Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2016

UTAH INFORMED V I S U A L

I N T E L L E C T I O N

F O R

In Partnership with the Salt Lake Chamber

2 0 1 6

S TA F F A N D FAC U LT Y A D V I S O R S Natalie Gochnour, Director Jennifer Robinson, Associate Director James A. Wood, Ivory-Boyer Senior Fellow Dianne Meppen, Director of Survey Research Pamela S. Perlich, Director of Demographic Research Juliette Tennert, Director of Economics and Public Policy Adam Meirowitz, Faculty Advisor Matt Burbank, Faculty Advisor Samantha Ball, Research Associate DJ Benway, Research Analyst Anna Bergevin, Research Associate Cathy Chambless, Senior Research Associate John C. Downen, Senior Research Analyst

Ken Embley, Senior Research Associate Emily Harris, Demographic Analyst Michael T. Hogue, Senior Research Statistician Mike Hollingshaus, Demographer Collen Huber, Administrative Manager Shelley Kruger, Accounting and Finance Manager Jennifer Leaver, Research Analyst Sara McCormick, Senior Research Associate Levi Pace, Research Analyst Nicholas Thiriot, Communications Specialist Effie Johnson Van Noy, Utah State Data Center Coordinator Natalie Young, Research Analyst

A

few years ago a group of Utah business leaders led by Spencer P. Eccles and Clark Ivory traveled to Stanford University to attend an economic summit hosted by the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. The conference focused on pivotal issues facing the world. Noble Prize winning economists and former presidential cabinet members led datadriven discussions about issues important to the health and prosperity of our nation. In addition to the presentations and dialogue, Utah business leaders were invigorated by a captivating booklet that visually presented interesting data and ideas. They returned to Salt Lake City motivated to create just such a product for Utah.

Utah Informed is that booklet. It contains what the editors of the book call “visual intellection.” Each page includes a compelling table, chart, idea, or schematic presented in a way that will help readers use their mind to carefully consider a topic. The book is unabashedly economic in its focus, but it reaches into broader categories of importance to our state.

The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, located within the David Eccles School of Business, has curated this booklet in partnership with the Salt Lake Chamber. Its

purpose is to stimulate discussion, clarify a fact, and, ultimately, help people make informed decisions. We encourage you to scroll through the pages and consider a trend, explore a data item, think deeply about an issue important to our community, and share an insight learned with a friend.

Community prosperity doesn’t just happen. It is the result of purposeful decisions made by people who use data and a meaningful process. We hope Utah Informed helps Utahns make informed decisions in 2016.

Natalie Gochnour

Taylor Randall

Lane Beattie

Director, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Dean, David Eccles School of Business

President & CEO, Salt Lake Chamber

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

|

3

Contents Global and National Words and Phrases to Know in 2016. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Olympic Games History and Timeline. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Weighted Average Exchange Value of U.S. Dollar . . . . . 6 10-year Treasury Interest Rate. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Effective Federal Funds Rate. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Comparing U.S. Recoveries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 United States Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP). . . . 10 CBO Baseline Budget Projection: U.S. Deficit. . . . . . . . . 11 CBO Baseline Budget Projection: U.S. Outlays. . . . . . . . 12 United States Trade Balance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Percent of State Exports to China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 People Population Growth Since Recession’s Trough. . . . . . . . .

Utah Components of Population Change. . . . . . . . . . . .

Natural Increase and Net Migration. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Utah’s Largest Cities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Race and Ethnicity in Utah . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Dependency Ratios in Utah and the United States . . .

Percent of Population Without Health Insurance. . . . .

Percent of Population in Poverty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Primary Languages Spoken at Home in Utah. . . . . . . . .

Educational Attainment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Prosperity Through Education. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Point-in-Time Counts of Utah’s Homeless Population. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Utah’s Homeless Population by Subpopulation . . . . . .

Utah’s Homeless Services and Housing Services Map. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Collective Impact Thinking and Framework. . . . . . . . . .

Jobs Utah Nonfarm Employment by Industry. . . . . . . . . . . . .

Utah’s Largest Employers: 2014. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Year-Over Nonfarm Payroll Employment Growth. . . . .

Utah Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment. . . . . . . . . . . .

Employment as a Percent of 2007 Peak. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Year-Over Employment Growth in Utah. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Utah Employment Change by Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Unemployment Rates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Unemployment Rates in Utah and the United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilization in Utah . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance per 1,000 Jobs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Job Index for Utah Private and Public Sectors. . . . . . . .

25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41

Edited by Juliette Tennert, Director of Economic and Public Policy Research Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, David Eccles School of Business

4

|

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2016

Income Utah Average Hourly Earnings for Private Nonfarm Payroll Employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Utah Components of Personal Income. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Per Capita Personal Income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Median Household Income. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Real Median Household Income. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Gini Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

42 43 44 45 46 47

Sales & Prices Year-over-Year Change in Retail Sales. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Composition of Utah Retail Sales: 2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Average NBA Ticket Prices: 2014/2015 Season. . . . . . . .

Oil and Motor Fuel Prices. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

48 49 50 51

Real Estate & Construction Utah Median Existing Home Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Purchase-Only Home Price Index. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Utah Home For-Sale Inventory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Mortgage Foreclosure Rates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Percent of Mortgages with Negative/ Near-Negative Equity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Utah Residential Permitting. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Utah Permit Value. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Utah Construction Jobs as a Percent of Total Jobs. . . .

Utah Skier Visits. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 Utah Hotel Occupancy Rates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63

52 53 54 55

International Trade Change in Export Value: 2014 - 2015e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Value of Utah’s Commodity Exports. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Utah’s Trading Partners. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Utah’s Commodity Exports. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

64 65 66 67

Resources Percentage of Land that is Federally Owned . . . . . . . . .

Domestic Water Use: 2010. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

City Water Rate Structures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Utah’s Air Quality Challenge. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

68 69 70 71

Fiscal State of Utah Budget Reserve Accounts. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

FY 2016 State of Utah Appropriations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

FY 2016 State of Utah Budget Sources. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

State of Utah Sales and Use Tax Collections. . . . . . . . . .

72 73 74 75

56 57 58 59

Economic Strength and Diversity Percent of GDP by Industry in Utah and the United States: 2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76 Hachman Index. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 Utah Unicorns. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78

Travel & Tourism Total Visitor Spending in Utah. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 Utah State and National Park Visits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61

Decision Curves Dips and Cliffs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 Informed Decisions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

|

5

Words and Phrases to Know in 2016 Alphabet

Google’s new holding company. The name breaks precedence with using the G-word – such as Google Plus or Google Maps – and brings the company into the universe of names inspired by language. Could this portend a new esthetic at Google?

Epic Pass

Utah skiers can now purchase the multi-state and country Epic Pass and ski right at home. Park City and Canyons, which are now a single ski area owned by Vail Resorts, is the nation’s largest ski area with over 7,300 acres of skiable terrain.

FIFA

New term for corruption.

Gig economy

The on-demand jobs facilitated by online services such as Uber and Airbnb.

Holy War

It’s back Sept. 10, 2016

Indaba

South African term from the Zulu language that describes a consensus-building form of discussion.

The term played a role in bringing nearly 200 nations together on a climate change policy.

Inland port

Facilities that process and handle shipments at a site displaced from sea, air and land ports of entry.

Salt Lake City’s central location in the interior western United States makes it a strategic location from which to distribute goods that are received in large volumes from long distances.

Intellection

The process of using one’s mind to consider something carefully. The birthplace of informed decisions.

Islamic State group

The Associated Press Stylebook’s preferred term for ISIS or ISIL. AP defines it as an Islamic militant organization that broke with the al-Qaida network and took control of large parts of Iraq and Syria, where it declared a caliphate, a traditional form of Islamic rule.

Northwest quadrant

Salt Lake City’s western edge. It includes 40 percent of the total land area of Salt Lake City. More than 9,000 acres of this land lies north of Interstate 80 and remains undeveloped. Only minutes from downtown, the area offers prime transportation access and has been selected as the location for the new state prison.

Three million

Utah reached 3,000,000 people in 2015. The milestone serves as a symbol of a fast-growing state that ranks as the 32nd most populous state in the nation.

Trumped!

What’s happening to Republican presidential candidates.

Unicorpse

The demise of startups once valued at a billion dollars or more.

Wexting Walking-while-texting.

6

|

Global and National

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2016

The Olympic Games History and Timeline WINTER

2002 Salt Lake City

2006 Torino

2010 Vancouver

2014 Sochi

2018 PyeongChang

2022 Beijing

2026 TBD

SUMMER

2004 Athens

2008 Beijing

2012 London

2016 Rio

2020 Tokyo

2024 TBD

2028 TBD

2030 TBD

Selection process requires significant lead time. Salt Lake City will need to be ready.

