Landslide Risk Mapping in Nunavut Communities
Martin Berry, Dustin Johnston-Jewell & Lauren Snowball MDes Candidates Strategic Foresight & Innovation OCAD University December 6, 2012
Table of Contents INTRODUCTION...............................................................................................................4 Climate Change & Landslide Risk Assessment........................................................4 Background..............................................................................................................4 Problem Statement...................................................................................................6 SOLUTION.......................................................................................................................7 Project Timeline .......................................................................................................7 Phase One: Training & Preparation ..........................................................................8 Phase Two: Research..............................................................................................10 Phase Three: Analysis.............................................................................................12 Phase Four: Reporting ...........................................................................................12 Prototype & Overall Summery................................................................................12 BUSINESS MODEL........................................................................................................13
Platform #1: Aboriginal Community as Customer............................................. 13 Platform #2: Government Organizations as Customer...................................... 14 Business Plan – Cost Structure......................................................................... 16 Contingency Plans............................................................................................. 20 SUCCESS CRITERIA.......................................................................................................21
Meeting Criteria for Success............................................................................. 21 CONCLUSION................................................................................................................23
Conclusion & Predicted Outcomes.................................................................... 23 References........................................................................................................ 24
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Introduction Climate Change & Landslide Risk Assessment Climate change poses significant risks to environments, communities and economies globally. Risks are varied depending on the manifestation and severity of the climate change effect and can threaten lives, damage property and public infrastructure, and disrupt economic activity and social systems. In Canada, the economic costs associated with climate change are expected to reach approximately $5 billion per year by 2020, according to the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy (Payton, 2011). Given the costs associated with disaster-related damage, as well as the social and environmental implications, obtaining more information regarding climate change effects and developing mitigation strategies is of high priority for several actors in this context. This includes affected populations and communities, governments, insurance companies, businesses, and non-profit and social sector organizations. While the social and environmental implications of climate change require mitigation strategies, the costs to governments and insurance companies to address disaster-related damage create the context for a viable intervention to address the needs of various stakeholders. This paper will propose a multi-phase project for landslide risk assessment mapping in communities in Nunavut, Canada. This location was selected as a key site for an innovative solution for several reasons. The Arctic region has been identified as particularly vulnerable to climate change effects, providing an opportunity for advanced understanding of those effects and potential adaptation and mitigation strategies
for governments, insurance companies, and/or other potential project funders. From a global perspective, Indigenous Peoples experience a range of effects related to climate change including impacts on “cultures, human and environmental health, human rights, wellbeing, traditional livelihoods, food systems and food sovereignty, local infrastructure, [and] economic viability” (Galloway McLean et al, 2009, p. 5). Assessing landslide risk in Nunavut communities will address human needs regarding safety, social stability, and cultural preservation, meeting the stated responsibility of the federal government of Canada to support “Aboriginal and northern peoples’ pursuit of healthy and sustainable communities by allowing communities to prepare for challenges created by a changing environment” (AANDC, 2012).
Background As mentioned previously, Canadian Northern Indigenous communities are disproportionately affected by climate change, necessitating recognition and action by governments to assess risks and mitigate negative consequences. The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) found that the effects of climate change were being felt first and more acutely in the Arctic and include a rapidly warming climate, increasing glacial melt and rising sea level, severe coastal erosion, thawing coastal permafrost, and decreased land stability and coastal flooding (2004). Not only is there a vital need to address these disproportionate impacts of climate change as they are experienced by Indigenous Peoples in polar regions, there is also an important opportunity to learn from their observations to inform larger mitigation and adaptation strategies (Galloway McLean, 2010).
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These larger trends and effects are evident in Inuit communities in Nunavut. A report by the Government of Nunavut, 2005, drawing on direct observation through interviews conducted in Nunavut communities, such as Pangnirtung and Iqaluit, identified several indicators of climate change, including abnormalities in snowfall, later formation and earlier break up of sea ice, increased weather variability, unstable ground and landslides (Government of Nunavut, 2005). At the federal level, Aboriginal Affairs and Northern Development Canada (AANDC) has acknowledged that “Aboriginal and northern communities are amongst the most vulnerable communities to climate change impacts in Canada” (AANDC, 2012). AANDC is working to address and mitigate these affects through their Climate Change Adaptation Program (CCAP), which grants funding for Aboriginal and northern-based projects addressing climate change risk and adaptation. This CCAP not only represents the potential for minimizing the economic cost of climate change, but also meeting the responsibilities of the federal government to support Inuit communities and culture under the Nunavut Land Claims Agreement (“the Agreement”). The Agreement was signed in May 1993, following negotiations that began in the 1970s, and is the largest land claims agreement between Indigenous Peoples and government in the world (Nunavut Tunngavik, 2004). The Agreement set out the creation of the Territory of Nunavut, included a cash settlement and ownership of 18 per cent of the land for Inuit claimants, and laid out responsibilities of the federal government, including respect and protection of Inuit values, traditional hunting rights, work to strengthen
language, culture and social policy, among others (Nunavut Tunngavik, 2004). The CCAP acknowledges the responsibility of the federal government to support northern communities, a factor strengthening the commitment to fund projects assessing risks and mitigating effects of climate change at the community level. Our proposed project centers on the collection of scientific and local knowledge regarding climate change to assess risk at the community level. Critically, this process will be participatory and will seek to integrate data collected through geographical surveying with community knowledge of the local environment and context for a holistic risk assessment picture. The reasons for this approach are two fold. First, a participatory approach to risk assessment increases community awareness of risk and enables adaptation and mitigation (Tran, Shaw, Chantry, & Norton, 2009; Cadag & Gaillard, 2012). Second, local knowledge of the social and physical environment constitutes a rich source of information that has been identified as essential for effective disaster risk assessment by academic studies and government (AANDC, 2012;Tran et al., 2009). In is in keep with the CCAP requirement that “communities be engaged throughout the duration of any project supported by the Program” (AANDC, 2012).
