massara, concludes: “Ensuring a reliable supply of electricity from source to switch is a complex and costly process. Exploration, production and transportation put a commodity cost on energy before it even gets to Britain’s shores… “Everyone will have already come to their own conclusions about who is ultimately responsible for rising energy bills. More often than not, it is energy companies who are blamed. A survey recently carried out by npower showed that most people think we make profits of around 40%. In fact, our 2012 profit margin was around 5% – about the same as most supermarkets, and far lower than many other FTSE-listed companies.” He insisted that the cost of funding government policies for renewable energy, social support and energy efficiency was increasing faster than any other part of an energy bill. “These initiatives are all important, but consumers need to be aware that delivering them is causing energy costs to increase, and will continue to do so for some time into the future.”

Ian Vallely Freelance journalist

31


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BRITISH INDEPENDENT UTILITIES, THE UK’S LEADING ENERGY CONSULTANCY


34

ELECTRICITY MARKET REFORM

Wayne Mitchell, Industrial & Commercial Markets sales and marketing

market reform (EMR) and how businesses can mitigate its impact. director at npower, explains more about electricity

B

usinesses are concerned about how they are affected by the ongoing overhaul of UK energy legislation happening through Electricity Market Reform (EMR).

designed to ensure adequate, reliable power generation capacity is in place to meet demand. - EMISSION PERFORMANCE STANDARD (EPS) – Clearly

So, npower is working in partnership with businesses to give

defined set of emission levels for new power stations

them a voice in the shaping of legislation throughout the

designed to prevent investment in unabated carbon intensive

timeline of EMR.

power stations (i.e. coal without Carbon Capture and

Businesses are already facing a wide variety of energy

Storage).

legislation, from the CRC Energy Efficiency Scheme to Feed-in

- CARBON PRICE FLOOR (CPF) – A tax on carbon emissions

Tariffs. In addition to this, the Government has recognised that

from electricity generators in addition to the EU ETS carbon

the UK electricity market needs to change fundamentally over

cost. The CPF came into effect on 1 April 2013 and is designed

the coming years as demand increases and supply changes.

to provide an incentive to invest in low-carbon power

Electricity Market Reform aims to address the challenges facing

generation.

the energy market, reforming the market to attract the substantial investment needed in low carbon electricity, while

DECC is intending for EMR to be operational by mid-2014,

also achieving the Government’s objectives on security of supply

when CfDs will be available and the first capacity auction will be

and affordability.

held.

Understanding EMR

The voice of business

The Government proposes that EMR will help incentivise up to

npower's Industrial and Commercial division has been

£75billion of investment in new electricity infrastructure by 2020,

supporting businesses and giving them a voice in the debate

a considerable step towards the £330bn investment npower

around Electricity Market Reform (EMR) since it was first

estimated is needed in UK energy infrastructure by 2030 in our

proposed in 2010. Since then, npower has ensured its business

most recent Future Report.

customers’ views have been captured and heard by Government at each design stage of legislation. To date, npower has hosted three

EMR can be split into four main elements: - CONTRACTS FOR DIFFERENCE (CfD) – This guarantees a

customer and stakeholder roundtables on EMR, conducted its own ‘consultation’ to ensure time-poor businesses had their say

fixed total price for electricity generated by low carbon

during the process, and presented its findings to Government at

generators to guarantee a return and thereby encourage

every stage as part of RWE’s membership of all of DECC’s Expert

investment by reducing risk; the ‘strike price’ will be associated

Groups for EMR.

with generation type. - CAPACITY MECHANISM – A market-wide mechanism

npower fully supports the objectives of EMR proposals, and recognises the need for the UK to have modern, efficient energy


ELECTRICITY MARKET REFORM

June 2013 27th – published: • CfD: Draft strike prices for renewable generation • Capacity Market: Detailed design proposals • Final Investment Decision for Renewables: Update 2

Jul 2013

Aug 2013

Sep 2013

Dec 2013

17th - EMR draft Delivery Plan published – containing strike prices and the corresponding methodology, alongside the Capacity Mechanism reliability standard

Publication of the draft CfD Heads of Terms and key policy decisions

25th Consultations on  transition to CfD and EMR draft Delivery Plan close

Final Delivery Plan, CfD Head of Terms and strike prices published

Consultations open on: • CfD cost exemption • Transition from RO to CfD • EMR draft Delivery (strike prices and Capacity Mechanism reliability standard)

Update regarding CfD Supplier Obligation policy 30th Consultation on CfD cost exemption closed

Tbc - Draft secondary legislation published in September / October – to  be consulted on to end of the year

Royal Assent of Energy Bill

Aug 2014 First CfDs available

Mid to late 2014 Capacity Mechanism launched with the first auctions taking place for delivery in 2018/19

infrastructure with a diverse mix of technologies to ensure our

how EMR will work and are concerned about the impact on UK

economy can grow and compete globally. As part of our ongoing

competitiveness.

work to give businesses a voice in legislative decisions, we have

In particular, businesses are worried about cost certainty, and

captured substantial feedback, and it is clear from our

want more information from Government on how each part of

communication with businesses that many feel confused about

EMR will impact on business in terms of financial and …continued on page 36

35


36

ELECTRICITY MARKET REFORM

…continued from page 35 administrative cost. Businesses also want greater transparency on

why npower has worked in collaboration with businesses to

how EMR schemes will operate, with further details on how costs

develop a range of innovative energy-saving solutions that

will be set and markets regulated. Finally, we know that

respond to their needs.

businesses want a system with longevity so that the scheme is not

For example, tools such as npower’s encompass Bureau, can

affected by changes in Governments within short-term

help businesses of all sizes on the path towards better energy

parliamentary cycles.

management. By providing access to expert energy analysts who

As such, the recommendations we have submitted to

monitor energy consumption and identify areas of potential

Government on behalf of businesses include the need for cost and

wastage, encompass Bureau removes the need for time-

affordability to the consumer to be given paramount importance

constrained managers to monitor energy consumption

through the ongoing consultations on EMR.

themselves. Once identified, npower can then help businesses to

The publication of the draft EMR Delivery Plan in July provided an element of greater clarity, but it is essential that Government continues to provide more information on the

implement the energy saving actions needed to reduce their energy consumption – helping to save time and money. To secure the country’s power future, it is clear that EMR’s

specifics of the scheme and how it will impact on businesses – to

impact on the UK energy landscape will be considerable. But,

provide certainty, particularly for those making long-term

while we are at a critical stage of economic recovery, the impact

investment decisions.

on businesses is something that needs to be given prime consideration, which is why npower is continuing to work with

Solutions for success

businesses to give them the support they need in both

While EMR policy is still being finalised, there are tangible

understanding and managing EMR. To find out more how

steps businesses can take to mitigate the effects of the uncertainty

npower is giving businesses a voice on EMR get in touch at

EMR has brought them.

business@npower.com or visit www.npower.com/business.

Firstly, businesses can make sure their voice is heard and considered by Government, to shape the scheme into something that works for them. npower has launched the ‘EMR Explained’ campaign to support businesses with understanding EMR and how it will impact their organisation. As part of this campaign, we are conducting regular ‘EMR Pulse’ surveys to give businesses the opportunity to share their views in a quick and simple way. The ‘EMR Pulse’ survey also gives businesses the opportunity to participate in the Government’s ongoing consultations as appropriate. For instance, we fed into the consultation regarding exemptions from CfD costs. Businesses wishing to contribute to the current npower ‘EMR Pulse’ can have their say at www.npower.com/business or on npower’s stand at this year’s Energy Event. Also, while many details of EMR are still to be confirmed, a key practical means of ensuring your business is well prepared for its impact – in whatever form it takes – is good energy management. Measuring, monitoring and minimising energy use are the key steps that businesses can use to help take control of costs. As many shrewd business energy users know, the cheapest form of energy is the energy you don’t use, which is

Wayne Mitchell Industrial and Commercial sales and marketing director npower www.npower.com/business


ENERGY INTENSIVE INDUSTRIES

Tim McManan-Smith met with Jeremy Nicholson director of the Energy

Intensive User Group. What does the changing landscape for energy mean to large industrial users and does the Government understand the global

pressures facing UK industry?

