Utah Informed - Visual Intellection for 2017

UTAH INFORMED V I S U A L

I N T E L L E C T I O N

F O R

In Partnership with the Salt Lake Chamber

2 0 1 7

At the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, we develop and share economic, demographic and public policy data and research that help individuals and the community make informed decisions.

N

ew York Times columnist and Pulitzer Prize winner Thomas Friedman says if you want to be optimistic about the future, stand on your head and see the world from the bottom up.

Your perspective will start with communities, extend to states, and progress to the nation and the world. The closer you are to the bottom of this progression, the more positive will be your outlook. He says the entrepreneurship and innovation happening at the community level propels his bright outlook.

In this, the second edition of Utah Informed, we share his optimism. The tables, charts, ideas, and schematics shared in this book present a microcosm of the many challenges and opportunities we face. The great reason for optimism is that Utah community leaders rely on sound data to make decisions. Pair this data-driven orientation with the extraordinary innovation and entrepreneurship that occurs in Utah, and you have a winning combination.

Philanthropist Kem C. Gardner and other community leaders have endowed the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute at the David Eccles School of Business. Their vision is for the Institute to be the place where Utah comes together

to clarify facts, discuss ideas, prevent and solve problems, and, ultimately, thrive. The partnership with the Salt Lake Chamber helps us fulfill this mission.

In this booklet, we present what we call “visual intellection.� Each page forces the viewer to consider a compelling trend, a new idea, or an aspirational thought.

The information may help you connect a few dots. It may also leave you wanting, not knowing exactly what to think.

That is intentional. We want this booklet to make you think.

We hope this 2017 edition of Utah Informed will help you make informed decisions in 2017.

Natalie Gochnour

Taylor Randall

Lane Beattie

Director, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Dean, David Eccles School of Business

President & CEO, Salt Lake Chamber

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

|

1

Contents Global and National Context 2016 Discoveries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Words and phrases to know in 2017 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Duration of US economic expansions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Odds of US recession in next 12 months. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Consumer Confidence Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Partisan Conflict Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Hollow Trees. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Effective federal funds rate. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Share of world manufacturing output . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Core inflation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Federal budget deficits and surpluses. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Net interest overlays vs. federal debt. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 US International trade balance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 US economic competitiveness. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Production and jobs in manufacturing sector. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Nonfarm productivity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 News use across social media platforms. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

People Utah population growth, 2015 - 2016. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Utah population age 5 to 17. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Depedency ratios in Utah and the United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Living arrangements of Utah adults in 2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Selected age groups as a percent of Utah’s total population. . . . . . 25 Total fertility rates for Utah and the United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 8-year olds identifi­ed with Autism Spectrum Disorder. . . . . . . . . . 27 Primary languages spoken at home in Utah. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Minorities’ share of Utah population. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Utah population pyramid . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30

Top 10 sources of migrants to Utah. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Percent of population without health insurance in 2015. . . . . . . . 32 Health care expenditures as a share of GDP: 2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Percent of population with income below poverty level, 2015. . . . . 34

Jobs Employment change, Q1 2008 – Q1 2016. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Employers with 4,000 or more average annual jobs in 2015. . . . . 36 Employment as a percent of 2007 peak. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 Utah employment by industry. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 Utah Headline and U-6 unemployment rates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Job index for Utah private and public sectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

Education 4-year graduation rates by school district, 2016. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 Retention of new Utah teachers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 Percent of population 25 years and over with graduate or professional degree. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 Educational attainment for persons 25 Years and over, 2015 . . . . . 44 Average undergraduate tuition and fees. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 Top five undergraduate degrees for Utah men and women. . . . . 46 Top male and female dominated degrees in Utah. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47

Income and Debt Share of households in the middle class . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 Gini Index of Income Equality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 Utah real private average hourly earnings index. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 Utah components of Personal Income. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 Consumer bankruptcy cases, Utah and US. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 Real Salt Lake vs. Los Angeles Galaxy pay . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 Utah per capita debt by loan type . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54

Edited by Juliette Tennert

2

|

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Sales and Prices

Fiscal

Regional Price Parities, 2014. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 Average retail price of electricity to residential sector. . . . . . . . . . 56 Composition of Utah retail sales. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 Utah nexus for largest US e-retailers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 Millenial expenditure growth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59

States with triple-triple rating . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 State of Utah sales and use tax collections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 State of Utah budget reserve accounts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 Budget of the State of Utah. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81

Real Estate and Construction

Utah merchandise exports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82 Top ten Utah export purchasing countries: 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83 Top ten Utah export industries: 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84 The age of acceleration. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85 Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints membership. . . . . . . . 86

Growth in housing units and households in Utah . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 Construction jobs as a percent of all jobs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 Real Change in FHFA Home Price Index, 1980 - 2015. . . . . . . . . . . . 62 Utah residential construction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 Value of permit-authorized construction in Utah. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 Index of for-sale inventory. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 Median existing home prices. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66

Travel and Tourism Direct Utah traveler spending. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 Utah tourism-generated jobs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 International visitor Visa card. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 Utah skier days vs. total annual snowfall. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 Utah national park and place visitation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71

Resources Highest internet connection speeds in the US. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 States with most solar electric capacity installed in 2015 . . . . . . . 73 States’ share of total US energy production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 Energy consumption per capita . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 Salt Lake City temperature records. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76 Share of Utah land area in drought conditions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

International Trade

Economic Strength and Diversity County shares defense contracts and grants. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 Utah Defense Sector total economic impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 Hachman Index of GDP diversity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 Delta Air Lines US and Canada routes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 Union Pacific Rail Network. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 US and Utah GDP by industry. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92

Shedding Light Leadership truisms. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 Progress. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94 Human adaptability and technological acceleration. . . . . . . . . . . . 95 Informed decisions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96

|

3

2016 discoveries Gene-Editing Technique Used on Human Patient A lung cancer patient became the first human subject of the CRISPR gene-editing technique, with the goal of strengthening his cells against the cancer.

Gravitational Waves Detected 100 years after Albert Einstein unveiled his theory of General Relativity, the first direct evidence of gravitational waves was detected.

Casper the friendly octopus An octopus found near Hawaii, nicknamed “Casper” for its pale, translucent appearance, is a newly discovered species.

NASA Spacecraft Reaches Jupiter After five years, NASA’s Juno spacecraft finally reached Jupiter, and is now orbiting the planet.

Dinosaurs Tail with Feathers Discovered A 99 million-year-old dinosaur tail was found in amber, with its bones, tissue, and feathers intact.

4

|

Another Planet in Our Solar System Found A group of astronomers found new evidence that there is a distant planet within our solar system.

Small Asteroid Orbiting Earth and the Sun A new companion to our planet, a small asteroid which appears to be orbiting the earth as well, has been found orbiting the sun.

Eyeless Cavefish Walks Up Cave Walls A blind cavefish has been found using its pelvis to scale cave walls, providing a modern look at evolutionary steps.

SpaceX Successfully Lands Rocket Private company SpaceX successfully landed its Falcon 9 rocket with the help of a drone ship.

Greenland Shark Declared Oldest Living Vertebrate Through radiocarbon dating, scientists estimate a female Greenland shark to be around 400 years old.

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Words and phrases to know in 2017 350 �����������������������������������������������������������������The number of persons in Utah at least 100 years old. The number of centenarians in Utah is projected to grow to 6,800 by 2065!

Alt-right �����������������������������������������������������A self-proclaimed tribe that unifies against multiculturalism, immigration, feminism and, above all, political correctness.

A.I. �����������������������������������������������������������������Artificial intelligence is all the rage. Prominent thinker Stephen Hawking reminds us that it will be, “either the best, or worst thing, ever to happen to humanity.”

Beehive �������������������������������������������������������What used to be thought of as Utah’s state symbol and a home for bees is now the symbol of Utah’s changing age structure.

Bregret ��������������������������������������������������������The regret felt by those who voted to leave the EU, and now wish they had not done so.

Drain the Swamp �����������������������������������A call to action to fix dysfunction in Washington, D.C. Entrepreneurial federalism ���������������States competing with public money to lure business. Critics call it an arms race, picking winners, or corporate welfare. Supporters call it the new normal.

Our Schools Now �����������������������������������A ballot initiative to invest $750 million into Utah’s education system.

Post-truth ���������������������������������������������������A political culture that appeals to emotion instead of fact. Last year, Oxford Dictionaries selected “post-truth” international word of the year.

Resilience ���������������������������������������������������The ability to fall down nine times and get up ten.

Solopreneur ���������������������������������������������A person developing their own personal brand, a niche for themselves in their own marketplace.

STEMpathy �����������������������������������������������STEM jobs are all the rage, but those with STEM skills who can relate to others and show empathy will thrive.

TEOTWAWKI ���������������������������������������������The End Of The World As We know It The new Utah County ���������������������������Economic and political power shifts south. It’s not your grandfather’s county anymore.

The new Point of the Mountain �������One chance to get it right!

TrumpCare �������������������������������������������������The coming evolution of the U.S. health system.

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Global and National

|

5

Current US economic expansion among Current US economic expansion among the the longest, slowest on record longest, slowest on record Duration of U.S. economic expansions

Start Date

Duration of US economic expansions

March 1933 June 1938 October 1945 October 1949 May 1954 April 1958 February 1961 November 1970 March 1975 July 1980 November 1982 March 1991 November 2001Â June 2009Â

50 months 80 months 37 months 45 months (6.9%) 39 months (4.0%) 24 months (5.6%) 106 months (4.9%) 36 months (5.1%) 58 months (4.5%) 12 months (4.4%) 92 months (4.4%) 120 months (3.6%) 73 months (2.8%) 92 months as of Jan. 2017 (2.1%)

0

20

40

60 80 Months

100

120

Note: Average annual GDP growth in parentheses; data unavailable prior to 1949.

Sources: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of National Bureau of Research and Bureau of Economic Analysis data

6

|

Global and National

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Worries about a US recession Worries about a US recession fell fell during last half of 2016 duringthe the half of 2016 Worries about a last US recession fell during the last half of 2016

Odds of US recessionOdds in next 12 ofmonths US recession

in next 12 months Odds of US recession in next 12 months

25.0% 25.0%

21.9% 21.0% 20.7% 20.3% 20.2% 19.8% 19.6% 21.9% 19.0% 21.3% 18.5% 21.0% 20.7% 20.3% 20.2% 19.8% 19.6% 16.9% 16.8% 19.0% 18.5% 21.3%

20.0% 20.0% 16.9% 15.0%

16.8%

15.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Source: Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey Source: Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Global and National

|

7

US consumer dence reaches a US consumercon confidence reaches a 10-year high at at end of 2016 10-year high end of 2016 US consumer con dence reaches a 10-year high atCon end dence of 2016 Consumer Confidence Index Consumer Index Seasonally adjusted, 1985 = 100

120.0

Seasonally adjusted, 1985 = 100

Consumer Con dence Index Seasonally adjusted, 1985 = 100

80.0

80.0

60.0

60.0

40.0

40.0

20.0

20.0

0.0

0.0

Dec-06 May-07 Oct-07Dec-06 Mar-08May-07 Aug-08Oct-07 Jan-09Mar-08 Jun-09Aug-08 Nov-09Jan-09 Apr-10Jun-09 Sep-10Nov-09 Feb-11Apr-10 Jul-11Sep-10 Dec-11Feb-11 May-12 Jul-11 Oct-12Dec-11 Mar-13May-12 Aug-13Oct-12 Jan-14Mar-13 Jun-14Aug-13 Nov-14Jan-14 Apr-15Jun-14 Sep-15Nov-14 Feb-16Apr-15 Jul-16Sep-15 Dec-16Feb-16

100.0

Jul-16 Dec-16

120.0 100.0

Source: The Conference Board

Source: The Conference Board

8

|

Global and National

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Will partisan con uncertainty ict increase Will partisan conflict increase in 2017?

uncertainty in 2017?

