Public Sector IPANZ - December 2015

Volume 38:4 Publisher The Institute of Public Administration New Zealand PO Box 5032, Wellington, New Zealand Phone: +64 4 463 6940 Fax: +64 4 463 6939 Email: admin@ipanz.org.nz Website: www.ipanz.org.nz ISSN 0110-5191 (Print) ISSN 1176-9831 (Online) The whole of the literary matter of Public Sector is copyright. Please contact the editor if you are interested in reproducing any Public Sector content.

Joined-up care

Learn, create, share

12

16

A Tale of Two Cities

Dealing with disparity

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22

editor John O’Leary: johntoleary@paradise.net.nz contributors Carl Billington Briar Edmonds Colin James John Larkindale Gabriel Makhlouf Diane Maxwell Margaret McLachlan Liz MacPherson Rose Northcott John O’Leary journal Advisory Group Annie De’ath John Larkindale Karl Lofgren Len Cook Lewis Rowland Margaret McLachlan Ross Tanner Advertising Phone: +64 4 463 6940 Fax: +64 4 463 6939 Email: comms@ipanz.org.nz contributions Public Sector welcomes contributions to each issue from readers.

Themes for 2016 issues are: April: education July: Auckland September: the future public service December: beyond the rhetoric of customer focus.

Please contact the editor for more information.

Subscriptions IPANZ welcomes both corporate and individual membership and journal subscriptions. Please email admin@ipanz. org.nz, phone +64 4 463 6940 or visit www.ipanz.org.nz to register online.

Disclaimer Opinions expressed in Public Sector are those of various authors and do not necessarily represent those of the editor, the journal advisory group or IPANZ. Every effort is made to provide accurate and factual content. The publishers and editorial staff, however, cannot accept responsibility for any inadvertent errors or omissions that may occur.

December 2015

Contents President’s message by John Larkindale....................................................................2 IPANZ news: Diversity and its challenges: views from the 2015 Public Sector Conference...................................................................................3 Obituary .........................................................................................................................4 Editorial by Gabriel Makhlouf, Secretary to the New Zealand Treasury ..................5 Cover story A Changing Face: the implications of demographic change..............................6–11 Valuing the vote...........................................................................................................10 Focus Health: Joined-up care............................................................................. 12–13 Q&A: Unleashing the power of data: A conversation with Liz MacPherson................................................................. 14–15 Focus Education: Learn, create, share...............................................................16–17 A Tale of Two Cities: Auckland............................................................................................................... 18–19 Invercargill............................................................................................................ 20–21 Dealing with disparity.......................................................................................... 22–23 Point of view by Diane Maxwell, Retirement Commissioner...................................24 Front cover: © Scusi | Dreamstime.com Public Sector is printed on environmentally responsible paper produced using ECF, third-party certified pulp from responsible sources and manufactured under the ISO14001 Environmental Management System.

December 2015 Public Sector 1

PRESIDENT’S MESSAGE

He Tangata, He Tangata, He Tangata

By IPANZ President John Larkindale

N

ew Zealand was the last significant land mass on the planet other than Antarctica to be inhabited by humans. In less than a thousand years mankind has caused major, irrevocable change in these islands that we call home. Most of us are aware of the consequences that human settlement has had on our native fauna and flora, and in a myriad of ways from one end of New Zealand to the other many people are striving to minimise future impacts.

But most of us give much less thought as to how our changing demographics will impact on our society and economy. Two decades ago, official forecasts suggested that New Zealand’s population would never reach five million; it would peak and start falling away before then as our population aged. As it turns out, however, with net immigration now reaching record highs of 60,000 annually and with the natural increase in the population of around 26,000 per annum, we are likely to reach that number by around 2020. While it is always dangerous to make predictions (especially about the future!), it is likely that New Zealand will continue to be an attractive destination in an increasingly turbulent world.

New Zealand has to date been relatively successful in coping with the massive changes brought about not only by a doubling of population in the last half century but also with significant differences in the social and ethnic composition of those who live here. Today a new set of challenges is emerging and we need to think about these if we are to be successful in managing our society in the years ahead.

We need to think about Auckland. It is indubitably the case that cities are today the major generators of innovation, employment and wealth creation. And “international”

cities are more successful in this regard than others. Thus it makes sense for New Zealand to foster Auckland’s growth and development.

It makes sense, too, for Auckland to strive to become the world’s most liveable city. But this also means that careful thought has to be given to the way in which Auckland grows.

I’ve said before in this column that I believe that Auckland has to grow largely within its current boundaries, maximising the use of existing infrastructure and drawing on the fact that denser populations can support better public transport systems and have less impact on the overall environment. We need to be careful that in encouraging Auckland’s growth we don’t destroy the very attributes that make Auckland an attractive place to live.

Conversely, we need also to think about populations outside Auckland. Most projections suggest that only Hamilton, Tauranga, Wellington and Christchurch are likely to see increased populations over the next couple of decades. And the growth rate here will likely be significantly lower than in Auckland.

Moreover, the populations of nearly everywhere else are likely to be not only reducing, but also ageing. What are the implications of a static or reducing rating base for regions faced not only with maintaining services but also having to replace existing infrastructural assets as they become obsolete? What will be the social and political implications for these regions if employment and career prospects for their children become fewer?

We need to think, therefore, about how to encourage more economic opportunities in the regions. In many cases, lifestyle opportunities are already of a very high quality, and certainly the cost of living – of housing in particular

– is much less than in Auckland. While the clustering of enterprises and service providers is important if we are to achieve the scale required for international trade and economic success, in today’s electronic and information age is it still necessary for these all to be physically located in close proximity?

As the composition of our migrant communities changes we need to think about how to ensure that new arrivals not only settle in with appropriate employment and support, but also about how they can be encouraged to understand, to participate in and contribute to the political process of their new homeland.

While the retention of their culture benefits both themselves and their families, it also adds to the vibrancy and the diversity of New Zealand. But it is also critical that they quickly become connected to the fundamental political and social values of New Zealand. As we have seen overseas, social and cultural separation can bring alienation and the problems that alienation engenders.

These are issues that New Zealanders need to be thinking about. Government and the public sector more generally have a critical role in highlighting the challenges that lie ahead and encouraging citizens to engage in a dialogue about what kind of New Zealand we want to see in 2030 or 2050. There are no easy and quick answers to the profound questions that lie ahead; indeed, much of the demographic path to 2030 is already pretty much fixed in place. But it is essential that collectively we get it right. I hope that the material in this issue of Public Sector will illuminate some of the issues and contribute to the national discussion that we need to have.

It really is all about the people.

DominionPost. Fletcher, David 1952- :"The Prime Minister wants to see your solution to growing numbers of super annuitants." ... 12 May 2011. Fletcher, David, 1952- :[Digital cartoons published from 2001 onward]. Ref: DCDL-0017808. Alexander Turnbull Library, Wellington, New Zealand. http://natlib.govt.nz/records/22312451

2 Public Sector December 2015

ipa nz news

Top of the Class

Diversity and its challenges: views from

the 2015 Public Sector Conference

Margaret McLachlan canvasses some of the viewpoints of the speakers at the Public Sector Conference held in Wellington in September.

“

Parliament usually only has one lens operating, and it’s not a Māori lens,” former MP Dame Tariana Turia (top left) told an audience of senior public servants at the Public Sector Conference.

“I have a great deal of respect for public servants, but you’re trying to fit your thinking into the policy space. I’ve moved away from thinking the public service has the answers for us; we have to take back the responsibility and control in our whānau and hapū and start determining what’s important for us,” Dame Tariana said.

“That’s what Whānau Ora is about… not to shut others out but in making decisions we make them as we have to live with them.”

In response to a question about the growth of multicultural New Zealand, Dame Tariana said it was important for immigrants to hold on to their own cultures but that Māori had a unique place in New Zealand society.

“It’s important to have respect for other cultures and people. In the opportunities I’ve had to work with diverse groups I’ve found that if you have respect for others, over time you will start to come together.

“Government agencies have tended to focus on what’s wrong and not what’s right. If we look at what’s good, that will be of greater benefit.”

Other speakers at the conference also considered the issue of increasing ethnic diversity and other demographic changes affecting the way New Zealand is governed.

Roger Blakeley, former Chief Planning Officer of Auckland Council, (top centre) said Auckland was a ‘superdiverse city’ comprising 40 percent ethnic migrants (25 percent is the international benchmark). He said this brought a number of benefits, including skills, innovation and cultural vibrancy. Auckland Council already has

a settlement strategy. To be a successful ‘superdiverse city’ will require Auckland to be super-advanced in migrant welcoming and integration.

“Natural increase is a major contributor; we expect to have an extra 1 million people living in Auckland in 30 years’ time,” Blakeley said. “How people think about issues is very important, as is managing the politics.”

Blakeley gave the example of a council deliberation, as part of the Auckland Unitary Plan, on a proposal to intensify housing in suburban areas, which was met by fierce opposition from the residents. The next stage involves hearing of submissions by an independent hearing panel, which will not be subject to the same political pressures and which will be using mediation with all parties involved to seek agreed solutions.

Malcolm Alexander, Chief Executive of Local Government New Zealand (top right), said demographic change was having a large impact on governance and the ability of councils to pay for infrastructure. An ageing population meant more people on fixed incomes and less ability to pay increased rates.

“The diversity of New Zealand communities raises different challenges.

While population decline is inevitable in some regions, there is the challenge of population growth north of Taupo.”

LGNZ has a 10-point plan for local government funding. It is looking for councils to have access to a wider range of funding tools and mechanisms to help communities alleviate the funding burden on ratepayers and incentivise alternative approaches to managing and promoting growth. These tools will complement existing funding tools and their use predicated on not increasing the overall tax burden on the country.

View the conference presentations at: www.thepublicsectorconference.org.nz

This year, two students received the IPANZ Public Administration Prize for ‘Top of the Class’ in the Victoria University School of Government’s Public Management level 3 paper 2014.

Nicola Boyce-Bacon (top right) took the paper as part of her five-year law and commerce degree. “I enjoyed public policy; it was very different from private law which I studied.

You learn to think critically and practically, for example, looking at the implications of Better Public Services goals.”

Nicola will be joining the Duncan Cotterill law firm graduate programme next year, after doing an Institute of Professional Legal Studies course over the summer.

The other winner, Lily Li (bottom right), has gone on to study a Masters’ in Public Policy this year, as part of a new under-graduate pathway programme, after completing a BA and a BSc. “I’m working part-time as a policy advisor at MBIE so that supports my research. I’m looking into government intervention in enterprises and business and what’s most effective for growth.”

IPANZ sponsors the Public Administration Prize and has awarded each student $750, to show its support for the next generation studying governance and public policy.

Contributions please Public Sector journal is always happy to receive contributions from readers.

