Master Plan Update 17 Revised Final, 04102014

Master Plan Update 17

Enrollment-based analysis of construction needs (revised)

April 10, 2014         

A new enrollment forecast (Jan. 14, 2014) means that the Cleveland Metropolitan School District must make a 36 percent cut in its state-funded Facilities Master Plan (June 21, 2010) for remaining K-8 construction but can expand its high school plans. Page 4 The state, which pays for 68 percent of most CMSD construction, requires as a condition of co-funding that the District’s Master Plan conform to the latest enrollment forecast for the school year in which construction is expected to be completed, now 2018-19.

Two of the K-8 schools (800 total students) in the current, 2010 Plan have been closed, but the District still must cut school space for 3,006 more K-8 students. The District may add space for 801 high school students, plus 140 slots deleted from the new John Marshall High, for a total of 941. Page 5 The BAC’s enrollment-based analysis of each neighborhood’s needs has identified potential cuts of 2,700 in K-8 student capacity.

The BAC analysis indicates that remaining K-8 construction planned per the Master Plan of 2010 cannot be cut enough to meet the co-funding target while still fulfilling every neighborhood’s need for new or fully renovated school space, meaning that the District would have to spend unmatched local tax dollars to make up the difference.

The analysis of neighborhood-by-neighborhood K-8 capacity need is aimed not only at meeting the state’s co-funding maximum but also at avoiding waste of construction and maintenance tax dollars from building more than a neighborhood needs.

The BAC used the Master Plan of 2010 as the basis for suggested changes. Even though that Plan was never approved by the Board of Education, it is the document currently governing the CMSD construction program. Page 6 Cuts suggested by the BAC analysis are insufficient because 23 percent of the K-8 student capacity built so far is technically unused, yet that capacity still counts toward the district-wide co-funding limit set by the new enrollment forecast. Page 7 The primary cause of unused capacity is enrollment decline caused by rapid population loss and charter school growth that outpaced enrollment forecasts and adjustments by planners. Pages 8-10

1

 

To more quickly correct miscalculations and react to unforeseen demographic changes, thereby minimizing construction of K-8 space that will not be used as intended, the state’s occasional enrollment forecasts should be supplemented by annual assessments of whether actual enrollment is following the forecast. Page 10 Analysis of each neighborhood’s enrollment trend is important for properly focusing construction dollars, because the trends vary markedly across the District. Page 11

BAC analysis / suggestions summary for K-8 schools

2019 estimated enrollment range

Capacity provided Excess / (shortage) of capacity by 2010 Master Plan provided by 2010 Plan

Suggested changes to capacity provided by 2010 Plan

Collinwood

1970-2009

1783

(187-226)

none

East

2363-2366

3895

1529-1532

cut 900

East Tech

1533-1575

1705

130-172

cut 140

Glenville

505-542

2015

1473-1510

cut 450

Rhodes

16541677

1770

93-116

none

Adams

1089-1160

2370

1210-1281

cut 350

Kennedy

904-910

900

(4-10)

none

Marshall

4850-4965

5671

706-821

cut 860

Lincoln-West *

4092-4902

4043

(49)

add 350

South

1707-1745

2020

275-313

cut 350

Total suggested changes

cut 2700

*Lincoln-West recommendation accounts for specialized program at Thomas Jefferson not available to general student population, resulting in unused capacity in excess of 400 slots



The BAC analysis is based on straight-line projection until 2018-19 of the average annual enrollment change since 2008 in each of 10 K-8 neighborhoods and three high school regions as previously defined by the School District. The District is now using a 12“cluster” model.

2



   

    

The BAC analysis of changes needed in the co-funded Master Plan is based primarily on enrollment data because projected enrollment is the determinant of the state’s Master Plan co-funding maximums. School enrollment data and trends show where parents have chosen to send their children to school, thereby encompassing many other variables, including geographic accessibility, safety, academic offerings, competition from charter schools, etc. Page 12 The task of reducing the co-funded Master Plan is so difficult because there are fewer places left to cut. Only 19 K-8s are left to build in the current Master Plan, and 13 of those are in just three neighborhoods – Marshall, Rhodes and Lincoln-West -- where enrollment has declined by a relatively modest 16% to 21% since 2008. Page 13 After deciding which schools will be replaced or renovated with state co-funding, what is to be done with the numerous existing schools that are not part of the co-funded Master Plan? The District needs a larger, unofficial Master Plan for what to do with these schools and any additional schools it deems necessary – and how to pay for it. Page 13 Detailed analysis and charts for 10 K-8 neighborhoods. Pages 14-24 The state’s new enrollment forecast provides for 9,035 high school students. That would allow the District to add 941 slots to its remaining 2010 Plan, which calls for a new West Side High for 600 students and a new Glenville High for 912 students. However, the BAC’s analysis identifies a need to add about 1,350 to 2,150 new or fully renovated high school slots to the 2010 Plan. Page 25 The state’s enrollment forecasts, which set the co-funding limit, have consistently underestimated high school enrollment. Page 25 Whatever options are chosen for using the co-funded high school space, the District faces decisions on what to do with the numerous high schools that inevitably will be left out of the new Master Plan. Essentially, should they be minimally maintained and eventually closed, or should they be substantially or fully renovated or even replaced using only local tax dollars? Page 25 Detailed analysis and charts for three high school regions. Pages 26-28 Community participation is vitally important for a successful outcome of the Master Plan revision process, which will shape the final stages of the school construction and renovation program and determine how much more money the District will need to ask voters to approve. Page 29 The Master Plans of 2008 and 2010. Pages 30-31

3

New enrollment forecast The Cleveland Metropolitan School District’s construction program is guided by a Master Plan designed by the District with the Ohio Facilities Construction Commission, which pays for 68 percent of most Cleveland school construction costs.

Bond Accountability Commission reports on the Master Plan have long been based on the idea that the construction roadmap should be based on probable enrollment – that is, to avoid wasting the public’s money, the District should not build or renovate more school space than will be needed to accommodate the number of students it will have when the construction program concludes.

As a matter of policy, the OFCC agrees. That is why it has commissioned and released a consultant’s new forecast of how many students the District will have in 2018-19, which for now is the nominal year in which the construction program will end. That forecast, one of a series dating back to 2002, predicts that the District will have 32,443 students in 2018-19.

However, the District’s current Master Plan, a “draft” devised in 2010 to conform to a larger 2009 forecast, would provide school space for 35,639 students. Therefore, the OFCC will now require a reduction of 3,196 in the Master Plan’s student capacity as a condition for co-funding the remainder of the District’s program, now in Segments 5 and 6 of 10 planned segments. (Construction would conclude with Segment 9; Segment 10 consists entirely of demolitions.)

Available co-funded construction space under enrollment forecast for 2018-19 Built or under way, Segments 1-5 Segment 1 Segment 2 Segment 3 Segment 4 Segment 5 Totals

K-8 students 2437 3506 4101 4326 2251 16621

high school students 2967 1005 0 0 2610 6582

total students 5404 4511 4101 4326 4861 23203

OFCC consultant's draft forecast for 2018-19

23408

9035

32443

Available unbuilt co-funded space 6787

2453

9240

Currently planned co-funded space Master Plan of 2010 *

9793

1512

11305

Reduction of co-funded K-8 building plan Changes from 2010 Master Plan Further, the OFCC subdivides its co-funding allotment according to the number of students forecasted for grades K-8 and the number for grades 9-12. The latest forecast predicts more high school students than did the projection on which the 2010 Master Plan was based, but considerably fewer K-8 students.

Required * Allowed

cut 3006

cut 2065 add 941

* after cutting closed Giddings, deSauze K-8s

4

and the number for grades 9-12. The latest forecast predicts more high school students than did the projection on which the 2010 Master Plan was based, but considerably fewer K-8 students.

The upshot is that the District will have to reduce its 2010 building plan by the school space to accommodate about 3,806 K-8 students, about 36 percent of the remaining K-8 construction planned under the Master Plan of 2010. However, two of the schools in that Plan have been closed, presumably eliminating planned construction for a total of 800 students, which leaves the District with the task of reducing the Plan by space for 3,006 K-8 students. That is the equivalent of six to seven schools at the typical size, For high schools, the new enrollment forecast permits the District to expand on the 2010 Plan by 941 students. This would be in addition to the capacity of 1,512 currently planned for a West Side High (600 students) and Glenville High (912), which could be amended as well.

Elimination of schools from the Master Plan or reducing the planned size of schools in the co-funded Plan does not mean that the District cannot build that capacity into the system; it simply means that the state won’t help pay for it. The District may build whatever else it decides it can afford on its own. (This is likely to be the case with spending on high schools, discussed later in this report, and probably should be the case with K-8s as well to avoid cutting too much in a few neighborhoods that need the space.)