A

lthough amendment to include a 2030 emissions target

forms including renewable energy but that we must have realism

in the Energy Bill was narrowly defeated the

within the timescale or what is the point in talking about it? His

Government’s advisors, the Committee on Climate

chief worry with renewable generation is the intermittency

Change says that without aiming at the sort of level of emissions

problems, something that industry cannot cope easily with and

reductions it will be impossible to meet our 2050 commitments.

although the grid is able to be balanced via demand reduction and

There is also the argument that the industry needs certainty

The Electricity Market Reform’s capacity mechanism none of this is

beyond 2020 with the timescales of new built power generation

cheap.

and also for large scale energy efficiency and renewable projects.

With regard to demand reduction Nicholson says that people

“The 2030 emissions target is very ambitious and with the role

have had load shifting for years, all large energy users do this so

out of renewable energy, nuclear power, carbon capture and storage

where is the extra ability to change load profiles coming from? He

at a rate and scale that hasn’t been done We are committing to

suggests that you could use refrigeration, air conditioning and so on

something that hasn’t been done anywhere else in the world”, says

but it is still nowhere near being able to mitigate a renewable energy

Nicholson. He continues that the maximum amount of carbon that

load of say 30% by 2020.

a power station can emit 450g/kWh from the emission performance

The worry is that the pressures put upon UK industry will force

standard in the Energy Bill. If a plant is consented to be built under

them to move away if we do not address their concerns. “We have

this standard, prior to any subsequent amendment, it will be allowed

locked ourselves in to absurd targets that have not been thought

to emit this until 2045. Yet to hit our 2030 targets according to the

through and this will mean that energy intensive industries will

Committee on Climate Change the average must be 50g/kWh. How

relocate. Most members [of the EIUG] are part of multinational

is such reduction going to be possible in such a short space of time

groups it is true they will not just shut up shop and leave; it is more

with power stations being built now that will be around then?

a question of whether they will carry one investing in the UK. It is

Looking at the technology issues Nicholson comments that,

like putting someone on an inadequate diet, you don’t die

“Nuclear power has been approved but there are problems over the

immediately. They are going to invest in where the returns are likely

cost. Carbon capture and storage is necessary to meet such targets

to be highest and if the input costs are significantly higher here than

but again it is something that hasn’t been done on a commercial

elsewhere it is unlikely to be within the UK.”

scale. The Committee on Climate Change recommends that all gas

The carbon floor price is a bone of contention for many

after 2020 is carbon capture and storage ready. Yet at the moment

businesses in the UK believing that it will render UK industry

no projects have been implemented and by 2020 we may just have

uncompetitive. “So you have a carbon floor price that only exists

one being tested by then. It is an absolutely reckless thing to

within the UK which will double next year to £9.55/tonne of CO2;

propose. It is one thing to encourage environmental responsibility

yet the EU ETS is still really low,” comments Nicholson, “this is an

but advice like that is practically useless.”

extra price over and above what anyone else is paying and yet to

Nicholson stresses that he is not against any of these generation

alleviate this unfair position and give energy intensive industries …continued on page 38

37


38

ENERGY INTENSIVE INDUSTRIES

…continued from page 37 help, as the chancellor has suggested (in a £250 million package), this has to go through state aid approval at the EU level. How can removing a barrier that the UK invented be state aid when no one else has the barrier in the first place?” I question whether you can act unilaterally when you are within a trading bloc? “You can,” smiled Nicholson, “but it makes no sense. It just means that the UK shoulders more of the burden. Every tonne saved here frees up a tonne to be used elsewhere within Europe, there is no extra benefit whatsoever.” Nicholson prefers using the EU ETS (emissions trading scheme) and making sure that it delivers as a vehicle for producing a legitimate carbon price. “If there was more post 2020 certainty on targets then the EU ETS would have a higher value. I can understand the reasons behind backloading [This measure was designed to address the current surplus of carbon allowances in the market. The impact of the surplus has been to push down the value of the carbon price and therefore undermine low-carbon investments]. The problem with this is that it shows that politicians are prepared to fiddle with the scheme if the price isn’t “right”. They want to determine the price and volume at the same time, which is nonsensical in a free market. Traders who make a lot of the liquidity in the market don’t like it. How do you take a position if politicians come along and change it?” The idea of trading energy efficiency permits is an interesting one and could have the potential to spark a implementation of energy savings measures that hasn’t currently been achieved en masse. “The negawatt market sounds good, however, it rewards energy inefficient companies,“ says Nicholson, “It should be possible for demand side measure to be incorporated within the capacity mechanism”. The Government is going to trial this method but it is uncertain exactly how this would work on a practical level at present. It brings up issue such as how was the energy saved, was it a permanent demand reduction through decline or through energy efficiency? “If subsidies were available it would provide an incentive to get over the hassle factor but where energy intensive industry is concerned they probably wouldn’t do a major refurbishment on purely energy efficiency grounds unless they were going to do it anyway. You wouldn’t shut down a blast furnace for a 5% gain in fuel efficiency.

reward. Nicholson agrees, “Many energy intensive industries have

Subsidies could move the maintenance schedule a little, it may be

already looked quite hard at energy efficiency because energy is

more likely to happen slightly earlier than it otherwise would have.”

such an important part of their process. They are rewarded by

Energy efficiency hasn’t traditional had subsidies because saving

lower prices or through demand response by being paid not to

energy and reducing your cost base has always been seen as its own

consume for a certain period. Both of these should become more


ENERGY INTENSIVE INDUSTRIES

intensively are international and energy prices are a big factor not only in where to site new plants but also in selling the good around the world. The difference in gas prices between US and the EU through its exploitation of shale gas reserves has meant that there has been a rise in US exports. This competitive advantage has enabled the US to re-industrialise even moving some plants back from China.” Nicholson believes that the electricity market reform (EMR) within the Energy Bill has good aims but is overly ambitious which makes it more difficult for it to succeed. He is also concerned that prices will be affected to the detriment of UK industry. “The electricity market reform is unduly complex and it is trying to do too much at once. We should try to remedy the EU ETS rather than introduce a floor price for carbon here in the UK. The only question is how much is the price going to go up? It is foolish to unilaterally impose cost that are £16/tCO2 this year and set to be £30 in 2020 and £70 by 2030. In the long term if the EU ETS price does not rise significantly industry you have to ask whether this is politically or economically sustainable for industry.” Nicholson list the factors that are a worry to those concerned about where energy prices may be heading, “The intentions of the EMR are laudable but it will be difficult to limit the increases in price, as well as a floor price on carbon there is the contracts for difference which may be better for the consumer than the current RO but this is not going to be phased out until 2017 and will go up every year until then. Small scale FITs are already costing £2/MW. Transmission and distribution costs are going up due to the upgrade in infrastructure necessary for smart grids and renewable energy generation. Balancing costs will also increase as the National Grid has to cope with more intermittency in the system. It is possible that fuel cost could go down but fuel is a global commodity and anything could happen such as the disaster in Fukishima.” It seems that fuel, strangely enough is becoming less of a factor for UK industry than legislation.

import for firm in the UK as generating margins go down over the next few years.” Nicholson believes that too much of UK energy policy is taken in isolation. “What the UK government is sometimes guilty of doing is not taking into account that many of the business that use energy

Jeremy Nicholson Energy Intensive Users Group Tel: +44 (0)20 7654 1536 Fax: +44 (0)20 7222 2782 Email: jnicholson@eef.org.uk Web: www.eiug.org.uk

39


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Schneider Electric | www.schneider-electric.com


42

PROCUREMENT BEST PRACTICE

the right purchasing strategy can be the difference between being a profitable or not. “If you don’t buy right, you have no business,” so says Alan Sugar. Getting

David Noble, chief executive of CIPS outlines procurement best practice

W

ith rising prices and declining fuel stocks, complex supply chains and an equally complicated world, the UK Government is taking a serious look at what the

energy sector will look like in years to come. This is something that good buyers have always had to do – looking to the future to ensure surety of supply and a competitive pricing structure. The Government’s decision in the coming decades will influence how buyers will work in the future. Good procurement and supply management practitioners can shape the structure of the organisation they work for, work towards the organisation’s strategic goals, whether public or private and the sector they work, encouraging fair treatment of suppliers, reduction in waste, good sustainable practices or innovative and creative solutions for their company. They can influence governments and economies, as well as being restricted by both. As there is increased need to source energy in the best way possible, there are best practice procurement principles that can help along the way.

practice also requires a clear understanding of who suppliers are, their issues, challenges and how they can support a business with

Matching strategies Aligning procurement strategy to business strategy makes sense,

more than just supplying those goods and services. Suppliers can be a good source of industry knowledge, of

and involving the whole organisation and the CEO is vital. Our

innovative solutions and ideas how to strengthen the organisation

recent survey of senior supply chain managers found that a third of

they supply. And when the chips are down and energy sources are

their CEOs were disengaged with their supply chain. The Time to

scarce, buyers will want to be THE customer of choice of their

Take Stock report in 2011 found that there was a lack of

suppliers when the competition heats up.

prioritisation placed on supply chain issues compared to Corporate Social Responsibility for example.