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Problem Statement How can we conduct landslide risk assessment in communities in Nunavut? The economic costs of climate change are expected to increase, and to do so at a faster rate as time goes on, presenting an enormous challenge for governments, businesses and communities alike. The National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy estimates that the costs of climate change for Canada in terms of prosperity, public health and the effects of extreme weather on coastal regions could start at around $5 billion per year in 2020 and increase to between $21 billion and $43 billion per year by 2050 (Payton, 2011). The need to understand the effects of climate change, monitor its progress, mitigate risk, and adapt to its affects are therefore a major concern currently for northern communities and are likely to become increasingly important. The proposed project will explore the problem: How can we assess landslide risk in communities in Nunavut? The project is framed on the experience of a community called Pangnirtung, or Pang for short, a hamlet of approximately 1,325 residents (Statistics Canada, 2006) located on Baffin Island in Nunavut, Canada. In June of 2008, a combination of heavy rainfall and accelerated snowmelt caused mass erosion and landslides, which critically damaged the two bridges spanning the Duval River as well as the access roads to the bridges (Aariak, 2009). This cut off the community from their water supply and other important infrastructure located on the opposite side of the river from most homes, and necessitated extensive emergency measures until the
bridge could be repaired (Aariak, 2009). This event cost the Nunavut government $500,000 initially and the federal government a final total of $5.4 million (Zarate, 2009). The occurrence of landslides and ground “sagging� are being observed by residents in areas that have not typically experienced land instability and are expected to increase in the future (Government of Nunavut, 2005; Cohen, 2005). The effects of climate change globally are likely to include an increase in temperatures and precipitation that effect permafrost stability and runoff yields (Lemmen, Warren, and Lacroix, 2007). As the permafrost is weakened by shorter winter seasons, warmer climate, snowmelt runoff, and increased precipitation, soil is eroded away, and earth becomes instable. As illustrated by the Pangnirtung example, the costs of an event affecting even a relatively small number of people can be considerable, leaving aside the social, environmental and cultural effects and disruptions that result over the long term. We propose a multi-phase, participatory data synthesis program for landslide risk assessment. To support the feasibility of the program, we will outline a multi-sided platform business model for the project and propose a workable cost structure. We will measure our proposed solution against the main barriers to, and success criteria for, an innovative intervention in this area.
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Solution MULTI-PHASE DATA SYNTHESIS SYSTEM FOR DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT
Project Timeline The project is split into four time frames. The first is the Pre-Project time frame (see Figure One). This time frame is 541 days long and begins with prototyping the 3D Model using a Strategic Foresight and Innovation graduate class at Ontario College of Art and Design on Dec. 6th 2012. The prototyping will evaluate the 3D mapping landslide risk assessment process, providing immediate feedback so that we can then incorporate this knowledge into the project design. Other important dates during the Pre-Project phase include June 1st 2013, and September 27th, 2013, which are the dates to contact the Arctic College with the proposed project and the deadline to apply for funds from the CCAP, respectively. April 1st 2014 would be the date that we would receive the funding for the project and, therefore, would be the date to contact the Nunavut Government Department of Environment and the community municipality where the project would be located. This would also be the date to order and arrange transport of the required equipment. This allows for a month for the equipment to be shipped. The main portion of the project is split into three phases. Each phase’s specific components are discussed below; here we give a brief overview of their individual timelines (see Figure One). Phase 1: Training and Preparation provides a twoweek window for the project director to be trained in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) practice at by the
Government of Nunavut Department of Environment. The project director would then have another two weeks in order to practice and perfect the GIS systems. This also includes passing on the knowledge to the two summer students. We anticipate that by teaching the summer students, the project director will perfect the GIS system. Two days are then allocated for travelling to the community from Iqaluit, at the end of June 2014. Phase 2: Research begins with the participatory mapping exercise on July 1st 2014, that includes a seven-day long period to collect community knowledge and map areas of possible study for landslide risk assessment. The second half of Phase Two is the data collection portion. During this time, the research team (project director and summer students) will go to the specific locations and take scientific observations. Phase 3: Analysis is a two-week period in which the research team analyzes the local observation data and the scientific data to make a final assessment of the landslide danger. At the very beginning of this phase, the team would fly back to Iqaluit. The final portion of the project is Phase 4: Reporting. This portion of the project gives the team a week to compile a report and send it out to the appropriate stakeholders (AANDC and the community assessed). The final week of the project, ending August 15th 2014 would be dedicated to retrieving project feedback from the AANDC and the community. The timeline has been structured around Nunavut’s summer, June through August, in order to take advantage of the warmer climate, and ease of transport and sample collection. BERRY, JOHNSTON-JEWELL & SNOWBALL | 7
Now we will discuss each phase’s specific components.
Phase One: Training & Preparation The initiative we are proposing would need to be adopted within the Arctic College framework in order to succeed. Given that the Arctic College is the only postsecondary academic institution in Nunavut, other than vocational training centers, the project would be directed and executed within the college’s framework. We have identified potential candidates we could approach to act as the project director: Jason Carpenter and Michelle McEwan, both of whom are instructors in the Arctic College’s Environmental Technology Program. Their expertise running research initiatives and fieldwork with Arctic College students in collaboration with researchers from other universities, as well as with local community members, make them the perfect candidates. The landslide risk assessment project could be integrated within the Environmental Technology Program or be a partnership initiative. Considering the activities required in completing the project, we will be providing paid fieldwork opportunities for students, and there is a strong case to be made for these activities to result in program credits. The participation of an Arctic College instructor as project director would be a paid position. However, the work would be restricted to the summer months and last for a term of approximately three months. If neither of these specific individuals were interested in filling the project director role, we would then search out a suitable substitute. The objective is to have the project director lead a team of two Arctic College students to Nunavut communities
during the summer. Once on location, the team would conduct a geographical survey in order to better understand the landslide risks of the local area. Once on location, the team would conduct a geographical survey in order to better understand the landslide risks of the local area. Technical data would be coupled with local observations to create a participatory map summarizing all available knowledge. The map would then become a tool enabling the field research team to communicate their observations to the local community. Once the Artic College team has finished their fieldwork, the community would be left with a more complete understanding of landslide risks in their area. Once the initiative has been accepted and a project director chosen, training and equipment purchasing are required. The Arctic College instructor would need to have some geophysical surveying training in order to lead the team on fieldwork expeditions. The Nunavut Government Department of Environment has an educational program offering training and professional improvement for educators in many environment-related topics. Our project director could acquire the needed expertise through this educational program at no cost to the project. We have identified GIS specialists working in the Nunavut territory that could be hired to train our project director if the Department of Environment educational programs did not meet the project criteria. One such specialist is Suzanne Etheridge, a Parks Geospatial Specialist for the Department of Environment. The instructor providing GIS training would be contacted in advance in order to provide advice on equipment purchasing. Equipment purchasing has been scheduled one month ahead of training in order to have the
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Project Timeline FIGURE ONE: TIMELINE ILLUSTRATION 30 APR 2014 02 APR 2014 01 APR 2014
27 SEP 2013
Prototype
01 JUN 2013
This stage is the longest due to certain deadlines which cannot be moved. The process of funding application takes over one year. Once the funding is acquired the project cannot move forward until the end of the Arctic College winter semester.