If you’re working on an interesting project in the public sector or have something relevant to say about a particular issue, think about sending us a short article on the subject. While we will always look at well written pieces on any public sector subject, it would help if your article touched on or related to one of the journal’s quarterly themes.

Themes for 2016 issues are: April: education July: Auckland September: the future public service December: beyond the rhetoric of customer service Contact the editor John O’Leary at johntoleary@paradise.net.nz

December 2015 Public Sector 3

o b it u a r y

A hard worker who made a difference to people’s lives Donald Stephen Gray (1959–2015)

W

hether he was on the telephone to his niece lending life guidance or in a meeting advising a minister on national policy, Don Gray was always honest and thoughtful.

Gray was a dedicated public servant, policy analyst and inspirational leader whose work helped shape New Zealand today.

Former Prime Minister Dame Jenny Shipley said Gray was a consummate public servant with the confidence to transform the lives of people with disabilities throughout the country.

“These were complex times and he had the discipline to turn policy into organisational design,” Shipley said.

Gray was unafraid to challenge what was, up until that point, a norm of society, she said. “Don would always think further, explore further and in the end, we were able to find ways to get other public service teams on board.

“He genuinely gave his career to serve the public.”

Though Gray was not

4 Public Sector December 2015

there simply to serve the ministers he worked with, Shipley remembered his unwavering professionalism and reliability. “I think he always had a tie in his pocket just in case he had to go see the minister.”

His passion and commitment to the public service sector came as no surprise to his twin sister, Cathy Mabey, who said Gray gave everything his all.

“He was always a really diligent, hard-working person right from childhood. He was quite serious about his schoolwork and remembered everything he learnt,” she said.

After graduating from Victoria University of Wellington with a Bachelor of Arts (Honours) in geography and history in 1982, the Masterton native worked his way into social development as quickly as possible.

“Intrinsically, he always wanted to serve people and apply the knowledge that he had. He was always interested in people and what happens for them and the way things develop, but he would never have touted that,” she said.

Though he was a humble man, her brother Gray was always proud of the team he worked with.

“He appreciated all the support, help and hard work of those people he worked with and led.”

In the early 2000s,

Gray was appointed to a social policy position with the Organisation for Economic Co- Operation and Development (OECD), which gave the keen traveller a chance to work in Paris.

“I think that he got some challenges with OECD and that he felt pretty satisfied that he was able to make an impact there,” Mabey said.

In 2004, he began an eight-year stint as deputy chief executive in the Ministry of Social Development in Wellington, close to his cherished family.

“He was a really great uncle and if the kids ever needed to get a second opinion or talk to anybody, they would sometimes talk to Don and he would be really a good, objective sounding board.”

Former health minister Tony Ryall remembered Gray as a leader with incredible tact. “He had this very good way of, at the end of a meeting, when people were leaving the room, sidling up to you to have a moment in which he would proceed to very nicely tell you that you were wrong, in the most disarming, positive way,” he said with a laugh.

“He was a top-shelf public servant. He was wise, thoughtful and tactful and had been heavily involved in most of the major social policy reforms of the last 25 years.”

Gray transitioned from social development to the Ministry of Health in 2012 to take on the role of deputy director-general of policy, which he held until his death.

“He was one of the first public servants in the last decade that was truly a crosssectoral leader in social development and then as a policy leader in the health field,” Ryall said.

“It was just an incredible skillset as the public services have been driving to be more cross-sectoral.”

Not only was Gray able to serve in a variety of sectors, but his career soared under both National and Labour governments.

Health Minister Jonathan Coleman said Gray was a talented individual, well-liked by ministers and held in high esteem across Wellington.

“Don epitomised public service and served both National and Labour governments with professional, perceptive and well-considered policy advice,” Coleman said.

Long-term friend Deb Boland-Vernon said it was clear Gray was passionate about making a difference for people in this country.

“I believe that every person that came into contact with him is better for it,” she said.

This obituary appeared in the DominionPost on 17 October 2015.

g u est edito r i a l

Looking to the Future

D

By Gabriel Makhlouf, Secretary to the New Zealand Treasury

iversity strengthens organisations and strengthens countries. New Zealand now embraces a broader range of cultures than ever before and has an increasingly large aged population, one characterised by vitality and extended working lives. These major demographic changes have transformed the face of New Zealand. They also give us what I believe can be called a diversity advantage.

We in the public sector need to understand and address what these changes mean for the country’s future. For instance, a changing labour force (in skills, cultural identity, age) confronts us all with questions about educational demands, skill requirements, changing career options and long-term fiscal impacts. Answering these questions demands informed thinking, fresh insights and solid, evidence-based analysis.

For the Treasury, this means working as flexibly and creatively as possible to maximise the effectiveness and speed with which we can respond to the needs of both the Government and New Zealand’s citizens.

One development, for instance, demands we embrace multiple points of view and extend our international awareness. For the first time in the country’s history, we are living in the fastest growing region in the world. Deepening our integration with, and understanding of, the cultures and customs of the Asia-Pacific region will give us some powerful levers for future economic growth.

Within the Treasury we actively encourage diversity of thought, embracing staff from a wide variety of backgrounds and hiring with a view to fully reflecting the diversity of New Zealand and the region of which we are a part. Our hiring practices at the Treasury aim to encourage the development of a broadthinking and diverse future generation of public sector professionals while retaining our traditional core analytical strengths.

We’ve developed human resource channels for drawing promising talent toward the Treasury and giving them opportunities across the full breadth of the work we do.

We welcome bright and energised staff from backgrounds in philosophy, history, music, mathematics, classics and more, including the traditional areas of finance and economics. Our interns and graduate analysts come from many and varied work and educational backgrounds with a range of life skills and experiences to match. Some are young and energetic; others not so young, but no less energetic for that.

The pursuit of diversity is not the Treasury merely paying lip service to inclusion, as if a multiplicity of voices is a benefit in and of itself. Rather, it allows us to keep our advice and information as flexible, fast-moving and wide-ranging as it needs to be. Different voices, perspectives and backgrounds enable us to move the conversation forward, to advance economic measures aimed at new goals and achievements. It lends us new vocabulary, and with that the ability to re-name, re-conceptualise, re-assess and ultimately resolve many of the challenges our economy faces.

As part of a briefing to the Minister of Finance following last year’s election, the Treasury produced a document called Holding On and Letting Go, in which we outlined our views with respect to economic performance over the medium term and explored issues that matter for the living standards of New Zealanders. Importantly, this document reflects our commitment to three interdependent goals for economic success: prosperity, sustainability and inclusiveness, all of which are fundamental to our Living Standards Framework.

Increasingly, we are tackling these goals through the more effective use of data and analytics and by adopting a customer-centric approach to the shaping of our advice (which remains rooted in strong economic analysis).

Collaboration and challenge are some of our core values and underpin how we do business. The multiple perspectives offered by our public sector colleagues, for instance, are of immense value to us. We want to work with them for their expertise and because

New Zealand now embraces a broader range of cultures than ever before and has an increasingly large aged population, one characterised by vitality and extended working lives. we recognise the crucial importance of their respective roles across the social and economic landscape. We know we work most effectively if we talk and listen across differences as we work toward common goals.

The importance of being connected with stakeholders – whether businesses, community groups, think tanks, or public service agencies – cannot be overestimated. As more data about the changing demographic face of New Zealand is gathered and analysed (and we grasp the opportunity of responding to it), we at the Treasury have found we can do our job so much better if we operate with the most complete possible picture of the nation’s people and their activities. That’s why my senior team and I regularly spend time out of Wellington to learn first hand the challenges and opportunities they face.

The Treasury is 175 years old this year and our past is important to us. It shapes our capacity to generate solutions, and influences the perspective we bring to our analysis. But any organisation that is in the business we are in strengthens itself by bringing differing perspectives to its work. As the world changes it is the new and not the old that matters. We must look to the future rather than reflect on the past. We must learn from history, not be shackled by it.

Diversity is the foundation that keeps our work sharp and responsive to New Zealand’s demographic changes and enables us to draw on the advantages those changes offer our economy. Diversity of thought, of argument, of voices, is the path to modernising policy making. It’s an essential part of our contribution to a prosperous, sustainable economy that benefits all.

December 2015 Public Sector 5

What will we look like as a nation when we look in the collective mirror over the next 10, 20 or 30 years? And what might this mean for the public sector as it strives to serve the changing needs of changing communities in a changing environment? CARL BILLINGTON finds out.

A

ccording to Statistics New Zealand, our total population is expected to reach five million during 2023.

By 2038, over 50 percent of New Zealand’s population will identify as being of either Māori, Asian or Pacific descent. For those living in Auckland, this is already the case.

All ethnicities except New Zealand Europeans show expected increases in their proportionate representation between now and 2038. Māori move from 15.5 percent in 2013 to 19.5 percent in 2038; those identifying as Pacific increase from 7.7 percent to 10.9 percent. The greatest growth, however, is in the Asian population, increasing from 12.2 percent to 20.8 percent.

New Zealand Europeans, meanwhile, drop from representing 74.5 percent of the population to representing 65.5 percent.

The implications of our changing face as a country extend much further than merely the make-up of our ethnicities. For perhaps the first time in our history as a nation we are also looking towards a future in which we begin to see population decline.

“Any adult born before 1965 has lived through the doubling of the world’s population,” explains Natalie Jackson, Professor of Demography at Massey University’s School of People, Environment and Planning.

“We take growth for granted because it’s 6 Public Sector December 2015

all we know. We assume it’s inevitable but that isn’t the case at all.

“The population explosion that many of us have lived through is the direct result of two key factors that we are unlikely to ever see again in human history. The first was gaining control over infant and child mortality – so not only did the number of babies being born during the 19th and 20th centuries skyrocket across the globe, the vast majority of them survived. The second was the post-World War II baby boom,” Jackson explains.

“This can’t happen again, short of having to rebuild after some major global catastrophe. We’ve been living through a population spike that can’t happen again and is now coming to an end.

“Babies being born now are the last ones being born into a super-rapidly growing world population. The economics of all of the developed countries have been carried by a seemingly endless boomer wave, but that is over. We’re now facing the onset of agedriven population decline, first at subnational level, and we need to prepare for it.”

Superdiversity – right here, right now

“New Zealand is superdiverse now,” explains Mai Chen, Chair of the Superdiversity Centre for Law, Policy and Business and Managing Partner of Chen Palmer.

Chen is the author of the recently published Superdiversity Stocktake: Implications for Business, Government and New Zealand (available at www. superdiversity.org), and explains that the term ‘superdiversity’ is applied to societies with over 100 ethnicities or where more than 25 percent of the population was born overseas.

