A Global Perspective on the US Elections

Given Donald J. Trump’s vague and inconsistent discourse both before and since the election, it is still early to foresee the implications his election as the 45th President of the United States will have on global politics and policy. Nonetheless, it is possible to deduct some features of Trump’s potential foreign policy.

President-elect Trump seems to be committed to abandon multilateralism, which has been the cornerstone of U.S. foreign policy since the collapse of the Soviet bloc.

Even though the U.S. seemed to deviate from this in security issues around the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, it was still committed to a multilateral approach in the trade arena.

Trump seems to imagine a new world order made of strong national states and regional powers engaging with each other in strategic and transactional interactions. According to Trump, the U.S. will still trade with other nations and intervene in international security and military operations, but only where the country can play a dominant role in trade or issues touch domestic interests. On the basis of this underlying rationale, we will take a look at the potential implications of a new foreign policy on global public affairs in the areas of security, climate change, trade and democracy.

SECURITY Team America will not be the world’s police, Donald Trump said during his campaign, stating that the U.S. was a net loser from protecting its allies. He called on allies to

commit more military resources, if they want continuous American support. Nevertheless, he has expressed willingness to sustain military engagement in the fight against terrorism, as he sees ISIS as a risk to the U.S. In the Middle East, Trump envisages a bigger role for Turkey, disregarding the increasing authoritarian stand of Erdogan’s administration. As he plans to decrease dependence on the Gulf’s oil, Trump doesn’t see any reason why the U.S. should have a strong presence in the region. He has said to retract the Iran nuclear deal, although the complex network of stakeholders involved might keep him from doing so.

In Asia, Trump plans to revise military alliances with Korea and Japan. This comes at a time when an assertive China is tipping the balance of powers in South East Asia, reviving longstanding territorial disputes with its neighbours and North Korea is showing aggressive displays of its nuclear power.

Trump has mentioned he prefers South East Asian countries to use nuclear deterrence instead of U.S. support to counterweight China and North Korea.

Trump has said he plans to reform NATO to ensure that all members share the cost.

European allies are worried about the potential implications of a smaller U.S. role within NATO, especially at a time at which Russia has adopted an aggressive stand in Eastern Europe, annexing Crimea and sponsoring pro-Russian separatist forces in Ukraine.

Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 0203 047 2000 | @edelmanUK

Given Trump’s friendliness towards Russian President Vladimir Putin, we might see him review sanctions against Russia and consider alignment on the countries’ positions in the Syrian civil war, where Russia supports the regime of Bashar Al Assad.

It is unclear what exactly the president-elect’s position is on the war on drugs. If Trump confirms earlier comments that he sees the problem in the countries that produce and commercialise drugs, he could trigger a new wave of tensions between the U.S. and some Latin American countries including Bolivia, Peru and Colombia (coca-cocaine producers), and Venezuela, El Salvador and Mexico (intermediaries). Relations with Venezuela and Bolivia are already tense after the countries’ leftist-populist leaders expelled the respective U.S. Ambassadors in 2008.

If Trump pursues the foreign policy outlined above, global geopolitical risk and instability could increase, particularly for companies working in the energy, infrastructure and financial/insurance sectors. In a highly fragmented international order, public affairs in multi-market environments will be even more complex and thorough political risk analyses will need to underpin any multimarket campaigns.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY Donald Trump’s victory came just a few days after the Paris Agreement entered into force.

During his campaign, Trump called man-made climate change a hoax and said he would cancel the Paris Agreement and other international efforts to address the issue.

Trump believes the U.S. shouldn't spend financial resources on climate change, but use them to ensure the world has clean water, eliminate diseases like malaria, increase food production, or develop alternative energy sources.

The U.S. pulling out of the Paris Agreement could trigger a spiral of defections after difficult negotiations to get China on board.

The consequences of a failure of this sort are unpredictable and would reverse decades of

multilateral efforts to tackle global warming.

The consequences for public affairs would be substantial: The commitment to tackle climate change sits at the core of many companies’ sustainability programmes and the green energy and tech industries would be impacted by a reversal in climate change policy, particularly given the current oil price. The oil and gas sectors as well as infrastructure would be the beneficiaries of changes as countries.

The links between China and Africa/Latin America might strengthen as a result of a change in environmental standards – China invests heavily in raw materials from these regions, but as many countries have environmental standards in accordance with the Paris Agreement and the Kyoto Protocol in place, Chinese investment hasn’t reached its full potential yet. The multilateral system in charge of climate change policy (UNDP, IPCC, etc.) might see its funding substantially reduced. Non-governmental actors, including business and activists will be vital to uphold progress and avoid the consequences of climate change.

TRADE Donald Trump’s proposals would fundamentally change international trade. The Republican Party has been historically sceptical of climate change and less committed to multilateralism in security issues, but when Bill Clinton signed NAFTA in 1993, one of the few bi-partisan policy consensuses in Washington was the commitment to promote free trade throughout the world. This policy mirrored the post-soviet expansion of the European single market. These two developments, together with growing economies in South East Asia, have been the main drivers of economic globalisation. As Trump has benefitted from the vote of the American white working class, allegedly the losers of globalisation, it is not a coincidence that his first priority is to attack NAFTA, even though analysts say cancelling the pact would hurt companies, including American manufacturers, significantly.

Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 0203 047 2000 | @edelmanUK

Other pending international trade agreements are also in jeopardy, including the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) between the U.S. and the European Union, and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) which would bring together the U.S. and eleven Pacific Rim nations. These agreements would have put the U.S. at the centre of a new impulse for economic globalisation. Thus, Trump’s intentions to move from multilateral to U.S.-dominated bilateral trade agreements is very telling of the anti-globalist stance of the president-elect.

The free trade agreements also have a security angle. For example, TPP was a key element of the Obama administration's strategy to build economic and security relations with Asian nations as a hedge to China's increasing clout in the region. TTIP would have played a similar role in strengthening NATO in the context of an aggressive Russian stance in Eastern Europe.

Free trade agreements, particularly those between blocs are very important for transnational companies who benefit from stable regulation and low tariffs across borders. If free trade agreements are the highways of globalisation, transnational companies are their vehicles. A world of free trade is a world of interconnected highways. A world of many bi-lateral agreements is a world of narrow streets. Under these conditions it will be crucial for public affairs practitioners to navigate very diverse multi-market environments.

DEMOCRACY

measures such as mass deportations or the surveillance of Muslims and Latinos.

Of course, it is likely that the strength of the democratic institutions in Europe and the U.S. will survive a populist wave. However, this might not be the case for young democracies.

In addition, Trump’s inward-looking approach might stop any U.S. attempts to support democratic movements abroad. This might reverse what has been called the third wave of democratisation in the developing world.

While companies do not need a liberal democracy as a basis to work, changes in free trade would make their engagement in public affairs more difficult, if media is censored and interests are not openly represented.

TO CLOSE… We know that Donald Trump is taking an antiglobalist stance on foreign policy by reducing the importance of political and economic multilateralism. We also know, however, that Trump is a populist leader. Populist leaders are very flexible in their discourses and they don’t necessarily stick to their campaign promises – many commentators have observed that it is difficult to know what Trump’s core belief system is based on his election platform. Even if that would be the case, the structural forces shaping globalisation are not easy to reverse, not even for the President of the U.S. Nonetheless, globalisation is facing real challenges around the world and public affairs engagement will have to adapt to these changes.

Donald Trump’s election could be interpreted as a sign of the weakening of the institutions of liberal democracy. Trump is a populist choice and has shown disregard for many of the key principles of liberal democracy. Trump mirrors the rise of right-wing and left-wing populists in Europe, Latin America and even the Philippines. These leaders are perceived to value less liberal principles such as the rule of law, checks and balances and human rights.

