NO END IN SIGHT TO BREXIT BATTLES 14th June 2018
Pawel Swidlicki Senior Account Manager
KEY TAKEAWAYS After a marathon two-day session, the EU Withdrawal Bill has once again cleared the Commons. The Government prevailed on every vote, although a key concession preventing defeat over Parliament having greater control over Brexit - threatened to unravel almost immediately, and plunged the Conservatives into a renewed bout of infighting. The voting also revealed Labour’s internal divisions on Brexit. Below are our key takeaways:
Mrs May is running out of room for manoeuvre and Parliament could ‘take back control’ The Government agreed to hold further discussions over Parliament’s role in the Brexit process. Why? Because rebel Tory MPs were on the cusp passing an amendment that that would have seen an unprecedented curtailment of Executive powers. In short it would have given MPs a veto over any exit deal AND the power to instruct Government to pursue a particular course of action in the talks that followed. Parliament, rather than Government, would effectively have ‘taken back control.’ However, it subsequently emerged that the Government and the rebels had different interpretations of what had been agreed to. What followed was a concerted pushback from Brexiteer ministers and MPs, who insisted it would be completely unacceptable to give Parliament any kind of veto over the negotiations. The Government then appeared to row back on which parts of the amendment were up for negotiation. 14 June 2018
Calum O’Byrne Mulligan Senior Account Executive
Predictably, blue-on-blue clashes broke out everywhere in the Commons, on the airwaves and on social media. If the new attempt at compromise fails to achieve the very tricky balancing act of satisfying Brexiteers AND rebels, the latter may conclude that they have been misled. Cue potential House of Cards moment. First the retabling of the amendment when the Bill returns to the Lords. Then an explosive Commons showdown in which the rebels might just have the numbers to defeat the PM. The result almost certainly would be an end to the what Brexiteers see as the PM’s trump card – a credible threat to ‘walk away’ and pursue ‘a no deal Brexit’. Anger from Pro-Brexit MPs and media impatient with the PM’s handling of Brexit would turn to fury. And finally, just possibly, a challenge to her leadership could follow. Hypothetical, yes, but it just might happen. This is why this compromise matters so much. EEA membership looks dead but Labour’s own Brexit divisions have been exposed A more welcome development from the perspective of the Government and the Brexiteers was the vote to reject membership of the European Economic Area (EEA) by 327 votes to 126. Such a comprehensive defeat will be hard to come back from and it has effectively brought an end to the so-called Norway option of staying in the single market.
Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelmaneditions.com | 020 3047 2177 | @edelmanUK