MPES 2010 JD Group

EXPERIENCE | EXCELLENCE | EXPERTISE

M E T R O

Real Estate Professionals You Can Count On For nearly the past decade, The JD Group has been one of Arizona’s leading residential real estate teams, specializing in North Scottsdale, McDowell Mountain Ranch and the surrounding luxury neighborhoods. Combined, The JD Group has brokered over $300 million dollars of luxury real estate assets.

Even more impressive, 90% of their clientele comes from client referrals – people who trust sending their friends, families and colleagues to The JD Group after witnessing The JD Group’s service firsthand. They not only believe that this area is one of the best places to buy and sell real estate, they also call it their home, which is vital when choosing an agent to represent you with your family’s single largest asset.

The JD Group consists of three real estate professionals from diverse backgrounds and with unique skill sets. When you hire The JD Group, you don’t get one real estate professional, you get a team with a common goal of providing the client with expert guidance and producing the best results in a timely fashion.

All three agents are also licensed attorneys in Arizona who practiced for prestigious law firms and real estate developers in the Valley and were entrusted with overseeing the details of multi-million dollar real estate deals on a daily basis. Exceeding expectations was a hallmark of their legal practice and sets them apart as the premier real estate services brokerage in Arizona.

• Proud to have brokered over 200 residential transactions over the past three years.

• The JD Group clients obtain the legal expertise of three attorneys in every real estate transaction.

• Represents some of the nation’s largest banks, including HSBC, M&I Bank, Bank of America and GMAC. • Their unique access to bank negotiators, asset managers and loan modification specialists has enabled them to successfully broker multiple short sales, loan mods, client purchases of bank assets at premium prices and even reduce principal loan amounts for clients.

• Client list includes national and local restaurant chains such as Garduno’s, Johnny Carino’s and McGrath’s Fish House.

The JD Group helps with their executive relocations and commercial expansion.

JEFF COBB

ANTHONY GRAFITTI 602.432.1128

480.294.1565

jcobb@3jdgroup.com

agrafitti@3jdgroup.com

thall@3jdgroup.com

480.213.6062

TODD HALL

HIRE THE JD GROUP TODAY!

If you are ready to sell and need the highest producing agents in your corner, or if you are ready to buy and need the most aggressive advocates on your side, give us a call today.

3JDGroup.com If your home is currently listed, this is not a solicitation for that listing.

P H O E N I X

2009 Sales Statistics for McDowell Mountain Ranch 1st Quarter

3rd Quarter

Total Sales Volume • $16,421,734 Avg. Sales Price • $513,179 Number Closed • 32

Total Sales Volume • $27,749,781 Avg. Sales Price • $554,995 Number Closed • 50

2nd Quarter

4th Quarter

Total Sales Volume • $25,239,200 Avg. Sales Price • $548,678 Number Closed • 46

Total Sales Volume • $20,023,800 Avg. Sales Price • $444,973 Number Closed • 45

Statistics gathered from ARMLS. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

(Single-Family Residences)

2009 Statistics By Community Community

Average Sales Price

Days On Market

List/Sell Price Ratio

The Metro Phoenix Housing Market Encouraging Facts & Figures

# Closed

Ancala.....................................$1,072,168................189................. 91%........................ 32 Bellasera.....................................$516,692................207................. 93%........................ 13 Boulders......................................$917,347................246................. 69%........................ 23 DC Ranch..................................$961,994................117................. 92%....................... 124 Desert Highlands....................$1,416,411................171................. 89%........................ 17 Desert Mountain.....................$1,690,472................246................. 85%........................ 72 Eagle Mountain.........................$722,298................149................. 89%........................ 29 Estancia...................................$1,775,182................351................. 78%........................ 10 FireRock...................................$1,372,646................235................. 87%........................ 28 Gainey Ranch........................$1,081,266................158................. 90%........................ 15 Grayhawk..................................$627,998................107................. 94%....................... 109 Hidden Hills.................................$504,822 ...............130................. 96%........................ 22 Ironwood Village.......................$340,526................133................. 95%........................ 45 Legend Trail................................$425,745................101................. 89%........................ 37 McCormick Ranch....................$523,651.................99.................. 93%........................ 24 McDowell Mountain Ranch.....$516,962................108................. 94%....................... 173 Mirabel....................................$1,051,194................270................. 88%........................ 30 Scottsdale Mountain................$652,633................146................. 92%........................ 35 Scottsdale Ranch......................$569,442................106................. 94%........................ 51 Sincuidados............................$1,103,750................211................. 90%......................... 8 Silverleaf..................................$2,234,424................233................. 88%........................ 25 Stonegate..................................$568,621................146................. 95%........................ 26 Terravita......................................$479,711................116................. 95%........................ 66 Troon North.................................$810,928................197................. 89%........................ 59 Troon Village..............................$797,481................151................. 91%........................ 30 Whisper Rock..........................$1,812,142................355................. 65%......................... 7 Winfield.......................................$548,409.................88.................. 94%........................ 11 Statistics gathered from ARMLS. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

