Master Plan Update 14, 05172011

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Master Plan Update 14

Matching construction with enrollment

May 17, 2011 Contents and Summary

Introduction: Enrollment-based planning: It’s been nearly three years since the Bond Accountability Commission undertook an indepth review of high school construction plans for the Cleveland Metropolitan School District as they relate to enrollment. And it’s been nearly a year since the BAC reviewed the building plans for elementary schools. Now it is time to do both. Page 4

Solving the high school puzzle: Assessment of the adequacy and distributional equity of the Master Plan for high school space is extremely difficult because of the variety and volatility of the factors involved. Still, an attempt must be made to assure access for Cleveland's students as well as to provide for the best use of scarce tax dollars. Page 5

Range of possibilities: Enrollment-based calculations suggest capacity needs by which the present plans can be judged. Page 6

Within limits? How to read the charts. Page 8

Charts and analysis of high school plans:

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•

The Northeast Region is planned for new or fully renovated high school space that would not accommodate all of its probable students in the target year, 2017-18. The planned Glenville could be made larger, but it appears that the currently planned Glenville for 912 would accommodate the students who will want to attend there in 2017, because the school has only 939 students now and lost 17 percent of its enrollment in the last two years. The better alternative might be to revive the once-planned partial renovation of East Tech for 431 students, but most of those slots would have to be taken from some other planned school. In any case, the non-Master Plan schools in the region provide plenty of capacity for the future as long as they remain in operation. Page 9

•

The Master Plan provides for only one high school in the Southeast Region, the already built John Adams for 1,335 students, but that is probably adequate considering the region’s history of steep enrollment decline. A safety valve will be provided by continued operation of John F. Kennedy, which has a capacity of 1,568 students and has 1,013 enrolled.

Page 11

•

In the West Region, James Rhodes, renovated in Segment 2, is hosting 184 more students than its capacity. LincolnWest is no longer overcrowded, thanks mostly to creation of the 9th-grade Academy at Thomas Jefferson. John Marshall is no longer overcrowded, owing to formal establishment of a 9th-grade Academy at Carl Shuler and a sharp drop in overall grade 9-12 enrollment. The plan to build Marshall for 1,400 students is questionable because the school has only 1,162, unless the District has reason to believe that the recent enrollment plunge is temporary. If the District eliminates the planned 600-student West Side High, for which no site is known to have been selected, Marshall could be kept at the currently planned capacity. Based only on enrollment, a strong case can no longer be made for a new West Side if the District is committed to operating the 9th-grade academies and Marshall is kept at the current size. If West Side is built, a strong case cannot be made for building Marshall for more students than it has now. Community input on these related issues is needed before construction of Marshall begins. If it is decided to build West Side, the question of a site should quickly be resolved. Page 12

•

These Segment 5 decisions are related to future decisions on whether to boost Glenville's planned size or to revive the idea of a partial renovation at East Tech. Again, all of these issues deserve abundant public input. Waiting for the state's new enrollment forecast, which should be available in fall 2012, is in an option, but not a particularly good one for the schools in Segment 5 in view of the risk of even higher energy prices, a major component of construction costs.

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Charts and analysis of elementary school plans: •

The Master Plan for the Collinwood neighborhood appears to be on target for the enrollment needs of the future. Page 15

•

The plan for building Case and Buckeye-Woodland in Segment 6 would give the East neighborhood 10 percent more new classroom space than it needs now and probably much more in the target school year of 2017-18. Those schools may be needed to ensure geographic accessibility, but it seems clear that size reductions should strongly be considered.

Page 16

•

The East Tech neighborhood appears to be on target for the future, though it may have been trimmed too much by the District's recent decision to close Giddings, which had been planned for replacement in Segment 8. Bolton and Stokes Academy provide safety valves should more space be needed, and it may be that one or the other will have to be returned to the Master Plan for co-funded replacement or renovation if neighborhood enrollment should stabilize. Page 18

•

With the planned closing of Capt. Arthur Roth, the Glenville neighborhood will have three elementary schools left, and one of those, Michael White, would eventually be demolished under the Master Plan. But another school, dubbed "Glenville," would be added in Segment 6. The remaining schools -- Glenville, Patrick Henry and Franklin D. Roosevelt -- would have 17 percent more total capacity in 2017 than the neighborhood needs now. Consideration should be given to whether a new Glenville is needed and, if it is for geographic reasons, whether it can be pared. Page 19

•

The James Rhodes neighborhood would have three elementary schools under the Master Plan, enough to accommodate about 75 percent of the current enrollment. That appears to be prudent. Benjamin Franklin provides a very large safety valve should enrollment stabilize. Page 20

•

The John Adams neighborhood is being planned for 92 percent of its current enrollment. That sounds like a recipe for unused space in the future, but for geographical reasons there may be no remedy. Page 21

•

The recent decision to close Emile deSauze, which had been slated for replacement in Segment 7, leaves the John F. Kennedy neighborhood on course to have Master Plan space for only 53 per cent of its current students. That seems

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draconian, but the neighborhood lost 18 percent of its students in the last two years and 59 percent since 1998. Eliot and Cranwood remain as safety valves, and either or both could be returned to the construction plan if needed. Page 22 •

The Marshall neighborhood is planned for enough new or fully renovated schools to accommodate 89 percent of its current enrollment. The stability of the neighborhood enrollment suggests that this percentage is not too high. Page 23

•

The current plan to accommodate 72 percent of the Lincoln-West neighborhood’s current enrollment in new schools in the year 2017 appears reasonable for now. However, the stability of the enrollments at Marin and Tremont, and the 2010 Master Plan decision to scrap plans for a new Scranton, raise the question of where the students from Tremont would go to school if the District indeed demolished the school in Segment 10 as planned. The District said that it considered closing Tremont -- an old building that is far larger than currently needed -- at the end of the current school year as a cost-cutting move but decided against it. If enrollment in the east end of this academic neighborhood holds steady, then consideration ought to be given to a new, smaller Tremont. Page 24

• The plan to build a new Willow for 100 students more than it has would give the South neighborhood the capacity for one percent more students in 2017 than exist now. Eliminating Willow would yield a more reasonable 83 percent. Page 25

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Introduction: Enrollment-based planning

It’s been nearly three years since the Bond Accountability Commission undertook an in-depth review of high school construction plans for the Cleveland Metropolitan School District as they relate to enrollment. And it’s been nearly a year since the BAC examined the building plans for elementary schools. Now it is time to review both again.

The reviews are needed chiefly because the District’s enrollment has continued to decline, rapidly in some areas, and because the building plan itself has been changed by a little-discussed revision of the Master Plan last June, by the District’s Academic Transformation Plan, and more recently by school closures undertaken to reduce the District’s operating costs.