Will partisan con ict increase Partisan Conflict Index Partisanin Con ict Index uncertainty 2017?

1990 average = 100

300.0

1990 average = 100

Partisan Con ict Index 1990 average = 100

300.0 250.0 250.0 200.0 200.0 150.0 150.0 100.0 50.0

50.0

0.0

0.0

Dec-06 May-07 Oct-07 Dec-06 Mar-08 May-07 Aug-08 Oct-07 Jan-09 Mar-08 Jun-09 Aug-08 Nov-09 Jan-09 Apr-10 Jun-09 Sep-10 Nov-09 Feb-11 Apr-10 Jul-11 Sep-10 Dec-11 Feb-11 May-12 Jul-11 Oct-12 Dec-11 Mar-13 May-12 Aug-13 Oct-12 Jan-14 Mar-13 Jun-14 Aug-13 Nov-14 Jan-14 Apr-15 Jun-14 Sep-15 Nov-14 Feb-16 Apr-15 Jul-16 Sep-15 Feb-16 Jul-16

100.0

Note: The Partisan Con ict Index measures the frequency of articles in major U.S. newspapers reporting political disagreement.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Note: The Partisan Con ict Index measures the frequency of articles in major U.S. newspapers reporting political disagreement.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Global and National

|

9

What do hollow trees have to do with the 2016 election?

“You don’t know a tree is hollow until you push hard against it and it falls. The establishments of both parties did not know, a year ago, that they were hollow trees.

They thought themselves strong because they always had been, and people think what has been true will continue. Then suddenly the tree is pushed and falls. To me that is the symbol, the image of 2016: the hollowed trees and how easily they fell.”

– Peggy Noonan

Source: Peggy Noonan, Wall Street Journal, November 25, 2016

10

|

Global and National

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Fed funds back toto2008 level of 2018?

Fed rate funds rate back 2008 level by by end end of 2018?

Fed funds rate back to 2008 level by end of 2018?

Effective federal funds rate Actual and projected

Actual and Projected E ective Federal Funds Rate

6.0%

5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0%

Actual and Projected

5.0%

Actual Projected Actual Projected

4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0%

Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Jun-06 Dec-07 Dec-06 Jun-08 Jun-07 Dec-08 Dec-07 Jun-09 Jun-08 Dec-09 Dec-08 Jun-10 Jun-09 Dec-10 Dec-09 Jun-11 Jun-10 Dec-11 Dec-10 Jun-12 Jun-11 Dec-12 Dec-11 Jun-13 Jun-12 Dec-13 Dec-12 Jun-14 Jun-13 Dec-14 Dec-13 Jun-15 Jun-14 Dec-15 Dec-14 Jun-16 Jun-15 Dec-16 Dec-15 Jun-17 Jun-16 Dec-17 Dec-16 Jun-18 Jun-17 Dec-18 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18

6.0%

E ective Federal Funds Rate

Source: Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey Source: Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Global and National

|

11

China now produces a quarter of China now produces a quarter of the world’s China produces a output quarteroutput of the now world’s manufacturing manufacturing the world’s manufacturing output

Share of world manufacturing Shareoutput of world 2000 vs. 2016

manufacturing output Share of world manufacturing output 2000 vs. 2016 2000 vs. 2016

30.0% 2000 30.0% 2000 2016 25.0%2016 25.0%

25.0% 23.5%

20.0% 20.0%

17.5% 17.5%

15.0% 15.0% 10.0% 10.0%

12.5% 12.5% 8.2% 8.2%

6.4%

9.1%

8.8%

9.1%

4.4% 3.4% 6.4% 2.7% 2.5% 2.4% 4.4% 3.4% 1.5% 2.7% 2.5% 2.4% 0.0% 1.5%

5.0% 5.0%

25.0%

23.5%

8.8% 3.3% 1.9%

3.3% 1.9%

2.9% 1.9%

2.9% 1.9%

3.2% 1.9% 1.8% 1.6% 3.2% 1.9% 1.8% 1.6%

0.0%

Source: Richard Barkham, CBRE Source: Richard Barkham, CBRE

12

|

Global and National

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Precariously low in ation rates Precariously low inflation rates Precariously low in ation rates Core In ation 2016 Core In Q3 ation

Core Inflation Q3 2016

2.5% 2.5%

Q3 2016

Core In ation

2.2%

Target Core In ation 2.2%

2.0% Target 2.0%

1.8%

1.8%

1.5%

1.5% 1.5% 1.2%

1.0% 1.0%

0.6%

0.5%

0.6%

0.3%

0.5%

0.1%

0.3%

0.0% 0.0%

1.5%

1.2%

Canada

Canada

France

France

Germany

Germany

Italy

Italy

0.1%

Japan

Japan

UK UK

U.S. U.S.

Source: Richard Barkham, CBRE Source: Richard Barkham, CBRE

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Global and National

|

13

Budget de cits expected to grow over the next decade

Budget deficit expected to grow over the next decade

Federal budget Federal budget deficits and surpluses Percent of Gross Domestic Product

de cits (-) and surpluses

Percent of Gross Domestic Product

4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

-12.0%

Actual Projected 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

-10.0%

Source: Congressional Budget O ce August 2016 Budget and Economic Outlook Source: Congressional Budget Office, August 2016 Budget and Economic Outlook

14

|

Global and National

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Higher Interest rates will boost the share of resources required to service the federal debt Net interest overlays vs. federal debt 12-Month moving sum, total debt held by the public 4.0%-

-80%

3.5%-

-70%

3.0%-

-60%

2.5%-

-50%

2.0%-

-40%

1.5%-

-30%

1.0%-

-20%

0.5%-

-10% -0%

0.0%I 80

I 82

I 84

I 86

I 88

I 90

I 92

I 94

I 96

I 98

I 00

I 02

I 04

I 06

I 08

I 10

I 12

I 14

I 16

Net interest as a share of GDP: Sept @ 1.3% (Left Axis) Public debt as a share of GDP: Sept @75.7% (RIght Axis)

Source: U.S. Departments of the Treasury, U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Global and National

|

15

What does the future hold for USthe trade balance?

What does future hold for US trade balance?

What does the future hold for US trade balance?

US International trade balance US

international trade balance Billions, seasonally adjusted Billions, seasonally adjusted US international trade balance $0.0

Billions, seasonally adjusted

$0.0($10.0) ($10.0)($20.0) ($20.0)($30.0) ($30.0)($40.0) ($40.0)($50.0) ($50.0)($60.0) ($60.0)($70.0)

($80.0)

Oct-2006 Mar-2007 Oct-2006 Aug-2007 Mar-2007 Jan-2008 Aug-2007 Jun-2008 Jan-2008 Nov-2008 Jun-2008 Apr-2009 Nov-2008 Sep-2009 Apr-2009 Feb-2010 Sep-2009 Jul-2010 Feb-2010 Dec-2010 Jul-2010 May-2011 Dec-2010 Oct-2011 May-2011 Mar-2012 Oct-2011 Aug-2012 Mar-2012 Jan-2013 Aug-2012 Jun-2013 Jan-2013 Nov-2013 Jun-2013 Apr-2014 Nov-2013 Sep-2014 Apr-2014 Feb-2015 Sep-2014 Jul-2015 Feb-2015 Dec-2015 Jul-2015 May-2016 Dec-2015 Oct-2016 May-2016 Oct-2016

($70.0)($80.0)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Foreign Trade Programs and Products Source: U.S. Census Bureau Foreign Trade Programs and Products

16

|

Global and National

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

US economic competitiveness

= Activities largely controlled by public sector = Activities largely controlled by private sector

(Weakness but improving)

60%

(Strength and Improving)

U.S. Trajectory Compared to Other Advanced Economies

Entrepreneurship Universities Firm Management

40%

Clusters

20%

Capital Markets Innovation

Property Rights Hiring and Firing

Communications Infrastructure

0%

Macro Policy

-20%

Legal Framework Regulation

Health Care

-40%

-60%

Logistics Infrastructure

K-12 Education System Tax

-80% Code

Political System

(Weakness and Deteriorating)

-100% -60%

Skilled Labor

-40%

-20%

(Strength but Deteriorating) 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Current U.S. Position Compared to Other Advanced Economies

Source: Harvard Business School Survey on U.S. Competitiveness and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute.

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Global and National

|

17

Doing more with less

Production & jobs in manufacturing sector Index, Jan 1979 = 100 240-

-240

200-

-200

160-

-160

120-

-120

80-

-80

40-

-40

0-

I 79

I 84

I 89

I 94

I 99

I 04

I 09

I 14

-0

Manufacturing production: November @ 202.6 Manufacturing employment: November @ 63.2

Source: U.S. Departments of Commerce & Labor and Wells Fargo Securities

18

|

Global and National

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Sluggish productivity growth limits economic potential

Nonfarm productivity Two-year moving average, year-over-year percent change 5%-

-5%

4%-

-4%

3%-

-3%

2%-

-2%

1%-

-1%

0%-

-0%

-1%-

60

64

68

72

76

80

84

88

92

86

00

04

08

12

16

- -1%

nLabor productivity: Q3 @ 0.4%

Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Global and National

|

19

SocialSix media increasingly for news; in 10 Americans got newsused from social media inone 2016in six Americans got news site inone 2016 Social media increasingly usedfrom for news; in six Americans gotacross newssocial frommedia site inplatforms 2016 News use across social media platforms News use News use across social media platforms Portion of US adults who get news on

How often US adults get news on a social networking site, 2016 How often US adults get news on a social networking site, 2016

popular social networking sites Portion of US adults who get news on 50% popular social networking sites 2013 2016 50%

Often 18.0% Often Never18.0% 38.0% Never 38.0%

Sometimes 26.0%

Sometimes 26.0% Hardly Ever 18.0% Hardly Ever 18.0%

45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

44%

45%

40%44% 35% 30%

2013

2016

30%

25% 30% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

10% 10% 10% 10%

8% 9%

Facebook YouTube

Facebook YouTube

8% 9%

Twitter

Twitter

Source: Pew Research Center Source: Pew Research Center

20

|

Global and National

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Utah County in population growthgrowth in Over 30 percent of leads Utah’s population Over 30 percent of Utah’s population Utah county in 2016growth in Utah county in 2016

Utah population growth, 2015-2016 Utah population

growth, 2015 - 2016 Utah population growth, 2015 - net 2016 decline BOX ELDER 1,067 BOX ELDER 1,067

CACHE 2,052

CACHE 2,052

0 - 2,500 RICHnet decline 8 2,501 - 5,000

0 - 2,500 RICH 8 5,001 - 10,000 2,501 - 5,000 WEBER 2,935 > 10,000 5,001 10,000 WEBER DAVIS MORGAN 2,935 442 DAGGETT 6,555 > 10,000 SUMMIT DAVIS MORGAN -10 772 442 DAGGETT 6,555 SALT SUMMIT LAKE -10 14,223 772 TOOELE SALT LAKE 2,023 14,223 WASATCH DUCHESNE TOOELE 1,382 -213 2,023 UINTAH WASATCH UTAH DUCHESNE -815 1,382 17,668 -213 UINTAH UTAH -815 17,668 JUAB CARBON 470 JUAB 24 CARBON 470 24 SANPETE 401 MILLARD SANPETE GRAND EMERY 187 401 MILLARD 176 -85 GRAND EMERY 187 SEVIER 176 -85 279 SEVIER 279 BEAVER PIUTE WAYNE 72 -27 -6 BEAVER PIUTE WAYNE 72 -27 -6 IRON GARFIELD 1,336 26 IRON GARFIELD SAN JUAN 1,336 26 400 SAN JUAN 400 WASHINGTON KANE 5,757 310 WASHINGTON KANE 5,757 310

Note: 57,401 growth statewide.

