Future Thinking: Digital Connectivity

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DIG ITAL CON NEC TIV I TY 1

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INTRODUCTION

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OBJECTIVES

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RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

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TREND FORECASTING

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WHAT IS DIGITAL CONNECTIVITY?

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THE DIGITAL SELF

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TREND DRIVER: TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCEMENTS FASHION INDUSTRY

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CONTENTS

TREND DRIVER: FEMINISM HEALTH & WELLBEING INDUSTRY

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TREND CONSEQUENCES: THE DISTRUST SOCIETY DIGITAL INTIMACY

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FUTURE THINKING

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1 Dominika Rekas N0696075 Word Count: 3,279

INTRODUCTION

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1 This report will explore the mega-trend of Digital Connectivity looking at the origins of the trend, the drivers, basic needs that fuel the trend and predictions of it in the future. Future Thinking will explore how the trend is manifesting itself in the Fashion, Beauty and Health & Wellbeing sector identifying the triggers of change and avenues of growth.

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OBJECTIVES

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Gain an understanding of where the digital connectivity trend originated from

Understand how the trend affects the consumer - including when it first emerged to how it has affected them till now

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Make an informed judgement on how the trend will evolve and what trend drivers are fuelling it

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RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

The report consists of secondary research dissecting the components of the trend. This research includes focus on the drivers, basic needs that it satisfies, the evolution of it and how it impacts the consumer.

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When analysing the trend and monitoring when it emerged, books were used to spot the first origins as well as how it advanced since then (see bibliography).

The evolution of the trend is explored through the trend drivers research.

Journalistic publications were used to look at industries using advanced technology and driving the trend as well as online databases such as WGSN & BoF, tracking the trend evolving and acknowledging the new revolutionary technologies used. For consumer behaviour, academic journals were used to understand the connected consumer, as well as other databases such as Business of Fashion (BoF) to further support the research. The power of influencers and their relationship with technology was also explored but also the future of them eg. the AI Fembots.

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One of the limitations is the lack of primary research which will be explored further in Stage 1.

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TREND TRACKING MICRO TREND As defined by Geraldine Wharry, a micro trend is a short-term development and lasts up to 3-5 years. It is longer than a seasonal trend or flash trend which lasts 6-18 months (Wharry, 2018). Micro trends are the key contributors to fast fashion, producing fads sold for a season then moved to another keeping the consumer spending.

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MACRO TREND

A macro trend will last 5 to 10 years. It encompasses many facets of what affects the fashion business and can be part of a Mega trend (those are up to 30 years long).

Macro trends feed the designers during the conceptualisation stages for Spring/ Summer or Autumn/Winter runway shows. They provide the seasonal/yearly zeitgeist for the fashion industry such as the maximalism trend adopted by the likes of Gucci around 2016.

1 MEGA TREND Euromonitor defines a mega trend as a longterm shift in behaviour or attitude with global impact across multiple industries.

(Boumphrey & Brehmer, 2017) Mega trends are predicted (or tracked) through indepth research of their origins, the drivers of the trend, how it effects the consumer as well as the industry.

The report will focus on the mega-trend of Digital Connectivity looking at the innovators curve; spotting the innovators (industry advancements), consumer early adopters, late majority & laggards, analysing each stage of the trend and how it impacts the society.

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WHAT IS DIGITAL CONNECTIVITY?

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“Digital transformations are a major determinant in contemporary realities, and the speed and multiplicity of them, as well as the extent of their reach into all aspects of sociocultural and political economic existence, are uniquely challenging at every level of personal and public life.” (Youngs, 2013 p.1)

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0 With the technological advancements developing since the dawn of personal computing, consumers have evolved to engage and network by creating communities online. The origins of the trend however start with Web 1.0 which then developed to 2.0 conceptualised by Tom O’Reiley, introducing a social platform that everyone could use and contribute to (Progressive Digital Media Technology News, 2008). The aim of it was to bring people together and have a consumer content depository of information.

The limitations then were that consumers didn’t trust the technology and thought it was “overhyped” as it seemed unnatural to share your life on the ‘big-wide-web’(O’Reilly, 2005).

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1 Nonetheless, in 2007 Apple introduced the new innovation ‘iPhone’ which put the smartphone into the hands of the masses and became a product and brand that consumers aspired to be a part of (Greengard, 2015). The technological advancements conditioned the consumers to join the sharing economy with the fear of missing out (FOMO) and develop their digital presence forming ‘The Digital Self’.