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Some background: the Ohio School Facilities Commission (OSFC), which pays for 68 percent of most costs of the District’s building program, will co-fund only the school space that its consultants predict will be needed in the program’s final, or build-out, year. Therefore, the OSFC requires that a school district’s Master Plan for construction be adjusted to conform to the latest enrollment estimate. An OSFC consultant completed an enrollment study in 2006, and as a result the District had to pare its construction program, resulting in what we refer to as the Master Plan of 2008. Another forecast was done for the OSFC in 2009, resulting in more cuts that are contained in what we refer to as the Master Plan of 2010, a document compiled by the OSFC staff in consultation with the District Administration.

Delays in the construction program caused the build-out year, which was 2015-16 for the Master Plan of 2008, to be pushed back to 2017-18 for the current plan. The predicted build-out enrollment changed from 40,743 in the 2008 plan to 36,234 in the 2010 plan. Now, to reduce current operating costs, the District has trimmed the 2010 plan by closing two schools that had been scheduled for replacement in the future, and the OSFC will have another enrollment study done next year. That study may or may or may not require more adjustments to the Master Plan.

The OSFC enrollment forecasts are done to ensure that the building plan does not exceed the District’s overall needs, but the OSFC leaves decisions on where to build individual schools and how big to build them up to the District.

In reviewing these decisions the BAC has sought to ensure that they are appropriate for the needs of each academic neighborhood and that they equitably distribute a scarce resource: co-funded space in new or fully renovated schools. The amount of such co-funded space is finite, and it has shrunk with each triennial enrollment forecast. Therefore it is important that too much school capacity not be built in a particular academic neighborhood, because doing so inherently means that another neighborhood will not get enough. And in any case, constructing school space that will not be used is simply a waste of taxpayer money.

Improvement in balance

The Bond Accountability Commission reported in August 2008 and July 2009 that under the Master Plan of 2008, some of the District’s 10 academic neighborhoods were allotted more space than it appeared they were likely to have in the build-out year, which would be a waste of taxpayer money. Some academic neighborhoods were being planned for more students in 2015 than they had at the time, despite a decade-long record of steep enrollment decline. And a few neighborhoods were being planned for fewer students than they were likely to have in the build-out year.

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The BAC called on the School District to make further adjustments in the Master Plan to fix those apparent problems before the start of Segment 5. The District subsequently dropped Segment 5 plans for a new Mooney and a new Forest Hill Parkway, a total of 1,000 elementary school slots.

The Master Plan of 2010 also made other reductions, partly by incorporating school closings that were part of the Academic Transformation Plan. All of the neighborhoods that seemed headed for significant over-building of elementary schools were cut back, although two -- East and Adams – were still planned for slightly more students in 2017-18 than they had at that time. In both of those cases, too many schools were built too large in Segments 1-4, leaving little opportunity for adjustments in Segments 5-9.

The Master Plan of 2010 also reduced the size of the planned Glenville High and eliminated the renovation of a wing of East Tech. Now, armed with enrollment figures from 2011, the BAC reviews those changes and the plans for other high schools, the impact of school closings, and the plans for elementary schools.

Solving the high school puzzle

Assessment of the adequacy and distributional equity of the Master Plan for high school space is extremely difficult because of the variety and volatility of the factors involved. The Academic Transformation Plan adopted in 2010 added to the complexity of the task by essentially ending the concept of a comprehensive high school anchoring each of 10 preK-8 academic neighborhoods.

Under the Transformation Plan, two of those comprehensive high schools, South and East, were closed. And the remaining neighborhood high schools were grouped into three regions -- Northeast, Southeast and West -- along with the specialty high schools in those respective areas. The comprehensive schools also are or will be divided into multiple academies with varied themes that have the potential to draw students from outside a particular academic neighborhood of residence.

The Academic Transformation Plan also established 9th-grade academies that are not on the campus of the main high school and therefore have eased high school crowding. The creation of a high school for immigrants at the new Thomas Jefferson school also has had an impact.

Meanwhile, no site has been announced for the new West Side High of the current Segment 5, nearly three years after it was added to the Master Plan. The District Administration now acknowledges that it is undecided about whether to move forward with the school.

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Finally, an improvement in the historically high dropout rate at District high schools – a goal of the Academic Transformation Plan -- would eventually result in an increased allotment for co-funded high school space from the OSFC. At this time, the BAC simply does not know whether the dropout rate will improve, so this analysis does not assume that it will.

Era of decline

The overriding difficulty in assessing plans for high school space and location lies in the 17 percent drop in Cleveland's population over the last decade and even steeper declines in enrollment in most of the District's academic neighborhoods, reflecting the growth of charter schools and other alternatives. In the Adams neighborhood, for example, preK-8 enrollment fell by 59 percent from 1998 to 2011. Obviously, fewer elementary students will mean less demand for high school space in the future. But how much less? Will Cleveland's population begin to stabilize? And even if it does stabilize overall, will the population of a particular neighborhood or regional group of neighborhoods continue sharply to fall? Will charter schools grow, attracting more District students?

Despite the difficulty, an attempt must be made to assess plans for high school space to assure access for Cleveland's students as well as to provide for the best use of scarce tax dollars. That's why the OSFC has an enrollment forecast done every three years.

The last OSFC-commission enrollment forecast estimated that there would be about 13,034 high school/vo-ed students in the current academic year (The District’s head count found about 13,100 in February.) and that there will be about 8,300 in the final year of the program, a decline of 36 percent.

Range of possibilities

The task for District planners wishing to build schools of the right size in the right place is to estimate how the district-wide forecast might play out region by region. The BAC has attempted to make such calculations in three ways in order to provide a range of likely outcomes. Two of these calculations are based on the OSFC’s enrollment forecast, which, although it was accurate for this year, may not be accurate for future years. For now, it is the best data that we have.

All three of the estimates are based on the premise that the past is a predictor of the future. For the Cleveland District, where enrollment has declined for many years, that means an underlying assumption that enrollment will continue to fall. That might not be true; for example, it may be that the Academic Transformation Plan and other initiatives will result in stabilization of enrollment. A

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significant reduction in the high school dropout rate would dramatically change the overall enrollment picture. Still, given the historic trends, the decline in Cleveland's overall population, and plans for charter school growth, it seems unwise to plan construction to accommodate an enrollment surge until one begins to occur.

In attempting to compile a range of likely regional high school enrollments for the 2017-18 school year, the BAC first calculated the enrollment decline for each region over the last two years: 5 percent in the Northeast Region, 26 percent in the Southeast, and 11 percent in the West. If those regions continued to lose high school students at those rates, their enrollments in 2017-18 would be 4,758 in Northeast, 844 in Southeast, and 3,262 in West. The district-wide total of this figures is 8,864, which is 555 more than the 8,309 in the OSFC forecast.