This explains why Trump has proposed

Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 0203 047 2000 | @edelmanUK

The election of Donald J. Trump as the 45th President of the United States sent shockwaves around the globe as many countries were expecting a Democratic win.

Reactions have varied between countries and regions, but also within countries where populist movements welcomed Trump’s election, while moderately and liberally minded people in the centreground disapproved.

North America: The U.S. is the single most important trading partner for Canada, and much of the initial reaction focused on the stability of that relationship. Trade and energy will be key topics in the near future – Canada has indicated it would be open to a conversation about NAFTA and both Canadian PM Justin Trudeau and Donald Trump support the Keystone pipeline. Both the Trudeau and provincial governments will focus on minimising any negative economic impact, staying focused on specific objectives and not allowing domestic politics to bleed into either nation.

Latin America: Reactions to Trump’s victory ranged from pessimistic to cautious across Latin America. Mexico suffered a political and economic shock after Trump’s openly antiMexican and anti-immigrant rhetoric.

Commentators don’t expect Trump to deliver on his promise to build a wall along the border, but fear a crackdown on remittances which would have a significant economic impact on Mexico.

Argentina’s and Brazil’s centre-right governments were disappointed with the result having cultivated close relationships with the Obama administration. Given Trump’s stance on free trade agreements, they see slim chances to increase trade and attract FDI. Interestingly, although they oppose Trump’s xenophobic remarks, leftist populists such as the Presidents of Ecuador and Bolivia expressed hope that the new administration will be more respectful of their internal affairs.

They feel endorsed in their negative views on free trade and globalisation.

Colombia’s President Santos reacted cautiously as Trump’s victory might derail

peace talks between the current government and the FARC rebels. Opponents of the peace agreement welcomed this – they see the agreement as too favourable to the FARC and the leftist regimes that supported the peace talks, Venezuela and Cuba.

The Cuban government fears that Trump could reverse the progress made by Obama in starting to normalise U.S.-Cuban relations.

Europe: European officials are scratching their heads trying to understand what a Trump presidency could mean for the EU. Observers agree that the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) will now be buried, and campaign threats of protectionist measures could further harm future EU-U.S. trade relations. Joint efforts to address energy security and climate change may also be compromised.

There is, however, hope that Trump’s election will serve as a second shock (after the Brexit referendum), forcing EU leaders to recognise the trend of rising levels of populism, nationalism and xenophobia across many European countries – a trend which may well result in populist surges in elections in 2017.

France fears seeing right-wing party National Front and its leader Marine Le Pen win, while Germany’s AfD is hoping to enter the German parliament. Meanwhile, Italy’s PM Mario Renzi nervously awaits an upcoming constitutional referendum in December. Speaking of Germany, people expressed a feeling of uneasiness as Trump’s rhetoric has been a bad reminder of a not too distant past. This was reflected in Chancellor Merkel’s response who offered Trump a close partnership – on the condition of respecting human rights, the dignity of man and democracy.

The United Kingdom has always considered the U.S. as its closest ally, but Donald Trump’s isolationist vision will worry the British Government – not least his lack of commitment to NATO.

Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 0203 047 2000 | @edelmanUK

There are also huge dangers to the West’s collective security if Trump aligns too closely to Russia and Vladimir Putin. Sharing borders with Russia and watching its annexation of Crimea in 2014, that is a worry keeping the Baltic states (Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia) up at night.

Asia: The future of free trade and geo-political instability are the most pressing matter of concern in the region. A shift towards an inward-looking foreign policy and away from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) could destabilise the region.

Although not a member of TPP, China worries about potential U.S. trade-barriers, further WTO disputes and the U.S. branding it a currency manipulator. The public view in Japan has been generally negative, but Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has expressed willingness to cooperate to maintain security and stability of the Asia-Pacific region. Currently facing an economic slowdown, South Korea is particularly concerned about its economic ties and support from the U.S. in its conflict with North Korea. South East Asian Singapore, Malaysia and Vietnam will be hit hard if Trump indeed brings TPP to a halt.

A country with a large Muslim population, public opinion in Indonesia has been tense, responding to Trump’s anti-Islam rhetoric. The government has expressed concerns about a potential decrease in U.S. trade and investment in the country.

Unsurprisingly, Philippine’s populist leader Rodrigo Duterte, who previously clashed with the Obama administration over human rights issues, has enthusiastically congratulated Trump and expressed his willingness to establish a relationship of mutual respect and trust.

governments have adopted a wait and see approach with respect to the president-elect.

The rhetoric used in the election campaign by Trump is widely viewed by Arab governments as tailored for the domestic consumption of Americans, rather than directly linked to foreign countries. As a result, numerous Arab leaders (in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain, Jordan, Lebanon and others) have extended an open hand to work with Trump.

Politically, issues that are strategically important to Arab allies of the U.S. include Iran’s re-entering the international community, America’s lukewarm support of Palestinians and backing of Israel, U.S. hesitation to intervene in a more pronounced manner in Syria, the ongoing conflict in Yemen and the security implications of ISIS. On the economic front, Trump is expected to follow in the path of previous American administrations strengthening commercial ties with the Arab world that will help create jobs and spur economic growth in the US.

Australia: The reaction in Australia has been one of caution. Prime Minister Turnbull – who phoned Donald Trump to congratulate him – has already discussed the U.S. military presence in the Asia Pacific with the next President and implored him to rethink his opposition to the Trans Pacific Partnership, of which Australia is a member.

Australia is worried that a Trump Administration may abandon the Asia-Pacific, where it performs a vital function as a counterweight to China’s growing ambitions.

There are also fears of a Trump-led trade war with China, Australia’s biggest trading partner.

Middle East: Though his election campaign dismayed many in the Arab world, Donald Trump is unlikely to implement radical foreign or economic policy shifts that would alter strategic alliances with allies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE or impede American interests in the Middle East. Though some notable Arab figures in the business community in Dubai have been openly critical of Trump, Arab

Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 0203 047 2000 | @edelmanUK

As with the rest of the world, in Canada the election of Donald J. Trump came as a shock.

From arm-chair pundits to those at the highest levels of business and government, a Democratic sweep seemed a foregone conclusion.

It is likely that the Keystone pipeline will again become a significant bilateral issue and a media barometer for the state of the relationship between Trudeau and Trump.

Both leaders support the pipeline and the anticipation is that it will be approved.

The United States is the single most important trading partner for Canada, and much of the reaction following the initial shock of the election of Trump himself and Republican majorities in the House and Senate focused on the stability of that relationship. Canada’s Prime Minister reached out to President-elect Trump and, per media reports, the two had a positive albeit brief conversation by phone.

Donald Trump’s election has already seen an impact on the politics of the Conservative Party of Canada and their upcoming leadership race. One candidate in particular, who has embraced his politics through her campaign, celebrated his election on Tuesday night. Trump’s brand of populist nativism will find both admirers and detractors, as with most other nations around the world.

Given the importance of the bilateral relationship to the Canadian economy and the overall quality of life of Canadians, building a strong working relationship with the incoming administration will be the top priority for the Canadian government. Canadian governments have also learned over many years the critical role Congress plays and will be working hard to build relationships with the Senate and House.

Many Canadians fondly remember the memories of friendships between Bill Clinton and Jean Chretien in the 90’s as well as Ronald Reagan and Brian Mulroney in the 1980’s. The relationship between Barack Obama and Justin Trudeau was seen as fitting this mold.