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“As of 2017, 45% of the global population uses the internet.

Euromonitor projects that 76% will have access to the internet by 2030” (Euromonitor, 2017)

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Millennials and Gen Z are entering a new wave of communication.

Digital connectivity satisfies the consumer’s basic needs of social interaction, connection and identity. Millenials and Gen Z being the digital natives have a constant need to communicate and gain social acceptance by their peers. The recent Channel 4 series ‘The Circle’ explores how people behave online when there is an incentive (£50 thousand) at stake, depending on who’s voted the most popular. Whether that’s showing the real you or pretending to be someone else, the unexpected winner Alex Hobern pretending to be his girlfriend, showed how consumers are driven towards digital personalities (The Circle, 2018).

The term ‘catfish’ is used describing people who fabricate online identities and entire social circles to trick people into emotional/romantic relationships. (Urban Dictionary, 2018)

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“It’s now about curating your digital portfolio and using online media sensitively in order to better facilitate IRL (in-real-life) relationships” (WGSN, 2016)

WGSN however argues that social media is becoming a platform for young people to grow and present their best selves.

This specifically is relevant for millennials when job searching with 79% of recruiters stating they look at social media platforms when hiring, and 79% saying they have hired someone through LinkedIn (The Guardian, 2018).

Millennials are using social media as an online CV becoming building their empire by becoming entrepreneurs online with 1 in 3 millennials considers themselves entrepreneurs. (Hysen, 2017)

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1 Netflix’s ‘Black Mirror’ episode ‘Nosedive’ where people rate themselves on social interactions - implimented in China by 2020 (Pettit, 2018)

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Artist John Yuyi’s social media tattoos

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TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCEMENTS

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The main driver for digital connectivity is the technological advancements. From the origins of the trend, Millennials and Gen X have grown up with technology by their side, helping them grow and fulfil their basic needs. The Internet of Things (IoT) has advanced everything that we 1 own from watches tracking our sleeping habits to tracking your pets exercise, accumulating masses of data. The argument of whether we should be connecting everything to the internet rises and questions the future of the trend.

Consumers are doubting this big data which is reflected in the legal sector through the GDPR law, meaning all business have to prove they have the right to own their databases (Schulz-Hofen,2018). Is it the consumers data or the businesses because they accessed it from the consumer?

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“IoT offers us opportunity to be more efficient in how we do things, saving us time, money and often emissions in the process.� (Reynolds, 2018)

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"The fact is, we cannot avoid the relationship between people and machine."

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1 There are positives of IoT nonetheless. Consumers are lazy by nature, and technology has had to develop with them to make their life easier by doing less (Horwell, Unknown). Research shows that consumers don’t seem to mind offering their data by connecting themselves physically to the internet. In Sweden around 4 thousand consumers have started to insert chips inside of their bodies. The technology uses RFID as seen in bank cards or passports meaning consumers can use their bodies to pay and access products or services they would normally need with objects (Cuthbertson, 2018).

This shows a glimpse into the potential advancements in the future as well as the consumer mindset.

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1 Another major change due to digital connectivity is the retail landscape. The process has shifted from visiting a brick and mortar store, trying on clothes and then making the purchase - to simply tapping your phone to then the product being delivered to your door the next day. This ease of use however questions the existence of physical retail spaces and further, whether Artificial Intelligence (AI) use such as self-scan tills will take over our jobs in the future. Ray Kurzweil however argues that AI is as a ‘brain extender’ assisting the human in their daily tasks, not something that is replacing us (Kurzweil, 2017).

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Company ‘Fetch’ makes robots for businesses to use in factories which move product to where they’re told, accompanying the human. Looking at this activity nonetheless it is possible that in the future the robots won’t need to be accompanied and could work on their own. In 2016, 62,000 jobs were lost due to the growth in online shopping and the increased use of automated cashiers (Mart, 2017) alongside other research stating that up to 30% of UK jobs could potentially be at high risk of automation by the early 2030s (Berriman, 2017). While looking at all this data, AI definitely poses a threat to humans in certain sectors however, with the advancements in digital connectivity it is possible that other jobs will emerge in the future making humans work hand-in-hand with AI and other technology, as the JW Thompson report suggests. (McGregor, 2017, pg 9)

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FASHION INDUSTRY

“Bloggers have now become part of the modern fashion establishment, bringing their readers into the closed ranks of the fashion industry and creating a powerful new trend influence as a result.”