(Single-Family Residences)

Produced by Desert Lifestyle Publishing • 480.460.0996 • www.DesertLifestyle.net

Economic Alphabet Soup

What Will Be The Shape Of Our Recovery?

Eight National Economic Forecasts

R E S I D E N T I A L R E A L E S TAT E What has 2010 brought us in the Greater Phoenix local housing market? Good news! While unemployment and distressed properties may still plague our area, the residential housing market has been picking up steam and is going strong!

G E N E R A L E C O N O M I C S N A P S H OT The last couple of years have been a rough ride for many Americans. Caught in the throes of a debilitating recession, households across the nation have been struggling with job losses, lower incomes and for many, the loss of their family home to foreclosure.

2010 brings not only a new year, but a new decade.

It’s a welcome harbinger of change in which many Americans rest their hopes for a fresh start and a better economic environment. Indeed, the economy appears to be improving.

WELCOME SIGNS OF A RECOVERY Most measures of economic activity have moved upward. Pending home sales saw year-over-year gains in every region of the US. Gross domestic product has turned positive after four quarters of decline.

Consumer spending is rising. Industrial production and manufacturing activity are posting gains. Construction expenditure is finally increasing. The labor market shows signs of stabilization and the stock market has made significant strides over the past several months.

Housing Sales of existing homes have shown encouraging growth throughout most of 2009 and into 2010. Low interest rates coupled with high affordability have aided the surge in home buying. The government’s First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit has played a large role in the housing market’s success. Near the end of 2009, the up to $8,000 tax credit for first-time buyers was extended into 2010 and an up to $6,500 provision for move-up buyers was added. Home buyers have jumped at the opportunity and some political insiders suggest that the Obama administration will extend the tax credits once again in mid-2010.

Labor Market The economy has lost 7.3 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007. With an unemployment rate over 10%, there is no doubt that the end of the recession hinges upon this critical indicator. While unemployment figures aren’t expected to decrease dramatically, the number of jobs lost and planned layoffs have begun to stabilize. Steven Wood, chief economist at Insight Economics said, “The magnitude of job losses has progressively diminished over the past eight months. If this trend were to continue, the job losses would end sometime early in 2010.”

Stock Market Since the crash and panic of late 2008 and early 2009, the stock market has shown encouraging growth. While the Dow Jones gained an impressive 20% in 2009 (the best annual gain since 2003), the bigger news is the 60% increase since its March 2009 bear-market low. Americans have breathed a collective sigh of relief as retirement funds and investment portfolios have recovered some of those severe losses.

REASONS FOR CAUTION While we’re seeing healthy signs of life in our economy, there are still many factors at play that bear caution. At the heart of it all lies employment. While the amount of job losses has slowed, we still cannot expect to have a “normal” economy when so many Americans are out of work.

While the residential housing market has shown vast improvements, the commercial sector is experiencing continued trouble. Vacancies are well above historical averages, demand for commercial properties is down, credit conditions are tight and the amount of distressed properties continues to grow.

The low mortgage interest rates we’ve seen may soon come to an end. Rates have been held down due to the purchase of mortgage-backed securities by the Federal Reserve. But the scheduled end of the Fed’s intervention in early 2010 will likely push rates up closer to 6% by the end of the year. Given that the projected level of 6% is still an extremely attractive rate, it doesn’t appear that potential home buyers will be dissuaded in making a property purchase.

A “shadow inventory” of homes on the verge of foreclosure has some economists worried that our housing market may lose many of the gains it’s seen in recent months. According to First American CoreLogic, a real estate research firm, approximately 1.7 million homes are currently distressed and could hold down real estate values for the next several years.

The good news is that many homeowners are now avoiding foreclosure through loan modifications and short sales. Further, First American CoreLogic estimates that nearly 30% of those 1.7 million distressed homes are actually already on the market.