The relationship between Donald Trump and Justin Trudeau may more likely resemble the relationship between Richard Nixon and Pierre Trudeau (father of the current Prime Minister) during the 1970’s; more transactional and while divergent on broad values and issues, not necessarily hostile to one another.

Trump’s campaign commitments on trade and the economy are all being carefully examined.

Canada’s Ambassador to the United States, David MacNaughton, recently said in an interview that Canada would be open to a conversation around NAFTA. That kind of openness to dealing with the incoming administration, combined with the assiduous avoidance by Prime Minister Trudeau of commentary on the election, particularly criticism of Donald Trump, is hoped to ease the transition between administrations.

Indeed, the prevalent view among academics, business leaders and government is that the election of Donald Trump need not lead to a break in relations. In some areas, there may in fact be areas of benefit. The incoming Trump Administration may be willing to re-engage on issues of bi-lateral trade as opposed to multi-lateral agreements favored by his soon to be predecessor.

The United States and Canada enjoy the largest undefended border in the world and one of the closest relationships, politically, socially, and economically between nations in human history. This friendship predates and will extend past the Trump Presidency, while the goal of the Trudeau government as well as provincial governments will be to minimize any negative economic impact, staying focused on specific objectives and not allowing domestic politics to bleed into either nation.

Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 0203 047 2000 | @edelmanUK

Argentina woke up on Wednesday 9th with the unexpected news of Donald J. Trump’s winning the presidential elections in the United States. In light of the facts, most of the suppositions and polls were proven wrong, and so was the Argentinian government’s foreign policy strategy.

Since in office, Mauricio Macri’s administration has worked to fulfil the campaign promise of opening Argentina to the world, focusing especially on Europe and the United States.

This strategy was carried out by publicly approaching the Obama administration, with its peak episode being the President’s visit to our country, where he was warmly received.

This “trust show-off” was not only meant to position Argentina as a more relevant global player, but was specifically intended to be a key message to foreign private investors to come to do business in Argentina.

On a daily basis, instances of the common agenda were driven by Government officers known for being close to different American public and private actors, as well as international institutions such as the United Nations. Nevertheless, this “direct line” to the U.S. always ran to Democratic party members, and lacking in contact with Republican representatives, even though elections were around the corner. Indeed, as most of the region’s presidencies, Argentina’s was in favour of Hillary Clinton and expected her victory that would have guaranteed continuity of U.S. policies towards Latin America.

waiting to see what comes next. The day following the elections, the market started with an almost 5% drop, yet recovering throughout the day to close at a 0.54% loss.

Meanwhile, as the Government was confident that free trade negotiations were to be continued under Hillary Clinton’s presidency, this possibility is now clearly under threat.

Commodity producers are quite concerned about potential protectionist policies that might reduce commercialization levels, even though the U.S. retraction could generate or extend business opportunities in other markets.

In this context, the United States will remain a key player in Argentine politics and economy, but it is uncertain where the country will be placed in this new international landscape.

Surely, some treaties will be renegotiated and relationships rebuilt. Implications for finance, exports and direct foreign investment, among other sectors, will depend on how Mauricio Macri engages with Washington.

Even when no one can exactly tell or predict what measures will be taken in the future, it is clear that Argentina’s Government needs to redirect and strengthen ties with a new administration that, based on Donald Trump’s campaign speeches, will have a different position than its predecessors.

Besides the importance of political and business relations, since December, Argentina has been issuing public debt for over 40 billion dollars, out of which more than 50% is held by U.S. institutions. The public deficit is still around 5.5 points and being financed through domestic and foreign borrowing. This means that a feasible increase of rates by the Federal Reserve - as expected from the Trump administration - would force Alfonso Prat Gay (Minister of Economy) to restructure the country’s financial and economic plans for the next years. By first reaction, Merval – the Argentine stock market – was surprised and is

Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 0203 047 2000 | @edelmanUK

The Brazilian market reacted to the election of Donald J. Trump with a valuation of 2.45% of the exchange rate of Dollar/Real, with one Dollar being sold by BRL 3.245 and with the Brazilian Stock Exchange Bovespa operating with a decrease higher than 3%.

The Brazilian president Michel Temer considered the tone of Trump’s first speech “moderate” and a nod to “union”. Temer declared in a radio interview that Trump’s election would not affect the relationship between both countries: “I am sure that nothing will change in the relationship BrazilUSA” once “this relation, as with other countries, is institutional, in other words, from State to State”.

Brazilian analysts’ opinions regarding the Brazil-U.S. relationship are divided. Some are more pessimistic, but most agree that the Brazilian market will be minimally affected by Trump’s measures, as South America and Brazil were not treated as priorities during his campaign. However, the effects of his election throughout the world, in addition to his unpredictability and protectionism, may have some impact on the Brazilian economy.

Gesner Oliveira, a Brazilian economist and consultant, worries that “uncertainty makes investors concentrate their investments in lower risk assets. That means a capital flight from riskier markets, such as Brazil”.

However, she expects a negative effect on Central America, which has a large migratory flow to the United States and is the target of the anti-immigration policies Trump proposed on the campaign trail.

Experts in Brazil-USA relations say that the bond among the two countries depends in great measure on the chemistry between its leaders, regardless of their parties or ideologies. On the Brazilian side, there certainly is interest to form a closer bond with the United States. In an interview to BBC Brazil in July, the Brazilian Ambassador in Washington, Sérgio Amaral, said that Temer’s government would invest in the relationships with the five main global powers, the U.S., China, Russia, France and the United Kingdom.

The Brazilian market presented a first pessimistic reaction to Trump’s election.

Future effects will largely depend on Trump’s next announcements and the tone of his future speeches as president-elect and president. The country represented a low priority in Trumps campaign agenda and experts understand that there will unlikely be major changes in the bilateral agenda of both countries.

Brazil’s former Ambassador to the United States (1999-2014), Rubens Barbosa, concluded that “relations are going well, there is transit of people, and there is not any factor that pushes it to the next level. What can happen, if Trump actions what he said during the electoral campaign, is that some sectors that are not very competitive in the United States, such as steel and ethanol, receive a higher protection, damaging Brazilian exports”, but he considers this possibility unlikely.

Monica Herz, professor of the International Relations Institute of PUC-Rio, foresees that Trump’s government will not worsen the relations of the United States with Brazil.

Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 0203 047 2000 | @edelmanUK

Donald J. Trump´s victory in the U.S. presidential election came as a big surprise to many since the vast majority of Mexican political analysts and key opinion leaders expected that Hillary Clinton would win the election.

finance it.

The Mexican peso has experienced high volatility in the last days, but the financial market has started to stabilize.

His victory has brought uncertainty in several strategic areas for Mexico and has been the main topic on the public agenda in the last days.

Federal authorities have assumed a calm tone when addressing media on potential repercussions of Trump´s election. President Enrique Peña Nieto said he called Donald Trump to congratulate him on his victory and would welcome a meeting with him to address the bilateral relationship and work on a joint agenda covering security, prosperity and cooperation. He said Trump´s election as president represented a challenge, but also an opportunity.

TRADE There is a strong interdependence in this key area of economic activity between both nations, as the U.S. is Mexico´s primary trading partner and Mexico is the second largest trading partner of the U.S. Discussions in Mexico are centered on the possibility of the United States pulling out of NAFTA and the restriction of Mexican exports through high taxation that Trump proposed during his campaign. Mexico hopes that the Trump administration won’t get rid of a 20year-strong commercial relationship and expects American multinational corporations, as well as small and medium-sized enterprises, that benefit from the agreement to raise their voices. However, in case the U.S. actually pulls out of NAFTA, Mexico will face a scenario for which it is not prepared – the country then have to open new trade markets to decrease its dependency on the U.S.