Minimising risk Risk is a big issue in the energy sector as history can point out when

Create positive relationships and keep them going

it comes to health and safety, so is major area of development and

Procurement and supply chain management may feel like it’s all

attention. But risk in itself is not necessarily a bad thing. Risk only

about costs, and getting goods and services on time, but best

becomes a threat when it is unexpected and out of control, which is


PROCUREMENT BEST PRACTICE

The future of energy With the Energy Bill the UK Government’s aims are laudable – an increase in investment in the sector and to develop ways of sustaining supply and prevent massive hikes as resources become scarcer and the Electricity Market reform plan plays a large part in how this can be realised. But though many energy buyers have waited with bated breath on what the Bill was likely to offer they now have mixed feelings about what the bill will actually deliver. The Government’s report states that as 20% of the current power stations are due to close in the next decade, the investment needed to plug this shortfall in power generation is likely to be around £110bn. That’s a huge sum. Add this to an alignment with the UK’s climate change goals, primarily ‘decarbonising’ the UK’s energy system and this is quite a financial and infrastructure challenge. As renewables such as wind and tidal wave are likely to require even more investment and offer  a long timescale before they’re where risk mitigation strategies are crucial. Supply chain initiatives

fully up and running, the move towards more nuclear energy is

such as outsourcing services, or lean and just-in-time approaches have

likely coupled with the usual dependence on gas which is not very

all exposed us to new risks, but with awareness, the four areas of risk

‘green’. Though the intention is focussed on surety of supply, the

management – risk recognition (identification of potential risk); risk

plans could make the UK’s energy sector more inefficient for these

analysis (probability of risk); risk assessment (likely impact) and risk

reasons.

mitigation (plans in place to reduce impact), it’s mostly covered.

The proposals also rely heavily on ‘the big six’ - British Gas, EDF Energy, E.ON, npower, Scottish Power and SSE Group. By placing

Having the right skills in place

all our eggs in one basket, this is likely to stifle competition in

The right expertise and experience makes all the difference, with

pricing but also in developing new and innovative ways of

a complete understanding of the full procurement and supply management process and having the competencies and skills in

producing energy for the country’s needs. And what about saving energy?  There is much that businesses

understanding tendering processes, creating and managing

can do to contribute to this objective, as well as saving on their own

contracts with suppliers, commodity pricing and understanding

costs of course. Switching off computer monitors overnight can save

quality and value not just cost cutting

£50 per year per machine. Encouraging remote working for staff …continued on page 44

43


44

PROCUREMENT BEST PRACTICE

…continued from page 43 will also save more costs as companies risk being additionally taxed for their energy consumption. And what does this mean for buyers? Of particular interest, the measure ‘contracts for difference’ ensures buyers receive the difference in cost from suppliers when prices fluctuate during the time of a contract. This should improve relationships in the buyer/supplier sphere and a sense of working together in a fair way. Companies are also incentivised to invest in low-carbon schemes, but what the result of all these are, it’s still too early to tell in its entirety, but some companies are embracing change. Renewing and sustaining No longer a matter simply around the green agenda, but about survival of economies as we know them. Whether it’s regulation or corporate social responsibility driving the agenda, understanding about renewable sources of energy, what they are and the pros and cons is essential for business. Pulling the procurement team into those initial discussions will help to determine the level of renewable energy the business actually needs. And take a strategic, long-term view. It’s no longer just about ‘buying’ energy but what fits in with the overall goals of the company.

Case study 1 Thames water is tackling the issue of rising energy costs by installing several generators on-site. It spends £90million on electricity so has started to recycle methane, a by-product of treating sewage water and now generates about 90% of its energy needs. The company is also installing wind turbines to supplement energy needs. “Trying to get my board to commit to a renewable scheme is difficult when the government keeps changing the goalposts,” says head of energy and carbon management John Gilbert. “The government needs to simplify the regulations on installing renewable systems because at the moment it’s taking too long and is extremely complicated.” Case study 2 Peterborough City Council is one of a handful of UK local authorities to set up an Energy Services Company (ESCo). It aims to be the first public micro utility in the UK and to be one step closer to becoming the UK’s Environment Capital and investing and developing in renewable energy generation.

The London Organising Committee of the Olympic and Paralympic Games (LOCOG) drove a sustainable approach to

costs, the pressure on buyers is immense, so while it’s good for

procurement saving £114million in the process and revolutionising

business to secure constant and competitively priced energy, it

supply management and saving  £114million in the process.

improves the reputation of the buyer who can achieve this. The

The construction company Saint-Gobain has invested in on- site generator to re-use cooking oil, producing heat and light. But understanding the regulations around renewables from the UK

demand for energy is set to double by 2050, so that’s a scary scenario to be faced with. As sources of energy become ever-more scarce, and competition

Government appears to be a challenge. Linda Burgess, energy

to stay afloat is ever fiercer, strategic procurement and supply chain

purchasing manager at the company has been quoted saying,

management, taking in all the elements of good practice will make

“Companies make investments based on economics. Without any

all the difference.

certainty, they become paralysed by indecision.”

CIPS has been working on a corporate award programme to improve purchasing skills in the Oil and Gas industry in Aberdeen.

In conclusion When money is tight, good buyers are worth their weight in liquid gold. A recent report – The State of Strategic Sourcing 2013, found that the best buyers were achieving cost savings for their organisations at a rate of three and a half times (11.3%), compared to ‘ordinary’ buyers offering only 3.2% in savings. Saving money as always is the top priority of most businesses as the Chief Procurement Officers of the report echo.  For consumers and businesses faced with ever-rising energy

David Noble CEO The Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply www.cips.org


RISK MANAGEMENT

The forgotten art of best practice - Ben Dhesi head of energy management at Pulse Commercial Utilities believes that this can only be achieved across the electricity procurement supply chain

U

nder much scrutiny in recent years, Third Party

competitiveness of a contract offer as each component will have

Intermediary (TPI) electricity brokers, seem to have

vastly different market fundamentals and accepted trading

shifted the top end of their market to take on

methods.

increased RISK only where supply company’s wish to relinquish it.

Alongside a FORENSIC analysis of non-commodity charges, the starting point in the supply chain, the evaluation of base data

Of course with an understanding of Risk/Return this may be

appears to be a ‘forgotten art’, such that supplier selection now

acceptable in the search for improved price outcomes, especially

largely excludes this fundamental consideration; and many

as non-commodity and commodity components of fully delivered

‘flexible’ contract options are entered into with a large slice of

prices come under pressure.

‘trust’ that the supplier interpretation of the ‘shape’ is in the

The vogue for more innovative and challenging ‘flexible’ commodity procurement arrangements does not appear to be abating. However, has this change in focus left behind some fundamental elements of procurement best practise, where greater ‘value added’ can be realised at lower risk? A FORENSIC analysis of the electricity procurement supply

mutual interest. In simple terms it is possible to break down forecast electricity consumption to ‘fit’ underlying vertical markets. As an example consider a consumers’ electricity consumption over the course of a contract year. After aggregating each of the consumers supply points, suppliers will seek initially to interpret data according to EFA

chain can deliver improved price outcomes even before

month and then to apportion the forecast volume into constituent

commodity purchasing has to be considered.

parts, firstly detailing PEAK consumption which coincides with

One such tool is PROFILE OPTIMISATION (or shape analysis), where half hourly metered data can be evaluated to provide certainty of product requirement and assist in BOTH supplier and procurement strategy selection. A universal procedure used by TPI’s is to provide half hourly data to potential suppliers offering a forecast dataset

the national system peak demand; ordinarily classed as 07:00am to 19:00pm on a weekday. The remaining volume is then either demarcated as BASE LOAD or RESIDUAL (BUY/SELL) and trading solutions positioned accordingly. In the first instance the apportionment of PEAK load to a

for the contract period under scrutiny. Each supplier has

flexible procurement solution is not always necessary; and

vastly different methodologies of analysis for such

often through innate understanding and negotiation of the

information, and utilising various software algorithms, derives

supplier requirements for balancing and settlement, such tacit

potentially conflicting volumes of PEAK, BASE and

volumes can be reduced, if not eliminated from the volume

RESIDUAL electricity which must be procured in supporting

risk.

vertical markets. Such apportionment can therefore immediately affect the

This can have a dramatic effect on fully delivered prices as evidenced in the example shown overleaf: …continued on page 46

45


46

RISK MANAGEMENT

…continued from page 45 Example Client: Total annual contract volume of 14,400,000 kilowatt hours

In this simple example only 4% of the shape is RESIDUAL, and although there are different markets for residual buy and

(kWh) apportioned as 61% BASELOAD and 39% PEAK as

sell, the weighted average (W/A) price of the two products is

illustrated according to the EFA month split shown below.

significantly above the £/MWh costs for comparable Base products.