So while it appears that there are several factors that could impede a complete economic recovery in 2010, the fact is that the US is in a better position today than in 2008 or 2009. We’ll take it!

National Economic Forecasts

A BANNER YEAR FOR SALES 2009 turned out to be the third best year on record for overall sales. Approximately 93,000 properties closed escrow. That degree of volume only lags behind our “boom years” of 2004 and 2005. It was a huge increase over 2008 – about 55% higher than the 60,000+ properties that sold that year.

Inventory levels have dropped significantly over the last year. At the end of 2009, the overall supply of homes was about 3.5 months, compared to 8.75 months at the end of 2008.

The overwhelming majority of those sales have been in the lower price points, namely $400,000 and under where there are multiple offers, bidding wars and final sales prices often coming in higher than list price. (See chart: Sales by Price Range.)

HOME VALUES STABILIZING The increase in sales volume has created a

Single-Family Homes | Metro Phoenix

ENERGY Crude averaging $75 a barrel in ‘10

RETAIL SALES A tepid 3% increase in ‘10 Source: kiplingerbiz.com

A BUYER’S PARADISE The current combination of affordable prices, low mortgage rates and the government home-buyer

2009 Maricopa County

Median Sales Price Number of Sales January...................................$130,000................................4,234 February..................................$127,780................................4,848 March......................................$120,000................................6,832 April........................................$117,500................................7,604 Under $400K • 93.7% May.........................................$121,500................................8,172 $400K - $1M • 5.3% $1M - $2M • .7% June........................................$130,000................................8,178 July.........................................$130,000................................7,887 $2M+ • .2% August....................................$130,000................................6,943 September..............................$135,527................................6,790 October...................................$134,900................................6,936 November...............................$136,000................................6,439 December...............................$134,900................................5,971

INTEREST RATES Prime at 3.25% to mid-’10 10-Year T-notes rising to 4%

UNEMPLOYMENT Peaking around 10.5% in early ‘10 Net yearly gain of 1 million jobs in ‘10

THE LUXURY MARKET While the overall housing market is recovering nicely, the luxury market is lagging. One of the biggest impediments to recovery is the lack of jumbo loan financing. Banks have been very limited in loan offerings at this price range and it’s continuing to affect price stability. It’s estimated that the luxury housing market will still see some price declines in early 2010 with a possible stabilization my mid-year. Already the environment is healthier. The Scottsdale $1M+ market now shows about a 24-month supply, down from a 60-month supply at the beginning of 2009. Paradise Valley has improved from a 28-month supply to just under a 13-month supply in that same time frame.

2009 SALES STATISTICS

TRADE DEFICIT Expanding to $530 billion in ‘10

HOUSING SALES 2009 was the bottom of the market

DISTRESSED PROPERTIES Homes fallen to foreclosure and pre-foreclosure short sales have been a sizeable portion of our local housing landscape. While these lender-owned and distressed sales have dragged down home values, the good news is that they are being snatched up by a hungry home-buying public. In fact, lender-owned homes made up the majority of sales in 2009. (See charts: Sales by Property Type.) By year end, short

sales had increased 2.5 times from year end 2008 and because banks are making the short sale process even easier, we can expect to see many more successful short sales in 2010. That bodes well on home values as the price per square foot for foreclosure sales tend to be lower than for a short sale.

SALES BY PRICE RANGE

GDP About 3% growth in ‘10

INFLATION About 2% in ‘10 after 2.5% in ‘09

stabilization and improvement in pricing. Home values hit a bottom-low in April of 2009 but have rallied strongly with a year-end 14.8% increase. (See chart: 2009 Sales Statistics.) According to The Cromford Report, a local real estate research firm, lender-owned sales hit their price bottom in late April 2009 and have been rising since; non-distressed “normal” sales hit their price bottom in mid-November 2009; and short sale prices are expected to have hit bottom in late 2009 or early 2010.

Annual appreciation has risen to -6% from a record low of -44.5% in April 2009. The Cromford Report estimates that if pricing stays at its current level or better, the annual appreciation will turn positive in the first quarter of 2010.

Under $400K • 93.7% $400K - $1M • 5.3% $1M - $2M • .7% $2M+ • .2%

Source: ARMLS. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Data maintained by ARMLS may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.

Source: ARMLS. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Data maintained by ARMLS may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.