“In Auckland alone we have over 200 ethnicities and over 40 percent of residents

were born overseas. Auckland is now the biggest Pacifica city in the world. Fiftysix percent of Auckland’s talent pool are migrants or children of migrants and it’s not just an Auckland story – it’s spreading.

New Zealand is now home to 160 languages and, even in Southland, one-third of the population will be Māori, Asian or Pacific by 2038. Superdiversity is already here,” Chen adds.

New Zealand’s increasing superdiversity presents a wide range of both challenges and opportunities that are already changing the make-up of New Zealand society. And as Natalie Jackson and Mai Chen both contend, it’s not something we have the luxury of time to prepare for – it’s a conversation we need to have now.

“By 2025 our Asian population will pass Māori as New Zealand’s biggest ethnic group.

In the rural sector, for every ten people that are retiring from the workforce, only four new people are coming in. The average age of Europeans in New Zealand is currently 41 years. However, for Asians it is 30, for Pacific people it is 20, and for Māori it is 22.

They are the workforce of the future. They are the people who will keep going when we retire,” Chen explains.

“There is no them and us – it’s all us.

“We love the financial capital our migrants bring but we need to create an environment that continues to attract them and then makes them want to stay. We don’t offer close proximity to the international market or even a large domestic one. What we do offer is a lovely place to live and we need to continue to invest in that experience,” Chen says.

“It’s about ensuring all cultures and ethnicities are taken account of in making policy and law and in service delivery and consultation and communication – that all

New Zealanders can participate in our public life. This affects everything from education to employment, health, voting, and all the other rights and responsibilities that are part of New Zealand life.

“Ethnic diversity brings great value to the country: it increases productivity and innovation, and it increases our understanding of the markets we want to trade with. But it also brings some very significant challenges which we haven’t been able to talk about adequately up until recently.

“The whole purpose of the superdiversity stocktake is to ensure we have the facts so we can talk about this on the basis of the evidence. Superdiversity is not about race. It’s not about Auckland. It’s about New Zealand’s future – it’s about our economy and our social cohesion. It’s about the sort of country we want to be. It’s about all of us.”

Bicultural? Multicultural?

New Zealand’s increasing diversity also presents a number of unique challenges and implications from a Treaty of Waitangi perspective.

As Chen explains: “Māori and Asians will be the two largest minorities in New Zealand for the foreseeable future, but Asians are expected to overtake Māori in numbers by 2025. Given that Asians typically gain entry to New Zealand as skilled workers or cashrich investors, there could be a widening gulf in education and earning power between the two groups.

“The risk is that Māori, Asians and Pacific people end up seeing themselves as competitors, not only in business but also in competing for government funding and influence.”

Part of the challenge Chen highlights is the fact that new migrants are less likely to appreciate the importance of Māori culture or the significance of the Treaty, and less likely to see a place for themselves in the Treaty relationship. However, Chen remains confident that we have the capacity to manage this as long as we face the issue together, and talk about it.

“We’re now facing the onset of age-driven population decline, first at subnational level, and we need to prepare for it.”

“Māori are already doing business increasingly with Asian markets and have much more in common with one another than they have differences. Both cultures are family or whānau-based, both venerate their elders, both work to culturally based timeframes of future generations, and both do business based on relationships.

“I’m optimistic – but we need to respond to our increasing diversity in more than the current ad hoc manner. The Treaty of Waitangi and the indigeneity of Māori must still be given constitutional priority, but we also need to respond to the different needs, views, culture and values of other ethnicities.

The ‘Crown’ is now superdiverse.

“The government needs to consider adopting a formal multicultural policy, but it needs to be built on a bicultural base,” Chen concludes.

A local view

Future diversity and demographics are issues of vast scale, with national and international significance. Yet their impacts are perhaps most visibly seen and felt in the local context.

Malcolm Alexander, Chief Executive of Local Government New Zealand, explains: “The country is growing overall but that is primarily due to migration and that is mainly in Auckland. The other metropolitan areas have some growth but nowhere near what we see north of Taupo. Everywhere else is static or declining.

“We have an increasing number entering pension age on the one hand and, on the other, we’re also beginning to see a number of schools close because the younger population isn’t there.”

Alexander points out that local government manages the two main assets that everyone needs: roads and water. These are

multi-billion dollar investments that require constant maintenance and he expects this to be an issue in about 15 years as the renewals come due at the same time as the bulk of our ratepayers begin moving onto the pension.

“For the most part, we’ve been able to fund what we’ve wanted in our cities and towns but what will we do when the money isn’t there anymore? It forces a debate about the levels of service we can expect in the future for our communities.

“Do we continue to maintain the same network and infrastructure when the population isn’t there anymore? At what point do we consider retreating our investment or even closing a town because it isn’t viable anymore?” Alexander asks.

“These are challenging and unpopular conversations but we need to have the discussion in a grown-up manner, based on the facts.

“We need a broader discussion about the nature of the country we want to be and the full ramifications of our future demographics on that. We can’t keep passing the cheque to future generations.

“The key is not to generalise though.

It’s not a growth story everywhere, but it’s also not a story of decline either. That’s the nature of local government – it’s local because everyone’s different.

“What’s important is that we gather the facts and then work through the issues together so we can debate how, as a country, we are doing to address both the challenges and the opportunities that are coming.”

Living longer – dying slower

Diversity and demographics, especially those of an ageing population, create a similar set of pressures on our health system that is leading a number of practitioners to question some of the deeply held assumptions about the role of health services in New Zealand society.

“The baby boomers haven’t seen much death compared to previous generations,” explains health actuary Professor Heather >

December 2015 Public Sector 7

New Zealand as a village of 100 people

4,242,048 is our usually resident population in 2013. In our village of 100, each person represents 42,420 people .

In our village...

5 people joined the village between 2006 and 2013, compared with 7 people between 2001 and 2006.

Of the 100 people in our village…

Our village’s population has tripled in the last 87 years…

The median age increased by almost 10 years since 1981…

Our increasing population Based on the census usually resident population count

Age group and median age By sex, for the census usually resident population count

14 people in the village are of Māori ethnicity. Of these, 5 are aged under 15 years.

Our ethnic groups* For the census usually resident population count

Asian ethnic groups in our village almost doubled in size since 2001.

Visit our website for more information

Languages we use* For the census usually resident population count

1 in 5 Māori in our village can hold a conversation in te reo Māori Of those, just over a quarter are aged under 15 years.

McLeod, who works at the University of Cape Town. “They’re beginning to now, as they see their parents die and they don’t particularly like what they see about end-of-life care. We have medicalised ageing and dying to the point we are unlikely to be able to afford all the care that might be needed in future.

“We act as if death is somehow optional, or if it is a failure of the system when it occurs. We forget death is inevitable. We talk about health interventions and preventative care in terms of how they ‘save lives’, when the reality is what they really do is delay death.”

“Deaths happened fairly rapidly up until the middle of last century. We should celebrate the success of our health systems and the fact that we are living longer, but as a result we are also spending proportionately more of our lives with disability. We are exchanging relatively fast end-of-life trajectories for much slower ones as more people die of frailty and dementia.

“Consider someone who lives well into their 90s and begins to need additional care.

We talk about more care being delivered in the home but the children of that person may be in their 70s themselves. These are the sorts of demographic challenges we need to think through carefully,” McLeod explains.

“Already, the most common place for a New Zealand woman to die is in residential care. Increasing numbers of us are likely to need to be admitted to and will die in residential care. These numbers are expected to increase rapidly as the “boomers” come to the end of their lives and we’re not resourced for it.

“We need to question our culture of death avoidance. Even the updated draft Health Strategy is built around the concept of supporting New Zealanders to ‘live well, get well, and stay well.’ I’d like to add, ‘die well.’”

Starting the planning now

Andrew Lesperance, General Manager Strategy, Planning and Alliance Support for Nelson Marlborough DHB, talks about some of the challenges this presents from a regional perspective.

“We will have a really big increase in our

“The government needs to consider adopting a formal multicultural policy, but it needs to be built on a bicultural base.” over-75 group – 130 percent in Nelson and 180 percent in the wider Tasman region – over the next 20 years. We also know that people over 75 years old use 25 percent of our hospital resource.

“So if there are signs of growth in our over75 population, we need to start planning for that demand now. We know we’re going to need extra beds, and that we’ll need them in 2020 or shortly after.”

“We’re also looking at what’s happening in the technology space and asking questions about what possibilities that creates for our service models,” Lesperance explains.

“Some things are already available or in place. For example, socks that have electronic tracking monitors woven into them – allowing health providers to monitor the whereabouts of those living with dementia without being obtrusive.

“With the broadband rollout we’ve been exploring what the telehealth possibilities might look like over the next ten years. If a patient does not require physical contact, should we really require them to travel all the way to the hospital for a 15-minute consultation with a specialist?

“We need to think about how we configure our workforce to support these sorts of approaches. It’s one thing to buy some telescreens but it’s another thing to ensure it works for both the patients and clinicians.

“We also have a growing refugee community that brings 100 to 200 south-east Asian migrants to our region each year. It’s been great for the community but it also means we need to think about things like the availability of translators in our services. People sometimes assume you can rely on family members but that’s not always appropriate from a privacy perspective – there may be things people don’t want out in the conversation for their family members to hear and we need to

find approaches that respect that.”

Like McLeod, Lesperance also questions whether the expectations many of us hold of the health system will be realistic in the long term.

“People watch a lot of TV shows that present miraculous cures on a seemingly regular basis. It gives us an altered sense of perception and expectation that everything can be fixed by the system.

“We are now the third most obese country in the world. We have to balance our expectations of the system with appropriate expectations of self-responsibility. Is there a point at which some people don’t qualify for publicly funded interventions? These aren’t easy conversations, but they’re ones we’re going to need to face together.”

Coming to a town near you

“Demography has not traditionally been a sexy topic, but it’s beginning to attract some serious interest. I think of it as forensic demography: uncovering what can’t be seen on the surface to identify what is really happening, what really drives demand and policy,” Professor Natalie Jackson explains.

“With that data we can then support people and organisations to respond in meaningful ways. I typically observe people adopt three strategies whenever I present the future demographic picture.

“Some people respond in denial – perhaps accepting that it may be happening elsewhere but it’s not the case in their town. Others look to adopt countering strategies – assuming they can do things to block the change and preserve the status quo. But, as I frequently say, the change is real and it’s coming to a town near you.

“Those that are most likely to benefit from the opportunities our changing demographics present are those that adopt acceptance strategies – those who work to collaborate with the changing tides, conserve their resources, and create opportunities to communicate and, ultimately, celebrate a new, diverse future.”

Mai Chen, for her part, suggests we’re going to need to develop a whole new competency as a nation: “To survive in the >

December 2015 Public Sector 9

future, IQ may not be enough. Emotional intelligence may not even be enough. I believe we’re going to need cultural intelligence.