FEDERAL AUTHORITIES

President of the Mexican Federal Bank and the Minister of Finance said that Mexico is prepared to face this new economic scenario and declared they do not expect significant risks in the short term. They stated that the behavior of the U.S. in economic matters is uncertain at this point, and added that they have prepared a set of public policies to be put in place if needed.

Expert analysts consider it too soon to have certainty regarding the impact of Trump´s election on Mexico. Many believe there will be a difference between what Trump promised during his campaign and what he will actually be able to implement once in office.

ECONOMY The possibility of an inhibition or block of immigrants´ remittances is of great concern since it is a vital source of income for Mexico.

The income from remittances is greater than that from oil exports, foreign investment and tourism, with $25 billion dollars in remittances being reported last year.

Mexican authorities have assured the public that the country will not pay for the border wall that Trump repeatedly addressed during his campaign, however, there is concern that immigrants´ remittances will be used to

Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 0203 047 2000 | @edelmanUK

Donald J. Trump’s election could mean a new sense of hope in Brussels The astonishing outcome of the US presidential election was met in Brussels with a certain feeling of a déjà vu. It also inspired a profound sense of hope for many European leaders. Not President Obama’s brand of hope, mind you, but a more concerned kind of hope. In congratulating Trump on his election, European Council President Donald Tusk and Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker expressed their shared hope that America “will continue to invest in its partnerships with friends and allies, to help make our citizens and the people of the world more secure and more prosperous”. In the same vein, European Parliament President Martin Schulz declared that “the world hopes for an outward-looking presidency aiming at shaping international relations and upholding the values of freedom and democracy.

Perhaps nobody expressed it better than BusinessEurope’s President, Ms. Marcegaglia, who stressed that because “the 45th President of the US is an entrepreneur, we hope that his decisions will be driven by political and economic reason.” Such are the great expectations that Trump’s victory are generating in Brussels.

hope within Brussels circles that Trump will come to terms with reality at some point, and reconsider some of his campaign promises, which were less popular and thought to be unrealistic.

There is also hope that Trump’s election will have the impact of a second electroshock (after the Brexit vote), forcing EU leaders to recognise the dangerously growing distrust towards EU institutions – and towards the idea of European integration itself. The rising levels of populism, nationalism, and xenophobia that we are seeing across most European countries are all surfing a dangerous wave of economic and social resentment, institutional distrust, and plain fear.

EU leaders must seriously reconsider their priorities and, above all, how they communicate to and engage with European citizens, to address their fears and worries.

Clearly, Brussels-based bureaucrats are not the best spokespeople to explain to a Portuguese taxi driver or bank cashier – who may have just lost their job – how the Digital Single Market will improve their lives. How many wake up calls will European leaders need before all hope of preventing the disintegration of the EU is lost?

European officials are scratching their heads to try to understand what a Trump presidency means for the EU and, in particular, what it means for the future of some major dossiers currently on the table. Not much is known about Trump’s future policies in many areas, and proposals expressed so far on a few topics are not really encouraging. Most observers seem to agree the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership is now dead and buried, and campaign threats of protectionist measures could further harm future EU-U.S. trade relations. Joint efforts to address energy security and climate change may also be compromised. Overall, there is a fear that EU-U.S. relations may be downgraded to a purely transactional relationship, less motivated by common values and objectives. Of course, there is high

Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 0203 047 2000 | @edelmanUK

The U.S. Presidential race has had a special echo in France and received huge attention from French media and political leaders ahead of the next Presidential election in France in April 2017.

The victory of Donald Trump is perceived as a surprise and a shock in France. The French public opinion was clearly supportive of Hillary Clinton. The idea that the American people could vote for a woman was considered as a great change of improvement all over the world. In the French media, everyone pointed out the fact that it would be very difficult for Trump to win this election.

His image was highly damaged in the French media.

Right after the victory of Donald Trump, all candidates for the French presidential election shared their analysis and their thoughts of the impacts for the French campaign. For several years, France has had to face a deep crisis of trust between the general public and the elites. During the last 20 years, no government has ever managed to be reelected. A large majority of the French people reject globalisation and ask for more protection and stronger borders. The rise of the National Front and its leader Marine Le Pen is seen as a political consequence of this lack of trust in French political leaders and lack of confidence in their capabilities to fix French economic challenges and social issues.

The fear of seeing the Front National win is high and Marine Le Pen was the first person to publicly congratulate Donald Trump in France.

for months, François Fillon, former Prime Minister of President Nicolas Sarkozy, won the first round and will compete against Alain Juppe (the poll’s and media’s favourite candidate) in the second round. Former president Nicolas Sarkozy has been voted out of the race.

Regarding Trump’s election it’s also important to note that with COP22 just finished in Morocco, the French Government is worried about the potential future decisions Donald Trump could make about the COP21 agreement follow-up, as this conference had been considered a huge success for the French government.

After Brexit, the election of Donald Trump is seen as a continuum in Western democracies, the start of a new political cycle, and the next milestone could be the election of Marine Le Pen. Since the election, the future of France and the United States has been linked together closer than ever.

On the one hand, the socialist party is in a very difficult position as the President François Hollande has not yet decided if he will be candidate or not. At the same time, Emmanuel Macron, former Minister of Economy (who left the Government a few months ago), decided to announce his candidacy athough he does not have the support of any political party. On the other hand, the first round of the “primary” election of the right wing party “Les Républicains” took place last weekend.

Contrary to what the polls have been saying

Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 0203 047 2000 | @edelmanUK

Germany has been shaken to the core by the election of Donald J. Trump.

Germany has a very emotional relationship with the United States. There are a lot of shared moments in history that have shaped both nations: America decided to help rebuild Germany after World War 2, it supported and protected Germany during the Cold War and it embraced the German reunification in 1990, thus ending the Cold War. Our close transatlantic partnership is one of the very foundations of Germany as a nation.

After Trump’s election this foundation has been shaken to the core – and this is why: During the last 25 years, since the fall of the wall, Germans have lived through a period of peace and prosperity. Economic and security collaboration with the United States was a corner stone of the politics of that era.

Trump’s ideas on renegotiating transatlantic trade and reshaping collaborative security cooperations are – at the very least – unpredictable. And so Germans are alarmed by what looks like a much more uncertain and different future partnership with the incoming administration.

reaction. Chancellor Merkel congratulated Trump on his election and offered him a close partnership, explicitly calling out that this is based on the condition of respecting human rights, the dignity of man and democracy.

Merkel even posted that statement on her official Facebook account.

Ursula von der Leyen, German Defence Minister and a close Merkel ally, came out early in the morning and said that she was “very shocked”. This is a very unusual statement from a German cabinet member towards an election in an ally country and a clear indication that directly after this USelection, Germany is indeed shaken to the core.

Germany is a consensus-oriented nation and democracy. Donald Trump’s aggressive and intentionally polarizing campaign is on the opposite side of we what tend to strive for.

From a German perspective, his unconventional behaviour would be unthinkable for a public figure – especially in politics – and creates a continuously deepening feeling of estrangement.

When it comes to Trump, Germans get a bad case of ‘been there, done that’. From our point of view, his plans for building a wall and his threats of imprisoning opponents are a bad reminder of a not too distant past and they do not resonate well with a nation trying to learn from this past in order to shape a better future.

This general reflected in

feeling of uneasiness was the German government’s

Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 0203 047 2000 | @edelmanUK

The Italian government is more exposed than many other European partners to a negative backlash after Donald J. Trump’s victory.

Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has developed a strong relationship with Barack Obama, especially after the glittering last Official White House dinner of his presidency in October. Also, Matteo Renzi, together with his entire Democrat party, has been a vocal supporter of Hillary Clinton, while other European governments have kept a more prudent position. The Renzi government’s embarassment may be an obstacle in building a functioning personal relationship with the new American President, though Italy is regarded as one of the staunchest European allies of the U.S. Renzi further fears the wave of “electoral revolts” in the West might break on his own beach: polls for an upcoming Constitutional referendum on December 4th are shaky. A loss in the referendum would likely undermine his government. At the same time, Renzi’s rivals, and especially the anti-establishment Movimento 5 Stelle, are celebrating – covertly or overtly – Trump’s victory, and are calling for a similar “anti-establishment revolt” in Italy.

Simultaneously, Italy has an uncomfortable position within Europe. Renzi has called for the difficult reform of European economic and political governance, which still remains unlikely despite positive opinions of some influencers (e.g. Financial Times). But young Renzi may dust off his original position as the first supporter of political reforms, to buttress his image as the original “anti-establishment demolition man”.

great boost for many Italian manufacturing companies (small and medium size, especially) which are currently positioned in the middle of a difficult “premium market” to avoid competition with China.

The TTIP is now almost certainly doomed, with negative consequences for the positioning of Italian companies in many traditional sectors (clothes, shoes, furniture, and many outlets with a strong design and a “made in Italy” connotation). On the other hand, a Trump presidency could lead to an ease on Western sanctions against Russia; and would be a promising development for other Italian sectors of the economy (agriculture and food), which are currently badly hit by the sanctions against Russia, as the have been impacting exports (recent losses have been estimated at USD 4.3 billion).

Another positive outcome for the economy could come from a possible boom in defence spending: a Trump presidency will press its European counterparts to “share the burden” of the NATO defense budget (at least 2 per cent of GDP). Italy would be well positioned for such a development, having one of the world’s largest companies in the defence and aerospace sector, Leonardo Finmeccanica (under state control), and in general a structured industry and production chain in the defence and aerospace sector, with European industrial ties. Similarly, Italy’s large construction companies with wide international experience could seek to join Trump’s announced priorities to improve infrastructure projects.

Any change in U.S. immigration policy will also be closely watched in Italy, which has to cope with a large influx of illegal immigrants itself.

Italy has been one of the few European countries with a solid consensus on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. A free trade area between Europe and the United States would have been a

Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 0203 047 2000 | @edelmanUK

Donald J. Trump’s victory was met with caution and a certain degree of surprise in Spain.

Initial political reactions were conflicting: Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy congratulated Trump via telegram and on Twitter, emphasizing his desire to strengthen the ties between the two countries. Other political parties, however, such as the PSOE and Podemos, were quick to dub the election outcome bad news, taking a highly critical stance on the future President of the United States of America. All major Spanish news outlets, which have provided extensive coverage of the elections, reported on the Republican candidate’s triumph.

Dailies like the clearly pro-Democrat El País responded with evident reservations and a deeply pessimistic tone. This highly influential publication referred to the result as “dreadful news for the world’s democrats” and “a source of satisfaction and opportunity for the enemies of democracy”. According to El País, “the shock suffered by Democrat supporters in the US is echoed in the European capitals, which run the risk of being abandoned by Washington at a highly complex time in the region’s history, as it faces a series of external threats and a serious internal identity crisis.”

The newspaper predicts economic instability and political uncertainty ahead, “especially if Trump is quick to implement the protectionist agenda he used to lure in voters”.

international affairs are concerned, “the world of yesterday is now a thing of the past”, in a nod to the title of Austrian writer Stefan Zweig’s memoir. “With Donald Trump as President, all we know is that nothing will stay the same”. “Europeans, like the rest of the world, are now faced with a huge question mark (and a major challenge) because there is no reason to believe that transatlantic relations, including NATO, will be as we know them”. As for the feeling of vertigo, Palacio put it this way: “Trump is President: a new world is born”.

From an economic perspective, the markets took Donald Trump’s victory in their stride, and the reaction was moderate. The Ibex 35 closed slightly down, by 0.40%, on November 9th, substantially less than the 12.35% it plummeted to after the Brexit referendum results had been announced. Spain’s sovereign credit spread (versus the German bond) tightened by over 2 basis points to 107.7, lower than spreads in surrounding countries such as Italy.

Spain’s former foreign minister Ana Palacio was among the first political analysts to comment on the result, summing up her reaction in three words: bewilderment, uncertainty and vertigo. Bewilderment, she said, because of how “monumentally wrong” the polls were, just as they were for Brexit and the Colombia referendum. As Palacio sees it, the results point to deep changes in society “and a painful truth: a widening schism between the ruling classes and ordinary citizens,” a situation already revealed by the conclusions of the latest Edelman Trust Barometer. Uncertainty, she explained, will be the new normal, because as far as

Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 0203 047 2000 | @edelmanUK

So, the US is to move from a Commander-inChief to an Entertainer-in-Chief.

I gave a rueful laugh when I heard this epitaph used by the leader of the UK Republicans Abroad during an interview on Radio 4 in the early hours of Wednesday 9th November as she celebrated Donald Trump’s victory. Originally, of course, it was coined by Chris Christie, the Governor of New Jersey, to mock Mr Trump’s candidacy.

When the announcement came in the early hours of Wednesday morning it was too late for the published UK print media to react.

However, the news channels and radio waves were broadly in agreement: this was an affront to liberal democracy. They also speculated that his desire to be an isolationist would be damaging to our ‘special’ relationship. And whilst this was going on, the markets tumbled, although they have steadied since.

Prime Minister Theresa May had been openly critical of some of Trump’s electioneering statements and many feel her initial message to his victory was lukewarm. However, with the Article 50 trigger looming, which will take us firmly on the road to Brexit, the UK needs the U.S. as a trading partner.

As a former UK public sector specialist with over 35 years’ experience advising Ministers and Prime Ministers on a vast range of communications issues, I can assure you that Whitehall officials will be doing a lot of work behind-the-scenes and our Ambassador in Washington will also be preparing and ensuring he makes contact with the right people within the new Trump Administration.

These relationships are vital and help oil the wheels.

visions of building a different type of society, Republicans rather set about repealing and undoing the work of their opponents in office.

Donald Trump has suggested that his priority will be to do something similar – “erasing” the Obama presidency.

Britain has always presented itself as the bridge between the U.S. and Europe, but with Brexit this is no longer possible. There is a danger that Trump may go straight to Berlin and negotiate directly with the Germans, but he has made supportive statements about Brexit and warmly congratulated the British people for their decision. Much will depend on how Theresa May and Donald Trump get on.

Nigel Farage, Interim Leader of the UKIP (United Kingdom Independence Party), and arch anti-European was not only prominent during Trump’s election campaign in the U.S. he was also the first British politician to travel to the U.S. to congratulate Trump in person. It is difficult to see what official role Farage could play in our relationship with the U.S. Many Brexiters in the Cabinet believe that Trump will offer the UK the best chance of new trade deals, something that president Obama was unhelpful on. The Foreign Secretary, Boris Johnson has also made positive comments about Trump’s success.

My most recent experience at the Foreign Office tells me two things. First, there is a widely held view in Whitehall about American presidencies. It is thought that while Democrats take office armed with policies and

Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 0203 047 2000 | @edelmanUK

Donald Trump has made it clear that he will put America first.