2009

SALES BY PROPERTY TYPE Single-Family 2009 Homes _______ Metro Phoenix

2008

2008

2007

2007

“Normal” Non-Distressed • 28%

“Normal” Non-Distressed • 51%

“Normal” Non-Distressed • 95%

Short Sales • 15%

Short Sales • 6%

Short Sales • 4%

Lender-Owned • 57%

Lender-Owned • 43%

Lender-Owned • 1%

Source: The Cromford Report. All residential single-family dwelling types recognized by ARMLS are included.

For-sale-by-owner, auctions and other non-MLS transactions are not included. Land, commercial units and multiple dwelling units are also excluded.

“Normal” Non-Distressed • 28%

“Normal” Non-Distressed • 51%

“Normal” Non-Distressed • 95%

tax credits has created an exceptionally attractive environment for buyers. Fannie Mae’s 2010 forecast suggests that sales of existing homes should jump by another 10% with sales of new homes increasing by 26%. Dr. Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors says that sometime in the first half of 2010, the housing market should reach a “self-sustaining” point where prices are moving up moderately, and that buyer demand will remain strong.

According to a Barclays global survey, investors are planning to put more into real estate than what they plan to invest in stocks and bonds. Twice as many people with at least $800,000 to invest plan to increase their purchasing of real estate than those that plan to reduce it. Barclays’ survey predicts that real estate investment will rise to an average of 30% of these investors’ portfolios.

And why not? Investors are seeing better rates of return on purchases in 2009 and 2010 than any year since prior to 2000. Further, real estate has outperformed the DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ since 1990, even after the price adjustments we’ve experienced. Bottom line? Buy now!

RECOVERY

BY THE LETTER The worst of The Great Recession appears to be behind us. The question now is what type of recovery can we expect? Often, economic recoveries mimic the shape of letters. Here are four possible scenarios we may see:

U: The U-shape illustrates a bottoming out and a recovery that bumps along the floor for a while before the economy starts its upward climb again: A slow but steady recovery.

V: Here we see the lowest point followed by an immediate, robust recovery. Perhaps already unlikely given the indicators showing continuing economic troubles.

W: The W-shape would show a sharp decline followed by an immediate, strong recovery only to have the economy falter once again before finally normalizing. Many fear this “double-dip” recession scenario should there be a stock-market crash or a terrorist event.

L: This shape shows a flat economy after the bottoming out, never really recovering to the previous levels.

R E S I D E N T I A L R E A L E S TAT E What has 2010 brought us in the Greater Phoenix local housing market? Good news! While unemployment and distressed properties may still plague our area, the residential housing market has been picking up steam and is going strong!

G E N E R A L E C O N O M I C S N A P S H OT The last couple of years have been a rough ride for many Americans. Caught in the throes of a debilitating recession, households across the nation have been struggling with job losses, lower incomes and for many, the loss of their family home to foreclosure.

2010 brings not only a new year, but a new decade.

It’s a welcome harbinger of change in which many Americans rest their hopes for a fresh start and a better economic environment. Indeed, the economy appears to be improving.

WELCOME SIGNS OF A RECOVERY Most measures of economic activity have moved upward. Pending home sales saw year-over-year gains in every region of the US. Gross domestic product has turned positive after four quarters of decline.

Consumer spending is rising. Industrial production and manufacturing activity are posting gains. Construction expenditure is finally increasing. The labor market shows signs of stabilization and the stock market has made significant strides over the past several months.

Housing Sales of existing homes have shown encouraging growth throughout most of 2009 and into 2010. Low interest rates coupled with high affordability have aided the surge in home buying. The government’s First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit has played a large role in the housing market’s success. Near the end of 2009, the up to $8,000 tax credit for first-time buyers was extended into 2010 and an up to $6,500 provision for move-up buyers was added. Home buyers have jumped at the opportunity and some political insiders suggest that the Obama administration will extend the tax credits once again in mid-2010.

Labor Market The economy has lost 7.3 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007. With an unemployment rate over 10%, there is no doubt that the end of the recession hinges upon this critical indicator. While unemployment figures aren’t expected to decrease dramatically, the number of jobs lost and planned layoffs have begun to stabilize. Steven Wood, chief economist at Insight Economics said, “The magnitude of job losses has progressively diminished over the past eight months. If this trend were to continue, the job losses would end sometime early in 2010.”