“We need to foster the cultural intelligence of our workers, our educators, and our policy writers. We need to understand that people can do the job we need them to do without being the same as us – and that this sort of difference is a good thing, not a bad thing.

“We need to establish a formal policy on multiculturalism, because with a formal policy comes a systematic as opposed to an ad hoc analysis of what that means, and funding to implement measures needed to make changes. Without that there’s no funding and maintaining our social cohesion in our superdiverse future requires investment.

“Some businesses have already moved very aggressively to target ethnic minorities and are already beginning to leverage these opportunities for greater profit. However, government has a critical role. Unlike businesses, which must prioritise their bottom line, we need central government to look systematically across the country to ensure things work

in a way that’s good for all population groups.

“Business needs to trade and invest, but government also needs to co-ordinate and safeguard social capital and invest to secure our economy and racially harmonious society.

“If we allow our social cohesion to erode, our increasing diversity may lead to increasing fragmentation and we’ll lose the foundation we depend on to get financial capital.”

No ‘Net’ Outcome

“The key to understanding our future demographics is that there is no net outcome,” explains Jackson.

“Each organisation will experience either or both the positive and negative aspects of the coming demographic shift. It will affect different aspects of our lives in different ways.

On one hand, we’re going to see huge growth in aged care. On the other hand, our lower birth rates will lead to sustained skill shortages and in all likelihood significant reductions in unemployment.”

Chen highlights some potentially hidden resources that may, fortunately, already hold

Valuing the vote

N

ew Zealand is one of the few countries in which permanent residents are entitled to vote as well as those with formal citizenship. However, the last two elections have seen the lowest voter turnout since women were awarded the right to vote in 1893.

“Most mature democracies are experiencing a decline in voter participation and in New Zealand it is declining steeply,” says Robert Peden, Chief Electoral Officer for New Zealand’s Electoral Commission. “In the mid-1980s we saw over 80 percent of those eligible to enrol turning out to vote. In the last election it had dropped to just over 72 percent.”

“In the 1950s, one in every four voters belonged to a political party. Now it’s only three or four percent.”

The Electoral Commission is required by law to conduct a review

10 Public Sector December 2015

the cultural intelligence we need to navigate a superdiverse future together.

“We now have many migrants that have been here a long time and could potentially assist us in bridging this experience. We have a significant source of untapped resource right here on our doorstep that could help develop the cultural intelligence we need,” she explains.

“Does it mean putting everything out in 160 languages? No, but it does mean we need to think about what’s needed to ensure everyone can participate. In the last election, all the information on voting was prepared in 25 languages, but on the day the ballot paper was only in English. There are some very practical things we can do to improve the election experience.”

“We also need to give thought to the stories we tell. The negative stories about migrants get a lot of airtime in the media. It would be good to hear publically some of the positive stories which are currently invisible and I think both business and government have a role to play there.”

after each election. non-participation As Peden explains, becomes more likely.

“The last review Yet vote participation is showed we have critical to an inclusive, a problem in cohesive society and participation and central to a functioning Robert Peden, we need to act democracy.”

Chief Electoral promptly. When “An increasing number Officer, Electoral asked why people of New Zealanders are Commission don’t vote, the coming from cultures main responses where democracy is not were that they are too busy, have the system they are used to. other commitments, don’t know Some are from places in which who to vote for, or are simply not it is not safe to vote – where interested.” people who vote ‘incorrectly’ “Every one of these responses are punished. As a result, we is actually another way of saying need to assure an increasing they don’t understand the number of residents not only importance of their vote of the importance of voting but and they don’t value it.” also that it is safe to participate,” “Research also tells Peden says. us that voting is a social These challenges are act. If we don’t learn to only going to deepen as participate when New Zealand’s diversity, and we’re young, migrant-based growth, continue an ongoing to increase. Peden and his team pattern of are implementing a number of strategies to address the decline in voter participation and are recommending that the issue needs to be given recognition as an all-of-government priority, with

multi-party support.

“A healthy democracy is in everyone’s interest. Worldwide, only one in 10 people live in a full democracy and four in 10 live in something approaching democracy.”

Quintessential

“It is the quintessential public good but it requires investment – it isn’t something we can take for granted. The values and culture that underpin it need to be learned and nurtured,” he adds.

“We need to have a conversation as a nation about what citizenship means. We need to give greater attention to civics and citizenship in our education system and we need to explore our concepts of nationhood and invest in maintaining and strengthening the social cohesion we need if we are to thrive in a superdiverse future.

“A diverse community offers great strength and opportunity.

It can be a great source of pride but to achieve that we need a tolerant, cohesive and inclusive society. A functioning democracy is the key to that.”

New Zealand as a village of 100 people Education and employment Education

Work status

Occupation

In our village, 80 people are aged 15 years and over...

Formal qualifications By sex, for the census usually resident population count aged 15 years and over

Work status By sex, for the census usually resident population count aged 15 years and over

People 40 Not elsewhere included

35

4

30 25 21 18

21

20

17

15

15

15 11

7

8

10

No Secondary qualification

0

Employed full-time

Clerical and administrative workers Technicians and trades workers

4 in 5 people aged 15 years and over in our village have a . formal qualification

2

4

Community and personal service workers Sales workers Machinery operators and drivers

2

People 0

Unemployed Employed part-time

Total Men Women

Income

10

8 3

Tertiary

Managers

Labourers

12 9

Occupation For the employed census usually resident population count aged 15 years and over

Professionals

36 Unknown

9

The main occupations of the people in employment are...

Total Men Women

2

4

6

8

10

Not in labour force

3 in 5 Māori aged 15 years and over in our village are in full-time or . part-time employment

Professionals occupational group in our village increased the most since the 2006 Census.

Labourers, professionals and managers were the three most common occupational groups for Māori in our village.

The income of people in our village...

Personal income For the census usually resident population count aged 15 years and over 15 men

13 4

3

2

1

12 23 women $30,000 and less 38 people

$30,001 to $70,000 25 people

$70,001 to $100,000 6 people

$100,001 or more 4 people 4

4

Visit our website for more information

Not stated 8

$13,400 was the difference in median income between men and women in our village.

$22,500 was the median income in 2013 for Māori in our village – $27,200 for Māori men, $19,900 for Māori women.

f oc u s h e a lt h

Joined-up care

© Viktor Levi | Dreamstime.com

A specific example of the integrated healthcare model in action is the falls prevention programme, which has already achieved real results for Canterbury in its first three years of operation.

Falls are a major cause of injury, especially in older people. Older people who fall and break bones require rehabilitation and are often at an increased risk of death following a fall: broken bones can have a huge impact on the overall health and wellbeing of an older person.

Through the falls prevention programme, health care professionals right across Canterbury – from social workers to nurses, physios and GPs – are trained to identify older people who are at risk of falls, and are able to refer them to a falls champion who can come to their increased numbers of older people, we will home and assess their safety level, and have less resource to focus energy on making help address any falling risks in their daya difference to the health of other important to-day lives. People identified at high risk cohorts in our region such as Māori and Pacific of falling are also assisted to develop their people.” strength and balance in order to prevent falls and stay living safely in their own Integrated approach homes for as long as possible.

A big part of Canterbury District Health The results of the falls prevention Board’s plan for the future involves the programme have been impressive. Since introduction of an integrated healthcare it was introduced in 2012, Canterbury approach, which provides flexibility to adapt District Health Board has seen 1083 to demographic changes. This approach was fewer people coming into the introduced a few years ago. emergency department due “In Canterbury, we want people, to a fall-related injury, and 373 as they age, to stay in their own fewer fractured hips. There homes and communities for longer. were also 86 fewer deaths after To do that, it’s vital that we are able treatment for a fracture (at 180 to work seamlessly across all our days post discharge). organisations, which is what our As well as keeping older integrated healthcare approach aims people well, and in their own Dr Greg to achieve. homes and communities, the Hamilton, “Essentially, integrated healthcare is falls prevention programme Canterbury has saved $18 million over about putting the patient at the centre District Health three years, which is equivalent of everything we do and wrapping Board to 20 hospital beds a year. the appropriate services around As a result of the falls them,” says Hamilton. “It involves a prevention programme and other particularly strong focus on general practice, initiatives, older people are supported which is where health issues are often first to stay at home longer, with fewer identified and managed, and it involves a lot Emergency Department and acute of teamwork across different disciplines.” admissions and much less time spent in Last year alone, this integrated healthaged residential care facilities, with 20 care approach saw almost 30,000 people percent fewer bed days for rest home care receive treatment in their own communities than four years ago. rather than having to go to the Emergency The benefits of this kind of efficient Department – a great outcome for the management of the growing older patients’ wellbeing, and it makes better use of population have also been felt by other the system’s resources.

Like the rest of the world, New Zealand’s demographic landscape is changing rapidly, which has implications for everything from the economy to social cohesion, education, and many other aspects of society – perhaps especially for healthcare.

Planning to address all of those requirements, in a way that doesn’t cost the earth, is no small feat. So what are New Zealand’s district health boards doing to cope with demographic change and its implications, now and into the future? BRIAR EDMONDS finds out.

F

or Canterbury District Health Board, the biggest question hanging over its head is how to meet the needs of its ageing population.

Dr Greg Hamilton, of the Planning and Funding team at Canterbury District Health Board, explains: “The impact an ageing population could have on our ability to provide health care services is profound.

Older people are a significant portion of the population in Canterbury. If we don’t change the way we provide services as our population ages, Canterbury District Health Board will see more and more of us needing to use a range of public health services. There is a real possibility that we might soon find ourselves drowning under the weight of too many people in the system.

“We don’t want to get overwhelmed by sheer numbers. We need to ensure Canterbury’s health services can meet the needs of older populations to deliver quality care. Alongside that, another risk is that if we don’t have an effective system for managing 12 Public Sector December 2015

“...Change is a constant bedfellow in healthcare. So we have to use a diverse response in addressing challenges as they develop.”

After consultation with affected people, their families/whānau, staff from a wide range of voluntary, non-government, and government-funded organisations and a range of health professionals, Waitemata District Health Board piloted a new way of diagnosing and managing dementia. Called a ‘Cognitive Impairment Pathway’, it focuses on GPs and practice nurses diagnosing typical dementia at an earlier stage; then in collaboration with the person with dementia, their family/whānau, and Alzheimers Auckland developing a care management plan.

Quick connection

This integrated care management plan includes regular home visits and telephone calls by the Alzheimers Auckland Key Worker (a qualified health professional with a current practicing certificate) to identify early any complications with quick connection back to the GP and practice nurse as required, carer education courses, carer support groups, and cognitive stimulation and socialisation activities for the person with dementia (cognitive stimulation therapy at the right stage of dementia has significant positive results). The Cognitive Impairment Pathway Pilot showed only atypical or complex cognitive impairment needs to be referred to specialist doctors, thus enabling those

patients to also be seen sooner.