TRADE Trump’s vision for trade makes no mention of the UK or Europe. He concentrates on NAFTA and China. His threat to impose a 45% tariff on Chinese goods is worrying. China and U.S. relations matter for the world; they are two of the strongest global economies and if they enter into a trade war there could potentially be repercussions for everyone.

DEFENCE AND SECURITY These have been areas of common ground for the UK and U.S. in the past. The U.S. has been one of the strongest intelligence-sharing partners and we have worked together militarily and have consensus on nuclear weapons.

between their two countries. The US is by far the largest investor in the region and was a major force behind the Peace treaty.

The implications of Trump’s Presidency are huge and largely unknown, and there is every possibility that once he is installed in the Oval Office he may not fulfil all his election promises. His priorities may have to change due to external factors. The world is littered with World Leaders who campaign on domestic issues, only to find they have to deal with international affairs.

Much of the world looks to America for guidance, financial support and the upholding of certain values. It will be interesting to see if he will maintain that iconic position for the United States, or whether it will it all unravel?

The World watches and waits.

Trump’s statements on NATO have been stinging. His threat to withdraw support for countries who are not paying their dues is worrying. His eagerness to use torture could hamper future intelligence relationships, and closeness to Russia and Vladimir Putin are dangerous to the West’s collective security.

He has also indicated he is willing to renege on the Iran nuclear deal, something that the UK is very committed to and spent a lot of diplomatic time on.

There is hope that once he gets into Office he will quickly realise that allies, particularly NATO countries, are important.

Trump has made much about his Scottish connections, his mother was Scottish and he owns two golf courses there. Nicola Sturgeon, First Minster of Scotland, warned of ‘real anxiety’ after Trump’s victory and has been vociferous about her opposition to him.

The political leaders of Northern Ireland were quick to remind Trump of the historical links

Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 0203 047 2000 | @edelmanUK

America under Trump – it’s time for South Africans to make South Africa great again The majority of global political experts and media houses predicted a Hillary Clinton victory but were sorely disappointed when Trump pulled a surprising victory out of the bag. Perhaps this is the reason why, since Donald Trump’s astonishing victory, it’s hard to find any positive news coverage praising Trump for a race well run or showing any optimism for the future of America and the world.

Trumps victory has resulted in a singular global outlook for the future. That is uncertainty. As the result was announced, the South African rand weakened steadily due to shaken investor confidence and heightened indecision. There’s very little doubt that South Africa could slip into a negative trade market as local and international investors turn to safer markets and investment instruments to protect themselves from any uncertainty.

The short-term impact of Trump’s victory has already pushed the gold price as investors look to the precious metal for protection from the impending volatility. The rand on the other hand will reap the benefits of the weaker dollar – this will be short lived. As the dollar strengthens, there’ll be a new wave of volatility for the South Africa currency.

The reality is that just like the results of the U.S. election, nobody is able to predict exactly what will happen to the South African markets when Trump takes control of the U.S. government on 20 January 2017. New risks and opportunities will certainly emerge but it might be difficult for South Africa to maintain solid economic growth.

Many political and economic analysts believe that Trump will turn his focus inwards. His presidency will deliver South Africa with the same level of economic uncertainty as Brexit did earlier this year. Trump has made it clear

that he will put America first in every international negotiation. It is important to note that this inward-looking approach may cause damage to international trade relationships leaving emerging economies like South Africa open to serious economic challenges.

The African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) trade agreement may come under severe pressure. It wavers the import levies on approximately 7,000 products from 39 African countries. Trump has been quite vocal about his intentions to strengthen America’s domestic manufacturing businesses, which means that he may add higher import duties to these products.

Given the impending challenges, now is the perfect time for South Africa to look inward, too. Economic vulnerabilities such as the downgrade to junk combined with the geographical challenges like the persisting drought is putting a damper on economic growth. That doesn’t mean that all is lost. By implementing economic and structural reforms to address the challenges of corruption and infrastructure inadequacies, South Africa can position itself as in international destination of choice and the gateway into Africa.

While the situation in the United States has the potential to derail our emerging economy, it is the responsibility of every South African to ensure that we protect our democracy and move our economy forward. This is the moment that our collective resilience, our diverse ideas and our ability to work together must be used to overcome the unpredictability. It is time that our political and economic leaders on both sides of the fence stand together and show true leadership.

Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 0203 047 2000 | @edelmanUK

Though his election campaign dismayed many in the Arab world, Donald J. Trump is unlikely to implement radical foreign or economic policy shifts that would alter strategic alliances with allies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE or impede American interests in the Middle East.

While Arab government relationships have varied in strength with past U.S. presidents, be they Republican or Democrat, ultimately the national interests of countries have determined the course of a relationship with each administration in office.

Though some notable Arab figures in the business community in Dubai have been openly critical of Trump, Arab governments have adopted a wait and see approach with respect to the president-elect. Numerous Arab leaders (in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain, Jordan, Lebanon and others) have extended an open hand to work with Trump.

The rhetoric used in the election campaign by Trump is widely viewed by Arab governments as tailored for the domestic consumption of Americans, rather than directly linked to foreign countries. Invariably, the opinion is that once he assumes office, Trump is a businessman who is unlikely to make radical changes that endanger U.S. commercial interests and will move to the center, solidifying ties with the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and the wider region.

That said, Trump’s retaining of Walid Phares during the election campaign as a foreign policy advisor and his potential appointment to the new administration, could have negative implications (at a political not necessarily commercial level) moving forward given his neoconservative leanings and ardent antiMuslim views. Phares moved to the U.S. from Lebanon where he took part in the country’s 15year civil war as a member of a radical Christian militia. It is worth noting that previous presidents, like George W. Bush have retained similar advisors (like John Bolton, Elliot Abrams) with little material impact on the commercial front with Arab allies.

Politically, issues that are strategically important to Arab allies of the US, include Iran’s reentering the international community, America’s lukewarm support of Palestinians and backing

of Israel, U.S. hesitation to intervene in a more pronounced manner in Syria, the ongoing conflict in Yemen and the security implications of ISIS. On the economic front, Trump is expected to follow in the path of previous American administrations strengthening commercial ties with the Arab world that will help create jobs and spur economic growth in the U.S. Though the signing of the Iran accord with the U.S., Europe and Russia angered Gulf countries (including the UAE and Saudi Arabia), it has not adversely impacted American businesses operating in the region. American businesses do however have to mute any public expression of entering the Iranian market if they are heavily vested in the UAE or Saudi Arabia to avoid risk of a backlash.

In 2002, the backing of Israel’s military offensive against Palestinians by the Bush administration adversely impacted the perception of the U.S. across the entire Arab world, leading to a wide scale grassroots boycott of American fast-food companies. On the surface, governments of the region including the UAE and Saudi Arabia were forced to acknowledge growing popular resentment. However, while they may not have officially endorsed the boycotts, they left it to the commercial businesses to counter them – and as a pressure valve allowed citizens to demonstrate openly. Still, there was no measurable risk to Westerners in the UAE as a result of the regional political environment or U.S. foreign policy.

Though the substance of U.S. policies may have been at odds with the Arab populous with respect to the invasion of Iraq, there was no tangible impact as a result of that on businesses operating in the region beyond boycotts in the food and beverage market. They thrived and continue to do so.

Given the past distinction between international trade ties and political policies of the U.S., a Trump presidency will unlikely impact American commercial interests abroad in the Arab world.

Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 0203 047 2000 | @edelmanUK

Political earthquake could shake ASEAN into shape.

As a political earthquake, the UK’s decision to vote to leave the world’s largest trading block now serves as a mere appetiser to Donald J. Trump’s ‘America First’-led electoral entrée.