Note: Utah's population grew 57,401 people to 3,054,806 Utahns in 2016.

Note: 57,401 growth Source: Utahstatewide.

Population Committee

Source: Utah Population Committee

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

People

|

21

Growth Growth in Utah’s school-age population expected in Utah’s school-age population expected to slow over the next next decade to slow over the decade Growth in Utah’s school-age population expected over the nextage decade Utah population ageto 5 toslow 17 Utah population 5 to 17 Utah population age 5 to 17

1,000,000

0.025 0.03 2.5% 0.02 0.025 2.0% 0.015 0.02 1.5% 0.01 0.015 1.0% 0.005 0.01 0.5%

-0.5% -0.005

2065

2060

2055

0

-0.005

2065

2050

2060

2045

2055

2040

2050

2035

2045

2030

School age population (5-17)

2040

2025

2035

2020

2030

2015

2025

2010

2020

2005

2015

2000

2010

1995

2005

1990

2000

1985

0 0.005 0.0%

1995

1985

0

0.03 0.035 3.0%

1990

900,000 1,000,000 800,000 900,000 700,000 800,000 600,000 700,000 500,000 600,000 400,000 500,000 300,000 400,000 200,000 300,000 100,000 200,000 0 100,000

3.5% 0.035

Annual growth

Note: Data prior to 2016 are estimates; data for 2016 and beyond are projections.

School age population (5-17)

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Annual growth

Note: Data prior to 2016 are estimates; data for 2016 and beyond are projections.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

22

|

People

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

AgingAging babybaby boomers driving projected boomers driving projected dependency ratio increase dependency ratio increase Aging baby boomers driving projected dependency ratio increase Depedency ratios in Utah and theRatios United States Dependency in Utah and the United States Dependency Ratios in Utah and the United States Youth

100 90

90

89.9 80

89.9

13.9

100

Youth

82.3

Retirees

Retirees

50

40

40

30

Utah U.S.

0

24.9 28.035.5 37.5

28.0 34.0 37.5 38.2

34.0 37.6 38.2 41.5

37.6 41.5

45.6 44.536.5 35.6

44.5 44.635.6 34.7

44.6 43.434.7 34.8

43.4 34.8

20.1

24.9 27.7 35.5

50.5 45.636.3 36.5

20.1

14.4 20.3

15.8

20.3

66.4

13.5

15.8 18.6

66.5

66.4 46.5

13.517.7

15.2 53.0 20.1 50.5 20.7 38.2 27.7 36.3

0

14.4 54.3 15.2 53.0 20.1 41.5 20.7 38.2

10

54.3 41.3 41.5

10

41.3

20

76.0 66.561.3 18.6 46.5

20

Utah Utah U.S. U.S. Utah Utah U.S. U.S. Utah Utah U.S. U.S. Utah Utah U.S. U.S. Utah Utah U.S. U.S. Utah Utah U.S. U.S. Utah Utah U.S. U.S. Utah Utah U.S. U.S. Utah Utah U.S. U.S. Utah U.S.

30

17.7

70

76.0 61.3

80

13.9

60

81.0 79.0 76.4 72.9 72.5 73.1 71.9 70.6 70.5 82.3 81.0 68.2 68.6 7079.0 80.0 79.0 65.1 76.4 64.0 61.6 61.6 73.1 72.9 71.9 72.5 58.9 70.6 70.5 60 68.2 68.6 65.1 64.0 61.6 61.6 58.9 50 79.0 80.0

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

Notes: Dependency ratios are computed as the number of nonworking age persons per 100 working age (18 -64 year 1970 1990 Youth 2000 2020 2030 age 2040 2050 2060 old) persons1980 in the population. are less 2010 than 18 years old and retirement is 65 years and older.

2020 – 2060 are projections.

Notes: Dependency ratios are computed as the number of nonworking age persons per 100 working age (18 -64 year old) persons in the population.

Youth are less than 18 years old and retirement 65 years and older. Policy 2020 –Institute 2060 Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Census Bureau age dataisand Kem C. Gardner are projections.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

People

|

23

Nearly three every ten Utah Are too of many 18 to 34 year olds young adults live with parents living with their Nearly three of every ten parents?

Utah young adults live withofparents Living arrangements of Utaharrangements adults in 2015 Living Utah adults in 2015 Living arrangements of Utah adults in 2015 100.0% 13.8%

100.0%90.0% 90.0%80.0%

13.8%

11.2%

80.0%70.0% 11.2%

11.2% 3.3% 5.0% 11.2% 3.9% 5.0% 3.9%

12.9% 12.9%

1.0%

61.8% 6.0%

50.0%40.0% 6.0%

68.0%

61.8%

0.0%

22.2%

18 to 34 4.2% 18 to 34

Other Relatives Child of Householder

Unmarried Partner Married Couple

20.0%10.0% 36.2% 4.2%

Other Nonrelatives

Child of Householder Unmarried Partner

68.0% 36.2%

30.0%20.0%

1.0%

Other Nonrelatives Other Relatives

60.0%50.0% 28.6%

10.0% 0.0%

1.8%

28.6%

70.0%60.0%

40.0%30.0%

1.8%

3.3%

8.6%

22.2%

8.6%35 to 64

35 to 64

Married Couple Lives alone Lives alone

65+ 65+

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates

24

|

People

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Growing old together Utah’sof35+ The-graying Utah share increasing while 35 and under share declining Growing old together - Utah’s 35+ share increasing Selected age groups as a35 percent of Utah’s population Selected age groups as total a percent of Utah’s total population while and under share declining Selected 100.0% age groups as a percent of Utah’s total population 6.9%

8.1%

8.5%

9.0%

11.8%

14.6%

16.2% 19.0% 90.0% 20.8% 100.0% 6.9% 24.8% 80.0% 8.1% 27.8% 8.5% 9.0% 11.8% 14.6% 30.4% 16.2% 31.8% 19.0% 90.0% 20.8% 34.1% 70.0% 34.8% 35.5% 24.8% 80.0% 34.9% 34.2% 27.8% 30.4% 60.0% 31.8% 34.1% 70.0% 31.3% 34.8% 27.6% 50.0% 35.5% 34.9% 28.9% 34.2% 27.6% 60.0% 24.5% 40.0% 23.8% 22.5% 31.3% 21.1% 21.1% 27.6% 50.0% 28.9% 30.0% 27.6% 24.5% 40.0% 23.8% 22.5% 20.0% 21.1% 37.0% 21.1% 36.5% 32.2% 31.5% 29.6% 30.0% 26.8% 25.8% 25.0% 24.0% 10.0% 20.0% 37.0% 36.5% 0.0% 32.2% 31.5% 29.6% 26.8% 25.8% 25.0% 24.0% 10.0% 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

0.0%

Children (0-17) Young Adults (18-34) Adults (35-64) Retirees (65+) 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Children Young Adults Adults (35-64) Sources: U.S. (0-17) Census Bureau Decennial Census(18-34) and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Retirees (65+)

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

People

|

25

Will fertility remain Utah'sUtah’s fertility rate is at a historic low level?

Willabove Utah’sreplacement fertility remain above replacement level?

Total fertilityTotal rates forfertility Utah and the Unitedfor States rates Utah and the United States Total fertility rates for Utah and the United States

5.0

Utah U.S. Utah Replacement Level U.S. Replacement Level

5.0

4.5

4.5

4.0

4.0

3.5

3.5

3.0

3.0

2.5

2.5

2.0

2.0

1.5

1.5

1.0

1.0

0.5

0.5

0.0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

0.0 Note: The replacement level is the total fertility rate at which the current population is replaced.

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: National Center for Health Statistics

Note: The replacement level is the total fertility rate at which the current population is replaced.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics

26

|

People

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Utah has more autism diagnoses than theautism national average Utah has more diagnoses than the national average 8-year olds identified with Autism Spectrum Disorder Utah has more autism diagnoses than the national average

8-year olds identified with Autism Spectrum Disorder

1 in 58 in Utah, 1 in 68 in United States 1 in 58 in Utah, 1 in 68 in United States

8-year olds identified with Autism Spectrum Disorder 1 in 58 in Utah, 1 in 68 in United States

Notes: Data are from the Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring (ADDM) Network. The national average is the average of the 11 states participating in ADDM Network in 2012.

Notes: Data are from the Autism and Control Developmental Disabilities Monitoring (ADDM) Network. The national average Source: Centers for Disease 2016 Community Report on Autism is the average of the 11 states participating in ADDM Network in 2012.

