Residential Property Prices in Victoria _August 2020

Data insights

Residential property prices in Victoria There have been many observations about the size and duration of the impact the coronavirus crisis is having on residential property prices. The uncertainty around the pandemic’s longevity and accompanying restrictions play a huge part in the confidence of consumers and performance of the real estate market.

Both Median Prices and the Residential Market Index (RMX) have a role to play in understanding the property market.

The latest quarterly median prices revealed that the market is still strong.

While there has been a small adjustment from the previous quarter, the market is in much better shape than it was in 2019 across all property types.

An important tool to help monitor current price trends is the RMX, updated weekly.

The RMX considers all properties (not just the ones sold) and gives weekly insight into real price movement over time, a more accurate and up to date reflection on current price trends.

How to read the RMX The current RMX reference period is 2016, equivalent to 100.0. This aligns property prices with the most recent ABS census data at the time of release.

Prices of housing in Victoria has been on a positive trajectory after the introduction of eased restrictions in mid-May The illustration shows weekly RMX values and highlights the timeline of tightening restrictions in Victoria (grey) and easing restrictions (blue). Data up to week ending 9 August 2020.

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100 JAN

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The price trend for residential homes in the past 12 months appears similar with the same period two years ago The illustration compares same week in previous years. Data up to week ending 9 August 2020.

2020/19

2019/18

2018/17

135

This means that the property price weighted average in 2016 was given a value of 100.0 and price movements over time are relative to this ‘base’ reference period. In simple terms, the current RMX value of 132.3 (9 August, 2020) means that on average, properties in Victoria today are worth 32.3 per cent more than they were in 2016.

Victorian price performance so far this year After the expected seasonal dip around January, the RMX recorded strong price growth across all residential homes. The incline began in February and peaked in mid-March, where the price index was heading into possible new record levels.

At the end of March, COVID-19 restrictions first came into effect. Around this time, the value of homes in Victoria started to gradually decline each week.

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132.3

130 125 120

118.4 118.3

115 110 Sep ‘19

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Jan ‘19

The trend began to change its course following the announcement of first stages of easing restrictions halfway through May. Note: The RMX usually dips in January and July when transaction volumes are typically lower.

The recent reintroduction of stage 4 restrictions for metro Melbourne and stage 3 restrictions for regional Victoria are causing concern over its impact on property value, the latest RMX result

Mar ‘20

May ‘20

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Sep ‘20

for the week ending 9 August (132.3) suggests prices continue to grow strong for the time being. Monitoring the RMX weekly can give some insight into the scale of impact it may have in the coming weeks.

The impact varies for different regions The latest quarterly median price for houses in regional Victoria showcases its stability, with prices up 0.1% from the previous quarter. Although units contribute a small portion of regional

Data insights Section head Private sales in Victoria recorded the highest median prices in history, for both house and unit House

years ago (2017/2018), during a high growth period in the property market.

For the past seven weeks, the RMX is at a historic high for the end of June to early August period. This can be attributed in part to seasonal dips around July which affect historic results due to low sales activity during the holiday season.

Unit

950k 800k 750k 700k

In Victoria, the price of homes for the past 10 months to August has continued to outperform its value for the same time last year. Despite the disruptions brought about by the pandemic, property prices remain resilient.

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Signs that prices of homes remain resilient

500k 450k 2016 Q1

2017 Q1

sales, the median price reached a new historical record of $339,000. The value of units has grown exceptionally, rising by 13.6%, the highest recorded quarterly increase.

Expectedly, prices of homes in the metropolitan region declined over the quarter. However, remains higher compared to previous years.

Private and auction market In Victoria, the value of privately sold homes reached a historical record in the latest quarterly median price release, where houses typically sold for $819,500 and units for $596,500. This is partially attributed to sales of high end homes which were earlier expected to go under the hammer, but were changed to private sale due to COVID-19 restrictions.

Auction sales are more common in metropolitan Melbourne than in regional Victoria. The price of homes sold through auction fell by about 2% over the quarter.

However, price levels are still stronger than last year, up 6.5% for houses to $1,005,000. The value of units sold by auction rose by 7.3Â per cent to $705,000.

House vs. unit A few weeks before COVID-19 restrictions, which started at the end of March, the House Index (132.6) and Unit Index (133.9) reached peak levels for the

2018 Q1

2019 Q1

2020 Q1

year. Compared to historic values, housing prices were at one of the highest points during this time. From this peak price level, the value of houses dropped by 6.6% to its lowest point (House Index of 123.9) during the time restrictions were in effect. The decline only lasted for six weeks before starting to recover from its lowest value.

The impact was deeper and longer for unit prices, which saw a continuous decline over nine weeks before seeing a turn-around. From its peak, the Unit Index fell 9.5% to its lowest point of 121.2.

The latest price index in the week ending 9 August revealed houses recovered remarkably well. The House Index stood at 132.4, among the highest levels historically.

Following eased restrictions the price trend for units had been on an incline, the re-introduction of tightened restrictions had disrupted its recovery for several weeks, however the Unit Index has recorded rises in value in the latest two consecutive weeks to 9Â August climbing to 128.7.

Overall, the price trend for homes in Victoria have been on an incline for more than two months. The RMX stood at 132.3 in the week ending 9 August, up 11.8% compared to same time last year, and 11.7% higher than two years ago.

On average, properties in Victoria today are worth 32.3 per cent more than they were in 2016, prices are currently at some of the strongest levels. Recent results indicate resilience of residential property prices, and the presence of serious buyers and sellers in a restricted real estate market.

Sales volume has remained lower than expected at this time of year, although sales have been increasing for three consecutive months to July, with 8,274 transactions for the month.

According to the REA Group, before the six-week restrictions were re-introduced, serious buyer activity in Victoria was at its highest level for the year. The demand index was at its peak (174.7) with many buyers close to making a purchase decision. However, the demand index has since fallen following tightened restrictions.

Historic comparison of prices

The recent announcement of tightened restrictions across the State may have an impact on property prices over the coming weeks, continue to monitor the RMX to understand the scale of impact.

For the majority of the past 12 months, the price performance for residential properties appears comparable with two

For more information, please visit reiv.com.au/rmx THE ESTATE AGENT – AUGUST 2020 | 27