Edelman Queen's Speech Briefing

QUEEN’S SPEECH 2015 OVERVIEW The first fully Conservative Queen’s Speech since 1996 contained few surprises – unless you count the fact that Labour MP Dennis Skinner, who by tradition fires off a quip at Her Majesty’s representative Black Rod when he arrives to summon the Commons, was uncharacteristically silent.

Perhaps the ‘Beast of Bolsover’ was put off by being surrounded by the 56 Scottish National Party MPs, who have already put the cat among the Westminster pigeons by trying to boost Labour MPs out of their seats in the House and doing outrageous things like clapping in the Chamber. Their leader in the Commons, Angus Robertson, will today start his task of positioning the SNP as the “real alternative” to what the party calls “Tory austerity”, trying to discomfit Labour still further.

more support for families; and Liz Kendall will push for a greater reform agenda. Meanwhile, David Cameron will watch them fight it out while seeking to enjoy his overall majority for as long as he possibly can.

It won’t be easy. Despite his unexpected outright win at the election, the Prime Minister only has a majority of 12. The honeymoon period will soon be over; the news that the plan to replace the Human Rights Act is running into trouble is proof of that. The political uncertainty of the last few years may be replaced by simply not knowing whether the Government will win key votes week to week, while David Cameron tries to keep his MPs’ focus on the European referendum.

Labour itself may find it difficult to respond in a cohesive way to the Queen’s Speech, with those senior figures vying for its leadership adopting different tacks. Andy Burnham will lament the lack of protection for public services; Yvette Cooper will call for

POLITICAL REACTION David Cameron

Gurpreet Brar

THE HEADLINES EU REFERENDUM BILL

Prime Minister

“A country that backs those who work hard and do the right thing. This is a Queen’s Speech for working people” Harriet Harman

Interim Labour Leader

“The reality of this Queen’s Speech will be very different from the rhetoric. It talks of One Nation – yet Cameron sets the nations of the country against each other.”

Nick Robinson

BBC Political Editor

“This is David Cameron’s day, but he is going to find very, very soon that it only gets harder from now on.”

Paul Brand

After years of effort, the Conservatives will finally get their EU Referendum Bill – probably the first measure that will be debated once the Queen’s Speech is approved. Already there’s talk of the vote being held in 2016, arguments over whether 16 year olds should be able to take part, and an SNP proposal for every nation in the UK to have to agree for us to leave.

BUSINESS AND ENTERPRISE BILL The war on red tape continues, with Sajid Javid targeting a £10 billion cut in this Parliament. There will also be a Small Business Conciliation Service to help resolve disputes such as late payment.

SCOTLAND BILL

“The Queen says her Government will adopt a ‘One Nation’ approach.

Can sense Ed Miliband squirming somewhere.”

The SNP and the Conservatives will clash over the extent of the powers to be given to Holyrood and what exactly constitutes David Cameron’s promise to create “the strongest devolved government anywhere in the world”.

Douglas Carswell

COMMUNICATIONS DATA BILL

“Looking forward to the Queen’s Speech. UKIP will support sensible proposals, oppose the daft and try to amend that which could be better!”

Blocked by the Lib Dems in the last Parliament, the proposal to require companies to retain phone and web data to aid in the fight against terrorism will be an early controversy.

ITV Political Correspondent

UKIP MP

Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 0203 047 2254 | @edelmanUK | 1

QUEEN’S SPEECH 2015 SECTOR PERSPECTIVES ENERGY AND INFRASTRUCTURE Energy has a unique ability to reflect the politics of the day.

Before the election, it was a flagship energy price freeze that summed up everything Ed Miliband’s Labour wanted to convey (we’re on the side of the people) and everything their opponents feared (we don’t understand how markets work). That trend has continued with the post-election politics of this Queen’s Speech.

First, there is the realisation among Tories that they need to make their ban on onshore wind work. A promise made to NIMBY voters in England meets the reality of the pro-wind SNP, who not only dominate Scotland, but also chair the Energy Select Committee. The solution? A wind policy that avoids Scotland entirely, applying only to England and Wales. Expect more of this approach in other policy areas.

