Lesmahagow Village Centre: Socio-Economic Baseline and Health Check Review Report for South Lanarkshire Council March 2012 EKOS Limited, St. George‟s Studios, 93-97 St. George‟s Road, Glasgow, G3 6JA Reg 145099
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Direct enquiries regarding this report should be submitted to: Mhairi Donaghy, Associate Director, EKOS Email: mhairi.donaghy@ekos.co.uk Tel: 0141 353 8309 Sarah Turnbull, Consultant, EKOS Email: sarah.turnbull@ekos.co.uk Tel: 0141 353 8318
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Contents 1.
Economic Baseline
1
1.1
Introduction
1
1.2
Demographics
1
1.3
Labour Market
3
1.4
Unemployment Rate
6
1.5
Secondary Education Attainment
8
1.6
Summary of Socio-Economic Conditions
9
2.
Village Health Check
11
2.1
Introduction
11
2.2
Business Base
11
2.3
Access to Services
13
2.4
Crime
14
2.5
Health Check Overview
15
1. Economic Baseline 1.1 Introduction This report examines the trends and performance of Lesmahagow and surrounding area (defined below) in comparison to the local authority area (South Lanarkshire), and national level (Scotland). The review covers the socio-economic conditions and highlights any constraints Lesmahagow may face. This review presents an update to socio-economic baseline prepared by EKOS for Lesmahagow in 2005. It should be noted, however, that since 2005 a number of 1
data sources have been amended/discontinued/replaced , and we are therefore unable to present a direct comparison. This report focuses on the period from 2008 onward. It is also important to highlight that the definition of Lesmahagow varies for different data sources; we have chosen to use the Census Area Statistics (CAS) Ward2, as outlined below. Reference is made in this report to the previous Baseline Review of Lesmahagow Village Centre, completed in 2005, providing direct comparison as appropriate.
1.2 Demographics The section focuses on the demographics of Lesmahagow, Figure 1.1 over, outlines the CAS Ward area encompassing Lesmahagow and surrounding areas (AuldtounWest Toun, Birkwood-Dalquandy, Coalburn, Douglas Central, Douglas North, Turfholm )
1 The Annual Business Inquiry (ABI) data source was discontinued in 2008 (pre recession) and was supplemented by the Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES) from 2008 2 “Wards are the key building block of UK administrative geography, being the spatial units used to elect local government councillors. Census Area Statistics (CAS) wards are those originally used for 2001 Census outputs and now used with other data such as claimant count statistics. Their definition differs according to country” – NOMIS
Baseline Review of Lesmahagow Village Centre: South Lanarkshire Council 1
Figure 1.1: Map of Lesmahagow, CAS Ward
Source: NOMIS
The most recent population data is available for 20093 from the local authority and identifies Lesmahagow and surrounding area as having a population of 8,224, representing 2.6% of South Lanarkshireâ€&#x;s total population. The working age population of Lesmahagow accounts for 61.8% of the total population; this is lower than the South Lanarkshire average level of 65.1%. Conversely the retirement age population is marginally greater in Lesmahagow than local authority level, with one in five residents aged 65 or over, detailed over in Table 1.1.
3 South Lanarkshire Council Neighbourhood Information Profiles and Tracking Univariate Change (SLC Nip & Tuc). It should be highlighted the data source is no longer available online as South Lanarkshire has developed a new website: http://www.southlanarkshire.gov.uk/improve/info/25/area_profiles
Baseline Review of Lesmahagow Village Centre: South Lanarkshire Council 2
Table 1.1: Population Age Structure, 2009 Lesmahagow
South Lanarkshire
No.
%
No.
%
1,474
17.9
56,593
18.1
15-24
939
11.4
34,859
11.2
25-64
4,146
50.4
168,203
53.9
65-74
781
9.5
28,574
9.2
75 +
884
10.7
23,651
7.6
0-14
Total Population
8,224
100
311,880
100.0
Total Working Age Population
5,085
61.8
203,062
65.1
Source: SLC Nip & Tuc/General Register of Scotland (GROS)
The percentage of people of retirement age in Lesmahagow has increased from 4
15% in 2001 to 21% in 2009; this data coincides with the aging population of Scotland. This is a positive increase for Lesmahagow businesses as this age group are present in the village during business hours.