Stock Market Since the crash and panic of late 2008 and early 2009, the stock market has shown encouraging growth. While the Dow Jones gained an impressive 20% in 2009 (the best annual gain since 2003), the bigger news is the 60% increase since its March 2009 bear-market low. Americans have breathed a collective sigh of relief as retirement funds and investment portfolios have recovered some of those severe losses.

REASONS FOR CAUTION While we’re seeing healthy signs of life in our economy, there are still many factors at play that bear caution. At the heart of it all lies employment. While the amount of job losses has slowed, we still cannot expect to have a “normal” economy when so many Americans are out of work.

While the residential housing market has shown vast improvements, the commercial sector is experiencing continued trouble. Vacancies are well above historical averages, demand for commercial properties is down, credit conditions are tight and the amount of distressed properties continues to grow.

The low mortgage interest rates we’ve seen may soon come to an end. Rates have been held down due to the purchase of mortgage-backed securities by the Federal Reserve. But the scheduled end of the Fed’s intervention in early 2010 will likely push rates up closer to 6% by the end of the year. Given that the projected level of 6% is still an extremely attractive rate, it doesn’t appear that potential home buyers will be dissuaded in making a property purchase.

A “shadow inventory” of homes on the verge of foreclosure has some economists worried that our housing market may lose many of the gains it’s seen in recent months. According to First American CoreLogic, a real estate research firm, approximately 1.7 million homes are currently distressed and could hold down real estate values for the next several years.

The good news is that many homeowners are now avoiding foreclosure through loan modifications and short sales. Further, First American CoreLogic estimates that nearly 30% of those 1.7 million distressed homes are actually already on the market.

So while it appears that there are several factors that could impede a complete economic recovery in 2010, the fact is that the US is in a better position today than in 2008 or 2009. We’ll take it!

National Economic Forecasts

A BANNER YEAR FOR SALES 2009 turned out to be the third best year on record for overall sales. Approximately 93,000 properties closed escrow. That degree of volume only lags behind our “boom years” of 2004 and 2005. It was a huge increase over 2008 – about 55% higher than the 60,000+ properties that sold that year.

Inventory levels have dropped significantly over the last year. At the end of 2009, the overall supply of homes was about 3.5 months, compared to 8.75 months at the end of 2008.

The overwhelming majority of those sales have been in the lower price points, namely $400,000 and under where there are multiple offers, bidding wars and final sales prices often coming in higher than list price. (See chart: Sales by Price Range.)

HOME VALUES STABILIZING The increase in sales volume has created a

Single-Family Homes | Metro Phoenix

ENERGY Crude averaging $75 a barrel in ‘10

RETAIL SALES A tepid 3% increase in ‘10 Source: kiplingerbiz.com

A BUYER’S PARADISE The current combination of affordable prices, low mortgage rates and the government home-buyer

2009 Maricopa County

Median Sales Price Number of Sales January...................................$130,000................................4,234 February..................................$127,780................................4,848 March......................................$120,000................................6,832 April........................................$117,500................................7,604 Under $400K • 93.7% May.........................................$121,500................................8,172 $400K - $1M • 5.3% $1M - $2M • .7% June........................................$130,000................................8,178 July.........................................$130,000................................7,887 $2M+ • .2% August....................................$130,000................................6,943 September..............................$135,527................................6,790 October...................................$134,900................................6,936 November...............................$136,000................................6,439 December...............................$134,900................................5,971

INTEREST RATES Prime at 3.25% to mid-’10 10-Year T-notes rising to 4%

UNEMPLOYMENT Peaking around 10.5% in early ‘10 Net yearly gain of 1 million jobs in ‘10

THE LUXURY MARKET While the overall housing market is recovering nicely, the luxury market is lagging. One of the biggest impediments to recovery is the lack of jumbo loan financing. Banks have been very limited in loan offerings at this price range and it’s continuing to affect price stability. It’s estimated that the luxury housing market will still see some price declines in early 2010 with a possible stabilization my mid-year. Already the environment is healthier. The Scottsdale $1M+ market now shows about a 24-month supply, down from a 60-month supply at the beginning of 2009. Paradise Valley has improved from a 28-month supply to just under a 13-month supply in that same time frame.