Using the example of both October 2014 PEAK and October 2014 BASE products, the variation in market price is clear to see – showing an average 13% differential or £8.51/MWh.

Using the market average prices previously shown, and recent indicative peak buy/peak sell prices the following is offered: With the W/A price for residual at £74.39/MWh (in this example) an average difference of £9.99/MWh is evident in comparison to the BASE average commodity price. Even allowing that only 4% of the shape is residual, total elimination of the residual elements will reduce the commodity price risk by a further 5%; offering a potential 10% saving to the fully delivered price if average prices are achieved. When combined with high quality and innovative risk and procurement strategies, BEST PRACTISE can again be claimed, as TPI management ‘across’ the electricity procurement supply

Therefore by mitigating the total Peak volume the commodity

chain offers consumers a lower risk with improved outcomes.

price risk of 39% of the total shape can be reduced by 13% in this instance. (A weighted average TARGET saving of 5% to the whole shape). A further differential is evident to commodity costs for BASE and RESIDUAL products; so once RESIDUAL is identified (either BUY or SELL) careful negotiation can be undertaken to mitigate the volume risk in RESIDUAL markets.

Ben Dhesi Head of Energy Management T: 0333 7000 250 F: 0333 7000 251 E: bdhesi@pulseutilities.co.uk


ENERGY PROCUREMENT MANAGEMENT EFFICIENCY

2013

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48

CARBON CAPTURE & STORAGE

Whilst the importance of and need for CCS remains unquestionable, the

progress of CCS in the UK has been slower than expected rate of

W

hereas other countries are already moving ahead

“UK gas and coal power stations equipped with carbon capture,

and building CCS projects, in the UK it will

transport and storage have clear potential to be cost competitive

realistically be a few more years before the first

with other forms of low-carbon power generation, delivering

commercial-scale CCS plant is operating. The case for CCS is stronger than ever. The IEA, in its Energy

electricity at a levelised cost approaching £100/MWh by the early 2020s, and at a cost significantly below £100/MWh soon

Technology Perspectives 2012 report, concluded that to meet the

thereafter.” According to the report, the first CCS projects will

aim of limiting global temperature increase to 2°C by 2050 (the

have costs in the range of £150-200/MWh. The final report also

2°C scenario or 2DS), CCS would need to contribute one-sixth of

recommended seven key next steps to support the development of

the total emissions reductions required. In addition, the same

the CCS industry in the UK, as well as the establishment of three

report concluded that without CCS, the cost of meeting the 2DS

new leadership groups to take forward these recommendations; a

would increase by 40%. The UK is similarly committed to a

‘UK CO2 Storage Development Group’, a ‘UK CCS Commercial

statutory target of an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions

Development Group’ and a UK CCS Knowledge Transfer

by 2050, and the Government’s advisor on climate change, the

Network.

Committee on Climate Change, have estimated that “not having

However, these cost reductions can only be realised through a

CCS available as an option could increase the costs of meeting the

steady roll-out of CCS. So what is the UK doing to deliver this

2050 target by 0.4% of GDP in 2050”. To meet the 80% target, the

roll-out? Well, after the first UK CCS competition (launched in

Committee on Climate Change has repeatedly recommended that

2007) failed to reach a successful conclusion, the Government

the power sector in the UK should be decarbonised by 2030, and

quickly launched a new competition, called the “CCS

this will require significant deployment of CCS – on both coal

Commercialisation Programme” in April 2012. This competition

and gas. Although nuclear and renewables will both be important

is in its final throes now. £1 billion was retained from the previous

options for decarbonisation, fossil fuel power with CCS will be

competition and is available as capital support for the projects that

needed in the foreseeable future to balance the inflexibility of

will finally be selected – to be in operation by 2016-2020. After a

nuclear and the intermittency of renewables – thereby ensuring a

period of intensive commercial negotiations, the Government

diverse and secure electricity mix.

announced two preferred bidders in March 2013 - the Peterhead

CCS will become an extremely cost-effective low-carbon

gas-CCS project in Scotland and the White Rose oxyfuel project on

technology; the costs can be expected to come down considerably

the Drax site. A further two projects were also selected as ‘reserve’

once the early projects have been built. The UK established a CCS

projects. An announcement is expected shortly on the award of

Cost Reduction Task Force in May 2012, to identify the best

FEED study contracts for the two preferred bidders, after which

options and opportunities for cost reduction across the CCS chain

these projects will carry out detailed design work over a period of

to achieve cost competitive CCS in the 2020s. The final report of

about 18 months.

the Task Force was published in May this year, and concluded that

Whilst the two projects coming through the Commercialisation …continued on page 50


CARBON CAPTURE & STORAGE

49


50

CARBON CAPTURE & STORAGE

…continued from page 48 Programme are undoubtedly a long-awaited welcome start to the CCS industry in the UK, questions still remain over what projects will follow. The main issue of concern facing CCS project developers beyond the Commercialisation Programme is the need for a sufficiently strong signal from Government regarding the direction of travel for CCS towards 2030, as well as certainty over the market mechanisms available. In a sense, the UK has the tools at its disposal to deliver both of these through the introduction of Electricity Market Reform (EMR) - the main financial incentive framework for CCS and other low-carbon technologies in the UK. The primary legislation to enact the EMR framework is currently going through Parliament in the form of the Energy Bill 2012/2013 and Royal Assent is expected towards the end of this year. The cornerstone mechanism in the EMR framework is the Contract for Differences (CfD) which represents the world’s first mechanism to incentivise CCS beyond early demonstration projects. Although it is hoped that the long-awaited EMR framework (and the CfD in particular) will bring much-needed financial certainty to investors, there are considerable risks of unintended consequences and deterred investment if the detailed implementation is not put together carefully. This is particularly the case for CCS, which has so far received comparatively little attention in recent publications setting out further details on the EMR design - including CfD allocation and price-setting arrangements, Capacity payments and the draft Delivery Plan, which has just been published for formal consultation. It is the Delivery Plan in particular which has the potential to send the much-needed signal to CCS developers about the Government’s objectives for CCS beyond the current Commercialisation Programme. The draft Delivery Plan includes an outlook to 2030 with a number of scenarios – in which higher deployment rates of CCS could deliver around 12 GW of CCS in 2030. It remains to be seen whether these scenarios will be taken as an indication of Government commitment or simply crystal ball gazing. The design of the CfD itself is also a difficult job – balancing three different types of low-carbon electricity generating technologies, all with very different and unique characteristics. As an example, the current design of the CfD proposes a contract length of 10-15 years for CCS Commercialisation Programme projects; yet the minimum lifespan of capital intensive CCS infrastructure is likely to be over 20 years. Therefore the 10-15 year contract length would result in a developer having to recoup their investment over a shorter timeframe, which


CARBON CAPTURE & STORAGE

51

in turn would likely increase the cost of the project. Moving beyond power, CCS is also a vital technology for many industrial sectors in the UK. In fact, CCS is currently the only abatement measure for carbon-intensive industries such as steel, cement and refineries, due to the fact that the CO2 is process as well as fuel-generated. The potential to develop CCS costeffectively for these vital industries will have a tremendous impact on their continued existence at a time of increasingly stringent climate change legislation – and this will ensure the creation and retention of important UK jobs and skills. However, mechanisms to incentivise industrial CCS opportunities have not been widely explored by the UK government and unfortunately very often do not receive sufficient attention. Crucial to the cost-effective deployment of CCS for both power and industrial sectors is the creation of regional transport and storage hubs and which can carry CO2 from a number of different carbon-intensive sources to a network of large reliable offshore storage sites. Such transport and storage hubs are key to achieving significant cost reductions in CCS, and ultimately reducing the cost to consumers. However, the design of such hubs must be considered at an early stage in the CCS industry, and it is therefore vital that the projects coming through the Commercialisation Programme as well as the design of the EMR framework, takes sufficient account of how to incentivise the development of these hubs. CCS is not just a climate change mitigation technology; it represents a major investment in UK infrastructure. And similar to other major infrastructure investments, CCS will deliver significant benefits to the UK economy. The global market for CCS is expected to be worth trillions of dollars by 2050 with the UK share estimated at £6.5 billion per year by 2030, supporting more than 100,000 jobs. Combined with an estimated CO2 storage potential in the North Sea of 70 billion tonnes as well as a world-class oil and gas industry, the UK cannot fail to seize the opportunity to become one of the world leading countries in this important technology.