Source: Centers for Disease Control 2016 Community Report on Autism

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

People

|

27

Multilingual Utah

Multilingual Utah Primary languages spoken at home in Utah

Primary languages spoken at home in Utah

Note: Utahns speak 141 primary languages at home.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey

28

|

People

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Minorities’ share ofofUtah up Minorities' share Utah population population more than doublessince in 25 years almost threefold 1980 Minorities’ share of Utah Minorities’ population share of

Utah population

Minorities’ share of Utah population up almost threefold since 1980 2000 1990 Minorities’ share of Utah population 3.7%

3.9%

87.3%

91.2%

4.9%

9.0%

2000

1990 3.9%

3.7% 87.3%

91.2%

4.9%

9.0%

2010

6.7%

2015

7.3%

79.0%

80.3% 13.0%

2010

6.7%

▪

Hispanic or Latino

13.0%

▪

13.7% 7.3%

2015

80.3%

Other Minority (Not Hispanic or Latino)

13.7%

▫

79.0%

White, Not Hispanic or Latino

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division and U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census

▪

Hispanic or Latino

▪

Other Minority (Not Hispanic or Latino)

▫

White, Not Hispanic or Latino

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division and U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

People

|

29

The beehive

The beehive—Utah’s changing age structure

Utah population pyramid 1960, 2015 and 2065

100+ 95 90 85 100+ 80 95 75 90 70 85 80 65 75 60 70 55 65 50 60 45 55 40 50 35 45 30 40 25 35 20 30 25 15 20 10 5 15 0 10 5 40,000 0 40,000

30,000

The beehive Utah population pyramid 1960, 2015, and 2065

Male - 2065 Projection Utah population pyramid

Female - 2065 Projection Female - 2015 Female - 1960

Male - 2015 1960, Male 2015, - 1960and 2065

Male - 2065 Projection Male - 2015 Male - 1960

30,000 20,000

20,000 10,000

Note: The top age group for 1960 is 85+.

10,000 0

Female - 2065 Projection Female - 2015 Female - 1960

0 10,000

10,000 20,000

20,000 30,000

30,000

40,000

40,000

Sources: Census Bureau, Note: The top age U.S. group for 1960 is 85+.Utah Population Committee, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Utah Population Committee, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

30

|

People

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Most of Utah’s migrants come from the West

from the West

from the West

Top 10 sources of migrationTop to Utah 10 sources of migrants to Utah

Top 10 sources of migrants to Utah

WA 4,271 WA OR 4,271 2,988 OR 2,988

ID 7,138 WY 2,452

ID 7,138 NV 5,269

WY 2,452

CA NV 15,087 5,269 CA 15,087

AZ 7,127

CO 4,808

VA 2,321

CO 4,808

VA 2,321

AZ 7,127

TX 4,859 TX 4,859

Note: Migrants from U.S. only. All estimates are subject to sampling error.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010-2014 American Community Survey (ACS) Note: Migrants from U.S. only. All estimates are subject to sampling error.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010-2014 American Community Survey (ACS)

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

People

|

31

Nine states have a higher uninsured rate Nine statesthan have a higher uninsured Utah; thirty have lower rate rate than

Nine states have a higher Utah; thirty uninsured have lowerrate ratethan Percent of population without thirty health insurance in lower 2015 Utah; have rate U.S. = 9.4% WA 6.6% OR 7.0%

CA 8.6%

WA 6.6% OR 7.0%

MT ID 11.6% 11.0%

ID 11.0%

NVCA 8.6% 12.3%

NV 12.3% UT 10.5%

AZ 10.8%

AK 14.9%

AK 14.9%

HI 4.0%

HI 4.0%

WY 11.5% UT 10.5% CO 8.1% AZ 10.8% NM 10.9%

MT 11.6% ND 7.8% WY 11.5%SD 10.2% NE CO8.2% 8.1%

ND 7.8%

ME VT 3.8% 8.4%

MN 4.5%

MN SD 4.5% 10.2%

ME VT 3.8% 8.4%

NH 6.3% NY MA MI NH 7.1% 2.8% 6.1% 6.3% WI NY RI MA MI CT 5.7%IA 7.1% PA 2.8% 6.0%5.7% 6.1% 5.0% 6.4% RI OH NJ CT PA 5.7%8.7% IN 6.5% IL 6.0% 7.1% OH 9.6% 6.4% WV NJ MD 6.0% VA IL MOIN 6.5% 6.6% 8.7%

WI 5.7%

NE 8.2% IA 5.0% KS 9.1% MO 9.8% OK

WVKY 9.1% MD 6.0%VA 6.0% KS 6.6% NC KY TN 9.1% 9.1% 11.2% 6.0% 10.3% NC SC AR NM 13.9% TN 11.2% 10.9% 9.5% 10.9% OK 10.3% AL SC GA AR MS 13.9% 10.9%13.9% 9.5% 12.7% 10.1% GA TX MS LAAL 10.1% 13.9% 17.1% 12.7% 11.9% TX LA FL 17.1% 13.3% 11.9% FL 13.3% 9.6% 7.1% 9.8%

Rate lower than Utah*

Rate notUtah* statistically different than Utah Rate lower than higher than Utah* Rate not Rate statistically different than Utah

Rateconfidence. higher than Utah* *Difference is statistically different from zero with 90 percent Sources: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, 2015 1-year estimates *Difference is statistically different from zero with 90 percent confidence.

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, 2015 1-year estimates 32

|

People

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

health care costsimpact impactglobal globalcompetitiveness competitiveness USUS health care costs US health care costs impact global competitiveness Health care expenditures shareofofGDP: GDP:2015 2015 Health care expenditures asasa ashare

Health care expenditures as a share of GDP: 2015 Select OECD Countries Select OECD Countries

Select OECD Countries

United States Switzerland Switzerland Japan Germany Germany Sweden France France Netherlands Belgium Belgium Austria Canada Canada Norway United Kingdom Finland United Kingdom New Zealand Ireland New Zealand Australia Italy Australia Spain Korea Spain Mexico

Mexico 0 0

16.9

11.5 11.5 11.2 11.2 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.0 11.0 10.8 10.810.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.1 10.1 9.9 9.9 9.8 9.8 9.6 9.6 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.3 9.1 9.1 9.0 7.2 9.0

16.9

5.87.2

2

5.8

4

6

5

8

10

Percent 10 of GDP Percent of GDP

12

14

15

16

18 20

Source: Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development, OECD.stat

Source: Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development, OECD.stat

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

People

|

33

Thirty-four a higherpoverty poverty rate than Thirty-four states states havehave a higher rate than have lower Utah; 3 Utah; have3 lower rate Thirty-four states have a higher poverty rate than Percent of population with income below poverty level, 2015 U.S. = 14.7% Utah; 3 have lower rate WA 12.2% OR 15.4%

WA 12.2%

ID 15.1% MT 14.6%

OR 15.4%

ID 15.1% CA 15.3%

CA 15.3%

MT 14.6%

NV 14.7%

NV 14.7%

UT WY 11.3% 11.1%

UT 11.3%

AKAZ 10.3% 17.4%

AZ CO 17.4% 11.5%

NM 20.4% HI 10.6%

AK 10.3% HI 10.6%

WY ND 11.1% 11.0%

ND 11.0%

MN 10.2%

SD 13.7%

ME VT 10.2% 13.4% WI 12.1%

MI 15.8%

NY

ME 15.4% VT 10.2% 13.4%

NH 8.2% MA 11.5% RI CT 13.9% 10.5%

MN IA PA NH 10.2% NE 12.2% 13.2% OH 8.2% 12.6%WI SD IN NY IL NJ 14.8% MA MI 12.1% 13.7% CO 10.8% 11.5% MD 15.8% 13.6% 14.5%15.4% WV 9.7% KS 11.5% MO 17.9%CT VARI KY IA 13.0% PA 11.2% 13.9% 14.8% NE 10.5% 18.5% 12.2% 13.2% NC OH 12.6% TN IN 14.8% IL NJ16.4% OK 16.7% 10.8% MD 13.6% 14.5% SC WV AR NM 16.1% 9.7% KS MO 16.6% 17.9% VA 19.1% 20.4% KY 11.2% 13.0% AL 14.8% GA 18.5% MS 18.5% 22.0% NC 17.0% TN 16.4% TX OK LA 16.7% SC AR 15.9% 16.1% 19.6% 16.6% 19.1% FL AL GA MS 15.7% 22.0% 18.5% 17.0% TX LA Rate lower than Utah* 15.9% 19.6% FL Rate not statistically different than Utah 15.7%

Rate higher than Utah* Rate lower than Utah* *Difference is statistically different from zero with 90 percent confidence.

Rate not different than Utah Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, 2015statistically 1-year estimates Rate higher than Utah*

*Difference is statistically different from zero with 90 percent confidence.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, 2015 1-year estimates

34

|

People

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Wasatch Front and Wasatch Back lead post recession job recovery Employment change, Q1 2008 – Q1 2016

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Jobs

|

35

Utah’s Largest Employers

Employers with 4,000 or more average annual jobs in 2015 Company

Industry

Jobs

Intermountain Healthcare

Health Care

20,000 +

State of Utah

State Government

20,000 +

University of Utah (Including Hospital)

Higher Education

20,000 +

Brigham Young University

Higher Education

15,000-19,999

Wal-Mart Associates

Warehouse Clubs/Supercenters

15,000-19,999

Hill Air Force Base

Federal Government

10,000-14,999

Davis County School District

Public Education

7,000-9,999

Granite School District

Public Education

7,000-9,999

Utah State University

Higher Education

7,000-9,999

Smith’s Food and Drug Centers

Grocery Stores

7,000-9999

Alpine School District

Public Education

7,000-9,999

U.S. Department of Treasury

Federal Government

5,000-6,999

Jordan School District

Public Education

5,000-6,999

Salt Lake County

Local Government

5,000-6,999

Utah Valley University

Higher Education

5,000-6,999

U.S. Postal Service

Federal Government

4,000-4,999

Zions Bank Mangement Services

Banking

4,000-4,999

The Canyons School District

Public Education

4,000-4,999

The Home Depot

Home Centers

4,000-4,999

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

36

|

Jobs

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Employment has surpassed 2007 peak in all but three sectors Employment as a percent of 2007 peak November, 2016

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Jobs

|

37

Financial activities a particularly bright spot in Utah

Utah employment by industry

Expanding

Annualized rate of change: Aug 16 – Nov 16

Improving

Contracting

38

|

Jobs

Slowing

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Has unemploymentbottomed bottomed out in Utah?

Has unemployment out in Utah?

Has unemployment bottomed out in Utah?

Utah Headline and U-6 unemployment rates

Utah Headline and U-6 unemployment rates

U-6 rate includes marginally attached and part-time for economic reasons

U-6 rate includes marginally attached and part-time forrates economic reasons Utah Headline and U-6 unemployment 16.0% U-6 rate includes"Headline" marginallyrate attached and part-time for economic reasons 16.0% 14.0% U-6 rate "Headline" rate 14.0% 12.0% U-6 rate 12.0% 10.0% 10.0% 8.0% 8.0% 6.0% 6.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Jobs

|

39

Plateau in public sector growth?

Plateau in public sector jobjob growth?

Plateau in public sector job growth?

