Utah Informed 2023

Page 1

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS I UNIVERSITY OF UTAH In Partnership with the Salt Lake Chamber

We are an honest broker of INFORMED RESEARCH that guides INFORMED DISCUSSIONS and leads to INFORMED DECISIONS ™

KEM
C. GARDNER POLICY INSTITUTE

Dear friends,

This year at the Great Salt Lake Summit, Utah policy leaders “leveled up.” They assessed the current condition of Utah’s salty inland sea and considered needed changes to protect human health, the natural environment, and the Utah economy.

Utah House Speaker Brad Wilson, who convened the Summit, said, “The Great Salt Lake may be the most important cause of my public service.”

His statement and supporting actions resonate. Each of us has the opportunity, and even responsibility, to contribute to the betterment of Utah and the world. When we focus our energies and engage in consequential service, we build a better future, not just for ourselves, but for our children and grandchildren.

In Utah Informed, we share 78 pages of compelling charts, quotes, maps, phrases, and schematics that help us better understand Utah and our world. We call it “visual intellection” and invite you to consider how this information can help you in your community service. For example, consider…

- Housing costs – The mounting cost of homeownership as mortgage rates rise.

- Caregivers – The one in five Utahns in their prime working years who also serve as a family caregiver to a person with a health problem or disability.

- Maternal health – The estimated 16.2% of new mothers who experience the symptoms of postpartum depression.

- Natural decrease – The six Utah counties that experienced more deaths than births in 2022.

These and other factoids illustrate areas of need and help us focus our energies.

The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute serves as an honest broker of informed research, that guides informed discussions, and leads to INFORMED DECISIONS™. We hope this eighth edition of Utah Informed will help you “level up” as you serve Utah.

Thanks for your interest and service,

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS 1 January 2023
Natalie Gochnour Director, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Rachel Hayes Dean, David Eccles School of Business Derek Miller President & CEO, Salt Lake Chamber

Contents

Current Affairs

Words and phrases to know in 2023 ................ 5

Top Google searches in the United States, 2022 ..... 6

Share of Utah population growth by components of change, 2015–2022 .............. 8

U.S. Senate campaign spending and donations for Utah candidates, 2010–2022 .................. 9

U.S. sports participation rates since Title IX ......... 10 Market value of U.S. Men’s National Team World Cup players .............................. 11

U.S. egg prices compared to avian flu cases, 2022 .. 12

U.S. city average year-over inflation rate, 2010–2022 ..13

Utah Economy

Utah and U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index, 2020–2022 ..................................... 15

Percent change in U.S. and Utah employment, 2000–2022 ..................................... 15

Per capita personal income growth, 2015 to 2020 .. 17

U.S. household checkable deposits, 2002-2022..... 18

U.S. personal savings rate, 2002-2022 .............. 19

U.S. supply chain pressure index, 1998-2022 ....... 20

Loaded and emptied imports and exports at 3 busiest U.S. ports, 2018-2022 .................. 21

Annual returns for a portfolio in 60% stocks and 40% bonds, 1928–2022 ..................... 22

U.S. labor force participation rate among workers 55+, 2010–2022 ........................ 23

Teenagers as a share of labor force, 2021 ........... 24

Public Finance

Corporate and individual income tax revenues as a percent of Utah GDP, 1994–2020 ............ 25 Federal funds effective rate. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

Quarter-over change in federal government interest payments, 2000–2022 .................. 27

Share of property taxes charged in Utah by type of property, 1955-2021..................... 28

Percent change in real tax revenue collections in Utah by tax type, 1972–2022.................. 29 Corporate profits as a share of GDP ................ 30

Real Estate and Construction

Utah median sales and monthly mortgage payments, 2015–2022 .......................... 31

Average asking apartment rent in Utah’s largest metro counties, 2000–2022 .............. 32

Year-over percent change in Utah median sales price, 2021–2022 .......................... 33 30-year mortgage rates, 1971–2022 ............... 34

Share of Utah homebuyers and down payment percentage by age, 2021 .............. 35

Share of Utah mortgages past due or in foreclosure, 2000-2022 .......................... 36

Percent change in real effective rents on office leases between 2019 and 2022 ............ 37

Share of Utah active listings selling the same day, 2016–2022 ........................... 38

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2023

2 Kem
C. Gardner Policy Institute

Travel and Tourism

Utah and U.S. travel indicators, 2019–2021 ......... 39

Statewide leisure and hospitality taxable sales, 2020–2022 compared to 2019 baseline .......... 40

Change in hotel and restaurant spending and jobs, 2020–2022 compared to 2019 baseline ..... 41

Salt Lake City International Airport total passengers, 2020–2022 compared to 2019 baseline................................... 42

Percent change in Utah’s national park and state park visitation, 2021-2022 compared to 2019 baseline ................................ 43

Utah skier days, 2001–2002 to 2021–2022 ......... 44

Energy and Environment

Crude oil prices, 1979–2022 ....................... 45

Mountain states’ electricity feedstocks, 2022 ....... 46

Intermountain West refining capacity, 2022 ........ 47

Reliability metrics of electricity distribution in western states, 2020–2021 .................... 48

Average annual elevation of Great Salt Lake, 1903–2022 ..................................... 49

Price components in a gallon of Utah motor gasoline, 2022 ........................... 50

Health

Utah's ranking on four composite measures of states' COVID-19 response .................... 51

Utah adult uninsured rates by race and ethnicity, 2019 compared to 2021 ............... 52

Percent change in annual average employment in Utah's health care and social assistance industry, 2002-2022............................. 53

Number of family caregivers in Utah, 2015–2030 ... 54 Prevalence of Utah family caregiving by demographic group, 2015–2020 ................ 55

Share of Utah's new mothers who experience postpartum depression symptoms, 2012-2021 .. 56

Utah adult health care indicators by home ownership status, 2021 ......................... 57 Utah adult health care indicators by home ownership status, 2021 ......................... 57

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS 3

Education

Absolute (percent) change in school age population by county, 2020–2060 ............... 58

Absolute (percent) change in college age population by county, 2020–2060 ............... 59

Kindergarten readiness in literacy by small area, 2016-2018 ................................ 60

Utah college enrollment within five years of graduating high school, cohorts 2008-2017. . . . . . 61 Utah median annual earnings, 2019 ............... 62

Share of children with family income above their parents’ family income, by child’s education level ................................. 62

FAFSA completion rates of USHE students, 2016–2021 ..................................... 63

Food insecurity among Utah college students, 2021 .................................. 64

Use of income tax revenue in Utah, 1931–2023 .... 65

Demographics

Population by region, 2022 ........................ 66

Historical and projected components of change, 1990–2060 ..................................... 67 Projected total county population change, 2020-2060 ...................................... 68