Second, there is the need to invest in Scotland and resist the Saudi effort to drown other suppliers in a glut of cheap oil. A collapse in oil prices has made upstream exploration unaffordable for many firms, including in Aberdeen.

New powers for the Oil and Gas Authority are designed to squeeze out every drop of oil and drive efficiency in exploration. This is both local, taking the teeth out of the SNP’s bite; and global, aiding domestic security of supply in onshore and offshore oil and gas.

BUSINESS AND FINANCE

FOOD, DRINK AND RETAIL After the last few months of political uncertainty, the retail and consumer goods sectors will broadly welcome today’s Queen’s Speech as business as usual, particularly the new Bills designed to strengthen the Government’s support for business.

The commitment to reduce £10 billion of red tape, outlined in the Enterprise Bill, is much needed. However, the detail here will be important: previous attempts from governments at reducing red tape have often failed to convert the rhetoric into tangible results for business. Reassurances from the Government that this marks a new agenda, with regulatory burdens reduced to achieve real impact for business, will be needed.

As one of the UK’s largest employers, the sector will also be keen to work with the Government on their programme to support training and skills in the workplace, and will welcome measures to reduce the cost of living for customers and colleagues outlined in the National Insurance and Finance Bills. Similarly, the commitment on VAT offers the sector much needed fiscal policy stability as it continues to weather fluctuating commodity prices.

Finally, while other flagship Government policies such as the EU Referendum and City Devolution Bills remain of great importance to the sector, it will hope that they do not take momentum away from delivering other vital policy reforms, most urgently on Business Rates.

HEALTH

The business sector had high expectations from the first Queen’s Speech by a Conservative government for 18 years.

The challenge for the Prime Minister and his key strategists has been to deliver what business needs to drive growth and productivity, whilst also being a Government for ‘all working people’ and presenting a ‘one nation’ legislative agenda.

Given the furore that greeted the Coalition Government’s reorganisation of the NHS in the last Parliament, you could forgive David Cameron and Jeremy Hunt for wanting to avoid giving the Opposition a legislative stick to beat them with on health services in this new Session. So it proves, with no dedicated Health Bill announced in the Queen’s Speech.

This Queen’s Speech largely achieves that objective. The Enterprise Bill’s measures to cut red tape from independent regulators, as well as Government, will be particularly welcome, especially if it is achieved. The City will be relieved that there are no further unexpected reforms to the financial services sector.

This doesn’t mean that health won’t be high on the Government’s agenda.

Trust deficits are reaching the £1 billion mark and concerns remain about care standards. During the election, the Conservatives committed to providing the NHS with an extra £8 billion a year by 2020; even this may not be enough to address rising public concern, so the Government will have to push hard its pledge to create a ‘seven day NHS’, with GP surgeries open on weekends. They will also seek to improve mental health services.

The EU Referendum Bill is the major negative on the legislative balance sheet for business, as fears of ‘Brexit’ create a level of business uncertainty which is entirely unwelcome. The decision to expedite this Bill stems in part from a desire to get the matter dealt with as soon as possible.

Ultimately this Queen’s Speech is in some ways about the message it sends to business and the mood music, rather than the details of the legislation.

Attention will now turn to the next setpiece event: the second Budget of 2015 on 8th July, where the sources for the next round of savings will need to be specified.

At this point, the new Parliament looks set to be a continuation of the old when it comes to debates on health. Hospitals remain under strain due to problems with social care. Increasingly, older people are heading to hospital and remaining there, upping the pressure on services. With more cuts to come to local authority budgets, this situation doesn’t seem set to end any time soon.

Opposition parties – particularly Labour – will continue to trump the benefits of integrating health and social care, which the Government began in the last Parliament with the introduction of the Better Care Fund, pooling health and social care budgets. However, this process will have to go much further and much faster if Britain is to meet the challenge of its ageing society.

Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 0203 047 2254 | @edelmanUK | 2