Job index for UtahJob publicindex and private forsectors Utah Seasonally adjusted, 100 = level at 2009 trough

private and public sectors

Seasonally adjusted, 100 = level at 2009 trough

Job index for Utah private and public sectors

130.0

Private Seasonally adjusted, 100 = level at 2009 trough

130.0 125.0Private Federal Government State & Local Government 125.0 120.0Federal Government State & Local Government Federal government recession response and 120.0 115.0 115.0 110.0

Decennial Census Federal government recession response and Decennial Census

110.0 105.0 105.0 100.0 100.0

95.0

95.0

90.0

90.0

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics

40

|

Jobs

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Utah school districts’ graduation rates Utah school districts’ graduation rates Utah school districts' graduation rates range range from 6868 percent to98 from 68percent percent to percent range from to98 98percent percent 4-year graduation rates school district, 2016 4-year graduation rates by school district, 2016byby 4-year graduation rates school district, 2016 Box Elder Box Elder 87% 87%

Rich Rich Cache 90Cache 9094% 100% 94% 100% Davis Davis 94% 94%

Granite 73% Granite 73% Jordan 87% Jordan 87%

Tooele Tooele 91% 91%

TinticTintic 80-89% 80-89%

Millard Millard 93% 93%

Beaver Beaver 83% 83% Iron Iron 82% 82% Washington Washington 88% 88%

Logan 84% Logan 84% Ogden 68% Ogden 68% Weber 83% Weber 83% Morgan 92% Morgan 92% N. Summit 95 – 100% N. Summit 95 – 100%

S. Summit S. Summit 91% 91%

Daggett Daggett 80-100% 80-100%

Wasatch Duchesne Alpine Wasatch Duchesne Alpine 89% 91% Uintah 89% 84%84% 91% Uintah Nebo 79% Nebo 79% 90% 90% N. N. Carbon Carbon JuabJuab Sanpete Sanpete 97% 97% 97% 97% 76% 76% S. Sanpete S. Sanpete 89% 89% Grand Emery Grand Emery 86%86% 90%90% Sevier Sevier 85% 85% PiutePiute 80-89% 80-89%

Salt Lake 76% Salt Lake 76% Murray 79% Murray 79% Canyons 85% Canyons 85% Provo 71%71% Provo

Wayne Wayne 90%90%

Garfield Garfield 88% 88% KaneKane 92% 92%

Park City 91% Park City 91%

San Juan San Juan 85%85%

datadata shown in box labels shown in box labels <70% <70% 70-79% 70-79% 80-89% 80-89% 90-100% 90-100%

Notes: Statewide rate rate was was 85%85% in 2016.

Percentages for small groups of less thanthan 40 students are are obscured by by Notes: Statewide in 2016.

Percentages for small groups of less 40 students obscured showing the range in which the percentage falls.falls. showing the range in which the percentage Education Source: UtahUtah StateState O ce Source: O ofce of Education

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Education

|

41

Public schools lose over one-third of Public schools lose over one-third of newnew teachers after four years teachers after four years teachers Public schools lose over one-third of new teachers after four years

Retention of new Utah Retention of new Utah teachers 2010-2011 Cohort 2010-2011 Cohort 100.0% 90.0% 100.0%

80.0%

90.0%

70.0%

80.0%

60.0%

70.0%

50.0%

60.0%

40.0%

50.0%

30.0%

2010-2011 Cohort

84.5%

84.5%

40.0%

20.0%

30.0%

10.0%

20.0%

0.0%

73.8%

73.8%

2011-2012

10.0% 0.0%

Retention of new Utah teachers

Source: Utah State Board of Education

2011-2012

2012-2013

64.4%

64.4%

2012-2013 2013-2014

58.4%

58.4%

2013-2014

2014-2015

2014-2015

Source: Utah State Board of Education

42

|

Education

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

More than one in ten Utahns More thanhas one in Utahns hasdegree a graduate degree aten graduate More than one in ten Utahns has a graduate degree Percent of population 25 years and over with graduate or Percent of population 25 years and over with a graduate or professional degree professional degree Percent of population 25 years and over with graduate or 14.0% United States professional degree Utah

14.0% 12.0% United States Utah

11.6%

12.0% 10.0% 10.0% 8.0% 8.0% 6.0%7.2%

8.9% 7.2%

10.7%

10.4%

6.8% 8.9%

9.4% 8.3% 10.4%

11.6% 10.7%

9.4% 8.3%

6.8%

6.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1990

2000

2010

2015

0.0% 2010 Census Source: U.S.1990 Census Bureau American 2000 Community Survey and Decennial

2015

Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey and Decennial Census

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Education

|

43

Utah educational attainment ranks 14th among states

Educational attainment for persons 25 years and over, 2015 Bachelorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s degrees or higher, U.S. = 30.6%

44

|

Education

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Utah tuition and fees rank 4th lowest among states

Average undergraduate tuition and fees U.S. = $8,543

) )

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Education

|

45

Despite some overlap, popular majors differ Despite some overlap, majors significantly bypopular gender differ significantly by gender

Top five undergraduate degrees for Utah men and women

Despite some overlap, popular majors differ Bachelorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s degrees completed in 2015 significantly by gender Top five undergraduate degrees for Utah men and women

Utah Men

Utah Women

Business, Management, for Utah men and women Health Professions and Top five undergraduate degrees Marketing, and Related Related Programs, 17.9% Support Services, 20.2%

Utah Men

Utah Women All other, 46.7%

All other, 46.7%

Business, Management, Marketing, and Related Support Services, 20.2%

All other, Health Professions and Related Programs, 17.9% 46.7%

Social Sciences , 9.3%

Engineering, 9.1% Social Sciences , & Biological 9.3% Biomedical Sciences , 7.8% Computer and Information SciencesEngineering, and Support Services , 6.9% 9.1%

All other, 46.7%

Education, 13.7%

Business, Management, Education, Marketing, and 13.7% Psychology, Related Support Services , 7.9% Social 7.1% Sciences , 6.7%

Business, Management, Marketing, and Biological & Related Support Psychology, Biomedical Note: Degrees completed at USHE institutions, BYU, and Westminster Services , 7.9% Social 7.1% Sciences , Sciences , Source: Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), 2014-2015 Provisional Release of Degree Completions 7.8% Computer and 6.7% Information Sciences and Support Services , 6.9%

Note: Degrees completed at USHE institutions, BYU, and Westminster Source: Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), 2014-2015 Provisional Release of Degree Completions

46

|

Education

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

InMany Utah any STEM majors continue STEM majors dominated by men in Utah In Utah to any STEM majors continue be dominated by men to be dominated by men

Top male and female dominated degrees in Utah Top male and female dominated degrees in Utah

Top male and female dominated degrees in Utah

Most male dominated degrees: Most male dominated degrees: Computer and Information Sciences

Male

Engineering Business, Management, Marketing, and Related Support Services Business, Management, Marketing, and Relatedand Support Services Biological Biomedical Sciences Biological andLanguages, BiomedicalLiteratures, Sciences and Foreign Linguistics Foreign Languages, Literatures, and Linguistics 0.0% 0.0%

Male

89.5%

and Support Computer and Information Sciences and Support Engineering

89.5% 88.9%

10.5% 11.1%

88.9% 72.4%

11.1% 27.6% 27.6% 35.5%

64.5% 64.1%

35.5% 35.9%

64.1% 20.0%

40.0% 40.0%

60.0%

0.0%

0.0%

20.0%

Male

87.2% 87.2%

19.5%

34.6%

80.0%

70.0%

40.0%

Female

78.0%

78.0%

40.0%

Female

80.5%

80.5%

20.0%

100.0% 100.0%

Male

Education Health Professions and Related19.5% 22.0% Programs Health Professions and Related English Language and 22.0% Programs 30.0% Literature/Letters English Language and 30.0% Literature/Letters Psychology 34.6% Psychology

35.9% 80.0%

60.0%

Most female dominated degrees: Most female dominated degrees: Family and Consumer Sciences 12.8% Family and Consumer Sciences 12.8% Education

Female10.5%

72.4% 64.5%

20.0%

Female

70.0% 65.4%

65.4% 60.0% 60.0%

Note: Bachelors degrees completed at USHE institutions, BYU, and Westminster in 2015

80.0% 80.0%

100.0% 100.0%

Note: Source: BachelorsIntegrated degrees completed at USHE institutions, BYU, and Westminster in 2015 Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), 2014-2015 Provisional Release of Degree Completions Source: Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), 2014-2015 Provisional Release of Degree Completions

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Education

|

47

Utah's middle class has shrunk since the 1980s

Share of households in the middle class

48

|

Income and Debt

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s distribution of income is among the most equal in the US

Gini Index of Income Equality 0 = complete equality; 1 = complete inequality

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Income and Debt

|

49

Real average hourly wages have improved but remain below 2007 average Utah real private average hourly earnings index Seasonally adjusted, 2007 average = 100

50

|

Income and Debt

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Net earnings contribution to personal income shrinking

Utah components of personal income

81.3% 81.3%

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

72.3% 72.3%

Income and Debt

|

51

Utah bankruptcy filing rate is declining in a strong economy, remains above US rate Consumer bankruptcy cases, Utah and US Number of Chapter 7, 11, and 13 cases commenced per 1,000 adult population

52

|

Income and Debt

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Real Salt Lake athletes play for love of the Real Salt Lake athletes play forthe the love ofgame the game

Real Salt Lake athletes play for the love of the game Real Lake RealSalt Salt Lake

(Tenhighest highest 2016 2016 salaries) salaries) (Ten

Real Salt Lake Player

Salary

(Ten highest 2016 salaries) Player

Juan Manuel Martinez

Kyle Beckerman Juan Manuel Martinez Javier Morales Kyle Beckerman

Salary

$1,060,000

$675,000 $1,060,000

Angeles Galaxy LosLos Angeles Galaxy (Ten highest highest 2016 2016 salaries) salaries) (Ten

LosPlayer Angeles Galaxy Salary (Ten highest 2016 salaries)

Player

Steven Gerrard

Robbie Keane Steven Gerrard

Salary

$6,000,000

$3,500,000 $6,000,000

$590,000 $675,000

Giovani Dos Santos $2,500,000 Robbie Keane $3,500,000

Nick Rimando Javier Morales

$400,000 $590,000

Gyasi Zardes Giovani Dos Santos

Chris Wingert Nick Rimando

$235,000 $400,000

Landon Donovan $456,000 Gyasi Zardes $472,500

Stephen Sunday Chris Wingert

$220,000 $235,000

Jelle Van Damme $425,000 Landon Donovan $456,000

Tony Beltran Stephen Sunday

$210,000 $220,000

Ashley Cole Jelle Van Damme

$300,000 $425,000

Jamison Olave Tony Beltran

$215,000 $210,000

Mike Magee Ashley Cole

$250,000 $300,000

Yura Movsisyan Jamison Olave

$200,000 $215,000

Robbie Rogers Mike Magee

$220,000 $250,000

Joao Plata Yura Movsisyan

$175,000 $200,000

A. J. DeLaGarxa Robbie Rogers

$225,000 $220,000

Joao Plata

$175,000

A. J. DeLaGarxa

$225,000

$472,500 $2,500,000

Source: Spotrac

Source: Spotrac

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Income and Debt

|

53

Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s per capita student loan debt hasdebt more Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s per capita student loan than tripled since 2003, ranks low has more than tripled since 2003, ranks low Utah per capita debt by loan type Utah per Constant 2015 dollars

capita debt by loan type Constant 2015 dollars

Loan Type

Q4 2003

Q4 2015

03 - 15

$

$

Change

Rank

Rank

Auto Loan

$3,851

18

$4,490

13

16.6%

Credit Card

$3,336

43

$2,640

29

-20.9%

$35,129

14

$38,420

12

9.4%

Student Loan

$1,005

45

$3,870

46

285.1%

Other

$3,358

-

$2,730

-

-18.7%

Total

$46,679

16

$52,150

13

11.7%

Mortgage Loan

Note: Per capita figures are limited to individuals 18 years and over.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, State Level Household Debt Statistics 2003-2015