Waitemata has shared its learning with other district health boards. The four northern DHBs (Northland, Auckland, Counties Manukau, and Waitemata DHBs) have confirmed a Northern Region Cognitive Impairment Pathway and are working toward this consistent model of care.

Waitemata District Health Board is developing a business case to cost and plan rollout of the tested and proven Cognitive Impairment Pathway across all its GPs and practice nurses, in readiness for the dementia prevalence increase in its population.

Aside from an ageing population, diversity in Waitemata is also on the rise. Robinson says, “We have increasing numbers of Māori and Pacific people in Waitemata, and we’re seeing a strong increase in Asian populations too.”

“One of the biggest issues with increasing diversity is ensuring the different groups get equal access to services. Different cultures access health care differently, and recent immigrants to New Zealand often don’t know how to access healthcare here. We focus a lot on helping people grow their health literacy and develop a good understanding of what is out there and how they can access it when they need to.”

Perhaps the biggest demographic issue that Waitemata is facing today, though, is the speed at which its overall population is growing. The district health board serves a population of 575,000 people, and that is rapidly swelling. It is the largest and fastest growing population of any health district in New Zealand.

Robinson says, “There’s no real ‘magic bullet’ or single answer to the issue of our fast growing population – or, in fact to any of the demographic shifts and changes we deal with.

Change is a constant bedfellow in healthcare.

So we have to use a diverse response in addressing challenges as they develop.”

Part of that diverse response involves focusing on general practice. Waitemata is helping general practice develop into a wellequipped, agile service that works seamlessly with other public health services, and provides proactive and preventative care to patients.

“That means looking at the whole patient when they come into a GP, and proactively assessing their specific health needs and developing a care plan around them, to support them to stay well in their own homes

and communities,” says Robinson.

“It’s at that general practice level that we can really make a difference, be proactive and try to keep people in their homes and communities for as long as possible, rather than having to go into care.

“This relies a lot on GPs and practice nurses, so at the moment here in Waitemata there is a lot of energy going in to a pilot group of general practices which are honing and developing their ability to be proactive and preventative. The results of the pilot will help develop a district health board-wide programme to support all general practices to take on this role and help prevent people ending up in care unnecessarily.”

To cope with the population growth, the district health board has also brought in some practical changes, including a new elective

“Essentially, integrated healthcare is about putting the patient at the centre of everything we do and wrapping the appropriate services around them.”

surgical centre to more effectively provide elective surgeries. This surgical centre will also help Waitemata DHB to manage the ageing population’s growing demand for surgical treatments for conditions that are common in older age such as hip and knee replacements, and cataract surgery.

© Reino Jonsson | Dreamstime.com

parts of the Canterbury population. The DHB is reporting shorter waits for care across the board, and that Cantabrians of all stripes are receiving more elective services.

Like Canterbury, Waitemata District Health Board also faces the challenge of an ageing population. According to Dr Tom Robinson, Public Health Physician with the Health Outcomes team at Waitemata: “Our ageing population is increasing quickly. The 65-plus, 75-plus, and 85-plus age groups are showing the largest growth out of all the population groups we have in the Waitemata region.”

Dementia, unfortunately, is going to be on the rise with more and more elderly people in the population, and Waitemata District Health Board realised it had to do something different to be ready for the large increase in dementia predicted.

December 2015 Public Sector 13

Q & A

Unleashing the power of data A conversation with Liz MacPherson When Liz MacPherson was 10 her headmaster father was forced to pack up his young family and move to another school because his own children tipped the school roll over the number he was graded to teach. Even at that young age Liz was aware that the rules were ridiculous, that policies made in Wellington could have a big impact on people’s lives, and how important it was those policies were well founded.

Today, as Statistics New Zealand’s Chief Executive and the Government Statistician, Liz tells Public Sector writer ROSE NORTHCOTT why good data is at the heart of good policy-making, and how data can add to New Zealand’s social and economic wellbeing.

How important is Statistics New Zealand in the big scheme of things?

It is often said that trusted official statistics and data are as critical to democracy as freedom of speech. It goes to having the ability for there to be really good quality, evidencebased decision-making and trust in good government. We’ve seen what’s happened overseas in countries like Greece when there has been an undermining of trust in official statistics.

What value do you add?

Almost every day you’ll see something in the news that is using our data as the basis of a story – from the latest employment figures to how connected and satisfied we are with our lives. We are increasingly looking at how we can provide better quality information and data that helps us understand who we’ve been, who we are and who we are becoming.

The value we add is huge.

While people know us best for the census, we collect, manage and distribute a vast range of statistics. People might think our work is dry until they consider the con14 Public Sector December 2015

sequences of not having that information.

Key indicators of economic growth are used by investors to weigh up if New Zealand is a good place to invest; the CPI reaches right into your life and has an impact on your mortgage or savings and is also used by the government for benchmarking welfare and super payments. Labour market statistics help identify skills gaps and where investment might be needed. Companies use our stats to decide where to base their business and what their customers are looking for.

It’s vital the government understand demographic changes. What are some of the key trends?

The changes are speeding up. Our population has tripled in the last 87 years. The median age has increased by almost 10 years since 1981. The population is growing, but the most rapid growth is in older ages, and the regions are aging much faster than the cities. A big issue as a nation is that we are becoming far more diverse in terms of ethnicity, culture and country of birth.

Twelve percent of the population are now in the broad Asian ethnic groups and that’s increased by 33 percent since 2006.

The Auckland growth story has been really dominant and that’s expected to continue to be important. Auckland is a diverse and changing place. Already parts of it have majority Pacific populations and in a few years some local wards are expected to have majority Asian populations. Ethnic diversity and diversity of distribution of ethnic groups across New Zealand is shifting. Regions, especially rural regions, are also feeling the effects of a people shortage already.

Families are getting smaller but at the same time are getting more complex, and there is an increasing demand on us to understand families both in and beyond households – blended families, extended family arrangements and the large rise of one person households.

Net migration remains volatile. At the moment we are seeing increases in both new migrants coming here but also New Zealanders choosing to come back and choosing not to leave. It’s something that as a country we are going to have to continue to focus on and which will require us to plan with the best information we have available to us. We help with that with our population estimates, but at the same time we are aware of external factors and the impact of what’s going on globally can have on migration patterns.

How can government agencies use your data?

The people we [government agencies] are providing services to are changing. We need to understand them and their needs and use the data to look at ourselves and how we respond. For example, more ethnic diversity in our young means challenges for education, and the changing ethnic mix of elderly has implications for aged care.

A good example is the way in which the police have used our demographic data to improve their services and think about their workforce strategy. They took our demographic data and looked at what was happening at the community level in Auckland and asked what their workforce needed to look like to reflect that. In terms of police services, it’s also about being conscious that some new migrants, for example, may have a very different experience of law and order in their countries from what they might experience here.

Tell us about the transformation Statistics New Zealand is undergoing.

Several years ago we realised the world around us was changing very fast and we were at the centre of a data revolution. We recently looked at our strategy direction and vision and said that what we are about is unleashing the power of data to change lives.

Until the data is taken and used and turned into knowledge it doesn’t have the power to help New Zealand improve and change lives.

Part of that is asking, how do we get this data out there to be used and are there other things we can do beyond statistics? We are focused on taking a more customer-centric approach and working in partnership with government departments. New initiatives range from working with other government agencies to improve their data and the way they use it, to creating new tools to allow people to access data and statistics more easily.

One of the really important roles we are increasingly playing is around provision of statistics for evidence-based decision making and policy. It’s around what works – if the government is putting money into something, does it work or not?

We are also increasingly helping other government agencies improve the effectiveness of their services through integrating data. We take the data we get from surveys and the data other agencies collect as part of their day-to-day working and we integrate that together. This helps government to identify and look at ways of

addressing complex social issues, such as crime and vulnerable children.

You sound passionate about your job.

I love my job and the potential it has to make a real difference in people’s lives.

I also relish being able to think systemwide. It’s an incredibly exciting place to be.

I feel privileged to be leading an organisation that has such a big role to play in actually using evidence to innovate and to help New Zealand achieve greater economic and social wellbeing.

What path did you take to reach Head of Statistics New Zealand in 2013?

I did a diploma in horticulture and grew and exported strawberries for a short time, then did degrees in English and Geography. That got me started with a real passion for telling stories with data – actually being able to draw out stories of everyday lives. It also made me realise the importance of digging behind the ‘symptoms’ to what was really going on. I joined the public service after finishing my Masters, working in a number of different government departments. My background is largely in labour market and economic policy.

What I think was most critical in terms of shaping me as a public policy expert is that I had the opportunity or put my hand up for some pretty large and complex policy and operational projects. From early in my career I was involved in things like cross-sector work on welfare reform, in education and training issues, immigration issues, and ‘the wall of wood’. I’ve always had a really key focus

on the criticality of evidence; really making sure you understand your problem properly.

Hence my grabbing the opportunity to come to an organisation I thought was absolutely critical in underpinning evidence-based decision-making.

What does it mean to be a female public sector CE?

Being the first woman Government Statistician, I do think about what will be my legacy, apart from the fact I will be the first female photograph downstairs. One of the reasons I’m in this role today is that I could see other female CEs around the public sector who were able to be authentic women leaders. They didn’t need to adopt a male leadership style. I think it’s important for me to role-model that, and to give women across the public service the confidence to know that you can do these roles and that you can also choose whether you want to do it. I’ve had and have a family and elder care responsibilities. I took time to decide if I wanted to take that next step. I think it’s entirely possible to look for opportunities to extend your career and to get to a big GM or a deputy secretary role and think ‘I will wait and learn my craft here’ as opposed to feeling pressure to take the next step.

Being a woman leader also makes me think more about diversity in general. Ensuring we have diversity across the organisation and in leadership levels, not just women but people from different cultures, experience and backgrounds. That diversity is critically important to effective decision-making.

Interested in continuing your career in public sector policy?

Our ideal candidate: You will have demonstrated experience in policy development, advice and analysis in a complex environment and an understanding of the regulatory and legislative processes of government.

What’s in it for you?

• Attractive remuneration packages • Ongoing professional and personal development • Values based work environments • Flexible work options; and • Opportunities to develop your leadership capability by coaching and mentoring others To discuss your options please contact Kirsty Brown at kirsty.brown@h2r.co.nz

Kirsty Brown

Georgina Makarios

Policy Contractors – We are working with a variety of government agencies who are seeking experienced policy contractors to lead and be involved in significant policy programmes. If this sounds like you, or you would like to have a confidential conversation about considering contracting roles, please contact Georgina Makarios at georgina.makarios@h2r.co.nz

For more details, visit www.H2R.co.nz or call us on 04 499 9471.

