Austria's 2016 Presidential Election: A European Perspective

On December 4th, Austria held a rerun of its presidential election, after an earlier election in May had been annulled by the constitutional court after it had found evidence of postal voting irregularities. The May vote saw independent and pro-EU candidate Alexander Van der Bellen claim a narrow victory (just over 30,000 votes) over far-right and Eurosceptic candidate Norbert Hofer of the Freedom Party (Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs). As the first projections of the rerun results came in, however, far-right candidate Norbert Hofer had to admit defeat as Van der Bellen’s share increased from 50.35% to 53.3% of the vote (final confirmation pending).

Although Austria’s presidency is mainly a ceremonial position, the election was given a high profile inside and outside the country, influenced by the reverberations of Brexit and the election of Donald Trump as President of the United States.

This was acknowledged by the candidates themselves who represented an electorate deeply divided over the role of Austria in the EU. The candidates’ platforms A former leader of the Green party, Van der Bellen described himself as an open-minded, liberal and pro-EU candidate, who even is in favour of a federal “United States of Europe”.

Hofer, on the other hand, ran on a nationalist platform indicating support for an EU membership referendum early in his campaign. Later, however, Hofer softened his position on the EU, saying he preferred to stay in a reformed decentralised union. He expressed sympathy with Vladimir Putin and claimed that Germany’s decision to open its

borders to refugees was “a major mistake that has inflicted massive costs on the entire EU, as well as Austria and taxpayers”.

European argument a decisive factor Austria’s stance towards the European Union is likely to have been a deciding factor in the election. In fact, the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the EU – the UK referendum had been held a month after Austria's May election – may have played a role in shifting votes to Van der Bellen.

According to a poll by Austrian state broadcaster ORF, 65% of respondents supported Van der Bellen because of his pro-EU stance. Indeed, Van der Bellen himself expressed: "It was not a rerun but a new election," implying that voters were influenced by the changing political landscape over the last six months. He added: "The world around us has changed. We had the Brexit referendum in Britain and the election of Donald Trump in America".

Taking a look at this from the Freedom Party’s perspective, there have been suggestion that party leader Heinz-Christian Strache, considered to be the more aggressive of the two leading party figures, might have negatively impacted the election for Hofer by campaigning in a too polarising way. The underlying debate indicates that while voters might not be inclined to support an aggressively polarising candidate, they may well see more ‘moderate’ populists as suitable candidates.

Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 0203 047 2000 | @edelmanUK

Reactions from Europe Given the international context of rising populist movements, an otherwise less prominent Austrian presidential election turned into a proxy diplomatic battlefield for European leaders in both pro and anti-EU camps. Germany's Social Democrat Vice-Chancellor, Sigmar Gabriel, called the result "a clear victory for reason against rightwing populism". German Foreign Minister FrankWalter Steinmeier said in a Twitter post that the "whole of Europe has heaved a sigh of relief" at the outcome. European Parliament President Martin Schulz tweeted that Van der Bellen's victory was "a heavy defeat of nationalism and anti-European, backward-looking populism."

French President Francois Hollande also congratulated Van der Bellen in a statement, saying "the Austrian people have chosen Europe, and they have chosen to be open.“ On the other hand, French far right politician Marine Le Pen congratulated Hofer's Freedom Party for fighting "with courage�, adding that "the next legislative elections will be their victory". The

former Ukip leader, Nigel Farage, intervened in Hofer’s campaign last week by declaring on Fox News, that Hofer would hold a referendum on Austria leaving the European Union in case of a victory. This intervention, however, was perceived by the Freedom Party as detrimental to their cause.

The Austrian presidential election is another indicator showing that the European population is increasingly divided on European integration, namely between those who are pushing for a deepening of the integration process, and those who are calling for a return to national governance. The majority of the populist movements promoting the latter and rising against the establishment can be located at the extreme left and right ends of the political spectrum. This divide seems to be gaining primacy within as well as between countries across Europe, part of a global wave of anti-globalisation trends coming from different corners of the world and in different ideological flavours.

Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 0203 047 2000 | @edelmanUK