Also, it should be noted that although this report uses the Master Plan of 2010 as the basis of comparison for what the next plan should look like, the District may, if it desires, start from a blank slate in determining which schools it wants to include in future co-funded segments – as long as the total space built or fully renovated stays within the “Available unbuilt co-funded space” in the chart above.

Goal is to avoid waste Last March, the BAC’s independent enrollment-based analysis of each neighborhood’s school construction needs suggested cuts which, when combined with the two school closings by CMSD, would reduce the Master Plan’s K-8 capacity by about 2,850 K-8 students. Now, equipped with an additional year of District enrollment data, the BAC has conducted a new analysis to see where changes should be made, raising the previous net total K-8 cuts to 3,500, which is 306 short of the deletions needed to meet the OFCC’s co-funding limit. (See summary, Page 2; neighborhood-by-neighborhood details, Pages 14-24) The point is not simply to conform to the OFCC’s forecast, although that is required. Rather, the goal in comparing the Master Plan with the indications of enrollment trends is to avoid waste of taxpayer-financed bond sale proceeds that were authorized by voter approval of Issue 14 in May 2001 and those that may be authorized in future ballot issues.

Construction of a typical co-funded elementary school now costs $5 million to $6 million in bond-issue money, on which taxpayers pay off principal and interest for about 20 years. Therefore, building a new school too large or where it is not needed is very wasteful, especially because taxpayers also will pay for maintenance, security, heating and cooling at that building for decades.

It is therefore very important that construction be based on realistic, enrollment-based assessment of needs rather than expedience or wishful thinking.

5

Master Plan of 2010 The BAC analysis suggests changes to adapt the Master Plan of 2010 to the state’s new enrollment projections while meeting the needs of 10 neighborhoods as previously designated by the District. Downtown, which previously did not have an elementary school but does now, is not included in the analysis.

The District Administration has challenged the BAC’s use of the 2010 Plan as the analytical basis on grounds that the 2010 revision, unlike the Master Plan of 2008, was not approved by the Board of Education or by the Ohio School Facilities Commission.

While that is true, no formal approvals were required. What was required as a matter of OSFC policy was that, due to issuance of a new enrollment forecast in 2009, the Master Plan of 2008 had to be markedly reduced before the state would enter a Project Agreement with CMSD for Segment 6 of the construction program. The required revision was done by the CMSD and OSFC staffs.

The Segment 6 Project Agreement, approved by the Board in late 2010 and by the OSFC in early 2011, shows that the Master Plan of 2010, not the formally approved Master Plan of 2008, was the guiding document. (See both Master Plans, Pages 30-31 ) SEGMENT 6 2008 Master Plan A.G. Bell, new K-8 Case, renovate K-8 Giddings, new K-8 Gracemount, new K-8 Paul Revere, new K-8

Mt. Auburn, demo

Total

Enroll 350 375 450 450 450

0

2075

2010 Master Plan Buckeye-Woodland, new PK-8 Case, new PK-8 Empire (Glenville), new PK-8 A.B. Hart, demo Alexander Hamilton, demo A.J. Rickoff (old), demo Audubon, demo Brooklawn, demo Empire Computech, demo Gracemount, demo Henry W. Longfellow, demo Jesse Owens, demo John W. Raper, demo Joseph Landis, demo Louis Pasteur, demo Mount Auburn, demo Robert Fulton,demo Stephen E. Howe, demo

Enroll 450 450 450 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1350

Project Agreement Buckeye-Woodland, new PK-8 Case, new PK-8 Empire (Glenville), new PK-8 A.B. Hart, demo Alexander Hamilton, demo A.J. Rickoff (old), demo Audubon, demo Empire Computech, demo Gracemount, demo Henry W. Longfellow, demo Jesse Owens, demo John W. Raper, demo Joseph Landis, demo Louis Pasteur, demo Mount Auburn, demo Robert Fulton,demo Stephen E. Howe, demo

Enroll 450 450 450 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1350

2010 Plan changes to 2008 Master Plan 

Cut 14 K-8 schools



Added three K-8 schools



Changed capacities of schools



Cut one high school



Reduced district-wide K-12 capacity of cofunded new and fully renovated schools from 40,743 students to 35,639

6

Planning in an era of decline As noted, the BAC analysis of neighborhood needs falls 306 K-8 slots short of the Master Plan cuts needed to meet the state’s new co-funding limit. How could we apply an unforgiving data-based analysis to the remaining construction plan, leaving only the schools that are strictly justified by enrollment statistics, and still fail to achieve the total reductions that are needed to qualify for full OFCC co-funding?

The answer is simple.

Only 77 Rather, the primary culprits. percent of the K-8 school space built or renovated in Segments 1-5 is being occupied by students. The remaining 23 percent, though unused, still counts toward the District’s maximum co-funded allotment as determined by the latest enrollment forecast.

As we have warned numerous times, beginning with Master Plan Update 7 in June 2008, if only a finite amount of co-funded space is available district-wide, too much capacity in one neighborhood can only mean that another neighborhood will be underserved by state-matched construction dollars.

The under-use of new or fully Rather, the primary culprits. renovated schools is not simply a matter of over-building, although that certainly occurred in some cases.

18000 16000 14000 Segment 5

12000

Segment 4

10000

Segment 3

8000

Segment 2

6000

Segment 1

4000 2000 0 As-built student capacity

Enrolled now

Rather, the primary culprits have been rapid population loss and growth of charter schools. The state’s enrollment forecasts did not accurately predict the steep enrollment declines experienced by the District, and planners did not adequately adjust for the steeply declining enrollment trends, especially in some neighborhoods.

7

Population loss, ‘community schools.’ When the construction program began in 2002, the state authorized construction or renovation of 111 schools to accommodate 72,000 students. Since then, Cleveland’s population has fallen about 18 percent and “community schools” (public charter/non-public schools), have grown to enroll 18,575 of the District’s children.

Sixteen of the 33 schools built in Segments 1-5 are in the five neighborhoods hit hardest by enrollment loss. The schools built in Segment 2 are particularly underutilized – by 29 percent – led by Franklin D. Roosevelt, where enrollment has never been more than half of its capacity of 1,115.

Planning outpaced by events. Essentially, planners did not reduce building plans enough to account for the magnitude and speed of demographic changes that were occurring, especially in neighborhoods that have experienced steep population loss.

This was due in part to reliance on forecasts by the state’s consultant that repeatedly underestimated the size and pace of the changes and that have been issued only every two or three years.

For example, in August 2001, when the initial Master Plan was being devised, the state’s consultant predicted that the District would have 67,315 8

students in the 2010-11 academic year. In April 2004, as Segment 2 was getting under way, the state’s consultant reduced that estimate to 60,872 students. In fact, CMSD enrollment turned out to be 45,060 in 2010-11.

Meanwhile, the District built the four K-8 schools of Segment 1. It removed six schools from the Segment 2 plan, moving them to later segments or putting them “on hold.” However, four of those six were in the Rhodes, Marshall or Lincoln-West neighborhoods, where population decline has been more gradual, and the plan to renovate Franklin D. Roosevelt for 1,115 in the Glenville neighborhood was not changed.

It wasn’t until March 2006, as Segment 3 was being started, that the state’s consultant radically down-sized its CMSD enrollment projections, estimating that the 2010-11 district-wide total would be 45,291.

By then, the consultant was also projecting enrollment further into the future, estimating that enrollment in 2015-16, when the final segment was to have been completed, would be 40,743. The consultant now estimates the enrollment that year at 35,987.

Segments 3, 4 altered. After the consultant’s 2006 forecast, the District moved six schools from its Segment 3 plan or put them “on hold.” It also reduced the planned size of some Segment 3 schools. However, only half of those postponed or reduced schools were in the most rapidly declining neighborhoods, and the District then added a new Willson, which had been in Segment 2, for 574 students in the East neighborhood. Today, Willson has only 344 students; it has not had more than about 400 since it opened.

Overall, however, the Segment 3 reductions paid off. Current utilization of the Segment 3 space is 90 percent.

(Source: FutureThink Draft Report for Ohio Facilities Construction Commission (Jan. 14, 2014)

The District Administration also undertook a major overhaul of the Segment 4 plan, replacing most of the schools with others from later segments. One of the projects chosen to proceed was Thomas Jefferson, originally planned in 2002 as a “relief” school to relieve overcrowding on the West Side. The original Jefferson had been closed for years, and by the time of Segment 4, overcrowding was no longer an issue. Still, the school was built for 785 students. Its enrollment now is 364. The current utilization rate of Segment 4 schools is 78 percent.