2009 SALES STATISTICS

TRADE DEFICIT Expanding to $530 billion in ‘10

HOUSING SALES 2009 was the bottom of the market

DISTRESSED PROPERTIES Homes fallen to foreclosure and pre-foreclosure short sales have been a sizeable portion of our local housing landscape. While these lender-owned and distressed sales have dragged down home values, the good news is that they are being snatched up by a hungry home-buying public. In fact, lender-owned homes made up the majority of sales in 2009. (See charts: Sales by Property Type.) By year end, short

sales had increased 2.5 times from year end 2008 and because banks are making the short sale process even easier, we can expect to see many more successful short sales in 2010. That bodes well on home values as the price per square foot for foreclosure sales tend to be lower than for a short sale.

SALES BY PRICE RANGE

GDP About 3% growth in ‘10

INFLATION About 2% in ‘10 after 2.5% in ‘09

stabilization and improvement in pricing. Home values hit a bottom-low in April of 2009 but have rallied strongly with a year-end 14.8% increase. (See chart: 2009 Sales Statistics.) According to The Cromford Report, a local real estate research firm, lender-owned sales hit their price bottom in late April 2009 and have been rising since; non-distressed “normal” sales hit their price bottom in mid-November 2009; and short sale prices are expected to have hit bottom in late 2009 or early 2010.

Annual appreciation has risen to -6% from a record low of -44.5% in April 2009. The Cromford Report estimates that if pricing stays at its current level or better, the annual appreciation will turn positive in the first quarter of 2010.

Under $400K • 93.7% $400K - $1M • 5.3% $1M - $2M • .7% $2M+ • .2%

Source: ARMLS. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Data maintained by ARMLS may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.

Source: ARMLS. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Data maintained by ARMLS may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.

2009

SALES BY PROPERTY TYPE Single-Family 2009 Homes _______ Metro Phoenix

2008

2008

2007

2007

“Normal” Non-Distressed • 28%

“Normal” Non-Distressed • 51%

“Normal” Non-Distressed • 95%

Short Sales • 15%

Short Sales • 6%

Short Sales • 4%

Lender-Owned • 57%

Lender-Owned • 43%

Lender-Owned • 1%

Source: The Cromford Report. All residential single-family dwelling types recognized by ARMLS are included.

For-sale-by-owner, auctions and other non-MLS transactions are not included. Land, commercial units and multiple dwelling units are also excluded.

“Normal” Non-Distressed • 28%

“Normal” Non-Distressed • 51%

“Normal” Non-Distressed • 95%

tax credits has created an exceptionally attractive environment for buyers. Fannie Mae’s 2010 forecast suggests that sales of existing homes should jump by another 10% with sales of new homes increasing by 26%. Dr. Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors says that sometime in the first half of 2010, the housing market should reach a “self-sustaining” point where prices are moving up moderately, and that buyer demand will remain strong.

According to a Barclays global survey, investors are planning to put more into real estate than what they plan to invest in stocks and bonds. Twice as many people with at least $800,000 to invest plan to increase their purchasing of real estate than those that plan to reduce it. Barclays’ survey predicts that real estate investment will rise to an average of 30% of these investors’ portfolios.

And why not? Investors are seeing better rates of return on purchases in 2009 and 2010 than any year since prior to 2000. Further, real estate has outperformed the DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ since 1990, even after the price adjustments we’ve experienced. Bottom line? Buy now!

RECOVERY

BY THE LETTER The worst of The Great Recession appears to be behind us. The question now is what type of recovery can we expect? Often, economic recoveries mimic the shape of letters. Here are four possible scenarios we may see:

U: The U-shape illustrates a bottoming out and a recovery that bumps along the floor for a while before the economy starts its upward climb again: A slow but steady recovery.

V: Here we see the lowest point followed by an immediate, robust recovery. Perhaps already unlikely given the indicators showing continuing economic troubles.

W: The W-shape would show a sharp decline followed by an immediate, strong recovery only to have the economy falter once again before finally normalizing. Many fear this “double-dip” recession scenario should there be a stock-market crash or a terrorist event.

L: This shape shows a flat economy after the bottoming out, never really recovering to the previous levels.

EXPERIENCE | EXCELLENCE | EXPERTISE

M E T R O

Real Estate Professionals You Can Count On For nearly the past decade, The JD Group has been one of Arizona’s leading residential real estate teams, specializing in North Scottsdale, McDowell Mountain Ranch and the surrounding luxury neighborhoods. Combined, The JD Group has brokered over $300 million dollars of luxury real estate assets.

Even more impressive, 90% of their clientele comes from client referrals – people who trust sending their friends, families and colleagues to The JD Group after witnessing The JD Group’s service firsthand. They not only believe that this area is one of the best places to buy and sell real estate, they also call it their home, which is vital when choosing an agent to represent you with your family’s single largest asset.