(K.Bendoni, 2017 pg 68)

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THE NEW CELEBRITY

The emergence of fashion bloggers, also known as influencers, completely reshaped the digital strategies in the fashion industry specifically. ‘The girl next door’ type started collaborating with fashion houses, being gifted with products and ultimately be treated as the new celebrity. Digital connectivity has evolved this entrepreneurial spirit meaning anyone can be a digital influencer.

In 2015, Ferragni earned $8 million supported by her shoe business launched in 2010 (Forbes, 2015). Man Repeller is another example with Leandra Medine turning a personal blog to an online publication.

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The recent changes in influencers however, show that consumers are turning more towards visual content, with YouTube and Instagram pioneering.

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0 Benefit eyebrow product launch event featuring 90+ bloggers

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“The ‘outsider’s view’ has come to resonate better with fashion consumers than the exclusive outlook of traditional fashion magazines” (K.Bendoni, 2017 pg 68) 19

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THE INTELLIGENT INFLUENCER In 2016, the Instagram artificial intelligent robot (fembot) @lilmiquela, shared a photo of herself stirring up controversy as consumers believed it was a real person. Since then the fashion and beauty industry have noticed the influence of AI Influencers and started collaborating through digital campaigns turning them into aspiration figures eg. Balmain and Fenty Beauty (Kulp, 2018). The danger of this is the potential unrealistic body expectations that can build for the human consumer.

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1 Alongside these dangers there is also the socio-economic implications that the robots can implicate. The Trump supporter Fembot @bermudaisbae could potentially cause some political backlash from the statements made online due to unfavourable political stance.

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FEMINISM

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“Feminism has fought no wars. It has killed no opponents.

It has set up no concentration camps, starved no enemies, practiced no cruelties. Its battles have been for education, for the vote, for better working conditions, for safety in the streets, for child care, for social welfare, for rape crisis centres, women’s refuges, reforms in the law. If someone says, ‘Oh, I’m not a feminist’, I ask ‘Why? What’s your problem?” (Spender, 1985)

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The feminism trend, as covered in the media, is driving women empowerment, forming online communities and collaborations to support other women. Digital connectivity is giving women the platform to discuss inequality and share their stories. The origins of the trend however stared around 1960s. The Netflix documentary ‘Feminists, What Were They Thinking?’ outlines the stories of baby boomers living through the 1970s, telling their stories of inequality and labelling themselves as the original feminists (Feminists, What Were They Thinking?, 2018). In 2017 the cause resurfaced with the #MeToo movement which encouraged women to tell their stories of sexual harassment in the workplace, still very much true today a year later (Langone, 2018). In a survey conducted by Slater & Gordon in 2017, 28% (of 2,000) stated that there is a male predator colleague in their office that uses his position to prey on female staff (Slater & Gordon, 2017). The use of a hashtag in the movement created a sharable way for women to join the feminist revolution.

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1 1 One of the limitations for the advancement of the movement is the negative coverage of women inequality proving that not much has changed in the past year. In recent news the Brett Kavanaugh case showed a major step back for the feminism movement involving a then-Supreme-Courtnominee accused for a sexual assault crime 20 years ago. The case was eventually dismissed and Kavanaugh was given the position in court creating a fall back in the movement stating that men of high power will always be the more credible character (Sweetland-Edwards, 2018).

Either way, the coverage of the topic still propels the movement making the everyday person aware of its presence.

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HEALTH & WELLBEING INDUSTRY

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The feminism movement as a trend driver has infiltrated the health and wellbeing industry with new innovations advancing digital connectivity. Entrepreneurs are embracing the wave of positive women empowerment through new businesses, encouraging girl power and keeping the conversation around women in the mainstream media. This includes businesses innovating Fem tech such as ‘Flex’, enabling women to have sex while on their period or even ‘Thinx’, normalising periods through period-proof underwear. The trend is revolutionising the approach to women health discussing controversial topics, providing solutions and destigmatising them.

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It is trendy to be a feminist in 2018 but the question rises, is it a fad or a revolution to stay changing the foundations of businesses? Looking at the overall trend and its origins, it seems to be one that resurfaces every 2030 years lasting up to 10 years, depending on the momentum of the issue. Digital connectivity however has enabled the feminist movement to keep circulating providing a platform for people to share their stories, essentially expending the potential lifespan of the trend.

