Energy Perspective Natural Gas Market •
A fire at the Freeport LNG export facility impacted domestic and foreign markets over the concern of taking 2 Bcf/day of export demand out of both U.S. and international markets.
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The July 2022 contract closed as high as $9.32 and as low as $8.699 last week with the low point occurring from the Freeport LNG fire news.
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Today’s late afternoon trading saw the market down $0.20 from last Friday for prompt July contract and currently trading at $8.64.
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Winter of 2022-2023 is trading at $8.539, representing only a $0.10 increase from the current July NYMEX price and providing little incentive for storage owners to inject.
Weather Temperature Probability
June 13, 2022
Electricity Market •
All of the seven hubs tracked in this publication gained strength from the previous week.
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N.Ill saw the largest increase in pricing, gaining $4.75 per MWh or 7.93%.
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ATSI was the hub with the second largest increase in pricing. It gained $4.95 per MWh, an increase of 6.99%.
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PJM-W saw its price rise $5.05, a 6.90% increase.
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SP-15 saw the smallest increase in pricing. It gained $2.40 per MWh or 2.99%.This brought its price up to $78.20.
Petroleum Market Precipitation Probability
6-10 day outlook probability. Created 6/12/22 for the week 6/18/22–6/22/22. Source: www.noaa.gov
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NYMEX WTI futures closed higher for the seventh week even after a late week pullback from surging inflation and fears of renewed lockdowns in China.
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The July contract settled at $120.67, up $1.80 per barrel or 1.5% for the week ending June 10th.
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Realization that production from OPEC+ will not meet necessary quotas, coupled with limited excess global capacity, is leaving oil and products higher as supply options remain limited. The most likely source of new production is through demand destruction, which is a result of higher prices.
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Technically, crude markets continue to trend upward, holding support at the 20-day moving average. The methodical rise of the oil complex over the last six weeks lends to a healthy chart. Stochastics are just now starting to approach over-bought levels. This in combination of potentially more aggressive actions by the Fed this week could force a re-test of the 20-day moving average around ~$115, which should find strong support.