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AgriPost November 25 2022

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The AgriPost

Uncertainty Adds Higher Risk Even As Crop Prices Remain Historically High

Most crops still have a fairly tight balance sheet, even if we had a considerably better harvest in western Canada compared to 2021 according to Jonathan Driedger, LeftField Commodity Research. Submitted photo

By Harry Siemens Jonathon Driedger of LeftField Commodity Research in Hanover, MB said going into the winter months, farmers will see a bit more uncertainty than we have in many other years. The events in Ukraine, its shipping corridor can change causing prices to swing. In addition, uncertainty over Chinese demand and their COVID lockdowns will add to this price uncertainty. “We are setting up a range-

bound trade amid historically high values,” said Driedger. “Most crops still have a fairly tight balance sheet, even if we had a considerably better harvest in western Canada than in 2021. So a lot of that tightness in the markets is already priced.” While each crop has its own story, trading will be in a sideways range at values that are historically high. A natural comment that he hears is, “Oh, so farmers must be doing well.” Driedger

said there’s no question the prices are high and if yields are there, farmers are doing well. But also within that context costs are historically high. Even when yields and prices are good, that’s good for margins, but the cost of doing business increases risks for grain farmers. Driedger said while high fertilizer prices increase costs it starts to reflect on individual farm cropping decisions, as do crop prices, rotation, and a host of things that

impact that decision. He said the RussianUkraine grain movement deal is impressive so far. More has moved out than people thought might be the case he noted. Yet it’s good to remember how fragile that agreement could be he cautioned. It could stop and continue to provide uncertainty in these markets. “Certainly for our clients, we’re always a little cauContinued on Page 2...

November 25, 2022

Government of Canada Launches ASF Prevention and Preparedness Program Eligible organizations can now apply for funding under the Government of Canada’s African Swine Fever Industry Preparedness Program (ASFIPP). The $23.4 million program under Agriculture and AgriFood Canada (AAFC) is designed to help Canada’s pork industry prepare for the possibility of African Swine Fever (ASF) entering the country. Funding for the new program was set aside in August 2022 to support projects such as biosecurity assessments and improvements, wild pig management, the retrofit of existing abattoirs, sector analysis and ASF-related research projects. Applications from academic institutions, associations, businesses, Indigenous groups, and provincial/ territorial/municipal governments will be accepted until November 30, 2023, and the funding will be distributed over two years. Program information and details on how to apply can be found on AAFC’s website under Agricultural programs and services. The funding is a non-repayable contribution to projects that focus on biosecurity assessment and improvements including wild pig management, sector analysis, communication and engagement and African Swine Fever-related research projects. Eligible provincial/territorial/municipal government applicants may apply for funding up to 60% of total eligible costs and all other eligible applicants may apply for funding up to 85% of total eligible costs. ASF is a fatal swine disease that spreads through both direct and indirect contact with infected pigs, pork, and pork by-products. No case has ever been found in Canada. Since 2018, however, ASF has spread across parts of Asia, Europe, and the Caribbean. The ASF virus cannot be transmitted to humans, and is not a food safety risk. But a single case of ASF in Canada would immediately result in the closure of Canada’s borders to pork exports, which accounts for 70 per cent of Canadian pork production.


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AgriPost November 25 2022 by AgriPost - Issuu