Another way to calculate the estimated regional enrollment is simply to apply the OSFC forecast’s estimated percentage decline in district-wide high school enrollment from this school year to 2017-18 -- about 36 percent -- by the number of students in each region this year. That yields these totals: 3,711 in Northeast, 1,553 in Southeast, and 3,121 in West. The total differs only slightly from the OSFC forecast's prediction, due to statistical rounding.

Finally, the BAC took the overall high school student loss estimated in the OSFC forecast between the current school year and 2017-18 -- 4,725 -- and apportioned it among the regions based on each region's percentage share of high school enrollment loss since 1998. This method based on historical trends predicts 3,479 high school students in Northeast, 751 in Southeast, and 4,147 in West.

The total differs only slightly from the OSFC forecast's prediction, due to statistical rounding.

The three methods produce a range of estimates for each region: • 3,479 to 4,758 for Northeast, which is to have Master Plan space -- new or fully renovated schools -- for 3,094; • 751 to 1,553 for Southeast, which has Master Plan space for 1,335; • 3,126 to 4,160 for West, which is to have new/renovated space for 4,325.

All three regions, especially Northeast, have far more high school space than they are predicted to need under any of the methods if one considers not only new/renovated Master Plan schools but also all other operating high schools in the region.

Within limits?

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Now the question becomes whether the Master Plan high school space provided for each region is appropriate in view of the calculated ranges of expected enrollment. The charts below contain data used in the BAC’s assessment.

How to read the charts: Third column – The 2010 draft Master Plan for each school. For example, if a school is to be demolished in Segment 6, the chart says D-6. If it is to be built new, it says N-6, or renovated, R-6. If it is not to be replaced or demolished, it says Keep.

Fourth column -- The enrollment of each school in early 1998, per the Ohio Department of Education..

Fifth and Sixth columns – The enrollment of each school in February 2009 and January 2011, respectively, per the School District.

Seventh column – The percentage change in each school’s enrollment from February 2009 to January 2011.

Eighth column – The percentage change in each school’s enrollment from early 1998 to January 2011.

Ninth and 10th columns -- The OSFC-funded enrollment capacity for each school for the 2008 Master Plan and the 2010 Master Plan. If a school is listed for zero capacity, that means it is not planned for renovation or replacement.

11th and 12th columns – Percentage of the January 2011 enrollment that the Master Plans of 2008 and 2010, respectively, would accommodate by the end of the construction program. For a school or neighborhood with a history of decline (see eighth column), these accommodation percentages should be well below 100 now and grow slowly toward 100 as the program completion year approaches.

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High Schools Collinwood HS

15210 St. Clair 44110

Keep

1410

889

697

-22%

-51%

0

0

NA

NA

Ginn Academy

655 East 162nd 44110

D-10

0

204

258

26%

NA

0

0

NA

NA

Glenville HS

650 East 113th 44108

N-9

1569

1136

939

-17%

-40%

1150

912

122%

97%

East HS

1349 East 79th.

44103

Keep

1263

661

0

-100%

-100 %

0

0

NA

NA

Margaret Ireland

1800 East 63rd 44103

D-10 Close

0

94

120

28%

NA

0

NA

NA

East Tech HS

2439 East 55th 44104

Keep

1359

793

862

9%

-37%

431

0

50%

NA

School of the Arts

Stearns Road 44106

N-5

317

403

428

6%

35%

550

550

129%

129%

John Hay

2075 Stokes 44106

R-1

1356

722

859

19%

-37%

1232

1232

143%

143%

MLK High

1651 East 71st 44103

Keep

346

497

565

14%

63%

0

0

NA

NA

J. Addams Business

2373 East 30th 44115

Keep

586

410

397

-3%

-32%

0

0

NA

NA

J. Addams Design Lab

2373 East 30th 44115

Keep

0

0

218

NA

NA

0

0

NA

NA

SuccessTech

1440 Lakeside 44114

R-1

0

245

231

-6%

NA

400

400

173%

173%

MC2 STEM

1740 East 32nd 44114

Keep

0

81

224

177%

NA

0

0

NA

NA

Health Careers

1740 East 32nd 44114

Keep

404

0

0

NA

-100 %

0

0

NA

NA

41

0

0

NA

-100 %

0

0

NA

NA

8651

6135

5798

-5%

-33%

3763

3094

65%

53%

Harry L. Eastman Totals

4758

3711

3479

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Is the Master Plan high school space provided appropriate in view of the calculated ranges of expected enrollment? For the Northeast Region, the answer appears to be no. The region is planned for new/renovated high school space that would not accommodate all of its probable students according to the calculated range of possibilities. The region is planned for 485 fewer students than the lower end of its expected enrollment range. However, the Northeast calculations are skewed somewhat by the large number of specialty schools, including Ginn Academy, School of the Arts, John Hay and MC2 STEM, which draw some students from outside the Northeast Region.

The planned Glenville could be made somewhat larger by allocating the approximately 75 OSFC-allowed high school slots that the current Master Plan does not designate for a particular school. However, it appears that the currently planned Glenville for 912 will be more than adequate for the number of students who will want to attend there in 2017, because the school has only 939 students now and lost 17 percent of its enrollment in just the last two years.

The better alternative might be to revive the once-planned partial renovation of East Tech for 431 students, but most of those slots would have to be taken from some other planned school.

In any case, the non-Master Plan schools in the region provide plenty of capacity for the future. It is worth noting that East Tech gained 69 students in the last two years, while Martin Luther King Jr. gained 68, Jane Addams gained 205, and John Hay gained 137. These gains may be due partly to the 2010 closings of East, which had 661 students in 2008-09, and of South, which had 920.

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High Schools Wash. Park Environment Studies

3875 Washington Park 44105

???

South (now closed)

7415 Broadway 44105

Keep

1721

920

0

John F. Kennedy

17100 Harvard 44128

Keep

1560

976

Whitney Young

17900 Harvard 44128

Keep

John Adams

3817 MLK Jr. 44105

N-1

Totals

139

NA

0

0

NA

NA

-100%

-100 %

0

0

NA

NA

1013

4%

-35%

0

0

NA

NA

221

198

-10%

NA

0

0

NA

1208

1176

1077

-8%

-11%

1335

1335

124%

124%

4489

3293

2427

-26%

-46%

1335

1335

55%

55%

844

1553

751

The predicted range for the Southeast Region is bleak. At the top end, it suggests that the region will have 1,553 students in 2017-18, compared with its current 2,427. At the bottom end, it suggests that the region will have only 751 high school students. That is because the region has lost 46 percent of its high school enrollment since 1998, and it lost 26 percent of its enrollment over just the last two years.

