Edelman Party Conference Analysis 2014

EDELMAN PARTY CONFERENCE POLL ON YOUR MARKS, GET SET……

As the final party conference season before the election, expectations were running high. The stakes were high for a Leader of the Opposition who has become used to setting the political agenda, but on this occasion he failed to deliver. For the Conservatives, a rocky start resulting from a sex Gurpreet Brar scandal and a defection was quickly Managing Director Public Affairs turned around by some clever policy announcements combined with strong individual speeches. Finally, a trip to Glasgow where the Liberal Democrats worked to demonstrate unity, despite some minor cracks on aviation policy.

At Edelman we felt it would be helpful to understand the policy environment following on from the party conference season. With policies being announced almost hourly over the last month, it has been hard to keep track of what has resonated with the electorate and what is important for them. And importantly what should the main political parties take away from this party conference season as they plot their course to political success in 2015.

HEALTH TOPS THE AGENDA Health

55%

Economy

54%

Immigration Education

KEY POLICY

1

40% 33%

Welfare

The Conservative’s pledge to “raise tax-free personal allowance” is the winning policy

To raise the tax-free personal allowance from to

£10,500

£12,500 It is rated the most realistic and deliverable policy (57% believe it is realistic and can be delivered)

One of the top 4 priorities for Britain (71% say it is a high priority for the country)

It is ranked 1st for increasing people’s standard of living (60% think it will increase their standard of living)

Most likely to have a positive impact on the public themselves (72% think it will have a positive impact on them personally)

24%

Crime Housing Family

18% 17% 14%

Tax

11%

Europe

11%

Environment

10%

Pensions

9%

Transport

Top priorities for the UK

3%

POLICIES IMPACT VOTING INTENTION Impact of policies on undecided voters

20%

+2%

5%

+2%

15%

+1%

DON’T KNOW

DON’T KNOW

BEFORE

AFTER

Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 0203 047 2466 | @edelmanUK

EDELMAN PARTY CONFERENCE POLL CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

LIB DEMS

1 To raise the tax-free personal allowance from £10,500 to £12,500.

1 To increase NHS funding by £2.5bn.

1 To increase NHS funding by £1bn a year from 2016 onwards.

• Awareness 52% • High priority for Britain 71% • Positive impact on me personally 72% • Realistic & deliverable 57%

2 To reduce the total amount of welfare benefits any household may receive from £26,000 to £23,000.

• Awareness 38% • High priority for Britain 52% • Positive impact on me personally 17% • Realistic & deliverable 29%

3 To allow the UK to veto rulings from the European Court of Human Rights, and replace the Human Rights Act with a Bill of Rights.

• Awareness 46% • High priority for Britain 48% • Positive impact on me personally 30% • Realistic & deliverable -3%

4 To raise the threshold at which people pay the 40p rate of income tax from £41,900 to £50,000, during the next Parliament.

• Awareness 45% • High priority for Britain 39% • Positive impact on me personally 27% • Realistic & deliverable 32%

SEE THE VIDEO

• Awareness 34% • High priority for Britain 86% • Positive impact on me personally 67% • Realistic & deliverable 4%

2 To raise the minimum wage from £6.50 to at least £8 an hour by 2020.

• Awareness 52% • High priority for Britain 74% • Positive impact on me personally 36% • Realistic & deliverable 41%

• Awareness 33% • High priority for Britain 84% • Positive impact on me personally 66% • Realistic & deliverable 20%

2 To increase the income tax threshold to £12,500 by 2016 and to subsequently prioritise raising the threshold for employees’ national insurance contributions.

• Awareness 42% • High priority for Britain 62% • Positive impact on me personally 62% • Realistic & deliverable 37%

3 To introduce a “mansion tax” on properties worth more than £2 million.

3 To build ten new garden cities, as part of a plan to build 300,000 new homes a year.

• Awareness 51% • High priority for Britain 43% • Positive impact on me personally 12% • Realistic & deliverable 28%

• Awareness 23% • High priority for Britain 41% • Positive impact on me personally 20% • Realistic & deliverable -17%

4 To not hold a referendum on EU membership unless there is a significant further transfer of powers to the EU.

4 To increase tax on high-value properties by introducing new additional council tax bands.

• Awareness 30% • High priority for Britain 30% • Positive impact on me personally 28% • Realistic & deliverable 7%

• Awareness 33% • High priority for Britain 40% • Positive impact on me personally 16% • Realistic & deliverable 27%

METHODOLOGY Edelman Berland, an independent research consultancy, interviewed 1,000 UK adults between 8th – 9th October 2014. All adults were aged 18+ and were nationally representative of the UK population. To focus on policy rather than party, the 12 policy pledges were anonymized and shown to respondents in a randomized list.

For more information see www.edelmanberland.com

Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 0203 047 2466 | @edelmanUK