Judith Shapiro Policy and communications manager The Carbon Capture & Storage Association E: judith.shapiro@ccsassociation.org W: www.ccsassociation.org


52

CASE STUDY

Purchasing renewable

energy is a strategic move for Holland

& Barrett

H

olland and Barrett’s decision to take 100 percent renewable power from Haven is being mirrored by more and more multi-site retail groups across the

country, as businesses are realising that the benefits of renewable power extend beyond improved public perception. Of course, as the pressure grows to become more sustainable, companies are looking at how they can boost their environmental credentials. Just having a recycling bin on site is no longer good enough. We are increasingly seeing the demise of the single-use carrier bag and for new-builds, energy-saving technologies are becoming the norm. Holland and Barrett’s requirement

All of Holland & Barrett's 760 stores will be powered by biomassfuelled electricity.

As part of the company’s ‘Plan It Green’ initiative, Holland & Barrett, the UK’s leading health food retailer, was determined to switch to a more sustainable energy source. Throughout Holland & Barrett’s 90 year history the company has

and in the future and this is because of parent company Drax’s

implemented a number of schemes to protect the world’s natural

investment in biomass. Currently, Drax is transforming itself into a

resources and habitats. These include banning single use plastic

predominantly biomass-fuelled generator, by converting three of its

bags, adopting an ethical policy when sourcing raw materials and

six generators to burn biomass instead of coal.

removing all harsh chemicals such as parabens and sodium lauryl sulphate from toiletry products and body care ranges.

Biomass, produced from organic, plant-based material such as woodchips, is both renewable and sustainable over its entire lifecycle and delivers large carbon savings. Sustainability of biomass is

Haven Power’s background

of course critical and all of Drax’s biomass is from sustainable

Customers choosing Haven’s renewable power option (called

sources. Drax monitors and controls its whole biomass supply chain

Levy Exempt Power) won’t have to pay the Climate Change Levy,

to ensure that the strict sustainability criteria are met.

which is a tax levied by the government on fuels used by businesses, including electricity, because renewable power is exempt. This

Haven’s approach

option is available at no extra cost compared to electricity generated

Working with energy consultant, Electron Commercial Utilities,

from traditional fuel sources. Haven benefits from excellent supplies of renewable power, now

Haven was able to meet Holland & Barrett’s needs in terms of a straightforward contract which supplied renewable energy.


CASE STUDY

Drax, Haven's parent company, is gradually transforming into a predominantly biomass-fuelled generator. Huge biomass storage domes and a railway line are being built.

“Businesses in all sectors are thinking more strategically when it comes to energy purchasing,” comments Haven Power’s Sales and

green for years - well before it became fashionable. “Our Plan It Green programme means we are constantly looking

Marketing Director, Richard Robey. “There are more choices in

for ways to lower our carbon footprint and ensure our energy saving

terms of both suppliers and products, so a ‘one size fits all’ approach

and recycling schemes span the whole business from warehouse to

no longer applies. Taking power from a renewable source is an easy

stores.

way to increase sustainability without compromising tight budgets.

“The decision to adopt 100% sustainable biomass energy was an

Our team of experts work closely with customers to ensure they are

easy one for us because Haven Power’s dedication to renewable energy

provided with a service and electricity product that suits their business

mirrors our own values.”

– from procurement through to billing.” The result Holland & Barrett will use Haven Power to supply renewable electricity across all of its 760 stores. Roger Craddock, Director at NBTY Europe, commented: “As the UK’s leading health food and natural remedy retailer, we have been

Roger Craddock Legal director NBTY Europe Tel: 02476 215400

53


54

SUSTAINABLE PROCUREMENT

Is

sustainability just an eco buzz-word or is it

a mainstream agenda item that could be utilised by procurement professional

or their benefit?

I

’ll get straight to the point - I don’t really like the term

good governance and sound science/ data. Good governance in

’Sustainability’... but I do like the expressions ‘sustainable

particular is now seen as vital to achieving long-term sustainable

business’, ‘sustainable development’ and ‘sustainable

success, since strong leadership is required, backed-up by

procurement’. I get a feeling that they actually mean something. We’ve probably all come across the fairly established definition of ‘sustainability’: Development that meets the needs of the present without

planned, sustained support and control: leadership from the board, senior directors and ‘non-environmental’ managers. In my experience, over the last 2-3 years particularly, I’ve found a reluctance on the part of, for example, the financial fraternity to

compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own

really take on board the non-financial aspects [societal /

needs.1

environmental] of ‘sustainable business’; perhaps, because the topic is not taken seriously by the board and by the business;

Good stuff, but, from a business perspective I like the description used by The Chartered Institute of Management Accountants (CIMA)2 ... to describe sustainable business planning: The way an organisation creates value for its shareholders and society by maximising the positive and minimising the negative effects of environmental, social and economic issues. By the way, it’s also one of the very few explanations that talks about maximising the positives, not just minimising the negatives. Without a business or personally focused definition, ‘Sustainability’ can become one of those terms like ‘enviro’, ‘eco’ and ‘green’ that are used frequently by folk who want to sound contemporary, but whose real knowledge of environment, energy, climate change, natural capital, the circular economy, etc. is often wafer thin. ‘Sustainability’ becomes background wall paper – a generalised policy statement pinned on the notice board, rather than a mainstream agenda item. ‘Sustainability’ is often referred to as looking after ‘Profit/ People/ Planet’ or ‘The Triple Bottom-line’ but these alliterative/ imaginative titles unfortunately exclude two other essential areas: …continued on page 56


SUSTAINABLE PROCUREMENT

55


56

SUSTAINABLE PROCUREMENT

…continued from page 54 perhaps, because the benefits have not been explained in language

and the requirement applies to company reporting years ending

that’s business-like and understood.

on or after 30 September 2013, so this could mean that data back

I’m delighted, therefore, to be contributing to a CIMA Global conference in November entitled ‘Beyond the Financials’3. The

to October 2012 may be required. Don’t sit back if you are not a quoted company because the

aim: to make real sustainable actions happen through educating

regulation will be reviewed in 2015, when it may be extended out

and engaging some of the most important people in the team –

to all large companies ... and this could mean data may be

those who authorise and control the spend. I’m hopeful the

required that covers 2014 – and that’s not far away!

audience will be populated by financial and procurement

Then, of course ... doesn’t every organisation in any case have a

professionals, not just those already in the sustainable business/

duty to understand, reveal and improve their impact on society

procurement ‘know’.

and the environment; not just on the dividend.

The time has come the polar bear said to think of many things: ... why? Well, for starters ... the UK Government has announced that under the Companies Act 2006 Regulations 2013, quoted companies face a duty to report their annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in their directors’ report. Legislation will state that a company must report on materially important emissions for which it is responsible; emissions in activities over which it has

Are YOU a sustainable business? Do you: 1. Incorporate principles of sustainability into each of your business decisions? 2. Supply environmentally friendly products or services that replace demand for non-green products and/or services? 3. Have an enduring commitment to environmental principles in your business operations?

control. And, by the way, the regulations require companies to report their global emissions, not just their UK ones. The legislation is scheduled to be applicable from October 2013

A sustainable business means: Energy efficiency: improving energy efficiency and cutting emissions Resource efficiency: using natural resources in the most effective way and as many times as possible Sustainable travel: reducing business travel; teleconferencing; encouraging employees to use alternative forms of transport Sustainable logistics: using more efficient distribution methods to reduce impact AND Sustainable procurement: buying goods and services sustainably The modern procurement professional needs to understand sustainable procurement, and The Environment Agency4 (EA) describes this as follows. They say: We are consuming too many resources, generating too much waste, and causing irreversible damage to the environment and the climate. The increasing burden we are placing on the planet cannot go on forever. Procurement has an important part to play in delivering a


SUSTAINABLE PROCUREMENT

sustainable future. By thinking carefully about the goods, services,

an approach that costs more. In truth, sustainable solutions can

works and utilities we buy, how we buy them, and who we buy

often cost less over the whole life of the purchase. Key benefits

them from, purchasing decisions can contribute to the

include:

achievement of sustainable development goals such as wise use of

• better risk management

natural resources, reduced energy consumption and carbon

• lower whole-life costs

dioxide emissions, waste minimisation, fair and ethical trade,

• a diverse and flexible supply chain

social progress, equality and economic stability.

