Poush 18, 1420 Safar 28, 1435 Regd. No. DA 6238 Vol 1 No 278
WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 1, 2014 | www.dhakatribune.com | SECOND EDITION
The year of the snake
20 pages plus 8-page Treehouse and 48-page year-end special supplement | Price: Tk10
The special year-end supplement
Bleak outlook for economy in new year Continued political turmoil may lead to a collapse Sohel and n Kayes Asif Showkat Kallol Ali Azgar, a cauliflower grower from Narsingdi, said most of his harvest this year had rotten away unsold, for it could not reach the markets in absence of transportation amid all the political turmoil. “I am wondering how I will pay back the Tk20,000 bank loan. Maybe next year I will have to drive a rickshaw,” he said. Like Azgar, most of the economy is looking on to bleak economic prospects in the new year. Economists and market stakeholders have warned that the country might plunge into an economic downturn if the political turmoil continues for more than another two or three months.
P16 ECONOMY IN RETROSPECT They estimate that GDP growth might plunge below 5%, much lower than the budgetary projection of 7.2% for the current fiscal year and close to the International Monetary Fund’s forecast of 5.5% and the World Bank’s 5.7%. Bangladesh Bank has already revised down and said growth is likely to be between 5.7% and 6%. The fabric of the economy has already been shattered due to long spells of political violence and blockades, with all sectors facing losses. The economic slowdown means the country may face a multitude of problems, including financial sector collapse, increased unemployment and poverty, reduced growth and slow social development. “We are moving backwards fast. It looks bad for the economy,” said Ahsan H Mansur, executive director of economic think-tank Policy Research Institute. He said the country was on its way
GREETINGS The Dhaka Tribune family wishes a very happy New Year to all our readers, well-wishers, advertisers, and newspaper agents.
to lose what it had achieved since its independence. “This is the worst situation in terms loss of income, loss of opportunities and loss of life…everything,” he said. “No one is saying growth will be below 6% now. They are saying it will be below 5%, as there is no sign that the crisis will be resolved anytime soon. Politicians are beating around the bush.” Cultivation of the country’s largest crop, Boro, is facing a serious supply crunch of fertilisers and diesel. This could pose a serious threat for the country’s food security. Echoing Mansur, economist MA Taslim said if political turbulence continued for another one or two months, the GDP growth might drop below 5%. Production, consumption, supply chain, investment, export and import have already been badly hit by the political turmoil, he said. “But I am afraid that if the banking system collapses, whole economy might break down,” he said. Taslim, the chairman of Dhaka University economics department, said if the communications system continued to crumble, food prices would go further up, fuelling inflation. “I have never seen a worse situation since the independence,” he remarked. “We are not feeling the impact of the economic damage that the country has already suffered because of the economic strength we have built up since the 1980s,” Taslim said. The implementation of Annual Development Programme (ADP) would also definitely face setbacks, he added. Center for Policy Dialogue Fellow Debapriya Bhattacharya told the Dhaka Tribune that two decades of continued development and democratic management was facing a big risk this year and the economic crisis would deepen if the election took place. PAGE 2 COLUMN 1
A year full of political turmoil that has immensly affected the lives of commoners finally comes to an end. With chances of respite anytime soon looking bleak on the New Year’s Eve, people write down their resolutions and expectations for peace on a giant sheet of paper at a programme in the capital yesterday SYED ZAKIR HOSSAIN
Mozena visits ‘confined’ Khaleda n Mohammad Al-Masum Molla US ambassador to Dhaka Dan W Mozena yesterday paid a visit to “beleaguered” Leader of the Opposition Khaldea Zia who had been held in “confinement” since December 24 midnight. Mozena at his meeting with Khaleda underscored the “ever more urgent need for the parties to engage in serious dialogue immediately to find an agreed way forward to free and fair elections that are credible in the eyes of the Bangladeshi people.” The atmosphere around Khaleda’s house yesterday was a bit relaxed with no leaders and activists visible in the vicinity of her house. Even the number of lawenforcers, journalist and curious people was less than the last few days. At 3pm Mozena stepped in Khalea’s
One dies as non-stop blockade begins today n Ashif Islam Shaon The BNP-led opposition-sponsored non-stop blockade of rail, roads and waterways starts from 6am today, the New Year’s Day, with a vow to “resist the one-sided January 5 election.” The fresh agitation programme, which is the sixth in its kind since the election commission announced the polls schedule in November, was called Monday night following government’s use of excessive force to foil the opposition’s Dhaka march. A few district units of the BNP observed demonstration called by the party yesterday. Meanwhile, the local unit of the 18-party opposition alliance has called a 36-hour hartal beginning at 6am to-
day in Bogra, the home district of BNP founder late president Ziaur Rahman, protesting the “confinement” of BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia. Since November 26, the BNP-led 18-party alliance has enforced a nationwide blockade of roads, rail and waterways for 22 days in phases demanding the cancellation of the January 5 polls. More than 120 people lost their lives in violent clashes, arson, blasts and killing that happened almost every day in the previous back-to-back blockades. Yesterday, a victim of bomb blast Tuhin Chowkider, 38, succumbed to his injuries at Sher-e-Bangla Medical College and Hospital Barisal. Police said miscreants hurled the bomb when he was going to Dhakakandi PAGE 2 COLUMN 3
residence and held one-and-a-half hour-long meeting. At 3:05pm, BNP chairperson’s advisers Reaz Rahman and Sabihuddin Ahmed entered to accompany Khaleda.
‘The incidents on Sunday at the Supreme Court, press club and Dhaka University were most disturbing as they were contrary to the democratic process and must not be allowed to recur’ After the meeting neither Mozena nor BNP leaders briefed the media rather a representative from the US embassy issued a press release about the meeting issues. “He [Moznea] wanted to talk to you [media] but he could not due to unavoidable reasons. You understand…,” Syed Shahnawaz Mohsin, a media
official of the US embassy, told the reporters. The US envoy went to Khaleda’s residence just after a day of British High Commissioner to Dhaka Robert Gibson’s visit to Khaleda at her abode. In the press release, Mozena said the government should provide political space to the opposition and it was the responsibility of the opposition to use the space peacefully. “BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia and I [Mozena] discussed the democratic process, the responsibility that the government has to provide political space to the opposition so that it can freely express its political views, and the responsibility that the opposition has to use the space peacefully.” Mozena also said: “I noted that the incidents on Sunday at the Supreme Court, press club and Dhaka University PAGE 2 COLUMN 5
Hoisted by their own petard n Emran Hossain Shaikh
President Abdul Hamid and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina will not have the chance to cast votes in the January 5 polls, as the two constituencies they are voters of have got their MPs already elected uncontested. Hamid is a voter of Kishoreganj 4 constituency, comprising Itna, Mithamoin and Ashtagram upazilas of the district. The president is a voter of the Kamalpur village of Mithamoin. Hamid’s son Rezwan Ahmed Toufiq, an Awami League candidate, was elected member from the seat for the 10th parliament unopposed. Election Commission sources said Sheikh Hasina is a voter of Dhaka 10 constituency, comprising Dhanmondi and Hazaribagh. Sudha Sadan, the house owned by Hasina, is located PAGE 2 COLUMN 1