South High, which had 920 students two years ago, was closed for the last academic year, yet only two high schools in the region gained students over the last two years, John F. Kennedy a paltry 37 and the new Washington Park Environmental Studies academy 139.

The Master Plan provides for only one high school in the region, the already built John Adams, which has a capacity of 1,335 students and a current enrollment of 1,077. While the Adams capacity is 220 students less than the top end of the predicted enrollment range, it is nearly 600 more than the bottom end. This suggests that the Master Plan's high school capacity for the Southeast Region is adequate, especially with the continued operation of JFK, which has a capacity of 1,568 students and has 1,013 currently.

The Master Plan of 2010 does not specify what is to become of Washington Park.

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High Schools West Side

???

N-5

Rhodes

5100 Biddulph 44144

R-2

Garrett Morgan

4016 Woodbine 44113

D-10

Lincoln-West

3202 West 30th 44109

Keep

T. Jefferson 9th grade

3145 West 46th 44102

N-4

362

Jefferson Newcomers**

3145 West 46th 44102

N-4

John Marshall w/ Shuler until 2011

3952 West 140th 44111

N-5

Carl Shuler 9th grade

13501 Terminal 44135

D-10

Max Hayes Vo-Ed HS

W. 65th & Walworth

N-5

611

510

517

1%

Halle CLC

7901 Halle 44102

D-10

33

0

0

5775

5472

4884

Totals * Marshall percentages include Shuler

1518

1472

2141

NA

NA

0

NA

NA

600

600

NA

NA

1374

1189

-13%

-22%

1005

1005

85%

85%

214

366

71%

NA

0

0

NA

NA

1384

886

-36%

-40%

0

0

NA

NA

NA NA

0

370

NA

102 %

53

NA

NA

0

150

NA

151 %

1162

-24%

-30%

1400

1400

120%

120 %

0

0

NA

NA

-15%

800

800

155%

155 %

NA

-100 %

0

0

NA

NA

-11%

-15%

3805

4325

78%

89%

3282

3126

4160

District

total s

8864

8385

8377

1990

342

*

*

** Jefferson capacities are estimates

The West Region's needs are the most difficult to decipher, in part because the historical stability of its enrollment may be beginning to weaken and in part because it does not have many specialty schools to absorb students. In addition, the future impact of the fledgling International Newcomers Academy at Thomas Jefferson is difficult to predict.

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In 2008, the BAC cited crowding of the West Region's high schools in suggesting that the District revive a former plan for what was called the West Side Relief high school. The school had been planned as part of the original Master Plan of 2002 to, as the name indicates, relieve crowding in West Region high schools. The District purchased land on West 65th Street for the school but subsequently delayed the planned construction and then dropped the school from its plans.

Then, in July 2008, the District returned the school to its building plans as a 600-student school in Segment 5. However, the District Administration decided to build Segment 5's new Max Hayes Vo-Ed High School on the West 65th site and never acquired any other land for what became known as the West Side High School. Now, with architectural planning under way for all the other Segment 5 schools, the Administration wants to reconsider whether to build a West Side High. With that in mind, the projected range of West Region high school enrollment takes on added importance.

The 4,325-student high school capacity in the current Master Plan for the West Region would provide for about 165 more students than the high end of the probable enrollment range for the region and about 1,200 more than the low end of the range.

Rhodes, renovated in Segment 2, is still hosting more students -- 184 more -- than its OSFC-rated capacity. Lincoln-West is no longer overcrowded, thanks in large part to creation of the 9th-grade Academy at Jefferson. And John Marshall is no longer overcrowded, owing to formal establishment of a 9th-grade Academy at Carl Shuler and a rather sudden drop in overall enrollment.

The combined Marshall-Shuler enrollment has fallen from 1,990 two years ago to 1,504, a decline of 24 percent at a high school that has lost only 30 percent of its enrollment since 1998. The cause of the recent Marshall/Shuler enrollment decline is unclear.

Possible explanations include a delayed impact of the end of Cleveland's residency requirement for municipal employees, transfers to Thomas Jefferson, and transfers to other schools (parochial, charter, other districts) to avoid having to spend as much as three years in swing space during Marshall's construction. The swing space has been identified as Shuler and the Brooklawn K-8 augmented by modular classrooms, but that plan is now on hold.

Marshall's current enrollment of 1,162 calls into question whether the school needs to be built for 1,400. It does not seem appropriate unless the District has firm reason to believe that the recent decline is temporary or unless the District is not firmly committed to the Academic Transformation Plan's designation of Shuler as a 9th-grade academy. Otherwise, why not build a new Marshall for 1,100 or even 1,000? Indeed, some neighborhood residents urged at community meetings in 2008 that Marshall be built smaller. That would put the West Region's Master Plan capacity more firmly in line with the expected enrollment range.

Then there is the question of the planned 600-student West Side High School.

Marshall could be kept at the currently planned capacity if West Side High is eliminated, which would put the West Region within the expected range of enrollment for 2017-18. However, elimination of West Side High would leave students in some K-8

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neighborhoods four to five-plus miles from Marshall, their nominal neighborhood high school according to the Academic Transformation Plan.

The Transformation Plan shifted Booker, Alcott, Seltzer, Gallagher and Watterson-Lake elementary schools from the LincolnWest neighborhood to the Marshall neighborhood. Because the District acknowledges that its academic neighborhoods don't have firm boundaries, we won't argue the change except to note that four of those five elementary schools are closer to Lincoln-West. The fact is, these elementary schools are roughly three to five miles from either high school -- one of the arguments for a new West Side High located between the two.

Depending on its location, a West Side High might also ease a bit of the Rhodes crowding. Finally, some residents have noted that a West Side High could serve as the location of a specialty school, such as a STEM school or a school for advanced studies, to bolster the West Region's offerings of such alternatives, currently limited to Max Hayes Vo-Ed and the Garrett Morgan School of Science. A specialty school could be smaller, perhaps 400 students.

But, based only on enrollment, the conclusions for the West Region are that the creation of off-site 9th-grade academies for Lincoln-West and Marshall mean a strong case can no longer be made for a new West Side High -- IF the District is firmly committed to operating the academies for the foreseeable future and keeps Marshall at 1,400 students. And, if a West Side High is built, a strong case cannot be made for building Marshall for more students than it has now.

The two issues are related, and they are of such importance that the District should seek community input and then make firm plans before construction of Marshall begins. And, if it is decided to keep the plan for a West Side High, then the District must assemble the required real estate with all due haste.

These Segment 5 decisions, in turn, are related to future decisions on whether to boost Glenville's planned size or to revive the idea of a partial renovation at East Tech. Again, all of these issues deserve abundant public input. Waiting for the OSFC's new enrollment forecast, which should be available in fall 2012, is in an option, but not a particularly good one for the schools in Segment 5 in view of the risk of even higher energy prices, a major component of construction costs.