Summer 2024 Bid IOC Selection: 2017

I

Current candidates: Paris, Los Angeles, Rome, Budapest

Winter 2026 Bid IOC Selection: 2019

I

Likely U.S. candidates: Salt Lake City, Reno-Lake Tahoe, Denver

Summer 2028 Bid IOC Selection: 2021

Winter 2030 Bid IOC Selection: 2023 2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Source: Salt Lake Chamber

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Global and National

|

7

U.S. Imports are Becoming Less Expensive U.S. Exports are Becoming More Expensive Weighted Average Exchange Value of U.S. Dollar: Broad Index 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60

Dec-15

Jun-15

Dec-14

Jun-14

Dec-13

Jun-13

Dec-12

Jun-12

Dec-11

Jun-11

Dec-10

Jun-10

Dec-09

Jun-09

Dec-08

Jun-08

Dec-07

Jun-07

Dec-06

Jun-06

Dec-05

50

Note: Y-axis does not start at zero. 1997 = 100 Source: U.S. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

8

|

Global and National

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2016

10-Year Treasury Note Remains Low

10-year Treasury Interest Rate 6.0%

5.0%

4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

Dec-15

Jun-15

Dec-14

Jun-14

Dec-13

Jun-13

Dec-12

Jun-12

Dec-11

Jun-11

Dec-10

Jun-10

Dec-09

Jun-09

Dec-08

Jun-08

Dec-07

Jun-07

Dec-06

Jun-06

Dec-05

0.0%

Source: U.S. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Global and National

|

9

Monetary Policy Normalization Begins

Effective Federal Funds Rate 6.0%

5.0%

4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

Dec-17f

Jun-17f

Dec-16f

Jun-16f

Dec-15

Jun-15

Dec-14

Jun-14

Dec-13

Jun-13

Dec-12

Jun-12

Dec-11

Jun-11

Dec-10

Jun-10

Dec-09

Jun-09

Dec-08

Jun-08

Dec-07

Jun-07

Dec-06

Jun-06

0.0%

Note: f = forecast Source: Wall Street Journal

10

|

Global and National

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2016

U.S. Recovery: Long and Slow

Comparing U.S. Recoveries

Trough Q4 1949 Q2 1954 Q2 1958 Q1 1961 Q4 1970 Q1 1975 Q3 1980 Q4 1982 Q1 1991 Q4 2001 Q2 2009

Peak Q2 1953 Q3 1957 Q2 1960 Q4 1969 Q4 1973 Q1 1980 Q3 1981 Q3 1990 Q1 2001 Q4 2007 ongoing

# of Quarters 14 13 8 35 12 20 4 31 40 24 26

RGDP Growth 7.6 4 5.6 5 5.1 4 4.4 4 3.6 3 2.1

Source: U.S. Chamber of Commerce

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Global and National

|

11

U.S. Economy Keeps Moving Along

United States Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 5.0%

4.6%

4.6% 4.3%

3.9%

4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

3.9%

3.8%

2.7%

3.0%

2.9%

2.7%

2.5%

2.5% 1.9%

1.7%

2.1%

1.9%

2.0%

2.1%

2.7%

2.6%

2.2%

1.1%

1.0%

0.8%

0.6%

0.5% 0.1%

0.0%

-1.0%

-0.9% -1.5%

Q4 2016f

Q3 2016f

Q2 2016f

Q1 2016f

Q4 2015f

Q3 2015

Q2 2015

Q1 2015

Q4 2014

Q3 2014

Q2 2014

Q1 2014

Q4 2013

Q3 2013

Q2 2013

Q1 2013

Q4 2012

Q3 2012

Q2 2012

Q1 2012

Q4 2011

Q3 2011

Q2 2011

Q1 2011

Q4 2010

Q3 2010

Q2 2010

Q1 2010

-2.0%

Note: Quarterly growth rates, annualized; f = forecast Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Wall Street Journal

12

|

Global and National

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2016

U.S. Deficit Spending Gets Worse

CBO Baseline Budget Projection: U.S. Deficit 0.0%

0

-0.5% -200

-1.0% -400 -426

-414

-1.5%

-416 -454

-600

-2.0%

-596 -2.2%

-2.1%

-2.2%

-687

-2.4%

-800

-2.5% -767

-2.8%

-885

-3.0%

-886

-3.1%

-1,000

-3.3%

Deficit: $ billions Deficit: % of GDP -1,200

-895

2015

2016

2017

-3.4% -3.7%

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

-1,008

-3.5%

-3.6% -3.7%

2023

2024

2025

-4.0%

Source: Congressional Budget Office

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Global and National

|

13

Keep an Eye on Mandatory Spending and Net Interest

CBO Baseline Budget Projection: U.S. Outlays $ millions

$7,000

Net interest Discretionary

$6,000

$6,007

Mandatory $5,244

$5,000

$4,000

$3,506 $229

$3,000 $1,179

$3,677

$3,928 $261

$4,044 $304

$4,184

$1,162

$1,186

$437

$503

$4,931

$1,195

$606

$1,400 $1,310

$1,222

$1,249

$660

$1,336

$0

$2,099

2014

$2,297

2015

$1,362

$1,276

$2,000

$1,000

$755 $710

$553

$367

$218 $1,176

$4,443

$4,690

$5,455

$5,657

$2,554

$2,623

$2,939

$2,491

$2,783

$3,101

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

$3,328

$3,459

$3,586

2022

2023

2024

$3,852

2025

Note: 2014 = Actual Source: Congressional Budget Office

14

|

Global and National

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2016

U.S. Imports Dominate Exports

United States Trade Balance $ millions, seasonally adjusted

$300,000

Imports Exports

$250,000

Balance

$200,000

$150,000

$100,000

$50,000

$0

-$50,000

Oct-15

Apr-15

Oct-14

Apr-14

Oct-13

Apr-13

Oct-12

Apr-12

Oct-11

Apr-11

Oct-10

Apr-10

Oct-09

Apr-09

Oct-08

Apr-08

Oct-07

Apr-07

Oct-06

Apr-06

Oct-05

-$100,000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Global and National

|

15

Utah's Exposure to China 7th Highest in the Nation

Percent of State Exports to China WA 22.9% MT 6.9% OR 20.4%

ND 0.9%

ID 9.5% WY 1.1%

NV 11.9% CA 9.3%

AZ 4.8%

MN 8.4% WI 6.7%

SD 2.5% NE 7.8%

UT 10.5%

CO 7.9%

NM 2.8%

KS 9.8% OK 4.3%

TX 3.8%

AK 28.7% HI 15.3%

VT 7.5%

MI 6.1%

IA 6.3% IL 6.9% MO 6.2%

AR 6.4% LA 13.0%

NY 4.9%

IN 4.1%

OH 7.5%

PA 5.9% WV 7.3%

KY 6.0%

NH 7.1% RI

MA 4.9% 9.0% NJ CT 3.9%5.7% MD 6.0% DE 8.7%

NC 8.5%

TN 7.1% AL MS 5.6% 16.1%

VA 10.4%

ME 6.8%

SC 14.3% GA 7.8%

FL 2.1%

0.6% - 5.0% 5.1% - 13.0% 13.1% - 30.0%

Note: Excludes exports of gold.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Analysis of U.S. Census Bureau Data

16

|

Global and National

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2016

Utah's Population Growth Since the Recession is 3rd Highest in the Nation

Population Growth Since Recession's Trough 2009 - 2015; US = 4.8%

WA 7.5% MT 5.0% OR 5.8%

ND 13.8%

ID 6.5% WY 4.7% NV 7.7%

CA 5.9%

UT 10.0%

AZ 7.6%

MN 3.9% WI 1.8%

SD 6.4% NE 4.6%

CO 9.7%

NM 2.4%

VT 0.2%

KS 2.8% OK 5.2%

IA 3.0% IL 0.5% MO 2.1%

AK 5.7% HI 6.3%

IN 2.5%

OH 0.7%

PA 1.1% WV -0.2%

KY 2.5%

AR 2.8%

AL 2.1%

VA 5.8%

NH 1.1% RI

MA 0.3% 4.2% NJ CT 2.3%0.8% MD 4.8% DE 6.1%

NC 6.3%

TN 4.7% MS 1.1%

TX 10.8%

NY 2.5%

MI 0.2%

ME 0.0%

SC 6.7% GA 6.2%

LA 4.0% FL 8.7%

-0.2% - 1.1% 1.2% - 4.2% 4.3% - 7.7% 7.8% - 13.8%

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Analysis of U.S. Census Bureau Data

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

People

|

17

Natural Increase Dominates Utah Population Change

Utah Components of Population Change 90,000 Net Migration

80,000

Natural Increase Population Change

70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 -10,000

1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

-20,000

Source: Utah Population Estimates Committee, U.S. Census Bureau, State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Working Group

18

|

People

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2016

Utah's Natural Increase Unique Among States

Natural Increase and Net Migration per 1,000 Population, 2010 - 2015

North Dakota District Of Columbia Texas Utah Colorado Florida Nevada Arizona Washington South Carolina Idaho South Dakota Delaware Georgia Hawaii North Carolina California Oregon Virginia Montana Oklahoma United States Maryland Wyoming Tennessee Nebraska