06 DEC 2012
PRE-PROJECT
541 DAYS 1 DAY
Contact Arctic College
1 DAY 1 DAY
Apply for Funds Receive Funding
1 DAY
Contact Department of Environment and Municipality
1 DAY
Buy and Transport Equipment
28 DAYS
Analysis Phase 4
Report Submission Feedback
73 DAYS 14 DAYS 14 DAYS 2 DAYS 7 DAYS 7 DAYS 15 DAYS 7 DAYS 7 DAYS
15 AUG 2014 08 AUG 2014
Phase 3
01 AUG 2014
Participatory Mapping Data Collection
15 JUL 2014
Phase 2
08 JUL 2014
Project Director trained in GIS Project Director practice GIS Transport to Community
01 JUL 2014 29 JUN 2014
Phase 1
15 JUN 2014
The training period would be significantly shortened during the second year and altogether eliminated eventually. With an experienced team, more communities could be visited in one summer. Two communities for the 2nd and 3rd years with three communities visited per summer for the remainder of the project.
01 JUN 2014
YEAR ONE - PILOT PROJECT ACTIVITIES
TIMELINE OF SUBSEQUENT YEARS YEAR
Cumulative amount of communities visited
2014
1
2015
3
2016
5
2017
8
2018
11
2019
14
2020
17
2021
20
2022
23
2023
26
BERRY, JOHNSTON-JEWELL & SNOWBALL | 9
equipment present during training sessions. The training would comprise operational knowledge of geographical surveying devices such as Ground Penetrating Radar and Time Domain Electromagnetic Sounding devices. These devices are used to gather data on soil and permafrost conditions. Along with the operation of these tools, knowledge on borehole management and Thermistor cable use will also be needed as part of the training. Finally, the project director would learn how to analyze the data with the help of computer software. With this training, the project director would be able to conduct a geographical survey and produce a landslide risk assessment. Two students of the Environmental Technology Program would become members of the research team to facilitate data collection, offer translation services when needed, help coordinate activities and write reports, and help with more practical challenges such as carrying the equipment.
Phase Two: Research The pilot year research activities would be conducted in Pangnirtung. In the second and third years the team would ideally visit two communities and would eventually conduct surveys in three communities each summer. We have selected Pangnirtung as the community for the pilot project for several reasons. The first is that Pangnirtung is one of the cheapest flights from Iqaluit, where our research team is located, freeing up more funds for the purchase of equipment in the first year of the project. Secondly, a geophysical survey of the local area has already been done in Pangnirtung, which would allow the team to compare their results
with those of a professional and seasoned team of surveyors. Similar findings would validate the team’s work and qualifications. If the team fails to provide conclusive findings from their survey, a second round of consultation with geophysical experts would be needed to make sure the project director is sufficiently trained in conducting valid surveying work and data interpretation. The validity of the project’s findings is crucial to justify financing for subsequent years. Thirdly, members of the Pangnirtung community have experience in participatory mapping projects, which should make the task easier on the inexperienced team for their pilot year (Laidler, Dialla & Joamie, 2008). Once the team has communicated their intentions with the community and established a timeline of their activities during their stay in the hamlet, the actual survey work can begin. The team begins with participatory 3D mapping (P3DM) sessions with various members of the community. The team has a week to work with the community to create the P3D map. Observational information provided by community members will be: hydrological information (water levels, ice behavior, year to year differentiation), geographical information (topography, slope degradation, landmark indicators), meteorological information, land use and travel routes in accordance to hunting, summer camps, and future construction sites. With this knowledge, the team will spend their second week collecting data with GIS surveying devices. Due to the nature of hunting and summer camping practiced by community members the two distinct activities might occur throughout the research team’s two week stay.
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FIGURE TWO: DEVELOPED SOLUTION
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Phase Three: Analysis
Phase Four: Reporting
It is important that the team communicate their activities and intentions in Inuktitut as well as in English so that all participants understand the goals and the conclusions of the project. In the case that the project director does not speak Inuktitut, the students from Arctic College should be able to provide translation services to avoid having to hire another member onto the team. The participatory mapping process should include the intensive involvement of the community and, although lead by the research team, the manner in which the information is displayed and represented on the map should be open to suggestion by the community members. Sufficient time needs to be reserved for a knowledge-sharing period while the team is in the community in order to insure the project findings are properly shared and understood amongst the community. The team will depart with knowledge from the participatory mapping sessions and data from the geophysical survey. During a two week period the team will analyze the data and communicate the results to the community representatives via email. The information would be added to the participatory map which would reside in the Visitor Center where other research project findings are kept. The resulting map would summarize the cumulative knowledge of geographical surveying and local observations. The research team would promote the dissemination of the results within the community but it would be up to local residents to accomplish this task. Meetings, pamphlets, radio shows and school educationals are all channels known to be successful in sharing findings amongst a community.
A report of the pilot project would need to be delivered to the AANDC in order to assure funding for subsequent years. Validation of the geophysical survey, comments and a general impression from the community involved as well as a reflection from the students and instructor would all be necessary in order to ensure project improvement. If the pilot project was found to be successful, a multi-year schedule of target communities would be developed and ranked.
Prototype and Overall Summery The proposed solution can be summarized as having four key stakeholders (Federal Government, Territorial Government, Arctic College Participants and Visited Community) and executed in four main stages (Funding, Training, Collaborative Research and Activities Report). In subsequent years, the training stage would be greatly reduced or completely unnecessary if the same project director was interested in continuing with the project. The project would run for nine years and would enable all Nunavut communities to assess the landslide risks of their local environment. Once the project team has visited a community, future observations conducted by community members would benefit from the resulting knowledge of the project. Informed local residents would have a greater chance of identifying early signs of landslide risks through daily observations. The Territory of Nunavut would have an active landslide risk assessment network throughout the whole of its communities by 2023.