The JD Group consists of three real estate professionals from diverse backgrounds and with unique skill sets. When you hire The JD Group, you don’t get one real estate professional, you get a team with a common goal of providing the client with expert guidance and producing the best results in a timely fashion.

All three agents are also licensed attorneys in Arizona who practiced for prestigious law firms and real estate developers in the Valley and were entrusted with overseeing the details of multi-million dollar real estate deals on a daily basis. Exceeding expectations was a hallmark of their legal practice and sets them apart as the premier real estate services brokerage in Arizona.

• Proud to have brokered over 200 residential transactions over the past three years.

• The JD Group clients obtain the legal expertise of three attorneys in every real estate transaction.

• Represents some of the nation’s largest banks, including HSBC, M&I Bank, Bank of America and GMAC. • Their unique access to bank negotiators, asset managers and loan modification specialists has enabled them to successfully broker multiple short sales, loan mods, client purchases of bank assets at premium prices and even reduce principal loan amounts for clients.

• Client list includes national and local restaurant chains such as Garduno’s, Johnny Carino’s and McGrath’s Fish House.

The JD Group helps with their executive relocations and commercial expansion.

JEFF COBB

ANTHONY GRAFITTI 602.432.1128

480.294.1565

jcobb@3jdgroup.com

agrafitti@3jdgroup.com

thall@3jdgroup.com

480.213.6062

TODD HALL

HIRE THE JD GROUP TODAY!

If you are ready to sell and need the highest producing agents in your corner, or if you are ready to buy and need the most aggressive advocates on your side, give us a call today.

3JDGroup.com If your home is currently listed, this is not a solicitation for that listing.

P H O E N I X

2009 Sales Statistics for McDowell Mountain Ranch 1st Quarter

3rd Quarter

Total Sales Volume • $16,421,734 Avg. Sales Price • $513,179 Number Closed • 32

Total Sales Volume • $27,749,781 Avg. Sales Price • $554,995 Number Closed • 50

2nd Quarter

4th Quarter

Total Sales Volume • $25,239,200 Avg. Sales Price • $548,678 Number Closed • 46

Total Sales Volume • $20,023,800 Avg. Sales Price • $444,973 Number Closed • 45

Statistics gathered from ARMLS. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

(Single-Family Residences)

2009 Statistics By Community Community

Average Sales Price

Days On Market

List/Sell Price Ratio

The Metro Phoenix Housing Market Encouraging Facts & Figures

# Closed

Ancala.....................................$1,072,168................189................. 91%........................ 32 Bellasera.....................................$516,692................207................. 93%........................ 13 Boulders......................................$917,347................246................. 69%........................ 23 DC Ranch..................................$961,994................117................. 92%....................... 124 Desert Highlands....................$1,416,411................171................. 89%........................ 17 Desert Mountain.....................$1,690,472................246................. 85%........................ 72 Eagle Mountain.........................$722,298................149................. 89%........................ 29 Estancia...................................$1,775,182................351................. 78%........................ 10 FireRock...................................$1,372,646................235................. 87%........................ 28 Gainey Ranch........................$1,081,266................158................. 90%........................ 15 Grayhawk..................................$627,998................107................. 94%....................... 109 Hidden Hills.................................$504,822 ...............130................. 96%........................ 22 Ironwood Village.......................$340,526................133................. 95%........................ 45 Legend Trail................................$425,745................101................. 89%........................ 37 McCormick Ranch....................$523,651.................99.................. 93%........................ 24 McDowell Mountain Ranch.....$516,962................108................. 94%....................... 173 Mirabel....................................$1,051,194................270................. 88%........................ 30 Scottsdale Mountain................$652,633................146................. 92%........................ 35 Scottsdale Ranch......................$569,442................106................. 94%........................ 51 Sincuidados............................$1,103,750................211................. 90%......................... 8 Silverleaf..................................$2,234,424................233................. 88%........................ 25 Stonegate..................................$568,621................146................. 95%........................ 26 Terravita......................................$479,711................116................. 95%........................ 66 Troon North.................................$810,928................197................. 89%........................ 59 Troon Village..............................$797,481................151................. 91%........................ 30 Whisper Rock..........................$1,812,142................355................. 65%......................... 7 Winfield.......................................$548,409.................88.................. 94%........................ 11 Statistics gathered from ARMLS. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

(Single-Family Residences)

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