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Elementary schools

Collinwood neighborhood

Address

2010 Plan: Reno., Keep, Demo / Segmt.

1997 -98 ODE head coun t

Jan. 2008 CMSD head count

Feb. 2009 Feb. Jan. Jan. 2009 2011 2011 CMSD CMSD pct. head head chang count count e

1997-9 8 to Jan. 2011 pct. chang e

2008 Maste r Plan capacity

2010 Maste r Plan capacity

2008 Maste r Plan pct. of Jan. 11 count

2010 Maste r Plan pct. of Jan. 11 count

2010 MP excess / (deficit) of space for 2011 student s

PreK-8 Collinwood Computech

410

East Clark ES

885 East 146th St.

N-3

563

277

249

394

58%

-30%

450

450

114%

114%

Euclid Park

Ansel Rd.

N-4

477

277

249

334

34%

-30%

351

351

105%

105%

Hannah Gibbons

1401 Larchmont Rd. 44110

N-2

174

267

269

260

-3%

49%

351

351

135%

135%

Henry Longfellow

650 East 140th St. 44110

D-6

445

347

250

0

-100%

-100%

0

0

NA

NA

Iowa Maple

12510 Maple Ave. 44108 D-10

624

383

329

366

11%

-41%

350

0

96%

NA

!16

Kenneth Clement***

14311 Woodworth Rd 44112

Keep

299

125

153

187

22%

-37%

0

0

NA

NA

M.t Spellacy (Ginn)

655 East 162nd St. 44110

D-10

823

0

0

0

NA

-100%

0

0

NA

NA

Memorial

410 East 152nd St. 44110

N-1

249

504

513

513

0%

106%

631

631

123%

123%

Oliver H. Perry

18400 Schenely Ave. 44119

???

680

389

443

417

-6%

-39%

0

0

NA

NA

4744

2569

2455

2471

1%

-48%

2133

1783

86%

72%

K-8 Totals

(688)

As far as planned capacity is concerned, this neighborhood appears to be on target for the future, even if Iowa-Maple and Oliver Perry were eventually closed. Collinwood has lost 48 percent of its prek-8 enrollment since 1998, but the student population grew by 1 percent in the last two years. The 2010 Master Plan does not specify a fate for Perry.

East neighborhood Address

2010 Plan: Reno., Keep, Demo / Segmt.

Alexander G. Bell

11815 Larchmere 44120

D-10

BuckeyeWoodland Case

199798 ODE head count

Jan. 2008 CMSD head count

Feb. Feb. Jan. 2009 2009 2011 Jan. CMSD CMSD 2011 head head pct. count count change

1997-9 8 to Jan. 2011 pct. change

2008 Master 2008 2010 Plan Master Master pct. of Plan Plan Jan. capcap11 acity acity count

2010 Master Plan pct. of Jan. 11 count

2010 MP excess / (deficit) of space for 2011 student s

PreK-8 449

392

403

0

-100%

-100%

350

0

NA

NA

9511 Buckeye Rd. 44104 N-6

482

272

270

305

13%

-37%

350

450

115%

148%

4050 Superior Ave. 44103

756

536

447

451

1%

-40%

375

450

83%

100%

N-6

!17

Charles Orr (Early Childhood Cntr.)

9711 Lamont Ave.44114

D-10 Close

291

191

157

173

10%

-41%

0

0

NA

NA

Daniel Morgan

8912 Morris Court 44106

N-2

527

481

438

354

-19%

-33%

480

480

136%

136%

Harry E. Davis Middle

10700 Churchill Ave. 44106

D-10

620

0

0

0

NA

-100%

0

0

NA

NA

Harvey Rice

2730 East 116th St. 44120

N-3

786

266

235

459

95%

-42%

450

450

98%

98%

John Raper

1601 East 85th St. 44106

D-6

515

468

405

0

-100%

-100%

0

0

NA

NA

John D. Rockefeller

5901 Whittier Ave. 44103 D-10

516

250

246

0

-100%

-100%

0

0

NA

NA

Margaret Ireland

1800 East 63rd St. 44103

D-10

562

0

79

57

NA

-90%

0

0

NA

Mary Martin

8200 Brookline Ave. 44103

R-2

404

342

416

316

-24%

-22%

490

490

155%

155%

Mary Bethune

11815 Moulton Ave. 44106

R-2

490

361

348

388

11%

-21%

500

500

129%

129%

Sunbeam

11731 Mt.Overlook 44120

D-10

241

244

210

256

22%

6%

0

0

NA

NA

Wade Park

7600 Wade Park Ave. 44103

N-3

532

242

194

396

104%

-26%

501

501

127%

127%

Willson**

1126 Ansel Road 44108

N-3

438

0

0

393

NA

-10%

574

574

NA

146%

MLK Middle (half)

1651 East 71st St. 44103

Keep

255

0

0

0

NA

-100%

0

0

NA

NA

7864

4045

3848

3548

-8%

-55%

4070

3895

115%

110%

K-8 Totals

347

Even if Case or Buckeye-Woodland were closed, this neighborhood would have enough new schools built under the OSFC program to accommodate nearly all its current students. Yet neither is planned for closure. Case is scheduled replacement in the imminent Segment 6 with a 450-student new school; that's 75 more students than was provided by the 2008 Master Plan. And

!18

Buckeye-Woodland is scheduled for replacement in Segment 6 with a 450-student new school; that's 100 students more than were provided for by the 2008 Master Plan.

The District Administration has said Case and Buckeye-Woodland were increased to 450 students in order to provide 18 classrooms, 2 per grade, at each school. In addition, the Administration has said that the Buckeye-Woodland size was enlarged to take advantage of earlier land purchases that were made by a previous Administration. In view of the school's current enrollment of 305, this would seem to compound one ill-advised decision with another. The only justification for making Buckeye-Woodland that large that we can see would be the closure of Bolton in the nearby East Tech neighborhood.

As it stands, the current plan would give the East academic neighborhood 10 percent more classroom space than it needs in the near future (and probably much more later), even if Margaret Ireland, Sunbeam and the Early Childhood Development Center are closed. The neighborhood has lost 58 percent of its preK-8 students since 1998 and 12 percent in the last two years, which does not suggest that the District needs to plan for a surge in enrollment. We should note that Buckeye-Woodland is shown above in blue because it was previously designated as being part of the Adams academic neighborhood, which also does not need the extra student capacity.

The problem with overcapacity in the East neighborhood traces to other schools that were built too large for their current enrollments: Daniel Morgan, built for 480 students, has a current enrollment 354; Mary Martin, renovated for 490, has only 316; Mary Bethune, renovated for 500, has only 388; Wade Park, built for 501, has only 396; and Willson, built for 574, has only 393. There are no obvious solutions for remedying this overcapacity. One, busing students from nearby neighborhoods to fill the East schools, would be expensive from an operational standpoint. So it may be that Case and Buckeye-Woodland are needed to provide adequate geographic accessibility for the neighborhood's students, but it seems clear that reductions should strongly be considered for the Case and Buckeye-Woodland plans.