32.2

90.2

38.2

74.8

42.6

46.6 65.5

15.6

32.3

48.7

9.1

65.7 26.4

41.9

28.2

36.4

27.1

36.5

14.8

40.3 34.3

19.0

30.6

21.2

16.8

34.7

29.5

21.7

30.8

19.9

19.8

30.2

34.3

15.0

15.9

33.3

25.7

19.1

15.8

26.3

20.6

19.9

22.6

16.7

23.7

14.9

27.5 14.4

0

-200

0

10.8 23.7

29.5

-20

Dakota DistrictNorth Of Columbia Texas Utah Colorado Florida Nevada Arizona Washington South Carolina Idaho South Dakota Delaware Georgia Hawaii NorthCalifornia Carolina Oregon Virginia Montana Oklahoma United States Maryland Wyoming Tennessee Nebraska Massachusetts Alaska Minnesota Louisiana Iowa New York Indiana Arkansas New Jersey Kansas Kentucky Alabama Missouri Wisconsin NewNew Hampshire Mexico Pennsylvania Mississippi Ohio Michigan Connecticut RhodeIllinois Island Maine WestVermont Virginia

20

7.3

40

60

80

Natural Increase/Decrease

100

Massachusetts Alaska Minnesota Louisiana Iowa New York Indiana Arkansas New Jersey Kansas Kentucky Alabama Missouri Wisconsin New Hampshire New Mexico Pennsylvania Mississippi Ohio Michigan 200 Connecticut Rhode Island Illinois Maine Vermont West Virginia

120

14.0

22.2 52.6

-17.1 27.2

7.0

22.8

5.1

17.4

7.0

22.9

-1.1

18.9

1.7

14.5 4.9 18.8

-0.2

25.8

-7.3

14.3

3.9

9.4 5.8 -1.0 16.1 -2.0 16.4 6.74.1 24.7

-14.6

5.5 2.3 -8.5 15.6 -4.7

11.6

-6.6 11.6 -5.510.0 -3.0 6.4 21.7

-19.4

-1.5 2.9 -3.8

4.6

-1.8 -2.9

-20

20

Net Migration

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Analysis of U.S. Census Bureau Data

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

People

|

19

Utah Has Four Cities With 100,000+ People

Utah's Largest Cities Population > 40,000 in 2014

Salt Lake City West Valley Provo West Jordan Orem Sandy Ogden St. George Layton South Jordan Taylorsville Lehi Logan Murray Draper Boutiful Riverton

2010 186,522 129,616 112,876 104,131 88,668 87,769 83,026 72,860 67,550 51,253 58,703 48,111 48,413 46,727 42,416 42,653 38,933

2011 188,158 131,077 114,611 106,575 89,613 88,692 83,316 73,953 68,245 53,347 59,755 49,721 49,107 47,182 43,273 42,856 39,581

2012 189,448 132,474 115,419 108,373 90,652 89,571 83,904 75,308 68,632 55,941 60,216 51,456 49,147 48,239 44,186 42,910 40,453

2013 191,282 133,843 116,351 110,184 91,669 90,349 84,223 76,742 70,786 59,379 60,599 54,324 49,113 48,633 45,286 42,983 40,980

2014 190,884 134,495 114,801 110,920 91,781 91,148 84,316 78,505 72,231 62,781 60,433 56,275 48,997 48,822 46,202 43,385 41,457

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

20

|

People

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2016

Utah's Becoming Increasingly Diverse

Race and Ethnicity in Utah 25%

95.0%

91.2% 19.7%

20%

20.6% 90.0%

85.3% 14.7%

15%

85.0% 13.0%

13.5%

80.4% 10%

8.8%

79.3%

9.0%

80.0%

7.5% 4.9%

5%

4.1%

75.0% 5.7%

0%

3.4%

3.9%

1980

1990

Other Minority (Not Hispanic or Latino)

2000

Hispanic or Latino Origin (of any race)

6.7%

7.1%

2010

2014

Series4

Percent of Total Population - White, Not Hispanic

Percent of Total Population - excludes White, Not Hispanic

92.4%

70.0%

White Alone (Not Hispanic or Latino)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Division 2014 Vintage Estimates; 2010 Decennial Census; 2000 Decennial Census; 1990 Decennial Census; 1980 Decennial Census

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

People

|

21

Funding Utah Public Education Should Get Easier

Dependency Ratios in Utah and the United States Dependents per 100 working-age persons

Retirees

81.6

33.7

31.1 34.3

26.7

24.2

33.3

62.4 17.6

58.9

75.7

74.4

72.9 74.0

23.7

50

20.1

20.3

60

61.5

71.7 73.1

70.0

68.2

20.7

61.9

14.4

68.5

15.2

15.8

70

80.4

78.2

80

35.6

Youth

34.5

90

40.0

46.7

39.9

47.1

39.8

46.2

UT US

39.9

UT US

47.5

38.7

UT US

38.2

UT US

52.4

53.0

54.2 41.4

20

41.7

30

65.8

40

10 0

1990

2000

2010

2020

UT US 2030

UT US 2040

UT US 2050

UT US 2060

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Analysis of Governor's Office of Management & Budget 2012 Projections

22

|

People

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2016

Utah and California Share Similar Rates of Uninsured

Percent of Population that is Without Health Insurance 2014; U.S. = 11.7%

WA 9.2% MT 14.2% OR 9.7%

ID 13.6% WY 12.0%

NV 15.2% CA 12.4%

UT 12.5%

AZ 13.6%

ND 7.9%

WI 7.3%

SD 9.8% NE 9.7%

CO 10.3%

NM 14.5%

KS 10.2% OK 15.4%

TX 19.1%

AK 17.2% HI 5.3%

VT 5.0%

MN 5.9%

IN IL 9.7% 11.9% MO 11.7%

AR 11.8%

NY 8.7%

MI 8.5%

IA 6.2%

OH 8.4%

PA 8.5% WV 8.6%

KY 8.5%

VA 10.9%

NH 9.2% RI

MA 7.4% 3.3% NJ CT 10.9%6.9% MD 7.9% DE 7.8%

NC 13.1%

TN 12.0%

AL MS 14.5% 12.1% LA 14.8%

ME 10.1%

SC 13.6% GA 15.8% FL 16.6%

Lower Uninsured Rate than UT* Difference from UT Not Statistically Significant Higher Uninsured Rate than UT*

*Difference is statistically different from zero at the 90-percent confidence interval.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

People

|

23

Utah's Poverty Rate is Lower than the Nation's, Remains Elevated

Percent of Population in Poverty 16.0%

United States Utah

14.0%

12.0%

10.0%

8.0%

6.0%

4.0%

2.0%

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

0.0%

Source: Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement

24

|

People

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2016

Utah is Global

Primary Languages Spoken at Home in Utah

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

People

|

25

Utah Men Outpace Women in Graduate Degree Attainment Nationally, the Gap is Smaller Educational Attainment: Highest Degree Attained Population Aged 25 Years and Older

100.0% 11.1%

10.7%

18.1%

18.4%

7.1%

8.8%

90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 20.9%

50.0%

12.8%

7.9%

20.5%

Graduate

20.2%

8.3%

11.3%

Bachelors

Associates

21.6% 27.2%

28.7%

40.0%

Some College

30.0%

28.5%

27.5%

20.0% 10.0% 0.0%

14.3%

13.0%

US Men

US Women

22.6%

23.1%

9.0%

8.4%

Utah Men

Utah Women

High School

<High School

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Analysis of U.S. Census Bureau Data

26

|

People

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2016

Properity 2020: Utah 5-Year Plan to Top-10 Education State Prosperity Through Education The five-year plan to elevate our educational outcomes to be globally competitive 4th and 8th Grade 2014 Reading Ranking (NAEP)

Goal Top 10

10

th

14

th

4th and 8th Grade 2014 Math Ranking (NAEP)

Goal Top 10

16th

20th

4th Grade

8th Grade

8th Grade

4th Grade

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics

High School Graduation

College Degrees

Goal Top 10

25th 2012 Graduation Rate among States

Goal Top 10

18th

2012 Degrees Percentage among States

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau, 2010-12 American Community Survey PUMS File

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

People

|

27

Utah's Homeless Services Challenges Persist

Point-in-Time Counts of Utah's Homeless Population 0.70%

15,093

0.56%

0.53%

0.60%

0.60%

0.52%

0.55% 13,621

13,362

0.57%

14,351

0.52%

13,690

0.50% 0.47%

0.46%

11,970

12,000

14,375

14,000

15,525

0.60%

15,642

16,000

16,522

18,000

0.40%

10,000 8,000

6,312

6,590

7,390

6,440

7,100

6,785

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

539

495

542

601

1,400

1,470

1,530

1,914

1,932

2005

812

0.10%

2,000 0

0.20%

5,000

5,565

4,000

5,910

6,000

7,105

0.30%

2014

0.00%

Annualized Total Count of Homeless Persons

Number of Homeless Persons in Families

Number of Chronically Homeless Persons

Total Homeless Persons as a Percent of Total Population

Source: 2014 Annualized Utah Homeless Point-in-Time Count

28

|

People

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2016

Utah Homelessness Has Many Faces

Utah's Homeless Population by Subpopulation

Chronically Homeless

Sheltered

40

301

Unsheltered Veterans

24

293

Mental Illness

96

626

Substance Abuse

105

581

HIV/AIDS

52 0

Victims of Domestic Violence

61

660

Unaccompanied Youth (18-25)

86

Unaccompanied Minors (<18)

20

30 0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Source: 2014 Annualized Utah Homeless Point-in-Time Count

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

People

|

29

Utah’s Homeless Services and Housing Services Map

Key findings:

Housed

At-Risk

Homeless

Housing

Jail/Prison

Street

Affordable PSH

ER

Unknown

Transitional Rapid Housing

Institution

n Prevention and diversion are under-resourced. n “One-size-fits-all, concentrated site” approach does not serve different homeless sub-populations effectively. n Key providers, resources, and engagement points are not integrated or aligned.

n Veterans Services n Family Services n DV Services n Youth Services n Health Services n Job Training & Assistance n Community Programs

n Behavioral Health & Substance Use Disorder Services n Community Programs n Meals, Clothing & Other Basic Needs n Outreach n 211

n Primary entry path to system is through crisis and emergency shelter, creating a bottleneck and stress point.