54

|

Income and Debt

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Utah goods and services are less expensive Utah goods services than inand 23 other states are less

expensive than in 23 other states Regional Price Parities, 2014 Utah goodsRegional and services are less2014 Price Parities, expensive than in 23 other states WA 103.8

MT ND Regional Price Parities, 2014 94.2 91.5

OR 99.0

WA 103.8

CA 112.4

MN 97.6

ID 93.4 WY ND96.2 91.5

MT 94.2

OR 99.0

ID 93.4 CA 112.4 NV 97.7

NV 97.7 WY 96.2

UT 97.0

AK AZ 105.7 96.4

UT 97.0

AZ CO 96.4 102.0

NM 95.0 HI 116.8

AK 105.7

VT 101.2

SD 88.0

CO 102.0

NE 90.6 NM 95.0 KS 90.7 OK 90.1

TX 96.6

SD 88.0 MN 97.6

NE 90.6 WI 93.4 KS 90.7

WI 93.4

MI 94.1 VT

ME 101.2 97.1 PA 98.2 NH OH

IA 90.3

NY 115.7

IN 105.2 IL 89.3 NY WV MA 100.7 91.4 115.7 88.9 107.1 VA KY RI CT 102.6 IA PA 88.7 98.7 NC 108.8 90.3 98.2 TN OH 91.7 OK IN IL 90.2 NJ 89.3 90.1 91.4 AR WV 114.5 SC MD 100.7 87.5 88.9 VA 110.3 90.5 MO AL GA MS 102.6 KY 89.4 92.0 86.7 87.8 88.7 NC TX TN LA 91.7 96.6 90.2 91.4 AR SC FL 87.5 90.5 <90.099.1 AL GA MS 90.1 - 95.0 92.0 86.7 87.8 LA 91.4

MI 94.1MO 89.4

ME 97.1 NH 105.2 MA 107.1 RI CT 98.7 108.8

NJ 114.5 MD 110.3

<90.0 90.1 - 95.0 95.1 - 100.0 100.1 - 105.0 105.1 - 110.0 >110.0

95.1 - 100.0 FL 99.1

100.1 - 105.0 105.1 - 110.0

HI Note: Regional Price Parities measure the differences in price levels of goods and services>110.0 across regions for a given 116.8

year; they are expressed as a percentage of the overall national price level for each year.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Note: Regional Price Parities measure the differences in price levels of goods and services across regions for a given year; they are expressed as a percentage of the overall national price level for each year.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Sales and Prices

|

55

Utahns enjoy low-cost electricity Utahns enjoy low-cost electricity Utahns enjoy low-cost electricity Average retail price of electricity to residential sector Cents/kWh, September 2016 WA 9.6

WA 9.6

CA 18.2

MT ID11.6 10.3

OR 10.9 ID 10.3

OR 10.9

NV CA 11.2 18.2

NV 11.2 UT 11.3

AZ 12.8

AK 20.9

MT 11.6

WY 11.8

CO 12.8

KS 12.9 NM 12.9

VT

OK 11.1

TX 11.1 HI 27.8

ME 17.5 VT 16.3 17.5

MN 13.9

MN SD 13.9 12.5

NE CO 12.3 12.8

AK 20.9

HI 27.8

ND 11.9

WY SD 11.8 12.5

UT 11.3

AZ 12.8 NM 12.9

ND 11.9

NE IA 12.3 12.7 KS 12.9 MO 11.3 OK 11.1 AR 10.4 TX 11.1

LA 9.5

WI 14.8IA 12.7

WI 14.8 MI 15.8

MI 15.8

NY 18.4

ME 16.3

NH 18.4 NY NH MA 18.4 18.4 19.5 MA RI 19.5 CT 20.5 PA 19.0 14.2CT RI 20.5 NJ 19.0 16.2 NJ MD 16.2 VA 14.0 MD 11.7 14.0

OH PA IN IL 11.9 14.2 OH11.8 WV IN 12.2 IL 11.9 11.6 MO11.8 WV 12.2 KY 11.3 11.6 10.5 VA NC KY TN 11.7 11.4 10.5 NC 10.6 AR TN 11.4 SC 10.4 10.6 12.7 AL SC GA MS 12.7 12.3 11.9 AL 10.2 GA MS 11.9 10.2LA12.3 9.5 FL 11.4 FL < 11.5 c/kWh 11.4

11.5 - 13.0 c/kWh < 11.5 c/kWh - 17.5 c/kWh 11.5 - 13.013.1 c/kWh c/kWh 13.1 - 17.5> 17.5 c/kWh > 17.5 c/kWh

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

56

|

Sales and Prices

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Significant growth in nonstore retail activity Significant growth in nonstore retail activity

Composition of Utah Retail Sales

Composition of Utah retail sales 2006 vs. 2016

Significant growth in nonstore 2006 vs.retail 2016 activity

22.3% 22.7%

Motor vehicle & parts dealers 2016 of Utah Retail Sales 2006 Composition Nonstore retailers

9.2%

2006 vs. 2016

14.8%

13.9% 15.0% 22.3% 11.0% Motor vehicle & parts dealers 2016 Food & beverage stores 22.7% 10.9% 14.8% 2006 Nonstore retailers 9.3% Food services and drinking places 9.2% 7.5% 13.9% General merchandise stores 15.0% 7.3% Gasoline stations 10.0% 11.0% Food & beverage stores 10.9% 6.4% Building material & garden equip. & supplies 9.3% 8.1% Food services and drinking places 7.5% 3.6% Health &stations personal care stores 7.3% Gasoline 10.0%2.3% 3.3% 6.4% & clothing accessories stores Building material &Clothing garden equip. & supplies 3.6% 8.1%

General merchandise stores

3.6% Health & personal care stores Furniture & home furnishings stores 2.3%

Clothing & clothing accessories stores

3.3%

Sporting goods; hobby; book; & music3.6% stores

Furniture & home furnishings stores

2.6%

3.5% Miscellaneous store retailers

2.1% 2.7% Electronics & appliance 1.9%stores Miscellaneous store retailers 2.2% 1.4% Electronics & appliance stores 0.0% 2.3%

Sporting goods; hobby; book; & music stores

Note: 2016 is estimated.

0.0%

10.0%

2.6% 3.5% 2.1% 2.7% 1.9% 2.2% 1.4% 2.3%

10.0% 20.0%

20.0%

30.0%

30.0%

Source: Kem Note: 2016 is estimated.

Source: Kem

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Sales and Prices

|

57

-retailers

Most of the nationâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s largest e-retailers have nexus in Utah

have nexus in Utah -retailers in Utah Utahhave nexusnexus for largest US e-retailers Utah nexus for largest US e-retailers E-Retailers with more than $4 billion sales 2015than $4 billion sales in 2015 E-Retailers withinmore

Utah nexus for largest US e-retailers

E-Retailers with more than $4 billion sales in 2015 2015 Sales Utah E-Retailer ($ billions) Nexus Amazon.com Inc. E-Retailer Apple Inc. Amazon.com Dell Inc. Inc. Apple Inc. Walmart.com

2015 Sales $92.5UtahNo* ($ billions) $24.4NexusYes $92.5$15.7 No* Yes

Dell Inc. Staples Inc. Walmart.com Macy's Inc. Staples TheInc. Home Depot Inc. Macy's Inc. Wholesale Corp.

Costco The Home Office Depot Depot Inc. Inc. Costco Wholesale QVC Group Corp.

Office Depot Inc. Inc. W.W. Grainger

$24.4$13.7 Yes Yes $15.7$10.7 Yes Yes $13.7 $6.2 Yes Yes $10.7 $4.7 Yes Yes $6.2 $4.5 Yes Yes $4.7 $4.4 Yes Yes $4.5 $4.3 Yes No

QVC Best Group Buy Co.

$4.4 $4.1 Yes Yes $4.3 $4.0 No Yes

W.W. Grainger Inc.

$4.1

Yes

*Affiliates with nexus in Utah must collect and remit sale tax for Utah purchases. Amazon began voluntarily collecting Best Buy Co. $4.0 Yes and remitting sales tax for Utah on January 1, 2017.

Source: Internet Retailer and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute *Affiliates with nexus in Utah must collect and remit sale tax for Utah purchases. Amazon began voluntarily collecting and remitting sales tax for Utah on January 1, 2017.

Source: Internet Retailer and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

58

|

Sales and Prices

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Structural changes in tastes and preferences

Millenial expenditure growth Year-over-year percent change & change from 2012 to 2015 20%-

Recovering

Expanding

15%-

Food away from Home

10%Transportation 5%-

Housing-Owned Entertainment Alcohol

0%Apparel

Housing-Rented Food at Home

-5%-

-10%-

Contracting 20%

15%

Decelerating 10%

5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Percent change from three years ago Share of Average Total Expenditures <5.5%

5.5% â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 8.0%

>8.0%

Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Sales and Prices

|

59

Does Utah have a housing shortage?

Now more new households than new units Growth in housing units and households in Utah

60

|

Real Estate and Construction

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Sustainable construction job levels?

Construction jobs as a percent of all jobs

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Real Estate and Construction

|

61

Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s long-running housing price increase nineteenth highest in nation Real change in FHFA Home Price Index, 1980â&#x20AC;&#x201C;2015

62

|

Real Estate and Construction

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Elevated multifamily construction activity

Utah residential construction Permitted units

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Real Estate and Construction

|

63

Inflation-adjusted nonresidential construction value reached a record $2.5 billion in 2016 Value of permit-authorized construction in Utah Millions of constant 2016 dollars

64

|

Real Estate and Construction

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Will low for-sale inventory continue to push prices upwards?