Highlights from Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2020–2021 ........................... 69

Utah historical and projected dependency ratios, 2010–2060 ............................... 70

County share of population growth, 2021–2022 ... 71

Utah population projection scenarios, 2025-2060 .. 72 Infant mortality and life expectancy by state, 2019 .. 73 U.S. fertility declines by region, 2010–2020 ........ 74

Counties that experienced natural decrease between 2021 and 2022 ........................ 75

Largest Hispanic or Latino multiracial populations in Utah, 2020 ....................... 76 Largest non-Hispanic multiracial populations in Utah, 2020 ....................... 76

Utah Informed

The whole point .................................. 78

4 Kem C.
Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2023
Editors: Jennifer Robinson and Natalie Roney
Contents

Words and phrases to know in 2023

n Cislunar – The space between Earth and the orbit of the moon. New technology and continuing innovation enable future cislunar missions.

n Dead pool – The point at which a reservoir no longer has enough water to flow downstream of the dam. Extreme drought conditions throughout Utah have dropped Lake Powell within 100 feet of its dead pool level.

n Dignity Index – A new tool of measuring political speech on its power to unite or divide. Starting as a pilot program in Utah, the Dignity Index has the potential to reshape political speech across America.

n Doughnut effect – Holes in the city centers created when workers shift away from city centers to the suburbs. Hybrid work environments have lured workers to suburban areas, and consumer demand has shifted with them, creating a doughnut effect of rising demand in less dense areas.

n eSIM – A hardwired or embedded SIM card for a phone. Newer phones are being sold with an eSIM in an effort to simplify switching mobile providers or plans.

n Finfluencer – A person who, by virtue of their popular or cultural status, has the ability to influence the financial decision-making process of others through promotions or recommendations on social media. Gen Z is more likely than any other generation to take financial advice from finfluencers, although one should use caution when considering their advice.

n Long COVID – A condition of COVID-19 where symptoms last more than four months. My neighbor was infected with COVID-19 six months ago, but he still can’t taste or smell due to long COVID.

n Nomophobia – A psychological condition when people have a fear of being detached from mobile phone connectivity. Rising rates of nomophobia highlight the need for face-to-face interactions and connections, with less time spent on mobile phones.

n Pain at the pump – A description of the financial impact of high gas prices. Americans felt pain at the pump as national average gas prices topped $5.00 per gallon in the summer of 2022.

n Shrinkflation – The practice of reducing a product’s size or quantity while continuing to offer it at the same price. Many businesses resort to shrinkflation to lower expenses as producer costs rise.

n Stan – An overzealous or obsessive fan. Her stans waited online for hours to purchase presale tickets to the concert.

n eVTOL vertiport – Land, water, or a building used for taking off and landing an electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. Urban planners are beginning to wonder how to incorporate eVTOL vertiports in cities as advanced air mobility is expected to take off within a decade.

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Current Affairs 5

How to help others

6 Current Affairs Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2023
Source: Google Trends Searches 1. Wordle 2. Election results 3. Betty
4. Queen
5. Bob Saget 6. Ukraine 7. Mega Millions 8. Powerball numbers 9. Anne
10. Jeffrey
News 1. Election results 2. Queen
passing 3. Ukraine 4. Powerball numbers 5. Hurricane Ian 6. Monkeypox 7. Texas school shooting 8. Will
9. Johnny
verdict 10. Roe v Wade Shortages 1. Diesel shortage 2. Baby formula shortage 3. Tampon shortage 4. Adderall shortage 5. Sriracha shortage 6. Food shortage 7. Cream cheese shortage 8. Avocado shortage 9. Lettuce shortage 10. Epidural shortage Near me 1. Gas prices near me 2. At home COVID test near me 3. Voting near me 4. Early voting near me 5. PCR test near me 6. COVID booster near me 7. Where to vote near me 8. Easter egg hunt near me 9. Concerts near me 10. n95 masks near me
Top Google searches in the United States, 2022
White
Elizabeth
Heche
Dahmer
Elizabeth
Smith Oscars
Depp
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
1. How to help Ukraine
How to help Ukrainian refugees
How to help abortion rights
How to help Ukraine army
How to help Uvalde
How to help Hurricane Ian
How to help Puerto Rico, Hurricane Fiona
How to help a dry cough
How to help restless leg syndrome during pregnancy
How to help toddler with cough

belIeve

amerIcanslove

have love

buIld

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Current Affairs 7
Source: Love Your Enemies
I
the majorIty of
the country and
for one another , we just have to
a movement and culture around these truths.
- Arthur Brooks, Impact Scholar, Gardner Institute
“ ”

Welcome to Utah

8 Current Affairs
Utah
for 2023
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Informed: Visual Intellection
Sources:
and Utah
Share of Utah population growth by components of change, 2015–2022 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Natural increase Net migration 2015 59.8% 40.2% 2016 56.6% 43.4% 2017 53.1% 46.9% 2018 54.6% 45.4% 2019 52.2% 47.8% 2020 51.3% 48.7% 2021 40.6% 59.4% 2022 37.7% 62.3%
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Population Committee

Show me the money!

U.S. Senate campaign spending and donations for Utah candidates, 2010–2022

$18.3 Million

$12.9 Million $6.2 Million $7.5 Million

$7.5 Million $7.5 Million $5.9 Million $7.2 Million

$20.3 Million 2016 2012 2010 2018 2022

$14.5 Million

Donations

Spending

Note: Data only include candidates who have registered and filed a financial report. Data may not include the most recently submitted filings.

Source: Federal Election Commission

DAVID ECCLES
OF BUSINESS Current Affairs 9
SCHOOL

50th anniversary of Title IX

10 Current Affairs Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed:
for 2023
Visual Intellection
sports participation rates
Girls’ high school sports participation Women’s college sports participation 1971–1972 2018–2019 7% 43% 1971–1972 15% 44% 2020–2021
Note: Title IX was signed into law in June 1972. Source: Women's Sports Foundation U.S.
since Title IX

Money ball

Market value of U.S. Men’s National Team World Cup players

2010

2014

Findlay

$286 k

Altidore $3.4 m

Dempsey $8 m Donovan $3.4 m Clark $858 k Bradley $5.7 m

Bocanegra $4 m Cherundolo $2.3 m Onyewu $5.7 m DeMerit $2.3 m Howard $10.8 m

Key substitutes: Edu: $2.3 m Gomez: $2.3 m Beasley: $2.0 m Feilhaber: $1.7 m Holden: $858 k Bornstein: $286 k Buddle: $171 k