1.3 Labour Market The following section focuses on work based employment levels and trends over the period of two years, 2008 to 2010 using the most up to date BRES data. As outlined at the start of this report a direct comparison cannot be made with data pre 2008 due to changes in official data sources. Table 1.2 illustrates the employment base within Lesmahagow, and presents comparison against local and national levels. Table 1.2: Workplace Based Employment Change, 2008-2010 Lesmahagow 2010
% Change from 2008
Full Time Workers
883
Part Time Workers Total
South Lanarkshire
Scotland
2010
% Change from 2008
2010
% Change from 2008
34.2%
71,928
-16.4%
1,555,667
-6.7%
366
1.1%
37,961
-1.9%
755,398
-5.0%
1,249
22%
109,889
-11.9%
2,311,065
-6.2%
Source: BRES
The employment base within Lesmahagow has experienced a 22% (229) increase over the period of two years; this is in contrast to the 12% and 6% decrease experienced by South Lanarkshire and Scotland (respectively). 4
Baseline Review of Lesmahagow Village Centre (2005)
Baseline Review of Lesmahagow Village Centre: South Lanarkshire Council 3
The data shows that Lesmahagow has a higher proportion of full-time employment (71%) than either the South Lanarkshire or Scottish averages (65% and 67% respectively). Of particular interest, the number of people employed on a full time basis has increase by over one third in Lesmahagow (225). Table 1.3 provides a more detailed examination of workplace based employment by industry. Table 1.3: Workplace Based Employment by Industry 2008-2010 Lesmahagow
Agriculture, forestry and fishing Water and energy Manufacturing
South Lanarkshire
Scotland
2008
2010
% Change
2008
2010
% Change
2008
2010
% Change
*
*
100
234
99
-57.7
36,320
36,933
1.7
18
193
972
2,622
5,332
103.4
58,207
64,225
10.3
78
73
-6.4
16,081
11,520
-28.4
201,112
172,656
-14.1
Construction
144
142
-1.4
12,634
7,795
-38.3
154,849
121,438
-21.6
Distribution, hotels and restaurants
272
203
-25.4
27,715
25,478
-8.1
545,205
513,091
-5.9
99
109
10.1
7,879
6,138
-22.1
161,655
154,236
-4.6
Banking, finance and insurance, etc
183
127
-30.6
19,935
18,142
-9.0
452,444
416,736
-7.9
Public administration, education and health
164
348
112.2
31,642
31,287
-1.1
739,146
730,394
-1.2
Other
61
51
-16.4
6,040
4,097
-32.2
113,877
101,355
-11.0
Total
1021
1250
22.4
124,782
109,888
-11.9
2,462,815
2,311,064
-6.2
Transport and Communications
Source: BRES, * number cannot be disclosed for confidentiality reasons as it is less than 5
The primary employment sector for the village centre is “distribution, hotels and restaurant” which incorporates retail. In 2008 this was a larger sector in Lesmahagow accounting for over one quarter of all jobs, but from 2008-2010 declined by 25% (69 jobs) falling into second place accounting for 16% of all jobs. Other key changes include:
972% increase in those employed within the water and energy sector; this is substantially greater than increases within South Lanarkshire (103.4%) and Scotland (10.3%) but represents a low absolute uplift in numbers from a small base;
112% increase in employment within the public administration, education and health sector (164 to 348); and
Baseline Review of Lesmahagow Village Centre: South Lanarkshire Council 4

31% decrease within the banking, finance and insurance sector; the local and national levels also experienced a decline in employment levels (9% and 7.9% respectively).
Figure 1.2 presents a comparison across the three geographies of the workplace based employment in 2010, and shows the relative importance of key industry sectors. Figure 1.2: 2010 Workplace Based Employment
Lesmahagow
South Lanarkshire
Scotland
35%
30% 25%
20% 15%
10% 5% 0%
Source: BRES
Lesmahagow has relative strengths in the following sectors: Water & Energy, Construction, and Transport & Communications; but is under-represented in: Manufacturing/Distribution, Hotels & Restaurants (encompassing retail)/ and Banking, Finance & Insurance. Economic activity identifies the number of people who are in work, or are actively seeking work. Table 1.4 illustrates the activity level within South Lanarkshire and Scotland; information is unavailable for Lesmahagow.