!19

East Tech neighborhood

2008 Feb. 1997-9 Master Feb. Jan. 2009 8 to 2008 2010 Plan 2009 2011 Jan. Jan. Master Master pct. of CMSD CMSD 2011 2011 Plan Plan Jan. head head pct. pct. capcap11 count count change change acity acity count

2010 Master Plan pct. of Jan. 11 count

Address

2010 Plan: Reno., Keep, Demo / Segmt.

Alfred Benesch

5393 Quincy Ave. 44104

D-10

541

0

0

0

NA

-100%

0

0

NA

NA

Anton Grdina

3050 East 77th St. 44104

N-4

716

547

532

366

-31%

-49%

540

540

148%

148%

George W. Carver

2201 East 49th St. 44103

N-4

383

426

435

346

-20%

-10%

450

450

130%

130%

Audubon

3055 MLK, Jr. Dr. 44104

D-6

703

496

443

0

-100%

-100%

0

0

NA

NA

Bolton

9803 Quebec Ave. 44106

D-10

457

369

369

436

18%

-5%

350

0

80%

NA

Dike

2501 East 61st St. 44104 ???

338

390

396

499

26%

63%

0

0

0%

NA

CSA Lower (*6-8)

Stearns Road 44106

Giddings

2250 East 71st St. 44103 Close

616

328

307

284

-7%

-54%

450

0*

158%

NA

Marion Sterling

3033 Central Ave. 44115

R-8

606

538

530

533

1%

-12%

490

490

92%

92%

Carl & Louis Stokes

2225 East 40th St. 44103

D-10

687

550

543

586

8%

-15%

450

0

77%

0%

MLK Middle (half)

1651 East 71st St. 44103 Keep

255

0

0

0

NA

-100%

0

0

NA

NA

5302

3644

3555

3239

-9%

-39%

2730

1705

84%

53%

199798 ODE head count

Jan. 2008 CMSD head count

2010 MP excess / (deficit) of space for 2011 student s

PreK-8

K-8 Totals

N-5

189

225

119%

(1534)

*Giddings was listed in the 2010 Master Plan for replacement for 350 students. It is listed here as zero because the District has elected to close the school.

!20

As far as planned capacity is concerned, this neighborhood appears to be on target for the future, though it may have been trimmed too much by the District's decision to close Giddings, which had been planned for replacement in Segment 8 under the 2010 Master Plan. Bolton and Stokes Academy provide safety valves should more space be needed, and it may be that one or the other will have to be returned to the Master Plan for co-funded replacement or renovation if overall neighborhood enrollment, which fell 9 percent in the last two years, should stabilize. The 2010 Master Plan does not specify what is to become of Dike.

Glenville neighborhood

1997-9 8 to Jan. 2011 pct. chang e

2008 Maste r Plan capacity

2010 Master Plan capacity

2008 Master Plan pct. of Jan. 11 count

2010 Master Plan pct. of Jan. 11 count

Address

Arthur Roth

12523 Woodside Ave. 44108

D-10/ close

655

343

299

304

2%

-54%

0

0

NA

NA

Empire

9113 Parmalee Ave. 44108

D-6

633

338

282

0

-100%

-100%

0

0

NA

NA

Glenville

??? 44108

N6

0

450

NA

NA

Franklin D. Roosevelt

800 Linn Drive 44108

R-2

639

324

360

613

70%

-4%

1115

1115

182%

182%

Forest Hill Parkway

450 East 112th St. 44108

D-5

536

402

360

0

-100%

-100%

350

0

NA

NA

Joseph F. Landis

10118 Hampden Ave. 44108

D-6

522

398

360

0

-100%

-100%

0

0

NA

NA

D-6

413

0

0

0

NA

0

0

NA

NA

D-4

338

274

213

0

-100%

0

0

NA

NA

1997 -98 ODE head coun t

Feb. 2009 Jan. 2011 pct. chang e

2010 Plan: Reno., Keep, Demo / Segmt.

Jan. 2008 CMSD head count

Feb. 2009 CMSD head count

Jan. 2011 CMSD head count

2010 MP excess / (deficit) of space for 2011 students

PreK-8

Louis Pasteur Charles Lake

9201 Hillock Ave. 44108

-100%

!21

Michael R. White

1000 East 92nd St. 44108

D-10

400

390

349

462

32%

16%

450

0

NA

NA

Patrick Henry

11901 Durant Ave. 44108

N-3

804

385

334

347

4%

-57%

450

450

130%

130%

Stephen E. Howe

1000 Lakeview Road 44108

D-6

456

0

0

0

NA

0

0

NA

NA

5396

2854

2557

1726

-32%

2365

2015

137%

117%

K-8 Totals

-68%

289

With the planned closing of Capt. Arthur Roth, the Glenville neighborhood will have only three elementary schools left, and one of those, Michael White, would eventually be demolished under the current Master Plan. But another school, designated as "Glenville," would be added in the imminent Segment 6 at a location that has not been disclosed yet. The three remaining schools -Glenville, Patrick Henry and Franklin D. Roosevelt -- would have 17 percent more combined capacity than the neighborhood currently needs and, given a 68 percent decline in enrollment since 1998 and a 32 percent decline in just the last two years, probably far more than it needs in the more-distant future.

The problem is Franklin D. Roosevelt, renovated in Segment 2 for 1,115 students but with an enrollment of only 613. Without busing from somewhere else, it does not appear FDR will come close to full utilization as a general preK-8. Given these facts, serious consideration should be given to whether the new Glenville school needs to be built and, if it does for geographic reasons, whether it can be reduced to the OSFC minimum capacity of 350.

Address

2010 Plan: Reno., Keep, Demo / Segmen t

1905 Spring Road 44109

D-10

Rhodes neighborhood

199798 ODE head count

Jan. 2008 CMSD head count

Feb. 2009 CMS D head coun t

Jan. 2011 CMSD head count

Feb. 2009 Jan. 2011 pct. chang e

1997-9 8 to Jan. 2011 pct. chang e

-2%

4%

2008 Maste 2008 2010 r Plan Maste Maste pct. of r Plan r Plan Jan. capcap11 acity acity count

2010 Master Plan pct. of Jan. 11 count

2010 MP excess / (deficit) of space for 2011 students

PreK-8 Benjamin Franklin

640

691

678

667

0

0

NA

NA

!22

3213 Montclair Ave. Charles A. Mooney 44109

???