Source: Axios

2022

Dempsey

Altidore $6.9 m

$8 m Jones $3.4 m Bedoya $2.6 m Beckerman $858k

Bradley $7.4 m

Beasley $1.1 m Johnson $4.6 m Besler $457 k Cameron $5.1 m Howard $2.3 m

Total squad value: $63.9

m

Average age: 25.9

Key substitutes: Total squad value: $66.1 m

Brooks: $3.4 m Chandler: $2.9 m Wondolowski: $1.7 m Davis: $858 k Zusi: $572 k Yedlin: $286 k

Average age: 26.3

Player worth $10 m or more

Pulisic $39.5 m Musah $20.8 m McKennie $21.8 m Adams $17.6 m

Reyna $36.4 m

Sargent $12.4 m Robinson $10.4 m Dest $16.6 m Ream $1.0 m Zimmerman $3.6 m Turner $5.2 m

Key substitutes: Total squad value: $288.4 m

Aaronson: $31.2 m Scalley: $12.4 m Weah: $12.4 m Ferreira: $8.3 m Long: $3.1 m de la Torre: $2.0 m

Average age: 25.1

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Current Affairs 11

Which came first, the chicken or the egg?

U.S.

Number of birds infected with avian u Cost per dozen large eggs, U.S. city average

12 Current Affairs Kem C.
for 2023
Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection
Sources: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
40 50
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
egg prices compared to avian flu cases, 2022 $0 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 0 10 20 30
60 Jan
Avian u cases (in millions) Cost

The economic issue

U.S. city average year-over inflation rate, 2010–2022

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Utah Economy 13
0% 5% 10% 15%
20%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 All items Food Household energy Housing
-10% -5%
In ation rate
25%
Fed's target in ation

many

people wIll say, but waIt a second, we ’ ve got hunger, we ’ ve got dIsease we ’ ve got InequalIty, we ’ ve got all these

challenges...

...but, If we don ’ t

solve

the

ofdIvIsIon,

Source: CNBC interview, May 1, 2020

14 Utah Economy Kem C. Gardner
for 2023
Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection
problem
we can ’ t solve any of the bIg problems of our tIme.

Economic confidence wanes

Utah and U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index, 2020–2022

Consumer sentiment Utah U.S. Pre-pandemic U.S. sentiment level

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Utah Economy 15
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 M A M J F 2020 2021 J A S O N D M A M J F J J A S O N D M A M J F J J A S O N 2022
Sources: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute and University of Michigan 64.1 56.8

Three distinctly different economic downturns

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

16 Utah Economy Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
for 2023
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection
5%
2000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Percent change in U.S. and Utah employment, 2000–2022 -15% -10% -5% 0%
10% 15%
Percent change
Utah United States Period of recession

fastest

economic region

VT 11% NH 12% MA 12% RI 13% CT 11% NJ 10% DE 9% MD 11% DC 9%

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Utah Economy 17
capita personal income growth,
3% 22% 12% 3% 15% 11% 18% 13% 15% 15% 12% 18% 11% 12% 6% 11% 13% 11% 13% 13% 9% 12% 11% 17% 4% 14% 16% 17% 14% 6% 12% 4% 14% 15% 15% 9% 12% 7% 22% 13% 13% 15% 11% 6%
Utah at the center of the nation’s
growing
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Per
2015 to 2020

Money, money, money

$6,000

$4,000

$3,000

$2,000

U.S. household checkable deposits, 2002-2022 $-

$5,000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

$1,000

18 Utah Economy Kem C.
for 2023
Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Stimulus savings

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

U.S. personal savings rate, 2002-2022 0%

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and usa.gov

$1,200 stimulus check $600 stimulus check $1,400 stimulus check

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Utah Economy 19
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

A break in the supply chain

U.S. supply chain pressure index, 1998-2022

Note: Values greater than zero indicate greater pressure on the national supply chain.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

20 Utah Economy Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed:
Intellection for 2023
Visual
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 2002 2003 2004 2005 1998 1999 2000 2001 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Standard deviations from average value

Importers drifting east

Loaded and emptied imports and exports at 3 busiest U.S. ports, 2018-2022

1,200

Port of New York and New Jersey replaces Port of Los Angeles as busiest U.S. port

1,000

800

600

400

Start of COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S.

200

0

Loaded and emptied imports and exports (twenty-feet equivalent units; in thousands) N.Y./N.J. Long Beach Los Angeles

Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21 Jan-22 Mar-22 May-22 Jul-22 Sep-22 Nov-22

Note: Data for Port of Los Angeles and Port of Long Beach are through November 2022. Data for Port of New York and New Jersey are through October 2022. Source: Port of Long Beach, Port of Los Angeles, and Port of New York and New Jersey

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Utah Economy 21

Highs and lows of 60/40 portfolio returns

Annual returns for a portfolio in 60% stocks and 40% bonds, 1928–2022

Note: Stock return refers to the S&P 500 (including dividends). Bond return refers to U.S. Treasury bonds. Gray areas indicate periods of recession.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of NYU.edu data

22 Utah Economy
for 2023
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection
-27.3% -20.7%
-40% -30% -20% -10%
1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
-15.9%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

U.S.

force

The great Boomer resignation

2010–2022

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Utah Economy 23
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
labor
participation rate among workers 55+,
35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 2010
2022

Pimples and paychecks

Note: South Dakota has been omitted due to lack of data.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

24 Utah Economy Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2023
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% Florida Hawaii New York New Jersey Arizona California Maryland Washington Georgia Mississippi Massachusetts Connecticut Louisiana Delaware Rhode Island Texas Oregon Vermont Alabama Missouri Illinois North Carolina West Virginia US Average New Mexico Virginia Nevada Alaska South Carolina Iowa Arkansas Michigan Colorado Tennessee Nebraska North Dakota Kansas Kentucky Montana Maine Pennsylvania Oklahoma Indiana Wyoming New Hampshire Ohio Minnesota Idaho Wisconsin Utah
Teenagers as a share of labor force, 2021 3.7% 7.0%

What

cut?