Baseline Review of Lesmahagow Village Centre: South Lanarkshire Council 5
Table 1.4: Economic Activity Levels (2010) South Lanarkshire
Scotland
Working age population
203,100
3,398,200
Economically active
155,500
2,617,000
77%
77%
% of working population
Source: Annual Population Survey/Labour Force Survey
The data shows that at the South Lanarkshire level just over three quarters of the working age population are economically active. If we assume that Lesmahagow conforms to this pattern, analysis of the villageâ€&#x;s working age population would give an economically active population of around 4,000 people. The level of gross weekly earnings for those employed within South Lanarkshire has 5
risen by 3.5% over the period of two years (2008-2010) , making average earning in line with the national average of ÂŁ462 per week.
1.4 Unemployment Rate The following section highlights residence based unemployment levels6 and trends by analysis of the claimant count7 data over the period of 2006 to 2011. Table 1.5 presents the unemployment level and rate for Lesmahagow, South Lanarkshire and Scotland. Table 1.5: Unemployment Level and Rate (Claimant Count)
2006
2011
Absolute Change
% Change
Unemployment Rate
72
153
81
113%
5.2%
South Lanarkshire
4,456
8,976
4,520
101%
4.4%
Scotland
82,816
139,134
56,318
68%
4.1%
Lesmahagow
Source: Claimant Count
The total number of people claiming benefits has increased significantly across all three geographies, with an increase of 81 claimants in Lesmahagow in the five year period. Analysis of this data shows that the greatest change is a significant uplift in
5 Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings 2008-2010 6 Unemployment (or joblessness), as defined by the International Labour Organization, occurs when people are without jobs and they have actively sought work within the past four weeks. The unemployment rate is a measure of the prevalence of unemployment and it is calculated as a percentage by dividing the number of unemployed individuals by all individuals currently in the labour force; Wikipedia. 7 The claimant count measures the number of people claiming Job Seekers Allowance (JSA) unemployment benefit
Baseline Review of Lesmahagow Village Centre: South Lanarkshire Council 6
female claimants (from 10 to 50). The unemployment rate within Lesmahagow is higher than the local authority and national levels. Table 1.6 presents claimants data based upon age, from 2006 to 2011. Table 1.6: Claimant Count Age Structure 2006 – 2011 Lesmahagow
South Lanarkshire
Scotland
2011 Total
Absolute Change
% Change
2011 Total
Absolute Change
% Change
2011 Total
Absolute Change
% Change
Youth (16-24)
40
10
33
2,830
1390
96.5
40,960
15,985
64
Other ( 25 +)
105
65
186
8,275
5260
174.5
97,800
40,350
70.2
Total
145
75
115
11,105
6650
149.3
138,760
56,335
68.3
Source: Claimant Count Data is rounded to the nearest five when extracted from NOMIS
Key changes in Lesmahagow‟s unemployment claimant count:
115% increase in the total number of claimants from 2006 to 2011;
the number of female claimants from 2006 to 2011 increase by 40; and
the number of youth claimants increased by one third from 2006 to 2011, however, the percentage change is lower than the local authority and national increases (96% and 64% respectively).
Table 1.7 details „long term‟ claimants made between 2004 and 2010 extracted from the Claimant Count data. Long term is defined as a claim lasting for a period of one year or more. Overall the number of long term claimants has increased across all three areas with just under one in five of Lesmahagow‟s claimants being defined as long term, this is marginally higher than the national (15%) and local areas (12%). Table 1.7: Long-term Claimants: 2004-2010
Number Lesmahagow
Absolute Change
% Point Change
25
15
0.5
South Lanarkshire
1,430
855
0.4
Scotland
20,415
7,455
0.2
Source: Claimant Count
Baseline Review of Lesmahagow Village Centre: South Lanarkshire Council 7
1.5 Secondary Education Attainment This section analyses the educational attainment of secondary school pupils attending Lesmahagow high school and compares the village averages to those within South Lanarkshire and Scotland. In the academic year of 2008/2009, 107 fourth year pupils attended Lesmahagow High School, Figure 1.3, below, details the exam results of these students th
th
th
th
throughout their 4 , 5 and 6 year of study gaining 5 or more credit (4 year) and higher (5th and 6th year) results, in comparison to the local and national averages. Figure 1.3: Exam Results
40% 35%
35%
34%
32%
30% 23%
25%
20%
4th Year
17%
5th Year
15% 10%
23%
11%
12%
South Lanarkshire
Scotland
6th Year
6%
5% 0% Lesmahagow High School
Source: Scottish Schools Online th
Lesmahagow high schoolâ€&#x;s performance is typical for 4 year SQA credit level examination results at the South Lanarkshire and Scotland levels, but examination results for both 5th and 6th years are substantially below local and national levels. Figure 1.4 illustrates leaversâ€&#x; destination of school pupils for 2010/2011 across Lesmahagow, South Lanarkshire and Scotland.