December 2015 Public Sector 15

f oc u s ed u c ation

As New Zealand’s population diversifies, the proportion of Māori and Pasifika people will grow. In the field of education these groups tend to have the most catching up to do and are a focus of education agencies’ efforts to help all students achieve. There are also challenges around inclusion of Asian students and those from other countries.

Is education in New Zealand equally accessible and meeting the needs of all children? Does schooling and resources allow for and respect different cultural backgrounds? Margaret McLachlan looks into this issue.

I

n Auckland, a cluster of 11 schools, and its parent community, have taken their children’s education into their own hands. They are participants in the Manaiakalani (‘hook from heaven’) programme.

Pat Snedden, Executive Chair of the Manaiakalani Education Trust, says it aims to raise student achievement in some of the most deprived socioeconomic areas with a pedagogy of ‘learn, create and share’.

Families are actively engaged: in areas where the average income is $19,000 per annum, they are asked to ‘invest’ in a $40 netbook and $3.50 per weekly fee. Some parents have asked their children to forgo Christmas presents in order to provide them with the technology.

Snedden says the programme is working on many levels. In the mid-1990s, no Tamaki College child got School Certificate; in the mid-2000s less than 30 percent got any NCEA certificates; in the last three years more than 70 percent have achieved NCEA level 2.

The programme is poised to go out to five clusters of schools, representing 15,000 children, throughout New Zealand.

“Māori and Pasifika students in the outreach clusters are being turned onto technology and becoming sophisticated users 16 Public Sector December 2015

Ministry of Education

Learn, create, share

and thinkers with the technology,” Snedden says.

“This success could ensure the whole of the decile 1 and 2 community in New Zealand might be digitally empowered and become future customers and innovators in a way never before achieved in low income communities.”

Support

Support for priority learners (including Māori and Pasifika) is important in all schools.

The New Zealand Council of Educational Research (NZCER) National Survey of Primary and Intermediate Schools in 2013, asked principals about their access to expertise to engage and improve learning of these priority groups.

It found some schools were confident they had the relevant expertise and knowledge within their own staff.

“However, substantial proportions of principals could not readily access external expertise or knowledge when it came to working more effectively with priority learners,” the report says.

For example, 43 percent said they couldn’t readily access information on reliable strategies to improve Māori student learning (32 percent Pasifika), and 44 percent said they lacked expertise and knowledge on better engagement of Māori students in learning (32 percent Pasifika).

Unasa Enosa Auva’a, President of the New Zealand Pasifika Principals’ Association, agrees access to Pasifika resources is an issue for schools, as is training more Pasifika people to be teachers and, ultimately, school principals.

“Hand-in-hand with the increase in Pasifika population, we need to have quality Pasifika teachers as great role models and as a pool to draw our principals from.”

Low-decile schools are most likely to have high proportions of priority learners in their schools. Nationally, decile 1–2 schools have a

median of 50 percent Māori enrolment and eight percent Pasifika (with some schools much higher than this).

Lisa Rodgers, Ministry of Education head of evidence, data and knowledge says, “Many parts of the country face issues of inequality and there is a range of programmes available to help schools address inequality.”

Decile-based funding is the most important tool lower decile schools have to address student disadvantage.

For example, a decile 1 school gets approximately $900 a student or more in extra payment ($600 per head for a decile 2 school). For a decile 1 school, this top-up funding averages almost one-third of its operational funding.

In 2014, approximately $115 million of additional funding went to decile 1–5 schools in decile-related funding.

In addition, the Ministry provides other resources to schools to support priority learners. For example, ‘Building on Success’ offers professional learning and development to 105 schools for 22,500 Māori learners; while English for Speakers of Other Languages (ESOL) funding supports students from nonEnglish speaking backgrounds to improve their English.

Chinese is the fastest growing language in

Ministry of Education Ministry of Education

New Zealand schools and uptake is increasing year on year. At primary school, in 2014, 24,143 students were learning Chinese languages (up from 2,293 in 2004) and there were 4,218 students at secondary school (up from 1,276 in 2004).

A Ministry $10 million Asian Language Learning in Schools fund helps; as does Confucius Classrooms, managed by the Confucius Institute, in a dozen primary schools in Auckland.

But overall, second language learning is declining: only 20 percent of students in New Zealand secondary schools learn a second language – the lowest participation rate in over 80 years.

Mr Auva’a says first language learning needs to start in early childhood, for example, A’oga Fa’a Samoa is Samoan pre-school

immersion programme. More could be done to manage the transition of these students to primary school.

The Ministry’s programme ‘Investing in Education Success’ will help schools share quality teaching and lift student achievement by establishing Communities of Learning.

It has now approved 42 such communities.

They are made up of 333 schools and represent about 120,000 kids of which about 26,000 are Māori and 10,800 are Pasifika.

Mr Auva’a says, “Communities of Learning is one approach to support Pasifika education and allow the development of specialist areas. To me, collective responsibility makes sense.”

He says schools need to find ways to engage with their communities, “who’ve always been interested in seeing their kids succeed”, and find key points of contact, such as churches and families.

“We’re talking to our community, and asking questions about how this can be done.”

Growth and choice

Recent news reports have highlighted the issue of increasing roll growth, particularly in Auckland, putting pressure on some schools to meet the demand. Katrina Casey, Ministry of Education head of sector enablement and support, says the Ministry works with local authorities to monitor population to help schools manage rolls.

“We are currently updating schools on projected population growth in Special Housing Areas using data from Auckland’s Unitary Plan.”

All Auckland inner city state schools have enrolment schemes which help them manage roll growth. In Christchurch, meanwhile, a massive investment to rebuild and renew 115 schools is underway.

“The property programme will be the largest single investment ever in education in that region – we will construct 13 schools on new sites, rebuild 10 schools on existing sites, fully redevelop 34 schools and moderately develop 58 schools.

“We are working with communities there, and elsewhere, to ensure every school is a good school, regardless of decile, location or status,” says Casey.

Most families are sending children to the school of their choice; in the NZCER primary and intermediate school survey only six percent of parents said their child was attending a school that was not their family’s

first choice. However, 12 percent of Pasifika parents and 11 percent of Māori parents said that their current school was not their first choice. Thirteen percent of those whose child went to a decile 1–2 school were not at the school of their first choice.

“Previous national surveys show a similar picture since 2003, indicating that the degree of choice in the New Zealand state and stateintegrated system is sufficient for the majority of families with primary-aged children,” the report states.

“Hand-in-hand with the increase in Pasifika population, we need to have quality Pasifika teachers as great role models and as a pool to draw our principals from.”

At the secondary school level, according to the 2012 NZCER Secondary School National Survey, all but nine percent of parents say the school their child attends was their first choice of school. However, Māori whānau are more likely to say their child’s school was not their first choice (14 percent), as are those attending a decile 1–2 school (18 percent).

Satisfaction

Most parents of primary and intermediate aged children, in the NZCER survey, were reasonably happy, or neutral, with their child’s education and the extent to which their teachers respected their family’s culture.

At the secondary school level, 71 percent of Māori whānau and 75 percent of Pasifika parents think that their child’s school recognises and respects the cultural identity of their child.

“This reflects recent efforts to affirm students’ cultural identity as one of the ways to improve student engagement in learning,” the report states.

Māori parents were those most interested in having more focus in their school on children’s cultures (20 percent of Māori parents wanted change), including more use of te reo in their child’s school.

In the State Services Commission’s 2014 Kiwis Count survey 85 percent of parents were satisfied with their children’s early childhood education service overall.

The survey also found that 82 percent of parents were satisfied overall with their children’s primary schooling, as were 78 percent of secondary school parents.

December 2015 Public Sector 17

A Tale of Two Cities Demographic change affects all of us, but it is local government, arguably, which faces the greatest challenges. Here Public Sector editor JOHN O’LEARY considers what two very different cities are doing to manage their populations’ changing demographics.

W

hen it comes to demographic change and the challenges and opportunities it presents, one city in New Zealand leads the others by a country mile: Auckland.

For a start, the Queen City is now much bigger than any other: in 2014 over 1.5 million people lived in the greater Auckland area. This population is set to grow rapidly, with the result that by 2040 the number of Aucklanders will exceed 2 million. Already a third of New Zealanders call the city their home, and this number will rise to 40 percent before long.

Auckland is not only much larger than other New Zealand cities; it is also noticeably more diverse in terms of its ethnic make-up. Over 40 percent of its population was born overseas, and there are much larger numbers of Asians and Pacific Islanders, in particular, than in other urban centres. So great is the ethnic diversity of modern Auckland, in fact, that it has become ‘superdiverse’, an appellation shared with a smallish number of major global cities. This superdiversity will only grow as more migrants choose to make the city their home.

These demographic facts present a big challenge as well as a big opportunity. How is Auckland going to house all these people? How is it going to transport them? And how is it going to make sure its superdiverse society remains connected and cohesive?

Any attempt to provide solutions to these challenges 18 Public Sector December 2015

small tower blocks of must involve the local six or seven stories. government body, This will allow greater and Auckland Council population density, has been doing some with spin-offs in strategic thinking terms of affordability around these issues. and better provision Key documents are of local services.” the Auckland Plan, an Jim Quinn, Chief “However, integrated land-use and of Strategy, densification can transport strategy with Auckland be an emotive a long-term focus, the Council subject among local Auckland Unitary Plan, residents. The politics which lays out what can of it are difficult and progress is be built where, and the Auckland slow.”

City Centre Master Plan, which sets the direction for the future Fast-track development of the city centre as the cultural, A practical example of what civic, retail and economic heart the Auckland Council is doing of the city. currently to help combat A man with a special interest Auckland’s housing problem, in these plans and the vision says Quinn, is to be seen in the of the city that they contain is Auckland Housing Accord, which Jim Quinn, Chief of Strategy at aims to accelerate delivery of the Auckland Council. Quinn housing across the city. Through identifies two broad priorities the Accord, Special Housing which are especially important.

Areas (SHAs) are being identified “We need to make sure Auckland for fast-track development. continues to have a welcoming Special consenting and approval and embracing culture that’s processes and set requirements friendly to new residents. for affordable housing in these Another thing we have to do areas have been put in place. is ensure that the city’s rapid “It’s a good example of central growth is handled in a good, positive way.”

Handling the city’s growth in a good, positive way entails finding solutions to two of Auckland’s most intractable problems: the limited supply of housing and chronic traffic congestion.

“The Auckland Plan envisages, among other things, increasing housing density, especially in the middle ring of suburbs on the Auckland isthmus,” says Quinn. “Instead of single houses on separate sections, we’ll increasingly see townhouses and © Lucidwaters | Dreamstime.com

Auckland

© Bhe017 | Dreamstime.com © Robert Cumming | Dreamstime.com

government working with the Council to help deal with one of the city’s most pressing concerns,” says Quinn.

