SA OUTLOOK
AGRICULTURE
Futures of agricultural employment in SA 2035 Agricultural value chains are vital to the South African economy not just within the context of food security, but also to drive economic growth and employment.
The research services of the Institute for Futures Research (IFR) at Stellenbosch Business School were retained to explore the futures of work in the agricultural sector of South Africa. The scope of work included considering what the future of work in agriculture could look like, identifying the skills barrier that could prevent the absorption of workers into the agricultural sector in the future, and the areas where initiatives should be consid-
The President’s Economic Recovery Plan places a
ered to have the maximum impact in future.
great deal of emphasis on the agricultural sector
This comprehensive project, took place over 10
as it is a sector that performed relatively well de-
months. To ensure optimal output, and the robust-
spite the economic downturn that accompanied
ness of any scenarios produced, the IFR followed
the Covid-19 pandemic. Even before Covid, the
a detailed research process that incorporated wide
global movement towards a ‘just transition to a
consultation with stakeholders from various areas.
lower carbon economy created the expectation
These included government, industry, and inter-
that the economy of the future could be driven by
est groups. Industry involvement was especially
green sectors.
important as part of the process since the imple-
Within the South African context, a quarter of our country’s employment is derived from car-
mentation of any future strategy will require the commitment and buy-in of key industry players.
bon-intensive industries. Agriculture and tourism
To formulate a robust and multi-faceted fu-
are seen as the two primary sectors that could
tures perspective, the IFR employed a selection of
create employment as opportunities in carbon-in-
futures methodologies to analyse and crystallise
tensive sectors decline over time. This places
this problem, to construct alternative scenarios of
significant pressure on the agricultural sector and
agricultural employment for South Africa toward
it is important to understand the type and scope
2035.
of jobs that will be required by the sector as we
While the futures of employment in the agricul-
enter the fourth industrial revolution. To remain
tural sector remain a complex and multi-faceted
internationally competitive, the sector embraced
problem, the report provides some guidance on
technology, automation and big data to improve
how these issues can be addressed. There is little
efficiencies. This has a direct impact on the labour
time to waste, however, and the cooperation of all
market and the demand for skills.
role players will be vital.
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