1081

614

606

725

20%

-33%

650

0

90%

NA

Denison

3799 West 33rd St. 44109

N-7

757

707

712

617

-13%

-18%

720

720

117%

117%

William C. Bryant

3121 Oak Park Ave. 44109

R-7

391

502

449

350

-22%

-10%

600

600

171%

171%

William R. Harper

1468 West 98th St. 44102

N-9

516

0

0

0

NA

0

450

NA

NA

3385

2514

2445

2359

-4%

1970

1770

84%

75%

Totals

-30%

(589)

The relatively small Rhodes neighborhood would have three elementary schools under the current Master Plan, enough to accommodate 1,770 students, about 75 percent of the current enrollment. That appears to be a prudent plan, given the 4 percent drop in enrollment over the last two years. Benjamin Franklin provides a very large safety valve should enrollment stabilize. Otherwise, the plan calls for Franklin eventually to be demolished. Mooney was to have been a Segment 5 school under the 2008 Master Plan, but the June 2010 Master Plan provided for simply demolishing the school in Segment 5. The District has put the demolition on hold, and the school's eventual fate is undetermined.

!23

PreK-8 A.J. Rickoff

3500 East 147th St. 44120

N-1

490

604

572

504

-12%

D-6

580

0

0

0

NA

N-4

448

384

312

433

39%

D-4

563

0

0

0

NA

N-5

593

416

354

385

9%

Moses Cleaveland

D-4

547

0

0

0

Mount Auburn

D-6

456

0

0

Alexander Hamilton Charles Dickens

3552 East 131st St. 44120

Corlett Miles (Cranwood)

11918 Miles Ave. 44105

3%

720

720

143%

143%

0

0

NA

NA

450

450

104%

104%

0

0

NA

NA

450

450

117%

117%

NA

0

0

NA

NA

0

NA

0

0

NA

NA

0

0

NA

NA

-3%

-35%

Mount Pleasant

11617 Union Ave.44105

???

0

0

0

0

NA

Nathan Hale

3588 MLK, Jr. Drive 44105

N-4

754

367

333

412

24%

-45%

400

400

97%

97%

Paul Revere

10706 Sandusky Ave. 44105

N-7

672

481

420

508

21%

-24%

450

350

89%

69%

Robert Fulton

3291 East 140th St. 44120

D-6

510

316

284

0

-100%

-100%

0

0

NA

NA

Woodland Hills

9201 Crane Ave. 44105

D-10/ close

630

394

347

348

0%

-45%

450

0

129%

NA

6243

2962

2622

2590

-1%

-59%

2920

2370

113%

92%

K-8 Totals

(220)

The 2010 Master Plan eliminated a new Woodland Hills and reduced the size of Segment 7's Paul Revere from 450 to 350.

Even so, the Adams neighborhood is being planned for 92 percent of its current enrollment. That sounds like a recipe for unused space in the future, but geographically there may be no remedy. The problem is that A.J. Rickoff was built for 720 students in Segment 1, but it has only 504 students. The damage is done, and it cannot be rectified easily by building, say, Segment 5's Miles smaller, without running the risk of increased transportation costs.

!24

PreK-8 Adlai Stevenson

3938 Jo Ann Drive 44122 N-4

452

299

282

288

2%

-36%

450

450

156%

156%

Charles Eliot

15700 Lotus Drive 44128

D-10

728

326

336

466

39%

-36%

0

0

NA

NA

Cranwood

13604 Christine Ave. 44105

D-10

542

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

Emile deSauze

4747 East 176th St. 44128

close

475

356

319

284

-11%

-40%

450

0*

158%

NA

Whitney Young (2-8 )

17900 Harvard Ave. 44128

D-10

528

182

165

208

26%

-61%

0

0

NA

NA

Gracemount

16200 Glendale Ave. 44128

D-6

611

504

441

0

-100%

-100%

0

0

NA

NA

Robert Jamison

13905 Harvard Ave. 44105

N-4

747

586

522

442

-15%

-41%

450

450

102%

102%

4083

2253

2065

1688

-18%

-59%

1350

900

80%

53%

Totals

(788)

*DeSauze was listed in the 2010 Master Plan for replacement for 450 students. It is listed here as zero because the District has elected to close the school.

The District has decided to close Emile deSauze, which had been slated for replacement in Segment 7 under the Master Plan of 2010. That leaves the neighborhood as currently defined on a course to have space for only 53 per cent of its current students. That seems draconian, but the neighborhood did lose 18 percent of its students in the last two years and 59 percent since 1998. Eliot and Cranwood, which are planned for demolition in Segment 10 of the Master Plan, remain as safety valves in the meantime, and either or both could be returned to the construction plan if enrollment stabilizes. The District has spruced up Cranwood for use as a swing space school for Miles students during construction of their new school in Segment 5.

!25

PreK-8 Almira

3380 West 98th St. 44102

N-5

655

471

473

379

-20%

-42%

450

450

119%

119%

Artemus Ward

4315 West 140th St. 44135

N-3

361

428

449

470

5%

30%

450

450

96%

96%

Brooklawn

11801 Worthington 44111

D-6

369

317

278

0

-100%

-100%

450

0

NA

NA

H. Barbara Booker

2121 West 67th St. 44102

N-9

448

531

446

454

2%

1%

450

459

99%

101%

Carl Shuler (6-8 only)

13501 Terminal Ave. 44135

D-10

869

0

0

0

NA

0

0

NA

NA

Clara Westropp

19202 Puritas Ave. 44135

N-7

591

686

616

534

-13%

720

540

135%

101%

Douglas MacArthur***

4401 Valleyside Rd. 44135

Keep

261

96

165

228

38%

0

0

NA

NA

Garfield

3800 West 140th St. 44111

N-3

286

160

153

440

188%

54%

426

426

97%

97%

Louis Agassiz

3595 Bosworth Road 44111

D-10

430

337

347

352

1%

-18%

0

0

NA

NA

Louisa May Alcott

10308 Baltic Road 44102

R-5

238

212

233

239

3%

0%

192

226

80%

95%

Marion C. Seltzer

1468 West 98th St. 44102

R-9

684

641

590

534

-9%

-22%

423

423

79%

79%

McKinley

3349 West 125th St. 44111

N-7

459

340

308

308

0%

-33%

450

450

146%

146%

Nathaniel Hawthorne

3575 West 130th 44111

D-10

0

0

0

0

NA

0

0

NA

NA

Newton D. Baker

3690 West 159th St. 44111

D-10

622

478

458

514

12%

0

0

NA

NA

-10%

-17%

!26

Riverside

14601 Montrose Ave. 44111

3575 West 130th St. Robinson G. Jones 44111

N-1

415

530

554

529

-5%

27%

436

436

82%

82%

N-3

317

393

396

390

-2%

23%

450

450

115%

115%

Valley View***

17200 Valleyview .

44135

D-10

203

98

134

191

43%

-6%

0

0

NA

NA

Joseph M. Gallagher

6601 Franklin Blvd. 44102

N-8

1086

812

780

690

-12%

-36%

540

720

78%

104%

Watterson-Lake

1422 West 74th St. 44102

N-7

573

550

564

379

-33%

-34%

450

650

119%

172%

Wilbur Wright

11005 Parkhurst Dr. 44111

R-9

1180

632

607

573

-6%

-51%

0

720

NA

NA

10047

7712

7551

7204

-5%

-28%

3382

6400

47%

89%

Totals

(804)