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Public Finance 25
income
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Income tax base as percent of personal income Income tax base
of GDP 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
tax
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and Utah State Tax Commission Individual
tax base as a percent of Utah GDP, 1994-2020
as percent
New income tax system begins

Rising

26 Public Finance Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah
for 2023
Informed: Visual Intellection
1.00% 1.75% 2.50% 3.25% 4.00% 4.50% 4.75% 5.00% 5.25% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2022 2023
interest rates...only part way there Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Federal funds effective rate, 2022–2023 Historical Projected 0.50%

The U.S. debt bites back

Quarter-over change in federal government interest payments, 2000–2022 -10%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Public Finance 27
2002 2003 2004 2005 2000 2001 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
28 Public Finance Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2023
pays property taxes?
Motor vehicle taxes are included in locally assessed as personal property. Motor vehicles were assessed up until 1992 when this was replaced with a fee-in-lieu.
not classified" was excluded for the years 1955 - 1975.
Who
Note:
"Property
Share of property taxes charged in Utah by type of property, 1955-2021 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 7% 1955 7% 1960 7% 1965 7% 1970 6% 1975 6% 1980 6% 1985 9% 1990 11% 1995 11% 2000 10% 2005 6% 2010 6% 2015 5% 2020 5% 16% 12% 11% 10% 8% 3% 4% 3% 4% 8% 9% 11% 10% 10% 10% 26% 5% 14% 32% 32% 6% 15% 29% 34% 5% 16% 27% 35% 5% 15% 28% 37% 5% 17% 28% 48% 7% 17% 18% 45% 8% 18% 19% 41% 8% 17% 21% 45% 7% 18% 15% 44% 7% 20% 11% 46% 6% 20% 9% 46% 5% 22% 10% 47% 6% 21% 10% 50% 6% 21% 8% 52% 6% 20% 7% 2021 Motor vehicle Other, including vacant land Residential Business personal property Business real property Centrally assessed business
Source: Utah State Tax Commission

What’s

Average annual rate of change: 5.17% 4.73% 3.85% 3.39% 1.58%

2.81%

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Public Finance 29
going on with Utah’s income tax?
change in real tax revenue collections in
by tax
1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Individual income Corporate income Sales and use Excise Motor vehicle and fuel Property
Note: Inheritance tax is excluded from income tax. Source: Utah State Tax Commission Percent
Utah
type, 1972–2022 -200% 0% 200% 400% 600% 800% 1000% 1200% 1400%

Corporate profits on the rise

U.S. corporate profits as a share of GDP, 1989–2022

Corporate pro ts as a share of GDP

0.13 0.12 0.11 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.03 0.02 0.01 0

0.05 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

0.04

Note: Data are through September 2022. Grey areas indicate periods of recession.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

30 Public Finance Kem
for 2023
C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection

While prices fall, monthly mortgage payments rise, worsening affordability

Utah median sales and monthly mortgage payments, 2015–2022

Median sales price (in thousands)

$550

$500

$450

$400

$350

$300

$250

$600 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Median sales price

Median monthly payment

$2,950

$2,750

$2,550

$2,350

$2,150

$1,950

$1,750

$1,550

$1,350

$1,150

$950

$3,150 $200

$750

Median monthly payment

Note: Assumes a 10% down payment. Data are through October 2022.

Sources: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, UtahRealEstate.com, and Freddie Mac

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Real Estate and Construction 31

Have rents finally peaked?

Average asking apartment rent in Utah’s largest metro counties, 2000–2022

Note: Data are through October 2022.

Source: CoStar

32
Real Estate and Construction Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2023
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Salt Lake County Utah County Davis County Weber County
$700 $800 $900 $1,000 $1,100 $1,200 $1,300 $1,400 $1,500 $1,600

Price growth is coming back to earth

Year-over percent change in Utah median sales price, 2021–2022

Box Elder 10.5%

Cache 12.8% Rich -1.1% Weber 9.2% Davis 8.5% Morgan 18.8% Daggett-0.3%

Summit 12.3% Tooele 7.0% Uintah 20.8% Utah 10.8%

Salt Lake 9.6%

Source: Utah Realtors Association

Sanpete - 0.8% Beaver 49.9%

Millard 19.4% Piute -2.2%

Wasatch 21.5% Washington 10.4%

Duchesne 44.4% Sevier 51.1%

Juab 15.4% Kane - 1.9%

Carbon 17.8% Emery 21.7%

Grand 10.1% Iron 6.0%

Gar eld 13.5%

San Juan - 6.7%

Wayne 20.3% -6.7% 51.1%

Note: Year-over change is comparing Q3 data.

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Real
and Construction 33
Estate

30-year

Source: Utah Realtors Association

Where will our kids go?

34 Real Estate and Construction Kem C.
for 2023
Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection
1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
mortgage rates, 1971–2022 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 19% 18% 17% 15% 14% 13% 11% 10% 9% 7% 6% 5% 3% 2% 1%

With age comes equity

Sources: Home Mortgage Disclosure Act and Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Real Estate and Construction 35
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% <25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 >74
Share of Utah homebuyers and down payment percentage by age, 2021
Share of homebuyers by age Down payment percentage by age

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association

No looming foreclosure crisis

36 Real Estate and Construction Kem
for 2023
C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection
3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Share of Utah mortgages past due or in foreclosure, 2000-2022 0% 1% 2%
10%
Past due In foreclosure

Pandemic’s toll on commercial real estate

-25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10%

Metro area Percent

2.0% 6.8% 8.0% -30% -35%

Note: Adjusted for lease characteristics and property zip code.

Source: CompStack Data Analysis by Andrea Ghent, University of Utah

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Real Estate and Construction 37
Percent change in real effective rents on office leases between 2019 and 202226.0%21.0%15.0%14.0%13.0%13.0%12.0%12.0%11.0%11.0%10.0%9.8%9.1%8.8%7.9%7.1%4.6%4.5%3.6% -3.1% -2.0%1.1% Pittsburgh San Francisco Charlotte Philadelphia Portland Washington DC Chicago San Antonio Detroit New York City Seattle Austin US Average Los Angeles Atlanta Baltimore Sacramento Dallas Houston Salt Lake City St. Louis Boston Cincinnati Tampa Bay Orlando
change

Gone in a flash

Share of Utah active listings selling the same day, 2016–2022

Sources: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute and UtahRealEstate.com

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2023

38
Real Estate and Construction
21.9% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Utah travel recovers quicker than nation

Utah and -20%

U.S. travel indicators, 2019–2021 -10%

27.4% - 11.1% 4.2% Percent change U.S. Utah

22.0% 0%

3.4%

14.9% 1.0%

18.6% 10% Visitor spending Arts, ent., & rec. jobs Accommodations jobs Food service jobs

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Travel and Tourism 39
-
-
-
-
-
Sources: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Tourism Economics, U.S. Travel Association, and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data -30%

Statewide

Tourism-related sales continue upward surge

compared

Taxable sales (in millions) 2020-2022 Baseline (2019) Trend (2020-2022)

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Utah State Tax Commission data

40
Travel and Tourism Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2023
leisure and hospitality taxable sales, 2020–2022
to 2019 baseline $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22