• a competitive edge in your industry • protection and enhancement of the environment

WRAP has a vision of a world without waste, where resources 5

are used sustainably, and they say:

• more efficient use of resources • greater social inclusion

Sustainable procurement embeds environmental, economic and social criteria into contractual documents with the aim of

• fair and ethical trade • support for innovation

motivating suppliers to offer more sustainable products and services. What is required is a review of corporate and

I believe that the benefits of a sustainable business plan – which

procurement documentation, such as policy, targets, project brief,

includes high on its priority list ‘sustainable procurement’ – are

tender evaluations and contracts to help embed sustainable

clear, but these cannot be fully explored here. It is incumbent

procurement within policy and practice.

upon the purchasing world to explore ‘sustainable business, sustainable development and sustainable procurement’ much

Sustainable Procurement

more fully, to question, to understand - and to embed into business as usual. When you do your next tender or buy your next product, will

Set clear sustainable procurement objectives

‘sustainable procurement’ be in your thoughts, or will it be left for ‘next time’? Don’t tell it to buzz-off; put it at the top of the

Use resources efficiently

Work with Suppliers

agenda! 1 The Brundtland Commission

Protect biodiversity Award contracts based on ‘best value’

Use life cycle cost analysis

2 CIMA Global: http://www.cimaglobal.com/ 3 CIMA Conference 13/14 November QEII Conference Centre, London 4 EA: http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/ 5 WRAP: a not-for-profit company backed by government funding.

Reduce long-term risks

http://www.wrap.org.uk/content/about-wrap

Take ownership of and responsibility for your environmental & social impacts However, I say it must become accepted that when goods are purchased, the company also accepts a measure of responsibility for the environmental impacts that occur at every stage of the life cycle of the product, from extraction of raw materials, transportation, manufacture, distribution and use, through to disposal. Sustainable procurement is often thought of as an ‘add-on’ or

Andrew Jones – CEng FEI BEng MCIBSE Director EAV Associates Email: eavassociates@aol.com

57


58

ENERGY TRENDS

At a time of such uncertainty in global energy markets, we felt it opportune to highlight

five global trends which are set to shape

the future of energy, from the viewpoint of Schneider Electric, as a leading global

energy management company

T

he following five trends provide useful information and

see slow but consistent economic growth going forward. Essentially,

guidance to consider as you try to navigate your way

the focus on energy efficiency and lower energy intensity will offset

through the decision-making process related to energy

the impact of increased economic activity in developed nations.

demand, supply, and sustainability:

Another key influence on energy demand going forward is population growth which is expected to rise to over 9 billion by

Global Energy & Crude Oil Trends - Global energy

2040. Higher energy consumption will not only be as a result of a

demand will continue to grow in coming decades….just not in

rising global population, but also due to the increasing availability

developed countries

of electric power on a global scale. Currently, 1.3 billion people in

Global Emissions Schemes - Harsh lessons for the European carbon market should benefit new emissions schemes

Crude Oil’s Shale Revolution - Why the US oil shale revolution is a big deal…except for the consumer

Global Natural Gas - How global natural gas price divergences are bringing the world together

Global Power Trends - The inherent volatile nature of power markets will remain, despite the changing generation mix

the world do not have access to electricity, with leading emerging markets such as India lacking basic electricity access for a quarter of its population. As these nations steadily grow and mature, infrastructure will be built out, and access will accordingly rise. Industrial demand is another sector that will drive energy use in developing nations; it is projected to account for 70% of global industrial demand by 2040. A countertrend is already underway in developed nations, where lesser manufacturing activity and higher energy efficiency means lower energy consumption from this

Global energy demand will continue to grow in the coming decades… just not in developed countries A number of recent research reports from the likes of the US

sector. According to Exxon Mobil, industrial demand for energy in India is expected to triple between now and 2040. Meanwhile, industrial demand in China is expected to peak in 2025 and then

Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International

subsequently decline by 20% to 2040 as it transitions to a developed

Energy Agency (IEA), as well as ‘big oil’ companies such as Exxon

nation, with more of an emphasis on energy efficiency. While much

Mobil and BP, have served to highlight a common theme running

remains unknown for the global economy and changing energy

through the world of energy: a distinct dichotomy in global energy

landscape over the coming decades, increasing energy efficiency in

consumption has emerged and is set to continue in the coming

the developed world is set to be as strong a trend as any, perhaps

years. For although global energy demand is set to grow by a third

only overshadowed by the theme of growing energy demand in

over the next two decades, demand from developed nations is set to

developing nations.

remain relatively flat. In other words, global demand growth will be entirely generated by developing nations. This is not to suggest that developed countries are going to see deteriorating economic conditions, and hence lower energy demand; they are expected to

What does it mean to you? Staying abreast of these market developments is a must, because such developments can drive long-term strategic decisions. From


ENERGY TRENDS

new plant sites to input-fuel choices to demand- side management,

virtually worthless over the past year as oversupply has plagued the

understanding how and where energy markets are evolving and

scheme; something we should be wary of with new schemes. There

what it means for prices can help you make competitive strategic

are also additional challenges to conquer, such as balancing political

decisions. And as global demand increases in developing nations,

influence. After all, the EU ETS has seen some member states

the focus will shift towards the emerging markets, where a mix of

negotiate overly generous permit allocations, creating inequality in

liberalisation and regulation will prove difficult to navigate

the scheme and exacerbating the situation of oversupply.

successfully.

Meanwhile, some countries such as the UK have taken steps to try to account for the scheme’s shortcomings, introducing a carbon

Harsh lessons for the European carbon market should benefit new emissions schemes The EU ETS has lived through an unprecedented time in the

floor price to ensure polluters pay a minimum amount of money for the emissions they produce. So where are these new emissions markets? California is leading

global economy, which has seen it presented with all manner of

the charge in the US, as it has established a cap-and-trade

unexpected challenges and obstacles. The EU ETS has been taught

programme, which was finalised in October of 2011. The

some harsh lessons in recent years, and it is these lessons which

programme began at the beginning of 2013, with the power

should be of the greatest benefit to those new markets that are

generation sector the first required participants, while other sectors

being planned. While the first phase of the EU ETS was launched as

are expected to fall under compliance over the next five years. The

a test phase in 2005 as part of a ‘cap and trade’ approach to lowering the emissions of the 27 member countries of the EU, prices fell to virtually zero as the phase finished at the end of 2007. The second phase was somewhat more successful until prices tumbled in the latter years due to a combination of an over-issuance of permits and a global recession, which served to drive down demand. But the EU ETS looks a roaring success when compared to its United Nations counterpart. While European permits have fallen considerably, UN permits have become …continued on page 60

59


60

ENERGY TRENDS

…continued from page 59 goal of the programme is to reduce GHG emissions to 1990 levels

understand which countries may bring the most immediate

by 2020, Carbon credits have been actively trading since August

requirements, and how those requirements will impact not just

2011.

individual plants, but your overall carbon footprint and long-term

China has also started a pilot carbon programme at the

corporate sustainability strategy.

beginning of this year, encompassing seven locations - two provinces and five major cities - approved by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) in October 2011. As the world’s largest emitter of CO2, the programmes are targeting

Why the US oil shale revolution is a big deal...except for the consumer In 2005 the US was importing 60% of its oil needs. US oil

emissions reductions from the power generation and

production had been in structural decline since the late 1980s,

manufacturing sectors, with an underlying goal of breaking the

leaving the country not only highly reliant upon supplies from

country’s reliance on coal. The NDRC hopes to expand the scheme

neighbours Canada and Mexico, but also from countries such as

to a national scale by 2015, but many potential hurdles remain –

Venezuela, Nigeria, Russia, and Saudi Arabia.

