Base Base case: case: Fuel Oil by fuel detail
…but gradually slows as the stimulus from transport fades • Oil demand is expected to grow throughout the Outlook - albeit at a slower pace than in the past. • The transport sector consumes most of the world’s liquid fuel, with its share of global demand remaining just under 60% over the Outlook. Transport accounts for almost two-thirds of the growth in overall demand (10 Mb/d), with that increase split roughly evenly between: cars (4 Mb/d); trucks (3 Mb/d); and ships, trains & planes (3 Mb/d). • But the stimulus from transport demand gradually fades, as fuel efficiency improves significantly and there is increasing penetration of non-oil fuels. Electricity, biofuels, coal and natural gas together account for 13% of transport fuel demand in 2035, up from 7% in 2015. • Decelerating transport demand for oil causes growth in total oil demand to slow gradually, falling from around 1 Mb/d p.a. in the near-term to 0.4 Mb/d p.a. by 2035. • Non-combusted use, especially within the petrochemicals sector, takes over as the main source of growth for liquids fuel demand by the early 2030s. Over the Outlook as a whole, demand for non-combusted use increases by 6 Mb/d.
2017 Energy Outlook
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© BP p.l.c. 2017