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Business Model PLATFORM #1: ABORIGINAL COMMUNITY AS CUSTOMER
Customer Segment The customer segment for this platform would be centralized around the local communities for which the project is designed. As mentioned previously, target communities are all those of Nunavut, since they are all potentially at risk for landslides and permafrost degradation.
Value Proposition By supplying the project solution to the communities of Nunavut, the value proposition is primarily one of safety to property and physical being. Secondary factors are a part of the value proposition, despite not being a primary goal. These ancillary benefits are supportive to the fact that our solution is multi-faceted and includes elements of self-determination, participation, training, and cultural validation.
Customer Relationship As described in the solution section above, our project provides an element of co-creation of data, analysis, and resulting actions. The co-creation relationship is also important as it aids in the inclusion of the community and avoids having the project seen as invasive. Specifically, our project will build strong relationships with GIS technicians, teacher figures, community elders, and students.
Channels The informational dissemination, training, and general work of the project will be completed in schools and colleges. Specifically, the Nunavut Arctic College in Iqaluit will be a primary hub for communication, planning, and project implementation. On the local level, the communities will be reached through the individual municipalities.
Key Partners As most of the project work will be completed from the Arctic College, it is essential to project success that this organization be a key partner. Other key partners include GIS technicians, the Nunavut government, AANDC and municipalities.
Key Activities The key activities of the project are to train Nunavut academics and technicians in GIS usage and landslide assessment, collect the data in the community, analyze the data for possible landslide potential, and deliver the data and analysis to the proper bodies.
Key Resources Key resources will include GIS hardware and detecting instruments, GIS software, meeting and working locations/spaces, specialist technical knowledge on landslide detection, local knowledge on land and culture, and the labour and attention of aforementioned key partners.
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Cost Structure The majority of the cost structure is based off of fixed costs such as equipment costs, and variable costs, such as transportation and labour. The entire cost structure is analyzed more thoroughly in the business plan section below.
Revenue Stream The revenue stream to support the value proposition for the local communities would come from the AANDC, specifically through the CCAP, and would be a fixed monetary value of $200,000 per year for a three year project. The stream would rely on the compliance of the AANDC’s guidelines, which are discussed below in the business model.
PLATFORM #2: GOVERNMENT ORGANIZATIONS AS CUSTOMER
Customer Segment The federal government paid the bill for the landslide clean up and restoration after the 2008 incident in Pangnirtung, and therefore would have great interest in preventing similar events being as costly. With this in mind, we have chosen to target them as our customer segment. Within the federal government the AANDC a customer segment as this department is responsible for the CCAP, and therefore is targeted by our project.
Value Proposition To the federal government and the AANDC our project offers them a method to fulfill their mandated
responsibility to the communities of Northern Canada. Tied in with the responsibility to communities, the opportunity to package socially valuable topics such as arctic sovereignty, climate change, and aboriginal affairs, is available. Also, our project provides a method to prevent landslide damage and protect property development, which shields government investment in the Northern Communities by being proactive rather than reactive. Finally, our project will supply an evidence-based return on investment to demonstrate that not only is the government getting ‘bang for its buck’, but also that the project is producing positively impacting results. This is especially important for the long-term success of the project.
Customer Relationship The relationship that we hold with the governmental organizations is economic in nature in that we are receiving project support funding in return for data, proactive landslide planning, and positive action relating to socially valuable topics of interest.
Channels Our project will share its progress and success with the governmental organizations through annual reports. These reports will highlight exactly how the communities (and therefore the government) have benefited from the project.
Key Partners As the Arctic College is the central hub for the project, and the reporting/delivery channel for the annual reports, they play the role of key partner to
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FIGURE THREE: BUSINESS MODEL
REP ORTIN G TO GOV E RNM E NT P ROJ E C T F UNDING
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the government. Also, the Nunavut Department of the Environment would be a key partner as they provide training programs for various projects and would be a valuable educational resource.
Key Activities Primarily we need to ensure data collection, analysis, and delivery to the government in report form to support the value proposition.
Key Resources Similar to the first platform, the key resources are hardware and software, space, time, expertise and local knowledge. Succinctly, anything that is needed in order to write the annual report.
BUSINESS PLAN – COST STRUCTURE
Overview The primary source of funding for our project would be provided from the CCAP (Climate Change Adaptation Program). This program is designed to provide assistance in allowing Northern Communities to prepare for the challenges posed by climate change (AANDC, 2012). Finer details of the program can be found on the website cited in the reference list (http://www.aadncaandc.gc.ca/eng/1329159600200/1329159637028), however here we will note the key aspects.
Cost Structure
In order to be fiscally responsible, where possible we have erred on the side of financial conservatism, and if anything, have over-estimated our costs.
The costs associated with the government portion of the model are similar to those of the community portion of the model. Other additional minimal costs related to the delivery of the data and reporting to the government may be considered, however since this reporting will be completed virtually and at a distance over the Internet, these costs are trifling in comparison.
As noted in Table 1 in the Appendix, we have applied an inflation rate of 1.83% over five years on all figures to account for increasing costs. This figure was obtained from the Bank of Canada Inflation Calculator (http://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/related/inflationcalculator/) using the most recently available historical data between 2007 and 2012.
Revenue Stream
Income
There is no revenue stream towards the government’s portion of the business model. The revenue stream for the projects operations comes from the governmental organizations to the researchers.
The total amount of funding for the CCAP is $2.3 million dollars, and an applying project can receive up to $200,000 per year for a maximum of a three-year project. We have based our financial model (see Appendix 1) on receiving $200,000 in the first year of our project, as
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the primary setup fund. This funding would be our sole income source.
Expenses As briefly mentioned previously in the Business Platform sections, our expenses are formed by four main categories: labour, transportation, space, and equipment.