perhaps none as challenging as for the regulated power market,

But the US has experienced a remarkable turnaround in its

which limits the ability for power generators to pass on the

energy fortunes in the past few years. Hydraulic fracturing and

increased costs of lower-emission resources or efficiency

onshore shale plays have turned the domestic natural gas market on

investments onto consumers.

its head, and now a similar scenario is underway in the domestic oil

A third and final example is Australia, which has for a long time

market. The most recent statistics are startling. US crude

planned to link to the EU ETS in 2015. The scheme was officially

production grew 14.6% in 2012, achieving the highest year-on-year

approved in late 2011, but has been brought into question recently

increase since 1995. The start of 2013 has seen production break

given the turmoil seen in the EU ETS market. Regardless, Australia

above seven million barrels per day to reach a 20-year high.

is set to aggressively target emissions reductions from the power

Even more remarkably, exponential growth is being seen from

generation and transportation sectors, particularly as coal is a large

just a few shale plays, with a number more yet to reveal their full

component of generation in the country. This will also help them to

potential. Of the shale plays currently ramping up, production is

achieve their Kyoto Protocol commitments for the second

surpassing even the most bullish of expectations. The original US

commitment period of the protocol, which begins this year.

shale play is the Bakken shale in North Dakota, which saw

Even though the EU ETS scheme may be viewed as much less of

production increase 58% in 2012 versus the prior year to average

a success as initially hoped, it may by the end of the decade still

769,000 barrels per day. Meanwhile, the ramp-up of output in the

achieve its goal of lowering emissions by 21% from 2005 levels,

Permian and Western Gulf Basins has led oil production for the

albeit inadvertently due to challenging economic conditions. The

state of Texas to double in the last three years, reversing a

biggest legacy of the scheme, however, may be its self-sacrificing

downward trend which had been in place for the past 23 years.

nature. For without the shortcomings of this pioneering and

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), this trend

ambitious scheme, other global schemes would likely not be in a

of increasing domestic output is only set to continue. The agency

stronger position to succeed.

predicts imports will drop to about four million barrels per day in a decade from the current average of 10 million barrels per day. This

What does it mean to you?

drop will not only be due to increasing production in the US, but

As governments and other organisations trudge up the learning

also due to higher fuel-efficiency standards for vehicles. In fact, the

curve of how to successfully reduce emissions, it is a safe bet that

IEA projects total US liquids production (includes crude and

those requirements will be passed on to industrial users.

natural gas liquids) will surpass that of Saudi Arabia by 2020 to

Calculating and tracking a company’s global carbon footprint is one

reach 11.1 million barrels per day. This will mean that the world’s

of the first steps in creating a Sustainability strategy, though it is no

largest fuel consumer will become the world’s largest producer.

easy step. Throw into the mix the varying schemes in different countries or regions and you have a recipe for confusion. Be sure to

Given this domestic backdrop, there is a presumption that growing domestic production will lead to lower fuel costs in the US,


ENERGY TRENDS

these markets can be without in-depth research to drive conclusions and actions.

Global natural gas – how price divergences are bringing the world together It is almost incredulous to consider that US natural gas prices were seven times higher in the summer of 2008 than they were in the spring of 2012. A lot has happened in recent years, but there is only one main reason for such a sea change in the dynamics of the US as has been the case with natural gas. Unfortunately, this is unlikely

natural gas market – shale. After achieving a high of $13.60/MMbtu

to be the case. Whereas natural gas is priced domestically given the

in the summer of 2008, prices experienced a cataclysmic fall for the

lack of ability to export, gasoline and diesel prices are much more

rest of the year as the global recession took hold. But even as other

dictated by the input price of crude oil, which is driven to a large

commodities such as oil started to rebound from their lows in 2009

part by global, not domestic, fundamentals. If the global dynamics

as demand - and hence a sense of balance - returned to these

reflected the dynamics of the US domestic market, this

markets, US natural gas prices were unable to halt the bleeding.

presumption might hold true. The reality is that demand in

The game-changer was shale, as emerging unconventional plays

developed countries such as the US is currently declining, and is set

required much lower breakeven prices than those seen by their

to flat-line over the coming years and decades due to increasing

conventional counterparts. This was largely due to increased

efficiencies and declining energy intensity as the economy shows

efficiencies involved such as horizontal drilling combined with

less of a focus on manufacturing. Meanwhile, global oil demand

hydraulic fracturing. The supply glut was then further exacerbated

growth is set to rise at a rapid clip, driven on by emerging market

by the emergence of oil-bearing shale plays in the past few years.

demand.

Despite focus on the much more profitable commodity of oil,

So while the US will see distinct benefits from rising domestic

associated natural gas was still produced in sizeable volume, and

production in the form of greater energy independence, benefits at

essentially produced for free because oil was the primary focus. US

the pump seem a much less likely scenario.

domestic production has relentlessly ramped up in recent years, and remains near record levels. Given this backdrop of cheap and

What does it mean to you?

abundant supply, it is no surprise that US natural gas prices have

Global oil markets will still dictate the prices, even as production

averaged below $4/MMbtu since the beginning of 2009.

of oil from shale grows in the US. The challenge of understanding

On the other side of the world, just as stark a shift in market

global crude markets fundamentals combined with global crude

dynamics can be seen in Asian natural gas prices, but in an

products markets fundamentals is immense. Throw in the influence

opposing manner to that of the US. Prior to the Fukushima Daiichi

of complicated geopolitics, and the challenge of keeping up with

nuclear disaster of March 2011, Japan relied upon nuclear reactors

and understanding how crude and product prices will evolve,

to meet 30% of its electricity needs. However, in the aftermath of

becomes time and cost-prohibitive for companies whose core

the tragedy the country took all 54 nuclear reactors offline. This left

business is not forecasting energy markets. The common

a gaping hole in Japan’s energy requirements, and one which natural

presumption that the US shale oil boom should reduce gasoline and

gas was immediately relied upon to help fill. Just a glance at the

diesel prices in the US is a great example of how counterintuitive

chart on the page below highlights the divergence in Japanese prices …continued on page 62

61


62

ENERGY TRENDS

‌continued from page 61 from their global counterparts due to the immediate demand response following the Fukushima disaster, with prices accordingly propelled higher. Although the first few nuclear reactors are starting to return to service, increased reliance on natural gas will be an ongoing trend for the foreseeable future. Finally, the European natural gas market has continued to see prices moving broadly in sympathy with oil, as a good deal of Europe’s natural gas contracts are still tied to oil- indexed pricing. So while US prices continued to be suppressed by increasing supply in 2009, European natural gas prices rose in tandem with oil. We are starting to see a material shift in this purchasing behaviour, however, as an increasing number of buyers are making purchases on liberalised hubs, which are dictated

What does it mean to you? As the global LNG market grows in the coming years, price

by gas-specific fundamentals (though still influenced by oil price

environments can shift dramatically, contract structures may

movements). Given the backdrop of falling supply from the North

change, and new opportunities may arise. Indeed, the increasingly

Sea, an increasing reliance on imports, and elevated oil prices, UK

interdepending natural gas markets will introduce new complexities

and European natural gas prices have remained far more elevated in

to natural gas markets everywhere. Thinking several years ahead of

recent times than the weaker demand-side fundamentals would

the curve as to how the global arbitrage may bring global prices and

lead us to expect.

markets together may prevent missed opportunities for end-users.