Index of for-sale inventory Seasonally adjusted, 2010 average = 100

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Real Estate and Construction

|

65

Housing prices on the rise in Utah metros

Median existing home prices Utah metro areas

66

|

Real Estate and Construction

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Utah traveler spending at a record high Utah traveler spending at a record high

Utah travelers spending at a record high

Direct Direct Utah traveler spending Millions of constant 2015 dollars

Utah traveler spending Millions of constant 2015 dollars Direct Utah traveler spending

$9,000

Millions of constant 2015 dollars

$9,000$8,000 $8,000$7,000

$7,982

$7,571 $7,486 $6,812 $7,571 $7,486

$6,812 $7,000$6,000

$8,169

$7,530 $7,638 $8,169 $7,982 $7,530 $7,638

$7,277 $6,805 $7,277 $6,189 $6,805

$6,189

$6,000$5,000 $5,000$4,000 $4,000$3,000 $3,000$2,000 $2,000$1,000 $1,000

$0 2006

$0 2006

2007

2007

2008

2008 2009

2009 2010

2010 2011

2011 2012

2012 2013

2013 2014

2014

2015

2015

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of D.K. Shifflet and TNS Global data Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of D.K. Shifflet and TNS Global data

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Travel and Tourism

|

67

Travel and tourism activity in Utah bolsters significant Travel and tourism activity injobs Utah Utah bolsters significant jobs tourism-generated jobs

Travel and tourism activity in Utah bolsters significant jobs

Utah tourism-generated jobs

Utah tourism-generated jobs 145,000

142,500

145,000 140,000

142,500

138,800

140,000 135,000

138,800

137,200

136,900

137,200 132,700

136,900

135,000 130,000

132,700 129,600

126,200 130,000 124,500 125,000 126,200

125,000 120,000

124,500

125,400 125,400

126,800 129,600 125,000 126,800

125,000

120,000 115,000 115,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data

68

|

Travel and Tourism

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Chinese visitors claiming larger and larger Chinese visitors claiming larger and larger shares of claiming all foreign visitor spending Chinese visitors and larger shares of all foreignlarger visitor spending shares of all foreign visitor spending

International International visitor Visa card visitor Top markets and the rest of the world

visa card Utah spending shares Top markets and the rest ofspending the world shares International visitor visa card Utah 100.0%

Top markets and the rest of the world

100.0%90.0% 90.0%80.0%

43.9%

80.0%70.0% 43.9%

44.1% 44.1%

42.2% 42.2%

70.0%60.0% 60.0%50.0% 50.0%40.0% 40.0%30.0% 30.0%20.0%

26.7% 26.7% 25.0%

20.0%10.0%

25.4% 25.4%

24.4% 24.4%

50.5% 50.5%

43.4%

19.3% 19.3%

19.3%

19.3%

23.9%

25.5%

20.8%

23.9% 6.6%

25.5% 7.9%

20.8% 9.4%

25.0% 4.4% 10.0% 0.0% 7.9% 2014 6.6% 2013 4.4% 2012 0.0% China 2012 2013 EU & U.K.2014Canada

43.4%

9.4% 2015

25.3% 25.3% 12.0% 12.0%2016

Rest of World2016 2015

China EU & U.K. fromCanada Rest of World Note: Estimates are based on and extrapolated aggregate depersonalized card usage data.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of VisaVueÂŽ Travel data Note: Estimates are based on and extrapolated from aggregate depersonalized card usage data.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of VisaVueÂŽ Travel data

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Travel and Tourism

|

69

Total skier days up despite lower average annual snowfall Total skier days up despite lower average annual snowfall Utah skier days vs. total annual snowfall Utah skier days vs. total annual snowfall

Total skier days up despite lower average annual snowfall

700.0

Utah skier days vs. total annual snowfall

5.0

Skier Days (millions) Snowfall (inches; Alta, Utah) Skier Days (millions)

5.0

4.5

Snowfall (inches; Alta, Utah)

4.5

4.0

4.0

3.5

3.5

3.0

3.0

2.5

2.5

2.0

300.0 200.0

2.0

1.5

200.0 100.0

1.5

1.0

1.0

0.5

0.5

0.0

700.0 600.0 600.0 500.0 500.0 400.0 400.0 300.0

0.0

0.0

1995-96 1996-97 1995-96 1997-98 1996-97 1998-99 1997-98 1999-00 1998-99 2000-01 1999-00 2001-02 2000-01 2002-03 2001-02 2003-04 2002-03 2004-05 2003-04 2005-06 2004-05 2006-07 2005-06 2007-08 2006-07 2008-09 2007-08 2009-10 2008-09 2010-11 2009-10 2011-12 2010-11 2012-13 2011-12 2013-14 2012-13 2014-15 2013-14 2015-16 2014-15 2015-16

100.0

0.0

Sources: Ski Utah and Alta Avalanche Center Sources: Ski Utah and Alta Avalanche Center

70

|

Travel and Tourism

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

UtahUtah parks draw record visitation parks draw record visitation Utah parks draw record visitation Utah national Utah national park and place visitation Millions of visitors

park and place visitation Millions visitorsvisitation Utah national park andofplace

14.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0

National Places

Millions of visitors

National Parks

12.0National Places

13.2 11.9 13.2

10.711.9 10.4 10.1 4.9 10.0 9.8 9.5 9.5 10.0 9.3 10.7 9.2 10.4 8.9 9.0 9.1 8.9 4.6 10.1 4.9 10.1 10.3 9.9 9.8 10.0 9.5 9.3 9.2 9.5 4.1 4.1 4.6 3.8 8.9 9.0 9.1 8.9 4.0 8.0 4.6 4.8 3.8 4.6 3.8 4.5 4.1 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.7 4.1 4.1 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.6 4.8 4.6 3.8 6.0 4.5 4.1 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.7 National Parks 10.1 10.3 9.9

4.0

7.2

8.4

6.1 6.3 6.6 6.3 8.4 5.5 5.5 5.3 4.9 5.1 5.0 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.5 5.7 6.0 7.2 2.0 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.3 5.5 5.5 5.3 4.9 5.1 5.0 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.5 5.7 6.0

0.0

0.0 Note: National Places include national monuments, recreation areas, and historic sites; Flaming Gorge NRA data not included.

Note: National include national recreation areas,Park andService historicdata sites; Flaming Gorge NRA data not Source:Places Kem C. Gardner Policy monuments, Institute analysis of National included.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of National Park Service data

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Travel and Tourism

|

71

Only DC has faster internet speeds than Utah

Highest internet connection speeds in the US Average mbps, Q3 2016

72

|

Resources

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Utah a top state for solar

States with most solar electric capacity installed in 2015 Megawatts installed

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Resources

|

73

Utah contributes just over one percent to nationâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s energy production Statesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; share of total US energy production 87,228 trillion Btu, 2014

74

|

Resources

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Utah consumes less energy per capita than national average

Energy consumption per capita Million Btu, 2014

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Resources

|

75

High record temperatures more common than low record in recent decade Salt Lake City temperature records Number of daily high and low records set in each 10-year period

Note: Lines are 3-period moving averages

76

|

Resources

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Drought conditions improve

Share of Utah land area in drought conditions Average annual weekly drought percentages

Note: 2016 is an estimate Source: United States Drought Monitor

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Resources

|

77

Utah one of eleven states with triple-triple rating States with triple-triple rating AAA rating from Fitch, Moodyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s, and S&P

ntriple-triple rating

Source: The Bond Buyer, Novermber 2016

78

|

Fiscal

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Almost a quarter of all state sales and use tax collections are earmarked State of Utah sales and use tax collections Millions of current dollars

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Fiscal

|

79

Utah has a healthy rainy day fund

State of Utah budget reserve accounts Millions of current dollars

80

|

Fiscal

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Education, education, education

Budget of the State of Utah All funds, Fiscal Year 2017

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Fiscal

|

81

Utah exports begin to recover

Utah merchandise exports (millions of dollars)

82

|

International Trade

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Utah is global

Top ten Utah export purchasing countries: 2015 (millions of dollars)

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

International Trade

|

83

Tharâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s gold in them thar hills

Top ten Utah export industries: 2015 (millions of dollars)

84

|

International Trade

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

The age of acceleration

â&#x20AC;&#x153;When I wrote 'The World Is Flat,' I said the world is flat. Yeah, we're all connected. Facebook didn't exist; Twitter was a sound; the cloud was in the sky; 4G was a parking place; LinkedIn was a prison; applications were what you sent to college; and Skype, for most people, was a typo.â&#x20AC;?

- Thomas Friedman

Source: Thank You for Being Late, Thomas L. Friedman

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

International Trade

|

85

is hometo to aaglobal religionâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;now UtahUtah is home global religion more now international than US members more international than US members Utah is home to a global religion now Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints membership more of international than US members Church Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints membership

Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints membership 18,000,000 15,634,199

16,000,000 18,000,000 14,000,000 16,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 2,000,000 4,000,000 0 2,000,000

15,634,199

9,102,543 6,531,656 9,102,543 6,531,656

1980

0

1990 Total 1990

1980 Total

US

Sources: Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints

US

2000 International 2000

2015 2015

International

Sources: Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints

86

|

International Trade

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Over $1.6 billion in defense contracts and grants obligated in Utah in FY 2015 County shares of $1.6 B FY 15 defense contracts & grants

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Economic Strength and Diversity

|

87

Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s defense industry economic boot print Share of Utah defense sector total economic impacts by component, 2015

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

88

|

Economic Strength and Diversity

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s economy among the most diverse in the nation

most diverse in the nation Hachman Index of GDP diversity most diverse in the nation 2-digit NAICS, 2015 WA 87.0 WA 87.0 OR 73.4

CA 93.8

MT 79.7

OR 73.4

ID MT 79.7 79.7

ID 79.7

CA NV93.8 61.7

AK 31.7 AK 31.7

NV 61.7 UT 96.7

AZ 93.6

WY 28.2UT 96.7

CO 93.1 AZ 93.6 NM 64.3

ND 48.3

ND 48.3 WY 28.2 SD 62.1 CO NE 93.1 65.4 KS NM 91.5 64.3 OK 58.6

HI 71.9 HI 71.9

TX 73.2

VT 90.7

MN 94.2

ME 90.8

NH 93.0 SD WI MA MI 62.1 92.5 MN 89.8 86.7 NH 94.2 RI CT PA 93.0 88.0 WI IA NY NE MA MI 90.2 75.2 95.7 OH80.3 89.8 NJ 65.4 92.5 86.7 IN IL 93.3 RI 91.7 WV CT 88.0 MD IA 95.7 74.6 PA 90.2 54.0 VA 75.2 95.7 KS 86.7 MO OH NJ KY 88.8 91.5 IN IL 96.7 93.3 91.7 WV89.9 95.7 74.6 MD NC TN VA 54.0 86.7 90.4 MOOK

96.7 58.6

AR TX 88.0 73.2 LA 68.5

VT 90.7

KY AR 89.9 88.0 TN MS 91.9 87.5

LA AL MS 68.5 87.5 91.0

ME 90.8NY 80.3

91.988.8 SC NC 90.7 AL 90.4 GA 91.0 95.9 SC 90.7

GA 95.9

FL 91.2 < 50.0 FL 91.2

< 50.0 50.0 - 75.0 75.1 - 90.0

50.0 - 75.0 > 90.0 75.1 - 90.0 > 90.0

Note: An index value of 100 means that the distribution of state GDP among industries is exactly like that of the nation.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Note: An index value of 100 means that the distribution of state GDP among industries is exactly like that of the nation.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Economic Strength and Diversity

|

89

Select Delta Air Lines routes Delta Air Lines U.S. and Canada Routes

Whitehorse

Fort St. John

Terrace

Yellowknife Ft. McMurray

Grande Prairie

Prince George

Edmonton

Comox

Kamloops

Nanaimo Victoria

Vancouver Abbotsford

Calgary/Banff

Kelowna

Saskatoon

Deer Lake St. John’s, NL

Penticton

Bellingham

CANA DA

Seattle/Tacoma Wenatchee

ALASKA

Portland

Fairbanks

CANADA Eugene

Spokane Regina

Pasco/Richland Kalispell Yakima /Kennewick Pullman Great Falls Walla Missoula Walla Lewiston Redmond/Bend Helena Butte