9

Master Plan of 2008. When the Master Plan of 2008 was approved, based on the state’s 2006 forecast, the District planned to build 37 elementary schools in Segments 5-10. Those existing schools had a combined enrollment of 17,249 at the time, and they were planned to accommodate 17,070. Had the District’s enrollment been stable, this plan would have worked well. But District enrollment was not stable; it was falling, and the foreclosure crisis – with its cycle of eviction, neglect, vandalism, dereliction and demolition – was exploding. Since 2008, enrollment decline has ranged from 13.6 percent to 61.4 percent among the 10 neighborhoods.

The Master Plan of 2008 met the co-funding limits of the state’s enrollment forecast, but that forecast was two years old. Just a year later, in 2009, a new enrollment forecast caused the heavy cuts found in the Master Plan of 2010.

Segment 5. Construction of Segment 5 schools was authorized in November 2008 by the Board of Education, and architecture contracts were awarded. However, construction contracts were not awarded until 2012, delayed by deliberations over the District’s Academic Transformation Plan. In the meantime, as enrollment continued to fall, two K-8 schools were dropped from Segment 5.

Still, the utilization rate of Segment 5’s five remaining K-8 schools, four of which just opened this school year, is only about 68 percent.

During the period between Segment approval and the award of construction contracts, enrollment fell sharply at Orchard and Dunbar in the Lincoln-West neighborhood, from a combined 908 in 2008 to 551 in 2012, but capacities for the schools were not adjusted and they were built as planned – for a combined 900 students. They have 571 today.

The same holds true for the Marshall neighborhood’s Almira: It had 471 students in 2008, but only 311 when construction contracts were awarded in 2012 but it was built as planned for 450 students. It has 324 today.

It is a similar story for Miles in the Adams neighborhood. It had 416 students when it was planned in 2008 and 346 when construction contracts were awarded in 2012; yet it was built as planned, for 450 students. It has 263 now.

Learning from the past Reassess early, often. The conclusions from this part of the story are that the state’s occasional enrollment forecasts should be supplemented by annual assessments of whether actual enrollment is following the forecast in order to more quickly correct miscalculations and react to unforeseen demographic changes.

Further, in a far-flung district such as Cleveland’s, district-wide forecasts and resulting cuts in co-funded capacity are adequate for protecting the state’s monetary interests but are insufficient for informing the District’s decisions about where to build specific schools and how large to build them. So before planning each segment, the District should examine neighborhood enrollment patterns with an eye to how they can inform estimates of future needs. Building plans should be adjusted accordingly. And when a long delay occurs after planning a segment, the process should be repeated before construction contracts are awarded.

The experiences outlined above lie at the heart of the methodology chosen for the BAC’s analysis of school needs. The goal is to focus scarce resources – in this case tax proceeds and the state’s co-funding allotment – where they are needed the most, thereby stopping or minimizing construction of K-8 space that will not be used as intended.

10

Analysis by neighborhood. So, the analysis calculates the average annual rate of decline in each neighborhood’s enrollment since 2008 and extends that rate of decline through the next five years – to the nominal build-out year of 2018-19.

This leads to a calculation of what a given neighborhood’s enrollment is likely to be that year. The probable enrollment is then compared with the space that would be provided by the Master Plan of 2010. If the Plan would provide more space than needed, then cuts are suggested. If the Plan would provide less space than needed, additions are suggested.

The analysis looks at each neighborhood individually, rather than the district as a whole. The reason is that enrollment trends vary by neighborhood.

The OFCC enrollment forecasts are for the District as a whole; they do not specify what enrollment is expected to be in specific neighborhoods within Cleveland. And the OFCC technically does not care where within Cleveland the District plans to build as long as the new schools’ aggregate capacity does not exceed the district-wide enrollment forecast.

So it is possible to meet a co-funding target for a particular Master Plan revision while building too much capacity in some neighborhoods while seriously underserving others.

It is up to the District to decide where its new buildings should be

Neighborhood enrollment % change 2008-14 0.00% -10.00% -20.00% -30.00% -40.00% -50.00% -60.00%

Collinwood East East Tech Glenville Rhodes Adams Kennedy Marshall Lincoln-West South

-70.00%

and (subject to the OFCC minimum size of 350 students) how large they should be.

The BAC’s reports have always used and advocated a neighborhood-by-neighborhood approach to analyzing school needs based on enrollment trends. Here’s why: The OFCC’s consultant’s latest PreK-8 forecast for the build-out-year is 16.18 percent lower than the comparable figure from its 2009 study (on which the 2010 Master Plan was based). If it were physically possible (which it is

11

not), one could mathematically reach the new OFCC capacity limitation by simply reducing the planned construction in each neighborhood by 16.18 percent.

But such an approach clearly would be foolish if one considers, for example, that enrollment has declined by 41 percent over the last 16 years in the James Rhodes neighborhood but by 72 percent in the John Adams neighborhood. Shorter-term data – from January 2008 to January 2014 -- show similar variation: Following up on the previous example, the Rhodes neighborhood K-8 enrollment has declined 20.56 percent during that time, while the comparable Adams percentage is 40.38 Enrollment trends, like other demographics, have varied greatly among the School District’s neighborhoods over the years, and there is no basis for presuming that they will behave identically between now and 2018-19. This analysis presumes that the recent trend of each neighborhood will continue.

The next step for K-8 schools The BAC analysis of changes needed in the co-funded Master Plan is based primarily on enrollment data because projected enrollment is the determinant of the state’s Master Plan co-funding maximums. School enrollment data and trends show where parents 12

have chosen to send their children to school, thereby encompassing many other variables, including geographic accessibility, safety, academic offerings, competition from charter schools, etc.

The BAC found that the East, Glenville, Adams, and South neighborhoods currently are planned for more new or fully renovated space than they need now, let alone five years into the future, and that Marshall is planned for about what it needs now, not in 2019, despite a recent trend of significant enrollment loss.

The task of reducing the co-funded Master Plan is so difficult because there are fewer places left to cut. Only 19 K-8s are left to build in the current Master Plan, and 13 of those are in just three neighborhoods – Marshall, Rhodes and Lincoln-West -- where enrollment has declined by a relatively modest 16% to 21% since 2008.

Vision for accessibility, cost control. Whether or not the School District follows the BAC’s suggestions for how to trim the co-funded Master Plan, the Plan must be cut. Those decisions need to be made in the context of a larger vision of how to maintain or improve accessibility while controlling costs.

After deciding which schools will be replaced or renovated with state co-funding, what is to be done with the numerous existing schools that are not part of the co-funded Master Plan? The District needs a larger, unofficial Master Plan for what to do with these schools and how to pay for it. Some could be replaced or renovated – partially or completely – using only local tax dollars. Some could be simply maintained, if the District has a way to pay for it. Some could be closed and sold or demolished with state co-funding.

Geographic accessibility – safe walking routes, reasonable walking distances – is generally not addressed by the BAC analysis.

In areas where population density has decreased sharply, transportation solutions may provide the most economical way to make use of already built new-school capacity while minimizing capital and operational spending on more space – co-funded or not – that is or will be under-used.

Charter schools. Availability of high-performing charter schools could help the District decide whether to spend capital money on nearby CMSD schools. The BAC analysis did not consider availability of charter schools because the OFCC-funded Master Plan does not include them and because charters, unlike the School District, are not required to remain in operation.

Multi-neighborhood schools. The BAC’s analysis treats K-8 schools that have multi-neighborhood appeal, chiefly the boys and girls academies, as if they draw only from the academic neighborhood in which they are located. To the extent that they draw from other neighborhoods, the BAC’s suggestions should be regarded with that in mind. Currently, only one of the academies, Warner in the South neighborhood, is a Master Plan school. If Warner drew all of its students from outside South, it would not change the analysis’ suggestion for that neighborhood.

Growth areas. Finally, the vision for accessibility must include consideration of areas where population density has increased or is planned to increase because of housing development, including downtown, University Circle/Little Italy, Hough, Ohio City, Detroit-Shoreway. Planners need to assess how many of the residents of new developments are likely to have children that would attend a District school and whether the District has or could have schools to address such demand. (In the case of downtown, there is already proven demand for a high-quality CMSD elementary school – Campus International, currently in Cleveland State University’s Cole Center.) Then the question becomes whether to spend tax dollars in anticipation of demand or to wait for demand to develop.

13

By the numbers: Plan vs. need Methodology. This report therefore uses the average annual change in each neighborhood’s PreK-8 enrollment over the last six years to make a straight-line calculation of what the enrollment will likely be in the nominal build-out year of 2018-19. It then compares those estimates with the 2010 Master Plan’s provisions to see where the building plan for each of the 10 neighborhoods (as formerly defined by the District) should be reduced or increased. The same technique has been applied to the District’s three high school regions, though the results may be less instructive due to the districts’ size and by the city-wide draw of specialty schools.