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TREND CONSEQUENCES

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The Distrust Society

Due to the growing digitalisation, distrust is emerging amongst the consumers resulting in a lack of loyalty to the brands. Long gone are the days when consumers blindly believe and trust brands that put out ingenuine messages. “60% of consumers say content from a friend or family member influences their purchases decisions, while just 23% say content from celebrities influenced their purchasing decisions.”

(Salim, 2017) We have evolved to question morals, motives and the truth behind brand messages including advertising and brand values. Recent Canadian research showed a 17-point drop of trust in Facebook over just a year due to the recent data privacy scandal it has faced.

[BBC, 2018] The research states distrust was consistent across all ages, gender and geography; however, the bias lies in the limitation of geographical exploration. The source doesn’t state anything about distrust levels across a wider geographical search validating the evidence.

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Nonetheless, brands are actively battling this distrust by communicating with their customers through more genuine messages and aligning themselves with meaningful causes.

In fashion, Tommy Hilfiger’s recent campaign celebrates strength in disability in a fashion film. The issue that rises with these types of campaigns however is how genuine the brand and if it shows through the whole business. Consumers believer the shift towards realness is inauthentic and tokenistic, hence only respond emotionally to ads which feel genuine and credible. Tommy Hilfiger’s alignment with the disability cause shows through the whole brand by making clothes with magnetic closures, adjustable hems, one-handed zippers, and velcro fastenings, making getting dressed an easier process to a disabled person (Pradella, 2018).w The beauty industry however is behind still selling the ‘hope in a jar’ messages as seen in recent L’Oréal Casting Creme Gloss campaign, featuring Cheryl Cole using exaggerated product claims and demonstrations such as ‘natural looking’ on a fully styled hairdo. Overall the research shows that the fashion industry is more successful, arguably ahead of the time, than beauty when aligning themselves with meaningful messages and causes.

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DIGITAL INTIMACY

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“Intimacy is being eroded by technology. But can we successfully forge close relationships across the digital divide?”(Reynolds, E. 2018)

1 Feeding this basic need of belonging and being accepted, digital connectivity provides an alternative way to communicate. The limitations however are the satisfaction of the basic need of intimacy, easily accessed by the extrovert who uses social media as an extension of their network, unlike the introvert who solely uses social media to communicate. So how does social media satisfy the need for intimacy in a world that’s purely digital? Reynolds (E.) discusses the benefits of being social, specifically using groups on Facebook and Whatsapp making consumers feel included.

Recent advancements show the use of voice messages across messaging apps, which users have stated to show a whole new level of intimacy. Unlike a written message which is flat and can’t be heard, voice messages “capture emotional nuances involved in speaking, but without the pressure of a full conversation. It’s an enrichment of a text message.” (Reynolds, E. 2018) Intimacy has also entered the digital world with the Netflix series ‘Maniac’ exploring the future through technological advancements. The story focused around a robot programmed to understand compassion eventually becoming depressed due to her human love dying and the implications of robots having feelings (Maniac, 2018).

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FUTURE THINKING

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Future Thinking has been the springboard to Stage 1, exploring Digital Connectivity which will inevitably lead to an in-depth study of an area of the report. While analysing the trend, the future of digital connectivity shows to be a disruptive one with consumers rebelling, questioning and standing up for their values. Social responsibility lies deep in the Millennial and Gen Z’s values which effects their digital personas and their ultimate beliefs, focusing their efforts on anything to make a change. Consumers are building their digital self though portraying a version of their personality, satisfying the basic need of acceptance and a want to be popular and liked. The question is whether that’s a different version of their personality or a true reflection? Does the online personality affect the offline personality?

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With the need for social responsibility, the re-emergence of feminism and ultimate diversity has given the consumer a cause to talk about and use their social presence to make a change in their communities. Digital connectivity and technological advancements are the back bone to these shifts of change, providing a platform for consumers – specifically the younger ones (Gen Z) to participate in their communities and make a change.

Brands have had to accommodate to this shift of inclusivity to keep up with the consumer demands. The change has however caused a shift in consumer loyalty as some campaigns have come across as unauthentic and merely jumping on the trend of inclusivity. Leading from this there is a rise of entrepreneurs from the Millennials and Gen Z providing authentic businesses basing their core values around a cause, standing out from the bigger brands providing inauthenticity.

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