Labor shortage puts pressure on hotels and restaurants

Change -25%

2020–2022 compared to 2019 baseline 0%

Percent change Spending Jobs

50% Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022

25%

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Travel and Tourism 41
Note: Includes public and private full- and part-time jobs; does not include proprietors.
in hotel and restaurant spending and jobs,
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Utah State Tax Commission and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data +34.2% +3.9% -50%

Salt Lake City International Airport total passengers, 2020–2022 compared to 2019 baseline

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of SLC International Airport data

42 Travel
and Tourism Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2023 Come fly with me
0.5
Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Jan-22 May-22 Sep-22
0.0
1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 Number of passengers (in millions)
2020-2022 Baseline (2019)

National and state park visitation softens in summer 2022 as gas prices rise

140%

120%

100%

80%

Percent change

60%

40%

20%

0%

-20%

Percent change in Utah’s national park and state park visitation, 2021-2022 compared to 2019 baseline -40%

Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Jan-22 May-22 Sep-22

National parks State parks

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of National Park Service and Utah State Parks data

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Travel and Tourism 43
44 Travel and Tourism Kem C. Gardner
Utah
for 2023
3.0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2001-2002 2005-2006 2009-2010 2013-2014 2017-2018 2021-2022
5.8
Policy Institute
Informed: Visual Intellection
Ski visits set new record, doubles in 20 years Source: Ski Utah Utah skier days, 2001–2002 to 2021–2022
Skier days (in millions)

Crude oil prices, 1979–2022

What drives oil prices?

Iran Revolution, Iran-Iraq War Iraq invades Kuwait

Note: West Texas Intermediate (WTI).

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Subprime mortgage crisis Russia invades Ukraine

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Energy and Environment 45
$0
WTI crude oil price Real WTI crude oil price
$20 $40 $60 $80 $100 Price per barrel $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 Nominal
2002 2003 2004 2005 2000 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2001 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
46 Energy and Environment Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2023
Carbon intensity (lbs. CO2 per kWh) emissions factors for coal are 2.21 lbs per kWh, natural gas 0.91, and petroleum 2.13. Data are through August 2022.
Energy Information Administration
states’ electricity feedstocks, 2022 Nevada Carbon intensity 0.74 8% 63% 30% Idaho Carbon intensity 0.28 31% 69% Wyoming Carbon intensity 1.85 13% 5% 82% New Mexico Carbon intensity 1.16 26% 38% 36% Colorado Carbon intensity 1.20 27% 42% 31% Utah Carbon intensity 1.60 13% 62% 25% Montana Carbon intensity 1.07 4% 1% 46% 49% Arizona Carbon intensity 0.76 11% 15% 48% 27% Coal Renewables Natural Gas Petroleum Nuclear
Coal powers Utah Note:
Source: U.S.
Mountain

Intermountain refineries run full tilt

Intermountain West refining capacity, 2022

Montana 228,000 (29.4%) Colorado 103,000 (13.3%)

New Mexico 110,000 (14.2%)

Utah 207,000 (37.8%)

Note: Idaho and Arizona have no operable petroleum refineries.

Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration and American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers

Wyoming 126,000 (16.2%)

Nevada 2,000 (0.3%)

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Energy and Environment 47
Barrels per day Total 776,000

Reliability

metrics of electricity distribution in western states, 2020–2021

Rank State

Average outage duration (customer average interruption duration index in hours) Rank State

Average outage duration (customer average interruption duration index in hours)

1 Arizona 1.2 1 Arizona 1.5 2 Nevada 1.7 2 Montana 2.0 3 Colorado 2.2 3 California 2.1 4 New Mexico 2.4 4 Utah 2.4 5 Wyoming 2.6 5 Washington 2.5 6 Montana 3.3 6 Colorado 2.7 7 Washington 3.3 7 Wyoming 3.0 8 Idaho 3.4 8 Nevada 4.1 9 California 4.1 9 New Mexico 4.5 10 Oregon 4.5 10 Oregon 5.2 11 Utah 7.3* 11 Idaho 15.8

* On March 18, 2020, a 5.7 magnitude earthquake with 50 aftershocks caused power outages along the Wasatch Front due to damaged power lines.

Source: Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Annual, Table 11.3

48 Energy and Environment
for 2023
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection
Hey, turn on the lights!
2020 2021

Hemispheric asset at risk

4,214

4,212

4,210

4,208

Elevation (in feet)

4,206

4,204

4,202

4,200

4,198

4,196

4,194

4,192

Average Elevation: 1903–2022

Average annual elevation of Great Salt Lake, 1903–2022 4,190

Note: 2022 annual average calculated from daily average elevation through September 23.

Source: U.S. Geological Survey Historical Elevation at Saltair Boat Harbor

Contemporary

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Energy and Environment 49
Period
Record
1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Contemporary Record High
Low

Pain at the pump

Price components in a gallon of Utah motor gasoline, 2022

Taxes

Federal and state taxes are levied on motor gasoline. The federal tax is 18.4¢/gallon; the Utah tax is 31.9¢/gallon.

Refining costs

Costs incurred by refineries to process crude oil into refined products such as motor gasoline, jet fuel, heating oil, and marine bunker fuel. Variable refinery operating costs include labor, energy, and catalysts to run refinery processing units.

Distribution and marketing costs

Costs of delivering gasoline to consumer retail outlets include truck and rail expenses. Marketing supports motor gasoline sales to end users.

Crude oil

The cost of crude oil purchased by the refiner.

Source: American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers

50 Energy and Environment Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2023
15% 12% 21% 53%

How well did we do?

Utah's ranking on four composite measures of states' COVID-19 response

1st 2nd 7th 23rd

Measures states’ COVID-19 responses based on three categories:

n Economy (unemployment and GDP)

n Education (percentage of in-person instruction for the 2020–21 school year)

n Mortality (COVID-19 associated deaths reported to the CDC and all-cause excess mortality, measured through March 5, 2022)

Measures COVID-19 policy outcomes in four categories:

n Health (deaths per capita, hospitalizations per capita, COVID-19 tests completed compared to hospital admissions, and vaccine doses administered per capita)

n Economy (GDP, job creation, and unemployment rates)

n Social well-being (food insecurity, ability to afford household expenses, and violent crime)

n Education (change in reading achievement, change in math achievement, and change in enrollment)

Analyzes seven COVID measures to reflect state progress in:

n Vaccinating residents

n COVID-related hospitalization rates

n Health system stress (ICU stress, hospital staffing shortages, etc.)

n COVID-related mortality through the end of March 2022

Measures state performance primarily based on three factors:

n Rates of infection n Death n COVID-19 testing

Sources: Committee to Unleash Prosperity's Final Report Card on the States' Response to COVID-19, Politico's State Pandemic Scorecard, Commonwealth's 2022 Scorecard on State Health System Performance, and Berkeley's Othering and Belonging Institute

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Health 51

Expanding Medicaid appears to have had a positive impact

Utah

American Indian or Alaska Native only, non-Hispanic

Asian only, non-Hispanic

Black or African American only, non-Hispanic Hispanic/Latino

Native Hawaiian or Other Paci c Islander only, non-Hispanic

Two or More Races only, non-Hispanic

White only, non-Hispanic Unknown 2019 2021

*Use caution in interpreting; the estimate has a coefficient of variation >30% and is therefore unreliable by DHHS standards.