How to read the charts: Third column – The Master Plan for each school. For example, if a school is to be demolished in Segment 6, the chart says D-6. If it is to be built new, it says N-6, or renovated, R-6. If it is not to be replaced or demolished, it says Keep.

Fourth-16th columns – The PreK-8 enrollment of each school, per CMSD, followed by the percentage change in each school’s enrollment over the specified period.

17th column – The capacity of a new or fully renovated school specified in the Master Plan.

Last column—The Master Plan capacity as a percentage of the current enrollment. The key percentage is in the row PreK-8 Totals. A percentage over 100 indicates that the Master Plan provides for more space than the current enrollment requires. If a particular school is listed for zero capacity, it is not planned for renovation or replacement.

Ave. annual survival factor: The average rate by which one year’s neighborhood enrollment has survived to the next year, based on CMSD data from 2008-2014.

Projected enrollment in 2018-19: The number produced by multiplying the February 2014 enrollment by the average annual survival factor for each of the five following years.

Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19: The difference between the neighborhood Master Plan capacity and the projected enrollment. A (negative) number indicates that the Master Plan would not provide enough space for the specified number of expected students; a positive number indicates that the Master Plan would provide space for the specified number of students that are not expected to exist.

Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted: The average rate by which one year’s neighborhood enrollment has survived to the next year, based on CMSD data from 2008-2014, except that the year of least change and the year of most change are omitted.

Projected enrollment, adjusted: The number produced by multiplying the February 2014 enrollment by the adjusted average annual survival factor for each of the five following years.

Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted: The difference between the neighborhood Master Plan capacity and the adjusted projected enrollment. A (negative) number indicates that the Master Plan would not provide enough space for the specified number of expected students; a positive number indicates that the Master Plan would provide excess space.

14

Collinwood

2010 Master Plan N-3 N-4 N-2 D-6 D-10

Jan. 2008 enroll 277 277 267 347 383

Feb. 2009 enroll 249 249 269 250 329

Feb. 2010 enroll 230 230 251 240 346

PreK-8 Address East Clark ES 885 East 146th St Euclid Park 17914 Euclid Ave. H. Gibbons 1401 Larchmont Rd H. Longfellow 650 East 140th St. Iowa Maple 12510 Maple Ave. Kenneth Clement 14311 Woodworth Keep 125 153 188 Memorial 410 East 152nd St. N-1 504 513 493 Oliver H. Perry 18400 Schenely Ave. ???

389 443 416 PreK-8 Totals 2569 2455 2394 Ave. annual survival factor Projected enrollment in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19 Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted

Jan. 2011 enroll 394 334 260 0 366

Jan. 2012 enroll 409 357 313 0 423

Feb. 2013 enroll 336 343 313 0 372

Jan. 2014 enroll 331 372 281 0 333

Jan. 2008 Feb. 2009 % change -10% -10% 1% -28% -14%

187 513 417 2471

194 506 333 2535

173 451 309 2297

180 447 273 2217

22% 2% 14% -4%

Feb. 2009 Feb. 2010 % change -8% -8% -7% -4% 5%

Feb. 2010 Jan. 2011 % change 71% 45% 4% -100% 6%

Jan. 2011 Jan. 2012 % change 4% 7% 20% NA 16%

Jan. 2012 Feb. 2013 % change -18% -4% 0% NA -12%

Feb. 2013Jan. 2014 % change -1% 8% -10% NA -10%

2010 Master Plan capacity 450 351 351 0 0

Master Plan % of Jan. 2014 enroll 136% 94% 125% NA 0%

23% -4% -6% -2%

-1% 4% 0% 3%

4% -1% -20% 3%

-11% -11% -7% -9%

4% -1% -12% -3%

0 631 0 1783

0% 141% 0% 80% 0.97669 1970 (187) 0.98046 2009 (226)

Collinwood: Likely enrollment is 187 to 226 students more than would be accommodated by the 2010 Master Plan. However, the minimum school size for co-funding is 350. Therefore, based only on enrollment, no changes to the Master Plan are needed.

However, the neighborhood is divided from east to west by Interstate 90 and a large railroad yard. Taking that into account, the northeast portion of the neighborhood has no new or fully renovated school in the Master Plan. An option would be to partially renovate O.H. Perry using only District money not matched by the OFCC. Change from 2010 Master Plan: 0.

15

East

2010 Master Plan D-10

Jan. 2008 enroll 392

Feb. 2009 enroll 403

PreK-8 Address Alexander G. Bell 11815 Larchmere BuckeyeWoodland 9511 Buckeye Rd. N-6 272 270 Case 4050 Superior Ave. N-6 536 447 Chas. Orr 9711 Lamont Ave. D-10 191 157 Daniel Morgan 8912 Morris Court N-2 481 438 Harvey Rice 2730 East 116th St. N-3 266 235 John Raper 1601 East 85th St. D-6 468 405 John D. Rockefeller 5901 Whittier Ave. D-10 250 246 Margaret Ireland 1800 East 63rd St. D-10 169 171 Mary Martin 8200 Brookline Ave. R-2 342 416 Mary Bethune 11815 Moulton R-2 361 348 Sunbeam 11731 Mt.Overlook D-10 244 210 Wade Park 7600 Wade Park N-3 242 194 Willson 1126 Ansel Rd. N-3 0 0 PreK-8 Totals 4214 3940 Ave. annual survival factor Projected enrollment in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) Master Plan slots, 2018-19 Ave. annual survival factor, without highest, lowest years Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 Adj. excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots, 2018-19,

Feb. 2010 enroll 371

Jan. 2011 enroll 0

Jan. 2012 enroll 0

Feb. 2013 enroll 0

Jan. 2014 enroll 0

Jan. 2008 Feb. 2009 % change 3%

Feb. 2009 Feb. 2010 % change -8%

Feb. 2010 Jan. 2011 % change -100%

Jan. 2011 Jan. 2012 % change NA

Jan. 2012 Feb. 2013 % change NA

Feb. 2013Jan. 2014 % change NA

2010 Master Plan capacity 0

Master Plan % of Jan. 2014 enroll NA

266 369 177 380 370 352

305 451 173 354 459 0

276 381 0 353 477 0

220 396 0 313 499 0

224 347 0 317 485 0

-1% -17% -18% -9% -12% -13%

-1% -17% 13% -13% 57% -13%

15% 22% -2% -7% 24% -100%

-10% -16% NA 0% 4% NA

-20% 4% NA -11% 5% NA

2% -12% NA 1% -3% NA

450 450 0 480 450 0

201% 130% NA 151% 93% NA

220 79 336 362 209 388 0 3879

0 57 316 388 256 396 393 3548

0 0 479 337 257 413 399 3372

0 0 443

0 0 407

348 251 379 380 3229

338 261 351 344 3074

-2% 1% 22% -4% -14% -20% NA -7%

-11% -54% -19% 4% 0% 100% NA -2%

-100% -28% -6% 7% 22% 2% NA -9%

NA -100% 52% -13% 0% 4% 2% -5%

NA NA -8% 3% -2% -8% -5% -4%

NA NA -8% -3% 4% -7% -9% -5%

0 0 490 500 0 501 574 3895

NA NA 120% 148% NA 143% 167% 127% 0.94902 2366 1529 0.94874 2363 1532

East: The 2010 Master Plan would provide space for about 1,530 more students than the neighborhood is likely to have in 2018-19. The neighborhood has only two more schools planned for replacement, Case and Buckeye-Woodland (both Segment 6), totaling planned capacity of 900. Geographic considerations aside, those two schools are not needed. Alternatives include partial renovation, without OFCC matching funds, of those schools and/or Sunbeam. Change from 2010 Master Plan: minus 900.

16

Jan. 2011 enroll

Jan. 2012 enroll

Feb. 2013 enroll

Jan. 2014 enroll

Jan. 2008 Feb. 2009 % change

0 0 0 0 547 532 484 366 426 435 447 346 496 443 326 0 369 369 336 436 390 396 399 499 0 0 201 189 328 307 292 284 538 530 506 533 550 543 523 586 3644 3555 3514 3239 * Giddings is in current Master Plan but was removed from analysis when District closed it.

0 377 533 0 394 417 214 0 499 494 2928

0 357 472 0 318 357 162 0 374 424 2464

383 341 373 0 312 318 171 0 366 0 2264

NA -3% 2% -11% 0% 2% NA -6% -1% -1% -2%

Address

2010 Master Plan

5393 Quincy Ave. 2955 East 71st St. , 2200 E. 55th St. , 3055 MLK, Jr. Dr. 9803 Quebec Ave. 2501 East 61st St. 2064 Stearns Rd. 2250 East 71st St. 3033 Central Ave. 2225 East 40th St.

