DNV | KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT Vision & Strategy
roadmaps and scenarios
WINNING STRATEGIES IN A CHANGING WORLD
Roadmaps & Scenarios
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vision and strategy
ROADMAPS /// winning strategies in a changing world
“The middle of the road is where the white line is - and that’s the worst place to drive’’ Robert Frost
Why? Markets, products and services are constantly changing. Technology is developing at a global scale and at a rapid pace. Economies are global. Opportunities are abundant but at the same time pressure on costs, safety and quality is a reality for all organisations.
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Decision makers need to understand the relationships between shifting market and societal demands and enabling emerging technologies.
Investments in technology, product, organisation and market development need to be stepping stones on a road to realising a shared, longer-term strategic vision.
But how can we judge the future, create a vision and at the same time work on concrete activities today, without losing sight of the big picture?
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ROADMAPS /// winning strategies in a changing world
Roadmaps offer routes to navigate in a changing world
■ Roadmaps match long-term strategic goals with shorter-term, effective action plans and current project portfolios. The roadmapping process helps organisations to appreciate future developments, understand the importance of emerging technologies and to collaboratively identify enablers to underpin a shared vision. ■ Roadmaps specify pathways and milestones along the way for organisations to move from the space that they currently occupy to new, desired territories. ■ The roadmapping process is able to work with strategic time horizons that may vary from 3 to 30 years and offers both organisations, as well as entire industrial sectors, a way to align big-picture thinking with practical and grounded work. ■ Roadmapping is a powerful process providing stakeholders with a thorough understanding of how and when potential future developments will impact on markets, technologies and products. Roadmaps help to synchronise the results of external drivers and requirements with technology, product and service development lifecycles. ■ The roadmapping process fundamentally integrates vision elements across a number of interacting dimensions.
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Changing markets & competition
Rapid pace of technology change
Technology / product complexity
Forces of globalization
industry
Pressure on cost Regulation
High cost and risk of R&D Stakeholder demand for quick returns
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ROADMAPS /// winning strategies in a changing world
Roadmaps & Scenarios
Time periods
KNOW WHY
Market and societal drivers and requirements What are trends and drivers that we expect over the agreed period?
Market pull
What are key performance indicators that will guide our positioning in the future?
KPIs*
KPIs
KPIs
What is our vision on our future environment?
Product and service portfolios What are key product and service features and when should they be delivered to meet the external drivers?
KNOW WHAT
What are the features of our ideal product and service portfolio?
Supply chain design How should the supply chain evolve over time and what are its features to be able to generate the right market response?
KNOW WHO
How are we working together with suppliers and partners to deliver value to the market and society?
KNOW HOW
What is the mix of technologies and other enablers that has helped us move to the space we want to occupy?
Enablers (e.g. technologies, regulations, standards, education) What are key enablers that will realise timely delivery of envisioned product and service specifications?
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VISION
Action plans per period
Technology push
ROADMAP DIMENSIONS
*Key Performance Indicators 7
ROADMAPS /// winning strategies in a changing world
Roadmaps & Scenarios
KNOW WHY
KNOW WHO
KNOW WHAT
KNOW HOW It is important to be fully aware of existing and emerging technology alternatives and other enablers and to develop and exploit these across the timeline to realise product and service development aspirations. In particular, technologies and their readiness levels are projected onto the roadmap in order to synchronise market pull with technology push.
Having agreed a time horizon and milestone intervals for the roadmap, an analysis of external market and societal drivers and requirements is undertaken. Macro-economic and market trend data are taken into account to underpin the drivers. SWOT analyses are undertaken to be able to judge the organisation’s resilience in a changing world. If longer timescales are involved, future scenario building exercises may be required. Drivers are mapped for each milestone interval. Key performance indicators are identified that are later refined.
For each time period, key features of the organisation’s or sector’s products and services are specified and mapped. Often, product generations are mapped onto this roadmap dimension. Often, new business models are identified and the development of these models is mapped. The key performance indicators are refined.
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There is a need to identify what partnerships to develop and how to shape the supply chain to be able to collectively deliver value to the market. This roadmap dimension is particularly relevant for exercises at sectoral levels. Milestones and key developments are integrated into the roadmap.
TO DO
For each part of the planning period, an action plan is created, detailing all projects (existing and new) and activities that collectively form a programme of work to unlock the potential of the enablers in a timely manner (time-to-market).
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ROADMAPS /// winning strategies in a changing world
Success factors for roadmapping exercises
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■ ROADMAPS
ARE DEVELOPED FROM THE OUTSIDE IN. The thinking starts from
envisioning one’s future external environment. The thinking process should not be inhibited by today’s realities, but should be spurred by recognition and acceptance of external driving forces.
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■ COMBINE
ANALYSIS WITH CREATIVITY. To arrive at a result that is both rigorous as well as inspiring, the roadmapping exercise should seek to combine tools for out-of-box thinking with analytical approaches. Desk-based studies and quantitative analyses need to be complemented with personal interviews and group-based discussions.
■ BE
INCLUSIVE. Involve your own staff, your customers and partners. But also involve scientists, experts from other domains and sectors and visionaries. Heterogeneity breeds exceptional results.
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ROADMAPS /// winning strategies in a changing world
Success factors for roadmapping exercises
2030...
â– USE
process. Although a lot of detail is covered in any roadmapping exercise, one should never lose sight of the purpose of the roadmap: to provide a shared understanding of the road ahead for a product, a business or an industry. Visualisation of the interrelationships between market drivers and technology enablers, timelines and actions contributes to joined-up thinking and successful collaborative work.
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now
THE POWER OF VISUALISATION. Big picture thinking is essential to the roadmapping
future
â– DO
NOT LEAVE IT AT THE REPORTING STAGE. A roadmap is a living document to help coordinate activities and project portfolios and should be communicated consistently and frequently.
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ROADMAPS /// winning strategies in a changing world
Roadmaps & Scenarios
Clients who benefit from roadmapping include those that are responsible for:
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■ Corporate or sector strategy ■ New product and service development ■ Research and development ■ Sustainability ■ Programme management ■ Transition
DNV is a trusted party with a track record in supporting public and private organisations, consortia and sector to define strategic roadmaps. We offer a broad range of proven services that cover all aspects of the roadmapping process:
■ Define and manage roadmap projects ■ Design and facilitate roadmapping workshops ■ Execute SWOT analyses, process reviews, technology assessments and value chain analyses ■ Collect and analyse STEEP (Society, Technology, Economy, Ecology, Politics) data ■ Scenario development and scenario testing
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DO YOU KNOW THE ROAD AHEAD? For more information please contact Rob van der Spek, Director of Knowledge Management Advisory Services /// t +31 (0)6 54781900 /// e rob.van.der.spek@dnv.com, kmservices@dnv.com /// w www.dnv.com/knowledgemanagement