The global order is in flux, driven by a virulent brand of populism, and with little end in sight.

Asia Pacific, and more specifically ASEAN countries in the region had been keenly following events in the United States. Trump’s ‘America First’ policy has contributed to his stunning ascent to the Oval Office, but what are the consequences of this approach for the ASEAN region?

One of the cornerstones of President Obama’s administration had been the much vaunted Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP).

This policy eventually turned from cornerstone to millstone for the Democratic Party’s preferred candidate.

Secretary Clinton ultimately took up opposition to this programme in a bid to outflank nomination rival Bernie Sanders on policy while Presidentelect Donald Trump has used his opposition to this deal as a lightening rod for his supporters to vent their anger against the perceived injustices of globalisation. Both candidates were crystal clear that the deal was bad for America in a globalised world that was not delivering a net benefit for ordinary citizens.

Even the most optimistic observers must now admit that the TPP is dead. Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong recently highlighted the potential benefits of rapidly finalising any deal in the dying embers of the Obama administration, telling TIME magazine that, “It shows that you are serious, that you [the U.S.] are prepared to deepen the relationship and that you are putting a stake here which you will have an interest in upholding.”

[Congress] understand that 95 per cent of the world's consumers are outside the U.S. and we need to be playing out in that marketplace, so the TPP will help."

With a President Trump likely to tear up the deal, ASEAN economies could be forgiven for feeling acute concern for their trading futures with the U.S. looking likely to reject a ‘pivot’ to Asia in favour of a more inward-looking posture.

This inward-looking posture could not just impact on trade but also on regional security.

It can be argued that the Obama years represented a calculated and partial retrenchment from the region, leading to an emboldened China and concerns among ASEAN governments, still adjusting to a more assertive China. President-elect Trump has revealed very little genuine detail in relation to his foreign policy ambitions, which means that regional capitals are now playing a waiting game to see where we go from here. These are uncharted waters with a new captain at the helm.

The United States has acted as the leading guarantor of regional stability in Asia Pacific for over 50 years. The General Election result throws this established order into doubt now that Trump promises ‘America First’. The result could be viewed as the much needed impetus for ASEAN economies to work more closely than ever before, now that the old guarantor could become less reliable. Perhaps this is a watershed for the region – in trade terms at least – that we must now enter a new era of ‘ASEAN First’ in response to this landmark political result.

The governor of Singapore’s American Chamber of Commerce sounded a cautionary note, stating that, "We need to make them

Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 0203 047 2000 | @edelmanUK

On November 14th, Chinese President XI Jinping initiated a phone call with Presidentelect Trump. XI’s benevolent attitude demonstrated China’s willingness to cooperate with the U.S. in the hopes of alleviating Sino-U.S. tensions from recent years. However, Trump gave no concrete response aside from diplomatic rhetoric.

Although ambiguity is expected at this early stage, it may imply more uncertainty for the future of the Sino-U.S. relationship.

In contrast to Trump’s tendency towards antiglobalization and protectionism, China is further deepening reform and opening up to other countries, engaging in globalization and regional affairs. The recent Sixth Plenum of the 18th China’s Communist Party (CCP) Congress officially declared XI Jinping as the “core” leader. This designation confirmed XI’s consolidation of power and signaled that he stands above his peers. In this sense, XI’s reform and opening up agenda as well as his initiatives, including “One Belt One Road” (OBOR) and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), will be further supported and promoted in the coming years.

Due to China’s opening policy towards foreign investment and enterprise services, China’s circumstances will remain relatively stable even in case of changes in U.S. politics.

From a macro perspective, China may benefit from Trump’s presidency. With the U.S. withdrawing from TPP, its challenges to China also end. As U.S. protectionism would limit the country’s role in the international arena, it would leave a leadership vacuum for China to fill, which can then help China transform from a rule-follower into a rule-enabler in globalization.

There are a number of uncertainties, however, with one coming from Trump’s possible restrictions on trade with China. Throughout his campaign, Trump made hostile statements, including bringing cases against Beijing to the WTO and imposing a 45% tariff on Chinese imports. In this sense, Trump may adopt protective measures on certain industries, particularly in industries where

China has a trade surplus via-a-vis the U.S., including higher trade tariffs against China’s exports, anti-dumping measures etc.

The Trump regulatory reform plan is disproportionately – and quite intentionally – aimed at boosting the U.S. manufacturing sector, which may have impacts on clean energy companies, both foreign and domestic. Trump intends to reduce U.S. tax and believes it will help close the current offshoring gap.

Another uncertainty is Trump’s stance on China’s currency after labelling China a “currency manipulator” during the campaign.

If the RMB currency fluctuates as a result of Trump imposing pressure, U.S. enterprises in China may face unstable operational costs, fiscal and tax risks, etc. In any way, U.S. accusations of RMB devaluation are not a new topic and Beijing is likely to resist the international pressure and maintain a stable RMB as it has in the past.

Trump’s commitments to U.S. employment are a third uncertainty. Trump has promised during the campaign that he would bring jobs back to Americans, particularly in the manufacturing and infrastructure sectors, through tax reform and renegotiation of international trade deals such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

Since he has made accusations that American jobs are being “stolen” by foreign people, there are possibilities that Trump may push U.S. multinational enterprises to employ more U.S. citizens, both locally and overseas. In this sense, U.S. enterprises in China are likely to face pressures from their own country.

However, given the nature of U.S. business and multinational companies based in the states, it would be a highly bureaucratic task and take a resourceful government to make this happen.

Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 0203 047 2000 | @edelmanUK

Fear of the unknown: reaction to Donald J. Trump’s win The long-awaited results of the U.S. elections that declared Trump as president, sounded off mixed reactions globally, with countries either openly talking about uncertainties ahead or expressing their excitement and hoping for closer ties.

In India, the market reaction to the election results was coupled with the major, unexpected announcement the previous day to ban currency notes of Rs. 500 and Rs. 1000, causing India’s stock exchange BSE Sensex plummeting close to 1,700 points. Only considering the results, India Inc. estimated that Trump’s win will not affect India much, although concerns were raised about trade deals, immigration policies and his campaign rhetoric about curbing outsourcing. The caution came in spite of Trump’s promise that the U.S. and India would work closely together.

Impact on Immigration

One of the promises by Trump during his campaign was that he would focus on creating jobs for U.S. citizens by stemming immigration. He said that he would end the use of H-1B visa as a means of cheap labour and would bring in additional checks for companies using the H1-B by ruling that they would have to provide jobs for Americans before they hire foreign nationals. According to a report by financial services company India Infoline (IIFL), North America generates about 60% of $82bn software export revenues for the Indian outsourcing industry. The report says: “It will be imperative though, for IT services providers to focus a lot more aggressively on value addition by moving up the value chain to stay relevant in the U.S. market.”

work visas. India’s Commerce and Industry minister Nirmala Sitharaman said he will negotiate the visa issue with the Trump administration when it assumes office in January.

Ratification of the Trans-Pacific Partnership For India, the TPP agreement meant increased investment in agriculture, trade in goods and services, promoting investment in the manufacturing industry, and deepening cooperation in intellectual property. As Trump has said he will not ratify the deal, India will have to find other markets to cooperate with.

There are also ongoing negotiations between the two countries for a bilateral free trade agreement, which is currently marred by uncertainty. Sitharaman said Thursday, “No matter what the presidential candidates promised during the campaign process, we do not know their position clearly.”