Emergency Shelter

n Common exit paths from system lead back to crisis and homelessness.

Death Source: Salt Lake County Office of the Mayor and Collective Impact on Homelessness Steering Committee

30

|

People

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2016

Collective Impact Thinking and Framework Complex social problems cannot be solved by single programs, organizations or even sectors alone

Isolated Impact

Traditional Collaboration

Collective Impact

Five conditions of collective Impact Common agenda

Shared measurement

Mutually reinforcing activities

Continuous communication

Backbone support

Source: United Way of Salt Lake and Stanford Social Innovation Review (Kania and Kramer)

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

People

|

31

Utah's Job Makeup

Utah Nonfarm Employment by Industry: November 2015 (rounded to nearest thousand, seasonally adjusted)

Natural Resources

11,000

Construction

85,000

Manufacturing

126,000

Trade; Transp.; & Utilities

261,000

Information

36,000

Financial Activities

80,000

Prof. & Bus. Services

197,000

Education and Healthcare

186,000

Leisure and Hospitality

139,000

Other Services

36,000

Federal Government

36,000

State Government

76,000

Local Government

123,000 0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Analysis of BLS Data

32

|

Jobs

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2016

Sixteen of Utah's 25 Largest Employers are in the Public Sector

Utah's Largest Employers: 2014 Company

Industry

Employment

Intermountain Healthcare

Health Care

20,000+

State of Utah

State Government

20,000+

University of Utah (Including Hospital)

Higher Education

20,000+

Brigham Young University

Higher Education

15,000-19,999

Wal-Mart Associates

Warehouse Clubs/Supercenters

15,000-19,999

Hill Air Force Base

Federal Government

10,000-14,999

Davis County School District

Public Education

7,000-9,999

Granite School District

Public Education

7,000-9,999

Utah State University

Higher Education

7,000-9,999

Smith's Food and Drug Centers

Grocery Stores

7,000-9,999

U.S. Department of Treasury

Federal Government

5,000-6,999

Alpine School District

Public Education

5,000-6,999

Jordan School District

Public Education

5,000-6,999

Salt Lake County

Local Government

5,000-6,999

Utah Valley University

Higher Education

5,000-6,999

U.S. Postal Service

Higher Education

4,000-4,999

Zions Bank Management

Banking

4,000-4,999

The Canyons School District

Public Education

4,000-4,999

The Home Depot

Home Centers

4,000-4,999

Convergys

Telephone Call Center

3,000-3,999

L3 Communications Corporation

Electronics Manufacturing

3,000-3,999

Weber County School District

Public Education

3,000-3,999

Salt Lake City School District

Public Education

3,000-3,999

Delta Airlines

Air Transportation

3,000-3,999

Nebo School District

Public Education

3,000-3,999

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Jobs

|

33

Utah's Job Growth Rate is the Fastest in the Nation

Year-Over Nonfarm Payroll Employment Growth 2015 estimate; US = 2.1%

WA 3.3% MT 0.7% OR 3.2%

ND 0.6%

ID 3.2% WY 0.4% NV 3.2%

CA 3.0%

UT 3.7%

AZ 2.4%

MN 1.4% WI 1.6%

SD 1.7% NE 1.0%

CO 2.4%

NM 1.1%

VT 1.4%

KS 0.8% OK 0.7%

MI 2.2%

IA 1.6% IL 0.8% MO 1.1%

AK 0.5% HI 1.4%

IN 2.1%

OH 1.4%

PA 1.0% WV -1.0%

KY 2.0%

AR 2.0%

AL 1.5%

VA 1.1%

NH 1.1% RI

MA 1.2% 2.1% NJ CT 1.2%1.6% MD 1.8% DE 1.7%

NC 2.6%

TN 1.9% MS 0.9%

TX 2.4%

NY 1.7%

ME 0.8%

SC 2.8% GA 2.7%

LA 0.4% FL 3.4%

-1.0% - 0.9% 1.0% - 1.8% 1.9% - 2.7% 2.8% - 4.0%

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Analysis of BLS Data

34

|

Jobs

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2016

Utah has Added 210,000+ Jobs Since the Recession

Utah Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment thousands of jobs, seasonally adjusted

1,500

Note: Utah County currently has 231,000 jobs 1,400

1,300

1,200

1,100

1,000

900

Jul-15

Jul-14

Jan-15

Jan-14

Jul-13

Jan-13

Jul-12

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jan-11

Jul-10

Jan-10

Jul-09

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jan-07

Jul-06

Jan-06

Jul-05

Jul-04

Jan-05

Jan-04

Jul-03

Jan-03

Jul-02

Jul-01

Jan-02

Jan-01

Jul-00

Jan-00

800

Note: Y-axis does not start at zero.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Jobs

|

35

Most Sectors Have Surpassed 2007 Peak Employment Levels

Employment as a Percent of 2007 Peak: November 2015 110.1%

Total Nonfarm 98.3%

Natural Resources

Utah

85.2%

Construction

United States 97.1%

Manufacturing

105.1%

Trade; Transp.; & Utilities

120.2%

Information 106.0%

Financial activities

118.3%

Prof. & bus. services

129.6%

Education and healthcare

119.9%

Leisure and hospitality 101.4%

Other Services

112.7%

Government 0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

140.0%

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Analysis of BLS Data

36

|

Jobs

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2016

Composition of Utah's 47,800 New Jobs in 2015

Utah Year-Over Nonfarm Payroll Employment Growth: 2014-2015e

Natural Resources

-1,100 jobs (-8.9%)

Construction

5,800 jobs (7.3%)

Manufacturing

5,300 jobs (4.4%)

Trade; Transp.; & Utilities

3,800 jobs (1.5%)

Information

2,500 jobs (7.4%)

Financial activities

3,700 jobs (4.8%)

Prof. & bus. services

7,800 jobs (4.1%)

Education and healthcare

8,800 jobs (5.0%)

Leisure and hospitality

7,900 jobs (6.0%)

Other Services

-1,400 jobs (-3.7%)

Government -2,000

4,700 jobs (2.0%)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

Note: e = estimate Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Analysis of BLS Data

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Jobs

|

37

Construction is a Bright Spot (Finally)

Utah Employment Change by Industry, Year-Over and Recent Activity 30.0%

Improving

Expanding Construction

Annualized Rate of Change: Aug 15-Nov 15

20.0%

Information

10.0%

Financial activities Government Prof. & bus. services

0.0%

Education and healthcare Manufacturing

Natural Resources

Trade; Transp.; & Utilities Leisure and hospitality

-10.0%

-20.0%

Other Services

Contracting

-30.0% -12.0%

Slowing -7.0%

-2.0% 3.0% Year-Over Change: Nov 15

8.0%

Note: Bubble size represents industry size.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Analysis of BLS Data