Labour Labour for the project includes the compensation of a GIS mapping technical specialist, as well as two student assistants from the Arctic College. According to the salary database website, Salary.com, on average GIS Technicians make $62,000 per year USD. Because our project would be completed only during the three summer months (as these would be the months that would see the highest activity of erosion and landslide probability) we would hire based on a three-month contract. Therefore the technician, our project director, would cost us approximately $20,666.67 per contract. The summer students would be placed on contract for three months as well. We have budgeted $3,000 per month for each student, for a total of $18,000. The summer student pay rate was based off of a number of factors and an objective to provide fair and worthwhile compensation. The factors that were taken into consideration included the median total family income ($62,680) in the territory of Nunavut in 2010 (StatsCan, 2010), the minimum wage of Nunavut ($11 per hour), and the educational level of the participating summer students. With this in mind, we concluded that minimum wage would be insufficient to recognize the value the summer students would represent to the project. Likewise the median income of $30.13 per hour was
deemed too high, and would send a mixed message for the student salary given that the project director would earn a similar amount. We then rounded off a mid-point between these figures, arriving at an hourly wage of $18.75 per hour, or $3,000 per month, per student.
Transportation Transportation was budgeted based on flying the three researchers (project director and two summer students) from Iqaluit to Pangnirtung. At the time of writing, the cost for a return flight was $546 CDN per person. In future years of the project with varying project locations and target communities, the transportation budget would need to be revised, as costs for flights vary significantly. In the future years of the project, the expense of flying to more costly locations would be compensated from savings realized from technical equipment (ground penetrating radar, boreholes augers, time-domain electromagnetic soundings) that could be used over multiple years, thereby reducing annual costs. Once in the communities, a budgeted amount of $200 has been designated for ground transport in and around the community, if necessary. Based on a survey of taxi prices in Iqaluit, which found that is cost $5 to go anywhere in the town, this amount is assumed to be reasonable. Additionally, due to the small size of the communities, walking will be suffcient in most cases.
Space The approximate cost of renting a space to host the various actors of the project twice a year at $300 per day was also estimated. The two meetings, for a total of $600 annually, would be used to initially launch the BERRY, JOHNSTON-JEWELL & SNOWBALL | 17
project, and then to follow up and focus on the feedback loops mentioned earlier. Currently we have factored in this cost to our financial structure, however we hope that we can leverage our future relationships with Arctic College and use a space in this facility, rather than renting one.
of $25,000 based on the fact each of the equipment systems needed costs approximately $10,000 new. We assume that we can purchase at least one piece of equipment, out of three, at a used price reducing a maximum potential cost of $31,000 to a conservative estimate of $25,000.
Also we will need to provide accommodations to the research team on their trip to the community. Based on of the price set out by the Auyuittuq Lodge in Pangnirtung of $239 CDN per person per night for the two-week period when the research team will be in the community.
We would like to note that the Thermistors could be borrowed from the Nunavut Permafrost Monitoring program, which already uses Thermistors in their work (Nunavut Climate Change Centre, n.d.). The equipment budgeting also includes the cost of a laptop computer for the project.
Equipment There are four technical equipment products that we will supply our research team in order to collect scientific data. These include, ground penetrating radar and timedomain electromagnetic sounding devices, borehole augurs, and Thermistor cables. We have budgeted $25,000 for the various technical products we would require. Determining the cost of the technical equipment has been very elusive. There are a multitude of factors that must be taken into account in order to structure the pricing of the equipment. Specifically, most of the equipment needed could be purchased used, however due to the specificity of the equipment, this relies heavily on the market at the time of purchase. Obviously purchasing the equipment used would save the project large sums of money. Case in point, a new ground penetrating radar system costs $10,000-$12,000, however a used model can be $2,000-$5,000, depending on usage, seller, and a multitude of other factors. Therefore equipment costs would be managed at the time of purchase. We defend our given budget
Feedback No plan or project is complete without a proper feedback cycle. This allows key actors to alter various portions of the project to ensure that the project does not perpetuate any inefficiencies or issues. Basically the feedback allows one to keep what works, and change or discard what doesn’t. For our project, the feedback is twofold. Firstly, we would design feedback into the project through general meetings at both the start of the project and the end of the project time period. This would allow key players to gather, discuss and dissect the projects successes and shortcomings. This meeting would occur at the Arctic College and would involve the project director and the training staff that go to the communities. This would benefit the community as a customer segment, making certain that their evolving needs are being met. Secondly, following up with CCAP needs would also be required. This would occur after an appropriate amount of time post submission of the annual report. It is imperative to long-term project life
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FIGURE FOUR: BUDGET YEAR AANDC Carry over TOTAL INCOME
2013 200,000.00 200,000.00
2014 INCOME ($) 123,857.33 123,857.33
2015
2016
2017
71,778.76 71,778.76
18,747.14 18,747.14
(35,254.95) (35,254.95)
EXPENSES ($) Labour Project Director Summer Students Total Labour Transportation x3 Local transit Total Transporation Cost Space Meeting Hotel Total Space Cost Equipment Laptop Computer GPR Boreholes Thermistors Electromagnetic Soundings Total Equipment Cost TOTAL EXPENSES
NET TOTAL
20,666.67 18,000.00 38,666.67 546.00 1,638.00 200.00 1,838.00
21,044.87 18,329.40 39,374.27 555.99 1,667.98 203.66 1,871.64
21,429.99 18,664.83 40,094.82 566.17 1,698.50 207.39 1,905.89
21,822.16 19,006.39 40,828.55 576.53 1,729.58 211.18 1,940.76
22,221.50 19,354.21 41,575.71 587.08 1,761.23 215.05 1,976.28
600.00 10,038.00 10,638.00
610.98 10,221.70 10,832.68
622.16 10,408.75 11,030.91
633.55 10,599.23 11,232.78
645.14 10,793.20 11,438.34
-
-
-
-
76,142.67
52,078.58
53,031.62
54,002.09
54,990.33
123,857.33
71,778.76
18,747.14
(35,254.95)
(90,245.29)
1,000.00 10,000.00 10,000.00 10,000.00 25,000.00
NOTES: 1. Inflation rate: 0.0183 2. Labour costs based off of three month summer work contract 3. Transportation cost based off of one return flight to Pangnirtung from Iqaluit for three people
4. Space based off of $300 (Nunavut Science Institute) per day two day rental for initiation and closing meetings 5. Equipment is assumed to amortize over 10 year period
that we identify and promote governmental satisfaction with the project. This is imperative to solidify a future funding source.
on their website, and therefore, should the funding be needed, the Nunavut Insurance Ltd. would need to be contacted at that time.