Even with a 5 percent enrollment slide over the last two years, Marshall remains the District's most stable academic neighborhood, especially considering that a portion of the decrease was the result of nominally shifting schools (shown in green above) from the Lincoln-West neighborhood in the Academic Transformation Plan. The Marshall neighborhood is now planned for enough new or fully renovated schools to accommodate 89 percent of its current enrollment. The stability of the neighborhood enrollment suggests that this percentage is not too high.

If enrollment were to fall more sharply in the next few years, the plan certainly provides options for reductions, such as the new Gallagher and the new Wright, each planned for 720 students. It seems unlikely that at least two schools on the Segment 10 demolition list, Baker and Valley View, actually will meet that fate. On the other hand, it might make sense to move the small Valley View and MacArthur gender academies to larger schools in the neighborhood rather than continue to buy expensive modular classrooms to handle their growing enrollment.

!27

PreK-8 Buhrer

1991 Barber Ave.44113

N-3

445

443

447

332

-26%

-25%

350

350

105%

105%

Clark

5550 Clark Ave.44102

R-7

608

595

560

551

-2%

-9%

540

540

98%

98%

Garrett Morgan (K-8)

4016 Woodbine Ave. 44113

D-10

572

0

0

0

NA

NA

0

0

NA

NA

D-10

30

0

0

0

NA

NA

0

0

NA

NA

Halle (7-8 only) Kentucky

3805 Terrett Ave. 44113

D-10

443

0

0

0

NA

NA

0

0

NA

NA

Luis Munoz Marin

1701 Castle Ave. 44113

N-9

969

892

823

820

0%

-15%

720

540

88%

66%

Orchard

4200 Bailey Ave. 44113

N-5

596

593

537

371

-31%

-38%

450

450

121%

121%

P. Dunbar (Brooklawn)

2200 West 28th St. 44113

N-5

367

315

271

205

-24%

-44%

450

450

220%

220%

Scranton

1991 Barber Ave.44113

D-10

584

457

447

430

-4%

-26%

350

0

81%

NA

T. Jefferson (preK-8)

3145 West 46th St. 44102

N-4

1057

0

0

143

NA

-86%

785

195

NA

234%

Tremont

2409 West 10th St. 44113

D-10

932

456

470

522

11%

-44%

0

0

NA

NA

Walton

3409 Walton Ave. 44113 N-9

690

592

572

544

-5%

-21%

450

450

83%

83%

Waverly

1810 West 54th St. 44102

649

448

487

419

-14%

-35%

450

0

107%

NA

7942

4791

4614

4337

-6%

-45%

4545

3045

104%

70%

K-8 Totals

D-10

(1316)

As noted above, the Academic Transformation Plan shifted five schools from the Lincoln-West neighborhood to the Marshall neighborhood. In addition, it designated Thomas Jefferson, which was originally designed in Segment 4 to be a general preK-8 school for 785 students, as a 9th-grade academy and a K-12 International Newcomers Academy. It had a total of 558 students in January 2011, 143 of them in elementary grades. For purposes of our preK-8 analysis, we are treating the school as if it has a capacity of 265 students.

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The current plan to accommodate 70 percent of the neighborhood’s current enrollment in new schools in the year 2017 appears reasonable for now.

However, the stability of the enrollments at Marin and Tremont, and the 2010 Master Plan decision to scrap plans for a new Scranton, raise the question of where the students from Tremont would go to school if the District indeed demolished the school in Segment 10. The District said that it considered closing Tremont -- an old building that is far larger than currently needed -- at the end of the current school year as a cost-cutting move but decided against it. If enrollment in the east end of this academic neighborhood holds steady, then consideration ought to be given to a new, smaller Tremont.

Address

2010 Plan: Reno., Keep, Demo / Segmen t

Albert B. Hart

3901 East 74th St. 44105

D-6

849

374

408

0

-100%

-100%

0

0

NA

NA

Fullerton

5920 Fullerton Ave. 44105

Keep

422

374

398

401

1%

-5%

0

0

NA

NA

Miles Park

4090 East 93rd St. 44105

N-1

531

549

444

565

27%

6%

650

650

115%

115%

Mound

5935 Ackley Road 44105

N-4

491

317

248

253

2%

-48%

450

450

178%

178%

Union

6701 Union Ave. 44105

D-10/ close

401

243

272

254

-7%

-37%

0

0

NA

NA

Willow

5004 Glazier Ave. 44127

N-9

239

244

222

227

2%

-5%

450

350

198%

154%

Warner***

8315 Jeffries Ave. 44105

N-2

0

128

197

302

53%

570

570

189%

189%

2933

2229

2189

2002

-9%

2120

2020

106%

101%

South neighborhood

199798 ODE head count

Jan. 2008 CMSD head count

Feb. 2009 CMS D head coun t

Jan. 2011 CMSD head count

Feb. 2009 Jan. 2011 pct. chang e

1997-9 8 to Jan. 2011 pct. chang e

2008 Maste r Plan capacity

2010 Maste r Plan capacity

2008 Master Plan pct. of Jan. 11 count

2010 Master Plan pct. of Jan. 11 count

2010 MP excess / (deficit) of space for 2011 student s

PreK-8

Totals

-32%

18

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The District shifted Willow to the South academic neighborhood from the East Tech neighborhood in the Academic Transformation Plan, which is why Willow is shown in blue above. That move resulted in the Master Plan accommodating one percent more students in 2017 than the neighborhood has now. Eliminating Willow from the plan would yield a more reasonable 83 percent.

The District Administration has expressed a desire to build a new Willow for the OSFC minimum size of 350, even though the school has only 253 students, on grounds that it serves a geographically isolated area. Yet Willow school is only 1.25 miles from the new Mound that is to open this August. Inclusion of the Warner gender academy may skew calculations for this neighborhood, but it still seems that building a new school with planned overcapacity of 120 from day one would be ill-advised. Construction of Willow is not supposed to occur until Segment 9, so plenty of time remains to make a final decision.

Contact the BAC: You may reach the Bond Accountability Commission at bondaccountability@hotmail.com, or call (440) 781-8654.

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