38

|

Jobs

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2016

Utah's Unemployment Rate is the 7th Lowest in the Nation

Unemployment Rates November 2015; US = 5.0%

WA 5.3% MT 4.0% OR 5.7%

ND 2.7%

ID 3.9% WY 4.1% NV 6.5%

CA 5.7%

UT 3.5%

AZ 6.0%

MN 3.5% WI 4.2%

SD 3.0% NE 2.9%

CO 3.6%

NM 6.8%

VT 3.7%

KS 4.0% OK 4.2%

IA 3.4% IL 5.7% MO 4.7%

AK 6.4% HI 3.2%

IN 4.4%

OH 4.5%

PA 5.0% WV 6.5%

KY 4.9%

AR 5.0%

AL 6.0%

VA 4.2%

NH 3.2% RI

MA 5.2% 4.7% NJ CT 5.3%5.1% MD 5.2% DE 5.1%

NC 5.7%

TN 5.6% MS 6.0%

TX 4.6%

NY 4.8%

MI 5.1%

ME 4.1%

SC 5.5% GA 5.6%

LA 6.3% FL 5.0%

2.7% 3.8% 4.8% 5.8%

- 3.7% - 4.7% - 5.7% - 6.8%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Jobs

|

39

Utah's Unemployment Rate Tracks Nation, But Better

Unemployment Rates in Utah and the United States 12.0% United States Utah 10.0%

8.0%

6.0%

4.0%

2.0%

Nov-15

Nov-14

Nov-13

Nov-12

Nov-11

Nov-10

Nov-09

Nov-08

Nov-07

Nov-06

Nov-05

0.0%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

40

|

Jobs

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2016

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of BLS Data

Q2 2015

Q2 2014

Q4 2013

Q2 2013

Q4 2012

Q2 2012

Q4 2011

Q2 2011

Q4 2010

5.9%

6.9%

4.3% 4.2% 3.7%

4.3%

4.3%

4.3%

3.6%

3.6%

3.9%

3.9%

4.4%

4.8% 4.1%

4.4%

5.3% 5.3% 4.4%

4.9%

6.0% 6.0% 5.4% 5.6% 5.6%

4.9%

5.3%

5.8%

5.5%

6.2%

6.6%

7.0%

9.3%

14.8% 15.1% 15.1% 15.1% 14.4% 14.3%

12.9% 13.8%

13.3% 12.6% 12.2%

11.3%

11.2% 11.2% 10.9% 10.5% 10.2% 9.7% 9.2% 8.5% 8.2% 8.2% 7.9% 7.9% 7.9%

6.5% 6.6%

7.7%

7.1%

7.9%

8.0%

8.2%

6.8%

6.3%

5.6% 6.6%

4.9%

7.6%

8.3%

5.7%

4.0%

8.2%

3.3%

6.6% 6.2% 5.8% 5.4% 5.4% 5.1% 5.0% 5.3% 5.3% 5.7% 6.2%

Official or "Headline" Unemployment

Q2 2010

2.7%

2.5%

2.3%

2.4%

3.9%

14.0%

7.9%

7.3%

6.4%

5.3%

4.3%

3.5%

3.2%

3.0%

2.9%

2.4%

2.9% 2.6%

2.5% 2.6%

3.0%

4.3% 4.1% 3.9% 3.7% 3.1% 2.9% 2.8%

2.5%

2.6%

2.9%

3.2%

3.5%

3.9%

4.1%

4.3%

4.6%

4.8%

4.4%

4.8%

5.3%

4.5%

5.4%

12.0%

Q4 2009

Q2 2009

Q4 2008

Q2 2008

Q4 2007

Q2 2007

Q4 2006

2.0%

5.4%

10.4% 10.1% 9.9% 10.2% 9.7% 9.1% 8.7% 8.2% 8.0% 7.6%

Marginally attached & part-time for economic reasons (U-6)

Q4 2014

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Q2 2006

Q4 2005

Q2 2005

0.0% Q4 2004

4.0% 4.8%

6.0% 4.5%

8.0%

5.6%

10.0%

5.6%

16.0%

Q2 2004

Q4 2003

Headline and U-6 Unemployment Rates are Retreating

Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilization in Utah

Jobs

| 41

Unemployment Insurance Claims Validate Downward Trend in Unemployment

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance per 1,000 Jobs seasonally adjusted

25.0 United States Utah 20.0

15.0

10.0

5.0

Nov-15

Nov-14

Nov-13

Nov-12

Nov-11

Nov-10

Nov-09

Nov-08

Nov-07

Nov-06

Nov-05

0.0

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Analysis of DOL Data

42

|

Jobs

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2016

Utah Private Sector Job Growth Leads the Way, Federal Government Jobs Back to 2005 Levels Job Index for Utah Private and Public Sectors seasonally adjusted, 100 = level at 2009 trough

125.0 Private Federal Government State & Local Government

120.0

Federal Government Response to the Recession

115.0 110.0 105.0 100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0

Dec-14

Dec-13

Dec-12

Dec-11

Dec-10

Dec-09

Dec-08

Dec-07

Dec-06

Dec-05

80.0

Note: Federal Government Response to the Recession / 2010 Census Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Analysis of BLS Data

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Jobs

|

43

Utah and U.S. Wage Growth Remains Modest

Utah Real Average Hourly Earnings for Private Nonfarm Payroll Employment seasonally adjusted

$29.00 Utah United States

$28.00 $27.00 $26.00 $25.00 $24.00 $23.00 $22.00 $21.00

Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15

$20.00

Note: Y-axis does not start at zero; data are adjusted using the CPI-U (100 = November, 2015).

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Analysis of BLS Data

44

|

Income

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2016

Composition of Income is Dramatically Changing

Utah Components of Personal Income 100% 90%

6.4% 12.2%

5.5%

14.5%

7.9%

14.5%

80%

9.7%

15.6%

11.0%

18.3%

9.9%

15.2%

13.6%

16.5%

17.8%

68.3%

68.5%

2010

2014

17.8%

70% 60% 50% 40%

81.3%

79.9%

77.6%

74.7%

70.7%

72.3%

1990

2000

30% 20% 10% 0%

1950

1960 Transfers

1970

1980

Dividends, Interest, and Rent

Net Earnings

Note: Transfers are the sum of government social benefits and net current transfer receipts from business.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Analysis of BEA Data

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Income | 45

Seven States Have Lower Per Capita Income than Utah

Per Capita Personal Income 2014; U.S. = $46,049

WA $49,610 MT $39,903 OR $41,220

ID $36,734 WY $54,584

CA $49,985

NV $40,742

ND $55,802

VT $46,428 MN $48,998

SD $45,279

NE $47,557 UT $37,664

AZ $37,895

CO $48,869

NM $37,091

WI $44,186

KS $44,891

OK $43,637

IA $44,937

MO $41,639

AR $37,782

PA $47,679

OH $42,236 IN IL $47,643 $39,578 WV $36,132 KY $37,396

TX $45,669

MD $54,176

CT $64,864 NJ $57,620 DE $46,378

VA $50,345

SC $36,677 GA $38,980

LA $42,030 FL $42,737

HI $46,034

NH $52,773 MA $58,737

NC $39,171

TN $40,457

AL MS $34,431 $37,512 AK $54,012

NY $55,611

MI $40,740

ME $40,745

$34,431 - $39,000 $39,001 - $44,000 $44,001 - $52,000 $52,001 - $70,000

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

46

|

Income

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2016

Utah has 9th Highest Median Household Income

Median Household Income 2014; U.S. = $53,657

WA $59,068 MT $51,102 OR $58,875

ID $53,438 WY $55,690

CA $60,487

NV $49,875

ND $60,730

VT $60,708 MN $67,244

AZ $49,254

CO $60,940

NM $46,686

KS $53,444

OK $47,199

NH $73,397 WI $58,080

SD $53,053

NE $56,870 UT $63,383

IA $57,810

MO $56,630

AR $44,922

TX $53,875

HI $71,223

MA $63,151

NY $54,310

MI $52,005

PA $55,173

OH $49,644 IN IL $54,916 $48,060 WV $39,552 KY $42,786

CT $70,161 NJ $65,243 DE $57,522

VA $66,155

MD $76,165

NC $46,784

TN $43,716

SC $44,929 AL MS $35,521 $42,278

AK $67,629

ME $51,710

GA $49,555

LA $42,406 FL $46,140

$35,521 - $47,000 $47,001 - $56,000 $56,001 - $63,000 $63,001 - $77,000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Income | 47

Utah Median Household Income Higher than Nation and Recovering

Real Median Household Income $75,000 Utah United States $70,000

$65,000

$60,000

$55,000

$50,000

$45,000

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

$40,000

Note: Y-axis does not start at zero; data are adjusted using the CPI-U (100 = 2012).