A proper feedback loop with the CCAP (or other funder(s)) will also act as an early warning system should funding discontinue from this primary source. If the funds should dry up it them becomes crucial that we have a contingency plan in place, both for further funding and for the project as a whole.
Strategic Contingency Plan
CONTINGENCY PLANS
Financial Contingency & Redundancy A possible contingency plan for funding would be form the Nunavut Trust. The Nunavut Trust is the primary organization mandated to invest the trust fund holdings of $1.1 billion compensation received from the Nunavut Land Claims Agreement (Nunavut Trust, 2012). The Nunavut Trust is required by its deed to disseminate its investment income on an annual basis to its beneficiaries. Should the CCAP funding cease, The Nunavut Trust may be a secondary funding option. Another potential funding option would be private insurance institutions in Nunavut that have vested interested in protecting against possible landslide insurance claims on property. For example, Nunavut Insurance Brokers, Ltd. is a licensed Insurance broker that provides insurance for homes, autos, ATVs, snowmobiles, life, travel, and business (Nunavut Insurance Ltd., 2012). There is no outlined program that displays funding options for a project such as ours
As for the future of the project, once all the communities have been assessed by approximately 2023, we propose that the project continue as a monitoring program. This would require significantly less resources, while it would ensure that the communities remain aware of the possible landslide risk. It would take approximately nine years for the project to reach all Nunavut communities (see Figure Four). Our long-term goal is to have a complete integration into the Arctic College, over the nine-year completion timeline. Ideally members of the program would continually evolve the project via the feedback cycles discussed here. Also, it would be best if our project could eventually be incorporated into the Atuliqtuq project. This program, set up by the Department of the Environment in the Government of Nunavut has three themes: building community capacity, gathering regional and local scientific knowledge and Inuit knowledge, and disseminating knowledge and best practices across Nunavut (Department of Environment, 2012). Obviously the parallels between our project and the Atuliqtuq program would make them ideal collaborations, and would provide an organizational amalgamation of various projects working towards similar objectives. We identify this as a future action due to the fact that our project is much more specific in its objective than those described in the Altuliqtuc program.
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Success Criteria MEETING CRITERIA FOR SUCCESS
Technological Expertise & Training
The proposed project meets the previously determined criteria for success. The criteria are listed below, along with an outline of how the project fulfills them.
The project should demonstrate reasonable access to the technological expertise and training needed to conduct risk assessment.
Government Buy-In
Basing the project in the Environmental Technology Program at the Arctic College builds community capacity and participatory approaches that are essential to meaningful risk assessment. However, the project requires a high level of technical expertise. To overcome this, the project proposes a partnership with the Nunavut Government’s Department of the Environment. The Department includes personnel with expertise in GIS as well as relevant equipment. The Department has a stated goal of supporting teachers, and offers training and professional improvement (Government of Nunavut, n.d.). Given this, the Department constitutes a reasonable partnership for the project and source of technological expertise and training.
The project should demonstrate reasonable access to funding from the federal government. The increasing urgency of climate change-related disaster risk assessment has been acknowledged by the government through the creation of the CCAP by AANDP. The CCAP provides funding to programs “assessing and developing management strategies to adapt to the impacts of a changing climate, undertaking risk and vulnerability assessments, and identifying appropriate actions required to reduce risks” including landslides (AANDC, 2012). The program has run for three years and continues to do so on an annual basis, with opportunities for multi-year funding. It has allocated $2.3 million for community projects, and up to $200,000 per project (AANDC, 2012). This constitutes a reasonable source of funding since the proposed project meets the criteria of the CCAP. These criteria include exploring the instance of extreme weather events, the impacts climate change, and conducting community vulnerability assessments.
Community Participation The project should incorporate meaningful community participation and local knowledge. Community participation is considered essential to effective disaster risk assessment (Tran et al., 2009). AANDC acknowledges the importance of this type of knowledge by making community participation a requirement for all programs seeking funding from the CCAP. The proposed project seeks to integrate local knowledge through participatory mapping, including information regarding historical flood levels, the location and vulnerability of key infrastructure and resources, and other knowledge that is gained from the BERRY, JOHNSTON-JEWELL & SNOWBALL | 21
close observation of a place over time. A focus group including a cross section of community members will work together to determine important risk factors and map them onto a scaled map of their community.
Back-Up Funding The project should identify other possible funding sources. In order to ensure the sustainability of the project in the event of the cancellation of the CCAP or some other factor that prevents government funding of the project, other potential funders have been identified. In particular, insurance companies and the Territory of Nunavut both have an incentive to support risk assessment since they may be responsible for footing the bill to repair damage. Supporting risk assessment and the emergency response capacity through community awareness can help mitigate damage and potentially save insurers large sums of money. Insurance companies, therefore, constitute a reasonable source of back-up funding for the project.
Actionable Results For Community: The project should provide meaningful results that community members can understand and act on. To be successful, the project must not only have a participatory process and incorporate valuable local knowledge, it must also provide analysis and results that
the community can act on. The participatory mapping will layer local knowledge of historical and other data on a scaled map using differently coloured paint, pushpins and yarn. This will create a visual representation of local knowledge layered with data collected through other means that is accessible and understandable to everyone. It will allow all members of the community to view key areas of vulnerability and key resources, enabling better emergency planning and response. Information, analysis and reports that result from the research will be shared with the community upon completion.
Measurable Results For Funder The project should include the provision of deliverables to project funder(s). An important part of the project is the analysis phase following the research and fieldwork phase in the community. The researchers will incorporate data using GIS and analyze findings to identify landslide risks in communities and particularly vulnerable areas. These deliverables will be submitted on a yearly basis, after each community is assessed. The reporting will incorporate an analysis that will meet the stakeholder (AANDC) needs regarding information and responsibility to climate change in the far North. The report will also provide direct community quotes and concerns, allowing the AANDC to have a holistic picture of landslide risk and its affect on the communities, as well as the communities feedback on the project.