D-10 N-4 N-4 D-6 D-10 ???

N-5 N-8 R-8 D-10

East Tech PreK-8 Alfred Benesch (Stokes) Anton Grdina George W. Carver Audubon Bolton Dike (CSA K-5) CSA (6-8) (@ Davis) Giddings * Marion Sterling Carl & Louis Stokes PreK-8 Totals

Jan. 2008 enroll

Feb. 2009 enroll

Feb. 2010 enroll

Feb. 2009 Feb. 2010 % change

Feb. 2010 Jan. 2011 % change

Jan. 2011 Jan. 2012 % change

Jan. 2012 Feb. 2013 % change

Feb. 2013Jan. 2014 % change

2010 Master Plan capacity *

Master Plan % of Jan. 2014 enroll

NA -9% 3% -26% -9% 1% NA -5% -5% -4% -1%

NA -24% -23% -100% 30% 25% NA -3% 5% 12% -8%

NA 3% 54% NA -10% -16% 13% -100% -6% -16% -10%

NA -5% -11% NA -19% -14% -24% NA -25% -14% -16%

NA -4% -21% NA -2% -11% 6% NA -2% -100% -8%

0 540 450 0 0 0 225 0 490 0 1705

NA 158% 121% NA NA NA NA NA 134% NA 75%

Ave. annual survival factor Projected enrollment in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 201819 Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted

0.92502 1533 172 0.93003 1575 130

East Tech: The 2010 Master Plan would provide space for about 130 to 172 more students than the neighborhood is likely to have in 2018-19. The only remaining planned project in the neighborhood is renovation of Marion Sterling for 490 students even though it has only 366. The obvious solution would be to replace, rather than renovate, Sterling for 350 students or to replace the nowclosed Stokes for 350 and eliminate Sterling. Benesch has received about $1.5 million in repairs and improvements since 2007.

Change from 2010 Master Plan: minus 140.

17

Feb. 2009 enroll

Feb. 2010 enroll

Jan. 2011 enroll

Jan. 2012 enroll

Feb. 2013 enroll

Jan. 2014 enroll

Jan. 2008 Feb. 2009 % change

Arthur Roth D-10 343 299 Empire D-6 338 282 Glenville N-6 F.D. Roosevelt R-2 324 360 Forest Hill Parkway D-5 402 360 Joseph F. Landis D-6 398 360 Louis Pasteur D-6 0 0 Charles Lake D-4 274 213 Michael R. White D-10 390 349 Patrick Henry N-3 385 334 PreK-8 Totals 2854 2557 Ave. annual survival factor Projected enrollment in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 201819 Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted

281 231 0 499 259 350 0 0 322 334 2276

304 0

0 0 0 552 0 0 0 0 437 378 1367

0 0 0 468 0 0 0 0 380 371 1219

0 0 0 426 0 0 0 0 326 351 1103

-13% -17% NA 11% -10% -10% NA -22% -11% -13% -10%

Glenville PreK-8

Address 12523 Woodside Ave. 9113 Parmalee ???

800 Linn Dr. 450 East 112th St. 10118 Hampden 815 Linn Dr. 9201 Hillock Ave. 1000 East 92nd St. 11901 Durant Ave.

2010 Master Plan

Jan. 2008 enroll

613 0 0 0 0 462 347 1726

Feb. 2009 Feb. 2010 % change

Feb. 2010 Jan. 2011 % change

Jan. 2011 Jan. 2012 % change

Jan. 2012 Feb. 2013 % change

Feb. 2013Jan. 2014 % change

2010 Master Plan capacity

Master Plan % of Feb. 2013 count

-6% -18% NA 39% -28% -3% NA -100% -8% 0% -11%

8% -100% NA 23% -100% -100% NA NA 43% 4% -24%

-100% NA NA -10% NA NA NA NA -5% 9% -21%

NA NA NA -15% NA NA NA NA -13% -2% -11%

NA NA NA -9% NA NA NA NA -14% -5% -10%

0 0 450 1115 0 0 0 0 0 450 2015

NA NA NA 262% NA NA NA NA NA 128% 183% 0.85549 505 1510 0.86744 542 1473

Glenville: The 2010 Master Plan would provide space for about 1,473 to 1,510 more students than the neighborhood is likely to have in 2018-19. Under the Plan, only one school, for 450 students at an unspecified location, is yet to be built (Segment 6).

Geographic considerations aside, that school clearly is not needed. The chief culprit for overcapacity in Glenville is Franklin D. Roosevelt school, which was renovated in Segment 2 for 1,115 students but has only 426. In addition, Patrick Henry, built new in Segment 3 for 450 students, has only 351. Transportation solutions for making use of unused space at FDR and Henry would eliminate any need for another new school in Glenville. Change from 2010 Master Plan: minus 450.

18

Rhodes

2010 Master Plan D-10 ???

N-7 R-7 N-9

Jan. 2008 enroll 691 614 707 502 0 2514

Feb. 2009 enroll 678 606 712 449 0 2445

Feb. 2010 enroll 630 563 712 424 0 2329

PreK-8 Address Benjamin Franklin 1905 Spring Rd. Charles A. Mooney * 3213 Montclair Ave. Denison 3799 West 33rd St. William C. Bryant 3121 Oak Park Ave. William R. Harper 5515 Ira Ave. Totals * Has additional 162 in Facing History New Tech 9-10th Grades Ave. annual survival factor Projected enrollment in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) Master Plan slots in 2018-19 Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted

Jan. 2011 enroll 667 725 617 350 0 2359

Jan. 2012 enroll 634 490 634 370 0 2128

Feb. 2013 enroll 558 505 571 389 0 2023

Jan. 2014 enroll 591 505 484 417 0 1997

Jan. 2008 Feb. 2009 % change -2% -1% 1% -11% NA -3%

Feb. 2009 Feb. 2010 % change -7% -7% 0% -6% NA -5%

Feb. 2010 Jan. 2011 % change 6% 29% -13% -17% NA 1%

Jan. 2011 Jan. 2012 % change -5% -32% 3% 6% NA -10%

Jan. 2012 Feb. 2013 % change -12% 3% -10% 5% NA -5%

Feb. 2013Jan. 2014 % change 6% 0% -15% 7% NA -1%

2010 Master Plan capacity 0 0 720 600 450 1770

Master Plan % of Feb. 2013 count NA NA 149% 144% NA 89%

0.96298 1654 116 0.96573 1677 93

Rhodes: The 2010 Master Plan would provide space for about 93 to 116 more students than the neighborhood is likely to have in 2018-19. The relatively small difference means that no changes in the Master Plan are needed to match expected enrollment.

However, the plan for Rhodes includes building a new Denison for 720 students although it has only 484. Given the enrollment trend and relative isolation of Denison, which is separated from the rest of the neighborhood by the Cleveland Metroparks Zoo and Pearl Road/West 25th Street, the Denison plan needs to be cut to 450. The current Plan for the rest of the neighborhood is to eventually demolish the well-attended Benjamin Franklin (591 students) and Charles Mooney (505 students). The District recently spent more than $2 million to convert the third floor of Mooney to a New Tech high school program. Under the Plan, those two schools essentially are to be replaced by a new William R. Harper, currently closed, for 450 students, and a renovated William C. Bryant (currently 417 students), for 600 students. Does the District really intend to close Mooney and Franklin? If not, then the plans for Harper and Bryant need to be revisited. Renovation of Franklin or the rest of Mooney would seem to eliminate any need to replace Harper. Change from 2010 Master Plan: 0.