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

48

|

Income

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2016

Utah has Among the Most Equal Distribution of Income in the Nation

Gini Index

2014; U.S. = 0.484

WA 0.45 MT 0.45 OR 0.46

ND 0.47

ID 0.45 WY 0.43 NV 0.44

CA 0.49

UT 0.43

AZ 0.47

MN 0.45

SD 0.47

WI 0.44

NM 0.48

IL 0.48

KS 0.46 OK 0.47

MO 0.46

AK 0.42 HI 0.43

PA 0.47 WV 0.45

AL 0.48

DC 0.52 VA 0.47

ME 0.46 NH 0.44 RI

MA 0.55 0.49 NJ CT 0.480.50 MD 0.45 DE 0.45

NC 0.47

TN 0.45

AR 0.47

LA 0.49

OH 0.46

IN 0.45

KY 0.47

MS 0.48 TX 0.48

NY 0.51

MI 0.46

IA 0.44

NE 0.44 CO 0.46

VT 0.44

SC 0.48 GA 0.48

0 = Complete Equality 1 = Complete Inequality 0.42 - 0.45 FL 0.48

0.46 - 0.47 0.48 - 0.50 0.51 - 0.55

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Income | 49

Consistent With Income and Employment Growth, Growth in Utah Sales Outpaces the National Average Year-over-Year Change in Total Quarterly Retail Sales 15%

Utah United States

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15

-15%

Source: Moody's Analytics

50

|

Sales and Prices

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2016

Almost a Quarter of All Retail Sales are Associated with Motor Vehicles Nonstore Retailers Also Large Composition of Utah Retail Sales: 2015 Motor vehicle & parts dealers

23.1%

General merchandise stores

14.4%

Nonstore retailers

12.7%

Food & beverage stores

10.9%

Food services and drinking places

9.4%

Gasoline stations

8.7%

Building material & garden equipment & supplies dealers

6.2%

Clothing & clothing accessories stores

3.6%

Health & personal care stores

3.3%

Furniture & home furnishings stores

2.3%

Sporting goods; hobby; book; & music stores

2.1%

Miscellaneous store retailers

1.8%

Electronics & appliance stores

1.6% 0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Source: Moody's Analytics

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Sales and Prices

|

51

Utah Jazz Tickets are a Bargain

Average NBA Ticket Prices: 2014/2015 Season New York Knicks Los Angeles Lakers Chicago Bulls Los Angeles Clippers Miami Heat Boston Celtics Brooklyn Nets Houston Rockets San Antonio Spurs Phoenix Suns Denver Nuggets Portland Trail Blazers Dallas Mavericks Oklahoma City Thunder Milwaukee Bucks Golden State Warriors Sacramento Kings Cleveland Cavaliers Utah Jazz Toronto Raptors Orlando Magic Philadelphia 76ers Detroit Pistons Minnesota Timberwolves Atlanta Hawks Washington Wizards Indiana Pacers Memphis Grizzlies Charlotte Hornets New Orleans Pelicans

$123.38 $102.25 $82.33 $78.43 $78.30 $70.79 $66.15 $65.60 $58.65 $56.10 $54.00 $52.90 $51.80 $51.35 $50.30 $47.38 $46.32 $43.31 $43.19 $42.94 $39.40 $39.25 $38.80 $37.27 $35.26 $32.70 $32.59 $31.48 $30.60 $30.20

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

Source: NBA Fan Cost Index

52

|

Sales and Prices

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2016

How Low Can They Go? Gas Prices Continue to Fall with Oil Prices

Oil and Motor Fuel Prices $4.50

West Texas Intermediate Spot $ per Barrel Utah Gas $ per gallon United States Gas $ per gallon

$4.00 $3.50

$160.00 $140.00 $120.00

$3.00

$100.00

$2.50

$80.00 $2.00

$60.00 $1.50

$40.00

$1.00

$20.00

$0.00

$0.00 Nov-05 Feb-06 May-06 Aug-06 Nov-06 Feb-07 May-07 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15

$0.50

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration and Oil Price Information Service

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Sales and Prices

|

53

Utah Housing Prices are Rebounding

Utah Median Existing Home Prices seasonally adjusted

$350,000 St. George, UT Metropolitan Statistical Area Provo-Orem Metropolitan Statistical Area Salt Lake City, UT Metropolitan Statistical Area Ogden-Clearfield, UT Metropolitan Statistical Area

$300,000

$250,000

$200,000

$150,000

Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15

$100,000

Note: Y-axis does not start at zero.

Source: Core Logic and Moody's Analytics

54

|

Real Estate and Construction

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2016

Home Price Contraction and Expansion in Utah More Pronounced Purchase-Only Home Price Index seasonally adjusted; 1991 Q1 = 100

350 Utah United States 300

250

200

150

100

50

Sep-15

Sep-14

Sep-13

Sep-12

Sep-11

Sep-10

Sep-09

Sep-08

Sep-07

Sep-06

Sep-05

Sep-04

Sep-03

Sep-02

Sep-01

Sep-00

Sep-99

Sep-98

Sep-97

Sep-96

Sep-95

0

Source: Federal Housing Finance Authority

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Real Estate and Construction

|

55

Will Downward Trend in Housing Inventory Push Prices Higher?

Utah Home For-Sale Inventory 25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

Oct-15

Jul-15

Apr-15

Jan-15

Oct-14

Jul-14

Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Oct-12

Jul-12

Apr-12

Jan-12

Oct-11

Jul-11

Apr-11

Jan-11

Oct-10

Jul-10

Apr-10

Jan-10

0

Source: Zillow

56

|

Real Estate and Construction

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2016

Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15

Utah Foreclosure Rates at Improved Levels

Mortgage Foreclosure Rates

5% United States

Utah

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Real Estate and Construction

| 57

Underwater Mortgages Less of a Problem in Utah

Percent of Mortgages with Negative/Near-Negative Equity Q3 2015; U.S. = 10.3%

MT 4% OR 4.9%

ND 4.6%

MN 7.6%

ID 8.2%

NV 21.9% CA 8.5%

VT 11.5% WI 11.2%

UT 5.7%

AZ 17.7%

NE 7.1% CO 4%

NM 11.7%

KS 6.8% OK 6.9%

IN IL 14.7% 5.8% MO 8.5%

AR 11.5%

OH 14.2%

PA DC 7.2%6%

VA 5%

KY 6.9%

CT 12% NJ RI 13.2%14.8% MD 15.7% DE 10.3%

NC 8.6%

TN 8.3% AL 10.2%

TX 2.7%

AK 3.5%

IA 8%

NY 5.2%

MI 12.8%

NH 11.6% MA 8.7%

SC 9.7% GA 11.8% FL 20.7%

2.7% - 7% 7.1% - 13% 13.1% - 22% no data

HI 3.2%

Source: Core Logic

58

|

Real Estate and Construction

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2016

Utah Permitted Construction at Improved Levels

Utah Residential Permitting Mobile Homes/Cabins Multi-family Units Single-family Units

28,285

17,000

8,000 7,500

9,084

9,300

2015

11,000

8,587

2014

9,820

3,464

3,568 6,454

2011

2,890 5,936

2010

5,217

2009

4,951

5,513

4,544

9,066

2008

5,248

11,246 10,023

7,626

19,888

20,912

15,211

10,603 10,488

13,510

14,466

2002

16,515

13,851

2001

14,561

1999

13,463

14,476

1998

2000

14,079

1997

15,139

13,904

10,000

5,000

19,200 18,030

4,149

5,089

15,000

3,629

4,443

5,265

18,154

20,539

6,290

19,675 19,941

5,853

20,350

17,724

20,687

7,190

6,425

20,000

22,836 21,743

21,558

5,658

24,293

23,737

6,562

26,322

5,555

25,000

5,762

30,000

2016

2013

2012

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

1996

1995

0

Note: 2015 data are estimates; 2016 data are forecasts.

Source: Ivory-Boyer Construction Database

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Real Estate and Construction

|

59

Utah Permitted Construction Value Approaching Pre-Recession Peak

Utah Permit Value $ millions

Additions, Alterations, and Repairs Nonresidential Residential

$800 $1,500

$950 $2,000

$974 $1,398

$785 $1,106

$729

$3,248

2014

$4,200

$3,258

$652 $1,236

$1,020

2013

$1,667

2010

$1,885

$672

$1,674

2009

$925

$660 $1,054

$1,877

$2,197

$781 $1,919

$3,264

$3,946

$3,600

$865

$980

$3,773

2008

$4,663

$3,553

$3,046

$4,577

$3,963

$1,017

$393 $2,491

2002

$5,148

$3,388

$897

$563 $970 $2,353

$2,140

2000

$3,781

2001

$583

$2,238

1999

$1,213

$537

$461 $2,189

$1,148

$3,970 $3,936 $3,886

1998

$1,371 $1,944

1997

$952 $2,105

1996

$1,000

$833 $409

$2,000

$1,855

$3,000

$386

$3,443 $3,096

$407

$3,722 $3,798

$1,195

$4,000

$497

$4,561

$6,550 $6,500

$5,620

$1,090

$5,000

$476

$5,119

$6,994

$2,051

$6,000

$1,218

$708

$6,588

$1,588

$7,000

$7,409

$4,956

$8,000

2016

2015

2012

2011

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

1995

$0

Note: 2015 data are estimates; 2016 data are forecasts.

Source: Ivory-Boyer Construction Database

60

|

Real Estate and Construction

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2016

Could Labor Supply be Suppressing Construction Job Growth?

Utah Construction Jobs as a Percent of Total Jobs 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1%

Nov-95 Jun-96 Jan-97 Aug-97 Mar-98 Oct-98 May-99 Dec-99 Jul-00 Feb-01 Sep-01 Apr-02 Nov-02 Jun-03 Jan-04 Aug-04 Mar-05 Oct-05 May-06 Dec-06 Jul-07 Feb-08 Sep-08 Apr-09 Nov-09 Jun-10 Jan-11 Aug-11 Mar-12 Oct-12 May-13 Dec-13 Jul-14 Feb-15 Sep-15

0%

Source: Kem C. Garnder Policy Institute Analysis of BLS data

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Real Estate and Construction

|

61

Utah's Tourism Industry Continues to Thrive

Total Visitor Spending in Utah $ millions

$8,000

$7,805 $7,507

$7,500

$7,318 $6,955

$6,925

$7,000

$6,769

$6,500

$6,000

$6,317

$5,908 $5,779

$5,689

$5,500

$5,000

$4,500

$4,000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Note: Y-axis does not start at zero.