Note: Utah fully expanded Medicaid in January 2020. Data are age-adjusted.

Sources: Utah Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, Office of Public Health Assessment, and Utah Department of Health and Human Services

52 Health Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2023
adult uninsured rates by race and ethnicity, 2019 compared to 2021 16.6% 6.1%* 20.9% 35.1% 15.2%* 15.6% 8.0% 18.7% 11.4%* 4.9%* 15.6% 28.7% 8.9%* 9.3%* 4.9% 23.1% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Uninsured rate 25% 30% 35% 40%

Worker shortages continue

Percent change in annual average employment in Utah's health care and social assistance industry, 2002-2022

Note: The health care and social assistance sector comprises establishments providing health care and social assistance for individuals. Establishments in this sector deliver services by trained professionals. NBER-dated recessions in gray.

Sources: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Utah Department of Workforce Services data and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Health 53
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
0.2% 3.5% 1.7%
Percent change

*Data are unavailable for Utah in 2018; count shown for 2018 is an estimate.

Note: About 1 in 5 Utah adults (more than 400,000) provide informal (primarily unpaid) care for a family member or friend with a serious health problem or disability.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data

54 Health
C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed:
Intellection for 2023
Kem
Visual
Nearly 1 in 5 Utahns age 35-54 serves as a family caregiver
450 379 424 430* 460 436 441 454 466 478 490 501 514 526 539 552 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Number of caregivers (in thousands) Historical
Number of family caregivers in Utah, 2015–2030
Projected

The need for family caregiving is growing

Age Sex

18–34 35–54 55–64 65+ Female Male

Race Minority Non-Minority

Region Rural Urban

Prevalence of Utah family caregiving by demographic group, 2015–2020 0% 5% 10% 15%

15.6% (14.4%–16.8%) 19.3% (18.2%–20.4%) 26.9% (25.1%–28.6%) 22.4% (21.1%–23.7%) 22.5% (21.5%–23.4%) 16.4% (15.5%–17.3%)

15.1% (13.5%–16.6%) 20.6% (19.9%–21.3%)

22.8% (19.6%–26.0%) 19.2% (18.2%–20.1%)

Prevalence 20% 25% 30%

Note: 95% confidence intervals are shown in parentheses.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data

ECCLES
OF BUSINESS Health 55
DAVID
SCHOOL

Increasing baby blues

Share

symptoms,

Sources: Utah Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System, Utah Birth Certificate Database, Office of Vital Records and Statistics, and Utah Department of Health and Human Services

56 Health Kem C. Gardner
for 2023
Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
of Utah's new mothers who experience postpartum depression
2012-2021 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 2012 Percent share
2021 11.2% 16.2%

Homesick

35%

30%

25%

40% 14.3%

20%

15%

10%

5%

Utah adult health care indicators by home ownership status, 2021 0%

28.3% 7 or more days of having "not good" physical health in the past month

24.1%

Share of Utah adults 22.0%

33.7% 36.1% 7 or more days of having "not good" mental health in the past month

Own Rent Other arrangement

7.0%

20.3% 22.6%

Unable to get needed medical care due to cost in the past year

Sources: Utah Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, Office of Public Health Assessment, and Utah Department of Health and Human Services

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Health 57

Utah County drives 2/3 of school-age population growth…

Absolute (percent) change in school age population by county, 2020–2060

-188 (-1%) -1,050 (-26%)

-1,199 (-15%) 1,569 (8%) -868 (-10%) 73,089 (46%)

10,268 126 11,106 19,465 1,005 31

-1,470 (-48%) -11 (-4%)

2 (0%)

4,050 (50%) 15,798 (43%)

899 (29%) 74 (5%)

990 (17%) -1,598 (-32%)

9,058 (32%) -30 (-5%) 2,716 (5%) 4,179 (-1%) 278 (8%) -47 (-25%) 242 (44%)

Note: School age reflects population ages 5–17.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute State and County Projections

-1,874 (-1%) -520 (-16%)

862 (29%) 4,561 (74%) 62,994 (62%)

245 (15%) 2,401 (20%)

85 (21%)

-342 (-7%) -891 (-39%) 48 (5%)

Kem

34,168 (34%) 1,843 (36%) 50 (3%)

3,573 (131%) 17,030 (110%)

-1,874 73,089 -154

-154 (-16%) 7 (6%)

902 (90%) 265 (52%)

41 (21%)

2,395 (56%) 257 (15%) 30 (4%) 111 (31%) 3,718 (44%)

Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection

58 Education
for 2023
C.

…and more than 1/3 of college-age growth

Absolute (percent) change in college age population by county, 2020–2060

-1,199 (-15%) -868 (-10%) 73,089 (46%)

10,268 (42%) 126 (78%) 11,106 (48%) 19,465 (62%) 1,005 (100%) 31 (58%)

990 (17%) -1,598 (-32%)

-11 (-4%)

4,050 (50%) 85 (21%)

9,058 (32%) -30 (-5%) 2,716 (5%) 4,179 (-1%) 278 (8%) -47 (-25%) 242 (44%)

-342 (-7%) -891 (-39%) 48 (5%)

-1,050 (-26%)

-1,874 (-1%) -520 (-16%)

245 (15%) 74 (5%)

862 (29%) 4,561 (74%) 1,531 (64%) 62,994 (62%)

2,395 (56%) 257 (15%)

-154 (-16%) 7 (6%)

3,573 (131%) 17,030 (110%)

902 (90%) 265 (52%)

1,843 (36%) 50 (3%)

Note: College age reflects population ages 18–24.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute State and County Projections

34,168 (34%) 236 (20%)

41 (21%)

729 (52%) 30 (4%) 111 (31%)

398 (69%) 3,718 (44%)

73,089 -154 62,994

DAVID ECCLES
Education 59
SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Ready to learn?

Kindergarten readiness in literacy by small area, 2016-2018

24.0% Salt Lake City (Downtown) 24.0% 83.3%

83.3% Salt Lake City (Foothill/East Bench)

Note: Percentage of children with sufficient prerequisite knowledge and skills on KEEP (Kindergarten Entry and Exit Profile) literacy.

