The Investor View Chelsea Q4 2015

Balham

Battersea

Hammersmith & Shepherd’s Bush

Battersea Park

Kensington

Chelsea

Notting Hill

Clapham

East Putney

Pimlico & Westminster

The Chelsea Q4 2015

Fulham

Gloucester Road

South Kensington

Southfields

West Putney

Introduction Anyone who owns a property in London is a property investor. Our lives and plans often depend on the performance of what is likely to be the largest asset we own. So perhaps it will be helpful to take more of an investor’s view of the market.

To produce this report we worked closely with D&G Asset Management, a company we co-founded in 2005. They deploy money into London residential property all the time, so they are constantly analysing different areas and the assets within those areas, seeking to maximise returns.

Property Values

As well as publicly available sources, we have used the proprietary data that we have been capturing since 1996 to help us make decisions and provide advice and guidance to our clients.

D&GAM has helped us focus on the data that counts and we think the results make fascinating reading.

If you would like to learn more about the Chelsea area, please do get in touch with one of our offices on Sloane Avenue. Contact details can be found on the back page.

In Q3 2015 buyers in Chelsea were very price sensitive In Q3 2015, capital values of flats in Chelsea were firm, continuing the slight increase since the start of the year. As we have witnessed since Q1 2015, the house market was softer. The trend of flats outperforming the house market was a common theme in Q3 throughout our Douglas & Gordon offices, both north and south of the river.

The market in Prime remains challenging IP roperty prices in the Prime market fall into three price brackets: up to £1m, £1m-£2m and £2m+.

IT he market up to £1m is moving but between £1m and £2m it tails off as prices rise. The top end of the market (£2m+) remains weighed down by increases in SDLT. IS ensibly priced, well-located and well-presented properties, requiring little or no work, are achieving a good level of interest. Poorly located properties in bad condition are taking longer to sell.

IO verall, the supply/demand balance is firmly tilted towards supply. There is plenty of property on the market but few buyers are willing to pay the prices that vendors are wanting to achieve.

What is happening in the background?

IA characteristic of the Prime market and something that we constantly refer to, is that many owners have large equity positions and are therefore discretionary sellers.

I I n Q3 last year, when market conditions were similar, we conducted a survey across our offices to gauge sellers sentiment. It showed that 70% of our vendors in Chelsea were either unwilling to drop their prices, or would only consider a small reduction of 5%. Our most recent survey suggests that this has not changed.

I I n addition, market feedback from Q3 suggests that there is a sophisticated pool of price sensitive buyers waiting in the wings. They are watching

Chelsea Nominal Property Values Q3 2015

YTD

Since Q2 2014

1 Bed Flats

0.81%

3.40%

-3.82%

2 Bed Flats

1.76%

3.31%

7.24%

3 Bed Houses

0.00%

-5.11%

-11.16%

4 Bed Houses

-0.66%

-3.60%

-7.81%

Source: D&G proprietary data

property prices closely and are ready to move when they see more competitively priced stock.

IW ith this standoff in mind, we have two observations: • Property prices in Prime London have historically been influenced by macro events, particularly global monetary policy. In Q3 2015, buyers were wrongly guided to expect higher interest rates. However, there is now a strong argument that future monetary policy may well underpin specific parts of the Prime market.

See page 4 for our outlook.

• Serious sellers should be realistic and understand that over-pricing denies the market the opportunity to work properly. It is important to set a price that will attract a number of buyers and allow market psychology to take over.

Sophisticated buyers are ready to move for competitively priced stock

For more information about D&GAM please go to www.dngam.com. This report is for general information purposes only.

The content is strictly copyright and reproduction of the whole or part of it in any form is prohibited without written permission from Douglas & Gordon. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, Douglas & Gordon accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from its use.

How an investor looks at the market Residential property investors use two key measures: the capital value of the property and its net rental yield.

infrastructure projects, demographics of the area, the economy (in particular, interest and tax rates) and the wider geopolitical picture.

You can make money from an increase in capital value and earn additional income by renting out a property you own. The net yield is the annual rent, less expenses, divided by the property’s capital value.

The interplay of these factors is what determines investment returns and what makes property investment decisions so interesting. We hope this report provides some help as you assess your options.

Both are important and are influenced by many factors including: supply of new properties,

In Q3 average rental values declined in the Chelsea house market In Q3 2015, average rental values across D&G Land rose by 0.3%. Prime offices averaged a growth of 0.9% and Emerging Prime offices produced a very small increase of 0.03%. Against this background, average rental values declined in Chelsea by 2.5%.

Corporate budgets are tightening I I n our last report we commented that the summer market for houses had got off to a good start. As Q3 2015 unfolded, pockets of weakness started to emerge. One reason for this is that domestic renters are becoming increasingly cash strapped.

Another reason is that Chelsea is one of our many offices that has recently experienced a decline in corporate budgets.

IO ver the past year, we have written about the trend of corporate tenants looking for better value in lower-priced areas. Our view is that the $1Tr global M&A deals that have taken place in the corporate sector in Q3 2015, signal that corporate accommodation budgets will come under further pressure.