Source: TNS Global

62

|

Travel and Tourism

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2016

Utah's Mighty Five are a Mighty Hit

Utah State and National Park Visits thousands

8,000 National Park Visits

State Park Visits

7,239

7,000 6,002

6,000 5,330

5,446 5,165

5,000 4,377

6,073

6,556

6,328

5,671

4,925

4,821

4,843

4,565

4,495

6,305

5,094 4,804 4,063

4,000

3,741

3,000

2,000

1,000

0

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Note: In 2013 the Utah Department of Natural Resources changed its methodology for counting state park visits.

Source: National Park Service and Utah Department of Natural Resources

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Travel and Tourism

|

63

The Greatest Snow on Earth Took a Holiday in 2014/2015

Utah Skier Days thousands

4,300

4,259 4,223

4,200

4,162

4,100

4,062

4,082

4,000

4,048

4,032

3,973 3,947

3,900 3,803

3,800

3,700

3,600

3,500

2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015

Source: Ski Utah

64

|

Travel and Tourism

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2016

How Will Convention Hotel Impact Occupancy Rates?

Utah Hotel Occupancy Rates 66% 64%

63.4%

63.7%

62% 60.7%

60.1%

60%

59.4%

59.0%

59.1%

2012

2013

57.8%

58% 56.1%

56% 54%

53.1%

52% 50% 48% 46%

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2014

Note: Y-axis does not start at zero.

Source: Rocky Mountain Lodging Report

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Travel and Tourism

|

65

Global Slowdown Evident in Export Numbers

Change in Export Value: 2014 - 2015e U.S. = -6.9% WA -2.6% MT -10.0% OR -3.6%

ID -16.3% WY -34.9%

NV 11.7% CA -4.2%

CO -3.5%

NM -1.1%

HI 35.9%

WI -3.5%

SD -11.9%

KS -11.9% OK -16.9%

IA -13.3%

MI -5.2%

IN IL -7.2% -5.1% MO -3.1%

AR -13.4%

NY -9.4%

WV -23.3%

OH -2.9%

PA -1.5%

VA -5.5%

KY 2.0%

ME 1.2% NH -4.7%

RI -10.0% CT MA -3.9% -8.5% NJ -12.0%

MD -18.5% DE 0.9%

NC -4.0%

TN -1.0% AL MS -5.4% -0.4%

TX -12.8%

AK -8.5%

VT -12.7%

MN -6.6%

NE -15.9%

UT 8.4%

AZ 7.1%

ND -28.4%

SC 4.6% GA -2.0%

LA -23.8% FL -8.2%

-34.9% - -20.0% -19.9% - 0.0% 0.1% - 5.0% 5.1% - 35.9%

Note: 2015 estimates are based on activity through November 2015.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Analysis of U.S. Census Bureau Data

66

|

International Trade

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2016

Modest Gold Price Increases in 2015 Buoyed Utah's Export Activity

Value of Utah's Commodity Exports $ millions

$25,000

Gold Excluding Gold

$20,000

$18,968

$19,260

$16,111

$15,000

$13,808

$13,333 $12,306

$8,181

$5,152

$3,800 $8,506

$11,737

$8,037

2010

$7,469

2009

$7,182

$4,993

$4,062

2008

$7,231

2007

$6,626

2006

$3,035

$2,632

2005

$5,344

2004

$4,780

2003

$4,169

2002

$4,104

$1,421

$4,731

$3,310

$1,385

$1,797

$4,119

$2,734

$0

$4,542

$2,744

$5,000

$1,963

$6,067

$6,244

$7,815 $6,801

$8,074

$10,337 $11,790

$10,306

$10,000

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015e

Note: 2015 estimates are based on activity through November 2015.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Analysis of U.S. Census Bureau Data

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

International Trade

|

67

Utah Exports Far and Wide

Utah's Trading Partners $ millions

Region World Total United Kingdom Hong Kong Canada Mexico China Taiwan Japan South Korea Netherlands Singapore Germany Switzerland Australia India Italy Thailand France Belgium Philippines Rest of World

2014 Actual $12,306 $1,415 $1,761 $1,421 $742 $892 $677 $553 $404 $388 $545 $256 $255 $184 $325 $140 $532 $114 $268 $164 $1,270

2015 Estimate $13,333 $3,501 $1,785 $1,422 $885 $836 $715 $544 $381 $366 $365 $265 $218 $191 $185 $165 $140 $130 $129 $116 $996

14-15e Change 8.4% 147.4% 1.4% 0.1% 19.2% -6.3% 5.6% -1.7% -5.6% -5.7% -33.2% 3.4% -14.6% 3.8% -43.1% 18.2% -73.6% 13.9% -51.8% -29.2% -21.5%

Note: 2015 estimates are based on activity through November 2015.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Analysis of U.S. Census Bureau Data

68

|

International Trade

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2016

Utah Primary Metal Manufacturing Exports Reflect the Refining of Gold from Other States Utah's Commodity Exports $ millions

Commodity All Commodities Primary Metal Mfg Computer & Electronic Products Chemicals Food & Kindred Products Transportation Equipment Miscellaneous Manufactured Commodities Machinery, Except Electrical Minerals & Ores Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components Fabricated Metal Products, Nesoi Plastics & Rubber Products Waste and Scrap Agricultural Products Furniture & Fixtures Nonmetallic Mineral Products Beverages & Tobacco Products Textiles & Fabrics Paper Other Special Classification Provisions Textile Mill Products Other Commodities

2014 Actual $12,306 $4,198 $2,350 $1,047 $991 $906 $656 $495 $370 $308 $219 $191 $122 $77 $35 $45 $29 $16 $32 $64 $25 $129

2015 Estimate $13,333 $5,592 $2,143 $1,100 $921 $775 $631 $514 $346 $333 $202 $179 $172 $102 $52 $44 $39 $38 $28 $24 $21 $86

14-15e Change 8.4% 33.2% -8.8% 5.0% -7.1% -14.5% -3.8% 3.9% -6.4% 8.3% -7.9% -6.4% 41.4% 33.0% 48.1% -2.5% 33.8% 141.1% -10.9% -63.1% -18.7% -33.3%

Note: 2015 estimates are based on activity through November 2015.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Analysis of U.S. Census Bureau Data

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

International Trade

|

69

Federal Government is Utah's Largest Landlord Percentage of Land that is Federally Owned U.S. = 27.4%

WA 28.5% MT 29.0% OR 52.9%

ID 61.6% WY 48.1%

NV 84.9% CA 45.8%

UT 64.9%

AZ 38.6%

ND 3.9%

MN 6.8% WI 5.1%

SD 5.4% NE 1.1%

CO 35.9%

NM 34.7%

VT 7.8%

KS 0.5% OK 1.6%

WV MI 10.0% 7.4%

IA 0.3% IL 1.1% MO 3.7%

AK 61.2%

LA 4.6%

AL 2.6%

NJ 3.7%

RI

CT 0.8% 0.3%

MD 3.1% DE 2.4%

NC 7.7%

TN 4.8%

AR 9.4%

PA 2.1%

NH 13.8%

MA 1.2%

NY 0.3%

VA 9.9%

KY 4.3%

MS 5.1% TX 1.8%

IN 1.7%

OH 1.2%

ME 1.1%

SC 4.4% GA 4.0% FL 13.2%

0.3% - 5.0% 5.1% - 25.0% 25.1% - 50.0% 50.1% - 100.0%

HI 20.0% Note: Figures understate federal lands in each state and the total in the United States. They include only BLM, FS, FWS, NPS, and DOD lands. Thus they exclude lands managed by other agencies, such as the Bureau of Reclamation.

Source: Congressional Research Service

70

|

Resources

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2016

Utah Water Use is High Compared to Other Western States

Domestic Water Use: 2010 Gallons per Capita per Day (gpcd). Includes both indoor and outdoor use.

64 111 113

80

107 144

51

167

111

108

80

59 44

44

76

80 67

88

73

90

106 100

92

76

65 72 75 80 80

75 70

80 85

147

79

65

95 134

79

62

93

168

70 44

100 79

104 87

Source: Molly A. Maupin et al., Estimated Use of Water in the United States in 2010. U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1405, November 2014

The Vast Majority of Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Developed Water is Used for Agriculture

M&I - 18% Agriculture - 82%

Source: Division of Water Resources

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Resources

|

71

Should Large Water Users Pay More?