Source: Utah Data Research Center

60 Education Kem C.
for 2023
Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection

Who's enrolling in college?

Utah college enrollment within five years of graduating high school, cohorts 2008-2017

Note: Economic disadvantage measured by a student's eligibility for free or reduced-price lunch.

Source: Utah System of Higher Education

DAVID ECCLES
BUSINESS Education 61
SCHOOL OF
38% 44% 49% 53% 55% 53% 59% 68% 72% 74% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 1 year 2 years 3 years 4 years 5 years Economically disadvantaged Not economically disadvantaged

Value of a college degree

Utah median annual earnings, 2019

Graduate or Professional Degree

Graduate or Professional Degree

Bachelor's Degree

Bachelor's Degree

Some College or Associate Degree

High School Diploma or Equivalent

Some College or Associate Degree

High School Diploma or Equivalent

Overall $28,028

Less than High School Diploma

Overall $28,028

Less than High School Diploma

Note: Data are for individuals age 25 and older.

$41,679

$76,099

$51,611

$76,099

$37,247

$34,667

$37,247

$34,667

$51,611

$0 $20K $40K $60K $80K

$0 $20K $40K $60K $80K

Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates

Share of children with family income above their parents’ family income, by child’s education level

Without a College Degree

Without a College Degree

With a College Degree

With a College Degree

Note: Economic mobility between the parental generation of the 1960s and 1970s and their adult children.

Source: Brookings Institute

62 Education Kem C. Gardner
for 2023
Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection
74% 63% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
$41,679 74% 63% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Money left on the table

50%

40%

30%

20%

FAFSA completion rates of USHE students, 2016–2021 41.8% 0%

60% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

10%

DAVID
Education 63
ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Source: Utah System of Higher Education 52.6% 51.5% 52.1% 44.0% 36.8%

College student hunger pains

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

Food insecurity among Utah college students, 2021 0%

70% 38.8% All students

10%

60.6% Non-binary students

39.9% Female students

33.8% Male students

46.6% First-generation students

33.8% Nonrst-generation students

47.9% Students of color

36.0% White students

45.0% Rural students

37.4% Urban students

Note: Measures share of students who experienced food insecurity in the last year based on food security survey of higher education students in Utah.

Source: Utah System of Higher Education

64 Education Kem C. Gardner
Institute
for 2023
Policy
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection

The

fund now funds more than education

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

Use 10%

revenue in Utah, 1931-2023 20%

40%

30%

100% 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 Public education Higher education Children and people with disabilities

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Education 65
education
of income tax
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Legislative Fiscal Analyst's Office and Governor's Office of Planning and Budget data 0%
66 Demographics Kem C. Gardner
for 2023
Africa 1,427 million Latin America + Carribean 660 million Oceania 45 million Europe 744 million Northern America 377 million Asia 4,723 million 45 million 4,723 million
Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection
World population reached 8 billion in 2022 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population by region, 2022

Migration-driven growth ahead

Sources: Utah Population Committee and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Demographics 67
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 2052 2054 2056 2058 2060 Population change (in thousands) Net migration Population change Natural increase
Historical and projected components of change, 1990–2060
Historical Projected

Growth is our constant companion

Projected total county population change, 2020-2060

Box Elder 32,111

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Juab 11,500

Salt Lake 483,889

Wasatch 46,089

Rich 1,017 Weber 133,539 Davis 216,736 Morgan 11,854 Daggett 66

Summit 17,209 Tooele 75,741 Uintah 10,767 Utah 673,964

Beaver 3,105

Millard -1,271 Piute 266

Iron 40,440

Sanpete 11,536 Sevier 2,079

Cache 92,341 Carbon 1,973

Duchesne 3,525 Emery 907

Wayne 538

Grand 4,455

Washington 282,417

Kane 3,741

Gar eld 857

San Juan 4,382

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2023

68 Demographics

Some of the fastest growing areas in the nation

Highlights from Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2020–2021

#10

Logan UT-ID

Utah County ranked 10th in the U.S. for number of new residents.

#1

St. George

#8

Provo-Orem

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2020-2021

3 of the top 10 fastest growing metro areas in the U.S. were in Utah.

DAVID ECCLES
BUSINESS Demographics 69
SCHOOL OF

Fewer strollers, more wheelchairs

70 Demographics
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2023
52.9 48.5 39.2 37.2 38.7 35.7 15.3 19.2 24.0 27.4 34.6 40.2 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 68.2 67.7 63.3 64.6 73.3 75.9
Youth (age 0–17) Older adults (age 65+)
Note: Dependency ratio includes the number of youths (ages 0-17) and older adults (age 65+) per 100 working adults (ages 18-64). Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah historical and projected dependency ratios, 2010–2060 Historical Projected
Dependents per 100 working-age residents

Impressive growth in happy valley

Sources: Utah Population Committee and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

1.5%

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Demographics 71
Rest of State (5.8%) Uintah 0.7% Summit 0.7% Juab 0.6% Duchesne 0.6% Morgan 0.6% San Juan 0.5% Kane 0.5% Carbon 0.4% Millard 0.4% Sevier 0.3% Beaver 0.2% Rich 0.1% Wayne 0.1% Emery 0.1% Gar eld 0.1% Grand 0.0% Piute 0.0% Daggett 0.0%
County share of population growth, 2021–2022 16.3% Salt Lake 9.3% Davis 7.0% Washington 4.5% Weber 4.3% Iron 2.6% Box Elder 2.5% Tooele 2.2% Wasatch
Sanpete 39.2% Utah County 4.9% Cache

Our actions impact population levels

Utah population projection scenarios, 2025-2060

Low, baseline, and high scenarios

Total population (in millions)

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2023

72 Demographics
M
M
3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2051 2052 2053 2054 2055 2056 2057 2058 2059 2060
Low
4.4
5.5
6.3 M
Baseline High

Utah ranks 11th for life expectancy but 21st for infant mortality rate

Infant mortality and life expectancy by state, 2019

82 80 78 76

HI VT

CA NY NJ WA CT MN CO AZ

MA

UT NH IL TX NV KS PA DE MI

ID OR NE IA ME AK MT DC KY

FL RI VA WI MD

81 79 77 75 4 6

Sources: USA Mortality Database and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