Investors need to think ahead IF ewer corporates means that many landlords will need to invest in upgrading their properties to remain competitive.

Rental Growth & Yield

Chelsea Nominal Rental Growth Q3 2015

YTD

Since Q2 2014

1 Bed Flats

3.03%

3.03%

13.33%

2 Bed Flats

0.00%

0.00%

7.14%

3 Bed Houses

-8.00%

-11.54%

-4.17%

4 Bed Houses

-5.08%

0.00%

0.00%

Source: D&G proprietary data

Current Rental Gross Yields October 2015

1 Bed Flats

2.50% – 3.70%

2 Bed Flats

2.20% – 3.50%

3 Bed Houses

2.20% – 3.20%

4 Bed Houses

2.20% – 3.20%

10 Yr UK Gilt Yield

1.76%

FTSE All Sh Yield

3.60%

UK Base Rate

0.50%

IO n a brighter note for investors, rental values in the Chelsea flats market were firm in Q3, as indeed they were across D&G Land. One explanation for this is that the sales market has not, as yet, taken off and people are staying put in rented accommodation. Another reason and a further consequence of corporate belt tightening, is that companies are relocating a greater proportion of single employees.

Outlook

I I nvestors should not ignore the growing rental market in central London for wealthy overseas

I I n this low growth and low inflationary environment, we remain cautious on rental growth.

Source: D&G proprietary data

students. It is seasonal as per the academic year, but in recent years this group has increased the demand for studios and one bedroom flats.

“Bad” news for the global economy equates to “good” news for UK real estate assets?

I Capital flight from emerging market economies will pose a major threat to global growth (between 2010 and 2015, China was responsible for 50% of global growth)

Recent turmoil in emerging market economies has seen losses across indexes and major commodities during Q3 2015

-10%

S& -7 P .0 50 0 0 %

FT -7 SE .0 10 5% 0

Eu

-5%

ro FT -9 firs SE .2 t 0 30 % 0

0%

C -1 op 0. p 50 er %

I Central banks across the world remain worried by no inflation: In the USA: 2014 – 15 US median household income fell In the Eurozone: Inflation turned negative in September 2015 (notwithstanding E 500 billion + of asset purchases by the ECB this year) In Japan: The third quarter looks set to contract after the second quarter contracted 1.2% (notwithstanding $665 billion of asset purchases by BOJ over the last year)

Global economic backdrop to Q3 2015

N ik -1 ke 4. i 2 10 2 % 5

In Q3 the global economic backdrop to the London property market was challenging (see chart). Some commentators believe that the recent turmoil in emerging market economies is the third stage of the global financial crisis that began in 2008. The implications of this are:

-15%

-20%

B -2 ren 4 t .0 O 0 il %

Market context

-25%

tighten the monetary reins as a next step to support UK growth and return inflation to target.”*

A lone voice holding this view has been Andrew Haldane, Chief Economist at The Bank of England.

Since 2009 we have been arguing that the threat of deflation will overhang the global economy for many years and that there was no prospect of interest rate rises for years to come. We have also argued for the last two years that further QE and/or monetary loosening in the UK was likely, when others have been predicting rate rises and higher inflation.

On 18th September, the day after the FOMC kept US interest rates on hold, he said “In my view the balance of risks to UK growth and to UK inflation at the two year horizon is skewed squarely and significantly to the downside … there could be a need to loosen rather than

Continuing and stablising low borrowing rates will lead to a pick up in mortgage approvals and this will have greater effect on some parts of the UK housing market than others. * Speech to Portadown Chamber of Commerce 18th September 2015

I There will also be renewed threats to capital adequacy of US/UK/European major banks.

These global downside pressures will inevitably dampen UK growth, employment and inflation.

Chelsea key facts & figures

Nominal Capital Returns to Dec 2014

1 Bed Flats

Here are the key facts and figures anyone investing in the property market needs at their fingertips.

10 years 157%

-5%

53%

2 Bed Flats

-2%

33%

116%

3 Bed Houses

-4%

31%

138%

4 Bed Houses

-2%

32%

114%

2014

5 years

10 years

7.20%

16%

24%

2014

5 years

10 years

10%

10%

32%

Nationwide HPI*

7%

0%

36%

Halifax HPI*

3 Bed Houses

13%

30%

30%

FTSE100

4 Bed Houses

17%

40%

40%

RPI

2 Bed Flats

5 years

Other Assets Capital Returns to Dec 2014

Nominal Rental Income Growth to Dec 2014

1 Bed Flats

2014

7.80%

12%

16%

-2.70%

21%

36%

1.6%

18%

36%

*House Price Index

Our Chelsea Office

45 Sloane Avenue, London SW3 3DH Sales Edward McCulloch T 020 7225 1225 E emcculloch@dng.co.uk

Lettings Nicky Chambers T 020 7581 6666 E nchambers@dng.co.uk

To get an investor’s view of other areas in central, west and south-west London, visit douglasandgordon.com

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