January 2014 Economic Update

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2.8 percent compared with one year prior. The quarterly growth reflected increases in all but three of the supersectors. The largest over-the-quarter rise was in natural resources and construction, which reported employment was 4.9 percent higher in the third quarter. The largest supersector by employment, professional and business services, reported growth of 1.9 percent during the period. Government (-2.9 percent), other services (-0.5 percent), and education and health services (-0.3 percent) were the three supersectors showing lower employment between the second and third quarters. Compared with the third quarter of 2012, only two supersectors showed a decline: employment in manufacturing fell 0.7 percent and other services employment was 0.2 percent lower. The largest over-the-year growth in the third quarter was reported in the natural resources and construction sector (7.1 percent) followed by professional and business services, which rose 4.9 percent. Employment throughout Colorado was 0.7 percent higher in the third quarter compared with the prior quarter and 2.4 percent above the year-ago level. The U.S. reported slower growth, with employment contracting by 0.1 percent between the second and third quarters and growing 1.7 percent compared with the third quarter of 2012. (Sources: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, Labor Market Information, Current Employment Statistics (CES); U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.) ♌ The first quarter 2014 results from the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey predict hiring will pick up in the Denver-Aurora-Broomfield MSA. The percent of companies hiring rose to 18 percent from 15 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013. However, the number was down 5 percentage points from yearago data. The percent of companies that plan to reduce their staffing levels fell 4 percentage points over-the-quarter to 3 percent. The level was also down from 8 percent one year prior. More companies plan to hold employee levels steady in the first quarter of 2014 (78 percent), up 1 percentage point from the fourth quarter of 2013 and 12 percentage points from the first quarter of 2013.

Hiring throughout the U.S. may slow slightly during the first quarter of 2014, according to survey results. The number of companies that plan to hire workers fell 1 percentage point over-the-quarter to 17 percent. The results were unchanged from year-ago results. Fewer companies also expect to lay off workers, with only 7 percent of companies responding that they will reduce their workforce, down from 8 percent in both the fourth quarter of 2013 and over-the-year. Like the Denver-Aurora-Broomfield MSA, more companies nationally plan to hold staffing levels constant: 73 percent of companies plan no change, up from 72 percent in the first and fourth quarters of 2013. (Source: Manpower Inc.)

Consumer Activity ♌ Consumer confidence dipped in the fourth quarter, falling 8.4 percent over-the-quarter to 74.2 for the U.S. index. Similarly, the Mountain Region index, which includes Colorado, fell 8.5 percent between the third and fourth quarters to 76.8. Despite the quarterly declines, both indexes reported improvement compared to year-ago levels. The U.S. Consumer Confidence index was 5.3 percent higher overthe-year, while the Mountain Region index was up 14.6 percent. (Source: The Conference Board.) ♌ Retail sales tax collections in Downtown were up 4.1 percent in the third quarter compared with the same period last year. Collections increased in 10 of the 17 industries, and increases were reported in the two largest industries by collections. The largest industry, restaurants, had retail sales tax col5


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