ASSOCHAM is confident India’s apex trade association ASSOCHAM said it was confident that the apprehensions regarding Trump would be proved wrong. The association’s President Sunil Kanoria said in a statement that India Inc. can work with the Trump administration on infrastructure projects. He lauded the political change and added that the factors affecting the local financial markets would settle down once the currency swap in India is accepted fully by the banks. He added that India now has to improve its soft power and has to strive to be a country that complements the U.S.

India has also repeatedly raised concerns about the U.S.’s visa procedure towards Indian citizens, including filing a case with the World Trade Organization against Washington’s decision to impose high fees on temporary

Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 0203 047 2000 | @edelmanUK

Public opinion in Japan towards Donald J. Trump’s election has been negative. A Yahoo!

Poll surveying the public the day after the election showed a large majority expected Japan-U.S. relations to worsen, and less than 10% expected them to improve.

The Japanese government had expected Hillary Clinton to win, evidenced by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe only meeting with Clinton during his visit to New York to attend the UN General Assembly in September.

It is traditional protocol for the Japanese Prime Minister to visit a newly-elected U.S. President approximately one or two months following the inauguration. This was the case for Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and also Barack Obama. On November 17th, however, Prime Minister Abe met President-elect Trump in New York City on his way to attend this year’s APEC Summit in Lima, Peru – Trump’s first meeting with a foreign head of state since his election. Along with the official announcement of his visit, the Japanese Prime Minister’s Office published a congratulatory message on its social media channels. These posts received incredibly high engagement with the majority of responses negative.

and Japan to worsen under the Trump presidency. Of the respondents, 63% expect incentives to invest in the U.S. will be reduced.

On November 10th, the Yen-to-USD appreciated 400 points, although it was only for a short period of time and it has since recovered to its pre-election level.

In Japan, there is an obvious feeling of social pressure to avoid even attempting to understand Trump’s positions, even in casual circles. During the U.S. election campaign, people felt embarrassed or guilty to talk positively about Trump because it was widely recognized that he is a symbol of vulgarity. It will be interesting to see how the perception of Trump in Japan changes, if at all, following the Prime Minister’s visit. Even more interesting is the prospect of Trump one day meeting the Emperor of Japan.

After their meeting, Abe said the two had a “very candid discussion”, reassuring the public that the Japan-U.S. relationship can continue to be strong.

It is standard protocol for Japanese business leaders to make neutral comments on the occasion of political elections, whether domestic or international. However, Akio Mimura, the Chairman of the Japan Chamber of Commerce & Industry and former CEO of Nippon Steel Sumitomo Metals Co., made a public comment requesting Trump to make “practical, logical judgment.” His comment on the U.S. Presidential election was absolutely exceptional, and many businesspeople felt Mr. Mimura’s comment reflected the intense anxiety and fear shared by the economic leaders of Japan. In October, Reuters surveyed the top 400 Japanese companies, and 57% expect the trade situation between the U.S.

Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 0203 047 2000 | @edelmanUK

As Korea and the United States have been maintaining a close relationship for a long time, its political climate not only affects Korea from an economic and trade perspective, but also in national security and defense matters.

With a domestic scandal around current President Park Geun-Hye raging, a lot of attention has been paid to the U.S. election result. Trump’s election pledges attracted a lot of interest from the start of the presidential campaign, and several topics have aroused discussion not only among politicians but also the general public as well.

factors, a potential re-negotiation of the trade agreement, as Trump called for during his presidential campaign, is of high concern.

Consequently, there are worries that the Korean economy will be impacted negatively once Trump’s election pledges are executed, especially as the economy is already struggling. In particular, Trump’s calls to ‘buy American’ might dampen export rates, especially in the automotive sector. As the U.S. is Korea’s second biggest trading partner after China, even a small change could have large impact.

The public sentiment after the election has been full of worries and uncertainty, because the relationship with and level of trust towards the Obama administration had been very good over the past eight years.

The first and foremost topic of concern is national security, after Trump criticized allies for relying too much on the military force of the U.S. during his campaign. As Trump demands Korea to increase its defense spending, him being elected as the next U.S. president will lead to a greater impact on Korea’s national security policy, particularly in response to increased provocation from North Korea, a country that favors military over soft power.

Furthermore, Trump’s remarks could potentially present a wrong image to North Korea, who has continuously shown provocation through nuclear testing, that it is okay to ignore the international opinion on non-proliferation. Nonetheless, Korean media and the general public still have hope that the new presidential administration will continue to maintain the strong relationship between the two nations, regardless of Trump’s election pledges.

Another important issue is the Korea-U.S. free trade agreement. Trade and commerce are two of the most important drivers of the South Korean economy, as its dependence on foreign trade is over 90%. Considering these

Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 0203 047 2000 | @edelmanUK

Like much of the rest of the world, Donald J. Trump’s surprise victory was met with shock and disbelief in Australia. Unlike much of the rest of the world, we in Australia were able to watch the election results roll in in real time.

The first polls across the United States began to close shortly after 10.00AM AEDT (Sydney and Melbourne), with initial results in key states favoring Hillary Clinton. By the time many of us returned from lunch at around 1.00PM, Trump had begun to surge. And he did not stop. We watched his lead grow, and throughout the afternoon it became increasingly clear that Clinton was not going to pull off a come from behind win. As many of us left work before 6.00pm, U.S. news outlets were beginning to make official what we had known for hours. Trump had won. As we were arriving home after work, Trump was giving his victory speech.

The reaction has been one of confusion and discomfort. Our Prime Minister, Malcolm Turnbull, was photographed throughout the day in Parliament hunched over his phone with the Foreign Minister Julie Bishop, neither of them looking thrilled. Turnbull – who phoned Trump to congratulate him – has already discussed the U.S. military presence in the Asia Pacific region with the next President and implored him to rethink his opposition to the Trans Pacific Partnership, of which Australia is a member. Although Turnbull later told reporters that Trump’s views on the TPP are well known. To put it simply, like many other nations in the region, Australia is worried that a Trump Administration may abandon the Asia-Pacific, where it performs a vital function as a counterweight to China’s growing ambitions. There are also fears of a Trump-led trade war with China, Australia’s biggest trading partner.

crucial Senate voting bloc. Right-wing MPs in Turnbull’s own government have been outspoken supporters of Trump for many months, with former Prime Minister and Turnbull nemesis Tony Abbott tweeting “Congrats to the new president who appreciates that middle America is sick of being taken for granted”. Meanwhile, the Leader of the Opposition, Bill Shorten stood by previous remarks that Trump’s views were “barking mad”, citing the President-elect’s comments about women and people of color.

Greens Leader Richard Di Natale noted that the American people “have let us down”.

Whilst publicly the government maintains that Australia’s highly valued military alliance and trade relationship with the United States will remain intact, across the country there is a deep feeling of anxiety towards a Trump Presidency. The front page of The Herald Sun – a popular Melbourne tabloid – read “Shock and Awe”, whilst Wall Street Journal affiliate newspaper The Australian had “America stuns the world” emblazoned on its cover. The Australian Financial Review simply said: “American revolution”.

Yet, a day after the result there were signs that Australia’s reaction may have been overblown.

Following an initial 4 per cent decline on the Australian share market, the ASX 200 added $50 billion a day later in the biggest one-day percentage gain since October 2011. Despite this, across Australia uncertainty remains over a President-elect who failed to articulate the finer details of his policies, with no one here quite sure how Trump’s victory will affect the key areas of Australia’s relationship with our closest ally.

As Phil Coorey, Chief Political Correspondent at The Australian Financial Review, said, the Trump victory may make life more difficult for Turnbull on the home front. Trump has emboldened Senator Pauline Hanson and her right-wing One Nation Party, who although not aligned with the government, contain a

Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 0203 047 2000 | @edelmanUK