ND GA

WY

LA OK AR TN

AL

SD NC NM MO IN SC OH WV MS

Life expectancy at birth 8 3 5 7 9

Infant mortality per 1,000

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Demographics 73

Baby bust in the West

U.S. fertility declines by region, 2010–2020

Paci c -20.2%

West North Central -11.1%

Mountain -20.5%

West South Central -12.5%

East North Central -12.0%

New England -15.0%

Middle Atlantic -11.1%

South Atlantic -13.8%

East South Central -7.7%

Note: Division Total Fertility Rates (TFRs) were calculated by averaging the state level TFRs within each division.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of National Center for Health Statistics data

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection

74 Demographics
2023
for

Deaths exceed births in six Utah counties

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Demographics 75
Counties that experienced natural decrease between 2021 and 2022 Kane Piute Gar eld Emery Carbon Daggett

1 in 12 Utahns is multiracial

White; Some Other Race: 84.0% White; Black or African American; Some Other Race: 0.7% Black or African American; Some Other Race: 1.1% White; Black or African American: 1.1% White; Asian: 1.1% American Indian or Alaska Native; Some Other Race: 1.9% White; American Indian or Alaska Native; Some Other Race: 2.9% White; American Indian or Alaska Native: 3.5% 48 Other Unique Populations: 3.6%

White; Asian: 26% White; Some Other Race: 18% White; Native Hawaiian or Other Paci c Islander: 10% White; Black or African American: 13% Asian; Native Hawaiian or Other Paci c Islander: 2% White; Asian; Native Hawaiian or Other Paci c Islander: 3% White; Black or African American; American Indian or Alaska Native: 1% 48 Other Unique Populations: 6%

White; American Indian or Alaska Native: 22%

76 Demographics
C.
for 2023
Kem
Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection
U.S. Census Bureau
Source:
Largest Hispanic or Latino multiracial populations in Utah, 2020
Largest non-Hispanic multiracial populations in Utah, 2020

vIsIon

top

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Demographics 77
our
Is to become a
10 publIc unIversIty wIth unsurpassed socIetal Impact. we must be 1,534 acres of ‘you can achIeve anythIng here.’ “ ” – President Taylor Randall, University of Utah

The whole point

Probability of making informed decisions TM Accurate data and information

78 Utah Informed Kem C.
for 2023
Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection

KEM C. GARDNER POLICY INSTITUTE STAFF AND ADVISORS

Leadership Team

Natalie Gochnour, Associate Dean and Director

Jennifer Robinson, Associate Director

Mallory Bateman, Director of Demographic Research

Phil Dean, Chief Economist and Public Finance

Senior Research Fellow

Shelley Kruger, Accounting and Finance Manager

Colleen Larson, Administrative Manager

Dianne Meppen, Director of Survey Research

Nicholas Thiriot, Communications Director

James A. Wood, Ivory-Boyer Senior Fellow Faculty Advisors

Matt Burbank, College of Social and Behavioral Science

Elena Patel, David Eccles School of Business

Nathan Seegert, David Eccles School of Business Senior Advisors

Jonathan Ball, Office of the Legislative Fiscal Analyst

Silvia Castro, Suazo Business Center

Gary Cornia, Marriott School of Business

Wes Curtis, Community-at-Large

John C. Downen, Camoin Associates

Dan Griffiths, Community-at-Large

Emma Houston, University of Utah

Beth Jarosz, Population Reference Bureau

Darin Mellott, CBRE

Pamela S. Perlich, University of Utah

Chris Redgrave, Community-at-Large

Wesley Smith, Northbound Strategy

Juliette Tennert, Community-at-Large

Staff

Eric Albers, Research Associate

Samantha Ball, Senior Research Associate

Max Becker, Research Associate

Andrea Thomas Brandley, Senior Education Analyst

Kara Ann Byrne, Senior Research Associate

Mike Christensen, Scholar-in-Residence

Nate Christensen, Research Associate

Dejan Eskic, Senior Research Fellow

Enas Farag, Research Assistant

Emily Harris, Senior Demographer

Michael T. Hogue, Senior Research Statistician

Mike Hollingshaus, Senior Demographer

Thomas Holst, Senior Energy Analyst

Jennifer Leaver, Senior Tourism Analyst

Nate Lloyd, Deputy Director of Economic and Public Policy Research

Levi Pace, Senior Research Economist

Praopan Pratoomchat, Senior Research Economist

Heidi Prior, Research Associate

Natalie Roney, Research Economist

Shannon Simonsen, Research Coordinator

Paul Springer, Senior Graphic Designer

Laura Summers, Senior Health Care Analyst

Partners in the Community

The following individuals and entities help support the research mission of the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute.

Legacy Partners

The Gardner Company

Christian and Marie Gardner Family Intermountain Healthcare Clark and Christine Ivory Foundation

KSL and Deseret News

Larry H. & Gail Miller Family Foundation

Mountain America Credit Union Salt Lake City Corporation

Salt Lake County University of Utah Health Utah Governor’s Office of Economic Opportunity WCF Insurance Zions Bank

Executive Partners Mark and Karen Bouchard The Boyer Company Clyde Companies Salt Lake Chamber

Sustaining Partners Dominion Energy Staker Parson Materials and Construction Wells Fargo

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Advisory Board

Conveners

Michael O. Leavitt

Mitt Romney Board

Scott Anderson, Co-Chair Gail Miller, Co-Chair

Doug Anderson Deborah Bayle Roger Boyer Michelle Camacho Wilford Clyde Sophia M. DiCaro Cameron Diehl Lisa Eccles Spencer P. Eccles

Christian Gardner

Kem C. Gardner

Kimberly Gardner

Natalie Gochnour Brandy Grace Rachel Hayes Clark Ivory Mike S. Leavitt Derek Miller Ann Millner Sterling Nielsen Jason Perry Ray Pickup Gary B. Porter Taylor Randall Jill Remington Love

Brad Rencher

Josh Romney Charles W. Sorenson James Lee Sorenson Vicki Varela

Ex Officio (invited) Governor Spencer Cox Speaker Brad Wilson Senate President Stuart Adams

Representative Brian King Senator Karen Mayne Mayor Jenny Wilson Mayor Erin Mendenhall

Salt Lake Chamber Board of Directors

Dr. Donna L. Milavetz, Chair Gary Hoogeveen, Vice Chair

Lloyd Allen Josh Brown Nathan R. Callister Judd E. Cook Amanda K. Covington Darla Gill

Natalie Gochnour Kay Hall Dan Hemmert Clark D. Ivory Greg M. Johnson Matt Lyon Derek Miller Sterling W. Nielsen

Scott Parson David A. Peterse Gary B. Porter

Nico Bamberger Priskos

President Taylor Randall Ms. Linda Wardell

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Thomas S. Monson Center I 411 E. South Temple Street

Salt Lake City, UT 84111 I 801-585-5618 I gardner.utah.edu

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS UNIVERSITY OF UTAH