19

Adams

2010 Master Plan N-1 N-4 D-4 N-5 N-4 N-7 D-6 D-10

Jan. 2008 enroll 604 384 0 416 367 481 316 394 2962

Feb. 2009 enroll 572 312 0 354 333 420 284 347 2622

PreK-8 Address A.J. Rickoff 3500 East 147th St. Charles Dickens 13013 Corlett Ave. Corlett 13013 Corlett Ave. Miles 11918 Miles Ave. Nathan Hale 3588 MLK, Jr. Dr. Paul Revere 10706 Sandusky Robert Fulton 3291 East 140th St. Woodland Hills 9201 Crane Ave. PreK-8 Totals Ave. annual survival factor Projected enrollment in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19 Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted

Feb. 2010 enroll 544 313 0 339 318 420 283 293 2510

Jan. 2011 enroll 504 433 0 385 412 508 0 348 2590

Jan. 2012 enroll 540 413 0 346 435 476 0 0 2210

Feb. 2013 enroll 513 369 0 281 402 348 0 0 1913

Jan. 2014 enroll 515 319 0 263 381 288 0 0 1766

Jan. 2008 Feb. 2009 % change -5% -19% NA -15% -9% -13% -10% -12% -11%

Feb. 2009 Feb. 2010 % change -5% 0% NA -4% -5% 0% 0% -16% -4%

Feb. 2010 Jan. 2011 % change -7% 38% NA 14% 30% 21% -100% 19% 3%

Jan. 2011 Jan. 2012 % change 7% -5% NA -10% 6% -6% NA -100% -15%

Jan. 2012 Feb. 2013 % change -5% -11% NA -19% -8% -27% NA NA -13%

Feb. 2013Jan. 2014 % change 0% -14% NA -6% -5% -17% NA NA -8%

2010 Master Plan capacity 720 450 0 450 400 350 0 0 2370

Master Plan % of Feb. 2013 count 140% 141% NA 171% 105% 122% NA NA 134% 0.91940 1160 1210 0.90782 1089 1281

Adams: The 2010 Master Plan would provide space for about 1,210 to 1,281 more students than the neighborhood is likely to have in 2018-19. All but one of the schools planned for this neighborhood have already been built. Only Revere, planned for 350 with a current enrollment of 288, remains. A new Revere is clearly not needed, especially in view of underutilization of the new Charles Dickens (Segment 4) and new Miles (Segment 5), with a combined capacity of 900 and current enrollment of 582. Change from 2010 Master Plan: minus 350.

20

Jan. Feb. Feb. Jan. 2008 2009 2010 2011 PreK-8 Address enroll enroll enroll enroll Adlai Stevenson 18300 Woda Ave. 299 282 279 288 Charles Eliot 15700 Lotus Dr. 326 336 345 466 Cranwood 13604 Christine Ave. 0 0 0 0 Emile deSauze * 4747 East 176th St. 356 319 295 284 Whit. Young (2-8) 17900 Harvard Ave. 182 165 124 208 Gracemount 16200 Glendale Ave. 504 441 470 0 Robert Jamison 4092 East 146th St. 586 522 463 442 Totals 2253 2065 1976 1688 * deSauze is in current Master Plan but was removed from analysis when District closed it.

Kennedy

2010 Master Plan N-4 D-10 D-10 N-7* D-10 D-6 N-4

Jan. 2012 enroll 388 510 0 0 184 0 438 1520

Feb. 2013 enroll 438 485 0 0 171 0 417 1511

Jan. 2014 enroll 375 416 0 0 147 0 432 1370

Jan. 2008 Feb. 2009 % change -6% 3% NA -10% -9% -13% -11% -8%

Feb. 2009 Feb. 2010 % change -1% 3% NA -8% -25% 7% -11% -4%

Feb. 2010 Jan. 2011 % change 3% 35% NA -4% 68% -100% -5% -15%

Jan. 2011 Jan. 2012 % change 35% 9% NA -100% -12% NA -1% -10%

Jan. 2012 Feb. 2013 % change 13% -5% NA NA -7% NA -5% -1%

Feb. 2013Jan. 2014 % change -14% -14% NA NA -14% NA 4% -9%

2010 Master Plan capacity 450 0 0 0 0 0 450 900

Ave. annual survival factor Projected enrollment in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19 Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted

Master Plan % of Feb. 2013 count 120% NA NA NA NA NA 104% 66% 0.92149 910 (10) 0.92015 904 (4)

Kennedy: The 2010 Master Plan would provide space for about 4 to 10 fewer students than the neighborhood is likely to have in 2018-19. No more new schools are planned or needed for the neighborhood. Change from 2010 Master Plan: 0

21

Feb. 2010 enroll 369 505 235 472 575

Jan. 2011 enroll 379 470 0 454 534

Jan. 2012 enroll 311 508 0 439 458

Feb. 2013 enroll 323 527 0 431 431

Jan. 2014 enroll 324 491 0 381 413

Jan. 2008 Feb. 2009 % change 0% 5% -12% -16% -10%

D. MacArthur Keep 96 165 196 Garfield N-3 160 153 387 Louis Agassiz D-10 337 347 354 Louisa May Alcott R-5 212 233 225 Marion C. Seltzer R-9 641 590 588 McKinley N-7 340 308 283 Newton D. Baker D-10 478 458 477 Riverside N-1 530 554 521 R.G. Jones N-3 393 396 395 Valley View D-10 98 134 151 Watterson-Lake N-7 550 564 500 Wilbur Wright R-9 632 607 623 Totals 6900 6771 6856 Ave. annual survival factor Projected enrollment in 2019-19 Excess / (deficit) Master Plan slots in 2018-19 Ave. annual survival factor, without highest and lowest years Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 Ajusted excess / (deficit) Master Plan slots, 2018-19

228 440 352 239 534 308 514 529 390 191 379 573 6514

271 537 326 201 485 277 400 463 429 196 380 487 6168

296 541 325 234 454 275 334 462 412 212 336 481 6074

309 509 297 221 413 265 356 474 447 196 267 398 5761

72% -4% 3% 10% -8% -9% -4% 5% 1% 37% 3% -4% -2%

Marshall PreK-8 Almira Artemus Ward Brooklawn H. Barbara Booker Clara Westropp

Address 3380 West 98th St. 4315 West 140th St. 11801 Worthington 2121 West 67th St. 19202 Puritas Ave. 4401 Valleyside Rd. 3800 West 140th St. 3595 Bosworth Rd. 10308 Baltic Rd. 1468 West 98th St. 3349 West 125th St. 3690 West 159th St. 14601 Montrose 4550 West 150th St. 17200 Valleyview 1422 West 74th St. 11005 Parkhurst Dr.

2010 Master Plan N-5 N-3 D-6 N-9 N-7

Jan. 2008 enroll 471 428 317 531 686

Feb. 2009 enroll 473 449 278 446 616

Feb. 2009 Feb. 2010 % change -22% 12% -15% 6% -7%

Feb. 2010 Jan. 2011 % change 3% -7% -100% -4% -7%

Jan. 2011 Jan. 2012 % change -18% 8% NA -3% -14%

Jan. 2012 Feb. 2013 % change 4% 4% NA -2% -6%

Feb. 2013Jan. 2014 % change 0% -7% NA -12% -4%

2010 Master Plan capacity 450 450 0 450 540

Master Plan % of Feb. 2013 count 139% 92% NA 118% 131%

19% 153% 2% -3% 0% -8% 4% -6% 0% 13% -11% 3% 1%

16% 14% -1% 6% -9% 9% 8% 2% -1% 26% -24% -8% -5%

19% 22% -7% -16% -9% -10% -22% -12% 10% 3% 0% -15% -5%

9% 1% 0% 16% -6% -1% -17% 0% -4% 8% -12% -1% -2%

4% -6% -9% -6% -9% -4% 7% 3% 8% -8% -21% -17% -5%

0 426 0 226 423 450 0 436 450 0 650 720 5671

NA 84% NA 102% 102% 170% NA 92% 101% NA 243% 181% 98% 0.97068 4965 706 0.96616 4850 821

Marshall: The Master Plan would provide space for about 706 to 821 more students than the neighborhood is likely to have in 2018-19. Opportunities for reducing capacity: Watterson-Lake (267 students) from planned 650 to 350; McKinley (265 students) from 450 to 350; Clara Westropp (413 students) from 540 to 450; Barbara Booker (381 students) from 450 to 350; replacing Wilbur Wright (398 students) for 450 students instead of renovating it for 720. Change from 2010 Master Plan: minus 860.

22

Lincoln-West

2010 Master Plan N-3 R-7 N-8 N-9 N-5 N-5 D-10

Jan. 2008 enroll 443 595 812 892 593 315 457

Feb. 2009 enroll 447 560 780 823 537 271 447

Feb. 2010 enroll 333 587 758 784 368 342 466

Jan. 2011 enroll 332 551 690 820 371 205 430

Jan. 2012 enroll 351 608 647 718 369 182 435

Feb. 2013 enroll 365 611 654 709 314 208 431

Jan. 2014 enroll 376 592 701 639 333 238 406

Jan. 2008 Feb. 2009 % change 1% -6% -4% -8% -9% -14% -2%

Feb. 2009 Feb. 2010 % change -26% 5% -3% -5% -31% 26% 4%

Feb. 2010 Jan. 2011 % change 0% -6% -9% 5% 1% -40% -8%

PreK-8 Address Buhrer 1991 Barber Ave. Clark 5550 Clark Ave. Jos. M. Gallagher 6601 Franklin Blvd.