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Conclusion CONCLUSION & PREDICTED OUTCOMES This paper has proposed and outlined a multi-phase, data synthesis program for landslide risk assessment. This solution proposes to solve the problem of a lack of climate change-related landslide risk assessment at the community level in Nunavut. Our project is unique in that it proposes to incorporate quantitative scientific data with scientifically relevant observations. We demonstrated the feasibility of the project through a multi-sided platform business model and a workable cost structure. We also measured the project against the criteria for success and determined that it met all criteria. The project is, therefore, feasible. The predicted outcomes of the project include benefits to several stakeholders. The federal government receives accurate data that incorporates local knowledge to better plan and support adaptation to climate change, a key priority for the north. The community receives the same data to support local adaptation and awareness, as well as emergency planning and safer infrastructure placement. The researchers conducting the data collection and analysis receive training, experience and reputation through the project. Overall, the project will increase awareness about a broad range of climate change effects among Nunavut communities and will build capacity within the territory to conduct risk assessment and support longterm resilience and adaptive capacity in the future.
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REFERENCES Aboriginal Affairs and Northern Development Canada (AANDC) (2012). CCAP Funding Application Information and Form. Retrieved from: http://www.aadnc-aandc. gc.ca/eng/1329159600200/1329159637028 The AANDC is a federal governmental department mandated to support Aboriginal people and Northerners in social and economic well-being, building healthy and sustainable communities, and building participation in political, social and economic development to the benefit of all Canadians. The CCAP is a program put forth by the AANDC to support Aboriginal and Northern communities for challenges created by a changing environment. The article highlights the requirements for a call for letters of interest for the program. ACIA (2004). Impacts of a warming arctic: Arctic climate impact assessment. Cambridge University Press. Retrieved from: http://www.acia.uaf.edu The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) was a project of the Arctic Council and International Arctic Science Committee to delineate the effects of climate change on the Arctic. This exectuitve summary of the ACIA shares key findings concisely, including that the effects of climate change are being felt first and more acutely in the Arctic. Other key findings include a rapidly warming climate, increasing glacial melt and rising sea level, as well as cultural and economic impacts on indigenous communities such as the decreased accuracy of traditional knowledge practices predicting weather and ensuring community safety. ACIA serves as a useful overarching resource for understanding the impacts of climate change in the north. Cadag, J.R. D., Gaillard, JC. (2012). Integrating knowledge and actions in disaster risk reduction: the contribution of participatory mapping. Area 44 (1), 100–109.
The authors of this article, researchers at the Université Paul Valéry-Montpellier III and the University of Auckland, respectively, evaluate the use of participatory threedimensional mapping (P3DM) as a method of disaster risk assessment. They do this by examining a case study of its use in Masantol, Phillippines. The authors provide a useful brief analysis of various participatory mapping methods and their strengths and disadvantages. They argue that P3DM overcomes the pitfalls that face other participatory risk assessment mapping methods, such as the high cost of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and the lack of scientific credibility of sketch or stone mapping. In contrast, it is argued, P3DM is low-cost, highly participatory, credible and useful to government and scientific communities, and effective at raising awareness regarding risk and supporting more effective mitigation measures at the community level. CBC News (2008, June 20). Pangnirtung flood damage extensive: Nunavut minister. CBC News. Retrieved from: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/ story/2008/06/20/flood.html This article by CBC News describes an event in 2008 in Pangnirtung, a community of about 1,300 people located 300 kilometers north of Iqualuit. The news piece describes how a landslide occured as a result of unusal weather and flash flooding. It outlines the damages caused and the impact on the community. It is a useful piece since it provides a real-time picture of the aftermath of a landslide event and how it was managed by community. Department of the Environment. (2012). Atuliqtuq: Action and Adaption: The Nunavut Climate Change Partnership. Retrieved from: http://env.gov.nu.ca/sites/ default/files/backgrounder_final.pdf The Atuliqtuq project is a partnership between the Nunavut Government, the Canadian Institute of Planners, Natural Resources Canada, and Indian and Northern Affairs
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Canada. The Action & Adaptation plan aims at developing climate change adaptation programs which promote community participation. This report describes the activities and goals of the initiative. Entzu Hsieh, P., Tchekhovski, A. and Mongeau, R. (2011). Collapse of permafrost and failure of bridges in the community of Pangnirtung, Nunavut. 14th Pan-American Conference on Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering: Geo-Innovation Addressing Global Challenges. Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Retrieved from: http://geoserver.ing.puc.cl/info/conferences/ PanAm2011/panam2011/pdfs/GEO11Paper406.pdf This report explains the causes of the landslide event which affected the Duval River in 2008. Pangnirtung, a Nunavut community on Baffin Island, having two bridges crossing the river at the time of the event was put in an emergency situation since both bridges were deemed unsafe after the landslide. The report goes into detail on the geophysical survey done in the area after the landslide event. The analysis of the survey is shared in depth as well as a conclusion on the state of the soil stability in the area. Galloway McLean, K., Ramos-Castillo, A., Gross, T; Johnston, S., Vierros, M., and Noa, R. (2009). Report of the Indigenous Peoples’ Global Summit on Climate Change: 20-24 April 2009, Anchorage, Alaska. United Nations University – Traditional Knowledge Initiative, Darwin, Australia. This document summarises the proceedings of the Indigenous Peoples’ Global Summit on Climate Change in Alaska in 2009. It includes the Anchorage Declaration produced by participants which outlines the multi-faceted impacts of climate change on Indigenous Peoples globally. It also shares information about how and why Indigenous Peoples are disproportionately affected by climate change and require support with adaptation and mitigation that