Winnipeg Charlottetown Williston

Minot

Bozeman

Anchorage

Medford

Billings West Yellowstone Cody

Boise

Sun Valley Idaho Falls Twin Falls Jackson Hole Pocatello

Juneau Sitka Ketchikan

Elko

Santa Rosa

San Francisco

Reno/Tahoe Sacramento Oakland

San Jose

Eagle/Vail/Beaver Creek

Santa Barbara Burbank Ontario

Los Angeles

Long Beach

Rapid City

Hayden/Steamboat Springs Cedar City

Grand Junction

St. George

Pacific Ocean

Gillette

Salt Lake City

Mammoth Lakes Fresno/Yosemite

Montrose/ Telluride

Las Vegas

Denver Aspen/ Snowmass Colorado Springs

Palm Springs Orange County

San Diego

Bemidji

Bismarck

Casper

Fargo

Albuquerque

Tulsa

Tucson

Lihue

Dallas/ Ft. Worth (DFW) Dallas Love Field (DAL) Killeen/Ft. Hood

Kahului

Honolulu

Delta Air Lines/Delta Connection/ Delta Joint Venture Route

Maui

Hilo

Kona

Hawaii

Pacific Ocean

San Antonio

Future Route Service

Monroe Shreveport

Houston (IAH, HOU)

Jackson

Greensboro/High Point/Winston-Salem Raleigh/Durham New Bern Jacksonville/Camp Lejeune Fayetteville/Ft. Bragg

Knoxville Asheville

Huntsville/ Decatur

Charlotte Greenville/ Chattanooga Spartanburg

Birmingham

Columbia

Atlanta

Augusta

Columbus/Ft. Benning Montgomery

Lafayette

Baton Rouge

Mobile

Valdosta Tallahassee Panama City

Pensacola

Gulfport/Biloxi New Orleans Destin/ Gainesville Ft. Walton Beach Tampa/St. Petersburg

Destination served by one of Delta’s Worldwide Codeshare Partners

Sarasota/Bradenton

MEXI CO

Harlingen/ South Padre Island

Ft. Myers/Naples

Gulf of Mexico

Wilmington Myrtle Beach

Atlantic Ocean

Charleston

Savannah

Dothan Albany Alexandria

Destination served by Delta/Delta Connection

Effective November 2016. Select routes are seasonal. Some future services subject to government approval. Service may be operated by one of Delta’s codeshare partner airlines or one of Delta’s Connection Carriers. Flights are subject to change without notice.

Montreal

Tri-Cities

Nashville Memphis

Columbus/ Starkville/ West Point

Austin

New Route Starting this Month

H AWA I I

Fayetteville/ Northwest Arkansas

Little Rock

Oahu

Fredericton Halifax

Sault Ste. Marie

Marquette

Duluth

Ft. Smith

Oklahoma City

El Paso/ Ciudad Juárez

Québec

Chisholm/ Hibbing

Brainerd

Sydney

Moncton Thunder Bay

Bangor Ottawa Rhinelander Iron Mountain Pellston/Mackinac Island Escanaba Aberdeen Portland Burlington Minneapolis/ Alpena Traverse Wausau Green Bay City St. Paul Manchester Toronto Appleton/ Albany Boston Syracuse Midland/ Fox Cities Rochester Grand Saginaw La Crosse Rochester Hartford/ Rapids London Ithaca Sioux Falls Springfield Milwaukee Martha’s Vineyard Buffalo/ Elmira/ Flint Binghamton Niagara Falls Corning Nantucket Madison Kalamazoo/ Lansing Newburgh Providence Cedar Rapids/ Battle Creek Iowa City Wilk es-Barre/ White Plains Detroit Erie Scranton Cleveland (JFK, LGA) New York South Bend Chicago Omaha State Allentown (ORD, MDW) Akron/Canton College Newark Des Moines Peoria Philadelphia Moline/ Pittsburgh Bloomington Ft. Wayne Harrisburg Quad Lincoln Columbus Cities Baltimore Dayton Washington, D.C. (DCA, IAD) Indianapolis Kansas City Cincinnati Charlottesville Charleston St. Louis Richmond Louisville Lexington Newport News/Williamsburg Evansville Wichita Springfield/ Norfolk/Virginia Beach Roanoke Branson

Phoenix/Scottsdale

Kauai

International Falls

Grand Forks

Brunswick Jacksonville Daytona Beach Orlando Melbourne West Palm Beach Ft. Lauderdale/ Hollywood Miami

BAHAMAS

Key West

Source: Delta Air Lines

90

|

Economic Strength and Diversity

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Salt Lake City possesses outstanding rail connectivity

Union Pacific Rail Network

Seattle Spokane Portland

Eastport

Duluth

Hinkle

Eugene

Minneapolis/St. Paul Milwaukee

Pocatello Ogden Roseville Oakland San Francisco

Chicago Cheyenne

North Platte

Salt Lake City

Reno Stockton

Omaha

Des Moines

T opeka

Denver

St. Louis

Kansas City

Fresno

Wichita Las Vegas

Oklahoma City Los Angeles Long Beach

Colton

Amarillo

Phoenix

Calexico

Memphis Little Rock

Lubbock Tucson

Pine Bluff Texarkana Dallas Shreveport

Ft.Worth

El Paso Nogales

Livonia San Antonio

Eagle Pass

New Orleans Houston

Laredo Brownsville

Source: Reproduced based on official route map of Union Pacific

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Economic Strength and Diversity

|

91

The Utah economy mirrors the nationâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s

US and Utah GDP by Industry US and Utah byGDP, Industry PercentGDP of total 2015

US and Utah GDP by industry Percent of total GDP, 2015

Percent of total GDP, 2015

Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting Mining Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting Utilities Mining Construction Utilities Durable goods manufacturing Construction Nondurable goods manufacturing Durable goods manufacturing Wholesale Nondurable goods manufacturingtrade WholesaleRetail tradetrade warehousing Transportation and Retail trade Information Transportation and warehousing Finance and insurance Information Real estate andand rental and leasing Finance insurance Professional, scientific, and technical services Real estate and rental and leasing Management of companies and enterprises Professional, scientific, and technical services Administrativeofand waste management services Management companies and enterprises Educational services Administrative and waste management services Health care and social assistance Educational services Arts, entertainment, and recreation Health care and social assistance Accommodation and food services Arts, entertainment, and recreation Other services, except government Accommodation and food services Government Other services, except government Government

0.0% 0.0%

Utah UtahUnited States United States 5.0% 5.0%

10.0% 10.0%

15.0% 15.0%

Source: Kem Source: Kem

92

|

Economic Strength and Diversity

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

With good data and information come better decisions Leadership truisms

Informed Decisions

1. Leadership is an activity, not a position.

2. Anyone can lead, anytime, anywhere.

3. It starts with you and must engage others.

4. Your purpose must be clear.

5. Itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s risky.

Source: Kansas Leadership Center

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Shedding Light

|

93

Progress often requires a person to get out of their comfort zone

e h t e r e Wh appen s H c i g a M Your t Comfoer Zon Source: Herminia Ibarra

94

|

Shedding Light

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

If we enhance our ability to adapt even slightly it can make a significant difference

Rate of change

Learning faster and growing smarter We are here

Human adaptability

Technology

Time

Source: Thank You For Being Late, Thomas L. Friedman

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Shedding Light

|

95

With good data and information come better decisions With good data and information come better decisions

Probability of making a good decision

Informed Decisions

Good data and information

96

|

Shedding Light

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Staff and Advisors Leadership Team Natalie Gochnour, Director Jennifer Robinson, Associate Director James A. Wood, Ivory-Boyer Senior Fellow Dianne Meppen, Director of Survey Research Pamela S. Perlich, Director of Demographic Research Juliette Tennert, Director of Economics and Public Policy Faculty Advisors Matt Burbank, Political Science Department Adam Meirowitz, Finance Department Senior Advisors Jonathan Ball, Office of the Legislative Fiscal Analyst Gary Cornia, Marriott School of Business Dan Griffiths, Tanner LLC Roger Hendrix, Hendrix Consulting Joel Kotkin, Chapman University Darin Mellott, CBRE Derek Miller, World Trade Center Utah Bud Scruggs, Cynosure Group

Staff Samantha Ball, Research Associate DJ Benway, Research Analyst Anna Bergevin, Research Associate Cathy Chambless, Senior Research Associate John C. Downen, Senior Research Analyst Ken Embley, Senior Research Associate Emily Harris, Demographic Analyst Michael T. Hogue, Senior Research Statistician Mike Hollingshaus, Demographer Shelley Kruger, Accounting and Finance Manager Colleen Larson, Administrative Manager Jennifer Leaver, Research Analyst David LeBaron, Research Associate Sara McCormick, Senior Research Associate Levi Pace, Research Analyst Nicholas Thiriot, Communications Specialist Effie Johnson Van Noy, Utah State Data Center Coordinator Natalie Young, Research Analyst

KEM C. GARDNER POLICY INSTITUTE ADVISORY BOARD

S A LT L A K E C H A M B E R EXECUTIVE BOARD

Conveners Michael O. Leavitt Mitt Romney

Keith McMullin, Chair Lane Beattie Bruce Bingham Jake Boyer Terry H. Buckner Gérald Caussé Lori Chillingworth Cindy Crane John Dahlstrom Spencer P. Eccles Chris Gamvroulas Natalie Gochnour David R. Golden Val Hale Kay Hall

Board Scott Anderson, Co-Chair Gail Miller, Co-Chair Doug Anderson Deborah Bayle Lane Beattie Cynthia A. Berg Roger Boyer Ken Bullock Wilford Clyde Sophia M. DiCaro Lisa Eccles Spencer P. Eccles Matt Eyring Kem C. Gardner Christian Gardner Matthew S. Holland Clark Ivory Ron Jibson Mike S. Leavitt Vivian S. Lee

Kimberly Gardner Martin Ann Millner Cristina Ortega Jason Perry Taylor Randall Jill Remington Love Brad Rencher Josh Romney Charles W. Sorenson James Lee Sorenson Vicki Varela Ruth V. Watkins Ted Wilson Natalie Gochnour, Director Ex Officio Senator Orrin Hatch Governor Gary Herbert Speaker Greg Hughes Senate President Wayne Niederhauser Representative Brian King Senator Gene Davis Mayor Ben McAdams Mayor Jackie Biskupski

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

I

Thomas S. Monson Center 411 E. South Temple Street Salt Lake City, UT 84111 801-585-5618 gardner.utah.edu

I

I

AN INITIATIVE OF THE DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Victor Ingalls Patricia W. Jones Brent Low Molly Mazzolini Derek Miller Jim Olson Scott Parson Ray D. Pickup Vasilios Priskos Steven Starks Nigel Steward Craig Wagstaff Linda Wardell Bert R. Zimmerli