Baseline Review of Lesmahagow Village Centre: South Lanarkshire Council 8
Figure 1.4: Leavers Destination 120% 100%
17% 80% 24% 60% 40% 20%
7%
11%
10%
19%
20%
7%
6%
24%
27%
Unemployed, seeking employment Employment
22%
29%
Unemployed, not seeking employment
Training 37%
36%
South Lanarkshire
Scotland
Further education
0% Lesmahagow High School
Higher education
Lesmahagow=108, South Lanarkshire=3,559, Scotland=54,073 Source: Scottish Schools Online
Around two thirds of school leavers at the South Lanarkshire and Scottish levels go on to higher and further education (61% and 63% respectively), compared with just over half of pupils from Lesmahagow (51%). In comparison a higher proportion of school leavers in Lesmahagow chose to go straight into employment (24%), 5% points higher than the comparable levels in South Lanarkshire (19%) and 4% higher than the national level (20%). It must also be highlighted that just under one fifth of Lesmahagow School leavers are reported to be unemployed and in search of employment (17%). This is higher than South Lanarkshire and Scottish levels (11% and 10% respectively).
1.6 Summary of Socio-Economic Conditions Current socio-economic conditions within the village of Lesmahagow are summarised as follows: 
the population of Lesmahagow has risen by 1.7% in recent years to 8,224 with the working age population accounting for 62% of residents;
Baseline Review of Lesmahagow Village Centre: South Lanarkshire Council 9
from 2008-2010 the total workplace based employment has increased by 229 (22%) with the majority of the increase being full time workers (225);
key sectoral employment based changes have occurred between 20082010, most noticeably an absolute change in the water & energy sector from 18 to 193 employees and public, administration and health, 164 to 348 employees;
the number of people classed as unemployed between 2006 and 2010 increase by around115%, with around three in ten claimants being made by a young person e.g. 16-24 years old;
just under 20% of people claiming benefits have been doing so for 12 months or more;
fifth and sixth year exam results fall below local and national levels; and
a higher proportion of high school leavers go straight into employment rather than further/higher education than local and national averages.
Baseline Review of Lesmahagow Village Centre: South Lanarkshire Council 10
2. Village Health Check 2.1 Introduction This chapter focuses on the economic factors relevant to the strength and maintenance of Lesmahagow village centre and includes an analysis of the business base, services available and crime levels.
2.2 Business Base The most up to date ABI data is 2008, as the method for analysing businesses changed to BRES. Table 2.1 details the business base from 2007-2008, it should be noted that the most up-to-date data is now four year out of date. Table 2.1: Business Base, 2003- 2008
2008
Lesmahagow Absolute % Change Change
South Lanarkshire Absolute % 2008 Change Change
2008
Scotland Absolute Change
% Change
1-10
155
-46
-23
7705
913
13.4
147786
15093
11.4
11-49
22
-13
-37
1311
21
1.6
26094
-910
-3.4
50-199 200 or more
*
-10
-91
316
24
8.2
6143
89
1.5
0
0
0
74
17
29.8
1447
111
8.3
181470
14383
8.6
Total 178 -69 -28 9406 975 11.6 * less than 5, for confidentiality reasons the number cannot be disclosed Source: ABI
Over all there has been a decrease in the number of businesses based in Lesmahagow, reducing by around 70 businesses. Of particular note, the local and national business base both increased over the period of 2003-2008. Just fewer than 90% of businesses located in Lesmahagow employ between one and ten people. It is important to note the number of businesses employing 11-49 employees has decreased by a total 13 businesses. There are no businesses operating within the village employing 200 or more members of staff.
Baseline Review of Lesmahagow Village Centre: South Lanarkshire Council 11
Table 2.2 examines, in greater depth, the change in business base by industry sectors from 2003-20088. Lesmahagow‟s business based is spread across a number of sectors including:
21% within distribution, hotel and restaurants;
21% within construction; and
18% within banking, finance and insurance.