City Water Rate Structures $12.00Tuscon Denver

Price per thousand gallons

$10.00-

$8.00-

$6.00-

Las Vegas

$4.00-

Phoenix Ogden Salt Lake City

$2.00-

St. George

Boise

00

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

Gallons Source: Office of the Utah Legislative Auditor General and City Water Departments

72

|

Resources

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2016

Utah is Making Progress on Air Quality And There's More to Do Utah Statewide Emissions

Days PM 2.5 Air Quality Standards exceeded in Salt Lake County

millions of tons, combined inventory

3.00

45.00 40

40.00

2.544

41 37

2.50

34

35.00

2.178 2.056

2.00

32

30.00 1.769

25.00 1.50 20.00

18 18 17

15.00

1.00

22

21

23

14

10.00 8

0.50

5.00

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2011

2005

2008

2006

2005

2004

2002

2003

0.00

0.00

Source: Utah Division of Air Quality

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Resources

|

73

Utah Plans for a Rainy Day

State of Utah Budget Reserve Accounts $600

600 Medicaid Budget Reserve Account General Fund Budget Reserve Account

$507

Education Fund Budget Reserve Account

$500

500 $448

$429

$419

$403

$400

$141

400

$141 $314

$194

$134

$189

$300

300

$277 $255 $233 $210

$171

$200

$132 $147

$100

$105 $235

200 $349

$123 $269

$290

$230

100

$106 $123

$0

$133

$143 $105

$110

FY 2010

FY 2011

$144

$41

FY 2005

FY 2006

FY 2007

FY 2008

FY 2009

FY 2012

FY 2013

FY 2014

FY 2015

0

Source: Utah Governor's Office of Management and Budget

74

|

Fiscal

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2016

Utah Invests in People

FY 2016 State of Utah Appropriations General Government 7%

Law Enforcement 5%

Transportation 7% Debt Services 3% Capital Facilities 2%

Public Education 30%

$14.2 Billion

Social Services 34% Higher Education 12% Note: Operating and Capital Budgets; excludes proprietary, fiduciary, and capital project funds Source: Utah Office of the Legislative Fiscal Analyst

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Fiscal

|

75

Federal Funds Comprise 1 in Every 4 State Budget Dollars

FY 2016 State of Utah Budget Sources Dedicated Credits 9% Local Education Revenue 5%

Other 10%

Transportation Investment Fund 4%

General Fund 17%

Transportation Fund 3%

$14.2 Billion Federal Funds 26% Education Fund 26%

Note: Operating and Capital Budgets; excludes proprietary, fiduciary, and capital project funds Source: Utah Office of the Legislative Fiscal Analyst

76

|

Fiscal

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2016

Sales Tax Earmarks Continue to Increase

State of Utah Sales and Use Tax Collections $ millions

$3,000

3,000.0 Earmarked Sales and Use Tax $2,450

$2,500

2,500.0

$2,325 $2,211 $2,108

$2,000

$1,906 12%

$2,065

$1,500

$1,409

$1,704

97%

97%

98%

97%

$1,791 11%

15%

$1,541

17%

21%

21%

24% 22%

23%

2,000.0

18%

$1,000 97%

$1,915

16% $1,824

$1,677 $1,475 $1,485 $1,473

$2,038

$2,109

97%

95%

88%

84% 85%

1,500.0

89% 82%

83%

79%

79%

78%

77%

1,000.0

76%

$500

500.0

FY 2017f

FY 2016f

FY 2015

FY 2014

FY 2013

FY 2012

FY 2011

FY 2010

FY 2009

FY 2008

FY 2007

FY 2006

FY 2005

FY 2004

FY 2003

FY 2002

FY 2001

0.0 FY 2000

$0

Note: f = forecast Source: Utah Governor's Office of Management and Budget and Utah State Tax Commission

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Fiscal

|

77

The Utah Economy Mirrors the Nation's

US and Utah GDP by Industry Percent of Total GDP: 2015

Agriculture; Forestry; Fishing; and Hunting Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transportation and Warehousing Information Finance and Insurance Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Professional; Scientific; and Technical Services Management of Companies and Enterprises Administrative and Waste Management Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts; Entertainment; and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services Other Services; Except Government Government

Utah United States 0%

5%

10%

15%

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Analysis of BEA Data

78

|

Economic Strength and Diversity

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2016

Utah's Diverse Economy Means Stability Hachman Index: 2015

WA 96.3 MT 85.9 OR 95.6

ND 67.9

ID 91.5 WY 54.4 NV 77.1

CA 97.3

UT 97.9

AZ 97.1

MN 96.4

SD 83.9

WI 91.3

CO 95.6

NM 85.3

IL 97.7

KS 92.1 OK 71.1

MO 97.6

TX 91.3

HI 87.4

PA 96.6

OH 96.4

IN 91.1

KY 93.5

WV 79.6

AR 92.2

AL 95.3

VA 94.7

NH 96.3 RI

MA 93.1 91.8 CT NJ 94.5 96 MD 93.9 DE 92.2

NC 97.8

TN 96.7 MS 91.8

AK 69.8

NY 93.9

MI 96.2

IA 89.2

NE 91.4

ME 92.3

VT 93.4

SC 95.2 GA 97.8

0 = Least Diverse 100 = Most Diverse

LA 92.4 FL 94.9

0 - 80.0 80.1 - 95.0 95.1 - 100.0

Note: A Hachman Index value of 100 means that the distribution of employment among industries is exactly the same as the nation. The closer the value to 100, the more diverse the state's economy.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Analysis of BEA Data

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Economic Strength and Diversity

|

79

Utah Unicorns U-ni-corn [yoo-ni-kawrn], n., used in venture capital to denote startup companies whose valuation exceeds $1 billion

1985 IPO Jan 1985 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Acquired in 2010 by Attachmate for $2.2 billion

1994 Acquired by Novell for $885 million

2007 Acquired by Symantec for $830 million; 600 employees

2009 Acquired by Adobe for $1.8 billion; 1200 employees

2010 Acquired by PE Firm Thoma Bravo; currently $1B+valuation 900 employees

2011 IPO exit of $1.5 billion; 450 employees

2012 Acquired by Blackstone Group for $2 billion; 5500 employees

2012 $1.6 billion exit; 850 employees

2013 IPO exit of $500 million; 500 employees

2014 Raised $100 million at $1 billion valuation

2014 Raised $150 million at $1 billion valuation

2014 Raised $113 million at $1 billion valuation

2014 $1.5 billion current market capitalization

2015 Raised $200 million at $2 billion valuation

2015 Acquired by SunEdison for $2.2 billion

On Deck â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Fastest Growing Startups 2015 Raised $70 million at $500 million valuation

2015 Over $100 million revenue run rate

2015 #11 on the Inc. 5000 list (18,787% 3-year growth)

Source: Consultation with Alta Ventures and published reports.

80

|

Economic Strength and Diversity

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2016

Dips and Cliffs Universal Curves

The Dip

Jan-00

Results

The Cliff

Effort Source: The Dip, Seth Godin

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Decision Curves

|

81

Informed Decisions Data, Information, Decisions 200% 190%

Probability of Making a Good Decision

180% 170% 160% 150% 140% 130% 120% 110%

Jan-00

100% Good Data and Information

82

|

Decision Curves

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2016

KEM C. GARDNER POLICY INSTITUTE ADVISORY BOARD

S A LT L A K E C H A M B E R E X E C U T I V E B O A R D The Executive Board serves as the governing board for the state's largest business association and furthers its mission to stand as the voice of business, support membersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; success and champion community prosperity.

Advisory Board members provide strategic direction to the institute and help establish it as an enduring community asset that assists elected officials, business and community leaders, and the public to make informed decisions.

Conveners Michael O. Leavitt Mitt Romney Board Scott Anderson, Co-Chair Gail Miller, Co-Chair Doug Anderson Deborah Bayle Lane Beattie Cynthia A. Berg Roger Boyer Ken Bullock Wilford Clyde Sophia M. DiCaro Lisa Eccles Spencer P. Eccles Matt Eyring Kem C. Gardner Christian Gardner Matthew S. Holland Clark Ivory Ron Jibson Mike S. Leavitt Vivian S. Lee

Lori Chillingworth, Chair Keith McMullin, Vice Chair Lane Beattie Bruce Bingham Jake Boyer Terry H. Buckner Gerald Causse Cindy Crane John Dahlstrom Spencer P. Eccles Chris Gamvroulas Natalie Gochnour David R. Golden Val Hale

Kimberly Gardner Martin Ann Millner Cristina Ortega Jason Perry Taylor Randall Jill Remington Love Brad Rencher Josh Romney Charles W. Sorenson James Lee Sorenson Vicki Varela Ruth V. Watkins Ted Wilson Natalie Gochnour, Director

Victor Ingalls Ronald W. Jibson Brent Low Molly Mazzolini Derek Miller Jim Olson Scott W. Parson Ray D. Pickup Vasilios Priskos Steven Starks Nigel Steward Linda Wardell Bert R. Zimmerli

Ex Officio Senator Orrin Hatch Governor Gary Herbert Speaker Greg Hughes Senate President Wayne Niederhauser Representative Brian King Senator Gene Davis Mayor Ben McAdams

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

I

David Eccles School of Business 1655 E Campus Center Dr. Salt Lake City, UT 84112-8939 801-587-3860 gardner.utah.edu

I

I

AN INITIATIVE OF THE DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS