Bull & Bear 12/17 Cryptocurrency

Dear Readers, As the fall semester of 2017 kicked off, EBS Invest went through a lot of exciting changes. Ex-Presidents Tobias Holtmann and Lukas Schenker handed over the command to Lars Richter and Jose M. Rodriguez Azparren.

The EBS Invest student initiative is organized Departments, Research

in so

different besides

Department

the the

Corporate Relations, Marketing and IT Department had to be newly formed as well.

As the executive team sat together for the first time, we all shared one vision: Taking EBS Invest to the next level.

We started off with a presentation about financial statements and ratios for the roundabout 100 active ressort members. Since then the students started holding short pitches about stocks and even ETFs for the EBS capital investment fund on their own.

The Corporate Relations Department enabled the students to listen to 4 profound presentations about capital markets, securities, derivatives and investment philosophies, each 2-hour long. Afterwards the participants had to take a test in order to achieve the renowned “BVH Börsenführerschein”.

Meanwhile the Marketing Department has set up an Instagram account (which you obviously are highly recommended to follow) and started working on EBS Invest merchandise.

In early December BKB Steuerberatungsgesellschaft Wirtschaftprüfungsgesellschaft held a highly interesting presentation about risks managers have to deal with. We would like to emphasize our gratitude for this exclusive insight!

We, as editors, decided to revamp the newsletter and make it more nouveau and engaging. When it comes to the financial landscape, throughout this year, there has been one word that has been creating major impact, leaving people awestruck and compelling them to talk more about it and even think about investing in it. That word is no other than- Bitcoin.

Bitcoin has been the show stopper and newsmaker of this year. Hence, we have kept this year’s theme as Cryptocurrencies. Despite of their packed schedule, members of the research team went out of their way to come up with articles related to Cryptocurrencies. We are certain that anyone who is novice in this domain of fintech will gain a considerable understanding after going through our articles.

Three letters which heavily preoccupied us over the last months: BTC. The last weeks before our official editorial closing on 7th Dec 2017 Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies experienced a massive rally – All people talked about it, but does everyone understand

it? In order to bring everyone on the same level of comprehension we’ll illuminate the functionality, chances and risks of Bitcoin throughout the next pages.

Finally, we would like to thank this edition’s team. 16 awesome students with all kinds of backgrounds and knowledge made extraordinary effort doing research and writing articles for our first newsletter. Furthermore, we are thankful for EBS University providing us with the necessary educational environment.

This year also marks the first time that EBS Invest’s Research team have done an international collaboration. We would like to extend our sincere gratitude to Ms. Annisa Qurratu'Ain for lending her expertise in designing our cover page and our magazine’s new logo. Annisa is currently pursuing her Bachelor degree in Design Communication Visual from Paramadina University in Indonesia.

Gautam Kumar Head of Research Johan ten Doornkaat Koolman Head of Research

EBS Invest Research wishes everyone Happy Holidays!

DISCLAIMER: EBS INVEST AND BULL & BEAR ARE NOT AFFILIATED WITH ANY COMPANYS OR SECURITIES MENTIONED. FURHTERMORE, OUR ARTICLES SHOULD BE UNDERSTOOD AS FOOD FOR THOUGHT, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. WE DO NOT RECOMMEND SELLING OR BUYING ANY INVESTMENT MENTIONED AND DO NOT TAKE ANY LEGAL RESPONSIBILITY FOR CONCLUSIONS YOU MAY DERIVE FROM OPINIONS DISPLAYED IN BULL & BEAR.

Content I.

M&A Trends 2018 Despite the overall newsletter’s topic Gautam (1st from left) sheds some light on the future trends related to global market of Merge & Acquisitions.

II.

Cryptocurrencies Marc-Philippe (3rd from right), Ping (2nd from left) and Philippe (not in the picture) explain what Cryptocurrencies are and how they work in an understandable way.

III.

Success of Bitcoin Bitcoin-Bulls: The chances BTC might offer in the long run are reflected by Luca (6th from right), Jan-Raphael (3rd from left) and Dimitri (6th from left).

IV.

A Fool and His Money Giving a bearish view on the hyped Cryptocurrency Johan (1st from right), Pascal (4th from right), Benedikt (2nd from right) and Max (5th from left) doubt the sustainable value of Bitcoin.

V.

A Good Opportunity to Burn Your Money Finally, Chances and risks considering Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) are critically reflected by Jannis (5th from right), Adrian (4th from left), Justus and Tijen (both not in the picture).

M&A Trends 2018 Hello readers! The theme of this edition of

markets and even about the fascinating

Bull & Bear is Cryptocurrency and here you

world of hedge funds.

are reading the first article, and to your

Let’s get started with Germany, the M&A

surprise, this article pertains to the Mergers

market has been steady, however, we

& Acquisitions market. I am not trying to

observe

mislead you, but I am just following a

that

there

has

been

an

approximate downfall of 14.13% in number

tradition of Bull & Bear of including one

of deals and 34.22% in deal volume in 2017

market report. In the later editions, you will

as compared to the previous year.

get insights about equity & debt capital

When it comes to the global outlook, Deloitte’s 2018 M&A Trend report suggests that technology acquisition will be one of the most prominent drivers

of

M&A

pursuits.

In

their

study

approximately 12% of the respondents concurred that digital strategy will be the driving force behind M&A deals in 2018.

Another important aspect highlighted in this report is regarding divestiture, about 78% of the respondents were of the opinion that they would shed their business next year. 68% of corporate respondents

and

76%

of

private

equity

respondents anticipate that the deal volume in 2018

will

increase

gradually

and

will

be

considerably higher than that of 2017. Majority of respondents also said that their deals were working out.

More than 6 in 10 respondents (approximately 63%) say they now incorporate the use of nonspreadsheet-based M&A technology tools as part of their deal processes. The respondents cite a plethora of benefits. The use of these tools makes post-deal

integration

smoother

and

faster,

reduces costs and conflict, and shortens the time it takes to complete them.

Gautam Kumar

400 300 200

0

2017 (Dec.…

Number

2015

2013

2011

2009

2007

2005

2003

2001

1999

1997

1995

1993

100

Value of Transactions (in bil. EUR)

600 500

1991

Number of Transactions

Mergers & Acquisitions in Germany

3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0

Source: Thomson Financial, Institute for Mergers, Acquisitions and Alliances (IMAA) analysis

Majority of the previous M&A trends

trillion in 2017. In the US, deal making is set

reports

industry

to rebound in 2018 after a year of “wait and

convergence in the year ahead-mainly in

watch” following the election of President

related businesses or vertical integration.

Trump in November 2016.

have

suggested

Financial services, ranks high as an industry most likely to experience convergence, with 38% of industry professionals predicting the

sectors

of

private

equity,

asset

management, insurance, real estate, and banking and securities as likely to converge.

Life sciences and health care also rank high.

Energy-Construction, Manufacturing,

ConstructionRetail-Technology,

Telecommunications-Technology are the major pairs of industry that are likely to emerge as converging industries in the future.

Baker McKenzie forecast’s M&A to reach US$856 billion in 2018, then drop in line

More than 90 percent of respondents say

with

they will continue to engage in cross border

following years. On the Asian domain, the

transactions. However, dealmakers will be

Chinese

more selective. It is predicted that Canada

outbound

and the United Kingdom will continue to

M&A activity in 2017.

top the list of foreign targets for private equity

respondents

and

corporates

combined.

an

economic

slowdown

government’s investment

in

restrictions slowed

the on

regional

However, with the macroeconomic policy of China is more outward-looking and its policy agenda requires greater outbound

Global

investment. Therefore, the M&A activity is

Transactions Forecast 2018 suggest that

predicted to peak at US$754 billion in 2019.

total global M&A will rise to a peak of

In Middle East and Africa, the forecast is

US$3.2 trillion in 2018, up from US$2.6

around US$41 billion while in Latin America

Baker

McKenzie,

in

their

it is predicted to peak at US$134 billion in

Are you someone who is still struggling to

2019.

gain

In a nutshell, companies are sending strong signals that they intend to aim for bigger M&A targets in 2018. The dealmaking process will look dramatically different as

an

understanding

about

Cryptocurrencies? Fret not! Our next article will break down the definition and working mechanism of Cryptocurrency in a layman fashion.

innovations in diagnostic tools continue to develop.

By Gautam Kumar Head of Research

EBS INVEST TEAM Chairmen José María Rodríguez Azparren & Lars Richter

Heads of Corporate Relations

www.ebsinvest.com contact.ebsinvest@gmail.com

Ann-Kathrin Kopf & Maximilian Bechtold

Heads of Research

www.linkedin.com/ company/10509796 /

Johan ten Doornkaat & Gautam Kumar

www.facebook.com/ 100011763963626

Heads of Marketing Alexander Rauh & Theo Goldsmith

www.instagram.com/ ebs.invest

Head of IT Norajr Hakopov

Check us out!

Cryptocurrencies

With the recent reached milestone of

It was published in 2009 by the synonym

$15,000 for one Bitcoin more people than

“Satoshi Nakamoto”. Different from any

ever

the

other online payment method, such as

an

PayPal, Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies

understatement to say that most of them

do not need a third party taking part in the

have no idea what is going on at the

transactions between two individuals. They

moment.

are peer-to-peer electronic cash systems

before

are

Cryptocurrency.

Payment

talking

And

methods

it

have

about is

not

always

been

changing, when people first started forming societies they started trading with goods that were important for them. As time went by, special goods and other rare materials like gold, salt and shells were preferred as first

currencies.

They

were

called

“commodity money” because they had a value as materials themselves. In the late 19th and early 20th century it was replaced

which have a network of thousands of users as their functional base. PayPal had the goal to create a secure system for both, the buyer who could reclaim his money if something goes wrong during the deal, and the seller who wants to make sure he is not the victim of a fraud. To accomplish such a system, the third party needs to identify the other parties requiring private information from them.

by “representative money” which had an

Bitcoin

equivalent worth of gold guaranteed by the

decentralized

government, nowadays known as the gold

independent from the supervision of banks

standard, which was applied all over the

and

world. In modern times, fiat money,

pseudonymous and very hard to observe,

receiving

public

and it is comparable with a cash payment

acceptance, became the most popular form

between two persons. The security system

of money. As a backup in the case of a

used

weakening economy it usually has a

Cryptocurrencies is called blockchain. You

functional government and a state bank,

can compare it to a public visible ledger

but history has also proven otherwise.

which stores every transaction ever made

its

value

from

the

In the last few years another form of currency was created. The Cryptocurrencies.

The first and most common one, Bitcoin, wanted to revolutionize our payment system.

on

the

other network

governments.

in

Bitcoin

Its

and

hand

has

which users

many

a is are

other

after they get approved. About every ten minutes a new part, a block, calculated by “miners”, is added to the blockchain.

Without going too much into detail, they have to solve a mathematical problem while including the transactions. For every block

Marc-Philippe Leitzbach

Ping Wang

mined they get a reward consisting of a flat

compare it to a very volatile stock?

amount and always changing transaction

Or maybe even a good? The Chicago

fees every user has to pay if he wants to

Mercantile

Exchange,

a

move Bitcoins.

derivative

exchange,

just

If someone buys Cryptocurrencies, the most common way to store them is in a personal wallet that is secured with a private key and without it the wallet is worthless. The missing third entity that connects the individual and the wallet, encourages criminal acts because once the Bitcoins are transferred they are no longer in your control and there is no way to get them back.

But not all of the Cryptocurrencies have the same idea or rather the vision of being the payment method of the future. Ethereum, the second most popular one, for example uses the idea of the blockchain to create a platform for developers who then can create applications and publish them in the blockchain. Many other companies and banks are currently researching how they can use such a system to secure data and we will be confronted with it even more.

We still have to answer the most important question “What is Bitcoin?� Is it really a currency to change the future or can you

commodity recently

announced that they will have Bitcoin futures soon. Can you compare a solely digital thing to an old fashioned good like oil? At the moment, nobody can give a clear definition, and this could be everything or nothing. While Jamie Dimon, Co-CEO of JPMorgan, for example, once was quoted to fire everyone who trades with Bitcoins, others prognosticate a rise up to $500,000 US dollar for one Bitcoin in the next three years.

The future is uncertain, and most countries do

not

have

regulations

concerning

Cryptocurrencies or just started regulating them. China on the other hand already banned ICOs and some other related things concerning Cryptocurrencies. Governments are afraid that the anonymity can be used to undermine their regularities or support criminal acts like terrorism. They also rely on the honesty of the Bitcoin traders to pay the taxes. In the USA for example Bitcoins are officially treated similar to stocks for which you have to pay capital gain taxes and it is to assume that only a fraction of the traders follows the regularities. As more and more

companies accept Bitcoin as a payment it

And

might soon be treated equally to other

remember: If you see Bitcoin as a stock you

currencies, at least in the internet, the

might lose everything and also win

market volume will increase even further.

everything but if you invest because you

Governments are in a tight spot because

have the vision of a decentralized currency

they

the

and use it as such then your financial gains

anonymity or ban it completely which

are a bonus and no loss is big enough for

would limit its usage to the black market.

you to give up your dream.

either have to take

away

one

thing

you

should

always

Everything now depends on a few decisions that will shape our future.

By Marc-Philippe Leitzbach With the help of Philippe Braum Ping Wang

Success of Bitcoin

Luca Wombacher

Jan-Raphael Gritzmacher

Dimitri Pickel

The rumors and news about Bitcoin vary a

in a cloud and whatever gets changed, will

lot. Some say that the vast increase of

be visible for everyone else. This method is

Bitcoin’s price due to the rising demand

known as the Blockchain. The code of

creates a bubble which will explode sooner

Bitcoin is limited to a maximum output of

or later. Others say that the system behind

21 million units granting the safety of never

Bitcoin, the so-called Blockchain, has huge

being affected by inflation. This code

potential and the price of Bitcoin might

cannot be changed. Since Bitcoin’s price is

even reach $500,000.

purely driven by offer and demand, it keeps

It all started with less than $0.05 for one Bitcoin in 2009 and recently, it has increased to $15,000. In the year 2017 it increased by over 1,000%, because demand heavily exceeds supply of Bitcoins.

increasing every day. Almost every second day a new record is broken. The increasing demand might boost its price to even further heights in the future. Since Bitcoin transactions are independent of banks, no prime rates or monetary policies can

Bitcoin’s publicity keeps increasing and

influence

known investors as well as reserve banks

transactions or control what people are

accept it as a currency, private capital and

doing with their money.

accounting unit. Newspapers have been calling Bitcoin a great innovation with an inspiring development for years.

The

potential of it as a globally accepted currency expands every day while the price grows at a continuous rate.

its

price,

take

charges

for

Everyone can buy Bitcoins and create his own wallet. This can either be done by creating an account on websites, where you transfer money from your bank account into your wallet. Or you transfer your money at a cash machine, which will accept

Recent articles claim that the total limit of

your dollar or euro notes and save them to

21 million Bitcoins has not been reached

your Bitcoin wallet directly. Your wallet can

yet. Bitcoins are generated through a

easily be saved and managed on any

process called “mining”, which takes a lot of

computer or smartphone you like. Online

processing power. Every mining computer

payments or transactions in stores that

is connected through nodes that save a

accept Bitcoin are very safe and easy. Stores

copy of every transaction. You could

that accept Bitcoin are known to be

compare it to a spreadsheet which is stored

innovative, young and trendy. The only

thing you have to do in order to pay at the

In conclusion one has to admit that Bitcoins

checkout is to show your personal QR code,

and its system are a revolutionary way of

just like paying with a credit card.

handling transactions. Its massive potential

Within seconds, the desired number of Bitcoins can be transferred world-wide anonymously

without

any

taxes.

The

corresponding trade fees are either zero or less than one dollar. Because everyone carries around his smartphone all the time, he will always have money in his pocket, which is protected by fingerprint sensors, passcodes and face-recognition software.

This is way safer than carrying around a

can set new standards in our daily lives. Of course, there are always two sides of the story, but the positive weights out the negative by far, especially when everyone starts to trade with Cryptocurrencies and governments get to know them better.

Imagine the next generation getting their pocket money to their digital wallet and no one will ever worry about bacteria filled bank notes again.

purse with all your cards and dollar bills.

By Luca Wombacher With the help of Jan-Raphael Gritzmacher Dimitri Pickel

A Fool and His Money

In 1614 the Dutch merchant Roemer

understand the way Cryptocurrencies work

Visscher wrote “Een dwaes en zijn gelt zijn

have invested (so-called dumb money).

haest ghescheijden“ to describe a picture of

Moreover, Bitcoin is a substitute market for

tulips in a polemic collection of emblems.

Chinese investors leaving the unstable and

This roughly translates to “a fool and his

fraudulent Chinese real estate market.

money will be separated” and appropriately

Besides

describes the currently evolving Bitcoin

professionalism there comes a threat from

bubble.

big investors as well. According to experts,

This article will mainly be divided into the topics Regulation Risks and Monopoly Miners. Nonetheless the usual concerns about Bitcoin shall be mentioned at this point:

small

investors’

lack

of

Satoshi Nakamoto is supposed to possess roundabout 1 million Bitcoins and the Winklevoss-twins stated to have bought 100,000 Bitcoins in 2013. If the Bitcoinfounder, the twins or another big investor should decide to throw their Bitcoins on the

There are severe safety issues. Despite the

market, the created supply would massively

safety of the blockchain itself, Bitcoin

exceed the demand, sending the price to

exchange markets are a delicate target for

ground level (and don’t forget which

hacking attacks. Moreover, Bitcoin itself has

psychological impact such an action would

weaknesses as well. For example, “Full

have).

Nodes” are essential for the whole Bitcoin system. They make sure transactions are executed according to the rules. But lack of financial compensation leads to a chronic absence of enough “Full Nodes”.

Regulation Risks Miners

are

automatically

driven

to

approach a break-even point where the Bitcoin price equals the marginal cost to

Bitcoins are no real currency, they are more

produce an additional Bitcoin. While data

like non-cash assets with no physical value,

mining equipment is becoming more and

therefore the value of Bitcoin is intrinsic,

more efficient, the fix costs per Bitcoin are

based mainly on the trust of users and

shrinking, attracting more people to mine,

investors. But how trustworthy is a currency

requiring more electricity. Nevertheless, the

if no one knows who “Satoshi Nakamoto”,

progress

the founder of Bitcoin, is? He published the

number of competitors does not lead to a

first

and

downscale of prices due to the difficult

communicated with the Bitcoin community

crafting mechanism. As a result, the traded

until the end of 2010. Then he vanished

value of Bitcoin rises, and the electricity

completely,

consumption increases dramatically.

Bitcoin-client

leaving

in

an

2009

unpleasant

aftertaste of uncertainty.

in

efficiency

and

increasing

According to Digiconomist, the Bitcoin

Another main risk usual for bubbles are the

network is going to require 32.36 TWh in

investors themselves: The Bitcoin price

2017. That is more than 159 countries in the

contains a massive amount of speculation,

world do consume per year. The raised

inflating the Bitcoin bubble day by day. Lots

wattage can be directly extrapolated into

of people who probably don’t even

increasing emissions. Motherboard for

Source: https://digiconomist.net/bitcoin-energy-consumption 07th Dec ‘17

example

leads

a

Bitcoin-

Description

Value

Bitcoin's current estimated annual electricity consumption* (TWh)

32.36

Annualized global mining revenues

$11,322,523,149

demand for a single Bitcoin

Annualized estimated global mining costs

$1,618,129,306

amounts up to eight to 13 tons

Country closest to Bitcoin in terms of electricity consumption

Serbia

Estimated electricity used over the previous day (KWh)

88,664,620

Implied Watts per GH/s

0.297

Total Network Hashrate in PH/s (1,000,000 GH/s)

12,551

Electricity consumed per transaction (KWh)

250.00

Number of U.S. households that could be powered by Bitcoin

2,996,536

Number of U.S. households powered for 1 day by the electricity consumed for a single transaction

8.45

two third of Chinese power is

Bitcoin's electricity consumption as a percentage of the world's electricity consumption

0.14%

gained in coal power stations.

(New) Annual carbon footprint (kt of CO2)

16,014

(New) Carbon footprint per transaction (kg of CO2)

123.73

manufactory in Mongolia that only derives electricity from coal power

stations.

The

power

of CO2 emissions. Hence, 24 to 40 tons of CO2 emissions per hour are produced for this purpose. A car would need approximately 200.000 km to create similar

amounts. The

majority of Bitcoin servers are located in China. Roundabout

However, this fact must not

necessarily prevail. Bitcoin is not yet

Additionally,

regulated

institution.

Bitcoins can easily be understood as

Analysts predict that regulatory changes for

careless tax reduction or even as intentional

Bitcoin trading and mining soon will be

tax evasion.

introduced by the Chinese government. For

challenges governments are eager to

example,

and

tackle. And once for instance the Chinese

from

government decides to do so, the Bitcoin

environmental issues this policy incentives

might drop significantly without anybody

would most likely be caused due to the

to being liable or covering the loss, in

immense lack of transparency when it

contrast to real currencies.

punishes

by

any

Russia

central

already

Bitcoin-usage.

forbids Apart

comes to customer/user identity and

wrong

way

of

handling

These circumstances are

money laundering.