Luis Munoz Marin 1701 Castle Ave. Orchard 4200 Bailey Ave. Paul Dunbar 2200 West 28th St. Scranton 1991 Barber Ave. Thomas Jefferson (preK-8) ** 3145 West 46th St. N-4 0 0 0 167 232 245 256 NA NA NA Tremont 2409 West 10th St. D-10 456 470 507 522 575 603 567 3% 8% 3% Walton 3409 Walton Ave. N-9 592 572 603 544 460 352 311 -3% 5% -10% Waverly 1810 West 54th St. D-10 448 487 462 419 338 320 301 9% -5% -9% PreK-8 Totals 5603 5394 5210 5051 4915 4812 4720 -4% -3% -3% ** Jefferson PreK-8 2010 Master Plan capacity is an estimate, accounting for dual use as a high school and its current unavailability to non-immigrants Ave. annual survival factor Projected enrollment in 2019-19 Excess / (deficit) Master Plan slots in 2018-19 Ave. annual survival factor, without highest and lowest years Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 Adjusted excess / (deficit) Master Plan slots 2018-19

Jan. 2011 Jan. 2012 % change 6% 10% -6% -12% -1% -11% 1%

Jan. 2012 Feb. 2013 % change 4% 0% 1% -1% -15% 14% -1%

Feb. 2013Jan. 2014 % change 3% -3% 7% -10% 6% 14% -6%

2010 Master Plan capacity 350 540 720 540 450 450 0

Master Plan % of Feb. 2013 count 93% 91% 103% 85% 135% 189% NA

39% 10% -15% -19% -3%

6% 5% -23% -5% -2%

4% -6% -12% -6% -2%

265 0 450 0 3765

104% NA 145% NA 80%

0.97184 4092 (327) 0.97187 4092 (327)

Lincoln-West: The 2010 Master Plan would provide space for about 327 fewer students than the neighborhood is likely to have in 2018-19. Because four schools remain to be built under the current Plan, there are multiple options for adjusting student capacity in the neighborhood. Use of Jefferson as a K-12 for immigrants hinders analysis of the school’s Master Plan contribution to overall neighborhood capacity. One obvious question that also needs to be addressed is what to do with Tremont Montessori. Located in a neighborhood with ongoing housing construction, the school has 567 students but tentatively is planned for demolition in Segment 10. The similarly planned demolition of Scranton could fill up currently unused space in the new Paul Dunbar and Orchard (although transportation could be required), posing the question of where would the Tremont students attend school? Addition of 350 to LincolnWest’s planned capacity is suggested. Change from 2010 Master Plan: plus 350.

23

South

2010 Master Plan D-6 Keep N-1 N-4 D-10 N-9 N-2

Jan. 2008 enroll 374 374 549 317 243 244 128 2229

Feb. 2009 enroll 408 398 444 248 272 222 197 2189

PreK-8 Address Albert B. Hart 3901 East 74th St. Fullerton 5920 Fullerton Ave. Miles Park 4090 East 93rd St. Mound 5935 Ackley Rd. Union 6701 Union Ave. Willow 5004 Glazier Ave. Warner 8315 Jeffries Ave. Totals Ave. annual survival factor Projected enrollment in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19 Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted

Feb. 2010 enroll 328 367 502 235 233 215 264 2144

Jan. 2011 enroll 0 401 565 253 254 227 302 2002

Jan. 2012 enroll 0 316 578 499 0 237 354 1984

Feb. 2013 enroll 0 309 551 485 0 228 350 1923

Jan. 2014 enroll 0 297 552 417 0 265 395 1926

Jan. 2008 Feb. 2009 % change 9% 6% -19% -22% 12% -9% 54% -2%

Feb. 2009 Feb. 2010 % change -20% -8% 13% -5% -14% -3% 34% -2%

Feb. 2010 Jan. 2011 % change -100% 9% 13% 8% 9% 6% 14% -7%

Jan. 2011 Jan. 2012 % change NA -21% 2% 97% -100% 4% 17% -1%

Jan. 2012 Feb. 2013 % change NA -2% -5% -3% NA -4% -1% -3%

Feb. 2013Jan. 2014 % change NA -4% 0% -14% NA 16% 13% 0.16%

2010 Master Plan capacity 0 0 650 450 0 350 570 2020

Master Plan % of Feb. 2013 count NA NA 118% 108% NA 132% 144% 105% 0.97618 1707 313 0.98044 1745 275

South: The 2010 Master Plan would provide space for about 275-313 more students than the neighborhood is likely to have in 2018-19. The only school remaining to be built in South is Willow, which has 265 students and is planned for a capacity of 350. The school is geographically isolated, the only CMSD facility in its Zip Code. No other planned or current single new school is nearby or has enough excess capacity to handle the Willow enrollment, which increased 17 percent in the last year. However, a transportation solution would be better than creating overcapacity. Change from 2010 Master Plan: minus 350.

24

High schools The state’s new enrollment forecast provides for 9,035 high school students (including career technical training). That would allow the District to add 941 slots to its 2010 Plan, which calls for a new West Side High for 600 students and a new Glenville High for 912 students.

Unfortunately, the BAC’s analysis – using the same methodology employed for the K-8 schools -- identifies a need to add about 1,350 to 2,150 new or fully renovated high school slots to the 2010 Plan. Details are on the following pages with charts for each of three high school regions as previously defined by the District.

As with the K-8 schools, the solution may be to use only local tax dollars to build needed space that is not deemed eligible for co-funding by the state. Unlike with the K-8 schools, the problem does not stem largely from under-use of capacity already built.

Rather, the problem may lie with the forecasts themselves.

Here, we can only note that the state consultant’s draft reports have consistently underestimated the District’s high school enrollment. In 2006, the forecast for the current school year was for 9,604 students. In 2009, the forecast for this year was 10,208. The 2011 forecast predicted 11,023 students this year. The actual high school enrollment in 2013-14? At least 12,291.

That record does not mean that the latest forecast is off-target, but it does suggest that if the District goes ahead and plans for more high school construction and renovation than currently qualifies for co-funding -- financing the excess with only local tax money -- the next forecast in two or three years might further expand the co-funding allowance for high schools.

Whatever options are chosen for using the co-funded high school space, the District faces decisions on what to do with the numerous high schools that inevitably will be left out of the new Master Plan. Essentially, should they be minimally maintained and eventually closed, or should they be substantially or fully renovated or even replaced using only local tax dollars?

Although these decisions will not be part of the official, state co-funded Master Plan, they need to be made now so that the District will know how much more capital improvements money it needs.

25

High Schools WEST REGION West Side Rhodes New Tech @ Mooney Garrett Morgan Lincoln-West Lincoln-West 9th grade T. Jeff. Newcomers HS** John Marshall 10-12**** Carl Shuler (Marshall) Marshall 9th @ Shuler*** Max Hayes Vo-Ed/New Tech Halle CLC Totals

Address ???

5100 Biddulph 3213 Montclair 4016 Woodbine 3202 West 30th 3202 West 30th 3145 West 46th 3952 West 140th 13501 Terminal 13501 Terminal Detroit Ave./W. 65th & Walworth 7901 Halle

2010 Master Plan N-5 R-2 D-10 Keep N-4 N-4 N-5 D-10 D-10 N-5 D-10

Jan. 2008 enroll

Feb. 2009 enroll

Feb. 2010 enroll

Jan. 2011 enroll

Jan. 2012 enroll

Feb. 2013 enroll

Jan. 2014 enroll

Jan. 2008 Feb. 2009 % change

Feb. 2009 Feb. 2010 % change

Feb. 2010 Jan. 2011 % change

Jan. 2011 Jan. 2012 % change

Jan. 2012 Feb. 2013 % change

0 1416 0 227 1414 0 0 1668 369 0

0 1374 0 214 1384 0 0 1642 348 0

0 1271 0 250 1449 0 0 1597 483 0

0 1189 0 366 886 362 60 1162 0 342

0 1184 0 311 842 293 76 1036 0 293

0 1232 62 304 825 256 92 840 0 301

0 1226 162 302 887 209 108 834 0 337

NA -3% NA -6% -2% NA NA -2% -6% NA

NA -7% NA 17% 5% NA NA -3% 39% NA

NA -6% NA 46% -39% NA NA -27% -100% NA

NA 0% NA -15% -5% -19% 27% -11% NA -14%

NA 4% NA -2% -2% -13% 21% -19% NA 3%

472 0 5566

510 0 5472

518 0 5568

517 0 4884

761 0 4796

826 0 4738

893 0 4958

8% NA -2%

2% NA 2%

0% NA -12%

47% NA -2%

9% NA -1%

Feb. 2013Jan. 2014 % change

2010 Mast er Plan capacity

Master Plan % of Feb. 2013 count

0% 161% -1% 8% -18% 17% -1% NA 12%

600 1005 0 0 0 0 520 1260 0 0

NA 82% NA NA NA 0% 565% 150% NA NA

800 0 4185

97% NA 88% 0.98236 4536 (351) 0.99986 4954 (769)

8% 5%

Ave. annual survival factor Projected enrollment in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) Master Plan slots in 2018-19 Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted

West Region. The Region is projected to be short 351 to 769 new or fully renovated high school spaces in 2019 IF the planned West Side High is built for 600 students. If it is assumed that Max Hayes enrollment comes evenly from all three high school regions and Thomas Jefferson is removed from the equation because it is not available to the general population, then the Region’s need for additional new or fully renovated high school Master Plan space is 473 to 654 slots.