acknowledges them as Indigenous Peoples. Government of Nunavut (2005). Inuit Qaujimajatuqangit of climate change in Nunavut 2005: A sample of Inuit experiences of recent climate and environmental changes in Pangnirtung and Iqaluit, Nunavut. Retrieved from: http://www.gov.nu.ca/env/ sbe.pdf This report summarises interviews with community members in Iqaluit and Pangnirtung regarding their observations of the physical effects of climate change. It groups observations together and provides direct quotes from community members. This is extremely useful in that it communicates what knowledge a community might have regarding climate change and shares the observations that are often missing from data collected during risk assesments. Government of Nunavut (n.d.). Education Programs. Department of Environment. Retrieved from: http://env. gov.nu.ca/educationoutreac/educationforteachers This webpage outlines the various educational programs run by Department of Environment of the Territory of Nunavut. It is a useful overview that provides a picture of what services are normally or reasonably provided to teachers and students interested in broadening their knowledge regarding he environment and related topics. Laidler G.J., Dialla A. & Joamie E. 2008. Human geographies of sea ice: freeze/thaw processes around Pangnirtung, Nunavut. Polar Record 44, 335–361. This research studies the knowledge of sea ice processes known by the members of the Pangnirtung community of Nunavut. The area’s unique geography creates a large ice locked platform for many months of the year. Depending on the ice for travel, hunting and fishing, the community
BERRY, JOHNSTON-JEWELL & SNOWBALL | 25
has developed an extensive knowledge of the freeze and thaw cycles. Collaborative interviews helped the research team understand the intricate effects of winds, currents and other forces as understood by those who have observed and traveled the ice of the area all their lives. A compendium of the various Inuktitut terminologies of ice formations and actions was established and translated to English. Being the third paper in a series, the paper offers a comparative study of regional differences in these Inuktitut terms. Lemmen, D.S., Warren, F.J., and Lacroix, J. (2007). From impacts to adaptation: Canada in a changing climate. Natural Resources Canada. Retrieved from: http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/earth-sciences/climatechange/community-adaptation/assessments/568 The regional overview of the Canadian Northern region published by Natural Resources Canada is a comprehensive report of all aspects of the area. A brief description of the physiography defines eight different ecological regions within Northern Canada. A description of climate conditions, socioeconomic situations lived by the residents as well as a wildlife analysis are all part of this report. Finally a model of climate change in the area is presented. Nunavut Climate Change Centre (n.d.). Nunavut Permafrost Monitoring Network. Retrieved from: http:// www.climatechangenunavut.ca/en/project/nunavutpermafrost-monitoring-network The Nunavut Climate Change Center (NCCC) is a web based resource center developed by the Government of Nunavut’s Department of Environment that provides current information on climate change. The center is in collaboration with Natural Resources Canada and the Nunavut Research Institute to become more aware of climate change’s impact, and how to learn, engage, and adapt. Specifically, the Permafrost Monitoring Network
portion of the NCCC monitors 10 sites across Nunavut using bore hole techniques to 15m in depth. Currently the program is focused on measuring and monitoring permafrost conditions over time. Nunavut Insurance, Ltd. (2012). Home. Retrieved from: http://nunavutinsurance.ca/home The Nunavut Insurance Brokers Ltd. serves the people of the Northwest Territories, Yukon, and Nunavut. They are an independent Insurance Broker that offers insurance for home, auto, ATV/snowmobile, life, travel, and business. This is their company website. Nunaut Trust (n.d.). The trust fund. Retrieved from: http://www.nunavuttrust.ca/trust.htm The Nunavut Trust is the organization responsible for holding the assets gained by the people of Nunavut as a result of the 1993 Nunavut Land Claim Agreement. The Trust applies the land claim settlement of $1.1 billion to invest in the capital markets, and then uses the earnings to support the three Regional Inuit Associations and other programs and Inuit organizations. The Trust earnings are mandated to be used on programs that improve social, economic, developmental and cultural factors for the Inuit of Nunavut. This is the ‘about page’ from the Nunavut Trusts website. Nunavut Tunngavik (2004). Tukisittiarniqsaujumaviit: A Plain Language Guide to the Nunavut Land Claims Agreement. Retrieved from: http://www.tunngavik. com/documents/publications/2004-00-00-A-PlainLanguage-Guide-to-the-Nunavut-Land-ClaimsAgreement-English This document is a guide to the Nunavut Land Claims Agreement in plain language. The Land Claims Agreement was signed in the early 1990s and led to the creation of the Territory of Nunavut. It is a central document to understanding the cultural, social and economic
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realities of Nunavut. It lays out the benefits accorded to Inuit claimants and the responsibilities of the federal government. This document is an extremely useful guide that outlines each section in everyday language, rendering it easy to understand. Payton, L. (2011). Climate change could cost billions a year by 2020. CBC News. Retrieved from: http://www. cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2011/09/29/pol-ntreereport-climate-change-costs.html This news story outlines a report released by the National Roundtable on the Environment and Economy, which provided a breakdown of how much the effects of climate change would cost the Canadian economy. It included projections, showing that the pace of the amount would increase as the severity of climate change increases. The article also includes a snapshot of the discourse surrounding this issue. StatsCan. (2010). Median total income, by family type, province and territory. Statistics Canada, Government of Canada. Retrieved from: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/ tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/famil108a-eng. htm Statistics Canada is the Canadian federal government department responsible for collecting and aggregating census data on the Canadian population. On this page of their website is the table for median total income, by family type, by province and territory for all census families for 2006 through to 2010.
use of GIS as an effective risk mapping tool capable of incorporating local community-based knowledge. They do this by examining a case study of flood risk mapping in the Thua Thien Hue province of Viet Nam. The authors argue that local, community-based knowledge is crucial to disaster risk assessment more generally and that GIS is an effective tool for incorporating that knowledge. They highlight how extremely diverse sets of data such as historical flood levels, hydrology, site-specific data, and site with poor housing conditions, were integrated into an accessible visualization by the GIS. Usefully, the authors acknowledge the practical challenges with the use of GIS, namely the cost and the necessity for a basic level of technological expertise to operate it. They suggest partnerships to overcome these limitations, such as working with universities for access to technology, and work divisions, such as local data collection and regional analysis, that could facilitate more broad and successful application of the technology in other jurisdictions. Zarate, G. (2009, July 11). Feds pay for flood repairs in Pang. Northern News Service. Retrieved from: http://www.nnsl.com/frames/newspapers/2009-07/ jul13_09fr.html This news story outlines an announcement by the federal government to pay the full cost of the landslide and flood damage that occurred in Pangnirtung in 2008. The article is revelatory of the final high cost of a relatively minor landslide event - $5.4 million - as well as the priority placed on the region by the federal government.
Tran, P., Shaw, R., Chantry, G. & Norton, J. (2009). GIS and local knowledge in disaster management: a case study of flood risk mapping in Viet Nam. Disasters 33 (1), 152−169. The authors, researchers at Kyoto University and staff at the Development Workshop France, evaluate the
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