Monopoly Miners

The shutdown of the German company

Mining gets more difficult by every day and

“Bitcoin24” shows the risk that dealing with Bitcoin brings along. Due to accusations of money laundering the trading and storage platform had to abort their business operations. Warrant arrest was issued,

demands increasing processing power.

Back in the beginning one could easily compute several Bitcoins a day using a personal computer. Nowadays the same process would take decades for usual

Servers were confiscated, and many victims

devices.

never got their money back.

Bitcoin is limited to 21 million coins and

Criminal potential emanating from Bitcoins

difficulty to create new coins is increasing.

is indeed remarkable and e.g. also a possibility networks

for to

criminals transfer

or

terroristic

payment

flows.

Transactions are executed through the miner’s processing actions. Miners do so because they are rewarded with newly

created Coins and a small transaction fee.

If too many miners leave the market,

Due to the increasing difficulty computing

remaining

miners

new blocks gets more and more expensive

monopoly

position,

for miners. Moreover, a mechanism called

decentralized and free original idea of

“Block-Halving” bisects the amount of

Bitcoin. Another problem is the so-called

Coins miners get from each computed

“Mining-Centralization”. China has built up

block every 4 years.

enormous

But what happens as soon as all possible 21 million coins are mined? Since the amount of coins is limited by code, there can’t be

would

get

into

contradicting

mining-capacities,

a the

providing

roundabout 2/3 of all mining activity. This obviously does not fit the idea of an international currency network.

mined any further coins. When miners can’t

Furthermore, the so called “Great Firewall of

get any more coins, they face a huge loss of

China” troubles the whole Bitcoin system.

profitability which might have several

The heavy regulation of the Chinese web

consequences. Transaction fees must be

results in Chinese population suffering from

increased drastically, which would make

worsening internet performance - the huge

Bitcoin

users.

influence of Chinese Miners therefore

Or even worse: If too many miners leave the

impacts the whole system’s performance.

market it would be nearly impossible to

Another urgent matter is the so-called

compute all Bitcoin transactions, resulting

threat of a 51% attack. In case someone

in inefficiency. Already now the so-called

who wants to harm the Bitcoin network is

scaling debate describes the fact that the

able to provide more than 50% of all mining

Bitcoin network is overloaded with the

capacity, he basically is able to change the

increasing

transactions.

system in his favor. Imagine you want to

Confirming transactions and packing them

smuggle a toxic block into the blockchain –

into blocks takes an increasing amount of

How would you get around the safety

time. If transferring Bitcoins gets way more

regulations? Easy: the more mining capacity

expensive and takes way more time, people

you provide, the bigger the probability that

will probably abandon the ‘currency’.

you are yourself the one confirming the

less

attractive

amount

of

for

harmful block.

Benedikt Kiefer

Max Opoczynski

Johan ten Doornkaat

Pascal Jäger

New Economy Nasdaq 100 4500

This way one could stop or even redirect

4000

transactions, which would be the end of

3500

Bitcoin. This threat is not even highly

3000

hypothetical: Already now the 4 biggest

2500

Jan 00

Jun 99

Nov 98

account when considering an investment

Apr 98

Finally, one should take these things in

500

Sep 97

1000

Feb 97

successful mining activity!

Jul 96

1500

Dez 95

mining pools make out over 60% of all

Mai 95

2000

into Bitcoin. There are serious safety issues, a speculation- and QE-driven price with a difficult investor structure, high probability

SF House Prices in $'000

of governmental interventions because of crime

900

or

terrorism

funding,

money

laundering or even environmental pollution

800

and a developing monopoly position for

700

certain miners. Therefore, just keep the

600

Dutch’s words in mind: Avoid being the

500

fool.

400

Jan 05

Jan 04

Jan 03

Jan 02

Jan 01

Jan 00

Jan 99

Jan 98

Jan 97

Jan 96

300

Head of Research

And Pascal Jäger

Bitcoin in USD 18001 16001 14001 12001 10001 8001 6001 4001 2001 1 10.04.2013

By Johan ten Doornkaat

10.04.2017

P.S.: Speaking of “Bitcoin Bubble” During the 24 hours this article was completed Bitcoin increased by 32% from $12,500 to $16,500

With the help of Max Opoczynski Benedikt Kiefer

A Good Opportunity to Burn Your Money?

Blockchain

company

have

the company, blockchain companies have

discovered initial coin offerings (ICOs) as an

started to use ICOs. The typical way for a

opportunity to raise early capital. The

startup is to produce a white paper that

Crypto-tokens offered in these sales (in

describes

exchange

technical

for

“venture

startups

capital”)

are

their

business

approach.

The

model white

and paper

intended to be a kind of flexible security.

includes details about the functions that the

Some tokens are similar to currencies,

tokens issued during the ICO will perform

others are more like securities, and others

and the process of token creation. It is

have properties that are entirely new. Each

important that the number of tokens

company’s technological vision calls for a

created is limited and that these limits are

token with unique properties and uses.

clearly mentioned. The simplest way is “Pre-

Failing to do so can put an otherwise

Mining” a fixed number tokens and then

excellent project at risk. Since the token is

never issuing tokens again. The tokens are

the investor’s security, it becomes obvious,

then offered for sale in an auction, and the

that the tokens properties have to be

proceeds are used to fund the project. As

thought through and can’t be standardized.

mentioned before, tokens will have very

In this article we will not analyze the nature of the blockchain and Cryptocurrency system themselves, but analyze and briefly discuss,

whether

ICOs

bring

great

opportunities to make a big killing or just one more game of hazards into the investors world.

To begin, lets discuss what initial coin offerings actually are. ICO describes the process of raising capital of Blockchain startups, planning to create and establish another

Cryptocurrency

based

on

blockchain or a token system. Instead of going to the expense of making an initial public offering (IPO) of stock or the trouble of convincing a venture capitalist to back

specific

and

depending

on

unique investors

characteristics, criteria,

the

startups affinity and creativity in general.

Hereby one of the biggest problems is to estimate the value of different tokens, since they are not standardized or regulated in any way.

Leading to one of the major problems when it comes up to ICOs: The Regulation. Initial coin offerings, comparable to orthodox funding, crowdfunding or venture capital, is completely

unregulated.

Thinking

this

further, we will notice, that the actual investors won’t get any real securities, except the tokens. Simplified: You will give your money into the ICO managers hand and might lose everything without any

security. This illustrates perfectly how

network externalities and this tends to

important the tokens are, not just for the

make for a winner-take-all environment.

potentially upcoming Cryptocurrency itself,

There will be winners and their impact is

but especially to convince investors to bring

likely to be huge.

capital. But if ICOs are evidently rated that risky, why is there such a booming “niche market”? Just giving a few numbers, about $250 million was raised through ICOs in 2016 which is a significant bit of the $1.4 billion

approximately

invested

in

blockchain startups in 2016 in total.

Looking for an adequate answer, we can

ICOs are a kind of wild west of crowd funding at the moment. The fact that ICOs allow small startups to raise a few million dollars quickly and with few transactions costs is a probably a good thing but also brings the risk of a quick growing bubble.

Investors should be on guard.

guardedly make a hypothesis, considering

If you are considering investing into ICOs,

the apparent Cryptocurrency hype and

even more detailed researches, finding

boom in general, and as second the actual

adequate

opportunity of landing a “lucky punch”,

knowledge about the world of Blockchains,

investing into a promising blockchain

Cryptocurrencies

startup

money.

needed. Deep research on the company’s

Nevertheless, one may conclude, that

business plan, business model and the

Cryptocurrencies are a game changing

managers

technology.

competence are key factors in terms of

without

losing

your

But still we are in a too early stage to figure out how to use and value it properly. Many startups are working in a variety of creative ways to bring applications to markets. Most of them will probably fail. Blockchain applications seem to exhibit significant

alternatives and

history,

and their

as

well

gapless impact

as

is

their

finding a potentially profitable investment.

Remember,

the

blockchain

and

Cryptocurrency markets are some of the most volatile markets existing. Meaning, be mindful about investing money in such hyped and trend dependent markets.

By Jannis Markgraf With the help of Adrian Scheffler Justus Wackenhut Tijen Demircan

Adrian Scheffler

Jannis Markgraf

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Thank you very much … … for reading our special edition about Cryptocurrencies! We hope it was as exciting to read as it was for us to create it in the first place.

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