Lesmahagow has experienced a decline in its business base across six sectors between 2003 and 2008, with only minimal uplift in the other two sectors. At the South Lanarkshire level, the business base has declined across five sectors, with some major growth reported in other industry sectors. The greatest absolute change within Lesmahagow has been a decline of 37 businesses within the distribution, hotel and restaurant sector, which includes retail. There are no restaurants within the village. Table 2.2: Business Base by Sector 2003-2008
Lesmahagow
South Lanarkshire
2003
2008
Absolute Change
% Change
2003
2008
Absolute Change
% Change
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
*
*
-3
-75
54
61
7
13
Mining, quarrying & utilities
7
*
*
-71
36
92
56
156
Manufacturing
15
16
1
7
634
616
-18
-3
Construction
33
37
4
12
805
1,195
390
48
Distribution, hotels &restaurants
75
38
-37
-49
2,913
297
-2,616
-90
Transport & communications
27
26
-1
-4
467
403
-64
-14
Banking, finance & insurance etc
40
33
-7
-18
1,927
185
-1,742
-90
Public administration, education, health & other
46
25
-21
-46
1,595
299
-1,296
-81
Total
247
178
-69
-28
8,431
9,406
975
12
* less than 5, for confidentiality reasons the number cannot be disclosed Source: ABI Workplace Analysis
8 2008 is the most current data regarding business base, it must be noted that the data is 4 years out of date
Baseline Review of Lesmahagow Village Centre: South Lanarkshire Council 12
2.3 Access to Services As expected within a more rural locations, Lesmahagow is positioned within the bottom third of the access domain for access to services, scoring around 2,200 out of a possible 6,000 (the closer to 6000 the better access there is)9. Lesmahagow is, however, a self contained village with many services and good road infrastructure, linking it to the M74 with access north and south to major centres. Residents in Lesmahagow have access to:
retail services: o
convenience stores
o
Post Office
o
chemist
o
petrol station
o
supermarket;
public services: o
police station
o
library
o
SLC Resource Centre;
education services: o
nursery
o
primary school
o
secondary school;
health services: o
GP
o
dentist
o
Co-op Funeral Care; and
9 SIMD
Baseline Review of Lesmahagow Village Centre: South Lanarkshire Council 13
financial services: o
building Society/bank
o
cash point.
All of these services are within a short commute; drive time in general takes five minutes or less and access via public transport takes around 15 minutes. The Lesmahagow Comparator Centre report analyses in greater depth how Lesmahagow compares to eight villages/towns in the local area.
2.4 Crime This section analyses the number of crimes committed between 2009 and 2010 using data provided by South Lanarkshire Council Nip & Tuc10. Table 2.3 details six categories used to best describe crime, and detail incidents that have taken place in Lesmahagow and at the rate per 1,000, allowing for a direct comparison between Lesmahagow and South Lanarkshire. The term “crime” denotes the most serious of criminal acts, with the less serious acts termed “offense”. Table 2.3 Level of Crime: 2009-2010
Number
% of all crimes & offences
Rate per 1000 pop
SLC Rate per 1000 pop
Crimes of Violence
13
1.5%
2
3
House Breaking
24
2.7%
3
4
Health & Well Being linked crimes & offences
71
8.%
9
12
Vehicle Crime
31
3.5%
4
5
Motoring Offences
243
27.4%
30
29
Anti-Social Behaviour crimes & offences
574
64.7%
70
80
All Crimes and Offences
887
100%
108
121
SLC Nip & Tuc
Overall Lesmahagow has a lower level of crimes and offences in comparison to South Lanarkshire across all indicators with the exception of motoring offences. Around two thirds of all crimes reported between 2009 and 2010 were anti social behaviour crimes and offences (574); this is similar to crime reported in South Lanarkshire. 10 Note: Due to crimes/offences appearing in more than one category columns may not sum to total
Baseline Review of Lesmahagow Village Centre: South Lanarkshire Council 14
2.5 Health Check Overview In summary the health check has defined:
business base changes have resulted in a loss of nearly 70 business in Lesmahagow;
the highest concentration of businesses is within the distribution, hotels and restaurants sector (encompassing retail) followed closely by construction, it should be noted that since 2008 the only restaurant in the village has closed;
residents of Lesmahagow have favourable access to a range of public, financial, retail, education services all within a five minute drive or fifteen minute commute via public transport; and
the number of crimes, at a rate per 1,000 population, are generally in line with the local authority average with antisocial behaviour accounting for two thirds of all offences.
Baseline Review of Lesmahagow Village Centre: South Lanarkshire Council 15