MAY SPEECH: DEADLOCK UNLOCKED? EDELMAN ANALYSIS 22 September 2017
Lucy is a Director at Edelman UK and Head of Brexit Advice. She was a cofounder and Deputy Director of the Remain campaign in the EU referendum. She is a former BBC journalist, covering the EU institutions in Brussels for four years. Lucy Thomas - Head of Brexit Advice Lucy.Thomas@Edelman.com
Pawel is a Brexit Analyst at Edelman. He is a respected expert in EU and UK political analysis from his time at the Open Europe think tank where he produced detailed research papers which informed government policy. Pawel Swidlicki – Brexit Analyst Pawel.Swidlicki@Edelman.com
Key takeaways Two year transition – or longer? The UK will seek a transition of around two years after March 2019. “Brexit delayed” was how one reporter characterised it, but businesses will be breathing a sigh of relief that the certainty they craved has at least in part been provided. EU Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier was quick to respond, praising the “constructive spirit” of the speech. He said a transition was in principle possible, but that all EU rules and mechanisms would apply throughout: from regulations and free movement, to continuing ECJ oversight. This was a tick-box speech which the Government hopes will answer calls from the EU to show “sufficient progress” has been made on the divorce bill, the Irish border and EU citizens’ rights. While no specific figure was given, Theresa May said the UK would honour its obligations and that the EU budget would not be left with any holes – largely taken to mean around €20bn to 2020. The tone was upbeat, with the “bright future” ahead referenced several times. Some will see this as Boris Johnson’s injection of optimism into the prevailing gloom. She called for “creativity and ambition” on both sides: a clear attempt to make the EU responsible for finding a mutually workable solution. The less-than-subtle branding of the speech: shared history; shared challenges; shared future. Some in the EU may not appreciate the attempt to drag them into what they see as the UK’s decision to leave. 22 Sept 2017
May also gave an emotional pitch to EU citizens in the UK that “we want you to stay” and “we value your contribution to our national life.” EU citizens’ rights: May stressed the independence of UK courts and that EU citizens’ rights would be fully incorporated into UK law, so Parliament couldn’t water anything down. She also revealed that the UK would “take into account” judgements of the European Court of Justice, in the hope that this would be enough to quell EU fears that ECJ oversight would be needed to ensure the UK followed the rules. Barnier’s response made no mention of ECJ, but said whatever UK enforcement was in place, had to be the same as across the EU. Future trade terms: there has been increasing discussion of whether the UK should pursue a Norway-style option (European Economic Area) or follow the Canada-EU Free Trade Agreement model. Theresa May said that neither was acceptable: adopting laws with no say over them (EEA) or overly restricting our mutual market access (Canada) would be unacceptable to the British people. No deal better than bad deal: while it didn’t feature in the speech, May confirmed that she still believed no deal would be better than a bad one in response to a question. Security: the offer of a deep and special security partnership made clear that the UK’s involvement in security and defence is no longer the bargaining chip it once was. The Sun’s Tom Newton-Dunn challenged the Prime Minister that some would see this as throwing away one of the UK’s strongest cards.
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