The range of unbuilt but needed high school slots in the Region is therefore 951 to 1,369 slots.

John Marshall is being built for 1,260 students, and the current Marshall Grade 9-12 enrollment is 1,171, so overcrowding is unlikely there, especially considering that Carl Shuler, which has undergone more than $5 million in renovations for service as a swing school during Marshall construction, will be available later to serve as a Marshall 9th Grade Academy or a specialty high school.

26

However the Garrett Morgan School of Science is tentatively planned for demolition in Segment 10, and James Rhodes High, fully renovated in Segment 2, remains enrolled over capacity even though the third floor of nearby Charles Mooney has been converted to a New Tech high school. Lincoln-West is not in good repair and is a candidate for replacement or renovation.

The District is also installing a Bard Early College high school at the former Brooklawn elementary school on West 117th St. The conservative unbuilt-but-needed range allows for replacement or renovation of Lincoln-West and/or replacement of Garrett Morgan, a new West Side High, full renovation of Mooney as a high school, full renovation of Brooklawn. Suggested change to 2010 Master Plan: add 350 to 700 slots.

SOUTHEAST REGION High Schools Washington Park South HS (now closed) John F. Kennedy HS Whitney Young (9-12) John Adams HS Totals

Address 3875 Wash. Park 7415 Broadway 17100 Harvard 17900 Harvard 3817 MLK Jr.

2010 Master Plan ???

Keep Keep Keep N-1

Jan. 2008 enroll 0 966 908 237 1262 3373

Feb. 2009 enroll 0 920 976 221 1176 3293

Feb. 2010 enroll 0 788 878 218 1174 3058

Jan. 2011 enroll 139 0 1013 198 1077 2427

Jan. 2012 enroll 148 0 794 149 1154 2245

Feb. 2013 enroll 193 0 840 126 1021 2180

Jan. 2014 enroll 195 0 782 111 1055 2143

Jan. 2008 Feb. 2009 % change NA -5% 7% -7% -7% -2%

Feb. 2009 Feb. 2010 % change NA -14% -10% -1% 0% -7%

Feb. 2010 Jan. 2011 % change NA -100% 15% -9% -8% -21%

Jan. 2011 Jan. 2012 % change 6% NA -22% -25% 7% -7%

Jan. 2012 Feb. 2013 % change 30% NA 6% -15% -12% -3%

Feb. 2013Jan. 2014 % change 1% NA -7% -12% 3% -2%

2010 Master Plan capacity 0 0 0 0 1335 1335

Ave. annual survival factor Projected enrollment in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) Master Plan slots in 2018-19 Ave. annual survival factor, adjust to remove highest, lowest years Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted

Master Plan % of Feb. 2013 count NA NA NA NA 127% 62% 0.92961 1488 (153) 0.95024 1660 (325)

Southeast Region. The BAC analysis finds that the Southeast Region will be short of high school space for 153 to 325 students. The OFCC’s minimum size for a new school is 350. Kennedy has already received $2.5 million in locally financed repairs and renovations. The former Cranwood elementary will host the Kennedy 9th Grade next year. The best option seems to be locally funded improvements at Kennedy, though a small (350) renovation – Young, Washington Park? – may be appropriate. Suggested change to 2010 Master Plan: add 0 to 350 slots.

27

High Schools NORTHEAST REGION Collinwood HS Ginn Academy Glenville HS East HS Margaret Ireland East Tech HS Cle. School of Arts 9-12 John Hay MLK High Jane Addams SuccessTech MC2 STEM Design Lab Jesse Owens Acad.

Totals

Address

2010 Master Plan

15210 St. Clair 655 East 162nd 650 East 113th 1349 East 79th.

1800 East 63rd 2439 East 55th 2064 Stearns Rd. 2075 Stokes 1651 East 71st 2373 East 30th 1440 Lakeside 2124 Chester 1740 East 32nd 11711 Larchmere

Keep D-10 N-9 Keep D-10 Keep N-5 R-1 Keep Keep R-1 NA Keep D-6

Jan. 2008 enroll

Feb. 2009 enroll

Feb. 2010 enroll

987 0 1383 711 46 764 374 593 581 497 245 0

889 204 1136 661 94 793 403 722 497 410 245 81 0 0 6135

807 277 1040 627 78 795 445 831 500 541 246 163 0 0 6350

6181

Jan. 2011 enroll 697 258 939 0 120 862 428 859 565 615 231 224 0 0 5798

Jan. 2012 enroll

Feb. 2013 enroll

Jan. 2014 enroll

Jan. 2008 Feb. 2009 % change

625 219 787 0 0 772 414 842 549 661 235 292 0 0 5396

620 201 703 0 0 680 379 868 494 522 198 313 0 0 4978

598 259 641 0 0 643 384 910 465 371 196 340 175 0 4982

-10% NA -18% -7% 104% 4% 8% 22% -14% -18% 0% NA NA NA -1%

Feb. 2009 Feb. 2010 % change

Feb. 2010 Jan. 2011 % change

Jan. 2011 Jan. 2012 % change

Jan. 2012 Feb. 2013 % change

Feb. 2013Jan. 2014 % change

-9% 36% -8% -5% -17% 0% 10% 15% 1% 32% 0% 101% NA NA 4%

-14% -7% -10% -100% 54% 8% -4% 3% 13% 14% -6% 37% NA NA -9%

-10% -15% -16% NA -100% -10% -3% -2% -3% 7% 2% 30% NA NA -7%

-1% -8% -11% NA NA -12% -8% 3% -10% -21% -16% 7% NA NA -8%

-4% 29% -9% NA NA -5% 1% 5% -6% -29% -1% 9% NA NA 0%

2010 Master Plan capacity 0 0 912 0 0 550 1232 0 0 400 0 0 0 3094

Ave. annual survival factor Projected enrollment in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) Master Plan slots in 2018-19 Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted

Northeast Region. The Region is projected to be short of needed new or fully renovated high school space for about 1,003 to 1,092 students. If one assumes that John Hay, Cleveland School of the Arts, SuccessTech, and MC2 STEM draw students equally from the three high school regions, the need rises slightly to 1,128 to 1,171.

Meanwhile, the 2010 Plan calls for a new Glenville for 912 students although the school has only 641 now.

If the Glenville plan were reduced to 600 and 1,100 slots were added to the 2010 plan, the District could allocate new or fully renovated space for about 1,400 additional students in the region.

28

Master Plan % of Feb. 2013 count NA NA 142% NA NA NA 143% 135% NA NA 204% NA NA NA 62% 0.96578 4186 (1092) 0.961641 4097 (1003)

Options for using that additional space are numerous: renovation of part of East Tech, as specified in the 2008 Master Plan; replacement of Collinwood; renovation of Martin Luther King Jr.; a new downtown school; a permanent home for MC2 STEM and Design Lab, renovation of Jane Addams. Clearly, all of these cannot be co-funded, and the rest would require local-only funding.

The possibilities for the Northeast Region would be expanded if the District elected to move Glenville High to the half-unused Franklin D. Roosevelt K-8 building, although that would entail finding a home for the K-8 students. Suggested change to 2010 Master Plan: add 1,000 to 1,100 slots.

Community involvement Much clearly is at stake for Cleveland in the current Master Plan revision process. Community participation is vitally important for a successful outcome.

The new co-funded Master Plan will shape the final stages of the District’s school construction and renovation program and determine whether, at its conclusion, the program will provide access to modern educational facilities for all of the city’s children. The new co-funded Master Plan will likely be part of larger Plan that includes many projects not co-funded by the state. Together they will determine how much more money the District will need for construction and renovation.

The District Administration currently plans soon to formally present its Master Plan proposal to the Board of Education, though at a date as yet unspecified, and then to hold a series of community meetings about the proposals. Based on public input from those meetings, the District intends present a revised proposal to the Board and to the Ohio Facilities Construction Commission.

Eventually, the District will have to decide if and when to ask voters to approve money to execute the plans. The $335 million approved by voters in 2001 to launch the program is nearly depleted.

29

30

31