Despite the fact that Asia, the US, and Europe are seeing distinctly different pricing environments given their contrasting regional fundamentals, it is these price divergences which are accelerating the natural gas market to become more global. And

Power Price Volatility & the Changing Generation Mix Energy prices have a long tradition of being more volatile than

these markets are set to be inextricably more closely linked in the

most other commodities or traded financial products. Near-term

coming years due to the expansion of the global LNG market. The

prices are more volatile than forward contracts, while day ahead

US is set to have an increasing impact on the global market in

electric power prices are among the most volatile of all energy

coming years, as LNG exports will be a viable option from the US

prices. Indeed, day-ahead Germany power prices are more than

by 2016. Arguably the largest interest in long- term contracts with

three times more volatile than day-ahead UK gas prices.

potential US LNG exporters has come from Japan, as the country

When markets experience real-time supply shortfalls, inventories

seeks long-term stability and diversification in its energy flows. The

of a commodity are called upon to make up the difference. For

UK, and ergo European prices, meanwhile, will likely not only

example, in many natural gas markets around the world, winter

benefit from having a new prospective supplier, but also from

consumption cannot be met by daily production and imports, so

having additional supply available in the global market. Ultimately,

supplies are drawn from storage facilities to meet demand. This

the development of LNG exports will help to lower the cost of

helps to stabilise prices by effectively eliminating the shortfall. The

natural gas on a global scale, though could push domestic prices

same philosophy can be applied for shorter term, rather than

higher for newer exporting nations such as the US.

seasonal, spikes in demand – inventories are a supply cushion and


ENERGY TRENDS

can mitigate some of the price volatility. Unlike coal, natural gas, oil products, and many agricultural commodities, electric power cannot be stored in commercial quantities. This provides a distinct market differentiation for power relative to other commodities. If supply is to meet the demand in a power market, generation (supply) capacity must be at least as great as the volume of demand at its peak. Given the extreme volatility exhibited in electricity consumption, generation capacity needs to be much greater than the average demand load across a year. This is much different to a market such as natural gas, where a supply cushion is provided by the ability to store gas for

As renewable generation capacity and utilisation grows in global

times of higher demand.

power markets, we are likely to see increasing volatility in electric

Supply capacity for natural gas, excluding storage, can therefore fall short of peak demand. This, in turn, means electricity grids

power prices, with Germany – as a leader in renewable generation – providing an example now of how the future will look.

need to manage the level of demand, which plays into how physical supply contracts can be structured for industrial and commercial users. Interruptible supply contracts may provide price advantages

How we can help / What does it mean to you? These market characteristics create risks and opportunities for

to industrial and commercial users that can reduce or even

end-users, which can be managed actively. By sourcing strategically,

eliminate electricity consumption on short notice. This also creates

physical supply contracts can be chosen based on key factors such

additional regulatory involvement regarding supply and demand

as pricing, contract terms, product structures, credit conditions, all

relative to other commodities; one form of additional regulation is

of which can contribute to the ability to reduce the price risk and

that of the required capacity margin – a mandated cushion of

volatility. In markets where possible, employing a dynamic hedging

generation capacity beyond the expected peak demand. But

strategy can also mitigate exposure to price spikes and help to

perhaps most strikingly, this lack of storage capability creates

ensure financial plans are met. Gathering stakeholders to put a

extreme fluctuations in price, as real-time supply shortages are

strategy in place, guided by research and forecasts for market

directly reflected in the market price. This price volatility can wreak

dynamics is key to managing the exposure to extremely volatile

havoc on a financial budget.

power prices.

As demand for electric power grows, it becomes essential for generation capacity to increase. In 2010, the year for which the most recent data is available, world generation capacity had grown 23% in the preceding five years. Of these capacity additions, 34% were renewable sources of electric power (wind, solar, etc.). A recent study by Schneider Electric Professional Services’ Global Research & Analytics team analysed the positive relationship in power markets with higher proportions of the generation mix coming from renewables and the greater volatility in those markets.

Matt Smith Commodity Analyst Schneider Electric enquiries@ems.schneiderelectric.com

63


64

ATTITUDES TO ENERGY

Although

renewable energy, particularly onsite, may not the

cheapest option it has many advantages such as being low carbon and

supply for a business, it is also becoming increasingly popular as a survey by Cadence Fisher demonstrates

increasing security of

W

hile consumers are split on whether fracking or

Men (60%) more than women (43%) have some knowledge of the

wind farms are the way forward in the race

UK renewable goal.

towards renewable energy being widely accepted,

And when it comes to the controversial methods of generating

three in four adults would adopt a form of renewable energy if

renewable energy, wind farms are marginally more preferred

they felt they could afford it and understood the paperwork

(53%) in their area than fracking, which is interesting when one

associated with it. More than one in four (29%), increasing to a

considers the opposition to fracking by environmental group at

staggering 42% of 18 – 24 year olds, would be interested in

present. Perhaps they are not representative of the communities at

working on projects voluntarily to bring renewable energy to

which they are demonstrating or maybe it’s a case of fracking is

their community.

OK as long as it’s not near me. The issue of nuclear power is split,

Deepika Swamy, Energy Communications Consultant at

while nearly one in two (46%) say they would like to see the

Cadence Fisher and author of the report said: “There is still a lot

government invest in a new generation of nuclear power, this is

of confusion about renewable energy, complicated even further by

nearly two thirds of men (60%) versus one in three women (32%).

the investigations into more invasive energy sourcing such as

However evidence suggests that environmental measures are

fracking. Our report clearly shows that the Government should be

popular in general with three in four UK adults (76%) believing

harnessing the power of the public to drive forward the renewable

that renewable energy is the future, supporting government

energy agenda.”

initiatives for the renewables industry including investment plans

The idea is tempered by an survey earlier this year also by

and tax breaks.

Cadence which suggested that just one in five (20%) is persuaded to the view that new ways of extracting and getting the best from fossil fuels and abundant natural gas will drive down the price of energy and push the currently more expensive renewables out of

*Populus interviewed 2,054 GB adults online between 20th and 22nd April 2012. Results have been weighted to be representative of all GB adults. Populus is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

the market. So the consensus seems to be that shale gas may help energy security but won’t deliver cheap energy or threaten the development of renewable energy sources. The latest Annual Attitudes to UK Industry survey, conducted among 2,000 adults by Populus* for CadenceFisher, found that nearly one in five (19%) adults under 25 are using some form of renewable energy, with just over one in ten people aged over 65 saying they are least likely to take this path. Two in three people in the same age group say they know of the UK government’s target of deriving 15% of energy from renewable sources by 2020.

Deepika Swamy Energy Communications Consultant CadenceFisher www.attitudestoukindustry.co.uk http://the-cadence-team.com


ATTITUDES TO ENERGY

The Annual Attitudes to UK Industry study is a series of snapshot polls and in-depth research culminating in an annual report to be presented at an industry event. CadenceFisher works with leading organisations across industry and has sponsored the study to help keep communications surrounding the sector’s importance and contribution to the economy front of mind. More information is available at www.attitudestoukindustry.co.uk

65


66

TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Technical maps and conversion table In the following pages you will find maps detailing UK Electricity Supply, and Europe & CIS Gas Supplies – and an Energy Conversion Table. Energy Conversion Table . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 67 UK Electricity Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Pages 68-71

68

69

70

71

Europe & CIS Gas Supply. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Pages 72-75

72

73

74

75

Maps courtesy of: The Petroleum Economist Limited (www.petroleum-economist.com)


Energy Conversion Table*

Supplied courtesy of

0.278

0.000004

0.0009

0.000341

0.00004

0.0095

26.4

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0.0001047

0.025

0.01729

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MT Fuel Oil

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0.00341

10

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0.0009

l Fuel Oil

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

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1

MT GasOil

0.0042

860

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11.11

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0.3881

1,150

0.0063

1,050

Sm3 Nat Gas

105.5

9,554

1,695.8

0.0388

436.08

0.9675

7.0261

therm

40

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11.3813

43.608

0.3669

1,075

MMBtu

6,120

9,784.66

12,788

0.0367

407.64

kWh

1 mega joule (MJ)

40.94

10,994,000

10.7586

40.764

kcal

1 kilocalorie (kcal)

46,000

9,249.3

11,954

MJ

1 MMBtu (million British Thermal Unit)

38.7

10,277,000

3)

1 barrel (bbl) Crude Oil 1 litre (l) Gas Oil

4)

2)

1 metric tonne (MT) Gas Oil 1 litre (l) Fuel Oil 4)

3)

1 standard cubic meter (Sm3) Natural Gas 1)

1 kWh (kilowatt-hour)

1 th (therm)

43,000

3

calorific value: 40 MJ / Sm

1 metric tonne (MT) Fuel Oil 1)

calorific value: 45,000 MJ / MT

gravity: 0.9 MT / m

3

3

calorific value: 43,000 MJ / MT

gravity: 0.89 MT / m

calorific value: 46,000 MJ / MT

gravity: 0.9577 MT / m (1 bbl oil = 136 kg)

3

2)

3)

4)

This data is to be used as a guide only - no responsibility will be taken for errors in decisions taken, based upon this data.

*


68

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THE POWER OF UNITY…

The benefits of being part of Drax are passed directly on to you Unlike most suppliers, Haven operates 'as one' with Drax, so our customers benefit from the removal of trading margins and access to a combined power trading desk. This means we can offer our customers the best possible prices. We can also offer Climate Change Levy (CCL) exempt energy now, and in the future. Generation and retail, working together. Sounds good, doesn’t it? Talk to us now about the advantages we could bring to your business.

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Energy Procurement 2013/14