Useful as things like the Housing Accord are, says Quinn, such measures alone cannot solve Auckland’s housing problem. “The issue has to be attacked from many angles, with developers, for example, being encouraged to build medium-density, affordable housing rather than large,

stand-alone houses which are expensive.”

With the median cost of a house in Auckland now nearly $800,000, many Aucklanders may have to abandon the dream of owning their own home in favour of long-term renting, says Quinn.

“This means making renting a more attractive option, as it is in Europe, for example. As a Council, we need to ensure houses and flats are of good quality, for instance. The government needs to play its part, too, for example, by increasing the security of tenant tenure.”

And what to do about that other perennial problem – Auckland’s chronic traffic congestion? It’s not an easy problem to solve, admits Quinn, but it’s one the city is working to address with the help of central government.

“An example of what’s being done currently is the Auckland Transport Alignment project, which sees the Council working with officials from the Ministry of Transport, Auckland Transport, the NZ Transport Agency, the Treasury and the State Services Commission to test options for how Auckland’s transport system could develop.

“The Alignment means there’ll be a more strategic, joined-up approach to building transport infrastructure in the city. The aim is to make sure we have the right transport structure in the right places so people can travel to

work or visit different parts of the city quickly and easily.

“One goal is to reduce traffic congestion, which at present is a reason why Auckland doesn’t win the title of the world’s most liveable city. We need to speed the flow of cars and trucks, certainly, but we also need to move people from their cars onto public transport. Projects such as the City Rail Link, which will provide a rail connection in the downtown area of the city, will help in this respect, as will things like improved bus services and more bike routes.”

But what about the first priority mentioned earlier? How can a Supercity that is growing fast and becoming steadily more and more diverse remain a friendly, welcoming place where people still feel connected with one another?

“We certainly don’t want ghettoes developing,” says Quinn.

“At the same time, we don’t want a vast, homogenised sprawl either. The idea is to have a mosaic of different communities, each proud of their background and traditions but which also feel they are part of something larger – of the city and of New Zealand generally.

“Partly this can be ensured by building good infrastructure, for example, transport links that connect different parts of the city quickly and easily, and parks and gardens where people can gather and relax. But it’s also a matter

“If we manage our growth right then Auckland will reap what’s called “the diversity dividend” – the creativity and innovation that comes from having a big, diverse population with a range of different experiences and skills.” of working to make people feel welcome and included.

“The city’s libraries, for example, are increasingly delivering programmes and services in multiple languages.

And this year there will be a bigger effort by the elections planning team at the Council to increase young adult and migrant voter turnout in the local elections. Traditionally, voter turnout by those groups has been significantly lower than for older, Pakeha voters.”

“Such initiatives may seem modest, but they’re one way to help new residents settle in.”

What does Quinn think Auckland will look like in 2040?

“If we manage our growth right then Auckland will reap what’s called “the diversity dividend” – the creativity and innovation that comes from having a big, diverse population with a range of different experiences and skills.

Auckland will establish itself as a cosmopolitan, global city able to compete for the best global talent with the likes of Sydney and Singapore. It’ll be a prosperous, creative, sustainable place that people from all over the world will want to live in. Moreover, it will be uniquely stamped in many ways with our proud Māori heritage which will make it stand out from other cosmopolitan cities. > “It’s an exciting prospect.”

December 2015 Public Sector 19

A Tale of Two Cities

Invercargill

f Auckland’s challenge – and opportunity – is the swiftly growing number of people living there, Invercargill’s is the opposite: a static, ageing population of around 50,000 with the problems that this brings in terms of a declining workforce and shrinking local economy.

It’s a problem which affects Southland as a whole, and both the Invercargill City Council and the regional and district councils are determined to do something about it. Key to their efforts is the newly announced Southland Regional Strategy, which sets out in clear, no-nonsense terms what needs to be done to attract more people to the city and the region.

“Invercargill and Southland suffer from being far from the main population centres and having cool climates,” says Pamela Gare, the ICC’s Director of Environmental and Planning Services. “During the 1990s we experienced strong population decline as people (especially young adults) moved away.

“Recently, a strong regional economy has helped stabilise population numbers, but we still need to attract migrants if we are to remain viable. The Regional Strategy sets out what we need to do to encourage people to live here.”

Basically, says Gare, it comes down to two things: encouraging local enterprises so there are jobs for people to do, and promoting the quality of life available down south.

“In terms of the economy, we have a strong agricultural sector, with dairying a notable success story. But if Invercargill and Southland are to thrive, we need to grow the local economy and create more jobs. To some extent this can be accomplished by increasing our strengths in traditional areas such as 20 Public Sector December 2015

agriculture and associated industries such as food processing, and by diversifying into areas such as aquaculture, where there is great potential.

“There is also the possibility of developing new, extractive industries such as oil and gas, lignite mining and so on.”

Gare points to the Awarua Industrial Development area as an example of what the council is doing to help strengthen the local economy. “Six hundred hectares of land between Invercargill and Bluff have been zoned for industry. Businesses can set up without having to go through lengthy RMA processes.”

© Lukesergent | Dreamstime.com - Sunset At Oreti Beach

I

Important as it is to increase strength in traditional areas such as agriculture and associated industries, Gare recognises that the city and the region need to create high-tech, white-collar jobs too.

“We can’t just rely on primary or extractive industries – it makes us vulnerable. We need to diversify our economic base.”

One problem with creating high-tech, white-collar jobs is that attracting middle and senior management has been difficult, Gare says. A senior manager, for example, may want to come south for a job opportunity, but

their family may not.

“We’ve got to make Invercargill, and Southland generally, a place people want to live in.”

While there’s little the region can do about its cool climate, there is plenty it can do to make it a welcoming, interesting place to live in and visit, says Gare.

“Invercargill already has excellent facilities such as the indoor Velodrome, Stadium Southland and a 50-metre heated swimming pool. And we have some brilliant parks and reserves – Queen’s Park, Sandy Point and so on.

“Culturally, we have a range of events across the year, some in our beautiful Civic Theatre. Companies like the Royal New Zealand Ballet visit regularly. If your tastes run more to the technological or practical, there is the impressive Bill Richardson Truck Museum, with its collection of over 300 vehicles including Henry Ford letter cars, Model T’s and V8’s.”

Regeneration Added to these existing assets is the urban regeneration scheme.

The ICC has been working with communities in things like

be receiving from agencies such as MPI, MBIE and NZTA to help develop the Regional Strategy’s Action Plan.”

So what will Invercargill and Southland be like in 2040?

“The population will be more diverse, and older, with a greater number of older people working part time. Economically, the region will be more diversified, both in traditional areas such as agriculture but also possibly in new areas like high tech.

Invercargill will have even better facilities than it does now – and now they’re pretty good, maybe the best of any regional town in New Zealand.

“I think we’ll be able to retain our welcoming, cohesive society.

It’s what makes the far south special.”

A striking example of how local government working in concert with an education provider and the region’s powerful local trusts has been able to improve the prospects of Invercargill and the district generally is provided by the Zero Fees scheme instituted in 2001 by the Southland Institute of Technology.

© Beautifulblossom | Dreamstime.com - Garden In Invercargill

is one reason why community markets, we’ve seen a growth new signage, street in the number development projects of international and so on. students.”

“We also have The presence programmes such of international as the Multi-Nations students at SIT is Community initiative one reason why designed to make Pamela Gare, Invercargill and migrants from overseas Director of Southland have feel welcome.”

Environmental an increasingly and Planning A striking example, Services, diverse population, says Gare, of how local Invercargill City ethnically speaking. government working Council Statistics New in concert with an Zealand reported education provider and that in 2013 there were almost the region’s powerful local trusts 3000 people who identified has been able to improve the themselves as Asian in the prospects of Invercargill and the region. While the number is district generally is provided by small compared with that in the the Zero Fees scheme instituted big cities (above all, Auckland), in 2001 by the Southland it has grown fast and it points to Institute of Technology. the increasingly multicultural, “It’s been a huge success. Far multiracial nature of society in more students took up the offer the far south. than anticipated; they spent A final drawcard for migrants, more money and many were says Gare, is the low price of older. They moved from up north housing. “Two hundred thousand and brought their spouses and dollars will get you a decent children south with them. By house in Invercargill. What would 2010, SIT’s total economic impact $200,000 get you in Auckland?” was estimated to be in excess of Central government has a role $210 million. to play in helping cities such as “The success of the Zero Fees Invercargill and districts such scheme has also meant that SIT as Southland, says Gare. “One has been able to keep fees for example is the funding we will international students low. This

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December 2015 Public Sector 21

Dealing with disparity Demographic change/shift impacts on all areas of society.

Here journalist and commentator COLIN JAMES looks ahead and considers what effects it may produce on national and local government politics.

T

he demographic age and ethnic imbalances projected for the next 30 years are likely to influence local and national politics by adding region-to-region socioeconomic disparities to the national socioeconomic disparities which have developed over the past 30 years. Disparities reduce social cohesion which is the bedrock of political stability.

This will play out at both local and national level. If imbalances in the age structure within a region or locality grow, that will likely affect local socioeconomic profiles and so local social cohesion. Region-to-region differences in socioeconomic profiles and/or differences between rural/provincial areas and major urban centres (especially Auckland) result in variations in material welfare. Such geographical variations would affect, and could undermine, national social cohesion.

At the local level, territorial authorities with higher proportions of post-workingage people and so a smaller working-age population tax base in relation to total population would likely have less capacity to invest in and maintain infrastructure and ensure the supply of some social and administrative services. At the national level, governments will face demands to balance the national interest in maximising the economic development potential in cities or regions with lower proportions of post-working-age people with action in, or with, those regions with higher proportions of post-working-age people to ensure disparities don’t undermine that potential by threatening national cohesion.

The national background

National social cohesion has been reduced through the past 30 years by widening income and wealth differentials as the real incomes of a relative few have risen while the incomes of most have either fallen or risen only a little.

This has been driven by a combination of rapid technological change, which has eliminated many well-paid production and clerical jobs, policy changes which have 22 Public Sector December 2015

reduced or eliminated protection for many well-paid jobs or reduced job protection through labour market flexibility and geo-economic change, including globalisation, which has shifted many jobs offshore to lowerwage economies. The result has been that many who pre-1985 would have had well-paying jobs have lowpaid in-person service jobs. The higher-paid replacement jobs are mainly in larger urban centres and are likely to be located there for some time ahead.

The ethnic dimension

In addition to changes in age distribution there are also growing regional and local disparities in the racial or ethnic mix: the proportions of Māori, Pasifika and immigrant Asians. Ethnic differences in education, employment, business, income outcomes and social integration which have different effects on potential prosperity and social cohesion in different regions and localities will pose policy challenges at both the national and territorial authority level and if unresolved cause tensions within councils and between councils and the central government.

Addressing those challenges – coupled with possible inter-ethnic tensions – may need innovation in representation to ensure all voices are heard, including council seats or official consultative bodies or informal mechanisms.

The populist risk and core-party responses (or not)

If people in Dargaville or Gore or Palmerston North feel that Aucklanders are privileged or if they feel resentment or are under stress because in their locality or region earnings are lower or services and infrastructure are lacking or inadequate, they will be more likely to resent, and less likely to form common cause with, urban dwellers who they think are getting a better deal from the economy and/or the government.

Alienation, resentment and stress breed recruits for populist politicians. This has been the case across Europe in the wake of the global financial crisis and the subsequent slow economic growth or contraction in some countries. Support for the traditionally dominant parties of the centre-left and centre-right (the core parties) has fallen as voters have defected to fringe parties and turned those parties into significant actors.

Votes by stressed, resentful or alienated people for populist politicians and parties are less a case of votes for their specific programmes, at least initially, than votes against elites and parties they associate in some way with the origins of, or failure to counter, their stress.

In New Zealand greater – or different – stress in rural or provincial areas than in urban centres could erode support for core parties in those localities. Different age distributions could compound that.

The National party found in the Northland by-election that retelling what it felt had been a strong national story in the general election in September 2014 and even breaking down the information (for example, job numbers) to specifics for the Northland electorate did not resonate even with many National supporters. Those receiving this message did not feel they were a local microcosm of a good national story. Auckland was Auckland and Northland was Northland.

The local reaction, the prosperity factor and opportunities

It is also conceivable parties could emerge representing specific areas or regions or generally representing “country” against “town” and either win electorate seats or clear the five percent party vote barrier. There could also be localised electoral responses, for example, the election of maverick councils which then behave in unpredictable ways and with results that may need the intervention of the national Parliament – for example, if they were to get unmanageably indebted.

New Zealand is probably too small for secessionist movements to develop critical momentum – if they do in fact emerge.

But district councils could be captured by local movements that, once in office, act in a quasi-secessionist way, that is, with erratic programmes and policies at odds with central-government-determined national standards, frameworks and policies.

Electorates and elected councils might also be more likely to resist attempts to promote amalgamation. Localness could become more important.

The alternative possibility is that workable policy responses are developed at national level and between the national government and local councils, which settle or ameliorate urban-provincial prosperity differentials and improve national social cohesion. This was the case in many countries, including

Territorial authorities’ role and revenue

One issue likely to grow in importance, at least as seen through local eyes, is the constitutional role of territorial authorities and their spheres of responsibility, action and power. At the moment councils are the creation of Parliament, which also arbitrarily devolves responsibilities onto and imposes constraints on councils in ways that complicate councils’ ability to respond to their constituents. Some more formal recognition, with clear boundaries and delineation of spheres of activity and responsibility, will be needed if councils are to respond well to constituents at a time of growing regional and sub-regional disparities of prosperity and social cohesion. The core parties so far have refused to consider formalising the relationship.

A second issue is related to the first: revenue sources for local government. The core parties in the central Parliament so far have refused to countenance significant new sources. One complication: if more sources of revenue are agreed by some future Parliament, the politics of regional disparity suggest there will be demands for local control of new revenue sources, not central allocation with strings.

Changing democracy

Another issue likely to grow in importance is demands for better representation. That is, not just of identifiable groups as noted above but of the population at large. This is a national issue as well as a local one but the politics of regional disparity may give it more traction at local level, both within large urban council areas and – possibly more acutely – in smaller provincial and rural council areas.

There is a trend to supplement the liberal democratic practice of delegating to elected representatives (and their parties) full authority to act on behalf of those who elected them, subject only to endorsement or rejection at the next election.

This is recognised implicitly by the representatives themselves through increasing consultation on national legislation and local projects, either formally through committee processes or the likes of interactive websites. Parliament-originated referendums on constitutional, quasiconstitutional and electoral matters are now conventional.

There is a wide range of other mechanisms, including citizens’ assemblies

and juries, deliberative polling and consensus conferences. They are as applicable at local level as at national level.

Supplementation of representative democracy is also developing from the bottom up – lumpily, unevenly and sporadically. There have always been interest groups, pressure groups, ad hoc movements and mass petitions (and occasional riots) and some have recruited or persuaded the wider public to endorse them. But their aim has necessarily been to present a case to elected representatives and pressure or persuade them to act accordingly. In the case of the modern bottom-up movements, there is reason to think the organisers and adherents see them as supplementary to the role of elected representatives. If anything, this tendency will gather strength. And, if that happens, it could readily be applied to local issues.

That is in part because society is more diverse and more segmented (and more globally connected) than in the classic twentieth-century period of core-party dominance of legislatures. It is also in part because trust in elected representatives has been eroding for some decades and that erosion shows no sign, yet, of a reversal. That erosion of trust suggests there will either be more such bottom-up activity or recourse to populist parties/movements as noted above.

Devolution of services

© Lars Christensen | Dreamstime.com

New Zealand, in the wake of the 1930s depression.

There may also be opportunities for territorial authorities to build on elements of prosperity which are strong in their areas to offset weaker elements and thereby reduce the impact on stability of the projected demographic disparities. Some may develop specialist tourism. Some areas, such as Golden Bay, are very popular retirement destinations for better-off people who may add to the prosperity of the region or locality, including income-generating capacity.

Golden Bay illustrates the attraction of parts of New Zealand to immigrants seeking a particular living environment who can add value and add to overall prosperity. And at a time when small-scale enterprises can challenge dominant ones and when some see ‘local’ and/or ‘small’ as more trustworthy than ‘big’ and/or ‘out-there’, prosperity may develop from bottom-up activity, either selfdriven or fostered by territorial authorities or the central government.

Another potential localising tendency comes through the rise of not-for-profits in number, range and funds over the past decade or so and an emergent willingness in the current government to explore the possibility of devolving more provision of services, with greater contractual flexibility, to not-forprofits. In return, social services policy might benefit from not-for-profits’ on-theground knowledge – and presence as part of their communities – and their potential to innovate and to tailor services more tightly to individual and local needs. Coupled with a growing government willingness to move to “client-directed services” (with safeguards), this might potentially have a localising influence, which in turn might result in more regional and local self-determination and consequently reduce perceived disparities.

The full version of Colin James’ article can be found at http://www.colinjames.co.nz/2015/05/19/ some-thoughts-on-the-political-implications-ofregional-demographic-shifts-and-imbalances/ December 2015 Public Sector 23

P oint of v iew

© Shutter999 | Dreamstime.com

The Dark Arts

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’m going to reflect, rather frustratingly I suspect, not on the intricacies of policy for an ageing population, but more on the challenges of getting a population of voters to see what they cannot see: how the future will be different from today.

That’s not to say that the policy work is not important. It is. But if proposed changes are unpalatable to the public, then all our debates about policy settings and levers will be for nought. No one will have the appetite to make them happen.

At this point I usually pull out an elaborate analogy about wallpapering: 90 percent of the process is preparation and then you finally get to put up the wallpaper. So it is with policy for a population change that has not yet happened and an issue that we cannot yet see. Preparing the ground – or wall – or public understanding – is everything.

We know there are some philosophical challenges on exactly what each generation is prepared to do for the next.

People can be reluctant to do much for their future selves, let alone anyone else’s future, and views on intergenerational equity vary. In reality endless arguing about who got more, the previous generation or the next, seems mean-spirited and futile.

While we would all applaud the notion of equity in an academic sense, in reality history presents us with challenges that are unique to us. There are several generations who sent their fathers, sons, brothers, husbands and lovers to war, and

24 Public Sector December 2015

By Diane Maxwell, Retirement Commissioner lived with an uncertainty and loss that I couldn’t even begin to comprehend. If there is to be a competition between who gave the most, let’s declare them the all-time winners and stop arguing about it. Whether I got KiwiSaver kickstart but you got a free education does not cut the mustard.

If we acknowledge the issues around who pays for the next generation and the one to follow, we also have some fearsome challenges ahead in the area of increasing knowledge and understanding amongst the voting public of slow, but significant, demographic change.

In a nutshell, we are all time-poor with relatively short attention spans, and the subject of tomorrow is for many complex and boring.

As a society many of us struggle to think beyond today.

We are busy, and tired, and consumed by all we have to do in the next 24 hours. We operate with a scarcity of time (and sometimes money) which keeps our thinking narrow and short term. It’s a mentality that gives us tunnel vision and stops us planning successfully (which is why it is so much easier to think clearly when you have ‘enough’ and why panic sets in when you don’t).

But the real winner here in keeping us in the dark is our inability to ‘see’ how tomorrow will be different from today.

When we do look ahead to tomorrow we do so through today’s lens, because it’s the only way we know how to look

at it and it’s the only reference point we have.

When we think about a 65-year-old of the future we give them the body, attitudes, life and goals that we have today. In fact they will be largely different.

(As an aside, I suspect that some things will stand the test of time such as the need for human companionship, for life to have meaning, the importance of resilience, our desire to have a little more than ‘enough’ and a little more than our neighbour.)

But, if at birth you knew you had a good 100 years plus ahead of you, the path of education, work, and retirement would change. Life stages may become more intermingled, with several stints in education, and more than one career, maybe time out at forty-something to regroup before starting career number two which will take you through to your 70s or 80s. The next wave of health technologies will see us in great shape. In other words I don’t think greater longevity will mean the first 65 years stay the same, but we just tack more on the end.

Time to prepare

The policies that will work for future generations of retirees don’t make sense for today, but they need to be signalled today so that those who will inherit them have time to prepare.

I had a meeting recently with delegates from a country that does not operate as a democracy and in trying to describe our work I pulled out one of my favourite quotes:

‘Politics is downstream from culture – plant a narrative firmly enough in the popular imagination and the popular politics will follow’ (Andrew Breitbart).

We are a democracy so we don’t get to ‘tell people’ how it will be. They need to buy in and we need to plant a narrative in the popular imagination. Which begs the question: what skills are needed for the task?

I’m a firm believer in ‘the dark arts’. It’s the power of influence and persuasion – knowing what drives our thinking, what makes things interesting, and what makes the penny drop about what we should do next.

Beliefs are shaped by family, friends, education, media, film, soaps, chatter, and increasingly, social media. All the things that build a public narrative and reflect social norms.

As I described this last paragraph to the Chief Policy Adviser sitting beside me, he stifled a smirk and mumbled something about marketing buzzwords. And therein lies the rub. Things may have to get a little more low-brow than some are comfortable with.

Policy makers, marketers and psychologists will need to work together, with a healthy respect for each other’s craft and like never before if we are to plant a narrative in the popular imagination, so that good policy can follow.

It’s a partnership that needs to happen.